multifamily month in review: new york city | december 2015 · the report provides a monthly...

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MultifaMily Month in Review:new yoRk City | deCeMbeR 2015

Released February 2016 | By Ariel Property Advisors

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Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc | 2

about the RepoRt | Content

ariel property advisors is pleased to present its Multifamily Month in Review: new york City.

the report provides a monthly overview of market activity, benchmark transactions, revenue

and expense trends, and current events that affect the multifamily real estate market.

the Multifamily Month in Review is distributed to our clients on a monthly basis. past versions

of the Multifamily Month in Review can be found at arielpa.nyc/investor-relations/research-

reports

table of Contents

Multifamily Month in Review: new york City 3Multifamily Market performance by sub-Market 4transaction & dollar volume by Quartertrailing 6-Month Moving average 5pricing indicators & distributions 6about ariel property advisors 7

SAlES TEAm:

Shimon Shkury212.544.9500 ext. 11

[email protected]

Victor Sozio212.544.9500 ext. [email protected]

Michael A. Tortorici212.544.9500 ext. 13

[email protected]

ANAlYST TEAm:

Daniel Novick212.544.9500 ext. [email protected]

Samuel Stuart212.544.9500 ext. [email protected]

COmPIlEd BY:

Multifamily Month in Review | new york City

3 | Ariel Property Advisors | 122 East 42nd Street, Suite 1015 - New York NY 10168 | 212.544.9500 | arielpa.nyc

lEgENd:

manhattan is defined as below 96th Street on the east side and below 110th Street on the west side

MetRiCsdeC

2015% Change

vs. nov 2015nov 2015

% Change vs. deC 2014

deC 2014

Transaction Vol 60 18% 51 -9% 66

Building Vol 115 53% 75 -1% 116

Dollar Vol $6,550,737,407 640% $885,480,753 312% $1,591,843,797

Total Units 14,898 596% 2,140 247% 4,290

ManhattanNorthern Manhattan

The BronxBrooklyn

Queens

dOllAR VOlumE COmPARISON

BY lOCATION ChART

BuIldINg VOlumE COmPARISON

BY lOCATION ChART

ManhattanNorthern ManhattanThe BronxBrooklynQueens

ManhattanNorthern ManhattanThe BronxBrooklynQueens

89+2+3+2+4+x19+20+31+16+14+x

89%2%3%2%4%

19%20%31%16%14%

new

yo

rk C

ityMultifaMily Month in Review: new yoRk City | deCeMbeR 2015

Stuy-Town Sale Drives December Multifamily Sales, Capping Off Strong Year

Punctuating a strong finish to 2015, december multifamily figures experienced massive year over year gains in dollar volume, due in large part to the bellwether sale of Stuyves-ant Town & Peter Cooper Village. After excluding this sale, city-wide dollar volume would be down roughly 31 percent compared to december of 2014.

For the month, New York City saw 60 transactions comprised of 115 buildings totaling $6.551 billion in gross consideration. This represents a 312% increase in dollar volume, a 1% decrease in building volume and a 9% decrease in transaction volume compared to November 2015, which saw 66 transactions comprised of 116 buildings totaling $1.592 billion in gross consideration.

Blackstone’s $5.45 billion purchase of Stuyvesant Town & Peter Cooper Village, one of the largest multifamily transactions ever recorded, accounted for roughly 83 percent of the entire city’s total dollar volume for december. The complex’s sale helped boost manhat-tan’s dollar volume 452% year-over-year. On the upper West Side, Stonehenge manage-ment picked up a 174-unit elevatored building located at 210 West 70th Street for $133 million, or $760 per square foot.

Queens had a tremendous december as the borough saw four multifamily deals close north of $20 million. The largest deal took place in Flushing, where Treetop development purchased a large portfolio of 608 units – almost all of which are rent stabilized – for $138.8 million, or $261 per square foot. New management reportedly plans to spend about $10 million on improvements to the properties. In Jackson heights, a 78,378 square foot elevatored building located at 35-33 83rd Street sold for $25.5 million, or $325 per square foot. The building had not traded hands in more than 40 years.

