narc b uilding r egional c ommunities regions respond tampa bay regional planning commission fred...

NARC BUILDING REGIONAL COMMUNITIES

Regions Respond

Tampa Bay Regional Planning Commission

Fred AbouslemanExecutive Director

National Association of Regional Councils


The worlds been changingfor 30 years and caught us in the last three.

How bad……?

• "We're basically sliding toward Third World status," said Rep. Peter DeFazio, D-Ore. "It's pathetic."

• DeFazio chairs the House subcommittee on highways and transit.

• Jeff Kosseff, The Oregonian Sunday June 29, 2008, 12:44 PM


National Snapshot• CBO estimates the Iraq War will cost $1 trillion to $2 trillion

• US economy is not in a technical recession, but shows no sign of short term revival = federal, state and local budget constraints and cuts

• American Society of Civil Engineers has given our nation's public infrastructure a D-minus, estimating that it will cost $1.6 trillion over the next five years just to repair the infrastructure we currently have.

• The National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission calculated that it will take $225 billion just to maintain the existing system over the next 50 years. Meanwhile, OMB predicts a $3.2 billion shortfall in the Highway Trust Fund by 2009.

• We are falling behind Japan, China, India, and the European Union in investing in infrastructure improvements to support the economy

• More than 72,000 miles of municipal water and sewer pipe are more than 80 years old, threatening the public health and economies of communities large and small.

• The 36 million gallons a day that leak from the 85-mile-long Delaware Aqueduct in New York state amounts to more than 1 billion gallons a month. The daily leak in the tunnel would meet the daily demands of drought-ravaged Raleigh, N.C.


Federal Investment• The U.S., with the world’s largest economy, spends less than 1% of GDP on

infrastructure as compared with countries like China, 9%, and India, 3.5%.

• Federal spending on infrastructure has hovered around 3% of total expenditures in the federal budget.

• From 1987 onward, infrastructure spending by the federal government and by states and localities has grown in real terms by 1.7% and 2.1%, respectively.

• Infrastructure spending by states and localities has accounted for around three-fourths of total spending.

• Public spending on infrastructure totaled just over $312 billion in 2004 – federal spending was $73.5 billion, about 24%.

• Before the late 1980s, federal infrastructure spending accounted for 10% or more of the budget from 1959 through 1966. The subsequent decline of that share occurred in part because of a rise in spending on domestic programs unrelated to infrastructure— i.e. entitlement programs: Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security (more than half federal spending in 2004)


Where Does FL Stand?• 1830 census - Florida had 37,000 people

• By 2025 Florida is expected to be the 3rd most populous state, with a population of 20.7 million.

• Florida will add about 180,000 new residents in 2008 and 200,000 in 2009

• Florida has one of the biggest and longest running growth averages in the country

• Florida's economy declined at its sharpest rate in 16 years during the second quarter, and the current downturn likely will exceed the 1990-1991 recession in the state.

• Florida slipping relative to Texas, North Carolina and Georgia in competitiveness.

• The continued growth of the state has outpaced infrastructure improvements

• Florida will need to spend 200 billion dollars over 20 years to maintain and improve its infrastructure.


Freeway Congestion


Airports

• Over 3000 public airports


Top Port Totals(over 200 ports in US)

Total

Calls 000 dwt

Los Angeles/Long Beach 5,426 243,752

New Orleans, LA1 5,650 237,505

Houston, TX 6,327 215,467

New York, NY 4,817 188,006

San Francisco, CA1 3,676 165,601

Philadelphia, PA 3,240 132,469

Hampton Roads, VA1 2,660 111,365

Beaumont, TX 1,268 86,392

Corpus Christi, TX 1,455 84,893

Charleston, SC 2,234 82,167

LOOP Terminal, LA 307 79,650

Columbia River, WA1 2,219 77,896


Construction Costs

• Project cost overruns up to 60%• Why?

– No material in some cases• We, China and India have glutted the world’s

cement stock. Production will not meet needs until 2010

– Predicated upon a slowdown in Chinese and Indian construction.

