nappfast: a tool for risk analysis of exotic plant pests roger magarey presented at the 3 rd annual...
TRANSCRIPT
NAPPFAST: A tool for risk analysis of exotic plant pests
Roger Magarey
Presented at the3rd Annual Meeting of Midwest Weather Working Group
Charlotte Convention Center, Charlotte, NCFriday, August 6, 2010
Dan Borchert, APHIS – modelingJessica Engle, NCSU – modelingJoe Russo, ZedX - cyberinfrastructure
Contributors
• APHIS-PPQ CAPS • USDA Farm Bill Section 10201• CSREES/NIFA NRI/AFRI
3
NAPPFAST System Overview
• Internet-based Pest Prediction System• Biological model (Degree day, Disease Infection,
or Multi-function) templates paired with large climate databases
• Produce geo-referenced output maps• Designed to assist pest
survey detection efforts:
predict when and where
What models are used to make risk maps/ products in NAPPFAST?
What types of weather-based risk products are available?
How can we get products to users?
5
NAPPFAST
• What models are used to make risk maps/products in NAPPFAST?– Degree Day– Infection – Generic– Climate matching– Pathway risk models
6
P. japonica general information
• Univoltine- one generation per year• Overwinters typically as a third instar larvae
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’
Insect Stage (5-08 – 5-14)
Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Adult beetles begin to emerge in central NC 3rd week in May (Fleming 1972)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’
Insect Stage (5-15 – 5-21)
Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972)
Insect Stage (5-22 – 5-31)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Mountainous Eastern TN beetles appear first week of June (Fleming 1972)
Beetles appear in central Virginia in last week of May- first week of June.(Fleming 1972)
Insect Stage (6-01 – 6-07)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Adult beetles begin to emerge in Maryland & Delaware mid June (Fleming 1972)
Insect Stage (6-08 – 6-14)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Adult beetles begin to emerge in Southern NJ and Southeastern PA in 3rd week of June (Fleming 1972)
Insect Stage (6-15 – 6-21)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Emergence in mountainous regions of NJ and PA 1-2 weeks later (Fleming 1972)
Emergence in Southeastern NY, CT, RI and Southern MA in last week of June (Fleming 1972)
Insect Stage (6-22 – 6-30)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Emergence begins in Southern NH and VT in first week of July (Fleming 1972)
Insect Stage (7-01 – 7-07)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Insect Stage (7-08 – 7-14)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
Frequency of Occurrence (30year)
0 6
6 12
12 18
18 24
24 30
Insect Stage (7-15 – 7-21)
Search: Value = ‘Overwinter – Adult’Map Updated: 7/27/2010
20
Infection is often the rate limiting step in an epidemic because it requires moisture which is often limited in terrestrial environments
Infection can be modeled by a temperature /moisture response function - a mathematical function that describes the response of an organism to temperature and moisture
Pathogen infection model
21
Pathogen Infection Parameters
• Tmin = Min. temperature for infection, oC,
• Tmax = Max. temperature for infection, oC,
• Topt = Opt. temperature for infection, oC,
• Wmin = Minimum wetness duration requirement, h
Parameters established in laboratory studies
22
Citrus black spot, Guignardia citricarpa
CBS is primarily a disease of fruit (Kotzé, 2000), although leaves and stems are also infected (CABI, 2002). All commercially grown Citrus spp. are susceptible to CBS, with the exception of sour orange (C. aurantium L.) and its hybrids.
SUBJECT: Confirmation of Citrus Black Spot (Guignardia citricapra) in Florida
TO: STATE AND TERRITORY AGRICULTURAL REGULATORY OFFICIALS
On April 7, 2010, the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS), Plant Protection and Quarantine (PPQ) confirmed the identification of Citrus Black Spot (Guignardia citricapra; CBS) on citrus fruit from Collier County, Florida. The CBS-infected fruit samples were collected from commercial Valencia orange groves. This is the first confirmation of CBS in the United States.
Breaking News
24
Model Parameters
In Florida, the months of April, May and June represent the first three months after fruit set and the period of greatest fruit susceptibility (Mosser and Aerts, 2007; Kotze, 1981). We chose to use a more extensive 5 month window of susceptibility.
25
Guignardia citricarpa
Climate Databases
What models are used to make risk maps/ products in NAPPFAST?
What types of risk products are available?
How can we get products to users?
InterpretationSubject matter
expertsGovernment
Regulatory toolsRegulatory officials
University Industry
Analysis
Salesdata GPDDPhytosanitary Foreign cargo DataNth AmericanStation
Global 32kgrid
SQLData
IntegrationMultiple systems
DisseminationStakeholders/Users IndustryPublicPolicy
Modified from Magarey et al. Bioscience 2009 v59 p 880
GBIF
GIS
Day degree
Pathway
Climate matching
Venn
InfectionEmpirical
Risk analysts/ Researcher
Generic Cyberinfrastructure Interface
ConfidentialSlide courtesy Joe Russo, Copyright © 2009 ZedX Inc.
Navigation Map
Data Tree
Action Bar
Role 2
Tool Details
Role 1Admin
Tools
Tool Calendar
Product Tree
(Collapsible)
NAPPFAST– Exotic Pest Targeting Tool
Planning Risk Maps for Helicoverpa armigera
NAPPFAST– Exotic Pest Targeting Tool
Weekly Phenology Maps for Cactoblastis cactorum
Conclusions
NAPPFAST Modeling tools include day degree models, infection models, empirical and climate matching
NAPPFAST is an emerging cyberinfrastructure for exotic pest risk analysis and modeling.
NAPPFAST has spatial products that include planning risk maps, phenology models and aerial imagery.
More information see www.nappfast.org