national january 2009 mclaughlin & associates 1 methodology: this poll of 1,000 likely general...

NationalJanuary 2009

McLaughlin & Associateswww.mclaughlinonline.com

1

Methodology:Methodology:

This poll of 1,000 likely general election voters in the United This poll of 1,000 likely general election voters in the United States was conducted between January 14-15, 2009. All States was conducted between January 14-15, 2009. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviews were conducted via telephone by professional

interviewers. Interview selection was random within interviewers. Interview selection was random within predetermined election units – in this case, the fifty states. These predetermined election units – in this case, the fifty states. These units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a units were structured to correlate with actual voter turnout in a

general election.general election.

This poll of 1,000 likely general election voters has an accuracy This poll of 1,000 likely general election voters has an accuracy of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval. of +/- 3.1% at a 95% confidence interval.



2

6. The Majority of Voters Approve of the Alternative Republican Proposals Tested for the Economic Stimulus plan, Particularly Tax Cuts:

* 86% approve of putting the entire economic stimulus package online.

* 82% approve of giving small businesses that employ less than 500 people a 10% federal tax cut to help small businesses retain and create new jobs.

* 70% approve of cutting corporate tax rates to create jobs.

* 67% approve of eliminating federal income taxes on unemployment benefits.

* 67% approve of cutting income taxes for all people who pay income taxes by an average of $500 per family.

*61% approve of a $7,500 tax credit for a new home purchase as long as the buyer puts 5% down.

*61% approve of requiring a guarantee that there will be no tax increases down the road as a result of temporarily increasing government spending.

Major Findings



3

Which do you believe is the best way to stimulate the economy and create jobs?

Cut taxes for businesses and individuals to create jobs. OR, Increase federal government spending

for government programs to create jobs.

Taxes Spending

East 60 30

Mid-West 56 31

South 66 27

West 57 36

Generic Vote Cong. Rep. 77 17

Generic Vote Cong. Dem. 46 45

Generic Vote Cong. Und. 65 22

Voted McCain 08 77 16

Voted Obama 08 48 43

Did not Vote 08 57 27

Republican 75 18

Democrat 51 40

Independent 61 30

Approve Obama’s Econ plan 51 40

Disapprove Obama’s Econ plan

84 9

Liberal 48 45

Moderate 55 33

Conservative 73 20

Ticketsplitter 64 27

Income: Under $60,000 56 34

Income: Over $60,0000 66 26

White 63 28

Black 56 40

Hispanic 55 36

Under 55 61 30

Over 55 61 29

Men 62 30

Women 59 30

61

30

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Cut Taxes Increase GovernmentSpending

DK/Refused



4

President-elect Obama says that the United States may have a deficit of over a trillion dollars for several years.

In your opinion which is better for the economy? Increasing government spending making the deficit over a trillion dollars a year for several years. OR, Holding the line on federal government spending to cut the federal

deficit

Increase Hold Line

East 31 59

Mid-West 27 63

South 24 70

West 34 56







Republican 18 78

Democrat 38 53

Independent 26 63



10 86

Liberal 37 54

Moderate 32 58

Conservative 20 73



Income: Over $60,0000 27 63

White 27 65

Black 33 60

Hispanic 26 59

Under 55 30 63

Over 55 25 64

Men 29 65

Women 28 62

28

63

9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

IncreasingGovernment Spending

Holding the Line onFederal Spending

DK/Refused



5

From what you have heard or read, do you approve or disapprove of President-elect

Barack Obama’s Economic Recovery Plan?

Approve Disapprove

East 66 20

Mid-West 67 16

South 64 22

West 61 19





Voted Obama 08 89 4


Republican 38 41

Democrat 88 4

Independent 61 17



0 100

Liberal 82 8

Moderate 74 13

Conservative 47 33



Income: Over $60,0000 61 25

White 59 23

Black 89 4

Hispanic 82 9

Under 55 69 20

Over 55 61 19

Men 60 23

Women 68 16

64

26

38

19

9 1116

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Approve Strongly Smwt. Dis-approve

Smwt. Strongly DK/Ref.



6

President-elect Obama and the Democrats are proposing a one trillion dollar stimulus package which they say will

save or create 4 million jobs. That works out to over $250,000 per job, but these government jobs will not

average $250,000 they will really average about $45,000 to $50,000 per job. Knowing this, would you agree or

disagree with the following statement “This stimulus package is seriously flawed; the federal government

should not spend $250,000 per job to create a 45,000 to $50,000 job.”

Agree Disagree

East 58 26

Mid-West 50 30

South 55 29

West 56 30







Republican 63 26

Democrat 50 30

Independent 53 33



68 24

Liberal 46 34

Moderate 51 30

Conservative 62 26



Income: Over $60,0000 54 32

White 56 28

Black 39 32

Hispanic 58 30

Under 55 56 29

Over 55 54 28

Men 57 33

Women 53 25

55

30

24

29

14 1517

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Agree Strongly Smwt. Disagree Smwt. Strongly DK/ref.



7

Also President-elect Obama wants to send checks of $1,000 or $500 to people who pay no federal

income taxes as a –quote- “refundable tax credit”-end quote-. Do you think that is fair or unfair to

give refund checks to people who do not pay federal income taxes?

Fair Unfair

East 18 72

Mid-West 20 70

South 18 73

West 24 65







Republican 11 82

Democrat 29 59

Independent 17 76



8 88

Liberal 29 58

Moderate 21 71

Conservative 14 79



Income: Over $60,0000 16 76

White 17 74

Black 32 52

Hispanic 23 67

Under 55 22 70

Over 55 17 73

Men 18 74

Women 22 68

20

71

10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Fair Unfair DK/Refused

APPROVE/DISAPPROVE TOTAL GOP DEM IND. Men Women

A proposal to put the entire economic stimulus package online so everyone in the country would know what is in the bill.

86/8 84/11 89/6 86/8 87/8 85/8

A proposal to give every small business that employs less than 500 people a 10% federal tax cut to help small businesses retain and create new jobs.

82/12 82/13 85/9 80/15 82/14 83/10

Currently, the federal government taxes unemployment benefits, there is a proposal that would eliminate federal income taxes on unemployment benefits

67/23 64/26 74/18 61/29 67/24 68/22

A proposal to cut income taxes for all people who pay income taxes by an average of $500 per family. This proposal would cut taxes for about 105 million people.

67/24 66/26 70/21 63/27 66/27 68/21

President-elect Obama wants to “temporarily” ramp up spending to stimulate the economy. There is a proposal requiring that this legislation must include a guarantee that there will be no tax increases down the road because of the increase in federal spending.

61/26 52/33 70/18 57/32 61/28 60/24

A $7,500 tax credit for new home purchases as long as the buyer puts 5% down. 61/28 57/33 68/22 59/31 61/29 62/26

There are other proposals for the Economic Stimulus plan, would you tell me whether you approve or disapprove of each?



9

1. Creating jobs through tax cuts is very popular.

2. Voters want the Congress to hold the line on deficit spending.

3. The small business tax cut is a winner.

Conclusions

national january 2009 mclaughlin & associates 1 methodology: this poll of 1,000 likely general...

Documents