National Weather Service Office of Science & Technology Perspective on Future Enterprise Observing Systems

Mike Johnson

Don Berchoff, DirectorPaula Davidson, Pete Roohr

Office of Science & TechnologyNational Weather Service

2 February 2010

National Weather Service Office of Science & Technology Perspective on Future Enterprise Observing Systems

Mike Johnson

Don Berchoff, DirectorPaula Davidson, Pete Roohr

Office of Science & TechnologyNational Weather Service

2 February 2010

OverviewOverview

Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systemsRequirements Process

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Summary

Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systemsRequirements Process

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Summary

NESDIS/OSD Technology, Planning and Integration Office (TPIO)…Current Process

NESDIS/OSD Technology, Planning and Integration Office (TPIO)…Current Process

NOAASatellite

AndInfo.

Service

NESDIS

NationalMarine

FisheriesService

NMFS

NationalOceanService

NOS

Oceanic& Atmos-

phericResearch

OAR

NationalWeatherService

NWS

ProgramPlanning& Inte-gration

PPI

ProgramAnalysis

&Eval-

uation

PA & E CFO

Ecosystem Goal EC

Climate Goal CL

Weather & Water Goal W

W

Commerce & Transportation Goal C

T

Mission Support Goal M

S

Satellite Sub-Goal

Fleet Sub-GoalMOBI Sub-Goal

Leadership Sub-Goal

Line and Staff Offices

Goals and Sub-Goals

Councils

Manage observing requirements

process for

Interface with

3Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO

Collect Observation Collect Observation RequirementsRequirements Maintain and manage Maintain and manage

Consolidated Observation Consolidated Observation Requirement List (CORL)Requirement List (CORL)

Manage NOAA’s observing Manage NOAA’s observing requirement verification requirement verification and validation processand validation process

NOAA Observing System NOAA Observing System Portfolio AnalysisPortfolio Analysis Maintain and manage Maintain and manage

NOAA Observing System NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA)Architecture (NOSA)

Perform investment Perform investment portfolio analysis portfolio analysis

Develop and Analyze Develop and Analyze NOAA Environmental Data NOAA Environmental Data Management SystemsManagement Systems Maintain and manage Maintain and manage

Information Management Information Management System (IMS) inventorySystem (IMS) inventory

Implement Global Earth Implement Global Earth Observation-Integrated Observation-Integrated Data Environment (GEO-Data Environment (GEO-IDE)IDE)

Collect Observation Collect Observation RequirementsRequirements Maintain and manage Maintain and manage

Consolidated Observation Consolidated Observation Requirement List (CORL)Requirement List (CORL)

Manage NOAA’s observing Manage NOAA’s observing requirement verification requirement verification and validation processand validation process

NOAA Observing System NOAA Observing System Portfolio AnalysisPortfolio Analysis Maintain and manage Maintain and manage

NOAA Observing System NOAA Observing System Architecture (NOSA)Architecture (NOSA)

Perform investment Perform investment portfolio analysis portfolio analysis

Develop and Analyze Develop and Analyze NOAA Environmental Data NOAA Environmental Data Management SystemsManagement Systems Maintain and manage Maintain and manage

Information Management Information Management System (IMS) inventorySystem (IMS) inventory

Implement Global Earth Implement Global Earth Observation-Integrated Observation-Integrated Data Environment (GEO-Data Environment (GEO-IDE)IDE)

ChiefFinancialOfficer

Provide analysis products to

CFO

ResearchCouncil

Research

NOAAObservingSystemsCouncil

NOSC

NOAAOceanCouncil

NOC

FleetCouncil

FC

ChiefInfo.

OfficerCouncil

CIO

ChiefFinancialOfficerCouncil

CFO

Goals and Sub-Goals

NOAA’s Proposed Strategy…future process

(still under draft & review) NOAA’s Proposed Strategy…future process

(still under draft & review) NOAA’SLONG-TERMSTRATEGY

Mission: To understand and predict changes in Earth’s environment and conserve and manage coastal and marine resources to meet our nation’s economic, social, and environmental needs

