www.wmo.int WMO-No. 993

Climate knowledge – for the benefit of society

andPreventing

mitigatingdisasters

natural

For more information, please contact:

World Meteorological Organization

7bis, avenue de la Paix - P.O. Box 2300 - CH 1211 Geneva 2 - Switzerland

Tel.: (+41) 22 730 83 14 - 730 83 15 - Fax: (+41) 22 730 80 27

E-mail: cpa@wmo.int - Website: www.wmo.int

PPhhoottoo ccrreeddiittss::

E. Al-Majed, Météo-France, Kyoto News/Japan,

NOAA, FAO/G. Diana, South Australia Metropolitan Fire Service, ICRC, DigitalGlobe, ISDR, Randy Williams.

Despite our efforts, we were unable to identify the photographers of some of the photos.

Their photos have been included in the belief that they would want to share their work with WMO.

Working together for a safer world

Preventingand

disastersnatural

mitigating

WMO-No. 993© 2006, World Meteorological OrganizationISBN 92-63-10993-1

NOTEThe designations employed and the presenta-tion of material in this publication do notimply the expression of any opinion whatso-ever on the part of the Secretariat of the WorldMeteorological Organization concerning thelegal status of any country, territory, city orarea, or of its authorities, or concerning thedelimitations of its frontiers or boundaries.

CONTENTS

FOREWORD . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2

INTRODUCTION . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3The story of challenge and survival begins … . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4

COPING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS: FOUR-PHASE NATIONAL ACTION PLANS . . 6Preparedness phase . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8Mitigation phase: long-term planning for the community . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15Response phase: how the community “weathered” the weather hazard . . . . . . . . 17Recovery phase: cleaning up, rebuilding, and getting ready for the next one . . . . 18

PLANNING AND PREPARATION FOR DIFFERENT TIME SCALES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Tornadoes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20Droughts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 21Seasonal to interannual prediction of hazards . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22

PLANNING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCIES AND CLIMATE CHANGE . . . . 25Climate change and weather extremes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26

BEING PREPARED SAVES LIVES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28An example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28Taking responsibility . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28The need for worldwide collaboration for monitoring the weather . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Investing in safety . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 30Getting the warnings out . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32Investing in your Weather Service pays off . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 32The danger passed . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34

1

Every day, we hear and read of death, injuryand destruction caused by, or related to,weather, climate and water events. In thisday and age, with advances in technology,computer capability and communication—especially the tools developed for watching,understanding, predicting and communicat-ing the world’s weather and associated earlywarnings—how and why does this stillhappen? Is there something more that canbe done?

At the highest levels of government, therehave been repeated calls to address naturaldisasters that hamper sustainable develop-ment and accentuate poverty among themost vulnerable nations and sectors of soci-ety. These have been echoed at recentinternational conferences, including theWorld Summit on Sustainable Development(Johannesburg, South Africa 2002), the UNConference on SIDS (Mauritius, 2005), theWorld Conference on Disaster Reduction(Hyogo, Japan, 2005) and the UN WorldSummit (New York, 2005).

WMO and the National Meteorological andHydrological Services (NMHSs) of its187 Members have been at the forefront ofdisaster mitigation through the operation ofa 24-hour, seven-day a week, year-roundsystem for monitoring and predicting theweather and for disseminating the forecastsand warnings of phenomena such as tropi-cal cyclones, flood, drought, tornadoes,lightning and associated events such asmudslides, locust development and inva-sion, and impacts on health. In order tofocus global attention and promote disasterpreparedness and prevention, WMO hasdedicated Word Meteorological Day 2006 todisaster mitigation. This Day is celebratedon 23 March each year to commemorate theentry-into-force of the WMO Convention onthat date in 1950.

One of the major goals of WMO, NMHSs,and their systems, programmes and activi-ties and their partners in disaster-preventionand mitigation communities is to reduce thenumber of deaths, injuries and damagecaused by severe weather, climate and waterevents. They give individuals, decision-makers and other partners the informationthey need for awareness building, planning,preparedness and, when necessary, forrecovery and rehabilitation efforts. In thisway, WMO also promotes partnership in aglobal effort to save lives and to protecthuman livelihoods and well-being and theenvironment.

This year, WMO would like to propose adifferent story from the ones so oftenmaking the headlines—one in which thehuman element takes centre stage. It is astory of confidence, planning, empower-ment, positive action and hope. It isreflected in this booklet, dedicated to makedisaster mitigation a reality. I am thankful toMr Michael Allaby and to various othercontributors to the booklet.

I encourage all to become involved, as indi-viduals, families and communities, to workwith their respective NMHSs and disaster-prevention and mitigation bodies to beinformed, to be prepared—and to be safe.

2

Michel Jarraud,Secretary-General of

WMO

... be informed,

be prepared ...

be safe

FOREWORD

(M. Jarraud)Secretary-General

The World Meteorological Organization iswell known for its scientific and technicalexpertise in watching, understanding,predicting and analysing the Earth’sweather, climate and water and forcommunicating this information to everycountry around the world in near-real time.This vigilance, every hour and day of everyyear, and the global-scale internationalcooperation that has developed amongstall countries over decades allows theNational Weather Services of WMO’s 187Member countries to generate reliable andtimely information on the state and likelyevolution of the weather. This informationforms the basis of all early warnings for thesafety and protection of people and theirwell-being and the environment.

Weather, of course, is part of everyday life, anatural part of the Earth’s climate system.While it is often benign, from time to timeand in almost any part of the world, it can beviolent, in the form of cyclones, high winds,tornadoes, thunderstorms and heavy rain-,snow- or ice storms, or in associated eventssuch as storm surges, floods, mud- or land-slides, duststorms, forest fires andavalanches.

The destructive power of such hazards canrange from personal injury to large-scalemortality, property and infrastructuredamage, to regional-scale socio-economicand environmental impacts: people andcommunities can and do suffer, physically,economically and emotionally. Over longperiods, even non-violent manifestationssuch as droughts can have extremely seri-ous socio-economic and environmentaleffects. No part of the world is immunefrom hydrometeorological hazards of onesort or another. Recent statistics haveshown that about nine out of 10 of themany natural disasters experienced around

the world are related to weather, climate orwater.

A number of studies suggest that weather-related disasters appear to be growing morefrequent. However, the scientific evidencefor a significant long-term increase in thefrequency or severity of certain hydro-meteorological hazards is not yet clear.There is also the need to recognize thevulnerability of a community, country orregion to various hazards. Vulnerability is afactor of preparedness and socio-economicconditions, including population density,

3

Weather, climate andwater hazards causethe great majority ofnatural disasters.

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

0

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12

10

8

6

4

2

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Billi

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Developed nations Least developed nations

Economic Iosses Losses as percentageof GDP

In the last decade,developing countriesshouldered a muchgreater share of theimpact on theireconomies than theirdevelopedcounterparts (Munich Re).

INTRODUCTION

Avalanches and

landslides 6% Droughts and famines 9%

Earthquakes 8%

Extreme

temperatures 5%

Floods 37%

Windstorms 28%

Volcanic

eruptions 2%

Forest/scrub

fires 5%

4

availability of resources to invest in disastermitigation and proximity to hazard-proneareas. Vulnerability can change over time,as can the capability to learn of and recorddisasters in remote areas.

That said, there is little doubt that the social,economic and environmental costs ofweather- and climate-related disasters arerising. The burden falls most heavily on thedeveloping and especially the least devel-oped countries, where repair, recovery andrehabilitation divert resources that mightotherwise be devoted to national social andeconomic development.

WMO’s mandate includes addressing thechallenges of understanding and predictingweather-related hazards. WMO recognizesthat saving lives and preventing disastersrequire partnerships. WMO, through itsinternational activities and through NationalWeather Services, is reinforcing its outreachto work ever more closely with disasterprevention and mitigation experts, decision-makers, citizens and the media.

The task of WMO and the National WeatherServices involves developing and sharinginformation on natural hazards, ensuringthat the disaster-management community,decision-makers and the public understandthe risks posed by these hazards andrecognize the onset of hazardous weatherand its impact on safety and survivalprocedures.

Research remains a cornerstone for under-standing and refining the accuracy offorecasts with longer lead-time for issuingreliable warnings. The Organization is alsoactively engaged in enhancing the under-standing of the potential impacts of climatechange.

By working together, positive action toprepare for, respond to and recover from,weather-related hazards will be ensured.This is an upward-spiralling helix: as acommunity begins to cope with the

hazards, to reduce and increasingly toprevent the damage that harms develop-ment, the community gains strength,grows and improves its chances to buildup resistance and remain safe.

On World Meteorological Day 2006, WMOproposes a story of confidence, planning,empowerment, positive action and hope—adescription of how the cycle of information,preparedness, survival and progress shouldwork. This story is set in a tropical villageprone to cyclones. The village is confident,informed, organized and ready to face thechallenge of the weather. The story couldapply to anyone, anywhere in the world,because in this village are local citizens,visiting businessmen, tourists and otherswho find themselves in the path of violentweather in a place far from home. The vitalcontributions of WMO and the NationalWeather Services to all components of thiscycle are presented throughout, for acomplete and integrated picture.

