Multi-technology Approachto

Vehicle Integration With the Grid

Multi-technology Approachto

Vehicle Integration With the Grid

Bill Reinert

Advanced Technology Group,

Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC

October 25, 2010

Bill Reinert

Advanced Technology Group,

Toyota Motor Sales, USA, INC

October 25, 2010

IEEE Communications Society

24th Annual Computer Communications Workshop

Lake Arrowhead, CA

IEEE Communications Society

24th Annual Computer Communications Workshop

Lake Arrowhead, CA

AgendaAgenda

Future Energy

Future Vehicles

Future Society

Today – 2Today – 2 4 Additional by 20504 Additional by 2050

New York, NY18.65M

Los Angeles, CA12.22M

2006 citymayors.com

Atlanta, GA

Miami, FLDallas – Fort Worth, TX

Chicago, IL

On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)On One Hand: Growing Megacities (>10M)

Urban Mass Transport SolutionsUrban Mass Transport Solutions

Personal Rapid TransitLight Rail

Developing Solutions For The Last Mile ProblemDeveloping Solutions For The Last Mile ProblemiReal

Winglet

CityCar

On the Other Hand: Populations are SpreadingOn the Other Hand: Populations are Spreading

2/3 of US jobs, 3/4 economic output, are within 35 mi of 98 largest central business districts (CBD). Increasingly, they are moving to a ring 10-35 mi from CBD. (Brookings Inst.)

Geographic Distribution of Job Share 98 Metro Areas, 1998 - 2006

Most Commutes Are Suburb to SuburbMost Commutes Are Suburb to Suburb

Metropolitan Flow Map (Millions of Commuters)

Source Brookings Inst.

Unique US Urbanization and Transportation TrendsUnique US Urbanization and Transportation Trends

Fifty-year US Travel and Economic Trends

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Per

cen

t (%

) C

han

ge

sin

ce 1

960

GDP: US Bureau of Economic Analysis, chained 2000 dollars; VMT: “Highway Statistics 2007” Table VMT-421, FHWA; Population: US Census;

Gas Price: “Short Term Energy Outlook-October 2009” US Energy Information Administration, annual prices scaled by US CPI in 2008

• US Vehicle Miles Traveled grows with US economy

• Jobs and housing are decentralizing (despite efforts to do the opposite)

• Commute distance increasing (often between suburbs of metro area)

• Highway car remains critically important to US

National Highway Travel Survey 2001, US Bureau of Transportation Statistics Omnibus Household Survey 2003, ABC News/Time

magazine/Washington Post poll 2005

One-way Commute Distance

0

5

10

15

20

1981 1991 2001Pe

rso

n T

rip

Le

ng

th (

mile

s)

Personal Income (2000 $)

Vehicle Miles Traveled

Gas $/Gal CPI Adj.

Population

AgendaAgenda

Future Energy

Future Vehicles

Future Society

Oil Prices Strongly Influenced by Excess CapacityOil Prices Strongly Influenced by Excess Capacity

Source: Neftex (Dr. Peter Wells)

Excess Capacity PriceExcess

Capacity

Platform Platform DesignDesign

Cheap Oil

Expensive Oil

Scarce Oil

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

b/d

Non Opec

Opec

Spare capacity

NGLs

Canadian tar sands

BiofuelsCTL

GTL

0

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040

b/d

Non Opec

Opec

Spare capacity

NGLs

Canadian tar sands

BiofuelsCTL

GTL

Oil Production Forecast Oil Price Forecast

2020

Finding replacements part 1Finding replacements part 1

Heavy crude

lb per MMBTU of fuel

BTU input per BTU of fuel

per MMBTU of

fuel

per gallon of fuel

MMBTUe of fuel per

acre

gallons of fuel per

acre

Fraction of U.S.