Vision: Healthy and

productive communitie

s, economies,

and ecosystems

within a changing

world

NOAA’S5-YEAR

STRATEGY

NOAA’s Next Generation Strategic Plan, Mary Glackin NOAA DUS @ Jan 2010 AMS

OverviewOverview

Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systemsRequirements Process

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Summary

Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systemsRequirements Process

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Summary

National Need: High-Impact Weather Information in a

Weather-Sensitive Society

National Need: High-Impact Weather Information in a

Weather-Sensitive Society Severe weather to protect lives and

property

Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives

Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets

Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts

Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency

Severe weather to protect lives and property

Winds and solar information for viable energy alternatives

Space weather to protect national comms, navigation, energy grid assets

Integrated ecosystem, water and air quality to improve water resource management, reduce health and environmental impacts

Aviation weather increase airspace capacity, safety and efficiency

Weather and climate sensitive industries account for nearly Weather and climate sensitive industries account for nearly 30 percent of the Nation’s GDP 30 percent of the Nation’s GDP

(NOAA Economics Statistics Report--2008)(NOAA Economics Statistics Report--2008)

Aviation Weather: High-impact InformationAviation Weather: High-impact Information

Baseline Demand

Future Demand

>200%

SectorCapacity

125-200%

80-125%

Air traffic likely doubling by 2025

Delays cost $41 billion/year (2007)

70% were weather relatedNextGen 2025 goal: 2/3 reduction with better

weather information Improvements to forecast lead-

time for initiation of storm-scale convection, ceiling/visibility

NWS/OS&T MissionNWS/OS&T Mission

Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging

Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance) Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions

Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next-

generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc

Enable Continuous Improvement…with Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere

budget era Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon

Drive S&T Advances into NWS Operations Respond to Field Requirements and Emerging

Opportunities (user pull and S&T push balance) Plan, Develop, and Implement Enterprise Solutions

Focused on the greatest need and payback to the Nation Future: high-performance computing, cloud computing, next-

generation collaboration/dissemination technologies, etc

Enable Continuous Improvement…with Better, faster, and more cost effective solutions during austere

budget era Architectures for agile, rapid S&T insertion and reduced IT footprints Partnerships-- transformational and emerging S&T beyond horizon

9

S&T Roadmap S&T Roadmap 2025 Stretch Goals2025 Stretch GoalsS&T Roadmap S&T Roadmap 2025 Stretch Goals2025 Stretch Goals

Science Service Area

Key Products/Services

S&T Goal 2025Examples

Research Needs and Opportunities: Examples

Fire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% POD Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire weather/behavior

Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings

Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles

Aviation Convection Initiation, evolution and dissipation

30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection

Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics

Winter Weather Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds Snow band formation and snow intensity

Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore

Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts

Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes

Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events

Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty

Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics

Winter Weather Winter Storm Warning 30 hour LT Snow band formation and snow intensity

Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore

Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts

Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes

Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate, probabilistic 6 month+ LTs on forcing events

Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty

Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter

>90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind

<5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models

1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems

Air Quality Predictions

Geomagnetic Storm Warnings

Tsunami Warnings

Wind Forecasts

Air Quality

Space Weather

Tsunami

Emerging Areas/Surface Wx

AviationAviation Key Products: Key Products: • Convection InitiationConvection Initiation2025 Stretch Goal:2025 Stretch Goal:• 30 minute lead time30 minute lead timeResearch Needs/Oppty Examples: Research Needs/Oppty Examples: • Initiation, evolution of convectionInitiation, evolution of convection

Tropical WeatherTropical WeatherKey Products: Key Products: • Hurricane Track, Intensity ForecastsHurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts2025 Stretch Goal: 2025 Stretch Goal: • Errors reduced by 50%Errors reduced by 50%Research Needs/Oppty Examples: Research Needs/Oppty Examples: • Causes of rapid intensity changesCauses of rapid intensity changes

http://www.weather.gov/ost/S&TRoadmaphttp://www.weather.gov/ost/S&TRoadmap

Roadmap Example: Tropical Weather

• Better sea surface observations and data assimilation• Better ocean-atmosphere coupled models• Social Sciences integration …

requires

Stretch goal: 50% Reduction in Forecast Track and Intensity Errors

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program: Recent Progress

Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program: Recent Progress

Accomplishments:Improved Data Assimilation system gave 14% improvement in

5-day track forecast High resolution ensemble systems show both track and

intensity forecast improvements

NCEP Reworking NCEP Reworking Data Data

Assimilation Assimilation plans based on plans based on

findingfinding

S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Integrated Observation/Analysis SystemIntegrated Observation/Analysis SystemS&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Integrated Observation/Analysis SystemIntegrated Observation/Analysis System

12

AccomplishmentsEstablished Mesonet Project OfficeContracts for Metadata analysisInteragency Collaboration; Committees:

•OFCM/Integrated Observing Systems•AMS Ad Hoc Committee

OSSE Testbed

Analysis

Inventory & Assess systems, metadata

Assess interdepend-encies, oversampling, gaps, levels of criticality

Current

Individual Systems Public, Private. Universities

Radar, SatelliteSurface; in-Situ, Upper Air….

