narnolia securities limited india equity analytics strategy tips 16th dec, 2013
TRANSCRIPT
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8/13/2019 Narnolia Securities Limited India Equity Analytics Strategy Tips 16th Dec, 2013
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email: [email protected], website : www.narnolia.com
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
402, 4th floor 7/1, Lords Sinha Road Kolkata 700071, Ph 033-32011233 Toll Free no : 1-800-345-4000
LR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013 16th Dec 2013
JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, the company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25%
YoY. This total volume of JLR includes 6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. Thismonthsperformance in particular is marked b
stellar performance by Jaguar .................................................... ( Page : 2)
IEA-Equity
Strategy
16th Dec, 2013
Amara Raja Batteries Limited : OPTIMISTIC MANAGEMENT SPEECH "BUY" 6th Dec 2013
Amara Raja had posted its 2QYFY14 sales at Rs 805 Cr up by 12.3 % YoY on the back of the strong demand in the automotive replacement and
industrial battery business. There was double digit growth in both of these segments.The automotive battery business reported double digit
growth in revenues........................................ ( Page : 16-17)
NIIT Tech : "Next Journey to Billion Dollar" "BUY" 9th Dec 2013
NIIT Tech management expressed its confidence of driving growth in the organization and looking at an aspirational goal of USD 1 billion
revenue in next 5 years.its order wins in the recent quarters have been healthy, lending visibility on revenue growth. At a CMP of Rs332, trade
at 7.5x FY14E earnings. We retain buy view on the stock with a price target of Rs360 (revised from Rs310).............................................
Page : 14- 15)
TATA Steel Ltd : "HOLD" 10th Dec 2013
Over the past two quarters, Tata Steel has reported strong growth in volumes in the domestic operations despite weak demand. Its Europe
operations have been broadly better than expectations indicating some stability and predictability from its Europe operations. Tata Steel
earnings growth is likely to be driven by higher sales volume in FY2014-15 on the back of 2.9mn ton brownfield expansion project in
Jamshedpur and steady improvement in profitability of European operations. We have arrived at "Hold" rating on the stock watching our stepfor a target price of Rs.340 in near term. ................... ( Page : 10-13)
LUPIN : "Optimistic Guidance " "BUY" 11th Dec 2013
The management of the company in its latest interaction said that company is confident of logging 15-20 % CAGR in US and India in the days to
come on the back of rich pipeline as well as acquisition based strategy . ( Page : 8-9)
COAL INDIA : "BUY" 12th Dec 2013
We expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of poor offtake capabilities of CIL. Also, we expect CIL
margins to decline during FY2014 due to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other expenses.News flows related to further
divestment in CIL by the government is likely to keep the stock price under pressure in our view. we recommend Buy rating on the stock with
our previous target price Rs.350............................................ ( Page : 5-7)
Persistent System : "Persistently innovating.." "BUY" 13th Dec 2013
With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationships with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we
upgrade this stock and expect for better earning visibility across niche IT players.we rateBUYon the stock and we revise our target price from
Rs 890to Rs 960. At a CMP of Rs 876, stock trades at 13.8x FY14E earnings........................ ( Page : 3-4)
India Equity Analytics
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JLR wholly owned subsidiary of Tata Motors come up with November 2013 volume, t
company for the month sold 37403 units up by 25% YoY. This total volume of JLR includ
6244 units of Jaguar and 31159 units of Land Rover. This monthsperformance in particula
marked by stellar performance by Jaguar with volume growth of almost 55 % YoY while tLand Rover portfolio has grown by 20 % YoY.The new F type Jaguar is getting go
response.Company manage to sell 557 units of F-Type this month.
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
The Table shows the Performance of Land Rover Portfolio : Model Wise.
JLR VOLUME UPDATE : NOVEMBER 2013
The performance of JLR on Geography Wise has been Tabulated as under :
The various models under JLR portfolio have grown well for the company however Jag
XJmodel has done exceptionally well .The company has sold 6244 units of Jaguar for t
Nov2013.The Land Rover is also growing good for the company. The Range Rover Evoque h
grown by 10% YoY to 10953 units for the month.
The Table shows the Performance of Jaguar Portfolio : Model Wise.
Strong Performance For The Month.
(Source: Company/Eastwi
(Source: Company/Eastwi
We continue to like Tata Motors, led by strong volume traction at JLR to continue over t
coming months as new Range Rover Sport get rolled out across more geographies,
addition to continued traction from RR and F-Type, which in turn will boost realisation a
margin.
The volumes for JLR across geographies came relatively, good all the geographies ha
done well except for UK where volume de grew by 1%YoY. The markets of china continu
to do well for the company. The Chinese market have grown over 40% YoY for the J
followed by ROW markets.
The stock is trading at price of Rs 370 on the back of splendid performance from its ca
machine JLR portfolio. We are still positive for the stock in the light of manageme
commentary and continuous good performance by JLR though domestic operations are s
painful for the company.
Earlier management said that company would invest 1.5 billion pounds for new technica
advanced aluminum vehicle architecture in forthcoming models. The first new model
utilize this innovative architecture will be an all-new mid-sized sports sedan from Jagu
The product will be launched by 2015.
