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Assess the NATO intervention in Libya in 2011. What impact did it have upon the region?

In the past few years the international community has been under considerable stress due to

increasing hostility and turmoil, starting in the Middle East but reaching North Africa and more

recently Europe. In the midst of it all, the Arab Spring – what it appeared to be a beacon of hope for

democracy, has descended four years later into a sum of dire states, with Libya at the centre of a

new growing threat to its neighbours and to the West (The Economist, 2015). The question four

years later, thus, is how the so-called successful Libyan intervention of 2011 (Ban Ki-Moon, 2012: 53)

became the heart of destabilization after a promising start post-intervention that aligned with the

successful path of Tunisia and Egypt (Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 1).

In this essay I will assess what appeared to be a successful NATO intervention in the midst of the

Libyan revolution, from the establishment of the no-fly zone (Bartu, 2014: 3) to the promising end of

the military campaign (Chivvis, 2012: 69) and the events that followed the intervention. Through my

assessment of the intervention I will seek to demonstrate that despite wide initial appraisal for the

campaign as a ‘model intervention’ (Kuperman, 2015), the verdict has been premature. In the

sequent years, Libya has descended into a country in which the rebels – who were once united

against Muammar Gaddafi and who were supported by the Western coalition, are now ideologically

divided and fighting for the control of the country (Chothia, 2015) as a result of an intervention who

failed to secure the country and left the transition to democracy in rebel hands (The Economist,

2015).

In order to reach my argument, I will start by determining the nature of the NATO intervention in

Libya – whether it was a case of ‘responsibility to protect’ (R2P) or a case of ‘pragmatic humanitarian

intervention’ as Pape (2012) considers it. Once I have established its nature, I will move on to

providing a brief account of the events that led to intervention and the role NATO in general, and

Britain and France in particular have had in the unfolding of the crisis. Having acquired knowledge of

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the Libyan revolution itself, I will then weight the literature that praises the intervention as a success

against less favourable arguments and pieces of evidence (Berman and Michaelsen, 2012). Next, in

order to give weight to the less favourable views, I will bring forward the literature on how the

intervention in Libya has affected not only the country itself but also its immediate neighbours

(Gartenstein-Ross, 2014: 4). Finally, in the conclusion, I will sustain that Libya was a unique case for

NATO interventions and not a standard, proof being the non-intervention in Syria, before I reach the

conclusion that despite initial appraisal, only four year after the operation, Libya can be considered a

failed intervention about to become a failed state (Kuperman, 2015).

To begin with, in this first section of the paper, I will discuss the nature of the NATO intervention in

Libya 2011 by giving accounts of the pillars that constitute the two competing views that claim the

nature of the Libyan operation – R2P and pragmatic humanitarian intervention.

Having a sound retrospective of previous international crises and seeking to avoid new occurrences

in which an authoritarian regime fails its civilians and turns against them, the United Nations (UN)

World Summit of 2005 has unanimously adopted R2P as a standard against genocide and mass

atrocities (Bellamy, 2010: 143). Resting on three pillars1, the principle of R2P was endorsed by the

UN2 on the idea that states, along with the international community bear a responsibility to protect

people from deliberate atrocities (Dunne and Gifkins, 2011) such as those in Libya 2011. The

principle goes beyond the concept of humanitarian intervention by emphasizing the state’s

responsibility to protect its own people, and by empowering the international community in aiding

1 The three pillars of R2P as summarised in Bellamy (2010: 143): “(1) the primary responsibility of states to protect their own populations from the four crimes of genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity, as well as from their incitement; (2) the international community’s responsibility to assist a state to fulfill its RtoP; and (3) the international community’s responsibility to take timely and decisive action, in accordance with the UN Charter, in cases where the state has manifestly failed to protect its population from one or more of the four crimes” 2 For a deeper understanding of R2P see: UNGA (2009) Implementing the responsibility to protect, A/63/677, Available online: http://responsibilitytoprotect.org/SGRtoPEng%20(4).pdf, (accessed 23/03/2015).

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the states in this regard or in taking military action when the state threatens with genocide and mass

atrocities (Bellamy, 2010: 143).