The story of challenge and survivalbegins …

Soon after midnight, the edge of the tropi-cal cyclone came screaming ashore. Thecommunity had been following the warn-ings through the media for the last threedays. The villagers and staff and guests inthe tourist resort complex a few kilometresdown the road, had spent hours reviewingthe safety procedures, hoarding food,medicines and other basic necessities,boarding up windows, securing tools,equipment, boats and vehicles, and secur-ing roofs. Livestock were moved upland toenclosures where they would be betterprotected from falling trees, flying debrisand floodwaters. Emergency supplies hadbeen brought into the school where thevillagers were riding out the storm. Theyhad worked hard but, even though theywere exhausted, the tension of waiting andthen the sheer force of the wind and rainmade sleep close to impossible.

5

Driven by wind of more than 180 km/h,sheets of rain and blowing debris lashed thevillage for hours. The community listened tothe weather warnings on the radio andknew when the eye of the cyclone wouldpass close by, creating a temporary lull inthe violent winds and rains. When the stormabated enough and the Weather Serviceconfirmed that the immediate danger hadpassed, those sheltering in the schoolrushed out, eager to see how well theirproperty, as well as the staff and visitors atthe tourist resort, had weathered the storm.

Inevitably, in a storm of this magnitude,there had been a few minor injuries andsome property damage. Crops were flat-tened as they had borne the brunt ofeasterly winds and then, after a couple ofhours after the passage of the eye, thewinds from the west. However, most of thelivestock were safe; the tools and equip-ment with which the villagers earned theirliving were undamaged; there were storesof food and water to use during the clean-upprocess; and no one had died or been seri-ously injured.

Life could go on.

This story shows the steps that carried thisvillage through the hazard of the cyclonewith such security. The role of WMO and theNational Weather Services in each stage ofthe process will be described, as will thoseof our partners, including the citizens them-selves.

While this story has a tropical setting, andthe hazard in this case is a cyclone, the fullsuite of weather-related hazards that havethe potential to cause serious socio-economic damage somewhere in the worldwill be touched upon. Where a person lives(or visits for work or recreation) will deter-mine which of these hazards will be faced.While specific details of preparation, recov-ery, response and planning will vary,according to the location and the nature ofthe hazard (tropical cyclone, tornado or

drought) the steps described are goodgeneral guidance for coping with hazards ofany sort.

Natural hazards posea threat tocommuntiesworldwide. Much canbe done, however, asthis booklet sets outto describe, to ensurethat their inhabitantswill be able to rideout the storm insafety and return totheir peaceful,everyday lives.

6

Emergency planning and response requirescollaboration and coordination from inter-national and national to local levels.National Weather Services identify andmonitor potential hazards and issue warn-ings and thus play a critical role inpreventing a hazard from developing into adisaster. This, however, is but one compo-nent of the much larger “system” that mustbe in place to prevent and reduce disasters.

The details of such systems vary somewhatfrom one country to another but, when theyare organized efficiently, the emergencyplan is clear and unambiguous, the warn-ings arrive in time and are reliable; peopleare informed and ready for action; lives andlivelihoods can be protected.

Implementing a plan for dealing with anemergency involves government depart-ments and agencies at every level, from thenational government in the capital to localcommunities, from local police to fire andhealth and social services. It is essential tothe success of the plan that each of thesebodies has clearly defined authority and

responsibility. Ideally, the plan and theseresponsibilities should be defined by legis-lation in order to remove all possibleambiguities and to impose on each body anenforceable duty to play its part.

National Action Plans should have fourcomponents: mitigation; preparedness;response; and recovery with the NationalWeather Service playing a crucial role:

• Mitigation involves identifying thevulnerability of every part of the coun-try to particular types of hazards, andidentification of steps that should betaken to minimize the risks. Thesesteps can include modifying buildingcodes to ensure that buildings canwithstand high winds, forbiddingbuilding on land that is prone to flood-ing and identification of evacuationprocedures. Once enacted, regulationsmust be strictly enforced. Mitigation, inessence, is long-term planning andinvolves government at many levelsincluding NMHSs, emergency servicesand the military, but also relief agen-cies such as the InternationalFederation of Red Cross and RedCrescent Societies. In the mitigationphase, all partners in the NationalAction Plan will determine what toolsand personnel they will require, whattraining to offer, what outreach prod-ucts must be prepared and distributedto the communities in the country.

• Preparedness also involves the widercommunity. Citizens must be educatedabout the nature of the hazards theyface and how to recognize and respondsafely to them. They will become famil-iar with the way in which their NationalWeather Service and emergency serv-ices communicate information on, and

The four phases of aNational Action Planwith the community

as the focus of allactions

COPING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS: FOUR-PHASE

NATIONAL ACTION PLANS

7

warnings of, severe weather.Individuals and families will havepersonal action plans, lists of emer-gency supplies to have on hand and aclear understanding of coordinatingtheir own safety.

Citizens must also know how best tocooperate with each other and with theemergency services. Carrying out exer-cises and drills will expose any sourcesof confusion or deficiencies in the waythat information is disseminated. Eachcommunity will refine its local planaccording to its particular circum-stances and will consider contingencyplans in case any aspect of the emer-gency plan fails for some unforeseenreason (e.g. a fuel shortage just prior to

a storm may leave emergency vehiclesstranded). NMHSs, emergency serv-ices, health and social services, reliefagencies, etc., all have a role to play inensuring a community is prepared toface a hazard.

• The response phase of the planinvolves the implementation of themeasures developed during the mitiga-tion and preparedness phases. TheNational Weather Service will provideup-to-the-minute weather advisoriesand warnings. Emergency, health andsocial services, volunteers and citizenswill all have their own parts of the over-all plan to enact, and willsystematically and calmly set aboutensuring the safety of the community.

HOW WMO CONTRIBUTES TO NATIONAL ACTION PLANS FOR COPING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS

Through the internationally coordinated network of the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs), WMO:

• Monitors the weather over land and oceans, including potentially severe conditions, and predicts theevolution of all weather systems;

• Uses its specialized communications systems to ensure relevant information (data, satellite images,forecasts, warnings and other products) reaches all NMHSs in a timely manner;

• Ensures consistent data quality and data accessibility across national boundaries for the purpose ofimproving risk management capabilities within a regional and subregional framework, including devel-opment and coordination of global observing systems;

• Provides expert advice and technical support to vulnerability assessment, risk-mapping and formulat-ing action plans on managing disaster risk;

• Collaborates in and sets standards for the training of NMHS staff to make sure they are able toaddress effectively the needs of their countries for weather, water and climate information;

• Provides a wide range of educational products and services to increase public awareness of thecauses and consequences of natural hazards. In partnership with emergency services, health andsocial services, relief agencies, etc., WMO contributes to development of information and advice onhow to prevent and mitigate the impacts of weather-, climate- and water-related hazards.

8

• Recovery comprises the steps takenafter the event to repair the damageand reconstruct communities. All part-ners in the Action Plan will assess howwell the plan worked, its strengths andweaknesses and will also begin theprocess of revising the plan for greatersuccess the next time. The NationalWeather Service will continue toprovide its usual services—the hazardmay have passed this community, butwill now likely be affecting a neigh-bouring area whose inhabitants areenacting their own Action Plans.

Preparedness phase of an effectiveaction plan

The villagers had survived a tropicalcyclone. Also known in different parts of theworld as hurricanes or typhoons, they arethe biggest and amongst the most violent ofall storms. They develop in the tropics andsubtropics over warm ocean waters, butthey move with the circulation of the atmos-phere and can bring gales and torrentialrain to places as far from the tropics asCanada and northern Europe.

The villagers survived the cyclone becausethey were prepared. They had an emer-gency plan. Everyone knew what to do. And

because their National Weather Serviceforecast the storm and warned that it wascoming, the villagers had time to takeappropriate action.

Several days before the cyclone arrived, themedia broadcast weather advisories fromthe National Weather Service on the proba-bility of a major storm for the region, andgave advice for personal and communityprotection. “Make sure you know the emer-gency plan,” the broadcasts urged.

Access to a radiothrough a programme

such as RANET cansave many lives.

RANET is aninternational

collaboration, guidedand supported byNational Weather

Services. Its missionis to make weather,climate, and related

information moreaccessible to remote

and resource-poorpopulations.

This information aidsthese populations in

making day-to-dayresource decisions

and in preparingagainst natural

hazards.

RANET combinesmodern technologies

with appropriateapplications and

partnerships at thecommunity level.

LEVELS OF WARNINGS OFAPPROACHING HAZARDS

The precise nature or scale of warning usedvaries from country to country. Generally, thefollowing three levels are common:

• An advisory informs people within a desig-nated area of probable weather orhydrological conditions that could lead tohazardous situations, but they are not yetsevere enough to move to the next stage ofalert. People should take note of an advisoryand be aware of any change in conditions.

• A watch alerts the public of the possibility ofa particular hazard and provides as muchinformation as is available on its intensity anddirection. Such forecasts are issued well inadvance of a weather event such as acyclone, when conditions are suitable for thedevelopment of severe conditions. When awatch is announced, people should takesteps to prepare to protect their lives andproperty. Depending on the circumstances,they may need to prepare for evacuation.

• A warning is a forecast of a particular hazardor imminent danger issued when extremeconditions have developed and are occurring,or have been detected. It is time to takeappropriate action.

9

“Everyone has a part to play. Be preparedand you will survive.”

