n.a.d.a. official used car guide® company market overview
TRANSCRIPT
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Market Update
November 2006
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Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Q1 200
6
Q2 200
6
Q3 200
6
GDP CPI CPI less Food and Energy
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Quarterly GDP and CPI
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1
'00
Q2
'00
Q3
'00
Q4
'00
Q1
'01
Q2
'01
Q3
'01
Q4
'01
Q1
'02
Q2
'02
Q3
'02
Q4
'02
Q1
'03
Q2
'03
Q3
'03
Q4
'03
Q1
'04
Q2
'04
Q3
'04
Q4
'04
Q1
'05
Q2
'05
Q3
'05
Q4
'05
Q1
'06
Q2
'06
Q3
'06
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
GDP CPI CPI less Food and Energy
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Prime Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
12/1/
2000
12/1/
2001
12/1/
2002
12/1/
2003
12/1/
2004
12/1/
2005
Curre
nt
8.25%
Source: Federal Reserve Board
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Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers
$12.25
$12.75
$13.25
$13.75
$14.25
$14.75
$15.25
$15.75
$16.25
$16.75
$17.25
$17.75
10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006
10/06-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
Average Hourly 1 month % change
$16.91
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Changes in Non-Farm Payroll Employment
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006
10/06
92,000
(000’s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Unemployment Rate
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006
10/06
4.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Average Unemployment andNew Light Vehicle Sales
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Octobe
r 200
6
14,000
16,000
18,000
Unemployment NLVS
(000’s)NADA’s estimate for
CY 2006
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Automotive News, and NADA Industry Analysis
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Consumer Price Index andY-O-Y Wage Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sept
embe
r 200
6
CPI Wage Growth*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - *Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers
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Retail Gasoline and On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices
$0.70
$1.10
$1.50
$1.90
$2.30
$2.70
$3.10
$3.50
12/25
/00
12/31
/01
12/30
/02
12/29
/03
12/27
/04
*Sep
t. 5,
2005
12/26
/05
Last
Week
Novem
ber 6
, 200
6
Gas Diesel
Gas $2.20Diesel $2.506
*Price of gas peaked at $3.069
Source: Energy Information Administration Gas - regular grade, price per gallon (includes all taxes)
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New VehicleMarket
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What’s New on Wheels
Salzburg, Austria—Emily Post herself is not as refined as Lexus’s all-new, fourth-generation LS 460, in showrooms this month.
The leather steering wheel is buffed for six hours, and the headlights—inspired by Baccarat stemware—evoke lead crystal. Then there’s the massaging/reclining rear seat, 19-speaker Mark Levinson audio, power sunshades, and up to 11 airbags. A parking-guidance system even steers the car into place, using a rear camera and sonar.
Under the hood, a 380-hp V8—with 30 percent more gusto than its predecessor—is mated to the world’s first eight-speed automatic. Along with base and long-wheelbase models, a hybrid arrives next spring.
Price: $70,000 (est.). Mileage: 19 city/ 27 highway. Competition: Audi A8, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class.
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What’s New on Wheels
Washington, D.C.—Hipper inside and out, Saturn’s new Aura is built on the same platform as the Saab 9-3. The result: Euro-like ride and handling. Two trim levels, with choice of V6 engines. Options: heated seats/mirrors, steering-wheel audio controls, and remote-start system.
Price: $20,000. Mileage: 20 city/29 highway. Competition: Honda Accord, Hyundai Sonata, Nissan Altima, Toyota Camry.
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Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales
1,025
1,225
1,425
1,625
1,825
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct.
