national register of citizens (nrc), proposed...

National Register of Citizens (NRC), Proposed Amendments to Citizenship

Act and Consequences for Assam

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Executive Summary

4Assam Accord & its relevance

Understanding Illegal Immigration in Assam 2

1

NRC & the government's plan

Assamese-Bengali Rivalry & Rise in Muslim Population in Assam

Militancy & strings attached to NRC & Amendment

Effects of NRC publication and amendment on business

6

8

10

12

N A T I O N A L R E G I S T E R O F C I T I Z E N S ( N R C ) , P R O P O S E D A M E N D M E N T S T O T H E C I T I Z E N S H I P A C T A N D R A M I F I C A T I O N S F O R A S S A M

EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe National Register of Citizens (NRC) that is expected to reshape the electoral structure of the

northeastern Indian state of Assam, is slated to be published on or before December 31, 2017. The NRC

will determine whether residents of Assam are genuine citizens of India or fall under the category of illegal

immigrants from Bangladesh. Establishment of citizenship will be done through the declaration of various

documents of proof that need to be produced to NRC officials working under the stewardship of Prateek

Hajela, the state coordinator NRC, Assam. Further, the proposal for amendments to the Citizenship Act has

raised concerns that the center-ruling right-wing Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), might be segregating

individuals seeking citizenship on the basis of religion. The suggested amendments will prove beneficial for

individuals belonging to religious minorities in South Asia, specifically in Muslim-dominated countries such

as Bangladesh and Pakistan to gain Indian citizenship.

This report provides a general understanding of the longstanding issue of illegal immigration and the

massive influx of people from Bangladesh into India, especially after the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation

War. It also sheds light on the All Assam Students Union (AASU) movement and the succeeding

signing of the Assam Accord, which remains unimplemented over the years due to an alleged lack of

political will shown by the Indian National Congress (INC) over its decades-long rule in the state. Further,

issues pertaining to the rise of BJP in the state and its plans with respect to implementing the NRC in

Assam as well as concerns raised in relation to supposed communalisation of the entire process are

elucidated. Furthermore, the report also delves into the traditional Assamese-Bengali divide that led to

several riots, leading to the loss of property and life in the state, while highlighting reasons for the

exponential rise in the Muslim population of Assam.

The rise in population has been seen as a threat by the indigenous Bodo population as it might directly act to

change the demographics of the state. Moreover, amendments proposed to the Citizenship Act allowing

Hindu Bangladeshis to gain citizenship have been also been opposed by local Assamese social organizations,

including political parties such as the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) as well as the Bodo People’s Front

(BPF). On the other hand, Islamist political groups such as the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF)

and extremists militant outfits have opposed the NRC for the abovementioned reasons. Lastly, the

report highlights the ramifications that both NRC and amendments to the Citizenship Act are likely to have

on business prospects in Assam.

1N A T I O N A L R E G I S T E R O F C I T I Z E N S ( N R C ) , P R O P O S E D A M E N D M E N T S T O T H E C I T I Z E N S H I P A C T A N D R A M I F I C A T I O N S F O R A S S A M

UNDERSTANDING ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION IN ASSAM The northeastern state of Assam, that shares a 262 kilometre border with Bangladesh has faced the

problem of illegal immigration since independence, as thousands of Bangladeshi citizens have crossed over

into India due to multiple reasons ranging from better economic prospects to avoiding religious

persecution. According to consecutive census reports, approximately 15 million people have allegedly

migrated into India from Bangladesh and are still pouring in across the seemingly porous Indo-Bangladesh

border. Other bordering Indian states of Meghalaya, Mizoram, Tripura and West Bengal have also faced

similar issues with regards to illegal immigration but have had relatively contrasting views on the subject

which has faced severe opposition in Assam. Entry into India from Bangladesh is comparatively facile, given

the inexpensive false documentation readily available in these border areas that cost anywhere between

three to five USD.

Although consecutive governments in Assam and at the center have claimed to implement measures to

curb the illegal cross-border immigration and trade, the situation as of date remains more or less

unchanged. Moreover, most illegal immigrants coming in from neighboring Bangladesh have been identified

as Bengali Muslims who entered the country seeking financial stability and to escape the oppression of the

Pakistan Army during the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation War.

