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COMPANY PROFILE Engro Corp Ltd is a fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists of various businesses which includes fertilizers, foods, chemical storage and handling, trading, energy and petrochemicals. Business activity of the group is primarily functioned through Pakistan. Target Price PKR370.68 Stock Price PKR320.53 Sector Basic Materials - Agriculture - Agricultural Inputs @ 11 Mar 2019 Name of Company Country of Origin/ Exchange Traded ENGRO CORP LTD Pakistan/ KAR Stock Code Annual Dividend Yield 6.8% Market Capitalization PKR167.89 billion ENGRO 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % % 2016 2017 Breakdown of revenue by product Fertilizer Food Polymer Other Power 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% % % 2016 2017 Breakdown of revenue by region Pakistan Stock Report from ProThinker Page 1 of 32

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Page 1: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

COMPANY PROFILE Engro Corp Ltd is a fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers.

Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and

marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists of various businesses which includes fertilizers,

foods, chemical storage and handling, trading, energy and petrochemicals. Business

activity of the group is primarily functioned through Pakistan.

Target Price

PKR370.68

Stock Price

PKR320.53

Sector

Basic Materials -

Agriculture - Agricultural

Inputs

@ 11 Mar 2019

Name of Company Country of Origin/

Exchange Traded

ENGRO CORP LTD Pakistan/

KAR

Stock Code

Annual Dividend Yield 6.8%

Market Capitalization PKR167.89 billion

ENGRO

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% %

2016 2017

Breakdown of revenue by

product

Fertilizer Food Polymer Other Power

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

% %

2016 2017

Breakdown of revenue by

region

Pakistan

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 1 of 32

Page 2: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Financial Condition

The company's operational efficiency is moderately high. Operational Efficiency

The company's financial condition is quite weak.

EBIT Growth for the company is moderately positive.

The quality of the company's earnings is very high.

Based on the Composite Valuation Indicator, the stock has a Target Price of PKR370.68

within a 12-month period. Our Target Price represents upside of 15.6% based on stock

price of PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019.

Quality of Earnings

SUMMARY

Valuation

Growth

Analyst Revision The analyst revision score, which considers EPS revision, stock target price revision and

consensus recommendation revision, is mildly negative.

-

25

50

75

100Valuation

Growth

Financial Condition

Quality of Earnings

Operational Efficiency

Analysts Opinion

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 2 of 32

Page 3: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Valuation

At the price of PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019, Engro Corp Ltd is trading at a Price to EBIT Ratio of 4.2 times last 12

months earnings. This is a 17.6% premium to its current fair Price to EBIT Ratio of 3.6 times. (Price based on the fair

Price to EBIT Ratio of the company is indicated by the red line.)

While it is important to value stocks based on multiple indicators, they sometimes lead to differing views on

valuation. One indicator may tell you a stock is overvalued while the other tells you it is undervalued. That is why we

use our proprietary Composite Valuation Indicator whenever possible as it gives you one conclusion based on the

best combination of the different indicators, to tell you whether a stock is under or overvalued. The graphical

format allows you to determine whether or not the composite valuation accurately values the stock and gives you

confidence to act on the decision.

We believe in studying various valuation indicators for a stock. This is because while each valuation indicator has its

benefits, it also has its shortcomings. Price to Earnings and Price to Cash Flow Ratios are meaningless when the

company has negative earnings or cash flows. Price to Sales Ratio is more stable because sales are never negative.

However, this does not tell us whether the company is able to sell profitably. Price to Book Ratio gives us an

indication as to how much we are paying for the company's assets but assets are not directly related to a company's

profitability.

The Price Earnings (PE) Ratio is the most frequently used valuation indicator for a stock. However, there are times

when this ratio cannot be used e.g. when the company reports a loss or profit is so minimal that it results in an

abnormally high PE Ratio. Or Net Profit After Tax may be volatile and it is better to use Earnings Before Interest and

Tax (EBIT) to value the company. We use the PE Band or Price to EBIT Band to show whether a stock is overvalued

or undervalued based on its historical valuation.

In addition, we analyze a long history (typically more than 10 years) so that we can take into account the boom and

bust cycles in order to determine the "normal" valuation of the company.

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Price to EBIT Ratio Stock Price (Price as

at 11 Mar 2019 was

PKR320.53)

Stock prices at 0.5x

fair Price/EBIT ratios

Stock prices at fair

Price/EBIT ratios

Stock prices at 1.5x

fair Price/EBIT ratios

Fair ratios take into account historical

average valuation, profit growth, financial

condition & quality of earnings.

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 3 of 32

Page 4: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The Price to Sales Ratio is another commonly used valuation indicator for a stock. It overcomes some of the

limitations of the Price Earnings Ratio in that it can be used even when the company is not making a profit or only

making minimal profits. However, it should not be used by itself because a company may be achieving sales but not

profits.

At the price of PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019, Engro Corp Ltd is trading at a Price to Sales Ratio of 1.0 times last 12

months sales. This is a 10.0% premium to current fair Price to Sales Ratio of 0.9 times.

Price to Cash Flow is an alternative method to value shares. This is because accounting profits can be subject to

manipulation. Therefore, some investors prefer to value a company based on cash flows generated by the operating

activities of the company. It also acts as a reality check to valuation measures such as Price to Earnings and Price to

Sales. If a company generates high profits and sales but not operating cash flows, it could be heading for trouble

because it is cash that pays the operating expenses. However, the Price to Cash Flow ratio of most firms are volatile

and should not be used in isolation to determine the valuation of the stock. Cash Flow is not relevant for financial

institutions.

At the price of PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019, Engro Corp Ltd is trading at a Price to Cash Flow Ratio of 7.4 times last

12 months cash flow. This is a 25.1% discount to current fair Price to Cash Flow Ratio of 9.9 times.