croplandAcresb

Transportation energy

displacement

Fuelsource

CO2

emissionsa

Energy ratio

Water use (gallons)Land use

240,000c50%

120,000c25%Tar sands ~180~0.25 ~38~5 ~350,000~3 Mlow

48,000c10%

37,000c50%

19,000c25%In situ

oil shale~240~0.15 ~45~6~65,000~20 Mvery low

7,500c10%

~200 ~0.25~80~10--very lowa few

thousand0-100%

~150~0.1 d~10dn/a--very lowa few

thousand 0-100%CNG

20,60050%

10,30025% ~380~0.5243~500,000~4.4 Mvery low

4,10010%

Coal-to-liquid

1750.088010--very lowa few

thousand 0-100%Conventional

diesel

1750.05455--very lowa few

thousand 0-100%Conventional

gasoline

Source: Kreider and Associates

Finding replacements part 2Finding replacements part 2

lb per MMBTU of fuel

BTU input per BTU of fuel

per MMBTU of

fuel

per gallon of fuel

MMBTUe of fuel per

acre

gallons of fuel per

acre

Fraction of U.S.

croplandAcresb

Transportation energy

displacementFuel

source

CO2

emissionsa

Energy ratio

Water use (gallons)Land use

~1050.6655--very lowtens of

thousands 0-100%MSW-based

ethanol

0.24005080060004 %13 M50%

0.24005080060002%6.5 M25%absorbs CO2

waste

0.2400508006000< 1%2.5 M10%

Algaculture

2400.766900900757390%1.2 B50%

2400.766900900757120%380 M25%

2400.76690090075780%253 M10%Soybean

biodiesel fuel

3300.9219001493951072%228 M50%

3300.9219001463951535%112 M25%

3300.9219001463951515%46 M10%Cellulosic

ethanol

3500.98290022028360103%337 M50%

3500.9823001802837051%160 M25%

3500.9822001702837020%65 M10%Corn-based

ethanol

1750.088010--very lowa few

thousand 0-100%Conventional

diesel

1750.05455--very lowa few

thousand 0-100%Conventional

gasoline

Source: Kreider and Associates

AgendaAgenda

Future Energy

Future Vehicles

Future Society

0 60 12020 100

50

100

40 80 140

Source: 1990 Nationwide personal transportation survey

(%)Cumulative percentage of personal automobile trips

Cumulative percentage oftravel distance energy

Approx. 20%

Average Daily Travel Distance per Vehicle (miles)

U.S. Driving Patterns

PHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer TripsPHV Role: EV Mode For Short Distance HV Mode for Longer Trips

Approx. 35%

80% Trips

Toyota’s PHV Development

Operation SpecificationsOperation Specifications

Electric Vehicle Charger Assembly

Engine

Electric Motor Electric Vehicle Charger Cable Assembly

HV Battery

AC 110 V to 220 V

Household Outlet

Max. OutputMax. OutputEngineEngine 98 HP (73 kW)98 HP (73 kW)

MG2MG2 80 HP (60 kW)80 HP (60 kW)

In EV Driving In EV Driving ModeMode

Max. SpeedMax. Speed Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)Approx. 62 mph (100 km/h)

RangeRange Approx. 13 miles (21 km )Approx. 13 miles (21 km )

Power SourcePower Source Household Electrical OutletsHousehold Electrical Outlets

Charging TimeCharging Time Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)Approximately 3 hrs (110 V)

HV Battery CoolingHV Battery Cooling

Additional fansAdditional fans New ductworkNew ductwork 42 Temperature Sensors42 Temperature Sensors

Additional fansAdditional fans New ductworkNew ductwork 42 Temperature Sensors42 Temperature Sensors

Intake Air Ducts

HV Battery Cooling Blowers

HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for HV Battery Pack)

HV Battery Temperature Sensors (for Intake Air Duct)

Sub 2 Main Sub1

DC/DC Converter Cooling Blower

　　 　　 　　　　 　　 ‘10 　　‘09 ‘08‘07

Accumulate Field data

Small demo

Test car Field Data

NiMH Li Li (Revised)Battery

Accumulate Field data

Step by Step approach, dependent on Battery Development

Li (Adv)

Understand market potentialUnderstand market potential

Field Test Phase

Mediumvolume

Mass volume

Toyota’s PHV Introduction ScenarioToyota’s PHV Introduction Scenario

(10)(10)

(150)(150)

(~25K)(~25K)

