Nanotechnology From 1959 to 2029

Challenges & Opportunities:

The Future of Nano & Bio Technologies

Chris Phoenix

Overview

Important time periods➲ Feynman to mid-80's➲ 1986 to 2007➲ 2008 to 2022➲ 2022 to 2029

Important technologies➲ Nanoscale technologies➲ Molecular manufacturing➲ Other significant technologies

Before “Nanotechnology”

➲ Richard Feynman, 1959:“There's Plenty of Room at the Bottom”

➲ Colloids➲ Electron microscopes➲ Von Neumann➲ Early 80's: Drexler publishes peer-

reviewed articles

Mid 1980's: Nanotechnology Begins

➲ Drexler publishes Engines of Creation

➲ Foresight Institute founded➲ “Grey goo” worries begin➲ “Universal assembler,”

“disassembler”➲ “Nanotechnology”

Early Molecular Manufacturing

➲ Based on biology● Small manufacturing systems● Organic-like chemistry

➲ High performance➲ Large potential impact➲ Attracted transhumanists,

cryonicists, etc.

Molecular Manufacturing's Power

Scaling lawsLow friction and wearGeneral-purpose manufacturingHighly reliable operationHigh material strengthInexpensive material (carbon)

Skepticism

➲ How can a machine reproduce?➲ Won't quantum uncertainty...?➲ How can you power it?➲ How can you control it?➲ Chemistry is too unreliable!

Nanomedicine

➲ Build with molecules --> meet cells at their own level.

➲ Small and numerous --> whole-body interventions

➲ Respirocytes, etc.➲ 1999: Freitas --> Nanomedicine I➲ 1996-2002: Vasculoid

Vasculoid: Replace Blood

➲ 150 trillion plates lining blood vessels

➲ 166 T boxes transport molecules and cells inside hollow tube

➲ Avoid bleeding, poisons, metastasized cancer, etc.

➲ Extremely aggressive but appears possible

➲ 111 pages long, 587 references

1990's: Concepts Mature

➲ Drexler publishes Nanosystems● Lots of physics analysis● Diamondoid● Nanofactories● Largely ignored outside community

➲ Other “nanotechnology”➲ Skepticism (e.g. SciAm)

Physics of Nanosystems

Scaling LawsPower density ~ L^-1Component density ~ L^-3Operation frequency ~ L^-1Relative throughput ~ L^-4

Atom-scale PhysicsSuperlubricityDiscrete dimensionsQuantum phenomena

2000: Nanotech Goes Mainstream

➲ National Nanotechnology Initiative● $1B per year for nanotech● Nanotech defined as anything small

and interesting➲ “Why The Future Doesn't Need Us”

● Stated that one “oops” could destroy the world with grey goo

➲ Strong incentive to marginalize molecular manufacturing

Nanoscale Technologies

Build small objects and structuresUse big machinesLimited product range Diverse but limited applicationsLots of cool physics tricksNot just one technology; not even a

familyMaterials, not products

2000-2007

➲ Nanoscale tech advances in many directions

➲ Nanoparticle concerns➲ CRN founded Dec. 2002➲ Drexler/Smalley debate➲ NMAB report➲ Opposition to MM slowly fades

Nanoscale tech in the stone age

➲ Unlock natural properties➲ Access the small stuff indirectly➲ Very sophisticated techniques

needed➲ Useful and complex products➲ Limited flexibility

➲ Ask a flint knapper to make a gear...(Ask a flint knapper what good a gear

is...)

2000-2007 (continued)

➲ Nanofactory architecture matures➲ Foresight/Battelle Productive

Nanosystems Roadmap➲ NanoRex➲ Zyvex➲ Nanofactory Collaboration➲ Ideas Factory

Nanofactory Architecture

➲ “Design of a Primitive Nanofactory”● Chris Phoenix, Oct. 2003, JETpress● Demonstrate that nanofactories could

be bootstrapped quickly● Physical architecture, power,

redundancy, product specification and capabilities, bootstrapping time, etc., etc.

● 73 pages

Burch/Drexler Nanofactory

➲ “Productive Nanosystems: From Molecules To Superproducts”

➲ Video released July 2005➲ Introduced planar assembly➲ Obsoleted about ¼ of Primitive

Nanofactory paper

NIAC Contract

➲ With Tee Toth-Fejel➲ Developed bootstrapping concepts➲ Fleshed out planar-assembly

nanofactory architecture➲ Showed one of many ways to

develop exponential manufacturing

“Tattoo Needle” architecture

Recent tech advances

➲ Oyabu: Pick and place silicon atoms

➲ Schafmeister: rigid biopolymer➲ Rothemund: DNA staples➲ Freitas, Merkle, Drexler, Allis:

mechanosynthesis studies➲ Seeman: DNA building DNA

2008-2015

➲ Nanoscale tech continues● Better computers● Medicine(!)● Materials● Sensors

➲ Molecular manufacturing continues● More scanning probe chemistry● Better designs● More mainstream acceptance

2016-2022

➲ Diamond fabrication by SPM➲ Push for a nanofactory (may

happen earlier)➲ Nanoscale science matures➲ Nanoscale tech keeps growing,

needs better manufacturing➲ Recognition of MM implications??➲ Nanofactory??

2023-2029

General-purpose nanotech manufacturing accelerates other technologies

● Medicine● Brain/machine interface● Spaceflight● Computers/networks/sensors● Planet-scale engineering(?)

Bootstrapping Options

➲ Direct diamond synthesis (Freitas)➲ Biopolymer machines (Drexler)➲ Molecular building blocks (Toth-

Fejel)➲ Top-down manufacturing (Hall)➲ Other covalent solids

Development Cost of MM

In 1980's, tens or hundreds of $BIn 1990's, a few $BIn 2000's, several hundred $MIn 2010's, tens of $MIn 2020's, a few $M(This is for a ten-year program)

Would have been worth it in 1980!

Conclusion

➲ Molecular manufacturing will be developed soon

➲ This is where nanotechnology is going

➲ It will be more powerful, and more impactful, than we can easily imagine