(Source: Company/Eastwi
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
Model Nov-13 Nov-12 Change % (YoY)
UK 5231 5276 -1%
North America 6657 4843 37%
Europe 7300 6829 7%
China 9751 6879 42%Asia Pacific 1882 1428 32%
All other markets 6582 4638 42%
Monthly Performance of JLR : Geography Wise
Model Nov-13 Nov-12 Change % (YoY)
Defender 1615 1274 27%
Freelander 4124 4517 -9%
Discovery 3424 3683 -7%
New Range Rover Sport 6833 0 NA
Range Rover Sport 106 4909 NA
Range Rover 2 1417 NA
Range Rover Evoque 10953 9919 10%
New Range Rover 4102 143 NA
Monthly Performance of Land Rover: Model Wise
Model Nov-13 Nov-12 Change % (YoY)
XF 3825 2743 39%
XJ 1628 1004 62%
XK 234 284 -18%
F-TYPE 557 NA
Monthly Performance of Jaguar : Model Wise
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Persistent System.
BUY
8%
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute 7.5 83.5 126.6
l. to Nifty 4.9 77.8 107.9
Current 1QFY14 4QFY13
omoters 38.96 38.96 38.96
15.28 14.84 12.39
I 21.23 19.31 21.59
hers 24.53 26.89 27.06
Financials
2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 432.37 357.29 21.0 326.86 32.3
EBITDA 100.8 76.8 31.3 89.06 13.2
PAT 60.8 57.1 6.5 44.71 36.0
EBITDA Margin 23.3% 21.5% 180bps 27.2% (390bp
PAT Margin 14.1% 16.0% (190bps) 13.7% 40bps
ock Performance
ange from Previous
evious Target Price 890
pside 10%
wk Range H/L 906/477
"Persistently innovating.."
ompany update
MP 876
rget Price 960
Persistent Sytems management remains confident of FY14 with deal pipeline bei
strong and remains focused on increasing the share of IP-led revenues in its portfol
The management expects to see more than 15% dollar revenue growth, more th
NASSCOM guidance of 12-14 % for FY14E.
arket Data
E Code 533179
SE Symbol PERSISTENT
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
3505
erage Daily Volume 12139
year forward P/E-x
Rs, Cro
(Source: Company/Eastwi
View and Valuation:Thecompanysfocus is shifting greater proportion to IP led servic
and company has marquee clientele in cutting-edge technologies around clou
mobility, collaboration and analytics; witnessing faster growth. Considering t
companysability to achieve scale and growth, we rateBUYon the stock and we rev
our target price from Rs 890 to Rs 960. At a CMP of Rs 876, stock trades at 13.8x FY14
earnings.
Persistent's management suggests that deal pipeline are looking strong and seegood activity and traction in the market across the board. Its focus on some of new
technologies like cloud, analytics and mobility are gaining a lot of traction because
pickup in demand environment. The emerging themes, (CAMB) Cloud, Analyti
Mobility, and Big data could also see strong demand traction ahead. Because
actively investment in these themes, management is very confident to see healt
growth and also they expressed their confidence to beat the NASSCOM guidance (1
14% revenue growth for FY14E).
kt Capital (Rs Crores)
fty
are Holding Pattern-%
6237
With the potential revenue growth, strong deal pipeline and multi-year relationsh
with marquee clientele in the Infrastructure vertical, we upgrade this stock and expe
for better earning visibility across niche IT players.
Recently , Persistent System reported superlative set of numbers during the 2QFY
with 21%(QoQ) sales growth in INR term and 8.6%(QoQ) growth in USD term led
38%(QOQ) growth on the intellectual property (IP) revenues. PAT growth was at 6.5
(QoQ).
Margin ramp up:During the quarter, Its EBITDA margin improved by 180bps to 23.3
positively impacted by currency gain(270bps), while during the quarter company wa
hike to its off shore employee at a range of 8-9% was impacted margin by 310 badversely. However, management expects to maintain margin at a range of 24-25% f
FY14E.
On segmental front: The Companys cash cow segment Infrastructure and Syste
which contributes 69% on sales, grew by 21% and life science (13% contribution
sales) was up by 57% sequentially. While, Telecom space (17.6% contribution on sale
increased marginally by 3% (QoQ).
Clients Metrics: During the quarter, company added 2 clients at 32 under mediu
category( >$1mn to $3mn) and 1 client at 16 from large ( > $ 3Mn) . Revenue from top
client was improved from 21.2% (1QFY14) to 22.5% . DSO at 62days, almost
quarters low.
"BUY"13th Dec' 13
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
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Persistent S stem.