Last Century Urban Mobility ProjectsLast Century Urban Mobility Projects

Toyota e-Com Toyota e-Com shared-use ‘community’ EVsshared-use ‘community’ EVsfor employeesfor employees

Toyota e-Com Toyota e-Com shared-use ‘community’ EVsshared-use ‘community’ EVsfor employeesfor employees

Crayon SystemCrayon Systempay-as-you-go public EV pay-as-you-go public EV rentalsrentals

New Urban Mobility – EV ConceptNew Urban Mobility – EV Concept

Range: 50 miles

Charge Time:

~ 2.5hr/7.5hr (220V/110V)

2012

Transition in Personal MobilityTransition in Personal Mobility

Mobility based on Personal

Automobile

Mobility based on Multiple Modes

• Car Sharing

• Personal Rapid Transit

• Mass Rapid TransitTransition will require:

1. Real-time Communication from Vehiclea) to customer (web portal, Smart Phone)b) to utilities

2. Shift to other modes of personal transportation

3. Partnerships

Technology Enables New PossibilitiesTechnology Enables New Possibilities

Wireless Technology Promotes Wireless Technology Promotes Modal DiversityModal Diversity

ConvergenceConvergence of: of:

• Wireless ComputingWireless Computing• Consumer ElectronicsConsumer Electronics• TransportationTransportation• Energy ManagementEnergy Management• Eco-impact MetricsEco-impact Metrics

Recommend Recommend optimal modeoptimal mode to minimize price minimize price &

travel timetravel time

Eco Technology Conserves Eco Technology Conserves Energy, Reduces COEnergy, Reduces CO22

Locate

Charge Station

Locate Mass Transit

Zipcar Available? Smarter

Charging Stations

Vehicle to

Grid

Smart Grid

PEV ENABLERSPEV ENABLERS

MonitorMonitor

Charge StatusCharge Status

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Fox Business 2008 (70 Campuses); Innovative Mobility Research 2007 (current members), CNW Research 2008 (8 million forecast)

Members (000s)

200k+ 200k+ CurrentCurrent

MembersMembers

U.S. Car Sharing Growth ForecastU.S. Car Sharing Growth Forecast

8 mm 8 mm PotentialPotential

2007 ~2020

Currently at 70+ U.S. college Currently at 70+ U.S. college campusescampuses

Car Sharing is GrowingCar Sharing is Growing

For Plug-in Cars To be Successful Key Infrastructure Issues RemainFor Plug-in Cars To be Successful Key Infrastructure Issues Remain

Vehicle to Grid Communications

Electric Utilities have excess electricity generation capacity during off-peak hours – typically at night

Even during off-peak times, however, there is insufficient electricity distribution capacity for many PEVs to charge at the same time

Communication between vehicle and “grid” is necessary to avoid negative impacts to distribution system (such as local outages)

Level 2 Charging Equipment The majority of customers, particularly larger-capacity BEVs (50+ miles), will

need/want L2 (220V) charging at home and business

The installation of L2 charging equipment is extremely challenging: high cost, lengthy time period, complex interactions among City, Utilities, Contractor, Customer, OEM and Dealer

Resolving L2 installation issues will be critical for EV market adoption

Last Mile Grid System not Developed Old Transformers Cannot Accommodate Multiple EVs Charging in One

Neighborhood

Night Time Charging Limits Charging Hours

Public Charging Not Assured

“What the Market will Bear”“What the Market will Bear”

Prius

PriusPHV

Mass Market

Source: PIN

2008 Midsize Car Prices

0 -- 2500

5000 -- 7500

10,000 -- 12,500

15,000 -- 17,500

20,000 -- 22,500

25,000 -- 27,500

30,000 -- 32,500

35,000 -- 37,500

40,000 -- 42,500

45,000 -- 47,500

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

The U.S. market is primed for light PHVs . . . . .The U.S. market is primed for light PHVs . . . . .

if oil prices play along

Source: Lux Research

The Obama administration has made EVs an agenda item…The Obama administration has made EVs an agenda item…

Congress passed energy Congress passed energy legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. emissions below 2005 levels emissions below 2005 levels (Senate has not voted on (Senate has not voted on legislation)legislation) 17% reduction by 202017% reduction by 2020 83% reduction by 205083% reduction by 2050