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Price to Sales Ratio Stock Price (Price as

at 11 Mar 2019 was

PKR320.53)

Stock prices at 0.5x

fair Price to Sales

ratios

Stock prices at fair

Price to Sales ratios

Stock prices at 1.5x

fair Price to Sales

ratiosFair Price to Sales ratios take into account

historical average valuation, revenue

growth, profit margins and financial

condition.

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Price to Cash Flow Stock Price (Price as

at 11 Mar 2019 was

PKR320.53)

Stock prices at 0.5x

fair PCF ratios

Stock prices at fair

PCF ratios

Stock prices at 1.5x

fair PCF ratios

Fair PCF ratios take into account historical

average valuation, cash flow growth and

financial condition.

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 4 of 32

Page 5: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

At the price of PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019, Engro Corp Ltd is trading at a Price to Book Ratio of 1.1 times current

book value. This is a 13.0% discount to current fair Price to Book Ratio of 1.3 times.

For stocks that have a history of paying meaningful dividends, the stock price is often dependent on how much

dividend the company pays.

Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Cash Flow ratios all value a company based on what it is generating (i.e.

profits, sales or cash flow). Price to Book ratio is different in that it values a company based on what it owns (i.e. its

net assets). This is usually a suitable valuation indicator for a financial institution, which frequently revalues its

assets and liabilities, or a company with huge asset base e.g. utilities company.

At the price of PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019, Engro Corp Ltd is trading at a Dividend Yield of 6.8%. This is a 7.4%

premium to its historical average Dividend Yield of 7.3%. (Note: The lower/higher the dividend yield, the more

expensive/cheaper the stock is.)

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Dividend Yield Stock Price (Price as

at 11 Mar 2019 was

PKR320.53)

Stock prices at 150%

of Average Dividend

Yield

Stock Prices at

Average Dividend

Yield of 7.3%

Stock prices at 75% of

Average Dividend

Yield

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Price to Book Ratio Stock Price (Price as

at 11 Mar 2019 was

PKR320.53)

Stock prices at 0.5x

fair Price to Book

ratios

Stock prices at fair

Price to Book ratios

Stock prices at 1.5x

fair Price to Book

ratios

Fair Price to Book ratios take into account

historical average valuation, growth in book

value, ROE and financial condition.

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 5 of 32

Page 6: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Based on the Composite Valuation Indicator, the stock has a Target Price of PKR370.68 within a 12-month period.

Our Target Price represents upside of 15.6% based on stock price of PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019.

The Composite Valuation Indicator is derived after finding the combination of valuation indicators that best explains

the stock price. It recognizes that looking at a single indicator is dangerous and inadequate. It also overcomes the

difficulty of different indicators pointing giving different signals and difficult to act upon if you do not have a

composite valuation. Please note, however, that the Composite Valuation Indicator does not account for situations

when the market is willing to pay a much higher price for the stock because of an anticipated takeover or some

other special event. It is also possible that investors are attributing a lower valuation to the stock than warranted by

the near-term outlook because the stock or sector's long-term prospects are poor.

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Composite Valuation Indicator Stock Price (Price as

at 11 Mar 2019 was

PKR320.53)

Low Valuation

Fair Valuation

High Valuation

Target Price of

PKR370.68 (based on

Composite Valuation

Indicator) Analysts Target Price

of PKR357.00

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 6 of 32

Page 7: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Performance vs. Market

It is not enough to determine whether a stock will appreciate in value. We also want to know whether the

stock will perform better than other stocks in the same market.

In the graph above, the performance of the stock vs. the market is indicated by the blue line. When the blue

line slopes up, it means the stock has outperformed the market. The earnings growth of the stock vs. the

market is indicated by the red line. When the red line slopes up, it means that the stock's earnings growth is

faster than that of the market.

In order for the stock to outperform the market, either the red line has to slope upwards (i.e. superior earnings

growth) or the PE discount narrows/PE premium widens (i.e. blue line moves from below the red line to above

it).

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Performance of stock

vs. market

Performance of stock

vs. market assuming

PE discount of 56.6%

compared to market

Performance of stock

vs. market assuming

PE discount of 13.2%

compared to market

Performance of stock

vs. market assuming

PE premium of 30.2%

compared to market

Ind

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Stock Report from ProThinker Page 7 of 32

Page 8: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Performance vs. Sector

Some portfolios are managed with reference to a global sector benchmark rather than to a country

benchmark. Therefore, it is useful to determine how this stock has performed vs. its sector and what its

performance relative to the sector is expected to be.

In the graph above, the performance of the stock vs. the global sector is indicated by the blue line. When the

blue line slopes up, it means the stock has outperformed the global sector. The earnings growth of the stock

vs. the global sector is indicated by the red line. When the red line slopes up, it means that the stock's earnings

growth is faster than that of the global sector.

In order for the stock to outperform the global sector, either the red line has to slope upwards (i.e. superior

earnings growth) or the PE discount narrows/PE premium widens (i.e. blue line moves from below the red line

to above it).

Comparing a stock's Return on Equity (ROE), Return on Asset (ROA), Net Profit Margin, etc. with the country

index is usually not very helpful as different industries differ widely on those measures. Comparing with other

companies in a broad sector may also not be as useful as some sectors are very broad and contains sub-groups

that have different fundamentals. To make comparison more useful, we compare the stock's fundamentals

with the industry group. These contain stocks that are roughly in the same business as the company.

Comparing the company with these stocks often gives useful insights as to whether the company is well or

badly run.

