National Scrapie Eradication April 2014 Monthly Report

National Scrapie Eradication Program

February 2015 Monthly Report Fiscal Year 2015

U.S. Department of AgricultureAnimal and Plant Health Inspection Service

Veterinary Services

Surveillance, Response and Preparedness Services

Sheep and Goat Health Program

March 15, 2015

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INTRODUCTION - Program Summary

At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull black face sheep found positive at slaughter was 0.02 percent (Chart 1). This measure decreased by 51 percent compared to FY 2013 and 98 percent compared to FY 2003.

Eight source flocks (including 2 goat herds) and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2013. Three source flocks and 3 infected flocks were designated in FY 2014 (Chart 2), a decrease of 45 percent. One infected and two source flocks have been designated in FY 2015.

At the end of FY 2014, the percent of cull sheep found positive at slaughter and adjusted for face color* was 0.019 percent and is currently at 0.009 percent for FY 2015 (Chart 3). This measure increased by 31 percent compared to FY 2013 and decreased 87 percent compared to FY 2003.

In November 2014, the first positive goat found through RSSS was identified. Based on the goats sampled at slaughter to date, the prevalence of scrapie in U.S. cull goats is 0.004 percent with an upper 95 percent confidence limit of 0.013 percent. Chart 3a was added to the December 2014 report to show the percent positive goats at slaughter each FY since FY 2011.

* See slide 4 for an explanation of adjusted weights.

Introduction - Program Summary

INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 1)

Regulatory Scrapie Slaughter Surveillance (RSSS)

RSSS started April 1, 2003. It is a targeted slaughter surveillance program which is designed to identify infected flocks. Samples have been collected from 459,201 animals since April 1, 2003. There have been 477 NVSL confirmed positive animals* (469 classical cases and 8 Nor98-like cases) since the beginning of RSSS. As of February 28, 2015, 15,463 samples have been collected in FY 2015, 12,352 from sheep and 3,111 from goats.

As of February 28, 2015, 2 black-faced sheep and 1 goat have tested positive for scrapie in FY 2015; this is the first positive goat case found through RSSS. The weighted percentage of samples from sheep that have tested positive for each face color from FY 2003 through FY 2015 is depicted in Chart 3**; percent positive goats are shown in Chart 3a. In November 2013, administrative units within APHIS Veterinary Services reorganized from 2 Regions to 6 Districts (Figure 1). The distribution of sheep and goat populations by District is depicted in Chart 4a. The number of animals collected for FY 2015 by District where collected is shown in Chart 4b. A monthly comparison of RSSS collections by fiscal year is displayed in Chart 5. Chart 6 is a retrospective 6-month rolling average of the percent positive, black-faced sheep sampled at RSSS collection sites.

* RSSS positives are reported based on collection date and may have been confirmed after February 28, 2015.** White, black and mottled face color sheep are weighted based on population. White faced sheep have the highest weight, so when

the rare white face positive sheep is found it causes this statistic to markedly increase. Goats and other face colored sheep are not included in this calculation.

Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1)Introduction – Surveillance (Part 1)

INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 2)

On-Farm Surveillance

Testing sheep and goats on-farm is an essential part of scrapie surveillance. It includes both regulatory testing of scrapie exposed and potentially exposed sheep and goats and testing sheep and goats on farm for routine surveillance. As the National Scrapie Eradication Program moves closer towards meeting the goal of identifying the last remaining cases of classical scrapie, finding and testing all sheep and goats meeting targeted sampling criteria is even more important.

As of February 28, 2015, 511 sheep and 214 goats have been tested on-farm for FY 2015. Twenty-eight animals (27 sheep and 1 goat) have tested positive; 26 of the positive sheep were from the same flock. The number of animals tested on-farm by month and by species for FY 2015 is shown in Chart 7.

Total Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing

As of February 28, 2015, 16,188 animals have been sampled for scrapie testing in FY 2015:• 15,463 RSSS samples and 725 on-farm samples (Chart 8); • Of which 12,863 were sheep and 3,325 were goats.

Distribution of sampling by type (RSSS or on-farm) and by species is shown in Chart 9.

Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

INTRODUCTION - Surveillance (Part 3)

State Sampling Minimums

The National Scrapie Eradication Program establishes annual sheep and goat sampling minimums for each State, and tracks the States’ level of compliance with meeting these minimums. These State minimums help ensure adequate geographical representation, so that APHIS can find the last remaining cases and document freedom from scrapie. State sampling minimums are established based on the population demographics of mature sheep in each State. The calculations used to derive the sampling minimums are described in theNational Scrapie Surveillance Plan. The State sampling minimums for sheep and goats, and the total number of animals sampled by State of Animal ID, are provided in the slides listed below.

The percent prorated sampling minimum for sheep and goats achieved by each State in FY 2015 are depicted in Figure 2 and Figure 3.

District 1 Table 1 District 4 Table 4

District 2 Table 2 District 5 Table 5

District 3 Table 3 District 6 Table 6

Introduction – Surveillance (Part 2)

INTRODUCTION - Positive Cases and Infected/Source Flocks

Positive Scrapie Cases*

Since the beginning of FY 2015, 29 sheep have tested positive for scrapie; 26 of these positives were from the same source flock. (Table 7 and Figure 4).

The first RSSS positive goat was reported in November 2014. This case and a positive clinical suspect from the same herd increases the number of confirmed positive cases in goats since FY 2002 to 41 (Table 7 and Figure 5).

Total positive cases reported in FY 2015 is 31.

Infected and Source Flocks

As of February 28, 2015, there were 5 flocks with an open source status (Figure 6). One infected and two source flocks have been designated in FY 2015 (Figure 7); two flocks completed a flock clean-up plan and were released (Figure 8). New infected and source statuses from FY 1997 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 2.

* Samples collected between October 1, 2014 and February 28, 2015 and confirmed by March 15, 2014.Cases and New Infected/Source Flocks

INTRODUCTION - Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

As of February 28, 2015, there were 451 flocks participating in the Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP). Statuses of these flocks were 172 export monitored, 17 export certified, and 262 select monitored flocks (Figure 9). SFCP open statuses by fiscal year from FY 2007 to FY 2015 are depicted in Chart 10.

The current status of participating flocks is available to the public on the SFCP Web Page.1

The current version of the SFCP standards was published June 20, 2013. A copy of the standards can be downloaded from APHIS’ SFCP Web Page.

1 Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status.

This report is based on information and test results available at the time of report generation. Numbers are subject to change due to later reporting of test results and updates in the database.

Introduction – Scrapie Flock Certification Program (SFCP)

* Through February 28, 2015—Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from same flock. Mottled- and white-faced combined. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011).

(Chart 1)

0.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.9%1.0%

% Pos '03% Pos '04% Pos '05% Pos '06% Pos '07% Pos '08% Pos '09% Pos '10% Pos '11% Pos '12% Pos '13% Pos '14% Pos '15

Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - By Face Color - Fiscal Year (2003 – 2015*)

* Through February 28, 2015.

(Chart 2)

Infected and Source Flocks New Statuses by Year - Fiscal Years 1997 to 2015*

FY '9

7

FY '9

9

FY '0

1

FY '0

3

FY '0

5

FY '0

7

FY '0

9

FY '1

1

FY '1

3

FY '1

5

0

50

100

150

200

InfectedSource

* Through February 28, 2015—Adjusted to exclude multiple positive animals from the same flock. Does not include Nor98-like scrapie cases found through RSSS (2 in FY 2007, 1 in FY 2008, 4 in FY 2010, 1 in FY 2011).

(Chart 3)

0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16%% Pos '03% Pos '04% Pos '05% Pos '06% Pos '07% Pos '08% Pos '09% Pos '10% Pos '11% Pos '12% Pos '13% Pos '14% Pos '15

Percent of RSSS Sheep Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Weighted by Face Color

Fiscal Years 2003 to 2015*

(Chart 3a)0.00%

0.02%

0.04%

0.06%

0.08%

0.10%

0.12%

0.14%

0.16% % Pos '11% Pos '12% Pos '13% Pos '14% Pos '15

Percent of RSSS Goat Samples that Tested Positive for Classical Scrapie - Fiscal Year (2011 – 2015*)

* Through February 28, 2015

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VI

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PR

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZAR

AK

AL

District One

District Two

District Three

District Four

District Five

District Six

(Figure 1)

Surveillance Preparedness and Response Services (SPRS) Districts

Total Sheep and Goat Populations by VS DistrictFY 2015*

District 1 District 2 District 3 District 4 District 5 District 6**0

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

(Chart 4a)* Source: NASS Sheep and Goat January 30, 2015.