Such was the case when the Libyan crises occurred in 2011. It was not since the Rwanda genocide

that a regime was so firm and clear in its intent to commit a crime against humanity – Gaddafi’s

speeches3 standing proof of his intentions (Bellamy, 2011: 265; Lynch, 2011: 68) along with his well-

known resistance to the West ideology made the perfect case for the UN to bring forward the R2P

norm (not before being confronted with sanctions, frozen assets, and a threats for a trial at the ICC)

(Gazzini, 2011: 7; 9). Although being met with initial resistance by some UNSC members, the

intervention in Libya was eventually approved and NATO assumed command of operations on March

27th, aiding protestors and conducting the operations and air strikes with such precision that the

collateral damage was minimised (Daalder and Stavridis, 2012: 3) and later on the intervention was

deemed as a success for the R2P principle which was invoked by the UN only for the second time

after its establishment (Dunne and Gifkins, 2011).

Although the international community is considering the intervention in Libya as implementation of

R2P, there is certain criticism worth noting and which reconsiders the intervention in terms of

humanitarian intervention. Pape (2012) makes the case that the coalition intervention between

NATO and Arab allies in Libya 2011 resonated more with what he calls ‘pragmatic humanitarian

intervention’ (Pape, 2012: 43). Unlike R2P, this practice requires (a) an ongoing campaign of mass

homicide on behalf of the local government; (b) a viable plan of intervention whose death toll is not

higher than in peace time operations; and (c) a strategy for lasting local security (Pape, 2012: 43).

Such a practice would not need a clear declaration from the government on its intentions of mass

atrocities, nor would it violate state sovereignty4 in any other way than to help self-determination of

3 “…any Libyan who takes arms against Libya will be executed.” – ABC News (2011) Defiant Gaddafi issues chilling threat, Available online: http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3146582.htm, (accessed 23/03/2015). 4 “[T]he “responsibility to protect” (R2P) standard—is wrong for the opposite reasons. R2P sets the bar for intervention so low that virtually every instance of anarchy and tyranny—or indeed, every potential instance—represents an opportunity for the international community to violate the sovereignty of states. At the same

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local population, this only happening after having a viable plan for intervention (Pape, 2012: 43).

Under such condition, Libya 2011 met the standard for pragmatic humanitarian intervention, not

only because there was evidence of genocide, but also because it was a viable plan – NATO secured

the population with minimum costs – both economically and humanly (Gartenstein-Ross, 2014: 4),

and it left Libya in the hands of its own people for statebuilding (Chothia, 2015).

Moving forward, after having considered both possible natures of the intervention, I am arriving at

the conclusion that despite Pape’s compelling argument, the NATO intervention in Libya was indeed

R2P. It required the clear intention of Muammar Gaddafi to kill its own people and pressure from

the Arab League and Security Council members in order to set in motion the UN’s decision to take

action (Chivvis, 2012: 71). Furthermore, it did try initially to make Gaddafi reconsider his actions

(Gazzini, 2011). Moreover, the extent to which under R2P principle the intervener should be

involved in rebuilding society is as far as the nation needs it, and in 2011, post-operation situation in

Libya seemed under control and following the path of the Arab Spring transition to democracy

(Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 1), which is why it did not violate sovereignty to any other lengths.

Having established the nature of Libya 2011, I continue to analyse it by establishing the rate of

success it has had during and after operations ended.

Progressing in assessing the Libyan intervention, I will now provide a brief background of the 2011

events before I move on to discussing their implications for Libya and the region. As stated in the

introduction, the revolution in Libya evolved as a result of a wave of rebellion sweeping across

Maghreb (Chivvis, 2012: 69) and intervention was needed not only to demonstrate support for the

Arab Spring movement but also to stop the massacre of the Benghazi protestors by Gaddafi and to

avoid a more serious humanitarian crisis as refugees would have fled to Egypt of Tunisia5 (Chivvis,

time, R2P demands ambitious nation building to replace state institutions, which would create virtually unbounded obligations to help foreigners regardless of expense” (Pape, 2012: 43). 5 Both countries were at the time coping with their own Arab Spring revolution.

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2012: 79). After initial reluctance from the United States and even European states6, the UN initially

adopted Resolution 1970, which condemned Gaddafi’s attacks on civilians, demanded cease of

violent actions, and established an arms embargo and a travel ban – resolution that the Libyan

leader breached and ignored (Bellamy, 2011: 265; Berman and Michaelsen, 2012: 350). The

realisation that sanctions and diplomatic approach will not protect civilians led to the adoption of

Resolution 1973 on March 17th, authorising the use of force7 for the protection of civilians for the

first time by the UNSC and approving a no-fly zone over Libya (Garwood-Gowers, 2013: 594;

Bellamy, 2011: 263). Two days later a multi-state coalition began the military campaign, with NATO

taking control in late March over the arms embargo and the no-fly zone, but leaving ground

operations to the coalition forces (Berman and Michalesen, 2012: 349).