In recent times, the issue of illegal immigration was taken up by the BJP, the ruling party at the center,

before the Assam Legislative Assembly elections in 2016. In a pre-poll promise, the BJP had claimed that if

elected to power, a BJP-led government would enforce a clampdown on illegal immigration by introducing

stricter regulatory norms while deregistering immigrants from voter lists of the state. BJP had further

alleged that over the years the INC, that was in power in the state for 15 years, had used illegal immigration

of Muslim Bangladeshi citizens as a vote-bank.

Indian security personnel patrol the India- Bangladesh border


However, the recent move of the central government with regards to proposing amendments to the

Citizenship Act of 1955 and the slated December 31, 2017 publishing of the NRC under Supreme Court

supervision, which will draw a distinction between original inhabitants of the state and ‘outsiders’ while

allowing individuals from the minority communities residing in neighboring countries such as Afghanistan,

Bangladesh and Pakistan to gain Indian citizenship has perceivably faced severe opposition from various

political parties and the residents of the state, given Assam’s proximity to Bangladesh. Opposition to mass

migration from Bangladesh into Assam had previously culminated into an agitation launched by the All

AASU and All Assam Gana Sangram Parishad (AAGSP) between 1979-85. The agitation manifested itself

into several incidents of violence against Muslim immigrants, most notably the Nellie massacre that

claimed the lives of approximately 2,191 individuals in Nagaon district. The massacre was witnessed as a

fallout of the decision to hold controversial elections in 1983 during the AASU movement, giving

approximately 4 million Bangladeshi immigrants the right to vote.

Following such incidents, leading to the death of thousands of individuals during this period, the Assam

Accord was signed between the leaders of AASU and then Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi, bringing a

formal end to the Assam Agitation in 1985. However, resentment among the Assamese masses

remains, as many clauses relating to the accord have not been implemented.


ASSAM ACCORD & ITS RELEVANCE

The popular movement headed by AASU ignited following the 1978 by-election in the Mangaldoi

constituency in which election commission officials found an inflated number of allegedly registered

Bengali voters. Following this revelation, AASU demanded a postponement of the election until the

deregistering of foreign nationals from electoral rolls. In 1979, the AASU movement at its helm revolved

around the closure of educational institutions, demonstrations at the state and central government offices

as well as at polling booths.

Following sporadic instances of violence and the Nellie massacre, several rounds of negotiations ensued

between the government and AASU leaders in the early 1980’s leading to the Parliament passing the Illegal

Migrants (Determination by Tribunals) Act (IMDT) that described procedures to detect and deport illegal

immigrants from Assam. However, this act was struck down by the Supreme Court (SC) in 2005 while being

perceived as providing special protection to immigrants affected by the AASU movement. Furthermore,

IMDT was exclusively implemented in Assam while deportation of illegal immigrants from other states in

India falls under the Foreigners Act of 1946. Political remnants of the AASU movement formed the Asom

Gana Parishad (AGP) that was in power in the state twice between 1985-89 and 1996-2001.

Members of AASU during a protest against amendments to Citizenship Act


Several leaders of the AASU movement such as Assam Chief Minister Sarbananda Sonowal and Finance

Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma have now joined national political parties such as the BJP. Further, hearing

a plea by petitioners against the amendment the Supreme Court (SC) on February 21 referred the matter

to a constitutional bench with respect to 13 issues relating to the validity of Assam Accord and specifically

Clause 6A of the Citizenship Act. The hearing over the matter is likely to be held on May 11.


NRC AND THE GOVERNMENT’S PLAN The NRC was first prepared by the Indian government in 1951, and an updated version under the

supervision of the Supreme Court will be published on December 31, 2017. The NRC has continued to be a

delicate political issue with doubts being cast over the ruling BJP government’s intentions of weeding out

Muslim locals and immigrants who have settled in the border state as a result of a large-scale influx of

people from Bangladesh into Assam, since independence. As per the government appointed official,

Prateek Hajela (State Coordinator, NRC Assam), who has been designated to resolve the burning issue, has

asserted that the government will rely on establishment of family trees of people with roots in Assam, or

anywhere in India before March 1971, which is also the cut-off date for determining illegal immigrants as

per the Assam Accord. The draft electoral roll for Assam is likely to be published on January 12, 2018, and

the NRC will decide who gets to vote and who does not.