(Source: Company/Eastwi
perating Metrics
nancials
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
2QFY12 3QFY12 4QFY13 1QFY13 QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY1
op1 16.0% 15.9% 17.2% 17.8% 20.7% 21.1% 21.6% 21.2% 22.5%
op 5 38.6% 37.0% 36.6% 33.5% 36.3% 37.3% 36.7% 34.7% 36.4%
op 10 49.4% 48.3% 48.8% 45.3% 47.0% 49.4% 47.9% 46.0% 47.3%
nsite - Linear 12665 12387 12603 12789 12863 12772 14014 14567 1428
ffshore - Linear 3803 3778 3895 3898 3978 4032 4143 4111 4109
eild per Employee(excld- Trainee) 3208 3247 3350 3345 3746 3817 3769 3602 3919
otal Employee 6900 6706 6628 6536 6370 6719 6970 7144 7457
ttrition 17.7% 17.4% 18.3% 18.9% 16.9% 16.0% 14.4% 14.2% 14.0%
tilization rate %(xclude IP Led ) 73.8% 74.1% 71.7% 74.1% 75.2% 77.3% 72.5% 70.0% 71.7%
lling Rate-USD/ppm
mployee Metrics
ient Concentration
s in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
ales 601.16 775.84 1000.3 1294.5 1657.54 2053.93
mployee Cost 368.74 481.62 599.05 719 895.07 1119.39
ost of technical professionals 0 30.67 41.68 54 82.88 102.70
ther expenses 86.05 105.24 135.2 218 290.07 379.98
otal expenses 454.79 617.53 775.93 990.78 1268.02 1602.06
BITDA 146.37 158.31 224.37 303.72 389.52 451.86
epreciation 33.52 42.39 61.1 78 93.54 84.18
ther Income 11.23 34.44 34.44 34.44 66.30 71.89
BIT 112.85 115.92 163.27 225.44 295.98 367.68
nterest Cost 0 0 0.00 0.03 0.00 0.00
rofit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes 124.08 150.36 197.71 259.851 362.29 439.57
rovision for Taxes 9.05 10.62 55.09 75.37 108.69 131.87
et Profit (+)/Loss (-) 115.03 139.74 142.62 184.481 253.60 307.70
rowth-% (YoY)ales 1.2% 29.1% 28.9% 29.4% 28.0% 23.9%
BITDA 60.2% 8.2% 41.7% 35.4% 28.3% 16.0%
AT 74.1% 21.5% 2.1% 29.4% 37.5% 21.3%
xpenses on Sales-%
mployee Cost 61.3% 62.1% 59.9% 55.5% 54.0% 54.5%
ther expenses 14.3% 13.6% 13.5% 16.9% 17.5% 18.5%
ax rate 7.3% 7.1% 27.9% 29.0% 30.0% 30.0%
Margin-%
BITDA 24.3% 20.4% 22.4% 23.5% 23.5% 22.0%
BIT 18.8% 14.9% 16.3% 17.4% 17.9% 17.9%
AT 19.1% 18.0% 14.3% 14.3% 15.3% 15.0%
aluation:MP 310.0 366.7 409.2 541.0 876.0 876.0
o of Share 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
W 639.0 747.1 840.5 1018.3 1234.4 1504.7
PS 28.8 34.9 35.7 46.1 63.4 76.9
VPS 159.7 186.8 210.1 254.6 308.6 376.2
oE-% 18.0% 18.7% 17.0% 18.1% 20.5% 20.4%
/BV 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.8 2.3
/E 10.8 10.5 11.5 11.7 13.8 11.4
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Coal India LTD.
CCIs Rs 1,773-crore penalty:
289
350
35021%
NA
533278
176226 Coal India to get Rs 2,119 cr extra on coal price revision :
17622
6308
1M 1yr YTD
solute -1.3 -21.2 -21.4
l. to Nifty 2.8 8.8 8.6
2QFY14 1QFY14 4QFY13
omoters 90.0 90.0 90.0
5.5 5.4 5.4
5.3 2.3 2.0
hers 2.2 2.4 2.6
Financials : Q2FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q2FY13 Q1FY1
Net Revenue 15411 5.8 -6.4 14573 1647
EBITDA 2794 -2.4 -29.4 2862 395Depriciation 495 27.8 4.1 387 47
Interest Cost 8 -22.2 7.0 10
Tax 1412 -4.2 -27.9 1475 195
PAT 3052 -0.8 -18.2 3078 373(In Cr
Thecompanys net sales grew 5.8% yoy to 15,411cr (above our estimate of 15,083cr
Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared to 102mn ton in 2QFY2013
The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/ton (despite price hike) due t
lower realization on FSA coal.Despite 5.8% yoy growth in top-line, EBITDA decreased b
8.2% yoy to 3,176cr due to higher raw material costs (18.1% yoy to 2,251cr) an
contractual expenses (27.6% yoy to 1,394cr). The depreciation expenses increased b
27.8% yoy to 495cr; hence, adjusted net profit was flat yoy at 3,043cr .yr Forward P/B
Coal India 2QFY2014 top-line was above our estimate. The companys net sales grew
5.8% yoy to 15,411cr. Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared t
102mn ton in 2QFY2013. The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/to
despite price hikes. Its FSA coalsrealizations were lower than expected due to lowe
grade coal. The company liquidated 11mn ton of old stock.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
kt Capital (Rs Crores)
erage Daily Volume (Nos.) Coal India Ltd is likely to get additional revenue of Rs 2,119 cr in this fiscal on account o
revision in dry fuel prices.CIL (Coal India Ltd) has revised and rationalized the basi
notified prices of all the grades of non-coking coal except GI, G2 and G5.The estimateadditional revenue due to revision of basic notified price for the current financial year
Rs 2,119 cr.CIL had revised the prices of all grades of coal, barring three, for all its eigh
producing subsidiaries with effect from May 28 this year. Mahanadi Coalfields which
expected to contribute Rs 686 crore, followed by Rs 664 crore from Northern Coalfield
and Rs 495 crore from South Eastern Coalfields.
fty
ock Performance-%
are Holding Pattern-%
ompany Update
MP The Competition Commission of India (CCI) imposed a Rs 1,773 cr fine on Coal India, th
country' monopoly commercial coal miner, based on a complaint filed by two powe
companies that India's monopoly producer of coal abused its dominance. Thgovernment owns 90% stake in Coal India, and has traditionally drawn hefty dividen
income from the cash rich coal company. In 2012-13, the company paid a total dividen
of Rs 8,843 cr out of which the government's share was Rs 7,959 cr. A Rs 1800-crore fin
could possibly mean less profits for the company and less dividend income for its owner
But as the main owner, the government, will pocket this amount in the form of a fine,
will not be poorer in any way.