It is worth noting that the entire intervention has benefitted of two key supporters both in striving

for action and in carrying part of the costs of ground intervention. Despite NATO’s command,

France8 and the United Kingdom are the ones who kept Libya on the table and had a say in handing

the intervention over to NATO9. Sarkozy and Cameron maintained a firm position and later on

Obama joined them in statements demanding R2P (Chivvis, 2012: 71-2; 82; Fermor, 2013: 332; 335).

It was Britain and France that submitted a no-fly zone resolution draft (Hilsum, 2012: 198; Pargeter,

2012: 234) and it was the French who fired first and who sent in jets along with the US drone and it

was the British who operated on the ground with Qatari special forces and who gave tactical advice

to rebel units (Hilsum, 2012: 200; Gazzini, 2011: 3) thus voluntarily helping alleviate the harm

Gaddafi was imposing on his people and involuntarily helping the rebels overthrow him10.

6 The Libyan crisis happened also on the background of US post-Afghanistan and Iraq (two very costly wars) and on the background of European financial crisis (Chivvis, 2012: 69). 7 Authorization of ‘all necessary measures’ to prevent further assaults (Fermor, 2013: 337). 8 France was reluctant to give NATO command – it has played a major role in generating momentum for the intervention (Chivvis, 2012: 71-2). 9 Mainly due to US diplomatic pressure on the matter. 10 Fact that led later in 2011 to his capture and execution by the rebel units despite the fact that no such claims were made by the UN when adopting R2P as intervention.

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Critics of the intervention have suggested that British and French intervention in Libya was in fact an

act of self-interest, concealed under the R2P umbrella. Given the proximity of Libya, British arms

producers export throughout the region, thus being responsible for supplying Libya in a period of

turmoil. Moreover, companies like BP and Exxon Mobil were active in Libya and a change of

leadership could have been beneficial for business. Also, securing Libya – rich in hydrocarbon, oil

reserves, and natural gas – would have been a smart move for easier access to resources usually

found in the Gulf area and it would have pleased the Arab League which also strived for intervention

(Hilsum, 2012: 187-8; Fermor, 2013: 339-41).

Regardless of the motives behind intervention, NATO’s R2P mission was considered a success from

many points of view (Ban Ki-Moon, 2012: 53). It has successfully averted a bloodbath in Benghazi, it

helped eliminate the dictatorial regime, and it was conducted under a coalition between NATO and

Arab allies (Kuperman, 2013: 1). Furthermore, the air campaign was conducted so effectively that

collateral damages were minimal, all accomplished with no allied casualty and at a costs that

represented a fraction of the budget for Balkans or Afghanistan and Iraq (Daalder and Stavridis,

2012: 3; Chivvis, 2012: 78; Gartenstein-Ross, 2014: 4). Another big success were the first democratic

elections in Libya 2012, bringing in office a secular coalition government after decades of

dictatorship under Gaddafi, while all in all the NATO mission accomplished its immediate objectives

with a ‘superb’ execution (Gartenstein-Ross, 2014: 4; Kuperman, 2013: 3). Moreover, compared to

neighbouring Tunisia and Egypt – also transitioning to democracy, Libyan rebels were largely unified,

and Libya seemed at little risk of pro-regime insurgency11 (Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 1).

Using a retrospective attitude, hindsight and deeper assessment of the NATO intervention reveals

that it backfired by increasing the duration of the civil war and the proliferation of weapons in Libya

and the region through rebel forces (Kuperman, 2013: 1; 2015), thus contributing later on to Libya’s

decay and giving credibility to voices that argue the failure of the R2P mission in this next section.

11 In fact, there was little violence after the fall of Tripoli (Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 1).

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As mentioned above, the NATO intervention enabled rebels12 to resist against Gaddafi’s troops and

to later establish the National Transitional Council (NTC) as the ‘sole legitimate representative of the

Libyan people’ (Gazzini, 2011: 7). This cemented its questionable, self-proclaimed authority in a

Libyan state that has never functioned properly – even before Gaddafi’s fall; his legacy being a weak

institutional and legal system (Byman, 2013: 5). Under such conditions, Libya soon became an open

ground for conflicts rising due to strong social and political cleavages (Otto, Carlisle, and Ibrahim,

2013: 15; Chothia, 2015). As evidence of political instability and weakness stands the fact that in the

past four years, Libya had no less than seven prime ministers and its secular dream was stalled by an

Islamist dominance in the parliament (Kuperman, 2015). Moreover, failure by the government in

disarming the rebels post-intervention has led to the creation of armed militias13 in order to fill the

power vacuum (Gartenstein-Ross, 2013: 3).

