National Program Against Drought (PRONACOSE)

“Predict, plan, prepare: how to stop drought becoming famineSeminar”

Rome, Italy, June 2017

Outline

• Introduction on the problem of drought in Mexico.• Background of PRONACOSE.• Transition from reactive to preventive approach.• Conceptualization.• Components of the program.• Application of the program.• Results of the program.• Future work.

Vulnerability of Mexico due to geographic location

Statics on Water

in México, 2015

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

01

/01

/19

94

31

/05

/19

94

28

/10

/19

94

27

/03

/19

95

24

/08

/19

95

21

/01

/19

96

19

/06

/19

96

16

/11

/19

96

15

/04

/19

97

12

/09

/19

97

09

/02

/19

98

09

/07

/19

98

06

/12

/19

98

05

/05

/19

99

02

/10

/19

99

29

/02

/20

00

28

/07

/20

00

25

/12

/20

00

24

/05

/20

01

21

/10

/20

01

20

/03

/20

02

17

/08

/20

02

14

/01

/20

03

13

/06

/20

03

10

/11

/20

03

SPI

Time

SPI Presa la Amistad (1994-2003)

SPI (3 months) Abnormally dryModerate Drought Severe DroughtExtreme Drought Exceptional Drought

Rio Bravo basinMarch 2003

(MSDI (3 months): Precipitation-Soil Moisture-Runoff, MOSEMM)

1,551.90

390.51

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

01

/01

/19

94

31

/05

/19

94

28

/10

/19

94

27

/03

/19

95

24

/08

/19

95

21

/01

/19

96

19

/06

/19

96

16

/11

/19

96

15

/04

/19

97

12

/09

/19

97

09

/02

/19

98

09

/07

/19

98

06

/12

/19

98

05

/05

/19

99

02

/10

/19

99

29

/02

/20

00

28

/07

/20

00

25

/12

/20

00

24

/05

/20

01

21

/10

/20

01

20

/03

/20

02

17

/08

/20

02

14

/01

/20

03

13

/06

/20

03

10

/11

/20

03

Sto

rage

(H

m3

)

Time

Storage evolution of Presa La Amistad(1994-2003)

Storage Average (1993-2017)

Introduction on the problem of drought in Mexico, Río Bravo 1994-2003

March 2003March 2003

600.34

722.39

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

01

/01

/20

08

01

/03

/20

08

30

/04

/20

08

29

/06

/20

08

28

/08

/20

08

27

/10

/20

08

26

/12

/20

08

24

/02

/20

09

25

/04

/20

09

24

/06

/20

09

23

/08

/20

09

22

/10

/20

09

21

/12

/20

09

19

/02

/20

10

20

/04

/20

10

19

/06

/20

10

18

/08

/20

10

17

/10

/20

10

Sto

rage

(H

m3

)

Time

Storage evolution of Cutzamala System (2008-2010)

Storage Average (1995-2017)

March 2008

Introduction on the problem of drought in Mexico, Cutzamala 2008-2010

Cutzamala BasinMarch 2008

(MSDI (3months): Precipitation-Soil Moisture-Runoff, MOSEMM)

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

01

/01

/20

08

20

/02

/20

08

10

/04

/20

08

30

/05

/20

08

19

/07

/20

08

07

/09

/20

08

27

/10

/20

08

16

/12

/20

08

04

/02

/20

09

26

/03

/20

09

15

/05

/20

09

04

/07

/20

09

23

/08

/20

09

12

/10

/20

09

01

/12

/20

09

20

/01

/20

10

11

/03

/20

10

30

/04

/20

10

19

/06

/20

10

08

/08

/20

10

27

/09

/20

10

16

/11

/20

10

SPI

Time

SPI Cutzamala System (Atotonilco) (2008-2010)

SPI (3 months) Abnormally dry Moderate Drought

Severe Drought Extreme Drought Exceptional Drought

March 2008

Introduction on the problem of drought in Mexico, Cutzamala 2008-2010

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

500

540

580

620

660

700

740

780

01

-oct

.-0

8

01

-no

v.-0

8

01

-dic

.-0

8

01

-en

e.-

09

01

-feb

.-0

9

01

-ma

r.-0

9

01

-ab

r.-0

9

01

-ma

y.-0

9

01

-ju

n.-

09

01

-ju

l.-0

9

01

-ago

.-0

9

01

-sep

.-0

9

01

-oct

.-0

9

01

-no

v.-0

9

01

-dic

.-0

9

01

-en

e.-

10

01

-feb

.-1

0

01

-ma

r.-1

0

01

-ab

r.-1

0

01

-ma

y.-1

0

01

-ju

n.-

10

01

-ju

l.-1

0

01

-ago

.-1

0

01

-sep

.-1

0

01

-oct

.-1

0

01

-no

v.-1

0

01

-dic

.-1

0

01

-en

e.-

11

01

-feb

.-1

1

01

-ma

r.-1

1

01

-ab

r.-1

1

01

-ma

y.-1

1

01

-ju

n.-

11

01

-ju

l.-1

1

NAMINO Simulación sin Red Simulacion Red 10%Simulacion Red 12.5% Simulacion Red 15% Simulacion Red 20%Curva Indice 2005 Curva Índice 2009

