naea 05-14
TRANSCRIPT
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This map outlines the total expenditures that result from a single home sale.
Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale
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KCM Divided into Three Sections
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Existing Home Sales
NAR 4/2014
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100 = Historically Healthy Level
Pending Home Sales
NAR 4/2014
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Bill McBride Calculated Risk
A decline in existing home sales doesn't mean the housing recovery is over. Far from
it! We need to look at the composition of sales (distressed vs. conventional).
The percent of conventional sales are increasing.
That is a positive sign.
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Total Sales Year-Over-Year: 12 Month Sum
% increase or decrease in current 12 months of total sales over the prior 12 months of total sales
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FreddieMac
Housing is stronger today than at any point since the
Great Recession began and hit bottom in 2009.
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50%
16% 13%
Housing Starts House Prices Home Sales
Improvement inHousing sincebottom in 2009
FreddieMac 4/2014
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FreddieMac 4/2014
20%
3%0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Housing Starts Home Sales
Projections for Housing in 2014
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Has your interest in purchasing a home increased over the last year?
Millennial BuyersYes – 59%
Move-up BuyersYes – 45%
Pulte 5/2014
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Americans still aspire to buy second homes and have contributed to the growth of the
market consistently since its bottom in 2009... As the population continues to age, we expect people to continue to use their savings to buy
second homes, thereby contributing to a segment of the mortgage market that will
continue to grow in the years to come.
FannieMae
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30%
24% 24%
14%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds
Best Long Term Investment
Gallup 4/2014
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Gallup 4/2014
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25% 24% 23%21%
7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Real Estate Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Gold Bonds
Best Long Term Investment18-29 year olds
Gallup 4/2014
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30%28%
23%
10%7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
Real Estate Gold Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs Bonds
Best Long Term Investment50-64 year olds
Gallup 4/2014
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Best Long Term InvestmentBy Income Category
28%26%
38%
31%
26%
18%
13%
25%
30%
17%16%
7%7%6%
7%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Less than $30K $30K-$74,999 $75K and over
Real Estate Gold
Stocks/Mutual Funds Savings Accounts/CDs
Bonds
Gallup 4/2014
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PRICES
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“We leave our 2014 projections for home prices (up 5-7% for the year) unchanged.” Morgan Stanley
“Our base case projection for 2014 US home price appreciation is unchanged at 7%.”Barclays
HousingWire 4/2014
Home PricesGoing Forward
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CoreLogic 3/2014
“Home prices nationwide remain 16.9% below their peak, which
was set in April 2006.”
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Prices Compared to Peak w/ Date of Peak
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% of Respondents Reporting Appraisal Problems
34%31% 29%
24%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
2011 2012 2013 2014
Realtors Confidence Index 4/2014
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Appraisal Issues/ProblemsMarch 2014
Realtors Confidence Index 4/2014
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Distressed Properties
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10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Percentage of Distressed Property Sales
35%
14%
21%
NAR 4/2014
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Foreclosure Inventory by State
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Months of Shadow Inventory
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Share of Mortgages with Negative Equity
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RETURN ON INVESTMENT
51.3
34.9
4.3
65.4
Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate
January 2000 – May 2014
MSNMoney.com, Case Shiller
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-24%
-20.8%
-16.8%
-14%-13%
-7.6%
-5%-6.2%
1.8% 0.9%
5%
1.6%
7.3%
5.3%
3.2%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
% -24% -20.8 -16.8 -14% -13% -7.6% -5% -6.2% 1.8% 0.9% 5.0% 1.6% 7.3% 5.3% 3.2%
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 4/2014
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4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 4/2014
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4.0
4.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.3
Dec Jan Feb Mar
Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 4/2014
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Months Inventory of Homes for Sale
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory
NAR 4/2014
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Year-over-Year Change in Prices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2014
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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 4/2014
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3.25
3.5
3.75
4
4.25
4.5
4.75 2013 - 2014 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
Freddie Mac 4/2014
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Mortgage Rate Projections
Analyst Projected Rate 2015 2Q
Fannie Mae 4.9%
Freddie Mac 5.3%
Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.2%
National Assoc of Realtors 5.5%4/2014
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ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
2 Total Economic Impact of a Home Sale http://www.realtor.org/reports/state-by-state-economic-impact-of-real-estate-activity
5,6,9,27, 33,34,35, 36
Existing Home Sales, Pending Home Sales, 12,575 Homes Sell, % Distressed Property, Year-over-Year Inventory, Months Inventory, Homes for Sale,
http://www.realtor.org/
7 Bill McBride Quote http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/04/comments-on-housing-and-existing-home.html
8,28,29, 30Total Sales Year-Over-Year, Foreclosure Inventory, Months Shadow Inventory, Share of Mortgages
http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx#
10,11,12 Freddie Mac Datahttp://www.freddiemac.com/blog/research_and_analysis/20140410_springforward_housingforecast.html
13 Interest in Purchasing - Pulte Homes Surveyhttp://pultegroupinc.com/investors/press-releases/press-release-details/2014/PulteGroup-Home-Index-Survey-Americans-Appetite-To-Buy-New-Homes-Increases-As-View-On-Economy-Trends-More-Positive/default.aspx
14 Fannie Mac Quote http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/datanotes/pdf/housing-insights-040714.pdf
15 – 19, 49 Best Long Term Investment - Gallup Poll Slides http://www.gallup.com/poll/168554/americans-sold-real-estate-best-long-term-investment.aspx
21 Morgan Stanley & Barclays Quoteshttp://www.housingwire.com/articles/29815-wall-street-home-price-appreciation-still-expected-to-hit-7
22, 23, Corelogic Quote, Prices Compared to Peak http://www.corelogic.com/research/hpi/corelogic-hpi-february-2014.pdf
24, 25% Reported Appraisal Problems, Appraisal Issues March 2014
http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/MARCH-2014-RCI.pdf
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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ResourcesSlide Slide Title Link
32 Return on Investmenthttp://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller http://money.msn.com/
37,38 Year-over-Year Change in Price, Case-Shiller HPIhttps://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/83930_cshomeprice-release-0325.pdf?force_download=true
39 30 Year Fixed Mortgage Rates http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
40 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_011314.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/docs/Jan_2014_public_outlook.pdf http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/86783_.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-12-30-illtratatb/forecast-1-2014-us-economic-outlook-12-30-2013.pdf
44,47 Guy Kawasaki & Seth Godin Quote LeadingRE Conference 2014
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
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To provide value, real estate agents must not only provide information but also insights
into that information.
Guy Kawasaki
Silicon Valley Author, Speaker, Investor and Business Advisor
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It not about having the dots.
It’s about connecting the dots!!
Seth Godin Author, Entrepreneur,
Marketer and Public Speaker
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Gallup 4/2014
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