The Bronx had a healthy month as the borough saw 36 buildings trade across 14 transac-tions totaling $178.54 million in gross consideration. The Related Companies capped off an aggressive 2015 buying spree throughout the Bronx with the purchase of a 20-build-ing portfolio for $112.5 million – the year’s priciest Bronx transaction. The properties are spread across several neighborhoods in the North, West and South Bronx.

Northern manhattan finished the year with a strong december as the submarket saw 10 transactions consisting of 23 buildings totaling $136.995 million in gross consideration – a 37% increase in dollar volume from a year ago. Rhodium Capital Advisors picked up a 13-building portfolio spread across harlem and Washington heights for $98 million, or $394 per square foot. The portfolio spans 248,700 square feet and contains a total of 361 rental units and 17 retail stores.

Brooklyn had a relatively quiet month, experiencing year over year declines in transac-tion, building and dollar volume. In Williamsburg, 119-123 Kent Avenue, 3 contiguous mixed-use buildings, sold for a combined $15.85 million, which equates to over $1,000 per square foot—a price that largely reflects the retail portion. New management plans to use roughly 5,700 square feet of air rights to expand the retail and attract a high-profile tenant. down in Prospect heights, Novel Property Ventures picked up a 55-unit rental building for $23.5 million, or $450 per square foot.

For the six months ended in december 2015 (Page 5), the average monthly transaction volume decreased to 58 transactions per month. The average monthly dollar volume increased significantly to $1.991 billion.

dECEmBER 2015 SNAPShOT

Dollar Volume

TransactionVolume

Building Volume

$6.55billion

60 115312% increase

compared toDecember 2014

9% decreasecompared to

December 2014

8% decreasecompared to

December 2014


lEgENd

dOllAR VOlumE COmPARISON gRAPh

BuIldINg VOlumE COmPARISON gRAPh

MultifaMily MaRket peRfoRManCe by sub-MaRket

MetRiCsdeC2015

% Change vs. nov2015

nov2015

% Change vs. deC 2014

deC2014

Transaction Vol 15 15% 13 -25% 20

Building Vol 22 0% 22 -21% 28

Dollar Vol $5,890,676,785 947% $562,434,253 452% $1,067,301,295

Total Units 11,811 1720% 649 705% 1,467

Transaction Vol 10 100% 5 11% 9

Building Vol 23 130% 10 53% 15

Dollar Vol $136,995,124 110% $65,212,500 37% $100,325,000

Total Units 507 80% 281 9% 465


Building Vol 36 140% 15 20% 30

Dollar Vol $178,540,498 189% $61,759,000 39% $128,010,000

Total Units 1,170 170% 434 5% 1,117

Transaction Vol 13 -7% 14 -38% 21

Building Vol 18 -22% 23 -53% 38

Dollar Vol $113,150,000 -19% $139,500,000 -59% $276,757,502

Total Units 430 -17% 516 -62% 1,144


Building Vol 16 220% 5 220% 5

Dollar Vol $231,375,000 309% $56,575,000 1090% $19,450,000

Total Units 980 277% 260 910% 97

Man

hat

tan

n. M

anh

atta

nt

he

bro

nx

bro

okl

ynQ

uee

ns

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

$1b

$450m

$400m

$350m

$300m

$250m

$200m

$150m

$100m

$50m

$0Dec‘15 Nov ‘15 Dec‘14

Manhattan

Northern Manhattan

The Bronx

Brooklyn

Queens

Dec‘15 Nov ‘15 Dec‘14

$5b



tRansaCtion & dollaR voluMe by QuaRteR | tRailing 6-Month Moving aveRage

$2b 85

$1.5b 80

$1.4b 75

$1.3b 70

$1.2b 65

$1.1b 60

$1b 55

$950mm 50

$900mm 45

$850mm 40

$800mm 35

$750mm 30

the tRailing 6-Month Moving aveRage

lEgENd: Transaction Volume | dollar Volume

6 mONThSENdEd

AVg.dOllAR VOl.