2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006
(000’s) 1.8m - all-time high
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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Y-O-Y Volume % ChangeOctober 2006 YTD
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Truck-based SUVs
Pickups
MiniVans/Vans
Luxury Cars
Middle Cars
Large Cars
Small Cars
CUVs
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
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Y-O-Y Market Share %October 2006 YTD
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Middle Cars
Pickups
Small Cars
CUVs
Truck-based SUVs
MiniVans/Vans
Luxury Cars
Large Cars
2006
2005
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
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New Light Vehicle SalesOctober 2006 YTD
Car and truck sales -2.9% versus same time period 2005
Trucks represented 50.5% of total sales versus 53.0% same time period 2005
Toyota Division and Honda Division gained both car and truck market share
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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New Light Vehicle SalesOctober 2006 YTD
Top five car market share gainers – Toyota Division, Ford Division, Lexus, Volkswagen Division, and Scion
Top five truck market share gainers –Toyota Division, Honda Division, Mercedes-Benz, Pontiac, and Kia
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle SalesOctober
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
October 2006 October 2005
Cars
Trucks
Total
Cars -3.5%Trucks 16.3%Total 6.1%
(000’s)
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle SalesOctober YTD
0
3,750
7,500
11,250
15,000
October 2006 YTD October 2005 YTD
Cars
Trucks
Total
Cars 2.2%Trucks -7.4%Total -2.9%
(000’s)
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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Top Ten Selling Makes (New)October 2006 YTD
0
600
1200
1800
2400 Ford Division
Chevrolet
Toyota Division
Honda Division
Dodge
Nissan Division
Chrysler Division
Hyundai Division
GMC
Jeep
(000’s)
73.5% of total sales
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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Top Ten Selling Models (New)October 2006 YTD
0
200
400
600
800 F-Series PU
Silverado PU
Camry
Ram PU
Accord
Civic
Impala
Corolla
Altima
Cobalt
(000’s)
23.8% of total sales
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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Total New Light Vehicle Sales
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 NADA's est.2006
Source: Automotive News Data Center
(000’s)17.4m – all-time high
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New Light Vehicle SalesCars v. Trucks
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October2006 YTD
Cars
Trucks
Trucks Outsell Cars(000’s)
Source: Automotive News Data Center
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Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (New)
$28,123
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August2006
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
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Average Finance Rate and Loan Lengthat Auto Finance Companies
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
00 Q
4
01 Q
4
02 Q
4
03 Q
4
04 Q
4
05 Q
4Se
ptem
ber 2
006
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
Average Finance Rate Average Loan Length
months
Source: NADA Industry Analysis and Federal Reserve Board
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Used VehicleMarket
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Y-O-Y Used Vehicles Sold byFranchised and Independent Dealers
1,300
1,925
2,550
3,175
3,800
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct.
2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006
Source: CNW Marketing
(000’s)
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Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (Used)
$15,514
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
$16,000
$17,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August2006
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
November 2006 YTD- 1 Year Old Vehicles
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Median -11.02% YTD, CY 2005 -7.94%
Eastern Edition
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
November 2006 YTD - 2 Year Old Vehicles
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Median -11.30% YTD, CY 2005 -7.69%
Eastern Edition
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
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N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
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Certified Used Vehicle SalesSeptember 2006 YTD
0
62,500
125,000
187,500
250,000
Chevrolet Toyota Division Honda Division Ford Division BMW Pontiac Dodge Nissan Division Mercedes-Benz GMC Lexus Buick Cadillac Chrysler Division Volkswagen Division Acura Volvo Jeep Lincoln - Mercury Audi Saturn Jaguar Saab Land Rover Porsche Mazda* Oldsmobile Subaru* Infiniti Mitsubishi Hummer Suzuki Hyundai*
Total Sales – 1,256,559
Source: Automotive News Data Center *Estimate
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Used Vehicles Sold by Franchised New-Car Dealers
21.3
6,000
10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Wholesaled
Retailed
Total
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
(000’s)
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Franchised New-Car Dealer Source of Used Vehicle Retailed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1995 2005
Trade-In
Auction
Street
Other
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
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Light Vehicle SalesUsed / New
44.1
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October2006YTD
FranchisedDealers
IndependentDealers
PrivateIndividuals
Total Used
New Vehicles
Source: CNW Marketing
(000’s)
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Data Sources
www.autoexecmag.comwww.autonews.comwww.bea.govwww.bls.govwww.cnwmr.comwww.eia.doe.govwww.federalreserve.govwww.nada.orgwww.nada.com/b2bwww.wardsauto.com