** Includes sheep and goats residing in the Navajo Nation.

Sheep

Goats

Total Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collectedby VS District Where Collected

FY 2015*

Distric

t 1

Distric

t 2

Distric

t 3

Distric

t 4

Distric

t 5

Distric

t 60

1,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,000

(Chart 4b)* Through February 28, 2015.

Distric

t 1

Distric

t 2

Distric

t 3

Distric

t 4

Distric

t 5

Distric

t 60

200400600800

1000120014001600

Sheep Goats

(Chart 5)

Slaughter Surveillance Samples Collected by MonthFiscal Years 2011 to 2015

As of February 28, 2015

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

10* 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

FY 11FY 12FY 13FY 14FY 15

Month

* Surveillance numbers were significantly lower October 2013 compared to October in prior FYs because the furlough reduced the number of collection days.

* Through February 28, 2015. Includes only sheep with test results reported. Includes multiple positives from same flock.

(Chart 6)

Retrospective 6 Month Rolling Average of Percent Classical Scrapie Positive Black-Faced Cull Sheep Sampled at Slaughter*

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

Mar

-04

Mar

-05

Mar

-06

Mar

-07

Mar

-08

Mar

-09

Mar

-10

Mar

-11

Mar

-12

Mar

-13

Mar

-14

% Positive

On-Farm Surveillance Testing by Month and Species - FY 2015*

Oct-14

Nov-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

GoatsSheepTotal

(Chart 7)* Through February 28, 2015.

Number of Animals Sampled for Scrapie Testing by Quarter - FY 2015*

1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

On-Farm Testing**RSSS

(Chart 8)* Through February 28, 2015.** Includes all regulatory testing (necropsy and live-animal) and on-farm surveillance.

* Through February 28, 2015.(Chart 9)

RSSS and On-Farm Surveillance Testingby Species - FY 2015*

80%

20%

RSSS

Sheep Goats

70%

30%

On-Farm

Sheep Goats

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 1

(Table 1)

* As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

WV

VT

VA

RI

PA

NY

NJ

NH

NC

ME

MD

MA

DE

CT

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Connecticut 9 27 9 4Delaware 2 6 0 3

Maine 67 58 13 5Maryland 39 110 21 92

Massachusetts 22 56 5 7New Hampshire 38 40 3 4

New Jersey 7 76 1 10New York 300 470 175 41

North Carolina 141 150 66 75Pennsylvania 111 585 145 62Rhode Island 10 9 0 1

Vermont 81 80 16 8Virginia 190 530 66 59

West Virginia 160 220 19 24

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 2

(Table 2)* As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

TNSC

GA

FL

AL

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Alabama 55 119 39 59Florida 5 73 20 65Georgia 33 104 90 68

South Carolina 27 62 62 49Tennessee 524 230 80 141

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 3

(Table 3)* As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

WI

OH

MN

MI

KY

INIL

IA

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Illinois 279 360 125 125Indiana 419 340 336 48

Iowa 447 589 57 349Kentucky 238 310 229 84Michigan 648 430 62 189

Minnesota 494 588 46 42Ohio 611 587 169 426

Wisconsin 510 520 36 80

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 4

(Table 4)* As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

TX

OK

MS

LA

AR

MO Total

Sheep Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Arkansas 44 102 120 47Louisiana 19 45 5 23

Mississippi 22 69 25 30Missouri 247 530 303 105

Oklahoma 55 420 65 111Texas 271 597 76 597

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 5

(Table 5)* As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

WYSD

NE

NDMT

KS

ID

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Idaho 457 593 19 20Kansas 130 390 24 43

Montana 874 593 33 13Nebraska 169 540 35 23

North Dakota 408 410 7 4South Dakota 1,210 594 17 10

Wyoming 1,023 595 26 8

WA

UT

OR

NV

NMHI

CO

CA

AZ

AK

FY 2015 Sheep and Goat State Sampling Minimums and State Collections

District 6

(Table 6)* As of February 28, 2015. Note that all surveillance samples may not yet have been credited to the State.