AVg.TRANSACTION VOl.

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2014 Dec $1,287,068,288 68

2015 Jan $1,260,462,423 66

Feb $1,357,954,941 68

Mar $1,333,980,966 70

Apr $1,200,676,182 70

May $1,290,527,333 73

Jun $1,181,037,917 74

Jul $1,242,256,498 75

Aug $1,169,263,522 72

Sep $1,139,226,877 67

Oct $1,098,854,972 64

Nov $1,055,453,697 60

Dec $1,991,425,381 58

$6.5b 110

$2b 90

$1.5b 70

$1b 50

$500mm 30

MultifaMily tRansaCtion tiMeline

lEgENd: Transaction Volume | dollar Volume

Q3 2014 Q4 2014 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015

Trans Vol: 215 191 229 216 185 164Dollar

Vol: $3.66b $4.06b $3.94b $3.14b $3.69b $8.25b

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec


34+62+4+A93+7+0+A

25+27+48+A

tran

sactio

n s

um

mar

yb

y tr

ansa

ctio

n v

olu

me

by

do

llar

vo

lum

e

24+54+22+A12+39+49+A18+48+34+A62+34+4+A58+31+11+A54+38+8+A75+16+9+A

Jun 2015 - deC 2015 tRailing nuMbeRs Jun 2014 - deCt 2014 tRailing nuMbeRs

Location /Criteria

Total Transactions

Total Buildings

Traded

Total Dollar

Value Traded

Median Price

Total Units

Traded

Median Units /

Transaction

Total Transactions

Total Buildings

Traded

Total Dollar

Value Traded

Median Price

Total Units

Traded

Median Units /

Transaction

Manhattan 85 159 $8,415,203,081 $15,400,000 15,534 20 86 122 $4,546,432,295 $13,325,000 9,627 24

N. Manhattan 55 118 $888,719,921 $10,000,000 3,184 40 76 159 $893,713,143 $9,075,000 3,978 44

Bronx 75 145 $837,869,784 $5,300,000 5,566 37 96 161 $725,206,854 $3,900,000 6,211 37

Brooklyn 101 175 $1,252,997,877 $6,186,990 3,817 23 116 192 $1,077,312,709 $4,750,000 4,090 20

Queens 33 49 $553,761,625 $4,900,000 2,255 23 32 60 $479,744,729 $4,300,000 2,308 19

Summary 349 646 $11,948,552,288 $8,200,000 30,356 25 406 694 $7,722,409,730 $6,500,000 26,214 27

tRailing six Month peRfoRManCe: deal distRibution by tRansaCtion Count and dollaR voluMe

lEgENd: $20mm+ | $5-20mm | $1-5mm

pRiCing indiCatoRs & distRibutions

Manhattan n. Manhattan bRonx bRooklyn Queens

34% 24% 12% 18% 25%

62% 54% 39% 48% 27%

4% 22% 49% 34% 48%

Manhattan n. Manhattan bRonx bRooklyn Queens

93% 62% 58% 54% 75%

7% 34% 31% 38% 16%

0% 4% 11% 8% 9%

pri

cin

g in

dic

ato

rs

Location /Criteria

Avg. $/Unit Avg. $/SF Avg. Cap Rate Avg. GRM Avg. $/Unit Avg. $/SF Avg. Cap Rate Avg. GRM

Manhattan $850,876 $966 3.61% 20.57 $676,647 $906 3.75% 18.81

N. Manhattan $281,275 $354 4.08% 14.91 $242,569 $272 4.41% 13.37

Bronx $145,810 $172 5.37% 10.21 $109,980 $125 5.80% 8.60

Brooklyn $331,830 $384 4.59% 15.82 $284,063 $326 4.92% 14.51

Queens $239,236 $267 4.32% 14.86 $192,584 $247 5.49% 10.72



about aRiel pRopeRty advisoRs

exClusive MaRket RepoRts asset evaluations

investMent sales, investMent ReseaRCh & Capital seRviCes Quality bRokeRage seRviCes

Ariel Property Advisors is a commercial real estate services and advisory company located in New York City.