rget Price
evious Target Priceside
ange from Previous
arket Data
E Code
E Symbol COALINDIA
wk Range H/L 372/238
"Buy"12nd Dec' 13
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UTLOOK:
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
431 431 436 452
416 425 433 465
1073 1183 1441 1468
404744 390243 377447 364736
1066 1105 1155 1240
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E
50234 62415 68303 69864
7573 5123 6556 8383
1755 2013 2333 2595
4580 4901 5802 6057
20481 26705 27943 28943
40390 40857 50219 53738
9843 21558 18084 16126
1673 1969 1813 1860
79 54 45 345595 6484 7623 7332
10868 20588 17356 15870
33 51 36 33.1OE
ost Of Projects & Contractual
wer and fuel
ntractual expenses
mployee benefit Expence
penditure
ITDA
epriciation
terest Costx
AT
et Revenue from Operation
PERATING MATRIX
al Production in MT
oal Offtake in MT
venue Generation From unit Ton
vg Man Power (in numbers)
oductivity Per Man
L PERFORMANCE
Coal India LTD.
oal India 2QFY2014 top-line was above our estimate. The companysnet sales grew
8% yoy to 15,411cr. Sales volumes stood at 109mn ton in 2QFY2014 compared to
2mn ton in 2QFY2013. The blended realizations declined by 1.4% yoy to 1,414/ton
spite price hikes. Its FSAcoalsrealizations were lower than expected due to lower
ade coal. The company liquidated 11mn ton of old stock.
Lse-auction realizations have declined over the past one year on account of decline
international coal price coupled with weak domestic demand. Going forward, we
pectCILsprofitability to be affected due to lower e-auction realizations, sticky staff
sts and other expenses. Moreover, given the price hike taken during 4QFY2013, we
not expect CIL to undertake any further price hikes in the near-term.
e expect modest increase in sales volumes growth during FY2013-15 on account of
or offtake capabilities of CIL. Also, we expect CILsmargins to decline during FY2014
e to lower e-auction realizations and higher staff costs/other expenses.News flows
ated to further divestment in CIL by the government is likely to keep the stock price
der pressure in our view. we recommend Buy rating on the stock with our previous
rget price Rs.350.
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FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
6316 6316 6316 6316
20956 26998 34137 42156
27273 33314 40453 48472
343 1334 1305 10781620 33 0 0
2545 22461 28271 31144
772 645 829 837
1404 12387 15595 20447
5443 8490 9785 12385
0 779 759 712
12035 12065 12681 12754
2211 2057 1848 3496
610 845 1017 1181
4402 5586 6071 5618
2169 3419 5663 10480
39078 45806 58203 62236
8066 11180 13478 16189
17921 21646 24688 25479
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
0.0 5.7 5.5 4.0
0.0 17.3 32.6 27.5
4.9 22.8 29.2 52.7
1.7 4.3 4.3 4.2
1.0 3.7 3.1 2.8
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
10727 12819 16323 15948-131 -3822 3565 -6839
10596 8997 19888 9109
950 697 -10410 -1833
2163 2911 -7382 -7852
13708 12606 2095 -575
Down 21% from its 52week High
Up 14% from its 52 week Low
7
et Cash Flow during year
rading At :
et Cash From Operation
sh From Investment
sh from Finance
ASH FLOWS
sh from Operationanges In Working Capital
editors to Turnover%
ventories to Turnover%
ebtor to Turnover%
tal Assets
ATIOS
B
S
ade receivables
sh and bank balances
ort-term loans and advances
pital work-in-progress
ng-term loans and advances
ventories
ngible assets
ng-term borrowingsort-term borrowings
ng-term provisions
ade payables
ort-term provisions
tal liabilities
tangibles
tal equity
Coal India LTD.
S PERFORMANCE
are capital
serve & Surplus
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BUY
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute -1 46 41
el. to Nifty -4 39 23
Current 1QFY14 4QFY1
omoters 46.8 46.8 46.8
31.5 30.7 28.8
I 12.1 12.4 14.3
hers 9.7 10.1 10.0
Financials Rs, Cro
2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 2668 2476 7.8 2301 15.9
EBITDA 660 590 11.9 515 28.2
PAT 417 405 3.0 297 40.4
EBITDA Margin 24.7% 23.8% 90bps 22.4% 240bps
PAT Margin 15.6% 16.4% (70bps) 12.9% 270bps
LUPIN"Optimistic Guidance "
arget Price 1006
evious Target Price -
esult UpdateMP 873
The management of the company in its latest media interaction stated that the company
confident of logging 15-20 % CAGR in US and India in the days to come on the back of ri
pipeline as well as acquisition based strategy. Management further said that company
expecting to launch about 100 new drugs in next three years. This new launch will incluan entire range of oral contraceptives and opthal products.
ne Year Forward P/E
(Source: Company/Eastwi
39101
verage Daily Volume 395892
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
15%pside
We have slightly raise our TP to Rs 1006 on the back management guidance post t
results. The management is quite optimistic for its business outlook going forward a
believes that the company will achieve its set target going forward.