Syst

em r

eser

voir

sto

rage

(h

m3)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

14

29

38

71

81

95

100

100

100

100

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

5

19

38

52

62

86

90

100

C.I.= 526.1 hm3

Alm reg. = 532.04 hm3

24 months

Introduction on the problem of drought in Mexico, Cutzamala 2008-2010

100

140

180

220

260

300

340

380

420

460

500

540

580

620

660

700

740

780

01

-oct

.-0

8

01

-no

v.-0

8

01

-dic

.-0

8

01

-en

e.-

09

01

-feb

.-0

9

01

-ma

r.-0

9

01

-ab

r.-0

9

01

-ma

y.-0

9

01

-ju

n.-

09

01

-ju

l.-0

9

01

-ago

.-0

9

01

-sep

.-0

9

01

-oct

.-0

9

01

-no

v.-0

9

01

-dic

.-0

9

01

-en

e.-

10

01

-feb

.-1

0

01

-ma

r.-1

0

01

-ab

r.-1

0

01

-ma

y.-1

0

01

-ju

n.-

10

01

-ju

l.-1

0

01

-ago

.-1

0

01

-sep

.-1

0

01

-oct

.-1

0

01

-no

v.-1

0

01

-dic

.-1

0

01

-en

e.-

11

01

-feb

.-1

1

01

-ma

r.-1

1

01

-ab

r.-1

1

01

-ma

y.-1

1

01

-ju

n.-

11

01

-ju

l.-1

1

NAMINO Simulación sin Red Simulacion Red 10%Simulacion Red 12.5% Simulacion Red 15% Simulacion Red 20%Curva Indice 2005 Curva Índice 2009

Syst

em r

eser

voir

sto

rage

(h

m3)

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

14

29

38

71

81

95

100

100

100

100

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

5

5

19

38

52

62

86

90

100

C.I.= 437.9 hm3

Alm reg. = 319.23 hm3

24 months

-2.5

-2

-1.5

-1

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

01

/01

/20

11

26

/01

/20

11

20

/02

/20

11

17

/03

/20

11

11

/04

/20

11

06

/05

/20

11

31

/05

/20

11

25

/06

/20

11

20

/07

/20

11

14

/08

/20

11

08

/09

/20

11

03

/10

/20

11

28

/10

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11

22

/11

/20

11

17

/12

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11

11

/01

/20

12

05

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12

01

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12

26

/03

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12

20

/04

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12

15

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12

09

/06

/20

12

04

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12

29

/07

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12

23

/08

/20

12

17

/09

/20

12

12

/10

/20

12

06

/11

/20

12

01

/12

/20

12

26

/12

/20

12

SPI

Time

SPI Presa la Amistad (2011-2013)

SPI (3 months) Abnormally dry Moderate Drought

Severe Drought Extreme Drought Exceptional Drought

Introduction on the problem of drought in Mexico, whole country 2011-2012

1,792.25

788.61

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

01

/01

/20

11

26

/01

/20

11

20

/02

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11

17

/03

/20

11

11

/04

/20

11

06

/05

/20

11

31

/05

/20

11

25

/06

/20

11

20

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/20

11

14

/08

/20

11

08

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11

03

/10

/20

11

28

/10

/20

11

22

/11

/20

11

17

/12

/20

11

11

/01

/20

12

05

/02

/20

12

01

/03

/20

12

26

/03

/20

12

20

/04

/20

12

15

/05

/20

12

09

/06

/20

12

04

/07

/20

12

29

/07

/20

12

23

/08

/20

12

17

/09

/20

12

12

/10

/20

12

06

/11

/20

12

01

/12

/20

12

26

/12

/20

12

Sto

rage

(H

m3

)

Time

Storage evolution of Presa La Amistad (2011-2012)

Storage Average (1993-2017)

Rio Bravo basinDecember 2012

(MSDI (3months): Precipitation-Soil Moisture-Runoff, MOSEMM)

December2012

December2012

• From 2011 to 2012, the worst drought since 1941 was presented.