• No domestic cement supply• No capacity

– No labor in others• In the SW – there isn’t enough labor to meet project

demands• Contractors have stopped bidding


Disasters - mitigation

• Post Katrina/Rita– $5 billion and counting– Total cost may reach $150 billion

• Does not account for business and population displacement

– CA fires, FL Hurricanes, droughts (may be species killer in Southwest) NARC heavily involved in water issues – including a massive investment in water infrastructure.

• Treasury solvency• Only available money for recovery is in domestic

discretionary accounts– i.e. transportation, housing, aging, education, social

programs• We are fighting to keep domestic programs funded


Future TrendsAsia

• Chinese and Indian Competitiveness• Purchasing power• Goods production• Shipments• Ability of our system to absorb?

– Thin


Basic Numbers

Chinese Freight Capabilities will grow by 35% over the next 10 years.

Ours – 7%

Our current system CANNOT meet expected global trade demands


Only Getting Bigger

Largest container ship

The container ship with the largest declared capacity is the 11,000 TEU Emma Mærsk. Bigger ships under construction

Largest Cargo AirplaneAntonov - AN-124 Ruslan

Up to 150 tonnes of cargo can be carried.


Expansion

• Panama Canal Expansion: $5.25 billion. Double Volume by 2025

• $685 Million Vancouver Port Expansion (plus millions in other facilities)

• Hutchison Whampoa Ltd. expansion of Mexican port facilities– Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) is the world's leading

port investor, developer and operator that operates across Europe, the Americas, Asia, the Middle East and Africa

– It operates in five of the seven busiest container ports in the world, handling 13% of the world’s container traffic

• U.S. is under-investing!


NARC Programs

Economic and Community

Development

Environment Transportation

EDA Water Highway

Housing Air Quality Transit

Aging Brownfields Rail

Base Closure Climate Change Aviation

Workforce Energy Maritime

Homeland Security – Planning and Evacuation Management


2008-2009 LegislationTransportation Economic

DevelopmentHomeland Security

Environment

SAFETEA-LU Reauthorization

(expires 9/2009)

Infrastructure Investment Commission

(NARC included)

FAA Reauthorization

Transportation and Housing Choices Act

Nat’l Infrastructure Bank

Highway Trust Fund fix

EDA Reauthorization

(expires 9/2008)

ARC Reauthorization

(expires 9/2008)

Housing Relief (signed into law)

National Innovation and Job Creation Act of 2008

Smarter Funding for All America's Homeland Security Act

NARC Grant Effort

Climate Change

Water Trust Fund

Multiple Energy Efficiency Bills


What to watch forTransportation/Infrastructure

• Support Infrastructure funding bills and initiatives• Reauthorization of Surface Transportation Bill

– Funding– Program structure– Delivery

– Regions respond:– Force congress/administration to fully fund

transportation– Increase authority – local/regional– Modal integration


Economic/Community Development

• Authorize EDA• USDA Rural Development• HUD – questions about role in housing/mortgage

crises• Workforce• Commissions

• Work to reauthorize EDA• Work with locals and states on housing issues• Innovative work force programs and policies• Get commissions up and running


Security

• Where does all the money go?

• Monitor urban grants

• Regional Grants on coordinated planning

• Regional innovation in evacuation planning


Environment

• Water• Climate Change• Air Quality• Energy

• Demand Congress fund water infrastructure• Get ahead of the climate change curve• Energy efficiency programs• Conservation programs – green infrastructure,

green building


Global Warming and Energy

• Carbon may be the tax of the future– Already being discussed in Congress

• Regions may have to account for the effects of global warming through new measures

• Energy is and will be in play– Are we energy efficient?– Are we sustainable?– Are we safe and secure?

• (Urban/Rural) Air Quality and EPA Standards – tightening


What Will Happen in 2009?