American Recovery and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act included $2.4 Reinvestment Act included $2.4 billion in funding for battery billion in funding for battery development and electric vehicle development and electric vehicle componentcomponent

Congress passed energy Congress passed energy legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. legislation in 2009 to reduce U.S. emissions below 2005 levels emissions below 2005 levels (Senate has not voted on (Senate has not voted on legislation)legislation) 17% reduction by 202017% reduction by 2020 83% reduction by 205083% reduction by 2050

American Recovery and American Recovery and Reinvestment Act included $2.4 Reinvestment Act included $2.4 billion in funding for battery billion in funding for battery development and electric vehicle development and electric vehicle componentcomponent

Energy Plan from Campaign - Key Points Progress vs. Campaign Promises

Put 1 million plug-in hybrid Put 1 million plug-in hybrid and/or electric vehicles on the and/or electric vehicles on the road by 2015road by 2015

Ensure 10% of energy comes Ensure 10% of energy comes from renewable sources by 2012 from renewable sources by 2012 and 25% by 2025and 25% by 2025

Implement economy-wide cap-Implement economy-wide cap-and-trade program to reduce and-trade program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% greenhouse gas emissions 80% from 1990 levels by 2050from 1990 levels by 2050

…backed by significant financial commitments…backed by significant financial commitments

25,000

4650

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

1,6361,636

TeslTeslaa

NissaNissan NAn NA

AVMIP AVMIP FundiFundi

ngng

FiskFiskerer

ForFordd

16,54516,545

2424529529

TennecTennecoo

Not Not DistribuDistribu

tedted

5,8015,801

Advanced Tech Vehicles Manufacturing Loan Program

Measured in USD Millions

2,410

1,247

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

OtOtherher

8181

ToTotaltal

Not Not DistriDistributedbuted

3535

Adv Adv Veh Veh & &

Trans Trans ElectElect

rr

347347

Elec Elec Drive Drive

CompoComponentnent

465465

Adv Adv Batt Batt Supp Supp MfgMfg

235235

Cell, Cell, Batt, Batt, and and Mtls Mtls MfgMfg

American Reinvestment & Recovery Act AwardsMeasured in USD Millions

Source: U.S. Department of Energy

ATVM provides loans for the cost of re-equipping, expanding, or establishing

manufacturing facilities in the United States to produce advanced technology vehicles or

qualified components, and for associated engineering integration costs

ARRA provides funding for U.S.-based manufacturers to:

• Produce batteries and components• Produce electric drive components

such as electric motors and power electronics

However, past presidential agenda items such as solar power have struggled once funding was cut

However, past presidential agenda items such as solar power have struggled once funding was cut

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

275

300

325

350

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

USD USD MillionsMillions

Estimated Department of Energy Solar FundingMeasured in 2007 Dollars

Source: Sissine, “Federal Spending for Solar Energy”, Congressional Research Service July 11, 2008; EIA “Solar Thermal Collector Shipments by Type, Price, and Trade 1974 - 2007

ConcentrationConcentrationPhotovoltaicPhotovoltaic

Shipments of Solar Thermal CollectorsMeasured in Millions of Square Feet

88

22

2020

1616

44

1818

1414

66

00199199

00

6.26.2

3.63.6

2.52.5

19819888

4.14.1

3.33.3

0.70.7

19819866

4.94.9

3.83.8

1.11.1

19819844

16.416.4

4.54.5

11.911.9

19819822

18.618.6

7.57.5

11.111.1

19819800

19.419.4

12.212.2

7.27.2

19719788

10.910.9

Square FeetSquare Feet

(Millions)(Millions)

5.05.0

19719766

5.85.8

3.93.9

1.91.9

5.95.91.31.3

1.11.10.10.1

1212

1010

19719744

Low-TempLow-TempMedium-TempMedium-Temp1977 - 1979: President Carter makes multiplespeeches touting solar power and installspanels on roof of White House

President Reagan cuts funding for solar development

20%

40%

5%10%

20%

30%25%

50% 50%

30%

20%

95%90%

72%

35%

20%

10%

35%

10%2%1%

10%5%3%

15%

97%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040-2050

PHEV BEV/ FCV Conv HEV Conv Gas

Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2Strong Regulatory Push: Reduce CO2