StrategiesIntegration: National Mesonet, Network of Networks, Integrated Radar (Lidar, gap-fillers, MPAR), Global Systems, multisensor platforms

Optimization: OSEs, OSSEs

Standards Architectures, Protocols

Maximize investment value

Future

Weather Information Database

Open Architecture

System B

System C

System A

MADIS

IOOS

Integrated Radar System

Rawindsones

Satellites

System B

System C

System A

MADIS

IOOS

Integrated Radar System

Rawindsones

Satellites

S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Integrated Environmental Modeling SystemIntegrated Environmental Modeling SystemS&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:

Integrated Environmental Modeling SystemIntegrated Environmental Modeling System

13

Atmospheric Model

13

Ocean

Land Surface

Air Quality

Space

Hydrology

Ecosystem

Ensembles

Etc

Resolution Changes, Downscaling Post Processing: bias correction,

statistics, ensembles Product Generation Verification

4D Data Assimilatione.g. 4D Var, EnKF, hybrids

Multi-component ensemble+

Stochastic forcing

Components

PhysicsDynamics Chemistry Couplers

Earth System Models

AccomplishmentsIncreased focus on external participation Investment in Developmental Test Center –

WRF today; Ensembles tomorrow, Global models in futureNUOPC NOAA/Navy/AF partnership

WIDB

WeatherIndustry

S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Next Generation Forecast and Decision Support Next Generation Forecast and Decision Support

SystemSystem

S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Next Generation Forecast and Decision Support Next Generation Forecast and Decision Support

SystemSystem

14

Responders

IMETS

AccomplishmentsInnovation center outreachGroundwork to advance iNWS enterprise-wide

NWS Forecasters

EmergencyManagers

Emergency Operations Center

WIDB

CustomGraphic

Generators

CustomGraphic

Generators

Integration into User DecisionsIntegration into User Decisions

DecisionSupportSystems

DecisionSupportSystems

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

CustomAlphanumeric

Generators

ObservationsObservations ForecastingForecastingForecastingForecasting

4D WxSAS

RadarsRadars

AircraftAircraft

SurfaceSurface

SatellitesSatellites

SoundingsSoundings

Private SectorPrivate Sector

NWSForecaster

NWSForecaster

Forecast SystemsForecast Systems

Forecast IntegrationForecast Integration

Statistical Forecasting Systems

Statistical Forecasting Systems

Numerical Modeling Systems

Numerical Modeling Systems

S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Weather Information Database (WIDB)Weather Information Database (WIDB) S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes:Weather Information Database (WIDB)Weather Information Database (WIDB)

WIDB Cube

Accomplishments NOMADS, MADIS, NDFD data/information ready Progress on weather IT architecture integration

Strategic PrioritiesPutting it All Together:

Grand Challenge Demonstrations

Strategic PrioritiesPutting it All Together:

Grand Challenge Demonstrations For developing and injecting S&T

advances needed for improved:Prediction of initiation, evolution of convection

for aviation weather, severe weather, tropical weather

Ecosystem prediction with hydrology focus

Winds forecasting for renewable energy

For developing and injecting S&T advances needed for improved:Prediction of initiation, evolution of convection

for aviation weather, severe weather, tropical weather

Ecosystem prediction with hydrology focus

Winds forecasting for renewable energy

OverviewOverview

Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systemsRequirements Process

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Summary

Describe NWS/OST Perspective on future enterprise observing systemsRequirements Process

NWS Science & Technology Roadmap

Summary

SummarySummary

Requirements process defines observation needs to meet strategic goals

Requirements process is changingNWS Science & Technology Roadmap

defines NWS strategic goals These goals are used as context for

prioritizing observation needs to fill weather & water goals

Requirements process defines observation needs to meet strategic goals

Requirements process is changingNWS Science & Technology Roadmap

defines NWS strategic goals These goals are used as context for

prioritizing observation needs to fill weather & water goals

Questions?Questions?