The Net profits for 2QFY14 came at Rs 417 Cr. The higher incidence of tax during t
quarter is due to tax provision of Rs 51 Cr made on dividends received from subsidiaries
Lupin earlier posted slightly better than expected 2QFY14 results ,the company report
its net sales at Rs 2631 Cr up by 18 % YoY on the back of strong business performan
from US and Europe formulation segment. The segment grew by 31% YoY to Rs. 1108
Cr during 2Q FY14, against Rs. 844.4 Cr for Q2, FY 2012
13.This segment contribu
42% to overall Company sales.US brands business contributed 10% of total US sale
whereas the generics business contributed 90% for the quarter under review.
The Indian formulation business contributed 25% of the Company
overall revenues for the quarter.Companys India formulation business grew by 9
recording revenues of Rs. 6,635 m. during Q2, FY 2013
14, as compared to Rs. 6,064
for Q2, FY 2012
13. The companysrest other business geographies to have performrelatively good for the company.
The company has filed 7 ANDAs and received 6 ANDA approvals in the quarter. Cumulat
ANDA filings with the US FDA now stand at 183 with the company having received approvals to date.
ock Performance-%
hare Holding Pattern-%
kt Capital (Rs, Cr)
The operating EBITDA for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 660 Cr and OPM stands at 24.7%.T
RM cost decreased by 7.7% to 32.0% of net sales at Rs. 841.3 Cr during 2QFY14
compared to Rs. 889.8 Cr for 2Q FY 13.Manufacturing & other expenses increased by
30.4% of net sales at Rs. 798.8 Cr during 2Q FY14 as compared to Rs. 591.7 Cr for t
same period last fiscal.Revenue expenditure on R&D stood at 8.3% of net sales at R
217.2 Cr.
fty 6332
hange from Previous -
wk Range H/L 946/569
SE Symbol LUPIN
arket DataSE Code 500257
"BUY"11th Dec' 13
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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
LUPIN
les and PAT Trend (Rs)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
PM %
PM %
company reported its net sales at Rs 2631up by 18 % YoY on the back of stro
business performance fr
USandEuropeformulation segment.
The higher incidence of tax during
quarter is due to tax provision of Rs 51
made on dividends received from subsidiar
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
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TATA Steel Ltd.
420
440
NA
5%
NA
From the Management Corner the key takeaways are :
500470
40863
28604
6363
1M 1yr YTD
solute 21.7 5.5 9.5
l. to Nifty 23.4 0.3 3.5
2QFY14 1QFY14 4QFY13
omoters 31.4 31.4 31.4
13.6 13.2 13.9
26.1 26.3 27.3
hers 29.0 29.2 27.5
Financials : Q2FY14 Y-o-Y % Q-o-Q % Q2FY13 Q1FY1
Net Sales 36645 7.4 11.7 34133 3280
EBIDTA 3705 60.4 0.5 2310 368
Other Income 203 0.5 10.3 202 18
Interest Cost 1067 9.8 7.6 972 99
Depriciation 1444 8.2 2.9 1335 140
Tax 447 -32.4 27.4 661 35
PAT 917 -325.3 -18.2 (407) 112(In C
side
ange from Previous
tial Coverage
MP
rget Price
Company Update:
TATASteelsconsolidated net sales increased 7.4% yoy to 36,645Cr. TSE sales volume
grew by 10.0% yoy to 3.46mt .The consolidated EBITDA increased by 60.4% yoy t
3,705cr. Thecompanystax expenses declined 32.3% yoy. There was an exceptional ga
related to deferred tax write-back of 390cr. Adjusting for this, the net profit stood a
527cr, compared to a loss of 407cr in 2QFY2013.
evious Target Price
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
ock Performance-%
are Holding Pattern-%
yr Forward P/B
Source - Comapany/EastWind Research
Outlook:Over the past two quarters, Tata Steel has reported strong growth in volumes the domestic operations despite weak demand. Its Europe operations have been broad
better than expectations indicating some stability and predictability from its Europ
operations. TataSteelsearnings growth is likely to be driven by higher sales volume
FY2014-15 on the back of 2.9mn ton brownfield expansion project in Jamshedpur an
steady improvement in profitability of European operations. We have arrived at "Hold
rating on the stock watching our step for a target price of Rs.340 in near term.
On the back of a consistent operational improvement at the companys Europea
operations We are positive on the stock in long run .However, on the back of ongoin
capacity expansion, the gross debt is expected to increase from 66074 crore (FY13) t
76919 crore (FY14E) and 77543 crore (FY15E).
arket Data
E Code
TATASTEEL
erage Daily Volume (Nos.)
E Symbol
wk Range H/L
kt Capital (Rs Crores)
448/195
fty
Focus on Domestic Market: The Management aims to sell incremental sales volume
from Jamshedpur expansion mainly in the domestic market. This is unlike other flat ste
producers such as JSW Steel and Essar Steel who have been opportunistically raisin
exports, considering INR depreciation against the USD alongside low domestic demand.
Odisha Project could provide further upside in long-term: The Company aims to ma
value added steel products at the new facility in Odisha (3mtpa) where the blende
realizations could be potentially higher than existing products by 2015. We believe timeclearance for expansion of iron ore mine is critical for the plant. The company's Odish
plant is highly automated and will require fewer employees/ton compared to i
Jamshedpur facility.
Debt levels to rise:Debt of the company is likely to rise till 2015 as it draws debt fo
Odisha expansion.
"Hold"10th Dec' 13
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DIAN Operation:
1
TATA Steel Ltd.