When the warning reached its next level—acyclone “watch”—people in the villagebegan to act, gathering their emergencysupplies (food and water, medical supplies,blankets, radios, flashlights, etc.), makingsure they had the materials needed tosecure their property. Then, a weatherwarning was issued for the area: the

cyclone was on its way, and would bedangerous. Regular activities were aban-doned and school lessons ended. Since theschool had been selected as the emergencyshelter, desks and other school equipmentwere pushed to one side to make space forpeople and supplies. The school’s windowswere boarded up and the roof securedagainst the coming winds. Local authoritiesand volunteers alerted the community andvisitors, ensuring that everyone was aware

WMO’S SPACE-BASED SURVEILLANCE

A ring of geostationary satellites above the Equator provides regular images of the globe between lati-tudes 65°N and 65°S, at more or less 30-minute intervals. The space-based constellation also includespolar-orbiting satellites and a number of research-and-development environmental satellites.

This array of operational and research satellites provides almost continuous observations of manyaspects of the Earth’s weather and a picture of the evolution of climate—the march of the seasons andthe development of anomalies that lead to drought, floods and heat waves.

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Dor

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P

INSATs(India)83°E

35 800 km

850 km

SUBSATELLITEPOINT

GOMS (Russian Federation)

76°E

MSG(EUMETSAT)0°Longitude

ENVISAT/ERS-2METEOR 3M N1SPOT-5

METEOR 3M (Russian Federation)

AquaQuickScatTRMM

FY-1/3 (China)

GMS-5/MTSAT-1R (Japan)

140°E

FY-2/4(China)105°E

Metop(EUMETSAT)

NPOESS(USA)

GPMADEOS IIGCOM

GOES-R(USA)75°W

METEOSAT(EUMETSAT)

63°E

GOES-R(USA)135°W

TerraNPPJason-1Okean series

COMSAT-1(Republic of Korea)

120°E

Other R & Doceanographic,land use,atmospheric chemistryand hydrological missions

10

of the warning, the danger and the emer-gency plan. Lists were made of who wouldneed to take refuge in the school, as well asat the tourist resort and other public loca-tions during the storm.

Finally, when all was ready, the designatedmembers of the community at risk headedfor the school with their emergencysupplies. The head teacher stood at theschool door and marked off the names aseach person entered, so that when thedoors were closed and barred, no one whoneeded shelter had been left outside at themercy of the storm.

The emergency action plan the villagersused provided detailed instructions that

were simple to understand and practical fortheir preparations against the storm. A criti-cal part of the effectiveness of this part oftheir plan was the series of weather fore-casts issued by the Weather Service. Theseforecasts were accurate, clear, readilyunderstandable and timely. The villagersrelied on them as they came from the offi-cial source, the National Weather Service.

What warnings are provided to help in the

preparedness phase?

In the case of dangerous storms such astropical cyclones, meteorologists first issuean advisory when it seems probable thatsevere conditions will develop. A storm

WMO GLOBAL OBSERVING SYSTEM

The Global Observing System is a fundamental component of WMO programmes and services. Data arecollected from 16 satellites, hundreds of ocean buoys, aircraft, ships and some 10 000 land-basedstations. Within countries, the National Weather Service makes observations using manned and auto-matic instruments of temperature, precipitation, wind speed and direction, atmospheric pressure andother characteristics of the “weather”. The observations, forecasts and products developed from thesedata are sent around the world every day, using the Global Telecommunication System.

The data are processed, and forecasts are made at World Data Centres (WDCs), and at 40 RegionalSpecialized Meteorological Centres. The WMO Global Data-processing and Forecasting System ensuresthe cooperation of these and national centres to routinely provide analyses and forecasts, particularlythose warning of severeweather, to National WeatherServices all over the worldvia the Global Telecom-munication System.

Every day, WMO distrib-utes more than 50 000weather reports, severalthousand weather charts,and many other products ontime scales of minutes toseasons ahead in digitalform. Weather Services thendevelop and provide earlywarnings adapted to localconditions and needs fortheir countries.

NMS

SATELLITESOUNDINGS

SATELLITEIMAGES

GEOSTATIONARYSATELLITEPOLAR

ORBITINGSATELLITE

WEATHERRADAR

UPPER-AIRSTATION

SATELLITEGROUNDSTATION

SURFACESTATION

AUTOMATICSTATION

OCEANDATABUOY

WEATHERSHIP

AIRCRAFT

The weather forecastsissued by the

National WeatherService are a vital

element of a nationalpreparedness plan.

11

“watch” is put in place a day or two beforethe Weather Service expects the storm toarrive. This allows individuals and commu-nities to prepare, by checking theavailability of emergency supplies and otheritems they may need to protect their livesand property.

When a severe storm is no more than24 hours away, the Weather Service gener-ally issues a more precise warning for theareas that will be at risk. At this stage,people are urged to secure their propertyand to move their families and emergencyprovisions into the place where they willwait for the storm to pass.

While the warning is in effect, people areadvised to keep their radios and televisionsswitched on and tuned to the local station,to listen for sirens or street announcementsand to watch for flags or other signs used intheir community for warnings. In somecases, people may be advised to leave thearea completely. They will need to be alertfor instructions on evacuation proceduresthat will come into effect.

How much ahead of time can the

community be warned?

The time-scale of warning for tornadoes willbe of the order of minutes to hours and fordroughts could be months to seasons.

In the case of tropical cyclones, meteorolo-gists can usually predict fairly accuratelytheir arrival 48-72 hours ahead, allowingtime for emergency plans to be put in effect.This is due to the fact that large storms arewatched from space by satellites as well astracked through land- and ocean-basedobservation programmes. Some emergen-cies, however, develop much more quicklythan others and, on occasion, the status ofan event can change quickly. These factorsaffect the amount of advance warningcommunities can be given, but WeatherServices strive continually to provide the

longest lead times possible for any weather-related hazard.

How do WMO and Weather Services

observe and predict tropical cyclones?

Instruments carried on orbiting weathersatellites maintain a continual watch on thewhole atmosphere. Every day, their radiotransmitters feed huge volumes of data toreceiving stations on the ground. The digitalimages from satellites show cloud forma-tions, which help meteorologists identifyweather systems, including isolated storms,storms linked together in squall lines, andlocal disturbances that may develop intotropical cyclones. Sequences of satelliteimages indicate the evolution, including thedirection and speed, of the moving storm.Data, such as wind speed and direction andmoisture profiles are used to indicate theseverity of conditions that may be experi-enced at the Earth’s surface.

Meteorologists regularly release weatherballoons into the atmosphere (twice a day atmany sites around the world). Theseballoons carry instrument packages thatenable the measurements of temperature,humidity, wind speed and direction andatmospheric pressure. Observations of

Meteorologistsmonitor tropicalcylones and forecasttrack and potentialconditions at landfallby satellite, hurricanehunter planes andsmall, light but robustunmanned aircraftcalled Aerosondes.

12

atmosphere, land and ocean characteristicsare also made by surface land stations,ships and ocean buoys.

Radar is also used to study storms. Radarscanning produces an image of a weathersystem, and its distance is calculated fromthe time that elapses between the trans-mission of the radar pulse and the receipt ofits reflection. Radar images show the amountof moisture clouds contain and the type andintensity of precipitation coming from them.

Specially built research aircraft, withcomputer workstations for scientists, canprovide more detailed information aboutconditions at different heights inside largestorm systems. These aircraft have suffi-cient range to reach storms in remoteregions, and are strong enough to survivesevere horizontal and vertical currents,sometimes moving at 150 km/h or more,and the rapid accumulation of ice on theaircraft’s surface.

All these observations help meteorologistsunderstand the current behaviour of theatmosphere. The information is fed into globaland regional computer models that predictthe evolution of the storm systems. WMOcoordinates the exchange of information: the

observed data from all sources and theoutput of all forecast centres are exchangedamong National Weather Services andspecialized centres.

WMO, through National Weather Services,operates six centres that specialize in tropicalcyclone forecasting, in Honolulu, La Réunion,Miami, Nadi (Fiji), New Delhi, and Tokyo. Theirscientists track the tropical cyclones, forecasttheir movements, and alert national WeatherServices of their approach. The centres issuecontinually updated bulletins and forecasts ofapproaching storms and distribute them viathe Global Telecommunication System to theNational Weather Service of the countrieslikely to be affected. These Weather Servicesthen have the responsibility to issue warningsto the authorities, the local communities atrisk and the public.

How is the community warned of the

danger approaching?

First of all, the Weather Services send vitalinformation quickly to partners in disasterprevention—by phone, fax and Internet—andthe Weather Services and their partnerstogether warn the public. Warning informationcomes from a single official source, the

Hurricane Committee

Tropical Cyclone Committeefor the South-West Indian Ocean

Tropical Cyclone Committee for the South Pacific

and South-East Indian Ocean

ESCAP/WMO TyphoonCommittee

WMO/ESCAP Panelon Tropical Cyclones

RSMC TokyoRSMC

New Delhi

RSMC Reunion

RSMCNadi Centre

RSMC MiamiRSMC

Hawaii

ESCAP = Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN)RSMC = Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre

WMO’s six regionaltropical cyclonewarning centres

Radar is also used tostudy storms.

13

National Weather Service. In some coun-tries, the dissemination of weatherwarnings is under the authority of thenational Civil Defence or emergency serv-ices, but the National Weather Serviceserves as the unique source of warnings. Itis extremely important that all thoseinvolved in facing and responding to a natu-ral hazard receive and act on officialweather and water information from theWeather Service, to ensure that everyone isusing the same information, and that theadvice received is the best available.

The media are a vital partner in the commu-nication of advisories, watches andwarnings, and broadcasters will interruptradio and TV programmes to warn of anapproaching hazard. Not everyone will havea radio or television, however, and emer-gency plans have to account for that. In somecommunities, loudspeaker vans tour thestreets, telling people to prepare. In otherplaces, sirens are sounded or signal flagsmay be raised. Storm cones have been usedfor centuries in some parts of the world.These are made from canvas and covered intar to make them rigid. They are raised onflagpoles to warn of an approaching wind-storm: the position of the cone indicates thedirection and intensity of the wind.

