Rabat/New York, May 2017

Khalid Abu Ismail

Economic Development and Integration Division

Multidimensional Poverty in Arab Countries:

Proposed New Regional MPI and Policy Implications

Page 2

Outline

1- Arab MPI and how it differs from the Global MPI

2- Main Results

3- Conclusions and Policy Considerations

Global MPI as a basis

●The Global MPI chooses 3 main dimensions of poverty Education, Health, and Living standards – with 10 indicators (Alkire and Santos, 2014).

●Monitors household deprivation in more than 100 countries and is regularly published by the Human Development Report of UNDP.

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MPI Dimensions, Indicators and Weights Indicator Global MPI Weight

Edu

cati

on

Years of Schooling No household member aged 10 years or older has completed five years of schooling. (1/6)

School Attendance Any school-aged child is not attending school up to the age at which

he/she would complete class 8. (1/6)

He

alth

Child Mortality Any child death reported by eligible mothers during the five-year period preceding the

survey, irrespective of the age of the child. (1/6)

Child Nutrition Any adult under 70 years of age, or any child for whom there is nutritional information is

undernourished in terms of weight for age ( 1/6)

Livi

ng

Co

nd

itio

ns

Electricity Household has no electricity (1/18) Sanitation The household’s sanitation facility is not improved (according to MDG guidelines), or it is

improved but shared with other households (1/18)

Water The household does not have access to improved drinking water (according to MDG

guidelines) or safe drinking water is at least a 30-minute walk from home, roundtrip. (1/18)

Floor/Roof The household has a dirt, sand, dung or ‘other’ (unspecified) type of floor. (1/18) Cooking Fuel The household cooks with dung, wood or charcoal. (1/18) Assets The household does not own more than one radio, TV, telephone, bicycle, motorbike or

refrigerator and does not own a car or truck. (1/18)

15/05/2017

© Copyright ESCWA. All rights reserved. No part of this presentation in all its property may be used or reproduced in any form without written permission

Global MPI results for Arab States (most recent)

73.9

29.3

6.0 14.2

2.4

61.7

10.6

81.2

1.4 5.5 2.8 0.6

52.5

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

Co

mo

ros

Djib

ou

ti

Egyp

t

Iraq

Jord

an

Mau

rita

nia

Mo

rocc

o

Som

alia

Stat

e o

f P

ales

tin

e

Syri

a

Tun

isia

Un

ited

Ara

b…

Yem

en

Tailoring the MPI to the Arab region

● The Global MPI is designed to capture extreme forms of deprivation, which may overlook the more moderate (but still worrying) forms of poverty prevalent in most countries in the Arab region.

● Two levels of multidimensional poverty are considered to capture the kind of poverty found in the Arab region:

□ Acute poverty

□ Poverty (with more stringent definitions to capture the more moderate forms of poverty)

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Process, Process, Process! ● Started More than 3 years ago with a technical paper.

● 3 EGMs and regional consultations with our poverty network

● Proposal to PC with methodology discussed and accepted.

● Methodology presented at Amman meeting to MCs, global and

regional experts including option to drop comparability with

global MPI.

● Agreement to construct the Arab MPI with 3 added indicators.

● Statistical team computing results (in house contribution for the

first time) for HH and Child poverty.

● Report presented to High-Level Technical Meeting (Cairo, May

2017)

● Report endorsed by the LAS Ministerial Council.

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Overcrowding Female Genital Mutilation/ Early Pregnancy

Methodology (Step 1): Add region-specific indicators to MPI

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● Overcrowding has become a major factor in deprivation in the context of rising real estate and housing prices in several countries in the region, along with rapid population growth and migration into a few cities

● Overcrowding is associated with health risks and a crowded dwelling threatens the functioning of its dwellers

● If more than 4 persons share one sleeping room, the HH is considered deprived in acute poverty; if more than 3 persons it is deprived in the more moderate poverty index

● The prevalence of early pregnancy and FGM deeply affects the lives and health status of women in several countries in the Arab world.

● Early pregnancy causing complication at childbirth is a major factor behind death among adolescent girls (15-19) in the region.

● FGM is still practiced on a large scale in many Arab countries (e.g. 87% of women in the age group 15-29 in Egypt report FGM)

● FGM has serious health implications and is considered a violation of human rights

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Dimension Indicator Acute Poverty Deprived If

Poverty Deprived if

Weight

Education Years of

Schooling

No household member has completed primary schooling. No household member has completed secondary

schooling.