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Performance of Stock

vs. Basic Materials

Sector

Performance of stock

vs. Sector assuming PE

discount of 81.6%

compared to market

Performance of stock

vs. Sector assuming PE

discount of 63.2%

compared to market

Performance of stock

vs. Sector assuming PE

discount of 44.7%

compared to market

Ind

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Stock Report from ProThinker Page 8 of 32

Page 9: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The company's ROA is usually lower than that of the industry.

The company's ROE is sometimes higher and sometimes lower than that of the industry.

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Return on Equity (ROE)

Agriculture

Company

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ec

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Return on Asset (ROA)

Agriculture

Company

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 9 of 32

Page 10: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The company's financial condition is always weaker than that of the industry.

The company's Net Profit Margin is usually lower than that of the industry.

In order to determine the financial condition of the company, we usually use the Z score, which was introduced by

Edward Altman, a Professor of Finance at New York University. This score is a composite measure of a firm's

financial condition and has been proven to be able to predict with high accuracy whether a firm will go into

bankruptcy within the next two years.

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0.0%

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Net Profit Margin

Agriculture

Company

0.0

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Altman Z-Score

Agriculture

Company

Below this

Distress Zone

Above this Safe

Zone

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 10 of 32

Page 11: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Growth

YoY growth

2018 thousands of PKR 33.4%2019 thousands of PKR -10.8%2020 thousands of PKR 25.7%

YoY growth

2018 PKR 35.3%

2019 PKR 51.0%

2020 PKR 28.3%

36.70

171,568,000 153,117,000

Earnings per Share

47.10

Earnings per Share has been erratic. Below are analysts' forecasts of the growth in EPS for the next few years.

Earnings trend can also be seen from the Price to Earnings or Price to EBIT Ratio graphs above.

192,432,000

24.30

Total Revenue

Revenue has been on a downtrend since 2015. Revenue growth has been erratic. Below are analysts' forecasts of

revenue for the next few years.

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(historical)

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Earnings per Share

Earnings per

Share

(historical)

Earnings per

Share

(forecasted)

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 11 of 32

Page 12: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The first two ways are healthy ways to grow its ROE but it may be undesirable for a company to grow its ROE by

borrowing more if the company's financial condition is already weak. This is why it is so important to beyond

determining whether a company's ROE is improving to determining what the company did to improve its ROE. If the

company grew its ROE by borrowing more, it is important to gauge the company's financial condition to see if it is

still healthy.

The ROE of the company has been erratic. The latest ROE of the company is 7.2% for financial year ending Dec 2017.

When analyzing ROE trends, it is important to know why ROE is going up or down. There are three main ways ROE

can improve.

1. If the company is able to generate more sales per dollar of assets (what we call Asset Turnover)

2. When the company is able to improve its Net Profit Margin

3. When the company borrows more (what we call Equity Multiplier)

Return on Equity (ROE) measures the amount of profit a company makes with the money that shareholders have

invested. A rising ROE is an indication of improving management efficiency. It is also an indication of how fast the

company can grow in future through profits that are retained and not distributed as dividends.

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

50.0%

20

20

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Return on Equity (ROE)

Return on

Equity - ROE

(historical)

Return on

Equity - ROE

(forecasted)

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 12 of 32

Page 13: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Asset Turnover measures the amount of

revenue a company is generating from its

assets. Uptrend/downtrend indicates that

the company is becoming more/less efficient

in the use of its assets.

The company's Asset Turnover has been

deteriorating since 2015. The latest Asset

Turnover of the company is 39.7% for 12

months ending Dec 2017.

On the other hand, companies may choose to

reduce their leverage and have lower ROE.

The company's Earnings Multiplier has been

on a downtrend since 2012, which means the

company is borrowing less. The latest Equity

Multiplier of the company is 246.4% for 12

months ending Dec 2017.

Equity Multiplier measures the extend of

borrowings the company has vs. its assets.

Uptrend/downtrend indicates that the

company is borrowing more/less. Companies

borrow more to help them to leverage their

operations and improve ROE.

Net Profit Margin measures the amount of

money the company makes after it deducts

all expenses. Uptrend/downtrend indicates

that the company is more/less profitable.

The company's Net Profit Margin has been

on an uptrend since 2012

A company may be growing at a fast rate historically but how do I know this rapid growth rate is sustainable? Is the

company inflating its earnings through suspicious accounting practices. These questions requires that we look in

greater detail at the Quality of Earnings.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Asset Turnover (Revenue/Assets)

0%

100%

200%

300%

400%

500%

600%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Equity Multiplier (Asset/Equity)

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Net Profit Margin (Net

Income/Revenue)

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 13 of 32

Page 14: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Quality of Earnings

A score of less than -2.22 suggests that the company is not a profit manipulator and a score above -2.22 suggests

that the company might be manipulating its profits. The company's M-Score has been erratic. However, the latest M-

Score of the company as at Dec 2017 was -2.87, which suggests that the company has not been been manipulating

its profits.

A company's earnings should not be taken at face value. By that we mean that we should look deep into the

accounts to gauge the probability that the company may be relying on account techniques to boost earnings. A

company that has been showing strong profit growth or is expected to do so usually trades at a high valuation. This

may put tremendous pressure on management to announce good growth to the extent of resorting to accounting

techniques to do so. On the other hand, a company that is struggling to report growth in its business may also rely

on accounting techiques to boost earnings. These methods will catch up with the company one day and when that

happens there is usually a large negative earnings surprise and share price decline.

To detect the likelihood of earnings manipulation, two commonly used methods are the Beneish M-Score and the

Sloan Accrual Ratio. Since it is difficult for one ratio to catch all occurences of profit manipulation, we put the two

scores into a composite to have a better chance to spot earnings manipulation.