What are the characteristics of an effective

forecast or warning?

• Accurate: the forecast must be accurateregarding the onset and intensity of theweather-related hazard, and thegeographic area likely to be mostaffected, so that the National WeatherService and emergency authorities canjudge potential impacts in its path. Sinceforecasting involves an element of prob-ability, it is important that the forecastinformation provided to emergencyservices and government decision-makers includes discussion of anyuncertainties, so that they will under-stand how to deal with them effectively.

• Clear and understandable: the informa-tion in the forecast or warning must beclear, understandable and unambigu-ous to the extent possible about theexpected phenomenon and the risks toperson, community and property.

• Available to all: the forecast or warningmust be disseminated to all affectedpersons and groups, including thoseunable to receive television, radio orthe Internet.

• Reliable and timely: over time, theWeather Service must work with theusers of its services to develop trust inthe products and must deliver theseservices when and as often as needed.The user must be prepared to act whena warning is issued.

• Authoritative: there must be one clearand recognized authority for officialwarnings of weather-related hazards;the media and partners participating inaddressing the hazard must not createor broadcast conflicting information.

Storms are trackedclosely and forecastsare being made withincreasing accuracy. Itis important thatforecasts andwarnings are issuedby a single officialsource.

14

• Collaborative: Those receiving andusing the forecasts must understandthe hazards and the risks they pose.Emergency services must ensure thatthe official forecasts are the onesconsistently used in their planning andaction, to reduce confusion. TheNational Weather Service will see itsefforts result in more effectiveresponse to, and recovery from,

hazards, through development ofstrong partnerships with all levels ofdecision-makers involved in disasterprevention and mitigation.

WMO GLOBAL TELECOMMUNICATION SYSTEM

The WMO Global Telecommunication System is a dedicated network of telecommunication facilities andcentres, using leased lines, satellite-based systems, the Internet, and data networks, that is implementedand operated by the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services of WMO Member countries allover the world. The Global Telecommunication System interconnects these Services to facilitate the rapid,reliable collection and exchange of all meteorological and related data, and for the distribution of weather,climate and water analyses, forecasts and warnings produced by the Global Producing Centres, RegionalSpecialized Meteorological Centres and National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. The Systemalso supports the exchange of certain other data, such as seismic data.

The Global Telecommuni-cation System ensures thateach country has access tothe information it needs toprovide effective, weather,climate and water servicesand warnings to decision-makers and the public. It isregularly upgraded, allowing itto benefit from evolvingtelecommunications technol-ogy, as well as to meetincreasing requirements.

Already, the TsunamiWarning System for thePacific uses the WMOSystem to collect andexchange tide-gauge data.The Global Telecom-munication System is also thebackbone for the distribution

of Tsunami Warning System bulletins to countries of the Indian Ocean rim and for the Interim TsunamiAdvisory Information Service. It makes an important contribution to the collection and exchange of dataneeded for the Indian Ocean Tsunami Warning System, especially those on sea-level from tide gaugesthat are acquired through the data-collection services of meteorological satellites.

RTH RTHManaged

data-communicationnetwork

RTH

RTHRTH

RTH RTH

Maintelecommunication

network

Satellitetwo-way system

Satellitedissemination

Regionalnetworks

Regionalnetworks

NMC NMCNMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

NMC

Structure of WMO’s Global Telecommunication System (NMC = NationalMeteorological Centre)

15

Mitigation phase: long-term planning forthe community

The tropical cyclone in this story is not theonly one this community has ever seen. Infact, the community has been struck bycyclones a number of times in the past,sometimes a glancing blow, with minordamage and a few injuries. Once, however,several years ago, a cyclone of terriblestrength swept through the community andcaused great damage and loss of life. It wasvery hard to recover and move on from thisevent. The people in the community sawhow much this cost them, in terms of theloss and injury of family and friends,damage to or total loss of homes andpossessions, and in terms of their ability tomake a living in the aftermath.

The planning process

They vowed that such a catastrophe shouldnever happen again if they could help it.The government helped them make a planthat would cope with another dangerousevent. Living where they did, experiencetold them it would be inevitable.

The process began with a visit from a teamof meteorologists, hydrologists, civil engi-neers, coastal zone managers, disasteremergency managers and representativesof relief agencies. The topography andsoils around the village were examinedand the villagers questioned about whathad happened in past storms. The mostlikely path that water, mud, rocks, treesand other debris would take as torrents ofrainwater wash everything downhill wasdetermined.

The teams identified the areas most likely tobe safe from such runoff and from fallingdebris and where buildings and their occu-pants and their livestock would have thebest chance to survive the winds and waterof a severe storm. They inspected the build-ings, roads, bridges and other infrastructure

in and around the community, to assesswhat needed to be reinforced.

Such decisions are a matter of availableresources and also experience. In somecases, “traditional” architecture has provedto better withstand local hazards. In coastalmanagement, mangrove forests in the land-sea interface have proved to provideprotection against storm surge and coastalerosion.

Severe storms can bring down power andtelephone lines and wash out roads andbridges, cutting communities off from therest of the world. People must be preparedto survive until communications and trans-portation are restored. The local communityand the emergency experts workedtogether to list the emergency supplies andequipment that would be needed during,and while recovering from, the crisis. Theselists include hand-operated radios andflashlights, blankets or sleeping bags,camping stoves and fuel for cooking andboiling water and the amounts of food andwater each person would need. They alsoreminded those people in need of medica-tion to keep enough on hand to last untilregular supply lines were re-established.

Severe storms andstorm suge candestroy valuableinfrastructure such asthis hospital in Niue,South Pacific, whichhas to be replaced atgreat cost.

16

Vital factors in this process are the nature ofthe hazard itself and vulnerability assess-ment. It is essential that the communityknows what hazards it may face, the associ-ated risks and how they happen. TheNational Weather Service responsible forthis community prepared information onthe hazards and their power and what warn-ings would be provided and by whom. Theyworked with partners in the emergencyservices and the government to prepare abooklet and other outreach materials thatgave this information, as well as advice onhow to maximize safety and information onthe local and national services where furtheradvice and information could be found.Every household in the community receivedthis booklet from the government but, asnot everyone was able to understand every-thing from this process alone, a number ofpublic meetings were held.

Formulating the National Action Plan

Scientists from the National WeatherService provided information and advice onthe weather, water and climate hazards towhich this community could be exposed.

Representatives of the emergency serviceswent through the procedures everyoneshould follow for each type of hazard,described the assistance that would beavailable and made sure everyone knewwhere and how to find help.

Government officials explained how thevillage emergency plan formed part of amuch larger national strategy—the NationalAction Plan. Representatives of non-govern-mental relief organizations such as theInternational Federation of Red Cross andRed Crescent Societies also offered adviceand explained what they would do to help.The relief organizations were also gatheringinformation for their own use. They neededto know, for example, how they could reachthe village; where they could deliver aid ifthe roads became impassable; and whom tocontact during the crisis.

As part of the Action Plan, responsibilitieswere assigned, so that everyone under-stood who had authority over each step.Finally, once the villagers were familiar withthe plan, they rehearsed it. To ensure that allwould run smoothly when the hazardoccurred, the community then revised itsplan to take into account any problems thathad been encountered in the drill.

It is vital in theplanning process at

the community levelto identify potential

hazards andappropriate safety

measures.People should knowwhere they can seek

shelter for themselvesand for their livestock.

Response phase: how the community“weathered” the weather hazard

The community has taken refuge in theschool. They have done what they couldto safeguard their property and to keepthemselves safe from the storm. Andwhat a storm! Inside the school, volun-teers kept the children busy, looked afterthe elderly and checked the radio fornews. The wind and rain battered thebuilding, flinging branches and otherdebris at its walls and roof, making apounding, relentless din. Rainwaterrushed through parts of the community,heading for the coastline—a fast-movingriver of water, earth and anything foundloose in its path. The media kept trans-mitting news of the storm, and where itwould pass. Because this community hadbeen informed, they understood thatthere could be only a temporary abate-ment of the winds and rain if the eyepassed over the village. It would not besafe to expect that the worst was overbecause the winds had stopped.

The emergency supplies came in handy—everyone kept warm, had food and water,light and news—small comforts given theconditions, and given the memories of asimilar storm a few short years before.The pain was still real for many. Thistime, though, there was a feeling ofhope—and confidence that they wouldwithstand this cyclone.

Of course, the storm eventually dieddown, The National Weather Service gavethe good news that the last band of rainsand winds had passed, and the commu-nity would be out of danger once theflash flooding had abated. The informa-tion provided by the meteorologists andhydrologists had impressed the peopleabout the power of moving water. Theyknew not to try to walk or drive through it,even if it appeared shallow. Opening thedoors, those who had sheltered in theschool prepared to take stock of the state

of their community in the aftermath andto implement the immediate, short-termand long-term measures in their ActionPlan.

17

The response phase:assessing the damage

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Recovery phase: cleaning up, rebuilding,and getting ready for the next one

Life does not generally return to normal atonce after a severe weather event. Theeffects can last for some time and muchwork is usually needed to repair thedamage. A recovery period must be part ofthe action plan for coping with extremeweather hazards.

