n.a.d.a. official used car guide® company market overview
TRANSCRIPT
Market Update
November 2006
Gross Domestic Product and Consumer Price Index
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Q1 200
6
Q2 200
6
Q3 200
6
GDP CPI CPI less Food and Energy
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Quarterly GDP and CPI
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
Q1
'00
Q2
'00
Q3
'00
Q4
'00
Q1
'01
Q2
'01
Q3
'01
Q4
'01
Q1
'02
Q2
'02
Q3
'02
Q4
'02
Q1
'03
Q2
'03
Q3
'03
Q4
'03
Q1
'04
Q2
'04
Q3
'04
Q4
'04
Q1
'05
Q2
'05
Q3
'05
Q4
'05
Q1
'06
Q2
'06
Q3
'06
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
GDP CPI CPI less Food and Energy
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Bureau of Labor Statistics
Prime Rate
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
12/1/
2000
12/1/
2001
12/1/
2002
12/1/
2003
12/1/
2004
12/1/
2005
Curre
nt
8.25%
Source: Federal Reserve Board
Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers
$12.25
$12.75
$13.25
$13.75
$14.25
$14.75
$15.25
$15.75
$16.25
$16.75
$17.25
$17.75
10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006
10/06-0.10%
0.00%
0.10%
0.20%
0.30%
0.40%
0.50%
0.60%
0.70%
Average Hourly 1 month % change
$16.91
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Changes in Non-Farm Payroll Employment
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006
10/06
92,000
(000’s)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment Rate
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
10/00 10/01 10/02 10/03 10/04 10/05 September2006
10/06
4.4%
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Average Unemployment andNew Light Vehicle Sales
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
5.0%
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Octobe
r 200
6
14,000
16,000
18,000
Unemployment NLVS
(000’s)NADA’s estimate for
CY 2006
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Automotive News, and NADA Industry Analysis
Consumer Price Index andY-O-Y Wage Growth
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sept
embe
r 200
6
CPI Wage Growth*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics - *Average Hourly Earnings of Production Workers
Retail Gasoline and On-Highway Diesel Fuel Prices
$0.70
$1.10
$1.50
$1.90
$2.30
$2.70
$3.10
$3.50
12/25
/00
12/31
/01
12/30
/02
12/29
/03
12/27
/04
*Sep
t. 5,
2005
12/26
/05
Last
Week
Novem
ber 6
, 200
6
Gas Diesel
Gas $2.20Diesel $2.506
*Price of gas peaked at $3.069
Source: Energy Information Administration Gas - regular grade, price per gallon (includes all taxes)
New VehicleMarket
What’s New on Wheels
Salzburg, Austria—Emily Post herself is not as refined as Lexus’s all-new, fourth-generation LS 460, in showrooms this month.
The leather steering wheel is buffed for six hours, and the headlights—inspired by Baccarat stemware—evoke lead crystal. Then there’s the massaging/reclining rear seat, 19-speaker Mark Levinson audio, power sunshades, and up to 11 airbags. A parking-guidance system even steers the car into place, using a rear camera and sonar.
Under the hood, a 380-hp V8—with 30 percent more gusto than its predecessor—is mated to the world’s first eight-speed automatic. Along with base and long-wheelbase models, a hybrid arrives next spring.
Price: $70,000 (est.). Mileage: 19 city/ 27 highway. Competition: Audi A8, BMW 7 Series, Mercedes S-Class.
What’s New on Wheels
Washington, D.C.—Hipper inside and out, Saturn’s new Aura is built on the same platform as the Saab 9-3. The result: Euro-like ride and handling. Two trim levels, with choice of V6 engines. Options: heated seats/mirrors, steering-wheel audio controls, and remote-start system.
Price: $20,000. Mileage: 20 city/29 highway. Competition: Honda Accord, Hyundai Sonata, Nissan Altima, Toyota Camry.
Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle Sales
1,025
1,225
1,425
1,625
1,825
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct.