Our company is unique to the industry in that it is structured like an investment bank, with separate divisions for investment sales, capital services and research. This strategic approach to commercial brokerage services allows our professionals to deploy greater resources and provide consistent, seamless execution to every transaction.

We cover all major commercial asset types throughout the New York metropolitan area, but maintain a very sharp focus on multifamily, mixed-use, development, commercial and industrial properties.

From consultation through closing, our professionals are dedicated to achieving optimal results for our clients. Combining the insights of veteran brokers with the latest real estate market intelligence, we find solutions that meet the specific needs of both the client and the asset.

Cultivating long-lasting relationships with the real estate community is essential to the success of both our firm and our cli-ents, so we encourage all market participants to use our company as a resource.

Contact us today for Asset Evaluations, listing information, financing opportunities or our latest market reports.

INVESmENT SAlES

Shimon Shkury ext. 11 Victor Sozio ext. 12 michael A. Tortorici ext. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Randy modell ext. 17 Jonathan Berman ext. 20 Scot hirschfield ext. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

howard Raber ext. 23 daniel Wechsler ext. 44 mark Spinelli ext. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

daniel Tropp ext. 26 Jesse deutch ext. 18 Jason gold ext. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

matthew gillis ext. 42 marko Agbaba ext. 32 Joshua Berkowitz ext. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Nathan Singer ext. 48 Jesse greshin ext. 5272 Joshua Kwilecki ext. [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

INVESmENT RESEARCh

Ivan Petrovic Aryeh Orlofsky daniel [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

david Baruch Brett Campbell dusan [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Sam Stuart Spencer [email protected] [email protected]

The information contained herein has either been given to us by the owner of the property or obtained from sources that we deem reliable. We have no reason to doubt its accuracy but we do not guarantee the accuracy of any information provided herein. As an example, all zoning information, buildable footage estimates and indicated uses must be independently verified. Vacancy factors used herein are an arbitrary percentage used only as an example, and does not necessarily relate to actual vacancy, if any. The value of this prospective investment is dependent upon these estimates and assumptions made above, as well as the investment income, the tax bracket, and other factors which your tax advisor and/or legal counsel should evaluate. The prospective buyer should care-fully verify each item of income, and all other information contained herein. february 19, 2016 1:51 pM

OuR mEThOdOlOgY

The multifamily transactions included in the analysis occurred at a mini-

mum sales price of $1 million, with a minimum gross area of 5,000 square

feet and with a minimum of 10 units. Our estimated sales statistics reflect

all data available on public records and through other sources we deem

reliable.

TYPES OF TRANSACTIONS CONSIdEREd:

Transactions in which there was a transfer of ownership and deed docu-

ment recorded on ACRIS were considered. data is collected form public

sources and other sources we deem reliable.

lOCATION dEFINITIONS:manhattan - South of East 96th Street and South of West 110th StreetNorthern manhattan - North of East 96th Street, North of West 110th StreetThe Bronx - Bronx BoroughBrooklyn - Brooklyn BoroughQueens - Queens Borough

Whether you are considering selling your building or you just want to know the current market value of your property, we are available to provide you with a complimentary asset evaluation. Produced by the joint efforts of our investment sales and investment research teams, an Asset Evaluation will provide you with a thorough analysis of your investment property, and will detail our future marketing efforts on your behalf.

COmPlImENTARY ASSET EVAluATIONPlease call us at 212.544.9500 to request an Asset Evaluation

COmPIlEd BY:

If you would like to use or quote this report on the web, we ask that you quote the source as “multifamily month In Review: New York City by Ariel Property Advisors” and link report from our website page (http://arielpa.nyc/research/reports/)

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