When the school doors opened, there wasno rush to head for home. A small party hadbeen assigned the responsibility of first ofall making sure that the streets and build-ings were safe. The storm had beenpowerful and floodwaters were still cours-ing through the village. Keeping well awayfrom the flooding, the team began itsinspection. They looked for downed powerand telephone lines; ruptured water, gas orsewage lines; damage to roads and bridges;broken glass and spilled noxioussubstances. They looked out for injuredpeople. They also looked for snakes andvermin that might have been dislodged bythe storm or floodwaters. The teaminformed the authorities of their findings.

It was quickly apparent that the vegetationand crops had taken a beating. The livestockhad fared better, especially those that hadbeen taken to higher ground. Most of thebuildings were still standing, but all werechecked for structural damage. No one but

skilled workers would be permitted to entera building declared unsafe.

Trained volunteers checked the local supplyof drinking water for signs of contamination.Until it was declared safe, no one would beallowed to collect and use water from anywell or from the river that passed through thevillage. The action plan had accounted forthis. The community had set aside enoughdrinking water to last for several days.

As soon as their homes were declared safe,people returned and began the clean-up. Forthe unlucky ones, whose homes were not safe,temporary accommodation was organized.

The villagers had had a setback, but not acatastrophe. Implementation of the actionplan had kept the people safe. This wasmuch better than before. Thoughts turnedquickly to re-building—and to new build-ings which would be less vulnerable,stronger, out of the way of possible floods.Next time, things would be even better.

The role of the National Weather Service didnot end with the passing of the storm. Thestorm may have left this place but was stillcausing havoc elsewhere along its path. TheWeather Service continued to forecast thefull life span of the cyclone, but alsoremained vigilant regarding the weather forthe villagers entering their recovery period.

The relief teams and citizens, working to getthings back to normal as quickly as possibleneed to know if further weather-relatedchallenges will complicate, obstruct orprevent recovery efforts. In a scenario inwhich not all citizens have been shelteredfrom the hazard, as in our story, relief andrecovery efforts will begin with a search forsurvivors and for the dead. Medical andfood supplies will have to be moved into thestricken area by road, air or sea. This mustall be done as quickly and as safely aspossible. Relief teams need to be able torely on round-the-clock support from theWeather Service until the crisis is over.

Flooding can cut offcommunities andsupply routes for

days.

19

Extreme weather events are often responsible forconditions that pose serious threats in the after-math of a disaster. In collaboration with theNational Weather Services, disaster preparednessand mitigation bodies provide information that isuseful to the public in thwarting these dangers. Anon-exhaustive list is given below:

• Flash floods: After heavy rains, floods or flashfloods are a common occurrence. Movingwater is a powerful force. It can damage roadsand bridges and sweep away even heavy vehi-cles. Head for higher ground. Do not attemptto drive through, or walk through moving floodwaters - even 15 centimetres of moving watercan knock adults off their feet. When walkingin still water, use a stick to test the ground infront of you.

• Falling masonry: The disaster may havecaused serious structural damage to buildings.Walls may collapse without warning and inte-rior floors and stairs may be unsafe. Buildingsmay have been moved off their foundationsand roofs may not be firmly attached to theframe. Allow damaged buildings to beinspected by experts before going near them.

• Electric shock: Power lines may be down andsome of them may be live. It is not only thecables that are dangerous: water can be elec-trically charged from underground or bydowned power lines. Stay away from downedpower lines and do not go near floodwaters—live cables may lie in the water. If safe to doso, shut off power at circuit breakers.

• Fire and explosion: Gas pipes and gasolinereservoirs at filling stations may have been

ruptured, presenting a serious risk of fire. Gasand gasoline fumes are toxic and can causeasphyxiation, and they can also cause anexplosion, if they accumulate in an enclosedspace. Escaping gas can be smelled or heardby a hissing sound. If you smell or hear gas,leave immediately. Shut off the gas at anoutside valve if possible. Do not use openflames.

• Toxic chemicals: Floods can wash householdand commercial chemicals outdoors intosurface water and can carry away drums ofchemicals that may rupture. Surface watercould be contaminated with oil, gasoline, agri-cultural chemicals including pesticides, and awide variety of other substances. Stay awayfrom floodwaters as they may be contami-nated with toxins.

• Water-borne disease: Floods can overwhelmsewers, mixing raw sewage with surfacewater. There is a risk of disease such ascholera and dysentery. Wait for the authoritiesto declare tap water safe and, in the interim,only drink water known to be safe—or boil itfor at least three minutes. Always wash handswith soap and clean water after coming intocontact with floodwaters.

• Wild animals: Animals, including vermin andvenomous snakes that spend much of thetime in burrows or crevices may have beendriven from their retreats and may be danger-ous. Beware of snakes and vermin that mayhave been dislodged by the storm.

SOME OF THE DANGERS IN THE AFTERMATH OF A DISASTER

Falling masonryrepresents a dangerin the aftermath of adisaster.

20

Over the years, this community has learnedto plan and prepare for tropical cyclonesand associated phenomena, such as floodsand landslides. Elsewhere, other communi-ties have to face other hazards which are ofdifferent size and occur on completelydifferent time-scales.

Tropical cyclones are large, powerfulsystems, whose life cycle and behaviour arewell known and whose movements arepredictable 48-72 hours ahead. Meteor-ologists can observe and forecast the onsetand evolution of both tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, and can track them quiteeasily. Other hazards, on the other hand,behave quite differently, with each havingits own unique features which must becoped with. The planning cycle of mitiga-tion, preparedness, response and recoverywill consequently be somewhat different foreach hazard. The examples of tornadoesand droughts will highlight certaincommonalities and specific differences inrecommended responses.

Tornadoes

A great deal is known about tornadoes, theirawesome power and destructive capability,and in which regions they are most likely tooccur. Tornadoes are violent windstorms,characterized most often by a visible, twist-ing, funnel-shaped cloud that reaches fromthe thunderstorm cloud base to the ground.Tornados are spawned from severe thun-derstorms (they also sometimes result fromtropical cyclones) and can be accompaniedby lightning and hail, and by heavy rainsthat can result in flash floods.

A tornado can last from minutes to morethan an hour, but most last for 10-20 minutes. This short life-span makes thewarning of tornadoes one of the most diffi-cult tasks for National Weather Services,which are the official sources of tornadoforecasts. Because tornado development isquite well understood, the conditions likelyto cause them can be seen up to a day ortwo in advance in model output. TheWeather Service forecast teams areextremely vigilant, consulting satellite andradar imagery, studying data from wind-profilers, land stations, upper-air balloons,and lightning sensors, for early signs ofdevelopment. Too many small-scale factorsare involved for accurate forecasting severaldays ahead of convective activity. Also,tornadoes are eccentric during their shortlives. Detailed predictions of how many willform or the path along which they will travelare therefore not possible at present.

National Weather Services, specializedprediction centres and research institutesstudy tornadoes, their occurrence, character-istics and risks, and develop forecastingtechniques and warning services that can beof considerable use in mitigation andpreparedness phases. Climatological infor-

The tornado is themost violent weather

phenomenon of all.

PLANNING AND PREPARATION FOR HAZARDS ON

DIFFERENT TIME-SCALES

21

mation is used to strengthen building codesand helps influence structural design forextreme wind situations. In the short-term,the National Weather Service issueswatches for and warnings of tornadoes.When a watch is called, people are advisedto locate their family members and makesure everyone has access to shelter. As withany other hazard, it is wise to have on handan emergency kit with a flashlight, radio,first-aid materials, emergency food andwater and essential medication.

If a tornado is seen, or if radar shows thecharacteristic signs of one developing, theWeather Service will immediately issue awarning. People will perhaps have onlyminutes to take shelter. Experts advise thatsafe shelter would be a windowless, interiorroom in a basement, or the lowest placepossible in a building—a small inner roomlike a closet could be safe. It is important tostay away from windows because of break-ing glass, and to get out from underwide-span roofs such as in auditoriums. Ifcaught outdoors, people are advised not totake shelter under a bridge, to get out of theircars and to lie low in a ditch (but to beware offlash flooding).

Once the tornado has passed, it is wise tostay tuned to the National Weather Servicebroadcasts, in case there is more to bebraced for. People are advised to stay out ofdamaged buildings until they are inspected,to avoid downed power lines and to be alertto chemical spills, water contamination, gasleaks and fires.

Droughts

Droughts are normal climate events. Theyare not at all rare but their characteristics,such as duration and severity, can varyconsiderably in both time and space.Droughts are caused when, over an extendedperiod of time, a region experiences a defi-ciency of precipitation or a long-termimbalance between precipitation and evapo-transpiration. Droughts can be related totiming of precipitation during a rainy seasonor the effectiveness of the precipitation. Inother words, the amount of rainfall receivedduring a season could be “normal” but itmay all occur at the end of the period orcome only in short, intense downpours thatimmediately run off. Human activity and thedemand on available freshwater resources

Examples of therange and scales ofnatural hazards thatare observed,detected, monitoredand forecast by WMOnetworks.

Tornado damage

22

for use by people and livestock, can exacer-bate the impacts of a drought.

Droughts can result in loss of agriculturalproductivity and extensive crop failures,both of which contribute to reduced viabilityof the economy and to increased healthrisks for the human population and live-stock. Severe droughts can lead to famineand starvation. Drought can cause migra-tion of people and herds, leadingsometimes to civil unrest and politicalissues. Dehydrated vegetation is vulnerableto wildfires and barren land is vulnerable towind erosion and loss of topsoil. All thesefactors can contribute to desertification.