The Beneish M-score is a measure the likelihood of a company manipulating its earnings. Based on this formula, a

company is more likely to manipulate earnings if:

* Sales is not translating to cash and receivables are growing

* Gross profit margin is declining giving the company pressure to manipulate earnings

* The company is growing its non-tangible assets which may be used to manipulate earnings

* High sales growth puts pressure on the company to continue to report high growth by manipulating earnings

* A lower rate of depreciation may be a sign that the company wants to boost its earnings

* Lower selling and admin expenses as a percentage of sales may point to the fact that some sales may not be real

(4.0)

(3.5)

(3.0)

(2.5)

(2.0)

(1.5)

(1.0)

(0.5)

-

0.5

1.0

1.5

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Beneish M-Score

M-Score

Below this

line suggests

company is

not profit

manipulator

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 14 of 32

Page 15: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The latest Sloan Accrual Ratio is neutral.

The quality of the company's earnings is very high.

Since it is not possible for one indicator to capture all instances of earnings manipulation, whenever possible,

ProThinker employs both methods to arrive at a Composite Score of the company's earnings quality. A score of 25

and below (the red line) indicates a higher probability that earnings may have been manipulated.

The Sloan Accrual Ratio measures the extent to which a firm's earnings comprise of accrual (i.e. non-cash) items. In

other words, the company makes profit but they do not translate to cash because of some of these reasons:

* Sales are made on credit to customers and not yet paid

* Money is spent on buying more inventory

* Increased earnings comes from reducing depreciation expense, which is non-cash

Earnings with high accrual (or non-cash) component are more likely to be reversed in future resulting in earnings

disappointment and share price falls.

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Sloan Accrual Ratio

Sloan Ratio

If it goes near or above the

red line, quality of earnings

not as good

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Composite Quality of Earnings Index

Quality of

Earnings Score

Below this

point low

quality

earnings

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 15 of 32

Page 16: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Dividends

2018 -8.7%

2019 16.7%

2020 10.2%

Dividend per share has been on a downtrend since 2016.

Forecasted future dividend per share growth are as follows:

The company usually pays less dividends than its free cash flow, which is good.

We should not only be concerned about the amount of dividends, we should determine if the dividends paid out by

the company are sustainable. One way to do that is to compare dividends paid out to the cash flows that the

company is generating.

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

20

20

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Dividend per Share

Dividend per Share

(historical)

Dividend per Share

(forecasted)

0

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

20

20

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20

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20

16

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14

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13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

In t

ho

usa

nd

s o

f P

KR

Dividends vs. Free Cash Flows

Total

dividends

(historical)

Free Cash

Flows

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 16 of 32

Page 17: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Operational Efficiency

The Piotroski Score measures the operational efficiency of a company. It is a well-rounded indicator that measures

profitability, quality of earnings, financial condition and operating efficiency. Research has show that companies

with high Piotroski scores outperform those with low scores. Piotroski scores range from a low of zero to a high of

nine based on whether the company passes or fails certain criteria. This measure is not used to evaluate financial

institutions as some of the components of the formula are not relevant.

Dividend Yield has been erratic. The company did not buy back its shares during this period.

Dividend is not the only way that a company returns money back to shareholders. Another way it could do so is via

share buybacks.

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

Piotroski Score

Piotroski

Score

Above this

line, quality

of company

is strong

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

9.0%

20

20

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Dividends & Share Buybacks

Dividend

Yield

Buyback

Yield

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 17 of 32

Page 18: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Criteria Score

1

-

1

1

1

-

1

1

-

6

The company's Piotroski score has been erratic. The latest Piotroski score is 6, which is in the moderate zone.

Return on Asset (Net Income / Asset) is positive

Cash Flow Return on Asset (Cash from Operations / Asset) is

Change in Return on Asset is positive over previous year

Cash Flow Return on Asset higher than Return on Asset

Return on Asset measures a company's ability to generate profits from the

use of its assets.

Cash Flow Return on Assets goes one step further to ensure that it is not

just paper profits but cash flow that the company is generating.

Current Ratio is a measure of a company's liquidity position and

determines whether it has sufficient liquid assets to meet short-term

liabilities.

The number of shares is compared with the previous year as a company

that is not generating healthy cash flow may end up raising new equity

and this is indicative of the health of the company.

Gross Profit Margin is a measure of whether the company is selling its

products/services at a high enough margin to cover its operating

expenses.

Asset Turnover is a measure of how well a company uses its assets to

generate sales.

Change in Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) is

Change in long-term debt / Asset is positive (i.e. borrowing less)

Number of shares this year less than last year

Change in Gross Profit Margin is positive

Change in Asset Turnover (Sales / Assets) is positive

Total (Piotroski Score)

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 18 of 32

Page 19: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Financial Condition

The more profits are retained within the firm,

the greater the buffer of reserves for the

company to weather difficult times.

The level of retained earnings relative to

assets has been on an uptrend since 2012.

Currently, retained earnings are at 33.5% of

total assets.

In order to determine the financial condition of the company, we usually use the Z score, which was introduced by

Edward Altman, a Professor of Finance at New York University. This score is a composite measure of a firm's

financial condition and has been proven to be able to predict with high accuracy whether a firm will go into

bankruptcy within the next two years.

It is important to analyze the financial condition of the company you want to invest in because if a company goes

bankrupt, the chances are high that you will lose all your investment. Even if the company does not go bankrupt, the

deterioration in financial condition will cause more and more investors to avoid the company and valuation will

drop. Weak financial condition also limits the opportunities that a company has to grow its business.

The various components that go into the Z-Score are shown below:

Altman Z-Score has been erratic. The main

reasons for this are:

* higher working capital

* higher retained earnings as a proportion of

total assets

* higher EBIT as a proportion of total assets

* lower level of borrowings

The latest Z-Score of the company as at Dec

2017 was 2.0, which is near the distressed zone.

