nationally determined contributions (ndcs), the role...
TRANSCRIPT
Dialogue. Insight. Solutions.!
NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTIONS (NDCS), THE ROLE OF NAMAS, AND THE PARIS OUTCOME!Ned Helme, President!
February 10, 2016!7th MAIN LAC Dialogue!Mexico City, Mexico!
• Mitigation Action Implementation Network !• Objectives of the dialogue!• Key takeaways from Paris!• INDCs and INDC Conversion!• NAMAs and INDCs!• The Climate Finance Opportunity!!
CCAP! 2!
OUTLINE!
CCAP! 3!
MITIGATION ACTION IMPLEMENTATION NETWORK !
Goals:!!!
Components:!1. Regional dialogues of policymakers, experts, potential funders!2. Video conferences with policymakers!3. Harvesting of best practices, case studies, policy analysis, policy papers!4. On-the-ground support for NAMA design, in-country workshops!5. Global dialogues, policy lunches for negotiators!
!
Create regional networks of
policymakers involved in NAMAs
(Asia, Latin America)!
Build national capacity to
identify, design and develop financeable
NAMAs!
Facilitate financing for
implementation of early NAMAs!
Impact the design of bi-/multilateral
NAMA finance programs, GCF!
• Exchange views on the Paris Agreement and Decision, and develop a clearer view of the path forward for domestic climate change policymaking and international partnership!
• Gain insight into what conversion of high-level INDCs into more specific policies and measures and supported investment strategies will require and provide opportunities for peer-to-peer learning on key steps in that effort!
• Share information on opportunities for financing and technical support for INDC conversion and implementation and discuss potential next steps by funding agencies in line with country needs and promoting ambition!
• Build a shared vision for how domestic and international resources can jointly support the conversion and implementation of INDCs!
CCAP! 4!
OBJECTIVES OF THE DIALOGUE!
CCAP! 5!
SUCCESS IN PARIS: A NEW, ROBUST CLIMATE REGIME!
• The Paris Agreement is a historic deal with an ambitious mitigation goals, strong finance commitments and the ability to hold countries to their promises.!
• 188 Countries joined together to pledge actions that combine GHG reductions with sustainable development, stemming fears of short-term competitive trade disadvantages !
Source: IISD!
Features of the Paris Outcome!
• Goal of peaking emissions as soon as possible, and rapid decarbonization thereafter to meet the aspirational 1.5 degree goal!
• Goal of reaching balance of emissions and sinks in second half of century!• Five year contribution cycles!• Global stocktakes every five years to review progress toward goal!• Renewed $100 billion 2020 finance commitment and floor for the future from developed
countries, with other countries voluntarily contributing!• Final rules on transparency and MRV will be decided next year in Morocco!
Paris had a central negotiating circle, surrounded by concentric circles of additional commitments including:!• Bill Gates’ Breakthrough Energy Coalition – new multibillion
dollar clean energy fund !• Intl Solar Alliance: $1 trillion for solar in next 15 years !• Double Africa’s RE to 300 GW by 2030!• 53 global companies announce 100% RE power!• 100 endowments divest all coal - $3.4 trillion in assets!• Global banks cut investments in coal mines, coal plants!• WGBC - zero emission new bldgs & retrofits by 2050!• Mayors, governors of ¼ of global GDP commit to 80% redux!!CCAP! 6!
HIGHLIGHTS OF “OUTSIDE” PARIS COMMITMENTS!
• Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) have surpassed expectations !– 160 INDCs submitted !– 188 countries represented!– 98.6% of global emission covered !
• This expression of shared responsibility was a key factor in the success in Paris!
• Many INDCs contain high-level, economy-wide targets without sectoral specificity or full cost estimates!
• Converting INDCs into policies, measures, and investment strategies will be key to fully operationalize the targets !
• This conversion will allow countries to leverage their own resources and attract public and private international financing at scale!
CCAP!
7!
INDCS ARE A GREAT START, NEED CONVERSION!
Source: WRI (Feb 1, 2016)!
All Parties will likely need to: !
CCAP! 8!
WHAT STEPS MIGHT COUNTRIES TAKE IN INDC CONVERSION?!
Define country conditions, priorities, barriers!
Identify national and sectoral
strategic policy priorities!
Design specific policies,
regulations, and incentives !
• Much emphasis has been given to the development of comprehensive mitigation and adaptation goals within INDCs!
• Focus of Parties after Paris will turn to how to operationalize these goals !
• Parties will need to convert INDCs into implementable actions that achieve transformational impacts. !
Parties seeking support might need to:!
CCAP! 9!
WHAT STEPS MIGHT COUNTRIES TAKE IN INDC CONVERSION?!
• Some countries may require support to achieve the ambition set forth in their INDC!
• For countries seeking to access international financing for INDC implementation, additional steps will likely be necessary!
Select programs most in need of support, due to
relative cost and degree of
implementation difficulty !
Develop finance-ready investment
strategies for implementation !
Present the investment
strategies as compelling
proposals to public and
private funders!
• CCAP looked at INDCs submitted by October 2nd 2015!• We selected those from the highest 50 emitting parties,
with the EU counting as one!• The goal was to focus on the INDCs of parties eligible
for support under the convention!• We analyzed the 39 INDCs of developing country
parties in the top 50 sample!!!
CCAP! 10!
HOW FAR HAVE COUNTRIES COME ON CONVERTING INDCS?!
• Developing country Parties have largely submitted quantified economy-wide mitigation targets and broad adaptation goals !
• Half of those 39 include a unilateral economy-wide target and a target that can be achieved with international support!
• 35 of 39 indicate they can achieve a greater level of ambition conditional on international cooperation!
• 51% include sector-wide targets!• 23% include quantified sectoral emission reductions!• 3% calculate the reductions to be achieved from specific
measures!!CCAP! 11!