2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006
(000’s) 1.8m - all-time high
Source: Automotive News Data Center
Y-O-Y Volume % ChangeOctober 2006 YTD
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
Truck-based SUVs
Pickups
MiniVans/Vans
Luxury Cars
Middle Cars
Large Cars
Small Cars
CUVs
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
Y-O-Y Market Share %October 2006 YTD
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Middle Cars
Pickups
Small Cars
CUVs
Truck-based SUVs
MiniVans/Vans
Luxury Cars
Large Cars
2006
2005
Source: Ward’s Automotive Reports
New Light Vehicle SalesOctober 2006 YTD
Car and truck sales -2.9% versus same time period 2005
Trucks represented 50.5% of total sales versus 53.0% same time period 2005
Toyota Division and Honda Division gained both car and truck market share
Source: Automotive News Data Center
New Light Vehicle SalesOctober 2006 YTD
Top five car market share gainers – Toyota Division, Ford Division, Lexus, Volkswagen Division, and Scion
Top five truck market share gainers –Toyota Division, Honda Division, Mercedes-Benz, Pontiac, and Kia
Source: Automotive News Data Center
Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle SalesOctober
0
400
800
1,200
1,600
October 2006 October 2005
Cars
Trucks
Total
Cars -3.5%Trucks 16.3%Total 6.1%
(000’s)
Source: Automotive News Data Center
Y-O-Y New Light Vehicle SalesOctober YTD
0
3,750
7,500
11,250
15,000
October 2006 YTD October 2005 YTD
Cars
Trucks
Total
Cars 2.2%Trucks -7.4%Total -2.9%
(000’s)
Source: Automotive News Data Center
Top Ten Selling Makes (New)October 2006 YTD
0
600
1200
1800
2400 Ford Division
Chevrolet
Toyota Division
Honda Division
Dodge
Nissan Division
Chrysler Division
Hyundai Division
GMC
Jeep
(000’s)
73.5% of total sales
Source: Automotive News Data Center
Top Ten Selling Models (New)October 2006 YTD
0
200
400
600
800 F-Series PU
Silverado PU
Camry
Ram PU
Accord
Civic
Impala
Corolla
Altima
Cobalt
(000’s)
23.8% of total sales
Source: Automotive News Data Center
Total New Light Vehicle Sales
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 NADA's est.2006
Source: Automotive News Data Center
(000’s)17.4m – all-time high
New Light Vehicle SalesCars v. Trucks
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October2006 YTD
Cars
Trucks
Trucks Outsell Cars(000’s)
Source: Automotive News Data Center
Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (New)
$28,123
$24,000
$26,000
$28,000
$30,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August2006
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
Average Finance Rate and Loan Lengthat Auto Finance Companies
2.5%
3.5%
4.5%
5.5%
6.5%
7.5%
8.5%
00 Q
4
01 Q
4
02 Q
4
03 Q
4
04 Q
4
05 Q
4Se
ptem
ber 2
006
48
51
54
57
60
63
66
Average Finance Rate Average Loan Length
months
Source: NADA Industry Analysis and Federal Reserve Board
Used VehicleMarket
Y-O-Y Used Vehicles Sold byFranchised and Independent Dealers
1,300
1,925
2,550
3,175
3,800
Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct.
2004 - 2005 2005 - 2006
Source: CNW Marketing
(000’s)
Franchised Dealer Light Vehicle Average Selling Price (Used)
$15,514
$13,000
$14,000
$15,000
$16,000
$17,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 August2006
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
November 2006 YTD- 1 Year Old Vehicles
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Median -11.02% YTD, CY 2005 -7.94%
Eastern Edition
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
1 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
November 2006 YTD - 2 Year Old Vehicles
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Median -11.30% YTD, CY 2005 -7.69%
Eastern Edition
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2005
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Focus Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2004
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
N.A.D.A. Official Used Car GuideTrade-In Value % Decline
2 Year Old Vehicles in Calendar Year 2003
-35%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0% Cavalier Silverado 1500 PU Grand Caravan Ram 1500 PU Escort Taurus Expedition Explorer F150 PU Ranger Grand Cherokee Camry Accord 4Runner LeSabre Corolla Mustang
Eastern Edition
Certified Used Vehicle SalesSeptember 2006 YTD
0
62,500
125,000
187,500
250,000
Chevrolet Toyota Division Honda Division Ford Division BMW Pontiac Dodge Nissan Division Mercedes-Benz GMC Lexus Buick Cadillac Chrysler Division Volkswagen Division Acura Volvo Jeep Lincoln - Mercury Audi Saturn Jaguar Saab Land Rover Porsche Mazda* Oldsmobile Subaru* Infiniti Mitsubishi Hummer Suzuki Hyundai*
Total Sales – 1,256,559
Source: Automotive News Data Center *Estimate
Used Vehicles Sold by Franchised New-Car Dealers
21.3
6,000
10,000
14,000
18,000
22,000
26,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Wholesaled
Retailed
Total
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
(000’s)
Franchised New-Car Dealer Source of Used Vehicle Retailed
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
1995 2005
Trade-In
Auction
Street
Other
Source: NADA Industry Analysis
Light Vehicle SalesUsed / New
44.1
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 October2006YTD
FranchisedDealers
IndependentDealers
PrivateIndividuals
Total Used
New Vehicles
Source: CNW Marketing
(000’s)
Data Sources
www.autoexecmag.comwww.autonews.comwww.bea.govwww.bls.govwww.cnwmr.comwww.eia.doe.govwww.federalreserve.govwww.nada.orgwww.nada.com/b2bwww.wardsauto.com
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