The BJP which won a decisive victory after forming a coalition with local parties in Assam, winning 60

seats on its own in the 126-member Legislative Assembly is known to have decided to fight the Panchayat

(Village Council) elections independently, to test waters before the 2019 Assam state elections. Several

political observers have predicted that the BJP might receive a sizable mandate in the Village Council

polls, on the basis of its support and expedited implementation of its pre-poll promise of publishing the

NRC. Notably, the NRC publication and Village Council elections are likely to coincide. Opposition parties

have accused the BJP of deviating the public discourse from development issues to the NRC and polarized

rhetoric. While questions have been raised about the timing of the NRC publication, the BJP has sought to

allay fears while blaming certain outfits for spreading rumors and misinformation about the exercise to

ascertain legitimate citizens. The formation of the Citizens’ Rights Preservation Committee (CPRC),

Assam which will comprise of advocates, educationists, and intellectuals from 14 local organizations to

look into matters pertaining to the alleged targeting of religious, linguistic minorities in the state is

supposed to ensure a free and fair NRC. CPRC is also a party in the ongoing case in the Supreme Court

with respect to the definition of an original inhabitant.

Bengali immigrants moving into Assam


ASSAMESE-BENGALI RIVALRY & RISE IN MUSLIM POPULATION IN ASSAM

One of the core issues for the opposition projected by local civilian and political bodies to the rising

numbers of Bangladeshi infiltrators into Assam has been the longstanding rivalry between the ethnic

Assamese populace and the Bengali-speaking settlers in the state. The fertile soil of Assam was known to

attract peasant cultivators from Bengal, large numbers of them Muslims, while a commercial boom

brought in traders from various parts of the country into the state during the British era.

The migration of workers, traders and bureaucrats into Assam from multiple locations, specifically from

Bengal, added to the existing heterogeneous nature of Assam’s demographics leading to increasing job

opportunities for such migrants in the state. This, in turn, led to a sense of discontent among the

indigenous Assamese speaking population of the state which saw a migration-induced population growth

rate of 138 percent between 1901-1951. The Assamese-Bengali rivalry was furthered by the supposed

control Bengali-speaking migrants had on the central institutions of the state that were allegedly

recruiting Bengalis instead of the indigenous Assamese people. The discontent further devolved into a

language agitation spearheaded by the locals in Assam against the Bengalis who had migrated into the

state.

Composition of Assam Legislative Assembly


In the post-independence period

between 1951-61, Assam’s

population increased at a rate of 36

percent. In the decade to follow, it

rose by 35 percent while

subsequently rising at a steady rate

in the following years, allegedly due

to the influx of Bangladeshi

Muslims into the state.

According to the 2011 census

conducted by the government, the

population of Assam stood at 31.2

million, comprising of 10.7 million

resident Muslims, forming

approximately 34 percent of the

population. The census also

indicated a 30 percent rise in the

population of Muslims between

2001-11, a change of 3.3 points as

compared to the national average

of 0.8. Moreover, nine out of the 32

districts in Assam, 9 are Muslim

majority districts including Dhubri,

Goalpara, Barpeta, Morigaon,

Nagaon, Karimganj, Hailakandi,

Darrangand and Bongaigaon. These

swelling numbers have been

blamed by local political outfits

such as the BJP on the illegal

immigration from Bangladesh and

were used by the right-wing party

as a rallying point before the Assam

State Elections of 2016. In the

Bangladesh-bordering Barak Valley,

Bengali is already the official

language with a majority Bengali-

speaking population comprising

predominantly of Bengali Migrants

from Bangladesh.


MILITANCY & STRINGS ATTACHED TO THE NRC AND AMENDMENT LOCAL INSURGENCIESMilitancy has been a primary issue for any government that takes charge of Assam over the years as several

indigenous and cross-border groups have targeted the state for their own nefarious motives. While

militancy in the state has been considerably stemmed due to efforts of consecutive governments and the

bringing of tribal and other indigenous groups into the mainstream, several active militant groups continue

to operate in certain districts of Assam and have allegedly been involved in numerous attacks on

army personnel and civilians in the recent past.

The militant attack in Kokrajhar led to 13 civilian deaths while the involvement of cadres of the

National Democratic Front of Bodoland-Sangbijit (NDFB-S) was confirmed following a statement

issued by the militant group. Several other incidents similar to the aforementioned have been recorded in

Assam in 2015- 16. Recently three soldiers of the 15 Kumaon Regiment were martyred following an

ambush by suspected members of the United Liberation Front of Assam-Independent (ULFA-I) and a

National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K). Further, a BJP leader was shot at on

November 28 by unidentified miscreants, directing the Assam Police to review the security of BJP

leaders in the state. Moreover, following the central government’s economic push for demonetization,

the state was out on high alert for cases pertaining to militants attempting to exchange cash in banks.