WMO and National Weather Servicesdevelop climatologies of drought andconduct research into its causes. Togetherwith research institutes, global predictioncentres and partners in organizations suchas the United Nations Food and AgricultureOrganization (FAO), public information andmaterials for decision-makers are developedand incorporated into long-term mitigation,planning and preparedness efforts. Thisinformation—particularly reliable predictions

of very dry or very wet seasons or years,can be extremely useful to partner agenciesand governments which have to allocatetheir available resources early in each finan-cial planning cycle.

Droughts develop slowly, and their onsetcan be masked by a number of factors.Many of the atmospheric and oceanicconditions that could lead to drought arewell known, however, and, in many parts ofthe world, scientists have developed reli-able seasonal predictions related todrought. Research shows that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation can be a reasonablepredictor for drought in some regions,particularly in the tropics. Regional special-ized Drought Monitoring Centres, in Harare,(Zimbabwe) and Nairobi (Kenya) wereestablished to monitor, study and predictdroughts and other hazards in Africa.Similar centres exist in other countries.

Seasonal to interannual prediction ofhazards

Most people recognize that the weather hascertain seasonal characteristics—pronounced warm or cold or wet or dryperiods. In addition to these seasonalcycles, meteorological and ocean scienceresearchers have identified a number ofoscillations, or cycles, in the way the atmos-phere and oceans interact over time toproduce varying weather patterns.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation

The Madden-Julian Oscillation, for exam-ple, is a roughly periodic behaviour oftropical convection that influences tropicalconvective rainfall and the formation oftropical cyclones. This cyclic behaviour,coupled with frequent analysis of satelliteimagery, allows reasonable prediction ofactive convection areas, including themovements of the Inter-TropicalConvergence Zone (ITCZ) over Africa and

Australia suffereddrought in the1997/1998 and

1981/1983 El Niñoevents. (Photo:

Australian(Government

Department ofForeign Affairs and

Trade)

23

the South Pacific Convergence Zone nearSamoa in the Pacific.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

The best known natural fluctuation ofclimate is the ENSO phenomenon. TheSouthern Oscillation is a large-scale atmos-pheric fluctuation centred in the equatorialPacific Ocean. It is characterized by a pres-sure fluctuation between Australasia andthe South Pacific that is accompanied byvariations in wind strength, oceancurrents, sea-surface temperatures andprecipitation in the surrounding areas. ElNiño is traditionally associated with anextensive warming of sea-surface temper-atures across the central and easternequatorial Pacific Ocean. El Niño eventscan last for several months to more thanone year. The opposite phenomenon, LaNiña, is an extensive cooling of sea-surfacetemperatures in the equatorial PacificOcean, lasting from seasons to more thana year. ENSO, therefore, is a feature of theinteraction of atmosphere and ocean andlinks the fluctuating temperatures of theequatorial Pacific Ocean with changingwind, cloud and rainfall patterns in thetropical Indo-Pacific region.

ENSO is a primary reason for climateanomalies that may last a season or morein many parts of the world, particularly(but not exclusive to) the tropics. ENSO-related shifts in tropical convection triggerchanges in middle- to high-latitude west-erly winds, which, in turn, alter theevolution of storm systems far beyond thetropics. Although no one ENSO event isexactly the same as another, there arecertain general characteristic patterns ofENSO impacts on regional and localweather and climate.

ENSO events have been responsible formajor socio-economic impacts around theworld throughout history. In recent times,the events of 1982/1983 and 1997/1998

have made El Niño a household term.During the 1997/1998 El Niño, believed tohave been the strongest of the 20thcentury, severe drought in Indonesia led towidespread wildfires that cast a pall ofsmoke over a wide area of South-East Asia.The worst drought of the century, coupledwith exceptional cold in the New Guineahighlands led to serious food shortages for1.2 million people. North-eastern Brazilalso experienced drought. At the sametime, there were extensive rains in tropicalEast Africa, and some 15 000 people diedas a direct result of floods and ensuingdisease. Australia suffered drought(although it was worse in the 1982/1983event). In 1997, the June-November hurri-cane season in the Atlantic was thequietest on record up to that point. Chinaand the Philippines also saw reducedstorm activity.

ENSO is now well understood and scien-tists’ ability to predict it is improving. Withlarge arrays of instruments monitoringconditions across the oceans, and increas-ingly sophisticated computer models,meteorologists can detect the early signsthat an El Niño is about to develop andpredict ENSO conditions three to sixmonths ahead with reasonable skill. Thisinformation is shared on a continual basiswith National Meteorological and

The El Niño/SouthernOscillationphenomenon is nowwell understood andability to predict it isimproving.

24

Hydrological Services around the world sothey can advise citizens and decision-makers of emerging threats.

WMO El Niño updates

WMO regularly coordinates scientific opin-ion worldwide and, when conditions sowarrant, produces “El Niño updates”, aconsensus-driven assessment of the antici-pated development of ENSO for monthsahead. These updates are issued to WeatherServices and to the public, and have provedto be reliable and useful products.

Monsoons

Another well known and predictable majorweather feature is the monsoon. Monsoonsoccur in Australia, Africa and North andSouth America, but the best known andmost studied are the East Asian and Indianmonsoons. Predicting the onset, intensityand cessation of the Indian and East Asianmonsoons is of immense value to thepeoples of these regions. Late arrival of theIndian monsoon in June or July, or earlywithdrawal in August or September, forexample, can ruin crops and lead to greathardship.

PLAGUES OF LOCUSTS

Every few years, unusually high rainfall makes vege-tation flourish in a semi-arid region. With abundantfood for their offspring, female locusts lay manymore eggs than usual. The wingless young, calledhoppers, feed peaceably, avoiding contact with oneanother, until the vegetation becomes sparser withthe return of dry weather. The hoppers are crowdedmore closely together and individuals meet moreoften.

Then a change comes over them: they no longeravoid one another. When two individuals meet, theytend to stay together, feeding all the time, andwhen two groups of hoppers meet they merge toform a larger band. The insects continue to growand when they mature they sprout wings. When the

adult locusts have eaten all the vegetation around them they move away in search of more, as a swarm.Despite covering large distances, locusts are weak fliers and swarms drift with the wind, travelling up to200 km a day.

A locust swarm can comprise as many as 80 million insects and a locust outbreak—a plague—cancomprise several swarms. One million locusts will eat nearly two tonnes of food a day: about as much as10 elephants, 25 camels or 2 500 people.

The National Weather Services of affected countries help track the swarms by monitoring and fore-casting meteorological conditions. They work closely with those engaged in locust control. WMO and theUnited Nations Food and Agriculture Organization advise national weather and locust control services.

Weather informationfacilitates the

prediction of theformation and

movement of locustswarms, as well ascontrol operations.

(Photos: FAO)

25

Huddled together within the confines of theschoolhouse for the duration of the emer-gency, the elders of the village recalledtheir own experiences and those passed onto them by their parents and grandparents.The children listened to their stories aboutthe devastating cyclones and otherphenomena—flash floods, tornadoes, light-ning and bushfires—that had left a lastingmark on the village and its inhabitants.

The villagers had heard discussions aboutclimate change on the radio and televisionand read about it in the newspapers. Theywondered if their local climate was chang-ing. Most of the villagers earned their livingfrom the land and the sea. They speculatedabout potential impacts of a changingclimate on their livelihoods and on foodsecurity. In recent years, the population hadbeen growing and new industries had cometo the region. The villagers were becomingconcerned about air and water pollution.

They had the idea of requesting the author-ities to advise them about climate changeand its potential impacts, as well as on envi-ronmental emergencies to enable them totake timely preventive and mitigation meas-ures as they were already doing for tropicalcyclones.

It is the responsibility of NationalMeteorological and Hydrological Servicesto detect, observe and forecast extremeevents related to weather or water and towarn of impending risks of these naturalhazards. WMO’s system also allows obser-vation and warning of the movement in theatmosphere and in water of chemicalsubstances, particulate matter and contami-nants. Meteorologists monitor chemicalsubstances or living organisms that remainairborne for any length of time, as well asthe drift of ash and gases from volcanic

eruptions and of pollutants resulting fromindustrial accidents. Hydrologists track themovement of oil and other contaminantsthat enter rivers, lakes, seas and oceans.

Working through the National WeatherServices, WMO helps in these tasks by facil-itating the smooth flow of observations,forecasts and other information betweencountries, The global system that WMOcoordinates includes the EmergencyResponse Activities (ERA).

Based on the capabilities of their NationalWeather Services, ERA assists countries torespond effectively to environmental emer-gencies. Emergency Response Activitieshas been built in collaboration with theInternational Atomic Energy Agency, theWorld Health Organization and the UnitedNations Food and Agriculture Organization.It centres on the round-the-clock services ofeight designated Regional SpecializedMeteorological Centres (in Beijing, China;Exeter, United Kingdom; Melbourne,Australia; Montreal, Canada; Obninsk,Russian Federation; Tokyo, Japan;Toulouse, France; and Washington, USA).These centres share the responsibility forproviding warnings and information, forexample on the atmospheric transport anddispersal of pollutants, as part of interna-tionally coordinated response plans.

Initially developed to deal with nuclear acci-dents, ERA is expanding and enhancing thecapabilities of National MeteorologicalServices to respond to emergencies arisingfrom volcanic eruptions, forest and wildlandfires, airborne disease organisms andchemical accidents.