• It affected about 90% of the country, caused losses of 1.2 billion of USD according to the U.S.Agriculture Department, and 11.6 billion of USD according to an estimation of the Mexican AgricultureCommission.

• The North was the most affected region.

• Because of the 2011-2012 drought, it was necessary to take measurements of social, economic andfiscal policies.

• In that year it was implemented: “Strategy for attention of the states affected by drought” and in2012: “Agreement of actions to mitigate drought effects through federal entities”.

• Drought attention had two components: humanitarian and productive. Potable water supply, adequatewater management and sustainable use of natural resources attended the humanitarian component,and the second one consisted on support to affected areas, maintain productive capacities, activationof insurance schemes and financing.

• In 2013 was designed and implemented the National Program Against the Drought (PRONACOSE).

• The principal objective is to identify actions that allow to make opportune decisions to prevent andmitigate drought affectations at River Basin Council level (Política Pública para la Sequía, 2014).

Drought percent area in Mexico2003-2017

MDM: CONAGUA (SMN) 2017

Background of the program

Transition from reactive to preventive approach• The program was conceived in transition between governmental paradigms and

instruments of management.

• In that moment drought was attended by traditional mechanisms of response withfederal resources.

• At the same time it was define the implementation of new policies with preventiveapproach with three lines: Programs of Preventive and Mitigation Actions ofDrought (PMPMS), legal instruments to guarantee water for human consumptionand attention by coordinate mitigation actions.

PMPMS: CONAGUA, 2015 (Política Pública para la Sequía, 2014)

Social

Environmental

Economic

Global

Vulnerability maps with 24 indicators (2016)

PRONACOSE

ComponentsC

om

po

nen

ts

Elaboration of PRONACOSE (to implement the

guidelines)

Drought attention

Drought monitoring

Programs

To develop the indicators of the drought

condition

Measures to prevent and face the drought at basin

levels

Interinstitutional Committee

Committeeof experts

To monitor the actions of the government agencies

to face the drought

To evaluate PRONACOSE and to make

recommendations

Prevention

Mitigation

(Política Pública para la Sequía, 2014)

Actions

To match the local PMPMS with the intensity of drought

To determine the actions that can be applied

Information

To generate relevant information for the River Basin Councils in drought condition

To have meetings with Basin Councils

Drought Monitor

To get the results To analyze the current situation

Application of the programUnder a condition of drought

Application of the programCase of Oaxaca (December 2016- June 2017)

Results• 2013: analysis of the aspects of monitoring and early warning; development of

Programs of Preventive and Mitigation Actions of Drought (PMPMS, its acronym inSpanish); creation of Inter-institutional Committee of Droughts and FloodsAttention; celebration of four Committee sessions.

• 2014: improving of drought monitoring, Mexican Drought Monitor published every15 days; PMPMS implementation; development of vulnerability of droughtmethodology; historical drought occurrence review; celebration of four Committeesessions.

• 2015: 48 PMPMS developed and implemented at Basin Councils and Cities;updating of vulnerability methodology with 24 indicators; drought risk evaluation;celebration of four Committee sessions.

• 2016: development of complementary tool of Mexican Drought Monitor, whichincreases the quality of drought monitoring: Mexican Multivariate Drought Monitor(MOSEMM, its acronym in Spanish); updating of drought vulnerability; applicationof preventive actions at basin council by awareness of drought occurrence andreview of actions that could be applied; celebration of three Committee sessions.

• 2017: celebration of ordinary and extraordinary sessions in order to attend thesevere drought case of Oaxaca; evaluation of Federal Programs actions to reducedrought vulnerability of population.

Future work• According to the Integrated Drought Management Programme (IDMP), the 3 pillars

of national drought policy, which are part of integrated drought management, are:

1. Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems;

2. Vulnerability and Impact Assessment;

3. Preparedness and Mitigation Actions.

So the future work is focused on strengthening the corresponding actions to thosepillars:

• Applying efficiently the complementary tool of drought monitoring: MOSEMM;

• Developing and apply an effective early warning system;

• Reviewing the Federal Programs actions in order to evaluate the impact that theyhad in drought vulnerability evolution;

• Improvement of risk evaluation in order to prioritize public policies applications andinduce risk reduction;

• Reviewing, evaluation and updating of the PMPMS in terms of application andeffectiveness;

M. Eng. Horacio Rubio GutiérrezManager of Engineering and

Binational Affairshoracio.rubio@conagua.gob.mx

http://www.gob.mx/conagua/acciones-y-programas/programa-nacional-contra-la-sequia-pronacose-programas-de-medidas-preventivas-y-de-mitigacion-a-la-

sequia-pmpms-para-ciudades