n84 unclassified rear admiral dave titley, ph.d. oceanographer of the navy / director task force...
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Rear Admiral Dave Titley, Ph.D.Oceanographer of the Navy / Director Task Force Climate Change
October 15, 2009
This Presentation is Unclassified
Task Force Climate Change Update and Science & Technology Needs
Consortium for Ocean Leadership
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Overview
• Task Force Climate Change
• Navy Arctic Roadmap
• What We Know
• Adapting to Climate Change
• Science & Technology Needs
• Way Ahead
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Task Force Climate Change
• Established by Chief of Naval Operations (CNO)– To identify Navy action regarding climate change
– Near-term focus: Arctic
• Charter– Develop a science-based timeline for Navy action
– Recommend Navy policy, strategy, investment, & outreach
• Service, interagency, & scientific community support– Navy & Coast Guard Staffs, Office of Naval Research, Arctic Submarine Lab
– NOAA, NASA, Departments of State, Commerce, Homeland Security
– National Academies, leading climate science universities (APL-UW, WHOI), Naval War College, National Defense University, Naval Postgraduate School
Coordinate & communicate Navy action regarding the Arctic & climate change
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Task Force Climate ChangeFocus Areas
U.S. Navy Photo
Readiness & Capability
Assessment & Prediction
Po
licy,
Str
ateg
y, P
lan
s
Inve
stm
ents
Op
erat
ion
s &
Tra
inin
g
Co
mm
s &
Ou
trea
ch
5 Focus Areas
TFCCObjectives
Environmental assessment & prediction underpin all TFCC focus areas
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Navy Arctic RoadmapKey Themes
U.S. Navy Photo
Improved understandingRegarding the current & predicted environment
Cooperative partnershipsWith interagency and international stakeholders
Increased experienceThrough exercises & operations
UNCLOS advocacyProviding a governance framework that supportssecurity & stabilityInformed investments
Providing the right capabilityat the right time & cost
Navy POM
Navy recognized as a valued joint, interagency, & international partner in the Arctic
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What We Know
• Warming Earth is causing:– Sea level rise
– Changing ocean chemistry, precipitation patterns,
hydrological & ecological systems
– Decreasing snow & ice extent
• Climate change projections are uncertain & variable– Global temperature & precipitation patterns
well-modeled to 100 yrs
– Ice, tropical storm, sea-level rise, &
ocean acidity NOT well-modeled
• Climate change will impact the Navy – Infrastructure, missions, operating areas
IPCC projections are insufficient for Navy force structure & installation investment decisions over the next 30-50 years
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Adapting to Climate Change
Decision Superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary
BattlespaceBattlespace On DemandOn DemandLinking Forecasts to DecisionsLinking Forecasts to Decisions
Decision Superiority: Making better decisions faster than the adversary
BattlespaceBattlespace On DemandOn DemandLinking Forecasts to DecisionsLinking Forecasts to Decisions
Naval Oceanography’s operational concept provides framework for developing climate change adaptation strategies
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Science & Technology Needs
Recommend National Academies climate modeling study address these needs
ImproveModel Physics
Increase Model Resolution
– Adaptive, higher-density observation net– Regional scale spatial resolution– Decadal scale temporal resolution
Address Uncertainties
– Quantify uncertainty & confidence levels– Provide probability distribution functions in output – Represent variability across multiple temporal &
spatial scales – Reduce uncertainty in ice, sea level rise, water systems/precipitation, & tropical storms
– Ice sheet dynamics & contribution to sea level rise– Impact of ocean acidification on marine ecosystems– Feedback processes & geo-engineering – Factors causing abrupt climate change
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National Climate Consortium
Current capabilities (IPCC) are lacking• Science & Technology needs are national, not TFCC, needs• Identified by the National Academy of Science and the Office of Science & Technology Policy
Today’s National efforts are fractured & stove-piped• Multiple agencies working on the same problem• Observation systems, climate models, & decision support
A way ahead• Synchronize efforts across the US agencies• Leverage prior investments of each• Capitalize on the strengths of individual organizations• Unify climate & operational prediction capabilities when possible
To develop & implement a National climate observation & modeling strategy