ATA Steel Profile:
ta Steel is among the top ten global steel companies with an annual crude steel
pacity of over 28 mtpa. It is now one of the world's most geographically-diversified
eel producers, with operations in 26 countries and a commercial presence in over 50
untries. The Tata Steel Group, with a turnover of US$ 24.82 billion in FY 2012- 2013,ross five continents and is a Fortune 500 company. Tata Steels larger production
cilities include those in India, the UK, the Netherlands, Thailand, Singapore, China and
ustralia. Operating companies within the Group include Tata Steel Limited (India),
ta Steel Europe Limited (formerly Corus), NatSteel, and Tata Steel Thailand (formerly
illennium Steel).
e Indian Steel industry witnessed an increase in crude steel production of 5.4% y-o-y,
here as the real consumption increased only by 3.3% with imports registering a sharp
crease on account of lower import duties applicable to ASEAN countries. The
owdown in fixed asset investment and lackluster automotive demand impacted
argins of steelmakers adversely. In Financial Year 2013-14, Indian operations are
pected to benefit on account of stabilization of the commissioned capacity, sourcing
ke internally and reduced impact of exchange fluctuations because of part liquidation
foreign currency loans. The shift to an enhanced product-mix with new cold rolling
cilities being set up and the collaboration with Nippon Steel to produce high strength
tomotive steels is expected to aid profitability.
UROPIAN Operation:
e apparent steel demand in the European Union continued to deteriorate during
nancial Year 2012-13 having decreased by about 9.7% in 2012. In aggregate, the steel
mand in Europe is currently about 30% below pre-crisis levels, which has impacted
e demand and customer buying behavior significantly. TSEs performance in thenancial Year 2012-13 was also impacted on account of operational issues faced in
building the Blast Furnace at Port Talbot, UK and undertaking of major repairs of the
ast Furnace at Ijmuiden. Even though the market demand was relatively muted. The
building of the Blast Furnace and other management tasks and initiatives may
sition TSE on a better platform for Financial Year 2013-14 even though the market is
pected to be subdued for the next 12 months. The European operations are
dertaking structural improvement measures including supply chain transformation,
fferentiated product strategy, reduction of manufacturing costs and overheads (head
unt currently 25% below pre-crisis levels).
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FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
102393 118753 132900 134712
1186 680 1573 479
103579 119433 134473 135191
44092 53283 65745 605365549 6390 6660 7434
16463 15840 17229 18918
94350 102006 120483 122390
8043 16747 12417 12321
4492 4415 4517 5575
3022 3956 4250 3968
1715 9056 5223 3257
2152 3246 3636 3229
-15 60 173 214
-1684 3046 3362 -7390
-2009 8983 5390 -7058
22814 35386 42616 34172
-1.4 16.8 4.8 1.0
257 371 439 352
2.64 0.90 0.98 1.13
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
-0.31 4.97 1.51 0.25
3.43 10.33 5.87 4.99
7.76 14.02 9.23 9.11
-185.06 5.38 20.51 116.19
-2.41 9.11 5.18 -6.87
-23 94 55 -73
1
ITDA
epriciation
terest Cost
ALUATION
PM %
et Worth
OE%
ook value per share
BT
x
PERATION & PAT
et Revenue from Operation
her Income
tal Income
tal Expenditure
TATA Steel Ltd.
Source - Comapany/EastWind Researinority Interest
ceptional items
AT
ost Of Projectseight and forwarding
mployee benefit Expence
ITDA %
B
PM %
E
OCE%
S Source - Comapany/EastWind Resear
Source - Comapany/EastWind Resear
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FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
887 959 971 971
21927 34427 41645 33201
22814 35386 42616 34172
884 889 1091 166928059 49251 45238 46858
25041 3794 4699 8115
53100 53045 49937 54972
1769 2188 2504 3155
3789 4585 4715 5356
22020 18457 20529 21779
2806 3395 3476 2943
109738 135488 146852 146906
1635 1790 2851 2959
14542 15298 17355 13065
31778 34778 39081 51978
12383 13552 20196 14277
3237 4688 2623 2497
4801 8685 6837 7098
18687 24055 25598 24091
11624 14812 14878 13994
6788 10859 10799 9860
1961 3547 3717 4061
2181 3159 1398 760
109738 135488 146852 146906
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13
5600 13638 10312 10195et Cash From Operation 10502 6463 11385 13324
(4700) (8379) 3705 (12321)
(5135) 5993 (8462) (2045)
et Cash Flow during year 667 4077 6628 (1042)
4.8% Down from its 52week High
112% Up from its 52 week Low
1
TATA Steel Ltd.
tal equity
inority Interestng-term borrowings
ort-term borrowings
sh from Operation
ngible assets
pital work-in-progress
tal liabilities
tal Borrowings
eferred tax liabilities (net)
ng-term provisions
ade payables
ort-term provisions
rading At :
rrent investments
tal Assets
sh Flows
sh From Investment
sh from Finance
S Performance
are capital
eserve & Surplus
tangibles
oodwill on consolidation
on-current Investments
ng-term loans and advances
ventories
ade receivables
sh and bank balances
ort-term loans and advances
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NIIT Tech
1M 1yr YTD
solute 18.4 19.5 26.8
l. to Nifty 18.29 6.1 23.1
Current 1QFY14 4QFY13
omoters 31.19 31.23 31.29
29.21 29.04 27.79
19.94 19.67 19.52
hers 19.66 20.06 21.4
Financials
2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 587.3 541.9 8.4 500.1 17.4
EBITDA 88.6 78.2 13.3 84.8 4.5
PAT 60.4 52 16.2 43.1 40.1
EBITDA Margin 15.1% 14.4% 70bps 17.0% (190bp
PAT Margin 10.3% 9.6% 70bps 8.6% (170bp
"Next Journey to Billion Dollar"
MP 332
rget Price 360
ompany update In an interview to Media, NIIT Tech management expressed its confidence of drivi
growth in the organization and looking at an aspirational goal of USD 1 billion reven
in next 5 years.