Image of the Kokrajhar attack in August 2016

Given that the issue of the amendment to the Citizenship Act relates to granting citizenship to minorities in

Bangladesh, the proposed amendment is liable to cause discontent amongst the operational militant groups

in Assam that have predominantly opposed the Indian government on the basis of their identity politics.

The influx of Bangladeshi immigrants into the state might recommence certain militant movements in the

state against the introduction of Bengalis into mainstream Assam. The ULFA-I and other militant groups

have opposed the amendment vehemently and warned the central and state governments against any

recalibration of the status-quo leaving a hastened implementation of the Assam Accord, specifically clause

6, that guarantees constitutional protection to the Assamese people.

Union Home Minister Rajnath Singh complimented the agencies involved in the updation of the National

Register of Citizens (NRC) which is underway with the help of 100 tribunals to supposedly weed out illegal

immigrants who also have voting rights. Further, the Home Minister gave a commitment to the Assamese

people with regards to the appropriate implementation of Clause 6 of the Assam Accord. This move has

been perceived as a positive sign by members of the BJP-led alliance in Assam, however concerns over the

amendments to the Citizenship Act still remain.


Security vehicle ambushed by suspected ULFA militants

RAMIFICATIONS ON BUSINESS

While effects of the ongoing deliberations on amending the Citizenship Act to allow minorities from

neighboring countries to gain citizenship and the NRC cannot be predicted at the time of writing, the

protests and threats issued by militant outfits against the amendment and NRC exercise are liable to raise

concerns in the minds of enterprises intending to invest in Assam.

Assam does not enjoy the status of being an investment-friendly state due to multiple reasons, including its

its landlocked nature, the unavailability of transportation services and legitimate direct airports and

waterways for international trade. Further, issues such as militancy, corruption and strong political

forces that have been viewed in the past as anti-investment contribute to Assam’s problems in being an

investment hub.

However, Assam is one of the major producers of crude oil and natural gas in the country with multiple oil

refineries scattered across the state. Nevertheless, the oil and natural gas industry in Assam has also been

targeted by local organizations and protest groups in the past, over a multitude of issues. In recent times,

several civil society organizations vowed to resist the privatization of oil fields in Geleki, Shivsagar District

citing that benefits of the investment should be elucidated before the people of Assam before any such step

is actually taken. Additionally, 12 other oil fields are currently being proposed for the auctioning process. A

backlash from natives of the region might be around the corner against the investment in Geleki and other

oil and gas producing regions in Assam and would result in growing concerns among businesses

intending on investing in Assam, especially following the election of the BJP government which had claimed

of turning Assam into a business pivot. Assurances from the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas

have failed to appease locals opposing the developmental push by the BJP government.


Assam CM Sarbananda Sonowal and Revenue Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, hailed as architects of the BJP's rise in Assam

Keeping the abovementioned in mind, in the case that a bolstered movement is initiated by the protesting

parties in the state, a perception might build amongst investing enterprises against their plans to aid the

BJP government’s intentions of radical reforms with regards to investment and development. Constant

opposition to steps taken by the incumbent government by civilian groups and political outfits might act to

derail any agenda that the government persists with and could hinder the prospects of Assam to grow out

of its shell as a state that has had a troubled past pertaining to industrial growth. However, the landslide

majority achieved by the BJP and the firm stand taken by its ministers with regards to certain issues might

be a double-edged sword in the making. The proposed induction of Hindu Bangladeshis into Assam, a

measure that is liable to further strain ties with the indigenous population might, in reality, be a move that

would help the BJP secure a vote bank for itself in the northeastern state on the premise of the allegedly

unfavorable treatment meted out to minorities in Bangladesh. That said, the move might have the potential

of alienating a considerable section of people in the state that voted for the right-wing party in the state

elections in 2016. Thus, Assam’s tryst with minorities seems to be an unending and complicated affair to say

the least and could develop into a handicap for the BJP’s plan on expanding its political base in the

northeast in the near term.

N A T I O N A L R E G I S T E R O F C I T I Z E N S ( N R C ) , P R O P O S E D A M E N D M E N T S T O T H E C I T I Z E N S H I P A C T A N D R A M I F I C A T I O N S F O R A S S A M 13

national register of citizens (nrc), proposed...

Documents