This is the Revenue Turnover ratio and it

reflects the amount of revenue the company

is able to generate from the use of its assets.

Companies that have difficulty generating

revenue cannot generate consistent cash

flow to pay its bills.

The amount of revenue generated from

assets has been on a downtrend since 2015.

0.10

1.00

10.00

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Altman Z-Score

Altman Z-

Score

Below this

Distress Zone

Above this

Safe Zone

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Retained Earnings/Total

Assets

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Revenue/Total Assets

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 19 of 32

Page 20: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

This measures the ability of the company to

generate EBIT (earnings before interest and

taxes) from its assets.

EBIT as a % of assets has been erratic.

Currently, EBIT is at 9.8% of total assets.

This is an indication of the level of borrowings

of the firm. A high level of borrowings will

affect survivability as it may not have enough

cash flows to meet its debt obligations.

The level of borrowings of the company has

been erratic.

Working capital is essential to the operations of the company and a low level of working capital may

result in liquidity problems. Working capital relative to total assets has been on an uptrend since

2014.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Return on Asset

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Market Cap/Total Liabilities

Plo

tte

d i

n r

ev

ers

e s

cale

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

20

19

20

18

20

17

20

16

20

15

20

14

20

13

20

12

20

11

20

10

20

09

20

08

Working Capital/Total Assets

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 20 of 32

Page 21: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Cash Flow Analysis

In a healthy situation, a company should get most of its Cash from Operations by increasing its Funds from

Operations (i.e. Net Income plus Non-cash expenses). When a business grows, part of the profits may be tied up in

working capital (as receivables and inventory increases) but this should not consume a significant portion of Cash

from Operations.

Cash is the lifeline of a business. The company needs cash, not profits to pay salaries, suppliers etc. Profits may not

translate to cash if a company is not efficient in managing its Cash Conversion Cycle (more of that below). For

example, when a company sells a product at a price higher than costs, it makes a profit. But until he collects

payment from the customer, the profit does not translate into cash. Cash Flow Analysis is about analyzing whether a

company is able to generate healthy cash flows, which are essential not only to grow the business but also to

remain in business.

From 2013 to 2017, the company's cash increased cash by PKR38,451,780 million. Cash from Operations increased

cash by PKR91,822,360 million, Cash from Investing Activities decreased cash by PKR37,621,870 million while Cash

from Financing Activities decreased cash by PKR15,748,700 million. The most important contributor to cash is Cash

from Operations, which is a healthy sign.

(50,000,000)

(40,000,000)

(30,000,000)

(20,000,000)

(10,000,000)

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cash Flow AnalysisCash Flow from

Operations

Cash Flow from

Financing

Cash Flow from

Investing

Net Change in Cash

(30,000,000.00)

(20,000,000.00)

(10,000,000.00)

-

10,000,000.00

20,000,000.00

30,000,000.00

40,000,000.00

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cash from Operations Funds from Operations

(i.e. Net Income plus

Non-cash expenses)

Change in working

capital

Cash Flow from

Discontinued

Operations

Cash Flow from Other

Operating Activities

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 21 of 32

Page 22: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The company financed its dividend payments and/or share buybacks partially with increased borrowings.

From 2013 to 2017, the company's Cash from Financing Activities decreased cash by PKR15,748,700 million. The

biggest item affecting Cash from Financing Activities is Cash Flow from Dividends, which decreased cash by

PKR45,703,840 million. This is followed by Other Financing, which increased cash by PKR26,049,250 million. This

means that the company borrowed more from other sources.

From 2013 to 2017, the company's Cash from Operations increased cash by PKR91,822,360 million. The biggest item

affecting Cash from Operations is Funds from Operations (i.e. Net Income plus Non-cash expenses), which increased

cash by PKR132,496,180 million. This is a healthy sign. This is followed by Cash Flow from Other Operating Activities,

which decreased cash by PKR30,065,130 million.

From 2013 to2017, the company's Cash from Investing Activities decreased cash by PKR37,621,870 million. The

biggest item affecting this is (Purchase)/Sale Of Property, Plant, Equipment, which decreased cash by

PKR80,486,140 million. This is followed by (Purchase)/Sale Of Business, which increased cash by PKR50,705,180

million.

A growing company may continuously need to raise funds via issuance of stock and debt. However, if this is done

excessive, it will lead to an unhealthy situation. Too much new issue of stocks will dilute Earnings per Share and too

much debt will cause the company's financial condition to weaken. Payment of Dividends or share buybacks are

good if the company is profitable and generating healthy Cash from Operations. However, a company should not be

issuing new debt in order to do these.

Cash Flow from Investing Activities refers to whether the company is spending money to purchase assets or

businesses or raising cash by selling assets or businesses. This analysis goes hand-in-hand with the analysis of Free

Cash Flows above. We want to ensure that a company is generating enough cash flow from its businesses even after

making the necessary investments. Unless investment is a core component of a company's business e.g. financial

institution, it should not be spending a large amount of cash to make investments.

(40,000,000)

(30,000,000)

(20,000,000)

(10,000,000)

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cash from Financing Activities

Cash Flow for Dividends

Net Issuance of Stock

Net Issuance of Debt

Other Financing

(80,000,000)

(60,000,000)

(40,000,000)

(20,000,000)

-

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Cash from Investing ActivitiesNet Sale/(Purchase) of

Property, Plant,

Equipment

Net Sale/(Purchase) of

Business

Net Sale/(Purchase) of

Investment

Cash Flow from

Investing Activities

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 22 of 32

Page 23: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

A company typically goes through this cycle: purchase inventory, work on the product, sell on credit and collect

from customers. The period taken from the time it pays for the inventory in cash to the time it collects back cash

from its customers is called the Cash Conversion Cycle.