1/6

School

Attendance

Any child of primary school age is not attending school. Any school-age child is not attending school or is 2

years or more behind the right school grade.

1/6

Health Child Mortality Any child less than 60 months has died in the family during

the 59 months prior to the survey.

Same as MPI1 1/9

Child Nutrition Any child (0-59 months) is stunted (height for age < -2) or

any adult is malnourished (BMI < 18.5).

Any child (0-59 months) is stunted (height for age < -2)

or any child is wasted (weight for height < -2) or any

adult is malnourished (BMI < 18.5).

1/9

FGM/Early

Pregnancy

A woman less than 28 years old got her first pregnancy

before 18 years old and has undergone a female genital

mutilation (FGM).

A woman less than 28 years old got her first

pregnancy before 18 years old or has undergone a

female genital mutilation (FGM).

1/9

Living standards

Electricity Household has no electricity. Same as MPI1 1/21

Sanitation Household sanitation is not improved, according to MDG

guidelines, or it is improved but shared with other

household.

Same as MPI1 1/21

Water Household does not have access to safe drinking water,

according to MDG guidelines, or safe drinking water is 30-

minutes roundtrip walk or more away from home.

Household does not have piped water into dwelling or

yard.

1/21

Floor/Roof Floor is earth, sand, dung or roof is not available or made of

thatch, palm leaf or sod

Floor is earth, sand, dung, rudimentary

(woodplanks/bamboo/reeds/grass/canes), cement

floor (not slab or tiles/asphalt strips) or roof is not

available or made of thatch, palm leaf, sod, rustic mat,

palm, bamboo, wood plank, cardboard.

1/21

Cooking Fuel Household cooks with solid fuels: wood, charcoal, crop

residues or dung or no food is cooked in the household.

Household cooks with solid fuels: wood, charcoal,

crop residues or dung or no food is cooked in the

household or does not have a separate room for

cooking.

1/21

Overcrowding Household has 4 or more people per sleeping room. Household has 3 or more people per sleeping room. 1/21

Assets Household has not access to information or has access to

information and no access to easy mobility and no access to

livelihood assets.

Household has less than two assets for accessing

information, or there is more than one information

asset and less than two mobility assets and less than

two livelihood assets.

1/21

Methodology (Step 2): Adjust thresholds

Coverage and data sources

●We apply these new indices to 11 Arab countries for which recent data are available: Algeria, Comoros, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, Mauritania, Palestine, Sudan, Tunisia and Yemen

●These countries make up over 90% of the population of non-Gulf Cooperation Countries (GCC) Arab countries.

●Data sources: DHS/MICS/MICS (2011-2014)

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Household poverty is more widespread than we think affecting 4 in 10 HHs

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Palestine Jordan Tunisia

Algeria

Egypt Iraq

Morocco

Comoros

Yemen

Sudan Mauritania

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Acu

te P

ove

rty

(%)

Poverty (%)

Cluster 3

Cluster 2 Cluster 1

Vulnerability to HH Poverty is high in MICs and severity high in LDCs

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0.2 1.4 20.9

5.5 5.3 11.6

49.7

17.5 1.8 6.3

21.6

7.6 19.2

29.6

23.1

22.6

5.6 16.2

20.4

11.7

27.0

31.0

15.8

25.2 92.4 76.2

37.0

75.2

48.6 27.8

11.4

34.7

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Clu

ster

1

Clu

ster

2

Clu

ster

3

Re

gio

nal

Ave

rage

Clu

ster

1

Clu

ster

2

Clu

ster

3

Re

gio

nal

Ave

rage

Non-PoorVulnerable to poverty (deprivation score 20-33.32%)Poor excluding the severly poor (Deprivation score 33.3-50%)Severly Poor (deprivation score >50%)

Acute Poverty Poverty

25.2% of the population are vulnerable to falling into poverty

17.5% of the population are in severe poverty

High inequality in deprivation across household characteristics

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40

.1

54

.9

24

.6 3

8.

40

.3

54

.6

6.5

65

.5

11

.1

52

.

24

.

13

.4 22

.1

4.

14

.6

13

.