Tracing the events during and post-intervention, among the first mistakes which led to considering

this case of R2P a failure was the fact that it did not respect its mandate of ‘responsibility to rebuild’

(Bartu, 2014: 13). Contrary to most interventions, the NATO military operation ended without a

peacekeeping mission or large scale nation-building (Chivvis, 2012: 78) as happened in Iraq and

Afghanistan. Furthermore, it could be argued that Libya’s poorly supervised transition to democracy

was mainly a result of previous long-lasting and costly peacekeeping missions, combined with

Libyans’ own reluctance to Western involvement (The Economist, 2015). The direct consequence of

this mistake was that the Libyans who fought against the regime, now had the leverage in claiming

power invoking the harm inflicted on them during the revolution (Lynch, 2011: 68).

To continue, another equally important act whose consequences represent a failure for the

intervention’s aims, is the fact that NATO intervened when Gaddafi’s acts of violence were on the

verge of ending, thus prolonging the civil war for a few more months and aiding rebels to resume

12 Britain and France went beyond protection of civilians and sent trainers, equipment and supplies to rebel forces so that they could start and coordinate their attacks (Chivvis, 2012: 77). 13 It is worth noting that these militias are not always obedient to the central government and that they are split along region, ethnic and local lines, thus representing a security threat for Libya (Chothia, 2015).

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their attacks, all without double checking the claims of intentional civilian targeting by the

government14 (Kuperman, 2015; Kuperman, 2013: 1-2). Additionally, the fact that the allies supplied

arms to the rebels, cumulated with the absence of a peacekeeping mission in a country with a fragile

democracy and a weak institutional system signals the fact that the R2P principle has failed in its

purpose of achieving long-lasting stability and security15. But the gravity of the situation was not

visible until later, when failure to evolve into a democracy was evidenced by growing human rights

abuses under the militias and armed groups16 that contributed to proliferation of conflict nationwide

(Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 20), while neighbouring states began to express concerns (Kuperman,

2015).

Furthermore, perhaps the gravest consequence of failing to secure the country was neglecting the

porous borders (Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 8) that soon transformed Libya in a target for terrorist

penetration (and a safe haven at the same time) – both home-grown and foreign (Kuperman, 2015).

Post-Gaddafi era is marked by releases of jihadists from jails and return of exiled extremists in the

country (Byman, 2013: 5). Some affiliated to al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), some

affiliated to the Islamic State (ISIL) the returning jihadists are also part of the question on what went

wrong with the Libyan revolution (Freeman, 2015; Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 2). The terrorism

problem also opens the question on how did the failed R2P in Libya affect the region – issue

discussed in the next, and final, section of this paper.

14 “The United Nations and Amnesty International have documented that in all four Libyan cities initially consumed by civil conflict in mid-February 2011—Benghazi, Al Bayda, Tripoli, and Misurata—violence was actually initiated by the protesters. The government responded to the rebels militarily but never intentionally targeted civilians or resorted to “indiscriminate” force, as Western media claimed.” (Kuperman, 2013: 1) 15 Cook (2014) speaks of the collective failure of all those implied in overthrowing Gaddafi, including NATO. 16 There are 9 major armed groups, currently operating in Libya: The Zintan Military Council; Misrata Brigades; Souk al Jouma and Sadun al-Suwayli Brigades; February 17 Brigade; Libyan Shield 1; Ansar al-Sharia (Benghazi); Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade ; Ansar al-Sharia (Derna); Libya Revolutionaries Operations Room. For more details on each see (Chivvis and Martini, 2014: 30-4).

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Reaching the final step in my assessment of the Libyan intervention, I believe this would not be

complete without discussing the larger picture and implications for the region as well, since the

initial upheaval in Gaddafi’s Libya was tightly linked to the Arab Spring movement roaming through

the Maghreb in 2011.