Cash Conversion Cycle has been lengthening (deteriorating) since 2014. The latest Cash Conversion Cycle of the

company as at Dec 2017 was 43.2 days.

During this period…

* Inventory Days contributed negatively to the Cash Conversion Cycle.

* Receivables Days contributed negatively to the Cash Conversion Cycle.

* Payables Days contributed negatively to the Cash Conversion Cycle.

The Cash Conversion Cycle comprises the time inventory remains in the factory (production and selling cycle) and

the time it takes for your customers to pay you (customer credit period), less the time you take to pay your

suppliers (supplier credit period). The company's Cash Conversion Cycle is depicted graphically below. Generally, the

shorter the cash conversion cycle the better.

Cash Conversion Cycle

(200.0)

(150.0)

(100.0)

(50.0)

-

50.0

100.0

150.0

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

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20

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20

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14

20

15

20

16

20

17

Cash Conversion Cycle

Inventory Days Receivables Days Payables Days Cash Conversion Cycle

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 23 of 32

Page 24: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Inventory Days refers to the average number

of days inventory stays in the company

before being sold. Lengthening Inventory

Days could be due to prolonged production

or sales cycle. A service company does not

have any inventory cycle.

Inventory Days has been lengthening

(deteriorating) since 2014. The latest

Inventory Days as at Dec 2017 was 80.7 days.

Receivables Days reflect the average time it

takes for the company to collect cash from its

customers. If the company is increasingly

collecting cash later than its credit terms, this

may be an indication of potential bad debts.

Receivables Days has been lengthening

(deteriorating) since 2013. The latest

Receivables Days as at Dec 2017 was 39.3

days.

This measures the average length of time

company takes to pay supplers. A

lengtheneing period could mean company is

able to extend credit term from suppliers but

may also be symptomatic of payment

problems.

Payables Days has been shorterning since

2014. The latest Payables Days as at Dec

2017 was 76.7 days.

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

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08

Receivables Days

-

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

140.0

160.0

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Payables Days

-

20.0

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120.0

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08

Inventory Days

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 24 of 32

Page 25: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Analyst Estimates and Recommendations

Analysts estimates for 12-month forward EPS has been on an uptrend since Dec 2017.

Analysts estimates for 12-month forward Sales has been on an uptrend since Dec 2017.

The blue line represents the 12-month forward EPS estimates of analysts, which is derived from estimates for the

next two years.

The blue line represents the 12-month forward sales estimates of analysts, which is derived from estimates for the

next two years.

De

c…

Oct

Au

g…

Jun

Ap

r…

Fe

b…

De

c…

Oct

Au

g…

Jun

Ap

r…

Fe

b…

De

c…

Oct

Au

g…

Jun

Ap

r…

Fe

b…

De

c…

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1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

De

c 2

01

9

Oct

20

19

Au

g 2

01

9

Jun

20

19

Ap

r 2

01

9

Fe

b 2

01

9

De

c 2

01

8

Oct

20

18

Au

g 2

01

8

Jun

20

18

Ap

r 2

01

8

Fe

b 2

01

8

De

c 2

01

7

Oct

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7

Jun

20

17

Ap

r 2

01

7

Fe

b 2

01

7

De

c 2

01

6Analyst estimates for 12-month forward EPS

12-MTH

FORWARD

EPS

UPGRADES

(inner scale)

12-MTH

FORWARD

EPS

UNCHANGED

(inner scale)

12-MTH

FORWARD

EPS

DOWNGRADE

S (inner scale)

De

c…

Oct

Au

g…

Jun

Ap

r…

Fe

b…

De

c…

Oct

Au

g…

Jun

Ap

r…

Fe

b…

De

c…

Oct

Au

g…

Jun

Ap

r…

Fe

b…

De

c…

120,000.0

125,000.0

130,000.0

135,000.0

140,000.0

145,000.0

150,000.0

155,000.0

160,000.0

165,000.0

-

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

De

c 2

01

9

Oct

20

19

Au

g 2

01

9

Jun

20

19

Ap

r 2

01

9

Fe

b 2

01

9

De

c 2

01

8

Oct

20

18

Au

g 2

01

8

Jun

20

18

Ap

r 2

01

8

Fe

b 2

01

8

De

c 2

01

7

Oct

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7

Jun

20

17

Ap

r 2

01

7

Fe

b 2

01

7

De

c 2

01

6

Analyst estimates for 12-month forward Sales 12-MTH

FORWARD

Sales

UPGRADES

(inner scale) 12-MTH

FORWARD

Sales

UNCHANGED

(inner scale) 12-MTH

FORWARD

Sales

DOWNGRADE

S (inner scale) 12-MTH

FORWARD

Sales (outer

scale)

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 25 of 32

Page 26: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Besides coming up with target prices for the stock, analysts also issue recommendations on what to do with the

stock. They fall into five categories with Buy being the most positive and Sell being the most negative. The

Consensus Score is a weighted score of these recommendations. If all analysts call for a Buy, the stock will have a

Consensus Score of 1 and if all call for a sell it would have a Consensus Score of 5. Therefore, the smaller the

number the better and any score less than 3 is positive.

Consensus recommendation for the stock has been on a deteriorating trend since Jan 2018.