The observational data and forecasts ofweather, climate and the atmosphere thatare collected through WMO’s network of

PLANNING FOR ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCIES AND

CLIMATE CHANGE

26

observing, data-transmitting and forecast-ing systems are vital inputs to variousinternational environmental conventionson climate change, desertification, air qual-ity, biodiversity and the ozone layer.Policy-makers are thus kept informed of thestate of the environment so that they maybe in a better position to prevent its furtherdegradation.

Climate change and weather extremes

It is generally agreed that the global meansurface temperature has increased by 0.6°to 0.7°C since 1860, when instrumentalrecords began. Recent years and 2005 inparticular have been among the warmestobserved over several centuries. At thesame time, statistics from centres such asthe Center for Research on theEpidemiology of Disasters show that thereis an upward trend in the number ofextreme weather and climate events. In2005, the number of hurricanes in theAtlantic basin reached an unprecedentednumber. The cost of such events to theinsurance industry is also growing consid-erably. In the mind of everybody, thequestion is whether the patterns in theextreme weather events being observed arethe result of a change in climate.

While these questions are the subject ofintensive studies and research, scientistsare increasingly aware of the implications of

potential climate change on extremeweather events. The assessments, based onclimate model outputs, of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change(coordinated by WMO and the UnitedNations Environment Programme) indicatethat climate change is likely to result inmore intense precipitation and associatedflooding over many mid- to high-latitudeareas in the northern hemisphere. In otherareas, there could be increased summercontinental drying and associated risk ofdrought conditions. There may be anincrease of heat waves over land areas;people living in an urban environment areparticularly sensitive to such increases. Theimpact of climate change on tropicalcyclones, especially with regard toincreases in number, frequency, windstrength and precipitation intensities, is asubject of intense research.

Current projections of El Niño events overthe next 100 years show little or no changeor a small increase in amplitude. Even withlittle or no change in El Niño, global warm-ing is likely to lead to greater extremes ofdryness and of heavy rainfall and anincrease in the risks of droughts and floodsthat occur with El Niño events around theworld.

Monsoons affect various parts of the globeand are vital for the livelihood of the peopleaffected by them. Heavy monsoon rainslead to flooding while weak monsoons

27

often result in drought conditions. Climatemodels indicate that global warming maycause an increase of Asian summermonsoon precipitation variability, whileconfidence in the projections of monsoonmean duration and strength is limited.

For some other small-scale extremephenomena, such as thunderstorms, torna-does, hail and lightning, which havesignificant impacts on the environment andsociety, there is currently insufficient infor-mation to assess recent trends and climatemodels currently lack the spatial detailrequired to make confident projections ofthese phenomena.

Extreme weather andclimate events

28

The experience of the village communityprovides lessons for all communities,including those in urban environments. Weshall look at the real-life example ofBangladesh, practical advice on how toprepare individually and collectively, thebenefits of investing in safety, and the inter-national cooperation that is essential ifcommunities around the world are toachieve and continue to enjoy a high levelof safety.

The Bangladesh example

Emergency plans that help people preparefor and respond to natural disasters savelives.

The experience of Bangladesh provides anexcellent example of the benefits of plan-ning and preparation. The authorities spent10 years establishing integrated early warn-ing services to safeguard people fromhazards caused by tropical cyclones, stormsurges and tidal and river floods. The proj-ect has largely succeeded in establishingimproved observation and communicationsystems and close cooperation between theNational Meteorological Service and the

disaster preparedness community. It hasdeveloped nationwide alert mechanismsbuilt on a network of more than 5 000 volun-teers, as well as other mechanisms todeliver critical warnings and advisories tocommunities at risk. These warningsystems, combined with programmesbased on local cultures, educate andprepare people to respond to emergenciesappropriately. This, together with activitiessuch as building shelters in coastal areas,has saved many lives. For example, in 1998,a major storm surge led to nearly 140deaths. This loss is high but, in a storm ofsimilar magnitude in 1991, 130 000 peoplelost their lives. In 1970, some 300 000perished in the storm surge that sweptacross the deltas of the Ganges andMeghna Rivers.

WMO has supported developments such asthose in Bangladesh and recently made asignificant contribution in the form of aregional project on flood management atvillage and household levels that aimed toensure the effectiveness of public warningmessages. The project proved its worthduring the severe monsoon rains of 2004.The tsunami alert-and-response mechanismin Bangladesh will be built on the currentnational alert and response system forstorm surges.

Taking responsibility

An emergency action plan involves institu-tions at many levels, from nationalgovernment to local councils, but it is notenough to wait for officials and the emer-gency services to shepherd everyone tosafety. Individuals and families shouldtake responsibility for their own safety andthat of their homes.

There is much that individuals can do toprotect themselves. Those living in areasat risk should lay in supplies of boarding

Adapting existingbuildings to withstand

severe weatherevents is an

investment in safety.Above: proper

installation of blocksbeneath mobile

homes will ensurefewer instances ofdamage during a

flood. Below: a house,originally built in a

floodplain, was raiseda level to save it from

future flooding.(Photos: Dave Gatley/

FEMA News Photo)

BEING PREPARED SAVES LIVES

29

• Find out where you can obtain reliable informa-tion about potential hazards in your area.

• Learn about the official plan for dealing with anemergency arising from extreme weather,water, and climate conditions.

• Find out whether the area where you live hassuffered emergencies in the past, what typesof hazard they were, how frequently theyoccurred, and the type and extent of thedamage they caused.

• Study the surrounding area: identify low-lyingplaces that are at risk of flooding and placesthat are exposed to high winds.

• Identify escape routes from your home andmark them on a map. Remember that a stormmay make a route across low ground orbridges impassable, so if you have to evacuateyou will need to leave before the stormarrives. Keep the “escape map” in a safe placeand make sure everyone in the householdknows where and what it is.

• If possible, arrange to stay for the duration ofthe emergency with friends or relativesoutside the affected area.

• Where most people have access to cellphones, ask someone who lives outside thearea to act as a contact through which familymembers can communicate their location andsituation should they become separated.

• Obtain supplies of wood, plywood sheeting,polythene sheeting, nails, and rope for board-ing up windows and securing external doors.

• Obtain good-quality flashlights or lamps anda reliable battery-powered or hand-crankedradio. Make sure they are in working orderand that you have spare batteries.

• Obtain a camping stove and fuel for cookingand heating water.

• Prepare a first-aid box.

• Learn basic first-aid skills.

• Make a list of the supplies you and yourhousehold (including pets) will need to survivefor two weeks.

• If you are evacuated you may need blankets orsleeping bags.

HOW INDIVIDUALS AND FAMILIES CAN PREPARE

There are steps anyone can take to prepare for a natural emergency. Not all of the advice given hereapplies everywhere, but much of it does.

30

to cover their windows and doors and ropeto secure outdoor items that could bedislodged by wind. Those living in a regionprone to tornadoes should prepare a stormshelter where they can take refuge. If thereis a risk of flooding from a nearby river,householders can keep a supply of sand-bags ready to make exterior doorswatertight. Snow shovels and a store ofsalt and grit will help reduce the impact ofice and heavy snow.

Good house and ground maintenance alsohelps. Check there are no loose or missingtiles or slates on the roof. The wind willenter through such small gaps and exert anupward force from beneath the roof thatmay be strong enough to cause seriousdamage. Make sure gutters and drainpipesare free from obstruction. Remove old orweak trees and branches and shrubs thatcould blow about in a strong wind.

More generally, there are preparationseveryone can make to increase theirchances of surviving a severe hazard ofany kind (see box on page 29).

The need for worldwide collaborationfor monitoring the weather

Continual observation of the world’satmosphere and oceans requires scientificcollaboration on a global scale. The villageof our story survived—and others can alsosurvive—because, in large measure, theNational Meteorological and HydrologicalServices receive the information they needfrom other national, regional and globalcentres to prepare and issue timely warn-ings through the WMO communicationsnetwork.

The modern technology meteorologistsuse to gather, analyse and communicateinformation is very costly. Meteorologicalsatellites, for example, are manufactured,owned and operated by those countries orgroups of countries that have a spaceprogramme. Most countries cannot affordto develop or operate satellites on theirown. Nor can they always afford advancedelectronic instruments or the supercom-puters needed to process vast quantitiesof atmospheric and oceanic data in real-time. The international collaboration thatfosters the transfer of data from groundstations, ocean buoys, ships and aircraft,prediction output from models, satellitedata and products, maps and imagery,etc., between major centres and NationalWeather Services is an important aspect ofWMO’s philosophy and service.

It is WMO’s objective that all essentialinformation is made freely and quicklyavailable so that Weather Services can dotheir part to ensure the safety and securityof people around the world.

Building techniquesadapted to a region’sclimate can help save

damage and injuryfrom natural hazards.

31

Investing in safety

Preventing and mitigating natural disas-ters call for capital investment and thecost may be high.

Collapsing buildings are responsible formany deaths and injuries during and inthe aftermath of severe weather events.Strengthening buildings so that they canwithstand hurricane-force winds andtorrential rain will reduce the numbers ofdeaths and injuries from falling masonry.Climate information is a vital part ofdeveloping building codes that ensurenew or rebuilt structures are able to with-stand local hazards.

Death, injury and loss of property fromflooding and storm surges could bereduced if people could be dissuaded

from building their homes on floodplainsand along low-lying coasts. Replacingexisting buildings and persuading peopleto abandon homes may be impractical,but building and planning regulations,strictly enforced, will ensure that build-ings and developments in future will besafer than those they replace.