Total Sheep

Sampled FY 2015*

Sheep Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Total Goats

Sampled FY 2015*

Goat Sampling Minimum FY 2015

Alaska 11 5 0 1Arizona 13 200 36 82

California 323 595 116 588Colorado 693 593 135 243

Hawaii 32 89 5 12Nevada 35 550 36 17

New Mexico 55 236 42 13Oregon 364 590 134 42

Utah 523 594 24 15Washington 130 340 68 209

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL≤ 20%

21 - 40%

41 - 60%

61 - 80%

81 - 100%

> 100%

Percent of Prorated Sampling Minimum Achievedin FY 2015—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Sheep*

* As of February 28, 2015. Percentage of sampling minimum achieved is based on 35% of the annual sampling minimum.

(Figure 2)

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL≤ 20%

21 - 40%

41 - 60%

61 - 80%

81 - 100%

> 100%

Percent of Prorated Sampling Minimum Achievedin FY 2015—RSSS and On-farm Surveillance—Goats*

* As of February 28, 2015. Percentage of sampling minimum achieved is based on 40% of the annual sampling minimum. AK, RI and DE have a sampling minimum of 1. IA and MD had a large increase in their minimums due to finding an infected herd in each State in FY 2014.

(Figure 3)

(Table 7)

Scrapie Confirmed Cases in FY 2015As of February 28, 2015

StateSheep Goats

RSSS On-Farm RSSS On-Farm

CO 0 1 1 1

ID 0 26 0 0

OH 1 0 0 0

WI 1 0 0 0

TotalAll States 2 27 1 1

Scrapie Confirmed Cases FY 2015As of February 28, 2015

30

WY

WV

WI1

WA

VT

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RIPA

OR

OK

OH1#

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MA

LA

KYKS

IN

ID26

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO1*/2

CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

Type of Scrapie

RSSS Field Cases

Total

Classical 3 28 31

(Nor98-like)

(0) (0) (0)

Total 3 28 31

VA

IL

(Figure 4)

* First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014. # RSSS positive case with IN serial tag was traced to OH.

WY

WV

WI

WA1

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH5

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI6

ME

MD – 2

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL1

ID

IA7

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO1*/4CA

13

AZ1 AR

AK

AL

(Figure 5)

Scrapie Cases in Goats FY 2002 – FY 2015 As of February 28, 2015

Type of Scrapie

RSSS Field Cases

Total

Classical 1 40 41

(Nor98-like) (0) (0) (0)

Total 1 40 41

* First RSSS positive goat identified in November 2014.

WY

WV

WI1

WA

VT

VAUT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL1

ID1

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO2CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

(Figure 6)

Open Source – 4 Open Infected – 1

Scrapie Infected and Source Flocks: Open Statuses - As of February 28, 2015

MD

WY

WV

WI1

WA

VT

VA

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MA

LA

KYKS

INIL

ID1

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

CO1CA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

(Figure 7)

New Source – 2New Infected – 1

New Scrapie Infected and Source FlocksFY 2015 - As of February 28, 2015

MD

WY

WV

WI

WA

VT

VA1

UT

TX

TN

SD

SC

RI

PA

OR

OK

OH

NY

NV

NM

NJ

NH

NE

ND

NC

MT

MS

MO

MN

MI

ME

MD

MA

LA

KY-1KS

INIL1

ID

IA

HI

GA

FL

DE

CT

COCA

AZ

AR

AK

AL

(Figure 8)

Completed Clean-Up Plan and Released – 2

Released Scrapie Infected and Source FlocksFY 2015 - As of February 28, 2015

Scrapie Flock Certification Program: Participating FlocksAs of February 28, 2015

Total Enrolled Flocks--451• Export Monitored—172• Export Certified—17• Selective Monitored—262

WY6

WV 1

WI20

WA13

VA3

UT4

TX0

TN-13

SD6

SC16

RI-2PA46

OR15

OK5

OH3

NY5

NV1

NM3

NJ-11NE6

ND0

NC-14

MT5

MS11

MO2

MN6

MI7

ME23

MD-2

MA-8

LA7

KY-13KS5

IN31

IL8

ID10

IA6

HI22

GA15

FL 17

DE-0

CT-12

CO1CA

8

AZ0 AR

0

AK1

AL10

VT18

NH-8

(Figure 9)

SFCP Participating Flocks FY 2007 to FY 2015*

FY

'07

FY

'09

FY

'11

FY

'13

FY

'15

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Export CertifiedExport MonitoredSelect Monitored

36

* As of February 28, 2015.Note: Flocks that have “Certified” status on the SFCP Web Page are not listed in this report

because it is a transitional status concurrent with their Export Monitored status.

(Chart 10)