135791113151719212325272931333537

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0 -

2

4

6

8

10

12

De

c 2

01

9

Oct

20

19

Au

g 2

01

9

Jun

20

19

Ap

r 2

01

9

Fe

b 2

01

9

De

c 2

01

8

Oct

20

18

Au

g 2

01

8

Jun

20

18

Ap

r 2

01

8

Fe

b 2

01

8

De

c 2

01

7

Oct

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7

Jun

20

17

Ap

r 2

01

7

Fe

b 2

01

7

De

c 2

01

6

Analyst Recommendations Buy (inner scale)

Outperform

Hold

Underperform

Sell

Consensus Score

(outer scale)

Above this line

analysts positive

about stock

Plo

tte

d i

n r

eve

rse

sca

le

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 26 of 32

Page 27: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

When analysts are optimistic about the market or sector, most stocks will get a Buy/Outperform rating leading to

good consensus scores and vice versa. In order to make a decision on a stock, it is not enough to know its consensus

score but also to see where it stands vs. the other stocks in the country or sector.

The stock has a consensus score that is the same as the majority score in Pakistan.

The stock has a consensus score that is the same as the majority score in the Basic Materials Sector.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40% >

1.0

0

> 1

.25

> 1

.50

> 1

.75

> 2

.00

> 2

.25

> 2

.50

> 2

.75

> 3

.00

> 3

.25

> 3

.50

> 3

.75

> 4

.00

> 4

.25

> 4

.50

> 4

.75

% o

f C

om

pa

nie

s

Distribution of consensus scores in Pakistan

Pakistan Stock

The lower the score,

the better.

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

> 1

.00

> 1

.25

> 1

.50

> 1

.75

> 2

.00

> 2

.25

> 2

.50

> 2

.75

> 3

.00

> 3

.25

> 3

.50

> 3

.75

> 4

.00

> 4

.25

> 4

.50

> 4

.75

% o

f C

om

pa

nie

s

Distribution of consensus scores in Basic Materials

Sector

Basic Materials Sector Stock

The lower the score,

the better.

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 27 of 32

Page 28: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The stock is currently trading at a discount of 10.2% compared to a historical discount of 11.7%.

This chart shows the high, low and median target price of the stock by analysts. The columns indicate how many

analysts are upgrading, downgrading or keeping their target price constant for the past few months.

Analysts set target prices for stocks, which influence the actual price of the stock. However, stocks do not always

trade at the mean analyst target price and may trade at premium or discount to it. Some stocks usually trade at a

certain average premium or discount and deviation from this may indicate trading opportunities.

Analysts' target price for the stock has been erratic. The ratio of upgrades to downgrades has been improving since

Oct 2018.

Nov

2018

Sep

2018

Jul

2018

May

2018

Mar

2018

Jan

2018

Nov

2017

Sep

2017

Jul

2017

May

2017

Mar

2017

Jan

2017

Nov

2016

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

No

v 2

01

8O

ct 2

01

8S

ep

20

18

Au

g 2

01

8Ju

l 2

01

8Ju

n 2

01

8M

ay 2

01

8A

pr

20

18

Ma

r 2

01

8F

eb

20

18

Jan

20

18

De

c 2

01

7N

ov 2

01

7O

ct 2

01

7S

ep

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7Ju

l 2

01

7Ju

n 2

01

7M

ay 2

01

7A

pr

20

17

Ma

r 2

01

7F

eb

20

17

Jan

20

17

De

c 2

01

6N

ov 2

01

6

Analyst Target Price

Upgrading

(inner scale)

Stable

Downgrading

Mean Target

Price (outer

scale)

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

No

v 2

01

8O

ct 2

01

8S

ep

20

18

Au

g 2

01

8Ju

l 2

01

8Ju

n 2

01

8M

ay 2

01

8A

pr

20

18

Ma

r 2

01

8F

eb

20

18

Jan

20

18

De

c 2

01

7N

ov 2

01

7O

ct 2

01

7S

ep

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7Ju

l 2

01

7Ju

n 2

01

7M

ay 2

01

7A

pr

20

17

Ma

r 2

01

7F

eb

20

17

Jan

20

17

De

c 2

01

6N

ov 2

01

6

Analyst Target Price vs. Actual Price

Analyst

Target Price

Actual Stock

Price

-20.0%

-18.0%

-16.0%

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

No

v 2

01

8O

ct 2

01

8S

ep

20

18

Au

g 2

01

8Ju

l 2

01

8Ju

n 2

01

8M

ay 2

01

8A

pr

20

18

Ma

r 2

01

8F

eb

20

18

Jan

20

18

De

c 2

01

7N

ov 2

01

7O

ct 2

01

7S

ep

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7Ju

l 2

01

7Ju

n 2

01

7M

ay 2

01

7A

pr

20

17

Ma

r 2

01

7F

eb

20

17

Jan

20

17

De

c 2

01

6N

ov 2

01

6

Premium /

(Discount) of

Actual vs. Analyst

Target Price

Average Premium

/ (Discount)

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 28 of 32

Page 29: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Stock Price & Technical Indicators

The 50-day moving average line crossed the 200-day moving average line from the bottom in Feb 2018, which is a

bullish sign.

If the standard deviation of stock prices (as represented by the red bars) get higher (lower), it means that stock

prices have become more (less) volatile.

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

De

c 2

01

9

Jul

20

19

Fe

b 2

01

9

Se

p 2

01

8

Ap

r 2

01

8

No

v 2

01

7

Jun

20

17

Jan

20

17

Au

g 2

01

6

Ma

r 2

01

6

Oct

20

15

Ma

y 2

01

5

De

c 2

01

4

Jul

20

14

Fe

b 2

01

4

Se

p 2

01

3

Ap

r 2

01

3

No

v 2

01

2

Jun

20

12

Jan

20

12

Stock Price & Volatility

Right Axis - 3-

month rolling

standard

deviation

Left Axis -

Stock Price

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

24

Ap

r 2

01

5

24

Ju

n 2

01

5

24

Au

g 2

01

5

24

Oct

20

15

24

De

c 2

01

5

24

Fe

b 2

01

6

24

Ap

r 2

01

6

24

Ju

n 2

01

6

24

Au

g 2

01

6

24

Oct

20

16

24

De

c 2

01

6

24

Fe

b 2

01

7

24

Ap

r 2

01

7

24

Ju

n 2

01

7

24

Au

g 2

01

7

24

Oct

20

17

24

De

c 2

01

7

24

Fe

b 2

01

8

Stock Prices & Moving Averages

Stock Price

50-day/7-week

Moving Average

200-day/29-week

Moving Average

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 29 of 32

Page 30: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The Relative Strength Index is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes to

detect whether the stock has reached overbought or oversold levels.