CARB expects BEV/FCV sales volume to surpass conventional gas by 2035 and reach 30% of mix by 2040

However, the above vision does not achieve the 80% reduction in GHG emissions from 1990 levels by 2050; ZEVs will need to reach 100% of vehicle sales by 2040, to meet the 80% goal

CARB 2050 Vision

Sources: California Air Resources Board; “[ZEV] White Paper”

CARB Assumptions: Retail Price Increase Versus 2035 Hybrid

2035 Plug-in Hybrid (30 mile AER) $3,400

2035 Battery Electric (100 mile range) $5,500

2035 Fuel Cell $2,800

EV Costs vs CO2 ReductionEV Costs vs CO2 Reduction

Duke University, Plug-in and regular hybrids: A national and regional comparison of costs and CO2 emissions.

Outside Voices: Evaluation of PHVs, Duke UniversityOutside Voices: Evaluation of PHVs, Duke University

Comparison of Vehicle Powertrain TechnologiesComparison of Vehicle Powertrain Technologies

Lifetime emissionsLifetime

energy use

CO2 equiv SOx NOx Hg

lb lb lb lb MMBTU

Gasoline (30mpg Sentra) 140,000 150 160 0.00084 721

EV-40 (Current US Grid) 110,000 430 210 0.00190 339

PHEV-20 (Reduced Volt) 100,000 270 160 0.00120 409

HEV (2010 Prius) 97,000 140 120 0.00071 472

Fuel Cell (70mi/kg) 76,000 4,100 53 0.00047 626

Comparison of Vehicle Powertrain TechnologiesComparison of Vehicle Powertrain Technologies

Lifetime energy use breakdown

FC HEV PHEV-20 EV-40 Gas

Material production 17% 17% 20% 25% 11%

Vehicle assembly 3% 3% 4% 5% 2%

Fuel production / transport 10% 10% 9% 5% 12%

Vehicle operation 63% 63% 59% 54% 71%

Vehicle maintenance 3% 3% 3% 4% 2%

Vehicle disposal 4% 4% 5% 7% 3%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Electricity HydrogenGasoline, Diesel, 　　　　　　　Biofuel, etc

Public transportPublic transportPrivate usePrivate use

　

i-seriesi-series

BicycleBicycleElectric

welfare vehicle

Med/Large vehiclesMed/Large vehicles

ScooterScooter

Light vehicleLight vehicle

MicrobusMicrobus

City busCity bus

Delivery truckDelivery truck

Delivery Delivery vehicle vehicle

WingletWingletPMRPMR

High-Speed,High-Speed,Long-Distance DrivingLong-Distance Driving

Lower-Speed,Lower-Speed,Short-Distance DrivingShort-Distance Driving

Highway drivingHighway drivingbetween citiesbetween cities

Low-Speed,Low-Speed,Inter-City DrivingInter-City Driving

Med-to-High Speed,Med-to-High Speed,Med-Distance DrivingMed-Distance Driving

Large truckLarge truckVehicle SizeVehicle Size

FCV FCV SectorSectorFCV FCV

SectorSector

EV EV sectorsector

EV EV sectorsector

Driving distance

ICE HV & PHV SectorICE HV &

PHV Sector

EV commuterEV commuter

Mobility-basedMobility-based Vehicle-basedVehicle-based

PHEVPHEV

HVHV

Roles of EV/PHEV/FCVRoles of EV/PHEV/FCV

Apply existing technologies in new waysApply existing technologies in new ways

Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, Most of the technologies mentioned already exist, just not yet in the mobility spacejust not yet in the mobility space

For now smaller battery approaches are more For now smaller battery approaches are more cost effectivecost effective

Implies multiple charge periods throughout the dayImplies multiple charge periods throughout the day

At the end of the day, customer is kingAt the end of the day, customer is king

All solutions must solve customers problems without All solutions must solve customers problems without creating new onescreating new ones

Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at Charging solutions to manage the grid may be at odds with customer expectations.odds with customer expectations.

SummarySummary