E Symbol NIITTECH
Buy
year forward P/E
Rs, Cro
(Source: Company/Eastwi
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
View and Valuation:We expects good growth from Travel & Tourism vertical in FY'
but not the same level of the growth, But the BFSI expected to be softer. However, t
MFG and Govt verticals expected to improve going forward. CompanysOrder wins
the recent quarters have been healthy, lending visibility on revenue growth. At a CMP
Rs332, trades at 7.5x FY14E earnings. We retain buy view on the stock with a pr
target of Rs360 (revised from Rs310).
During the 2QFY14, they secured fresh orders of $84 million, leading to $248 milli
worth of orders executable over the next 12 months.
ange from Previous 16%
evious Target Price 310
side 8%
arket Data
E Code 532541
Consistent in order addition:Fresh orders of USD 84Mn versus USD 154 mn in Q1 we
secured during the quarter leading to USD 263Mn worth of orders executable over t
next 12 months. In 1QFY14, Company had huge business in the domestic market whiwas USD 65 million intake from the Airports Authority of India (AAI). But in Q2 FY1
order has primarily been in the international market.
ock Performance
wk Range H/L 344/234
are Holding Pattern-%
kt Capital (Rs Crores)
fty 6260
2011
erage Daily Volume 20884
The Company's growth in past 3years gives the confidence of driving growth goi
forward. NIIT Tech has been strong performer from the slowdown with CAGR of 3
in the last 3 years and even we look at it in dollar terms, it has been about 22-23
Next journey to USD 1 billion in next 5 years, company would report at a CAGR of 2
in INR term and 18% in USD term for FY13-19E.
Aggressive in the US market:The company is expecting slight uptrend in the US mark
(Us market contributes 41% of sales) led by recent healthy demand environment. T
companysfocus would be very sharply on those developed markets particularly the
as well as Asian market going forward. That will be one aspect of growth strategy.
Scouting for acquisition:NIITTechsfocus is on strengthening the industry segments meaning full acquisition particularly in the insurance and the travel space.
management has indicated that they are constantly on the lookout and in conversati
with the potential assets. Therefore, certain amount of inorganic initiative is importa
to sustain the growth momentum.
Eyeing on Infrastructure services:NIITTechslarge engagements typically involved w
significant amount of infrastructure management services, which is a strong practice
the organization. The travel vertical and the infrastructure management services li
will be key areas of focus for NIIT, going forward.
Aspects of growth strategy:
"BUY"9th Dec' 13
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NIIT Tech
perating Metrics;
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
(Source: Company/Eastwi
nancials;
Narnolia Securities Ltd,
1QFY13 2QFY13 3QFY13 4QFY13 1QFY14 2QFY14
anking and Finacial Services 13% 13% 12% 12% 12% 14%
nsurance 21% 20% 19% 19% 18% 19%
ransport 40% 42% 42% 37% 36% 37%Manufacturing 7% 6% 6% 6% 7% 6%
overnment 8% 5% 8% 11% 13% 10%
thers 11% 14% 13% 15% 14% 14%
mericas 36% 38% 37% 38% 39% 41%
MEA 39% 39% 40% 37% 35% 36%
oW 25% 23% 23% 25% 26% 23%
SO-days 84 75 76 82 98 100
op-5 30% 32% 34% 32% 31% 36%
op-10 43% 47% 48% 47% 46% 49%
o of Headcounts 7444 7617 7882 8158 8207 8017
ales Mix-Geography
evenue Concentration %
eadcounts
ales Mix-Verticles
s in Cr, FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14E FY15E
ales 913.7 1232.25 1576.48 2021.36 2385.41 2863.75
mployee Cost 503.71 601.36 891.12 1115.1 1347.75 1589.38
ther expenses 239.75 393.1 415.26 576.96 667.91 816.17
otal expenses 743.46 994.46 1306.38 1692.06 2015.67 2405.55
BITDA 170.24 237.79 270.1 329.3 369.74 458.20
epreciation 35.81 31.46 36.42 56.69 65.73 73.49
ther Income 7.64 13.6 30.37 22.75 71.56 71.59
BIT 134.43 206.33 233.68 272.61 304.00 384.71
nterest Cost 0 2.22 3.84 1.91 4.89 3.67
rofit (+)/Loss (-) Before Taxes 142.07 217.71 260.21 293.45 370.68 452.64
rovision for Taxes 14.42 32.3 63.75 75.05 105.64 131.26et Profit (+)/Loss (-) 127.65 185.41 196.46 218.4 265.03 321.37
rowth-% (YoY)
ales -6.8% 34.9% 27.9% 28.2% 18.0% 20.1%
BITDA 2.3% 39.7% 13.6% 21.9% 12.3% 23.9%
AT 9.6% 45.2% 6.0% 11.2% 21.4% 21.3%
xpenses on Sales-%
mployee Cost 55.1% 48.8% 56.5% 55.2% 56.5% 55.5%
ther expenses 26.2% 31.9% 26.3% 28.5% 28.0% 28.5%
ax rate 10.1% 14.8% 24.5% 25.6% 28.5% 29.0%
Margin-%
BITDA 18.6% 19.3% 17.1% 16.3% 15.5% 16.0%
BIT 14.7% 16.7% 14.8% 13.5% 12.7% 13.4%
AT 14.0% 15.0% 12.5% 10.8% 11.1% 11.2%
aluation:
MP 170.25 184.65 270.9 262.35 332 332
o of Share 5.88 5.93 5.96 6.02 6.02 6.02
W 579.78 752.11 922.2 1094.12 1350.45 1662.62
PS 21.7 31.3 33.0 36.3 44.0 53.4
VPS 98.6 126.8 154.7 181.7 224.3 276.2
oE-% 22.0% 24.7% 21.3% 20.0% 19.6% 19.3%
/BV 1.7 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.5 1.2
/E 7.8 5.9 8.2 7.2 7.5 6.2
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BUY Company hop efu l to maintain doub le dig i ts growth for second h al f of the year .