Based on the 14-week Relative Strength Index, the stock is in the overbought territory since 6 Apr 2018.

This Bollinger Band is a plot of two standard deviations (a measure of stock volatility) above and under the stock

price. Based on this technical indicator, the closer the stock price is to the upper band, the more overvalued it is and

the closer it is to the lower band, the more undervalued.

As at 6 Apr 2018, the stock is nearer to the upper band, which is an overbought situation.

-

200.00

400.00

600.00Relative Strength Index

Stock Price

-

20

40

60

80

100

24

Ap

r 2

01

5

24

Ju

n 2

01

5

24

Au

g 2

01

5

24

Oct

20

15

24

De

c 2

01

5

24

Fe

b 2

01

6

24

Ap

r 2

01

6

24

Ju

n 2

01

6

24

Au

g 2

01

6

24

Oct

20

16

24

De

c 2

01

6

24

Fe

b 2

01

7

24

Ap

r 2

01

7

24

Ju

n 2

01

7

24

Au

g 2

01

7

24

Oct

20

17

24

De

c 2

01

7

24

Fe

b 2

01

8

Relative Strength

Index (14 weeks)

Below this RSI

oversold level

Above this RSI

overbought level

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

24

Ap

r 2

01

5

24

Ju

n 2

01

5

24

Au

g 2

01

5

24

Oct

20

15

24

De

c 2

01

5

24

Fe

b 2

01

6

24

Ap

r 2

01

6

24

Ju

n 2

01

6

24

Au

g 2

01

6

24

Oct

20

16

24

De

c 2

01

6

24

Fe

b 2

01

7

24

Ap

r 2

01

7

24

Ju

n 2

01

7

24

Au

g 2

01

7

24

Oct

20

17

24

De

c 2

01

7

24

Fe

b 2

01

8Bollinger Bands

Stock Price

Upper Bollinger

Band

Lower Bollinger

Band

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 30 of 32

Page 31: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

The MACD is a momentum indicator that shows the difference between two moving averages of stock prices, a

longer one for 26 periods and a shorter one for 12 periods. This "difference" is then smoothened out to trigger buy

and sell signals as indicated by the histograms. If the histogram turns positive, it is a bullish signal and if it turns

negative it is a bearish indicator.

As at 20 Oct 2017, the histogram has turned positive, which is a bullish indicator.

-

100.00

200.00

300.00

400.00

500.00

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence

(MACD)Fast EMA

Slow EMA

Stock Price

(40.00)

(20.00)

-

20.00

40.00

60.00

13

Ap

r 2

01

8

16

Ma

r 2

01

8

16

Fe

b 2

01

8

19

Ja

n 2

01

8

22

De

c 2

01

7

24

No

v 2

01

7

27

Oct

20

17

29

Se

p 2

01

7

1 S

ep

20

17

4 A

ug

20

17

7 J

ul

20

17

9 J

un

20

17

12

Ma

y 2

01

7

14

Ap

r 2

01

7

17

Ma

r 2

01

7

17

Fe

b 2

01

7

20

Ja

n 2

01

7

23

De

c 2

01

6

25

No

v 2

01

6

28

Oct

20

16

30

Se

p 2

01

6

2 S

ep

20

16

5 A

ug

20

16

8 J

ul

20

16

10

Ju

n 2

01

6

13

Ma

y 2

01

6

15

Ap

r 2

01

6

Histogram

MACD

Signal

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 31 of 32

Page 32: Name of Company Country of Origin/ Sector Stock Price ... · Engro Corporation Limited is a Fertilizer company engaged in manufacturing and marketing fertilizers. Its portfolio consists

Source of Data

Disclaimer

Terms of Use

Unless this report is posted by ProThinker in social media or the public domain, it is for use by the subscribing entity

only. No portion of this report may be copied or redistributed without the prior written consent of ProThinker.

This report is for information purposes only and should not be considered a solicitation to buy or sell any security.

Neither ProThinker nor any other party guarantees its accuracy or makes warranties regarding results from its

usage.

This is a technical indicator whereby a stock that is trading near its 52-week high is bought and a stock that is trading

near its 52-week low is sold.

Company description, historical financial statements data and price data are from gurufocus.com. Estimates are

from marketscreener.com - Thomson Reuters.

The stock, which is trading at PKR320.53 as at 11 Mar 2019, is nearer to its 52-week low, which is a bearish

indicator.

-

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

400.00

450.00

De

c 2

01

4

Fe

b 2

01

5

Ap

r 2

01

5

Jun

20

15

Au

g 2

01

5

Oct

20

15

De

c 2

01

5

Fe

b 2

01

6

Ap

r 2

01

6

Jun

20

16

Au

g 2

01

6

Oct

20

16

De

c 2

01

6

Fe

b 2

01

7

Ap

r 2

01

7

Jun

20

17

Au

g 2

01

7

Oct

20

17

De

c 2

01

7

Fe

b 2

01

8

Stock Price vs. 52-week high and low

Stock Price

52-week high

52-week low

Stock Report from ProThinker Page 32 of 32