Previously mentioned, the terrorist threat stemming out of Libya, was helped in part by the

porousness of the Libyan borders in particular, and of the Maghreb in general (Byman, 2013: 5;

Gartenstein-Ross, 2013:4). Taking advantage of the chaos installed in post-Gaddafian Libya, jihadist

movements have risen encouraged by the flow of arms post-intervention and the increase in human

rights abuses, all of them increasing instability in Maghreb and Sahel. Already being torn apart by

civil wars, Nigeria and Mali were added the threat of weapons being smuggled into their countries.

Moreover, for Mali, NATO’s R2P mission meant a destabilization so great, that it needed French

intervention in 2013 in order to fight the jihadists in the north (Gartenstein-Ross, 2014: 4). Chad was

also added the threat of terrorist attack post-intervention, while the transitioning to democracy of

Tunisia and Egypt came under a bigger threat than it was during Gaddafi’s regime. Algerian officials

were also confronted with their initial fear regarding the Western intervention – increase of AQIM

activity in Maghreb as a sign of distaste for secularization (Byman, 2013: 5; Gartenstein-Ross, 2014: 9

-10).

Despite all of Maghreb being affected by the blowback from the Libyan revolution, it is worth

mentioning that Mali was the most affected. After Gaddafi’s fall, the Tuareg people that supported

him, returned to northern Mali bringing with them weapons and arming a rebellion that ended in an

Islamic fighters takeover (Milne, 2014). Along with Libya, it has descended since the intervention

into a terrorist safe haven, where terrorists suppressed by Gaddafi – radical Islamists – re-emerged

and built strong links with AQIM, Mali becoming the largest territory under Islamic extremists’

control. The crisis became of such nature, that eventually Egypt launched an air strike against

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extremist militants and as mentioned, France had to intervene in 2013 to try and stop further

exacerbation of conflict (Kuperman, 2015).

All in all, as the two previous sections have shown, the success of the NATO intervention in Libya was

proclaimed too soon, as deeper understanding of its consequences reveals. In the concluding section

therefore, I will briefly re-assess the success rate of the R2P mission, suggesting that Libya, from an

operational point of view was in a unique position and that considering the implications of the

intervention, it is a solid proof of the need to shift away from R2P, since it actually increased the

likelihood of further violence (Dunne and Gifkins, 2011: 162).

Reaching a conclusion, I believe this essay has revealed in a clear manner that the military operation

in Libya 2011, brought into attention and initiated by the French and British states under NATO’s

umbrella was first and foremost an R2P mission, intended to end Gaddafi’s acts of violence against

his own people. Seen at the time as a great success, both operationally and in terms of achieved

aims (Ban Ki-Moon, 2012: 53), Libya 2011 has proven that even the smoothest interventions cannot

account for the legacy that they are leaving behind. Moreover, in the case of Libya, R2P has failed in

its third principle – responsibility to rebuild, when the mission stopped without maintaining long-

term peacekeeping forces. Furthermore, thinking retrospectively, but accounting solely for the

mission itself, I would suggest that it cannot be viewed as a standard. The situation in Libya was

unique in various ways, which is why the UNSC still has to find a mandate that would allow taking

action in Syria – the current crisis17. Among the reasons why Libya is a special case is the fact that

Gaddafi’s crimes against his people were at a larger scale than in Syria 2011, and European leaders

felt the threat closer to home and supported the intervention. Furthermore, the UNSC is yet to find a

viable plan for military action without increasing the risks for interveners due to two factors –

geography and demography of Syria. Moreover, the military campaign itself worked nearly flawless

17 The rebellion in Syria, in fact, started out of support for the Arab Spring and Libya, and it was perpetuated as a result of Libyan destabilization post-intervention. By training rebels and supplying weapons, NATO did not account for Libya’s inability to later disarm the rebels who then slipped in Syria to fight the regime (Zelin, 2013: 4).

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because the rebels were united against Gaddafi, whereas in Syria they are unable to sustain control

of major areas (Pape, 2012: 70-1). As a result, considering the inability to replicate a successful R2P

in Syria, the fact that long-term the mission has largely failed not only in securing the country, but

also by destabilizing in sequent years the entire Maghreb, I believe that my initial argument – that

declaring Libyan intervention a success, and bringing into diplomatic and strategic attention R2P as a

mature principle, that can be applied in similar situation was a verdict employed too soon. In fact, I

believe that if anything, the NATO intervention in Libya has actually made the UNSC reconsider

alternatives in order to avoid consequences of the same magnitude for both the country and the

region (Garwood-Gowers, 2013: 610).

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