1M 1yr YTD
bsolute 4.0 29.0 69.0
el. to Nifty 5.0 23.0 53.0
Current 1QFY14 4QFY1
omoters 52.1 52.1 52.1
11.1 10.8 10.1
I 15.0 14.2 15.3
hers 21.9 22.9 22.6
Financials Rs, Cro
2QFY14 1QFY14 (QoQ)-% 2QFY13 (YoY)-%
Revenue 807 894 (9.7) 719 12.2
EBITDA 142 145 (2.1) 118 20.3
PAT 95 98 (3.1) 70 35.7
EBITDA Margin 17.6% 16.2% 140bps 16.4% 120bps
PAT Margin 11.8% 11.0% 80bps 9.7% 200bps
The operating EBITDA for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 142 Cr and OPM at 17.6%.The OP
improves by nearly 118 bps mainly due to decrease in purchase of stock in trade
percentage of sales. The purchase of stock in trade as percentage of sales stands at 3
versus 7% for the same time last fiscal. However RM cost to sales have increased to 6
from 59% due to rise in the price of major component of RM, lead and an employee ben
cost was higher by 60 bps to 4.8% during the period.
The management of the company after results said that company will maintain its margins
17-18 % for the rest of the fiscal with no pricing moderation. The management further s
that company is confident of maintaining double digit growth for the second half of the ye
The company believes that there is improvement in the market share.
The Company's effort to enhance the capacities of Two-wheeler battery in the existing pla
has witnessed some delay and is likely to go on stream by end January 2014. The enhanc
capacities will support the Company to commence business with other major Two-whee
OEM's and to grow the aftermarket business in a big manner. The green field project enhancement of Four-wheeler capacity is progressing as per schedule and is likely
commence production by Q2 of next financial year.
arget Price 365evious Target Price 315
MP 328
4%
pside
Amara Raja Batteries Limited
OPTIMISTIC MANAGEMENT SPEECH
esult Update
ne Year Forward P/Bv Band
(Source: Company/Eastw
5,606
verage Daily Volume 163647
fty 6241
AMARAJABAT
ock Performance-%
hare Holding Pattern-%
kt Capital (Rs, Cr)
Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
wk Range H/L 342/207
11%
arket DataSE Code 500008
The stock is currently trading at CMP Rs 328 and it has achieve our first TP Rs 315.T
strong 2QFY14 results , Optimistic management speech and strong business outlook go
forward raises positive view on the stock. We have slightly tweaked our TP up to Rs 365
the back of above fundamental reasons.
SE Symbol
hange from Previous
Amara Raja had posted its 2QYFY14 sales at Rs 805 Cr up by 12.3 % YoY on the backthe strong demand in the automotive replacement and industrial battery business. The
was double digit growth in both of these segments.
The automotive battery business reported double digit growth in revenue, supported
strong volume expansion both in 4 wheeler and 2 wheeler batteries in the replacem
market, however the OEM demand continued to be sluggish. The trading volume in
home UPS business suffered due to unfavorable season on account of mild summer a
ood monsoon.
The net profits for the 2QFY14 came at Rs 95 Cr and NPM at 11.7% .The other income
the quarter came at Rs 7 Cr and Tax rate stands at 29 %.
"BUY" 06thDec' 13
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Please refer to the Disclaimers at the end of this Report.
M Cost as % Sales
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
Lead costs which accounts for a major chu
of its expenses were higher than the year a
quarter. As a per cent of sales, raw mater
were at 64 % up 500 bps over the year-a
period.
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
ALES & PAT TREND
The expansion in OPM seems largely due
decrease in purchase of stocks in trade co
by 430 bps to 3% .
Growth in sales came on the back of
strong demand in the automot
replacement and industrial battery busineThere was double digit growth in both
these segments.
Amara Raja Batteries Limited
PM & NPM TREND
(Source: Company/Eastwind)
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18
k Disclosure & Disclaimer:This report/message is for the personal information of the authorized recipient and does not construe to be any investment, legal or taxation advice t
rnolia Securities Ltd. (Hereinafter referred as NSL) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report/message is not for public distribution and has been furnished to you solely fo
ormation and should not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person in any from. The report/message is based upon publicly available information, findings of our research
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se are subject to change without notice. The recipients of this report should rely on their own investigations, should use their own judgment for taking any investment decisions ke
mind that past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance & that the the value of any investment or income are subject to market and other risks. Further it will b
assume that NSL and /or its Group or associate Companies, their Directors, affiliates and/or employees may have interests/ positions, financial or otherwise, individually or otherw
recommended/mentioned securities/mutual funds/ model funds and other investment products which may be added or disposed including & other mentioned in this report/messa