Failure of infrastructure arising fromfloods, winds and extreme temperaturesmay also endanger life. Strengthening orraising bridges, particularly those that arevital to evacuation plans, would ensurethey are better able to withstand flashfloods. Once weather conditions improve,relief workers will need to bring essentialsupplies to the afflicted region. Roads andrailroads into the region must be main-tained or returned to service as soon aspossible after the event.

EFFECTIVE AND TIMELY COMMUNICATION: A CRITICAL COMPONENT OF ANEARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Efficient international and national satel-lite-based data-distribution systems,operated by National Weather Servicesunder the aegis of WMO Programmes,provide timely and reliable access toweather, climate and water information.One example among many is theEmergency Managers WeatherInformation Network (EMWIN) operatedby the USA’s National Weather Service.

EMWIN is a wireless, priority-drivencomputer weather data broadcastsystem that provides rapid satellitedissemination of alerts/warnings, fore-casts, graphics and imagery. It is a freeservice, using low-cost, readily availabletechnology. EMWIN is of crucial impor-tance for National Weather Services inthe Caribbean and the Pacific.

Emergency Managers Weather Information Network (EMWIN)

Components:

• Ingest

• Processing

• Transmission

• Reception

• Retransmission

GOES-East

GOES-West

End users

WWW

Byte blastor

Server

Relay

Wallops

A/B

C/D

Other government products

NWWS

Gateway Product list

Leased line

NWWS: National Weather Wire System WWW: World Wide Web

WWW

Bridges need to bestrengthened toreduce damage,facilitate evacuationsand ensure reliefoperations.

32

Getting the warnings out

It is essential to put in place mechanisms forcommunicating warnings to the people atlocal level who are in danger and must takeaction to protect their lives and property.Long-distance communication from anemergency management centre can be bytelephone, e-mail or radio, but somecommunities may not have the necessaryequipment. A community that cannot becontacted will have no chance of imple-menting a prepared plan before a hazardstrikes. Access to a radio, such as throughthe RANET (Radio and InterNET)programme or a computer link to theoutside world could save many lives (seepage 8).

Investing in your Weather Service pays off

For an emergency plan to succeed, thosewho must implement it will need access toreliable and understandable informationand forecasts that can be incorporated intothe decision-making process leading toappropriate action. The National WeatherServices that produce these forecasts areexpensive to run, however. Modern meteo-rologists rely on a wide range ofinstruments and equipment and, as tech-nology advances, items like computersmust be upgraded or replaced at fairlyfrequent intervals. In addition to the cost ofthe equipment, life-cycle maintenance ofobserving instruments, the cost of weatherballoons, for example, and communicationscosts (including access to the Internet andsatellite data feeds), have to be considered.

Because atmospheric conditions areconstantly changing, National Meteoro-logical Services must remain active andalert for the 24 hours of every day, everyday of every year. Meteorologists and tech-nical staff work shifts to ensure that theService is always vigilant. Meteorologistsprepare the routine weather forecasts thatare broadcast on radio and television,printed in the press or shared over theInternet, and the more specialized forecastsfor sailors, fishermen, farmers and others,who need more detailed information.

One of the most important responsibilitiesof Weather Services is to detect theapproach of weather conditions that may bedangerous, and issue the timely warningsthat save lives, at any time of the day ornight.

The need to be on permanent watch and tobe able to communicate, at any time,atmospheric, ocean and terrestrial data,forecasts and warnings of severe weather-related hazards makes Weather Services avery strong partner for communication oftimely information on other types of1970s 1980s 1990s

Number of reported

disasters

Number of reported killed

(thousands)

Number of reported affected

(millions)

Damage (billions US$)

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0

NationalMeteorological and

Hydrological Servicesare on duty all day,

every day of the year.(Photo: NEXRAD)

The economic impactof natural disasters

shows a markedupward trend over

the last few decades.

33

hazards as well. In the aftermath of the 2004tsunami that devastated parts of Asia, WMOis increasingly working in concert withother international agencies, in particularthe Intergovernmental OceanographicCommission (United Nations Educational,Scientific and Cultural Organization) toensure that its communications and obser-vations capabilities, its expertise in earlywarnings, and the 24-hour watch responsi-bility of the Weather Service in each countryare part of the global plan to prevent such adisaster from ever happening again.

Government decision-makers need tounderstand that investment in NationalWeather Services is needed and that it isworth the expense. It is not easy to deter-mine the socio-economic benefits of

weather, climate and water services, butgovernments and funding agencies increas-ingly request this information fordecision-making. They should be aware thatthe cost-benefit ratio of effective warning isat least one to seven.

Amongst other considerations is the cost ofthe impacts of extreme weather, in terms oflives lost and net economic losses. In anydisaster, however, not all those affected areaffected negatively. In the aftermath of ahurricane, for example, the lumber andconstruction industries can often find theirbusiness prospects much enhanced. Insome places, cyclones bring in muchneeded rain. Innumerable people, however,lose a great deal—sometimes everything—in violent weather. In the world as a whole,

The costs ofpurchasing,maintaining andrepairing equipmentare high but the needis vital and the fruitsare tangible.

PREVENTING ONE DISASTER FROM FOLLOWING ANOTHER

Although WMO and many National Meteorological and Hydrological Services do not advise on emer-gency planning relating to hazards such as earthquakes, tsunamis and volcanic eruptions, that areunconnected with weather or water, they can and do help in the aftermath of such disasters. Theysupply regular local weather forecasts to help relief workers and advice on the siting of facilities such asrefugee camps. For instance, they can warn that a particular site, although logistically convenient, islikely to be flooded in the event of heavy rain.

On 28 October 2005, following a huge earthquake, the Pakistan Meteorological Department releaseda seasonal weather report warning that the region was likely to experience a harsher-than-averagewinter. Snowfall was expected to exceed the norm both in frequency and quantity. This long-range fore-cast indicated that temperatures in mountainous areas would remain below freezing throughoutJanuary. At night they would sometimes fall to below -20°C. The forecast had a direct bearing on anestimated three million people who survived the earthquake, as well as on the plans of the humanitarianand relief organizations working to save lives throughout the region.

In Niger, in 2005, people were struggling against prolonged drought. Future harvests remained uncer-tain and many people, especially children, were suffering from malnutrition exacerbated by diseasessuch as malaria and diarrhoea. Weather forecasts helped those trying to overcome the disaster. TheMeteorological Service provided seasonal, ten-day, and seven-day weather forecasts and assessmentsof accumulated precipitation—important for predicting crop yields.

The Direction de la Météorologie Nationale of Niger and the African Centre of MeteorologicalApplications for Development were aiding the Food Crisis Management Unit and other organizations intheir efforts to tackle the country’s food crisis. WMO assisted these institutions in obtaining the relevantdata and forecasts.

34

over the last decade, natural disasters aris-ing from extreme weather or climateepisodes such as drought cost at leastUS$ 450 billion. That is a huge amount. It isalmost two-thirds of the total cost of lossesdue to natural disasters of all kinds.

How much could be saved, through provi-sion of weather information and forecastsas part of an effective emergency actionplan? WMO is taking steps to help NationalWeather Services develop the tools andknowledge that will allow them to preparethis kind of information for their govern-ments and partner agencies.

Natural disasters impose costs that go farbeyond the repair of homes and thereplacement of private property. A countrythat suffers a disaster of this kind has nochoice but to divert some of its resources torestoring essential services. Roads, bridges,rail tracks and power and telephone linesmust be repaired so that the country cancontinue to function. Public buildings suchas schools and hospitals must be made safeor rebuilt. Water and sewerage systemsmust be restored urgently, to preventoutbreaks of disease. The injured must

receive medical treatment. All theseunavoidable costs must be met fromresources that might otherwise have beeninvested in development projects.

The danger passed

Back in the village, life is starting to returnto normal. The damaged buildings arebeing repaired and those that weredestroyed are being rebuilt. The communityis grateful to have withstood the cyclonewith only minor damage.

They understand that another cyclone willstrike—this is part of living in this place. Theyknow that their National Weather Service willmake sure it does not strike without warning.And they now know that they have an emer-gency plan that works. It saved lives andprotected their livelihoods. It was worth theeffort.

No one is immune from the risks

associated with weather, climate and

water hazards, but we do not have to

wait helplessly while our lives and

livelihoods are in danger. WMO

collaborates with the National

Meteorological and Hydrological

Services of each country to help their

populations plan and prepare, so that

they may survive and recover and build

a better future.

WMO, through itsunique global

network operated bythe National

Meteoroloogical andHydrological Services,

does its utmost toensure that the

world’s citizens arekept safe from the

adverse impacts ofnatural hazards.(Photo: ACMAD)

www.wmo.int WMO-No. 993

Climate knowledge – for the benefit of society

andPreventing

mitigatingdisasters

natural

For more information, please contact:

World Meteorological Organization

7bis, avenue de la Paix - P.O. Box 2300 - CH 1211 Geneva 2 - Switzerland

Tel.: (+41) 22 730 83 14 - 730 83 15 - Fax: (+41) 22 730 80 27

E-mail: cpa@wmo.int - Website: www.wmo.int

PPhhoottoo ccrreeddiittss::

E. Al-Majed, Météo-France, Kyoto News/Japan,

NOAA, FAO/G. Diana, South Australia Metropolitan Fire Service, ICRC, DigitalGlobe, ISDR, Randy Williams.

Despite our efforts, we were unable to identify the photographers of some of the photos.

Their photos have been included in the belief that they would want to share their work with WMO.

Working together for a safer world