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Transmission of offshore wind power

Dr Richard SmithFuture Transmission Networks Manager

2

Gas CCGT Coal CCS

Nuclear Wind Renewable

Interconnector CHP Other

The UK generation mix is changing

2020 generation capacity

~110GW

Change (GW)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

Generation Demand

Gas CCS Interconnector

Nuclear Wind Other renewable

Gas Coal Nuclear

Oil Electric cars* Heat pumps*

The changing mix (GW)

3

The delivery challenge:renewable generation connections

2020 transmission connected renewable generation (GW)

0

10

20

30

40

Currentlyconnected

Contracted

Currently connected Under construction

Consents approved Awaiting consents

Scoping

Target

How are we doing against the

Government targets?

Data source: National Grid TNQCU – August 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.

4

The delivery challenge:renewable generation connections

2020 transmission connected renewable generation (GW)

0

10

20

30

40

Currentlyconnected

Contracted

Currently connected Offshore wind Other renewable

Target

How are we doing against the

Government targets?

Data source: National Grid TNQCU – August 2011; National Grid 2011 SYS. Connected renewable generation excludes pumped storage.

5

Offshore generation scenarios

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2011 2015 2020 2025 2030

GW

Slow Progression Gone Green Accelerated Grow th Sustainable Grow th

6

France

existing electricity network

potential wind farm sites

potential nuclear sites

interconnectors

The transmission delivery challenge

France

Netherlands

Belgium

Norway

Ireland

7

Technology development

Technology

Research & DevelopmentOngoing research into state of the art technology and future growth requirements which may offer efficiencies through larger capacities, greater reliability and increased control options.

Technology EvolutionManufacturers confident of larger HVDC VSC converters and cables will be available in the short to medium times.

Promoting standardisation of assets

Extruded HVDC Cables

HVDC Offshore Projects

8

Planning consentsSellindge

(Kent)2GW HVDC

converter

Sellindge (Kent)

2GW HVDC converter

WestminsterWestminster

9

GenerationDemand

Variable generation

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

01-J

an

05-J

an

10-J

an

15-J

an

20-J

an

25-J

an

30-J

an

01-J

an

05-J

an

10-J

an

15-J

an

20-J

an

25-J

an

30-J

an

MW

Large generation

Inflexible generation

Active distribution networks

Smart(er) grids & meters, energy storage

Active demand

Time of use tariffs

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

00:0

0

01:0

0

02:0

0

03:0

0

04:0

0

05:0

0

06:0

0

07:0

0

08:0

0

09:0

0

10:0

0

11:0

0

12:0

0

13:0

0

14:0

0

15:0

0

16:0

0

17:0

0

18:0

0

19:0

0

20:0

0

21:0

0

22:0

0

23:0

0

Time of Day

Ele

ctri

city

Dem

and

(GW

)

2020 Demand ~ 15GWh (daily) - 1.5million vehicles

Typical winter dailydemand

Pea

k C

omm

utin

g Ti

me

12,000 miles p.a.

Pea

k C

omm

utin

g Ti

me

Optimal Charging Period

Distributed generation

Smarter transmission

Smart zonesHVDCSeries compensationWAM

How will we balance supplyand demand?

10

82 year daily wind loadfactor

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

01-Oct

01-Nov

01-Dec

01-Jan

01-Feb

01-Mar

01-Apr

01-May

01-Jun

01-Jul

01-Aug

01-Sep

Lo

ad

fac

tor

11

Daily wind loadfactor percentiles82 year data set - 15 day rolling average

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

01

-Oct

01

-No

v

01

-De

c

01

-Ja

n

01

-Fe

b

01

-Ma

r

01

-Ap

r

01

-Ma

y

01

-Ju

n

01

-Ju

l

01

-Au

g

01

-Se

p

Da

ily w

ind

loa

dfa

cto

r

99th percentile

95th percentile

90th percentile

50th percentile

10th percentile

5th percentile

1st percentile

12

Gone Green installed capacity

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

GW

CCGT Wind CCGT at 90% operational availability Wind at 35% loadfactor

13

• National Grid’s focus: ensuring we facilitate a secure, low carbon energy solution

• Integrated transmission solutions are key to maximising deliverability of offshore wind

• CCGTs important managing variability and balancing – implications for gas transmission network

• Significant change in UK generation mix• Offshore wind a key feature• Planning, financing and technology uncertainties exist• Increased volatility brings new balancing challenges

Summary