22

.6

1.5

30

.3

.6

15

.6

6.7

0

10

20

30

40

0

20

40

60

80

Tota

l

Ru

ral

Urb

an

FHH

MH

H

No

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

he

st e

du

cati

on

Bo

tto

m q

uin

tile

Top

qu

inti

le

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

8+

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

14

Tota

l

Ru

ral

Urb

an

FHH

MH

H

No

ed

uca

tio

n

Hig

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st e

du

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Bo

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uin

tile

Top

qu

inti

le

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

8+

Ho

use

ho

ld s

ize

14

Poverty Acute Poverty

MP

I sco

re (

%)

He

adco

un

t p

ove

rty

(%)

Headcount poverty (%) MPI score (%)

Poorest cluster 1&2 sub-regions are still better off than the least deprived cluster 3 sub-region

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Text

Text

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0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Acu

te P

ove

rty

Ind

ex

Poverty Index

Palestine

Jordan

Tunisia

Algeria

Egypt

Iraq

Morocco

Comoros

Yemen

Sudan

Mauritania

Conflict zones

Most of these sub-regions are in 2 countries only

15/05/2017

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Central Darfor

Guidimagha

West Kordofan

Hodh Gharby

East Darfor

Gorgol

West Darfor

Hodh Charghy

South Kordofan

North Darfor

Gadarif

South Darfor

Assaba

Hajjah

Blue Nile

SD NM

R TSD N

MR T

SD NM

R TSD N

MR T

SD NSD N

SD NSD N

MR T

YE MSD N

Sud

an

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Sud

an

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Sud

an

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Sud

an

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Sud

anSu

dan

Sud

anSu

dan

Ma

uri

tan

ia

Ye me n

Sud

an

Acute Poverty Poverty

Education is also main channel of poverty even in LDCs

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61 65.7 70.3 68.2 54 62.4 61.3 46.7 43.9 38.1 43.3

13.4 13.8 3.2 5.8 21.2 15.7 7 10.5 18 18.3 16.8

25.5 20.5 26.4 26 24.8 21.9 31.7 42.9 38.2 43.6 39.9

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Pal

esti

ne

Jord

an

Tun

isia

Alg

eria

Egyp

t

Iraq

Mo

rocc

o

Co

mo

ros

Yem

en

Sud

an

Mau

rita

nia

Education Health

27.5

64.3 52.7 52.2 59.3 62.2 47.8 38.8 37.8 38 38.2

48.3

15.7 15.6 13.6

24.4 15.9

13.8 17 19.7 15 15.8

24.2 19.9 31.8 34.2 16.3 21.9

38.4 44.3 42.5 47 46

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Pal

est

ine

Jord

an

Tun

isia

Alg

eria

Egyp

t

Iraq

Mo

rocc

o

Co

mo

ros

Yem

en

Sud

an

Mau

rita

nia

Education Health Living Standards

Acute

Poverty

Poverty

2 Main Conclusions

–MP more powerful in depicting various facets of deprivation and their overlap and thus is more relevant, especially for social policy interventions.

–Poverty and Inequality story is very different especially for latter. MP reveals strikingly higher inequalities.

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Definitely, we need more effective social policies

–Address gaps in education

–Reform and expand social protection systems

–Address food security needs and rural development

15/05/2017

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Regional interventions for the Ultra

Poor

Activate the Arab food security emergency programme launched by the AofAD with 14.3 USD Billion in 2016 commitments and expected to rise to 31.5 Billion by 2031. Targeted support to poorest sub-regions regions as a basis for the forthcoming Arab Poverty Reduction Strategy (focus on 1000 poorest villages)

We also need better statistics and capacity building on poverty measurement

1. MP more powerful in depicting different facets of deprivation and their overlap. It is the future of poverty measurement but best approach (Mexico is to combine both for same HHs).

2. In any case there is a dire need to significantly improve statistics and analytical capacities for poverty monitoring is needed in ACs. We suggest an

Arab Poverty and Inequality Center (ESCWA-OPHI,

LAS)

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But these policies will not work unless root

causes of poverty/conflict are addressed

Arab Vision 2030 Report calls for major change across the board: 1. Peace and stability 2. Governance 3. Structural transformation 4. Inclusive development 5. Regional integration

– Since vulnerability is high (both MM and Multidimensional) poverty in ACs today will be higher, whichever way it is measured since most of our surveys were for 2011-14.

–Conflict, especially after 2011, has had devastating impact on Yemen, Libya, Syria and Iraq (2007-2012 saw a decline in average schooling for children in Iraq and Yemen) especially in areas of high intensity of conflict.

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Finally.. The cost of BAU is high

Thank you