FY09 Appropriations

• All bills, except Mil-Con and Defense, to be rolled into CR – unlikely work will be done on others in September

• Majority of domestic spending programs within NARC issue areas receive plus-ups from Congress over President’s request


Second Stimulus• Senator Byrd (D-WV) to introduce 2nd Stimulus package =

$24B in aid

• $10B infrastructure = $3.75B highways; $892M mass-transit; $100M Amtrak; $200M airport improvements; $1.5B energy initiatives

• $10B disaster relief = $3B Hurricane Katrina; $910M wildfires in West; $1.8B FEMA; $1.82B CDBG

• $4B = other, including low income heating/cooling assistance; science; etc

• Speaker Pelosi (D-CA) talking about 2nd Stimulus worth $50B

• Unlikely either Chamber will have a bill hit the floor


2008-2009 Key PlayersPresident??

U.S. Senate

Reid (D-NV) Durbin (D-IL) Byrd (D-WV) Boxer (D-CA) Inhofe (R-OK)Baucus (D-MT)

Inouye (D-HI) Clinton (D-NY) Cochran (D-MS) Lieberman (I-CT) Hutchison (R-TX) McConnell (R-KY)


Key Players continued

U.S. House of Representatives

Pelosi (D-CA) Oberstar (D-MN) Mica (R-FL) Obey (D-WI) Dingell (D-MI)

Brown (D-FL)

Thompson (D-MS)DeFazio (D-OR) Markey (D-MA) Johnson (D-TX)

Lewis (R-CA)

Rahall (D-WV)

Rangel (D-NY) Blumenauer (D-OR)

Hoyer (D-MD)

Boehner (R-OH)

Mollohan (D-WV)

Petri (R-WI)


Key Players continued

U.S. Governors

Rendell (D-PA) Corzine (D-NJ) Schwarzenegger (R-CA) Crist (R-FL) Culver (D-IA)

Granholm (D-MI) Kaine (D-VA) Pawlenty (R-MN) Perry (R-TX) Sebelius (D-KS)

Patrick (D-MA) Strickland (D-OH)


2009 Legislative Focus

Domestic Security &

Preparedness

Climate Change

EnergyIndependence

& Security

ECONOMY

Infrastructure

Iraq War

Sustainability


Political landscape

• 2008 – 2012• Election• Congress adjourns• President needs 1-2 years – up to speed• Sets the stage for 2012• Prediction

– Congress/President engulfed in war (3-10 years) and economy (3 years)

– Want to ensure party majority– Extremes will divide congress cause gridlock– No significant legislation passed (2-5 years)


Regions Respond

• Traditional decision making not working – takes too long, too many involved

• Lack of leadership and vision at the top

• Transportation, infrastructure, other issues are both vertical and horizontal – regions can align needs


Regions Respond

• Creating their own taxing structures– San Diego, Phoenix, others…

• On the cutting edge– Being leaders – Out in front of ideas

• Fiscally constrained• Help set priorities

– Between state and locals– Among locals


Other

• Regions as entrepreneurs

• Service delivery

• Business models

• Local cost savings

• Joint purchasing

• Managing regional assets


NARC

– Support Regions – urban and rural – large and small

– Will continue to advocate for Regions as primary service delivery agents

– Will continue to advocate for the primacy of local government and elected officials

– Will continue to advocate for a PARTNERSHIP with states and the feds - not a subservient relationship


NARC Outreach and Positions• Multiple regional meetings• Committee meetings• Spectrum of ideas

– Devolution – stronger federal program• Innovation – Empowerment –

Streamlining - Consistency• We support a regional revolution


A New National Plan

Today, the challenges of the 21st Century – global warming, dwindling oil reserves, growing insecurity in the Middle East, and an uncertain global economy – require a renewed national focus on the infrastructure that is essential to our cities, our rural communities, and our economy. Unfortunately, we have neglected the state of America's infrastructure far too long, threatening our economic prosperity and the future of our communities, urban and rural.

Congressman Earl Blumenauer“A National Plan to Reinvest In America”

narc b uilding r egional c ommunities regions respond tampa bay regional planning commission fred...

Documents

federal spending

public spending

federal budget

infrastructure improvements

nations public infrastructure

federal government

fourths of total spending

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