HOW FAR HAVE COUNTRIES COME IN BUILDING COMPREHENSIVE INDCS?!
!
CCAP! 12!
MAIN-LAC INDCS – NOT MUCH SECTORAL SPECIFICITY INCLUDED IN INDC ITSELF!
9! 9!4!
1!
39!35!
19!
9!
0!5!
10!15!20!25!30!35!40!45!
INDCs Reviewed!
Conditional component identified!
Sectoral Actions identified!
Quantified sector-wide emissions reductions!
MAIN-LAC! Other Developing!
• The 9 MAIN-LAC countries that have submitted INDCs are largely in line with others!
• All MAIN-LAC INDCs have a conditional component!
• MAIN-LAC INDCs contain slightly less sectoral information than other developing countries!
LAC INDCs by type (all LAC countries)!
CCAP! 13!
BEYOND JUST THE MAIN COUNTRIES – STRONG PREFERENCE IN LAC FOR ECONOMY WIDE TARGETS!
Actions!16%!
Non-GHG and Actions!
7%!
GHG and Non-GHG!
13%!
Other!3%!
Economy-wide GHG!61%!
Base Year!26%!
BAU!69%!Fixed
Level!5%!
• Roughly half of the 39 INDCs estimate overall investment costs to implement the proposed reductions!
• One fifth provide full investment costs by sector and investment costs for specific measures!
• 14% present an overall financial request for international support!
• Based on our review, more sectoral policy design and financial engineering is needed to make most of the 39 INDCs implementation-ready and bankable!
CCAP! 14!
COST ESTIMATION IN INDCS!
• NAMA development helped enable the Paris Outcome!– NAMA design and preparation helped countries develop the capacity
to measure emissions and identify attractive mitigation opportunities!– New climate finance sources emerged, such as the NAMA Facility,
whose selection criteria helped shape the GCF!• To achieve the targets identified in their INDCs, developing
countries will need to implement policies and build financial mechanisms to channel domestic finance and international support for implementation of NAMAs!– The NAMA concept – host country-driven, sector-wide policies and
measures that mobilize a variety of sources of finance - provide a strong framework for doing this!
CCAP! 15!
NAMAS AND INDCS !
• Though a majority of MAIN-LAC countries’ INDCs do not include specific sectoral actions, that doesn’t tell the whole story!
• Some LAC countries have conducted extensive studies on mitigation potentials through the MAPS program!– Chile!– Colombia!– Peru!
• Several have identified priority sectors for mitigation, or have economy-wide plans!– Mexico: Climate Change Law, Plan Especial
Cambio Climatico (PECC)!– Costa Rica: Carbon Neutrality Target!
CCAP! 16!
MANY LAC INDC TARGETS BUILD ON MAJOR WORK TO DATE – CONVERSION IS NOT STARTING FROM SCRATCH!
CCAP! 17!
MAIN-LAC COUNTRIES’ CURRENT AND PLANNED NAMAS WILL HELP ACHIEVE THEIR INDCS!
Country! Key Highlight!Argentina! Climate Change Agenda; RE Law – 8% electricity generation from RE by
2017, 20% RE by (2025).!
Chile! Non-Conventional Renewable Energy Law (20% RE Target by 2025); 1st South American country to tax CO2emissions.!
Colombia! Colombian Low Carbon Development Strategy; Increase RE generation from 9.8 GW (2013) to 11.1 GW (2018).!
Costa Rica! National Climate Change Strategy; Carbon Neutrality Goal!
Dominican Republic! National Climate Change Policy; Climate Compatible Development Plan; Renewable Energy incentives!
Ecuador! RE Target: 90% of clean energy from hydro (2017).!
Mexico! Climate Change Law; Special Climate Change Plan (PECC); Plans to achieve peak greenhouse gas emissions by 2026.!
Panama! Reforesting 1 million ha of forest over 20 years; ethanol mandate of 7% in 2015.!
Peru! National Climate Change Strategy; RE Target: 60% renewables by 2030!
Uruguay! National Climate Change Response Plan; Met two RE targets: 90% RE generation (2015), and 50% primary energy from RE (2015).!
• NAMA finance encouraged countries to develop NAMAs and engage in a competitive “race to the top” – striving for ambition!
• INDCs took us a step further in national scope, often with a more conservative approach!
• GCF and NAMA Facility criteria encourage ambitious action !
• With climate finance scaling up, a pipeline of high-quality country-driven proposals are needed!
• Conversion can build this pipeline, encourage a return to the “race to the top” mindset!
CCAP! 18!
INDC CONVERSION: RESTARTING THE RACE TO THE TOP!
GCF Selection Criteria!Impact Potential!Paradigm shift Potential!Sustainable Development Potential!
Needs of Recipient!Country Ownership!Efficiency and Effectiveness!!
THANK YOU!For more information, !please visit us at !
www.ccap.org.!
• Throughout the dialogue, we will discuss several key issues that countries will likely encounter as they convert their INDCs, including: !– What domestic resources are available to countries, and how can countries best
mobilize them? !– What role should international finance play in countries’ efforts to achieve their
INDCs, and how does it relate to domestic resources?!– What is the role of public policy in changing the economics of climate-friendly
investments and technologies? What are appropriate expectations for policy change? !
– What is appropriate for countries to finance themselves? What considerations should a country make in making finance requests?!
• By better understanding where LAC countries are in terms of a shared vision for INDC conversion, we will be able to answer these questions better, including with a view to help funders target their support!
• We will not likely come to final answers in this dialogue, but we hope the exchange of views will help shape the consideration of these issues going forward!
CCAP! 20!
THIS IS THE FIRST DIALOGUE POST-PARIS ON HOW WE CAN RESTART THE RACE TO THE TOP!