email: nwsostroadmap@noaa.govemail: nwsostroadmap@noaa.gov

Questions?Questions?

email: nwsostroadmap@noaa.govemail: nwsostroadmap@noaa.gov

S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Incorporate Social Sciences Incorporate Social Sciences

Strategies in Research & OperationsStrategies in Research & Operations

S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: S&T Roadmap Strategic Themes: Incorporate Social Sciences Incorporate Social Sciences

Strategies in Research & OperationsStrategies in Research & Operations

Private Sector

Today

Forecasters

PublicDecision Makers

Public

High

Time

Human Factors, Communicating

Uncertainty

Example

• Probabilistic Forecasts

• Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

Example

• Probabilistic Forecasts

• Communicating Forecast Uncertainty

Incorporating Uncertainty for

Managing Risk and Making Decisions

Educated on use of probabilistic guidance to ensure best response

20

Low

WeatherIndustry

SophisticatedUsers

So

cia

l Sc

ien

ce

Infu

sio

n

Dif

fic

ult

y

Service Area GoalsService Area GoalsScience Service

AreaKey Products/

ServicesS&T Goal 2025

ExamplesResearch Needs and

Opportunities: ExamplesFire Weather Red Flag Warning >24hr Lead Time (LT) with 95% POD Simulations (high-resolution) of integrated fire

weather/behavior

Hydrology Inundation Forecasts Dependable Street Scale Probabilistic Warnings

Physically based hydrologic models and ensembles

Aviation Convection Initiation 30 mins LT Initiation and evolution of convection

Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics

Winter Weather Winter Hazards High-Res User-Defined Thresholds Snow band formation and snow intensity

Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore

Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts

Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes

Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events

Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty

Severe Weather Tornado Warning Warn on Forecast, LT > 1hr Improved understanding of tornado formation and severe weather microphysics

Winter Weather Winter Storm Warning 30 hour LT Snow band formation and snow intensity

Marine Storm Warnings Probabilistic Warning, LT > 5 days Improve wave model physics from shelf to shore

Tropical Weather Hurricane Track, Intensity Forecasts

Errors reduced by 50% Causes of rapid intensity changes

Climate Seasonal/IA Forecasts Accurate 6 month+ LTs on forcing events

Earth system modeling with ensemble prediction and uncertainty

Accuracy >85% out to day 5 Advanced simulations of generation and reactive chemical transport of airborne particulate matter

>90% accuracy, out to day 2 Data Assimilation: Ionosphere, Magnetosphere, and Solar Wind

<5 mins after triggering event Enhanced observations and models

1km resolution, 5 min updates Meteorological influences on renewable and sustainable energy systems

Air Quality Predictions

Geomagnetic Storm Warnings

Tsunami Warnings

Wind Forecasts

Air Quality

Space Weather

Tsunami

Emerging Areas/Surface Wx

Program Observation Requirements Document (PORD)

Program Observation Requirements Document (PORD)

Description:Summary (report) of Program observing system requirementsRequirements independent of current or planned platforms

Recipients: Hardcopy/email to program managers,NOSC, etc

Application: Allows program managers to review and verify current observing requirements

22Slide excerpts courtesy of NESDIS/TPIO

• Halved track & intensity forecast errors

• Warnings and forecasts prior to cyclogenesis

• Communication of accurate high-resolution information

Tropical Cyclones RoadmapTropical Cyclones RoadmapTropical Cyclones RoadmapTropical Cyclones Roadmap

09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 2509 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 25

• Track forecast to 7 days

• Detailed storm-surge/inundation forecasts

• Improved tropical cyclone precip. estimates

• Wind radii forecasts

to 5 days

• Wind& surge impact

guidance to 36-hr

• Improved rapid

intensity change,

POD and FAR

23TimeTime

Incr

easi

ng

Im

pac

t

Vision

Finer scale and highly accurate track, intensity and inundation

forecasts that trigger appropriate responses resulting in reduced

loss of life and economic impacts

R&D Needs and Opportunities

• Cause of rapid intensity changes

• Key observations needed for improved forecasting

• Air-sea fluxes under quiet and disturbed conditions

• Predictability limits

• Vortex-convection-environment interactions

• Microphysics of convection at high-resolution

• Social Science