multi-metric indicator use in social preference elicitation and valuation patrick fogarty...
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Multi-Metric Indicator Use in Social Preference Elicitation and ValuationPatrick Fogarty
UW-WhitewaterEconomics Student
Multi-Metric Indicators
Indicator
Component 1
… …
Component 2
… …
Component 3
… …
Fuel Index
Environmental Damage
Disruption of Ecosystems
Decline of Species
Human Health Impacts
Infectious Diseases
Cardiovascular and
respiratory Diseases
Other Impacts
Natural Resource Use
Cost of Extracting Resources
Loss of Resources
Other Examples of Indicators GDP
Education Expenditure
Theories Indicators can serve as a generalized
measurement of a complicated system of relationships that can help people be more informed.
Indicators are too complicated and abstract for the average person to fully understand.
Cognitive Burden vs. Usefulness
Low Cognitive Burden
High Cognitive Burden
Not Useful Very UsefulGoal of IndicatorsWhat w
e Get?
My Questions 1. Does the average person understand
what a change in a multi-metric indicator represents?
2. Should indicators be seen as an effective informative tool in preference elicitation?
Literature Review Johnston et al. (Land Economics, 2012) Johnston et al. (Ecological Economics,
2011) Orians and Policansky, (Annual Review
of Environment and Resources, 2009) Key National Indicators Act of 2010
The State of the USA
Method Expand on previous work that valued
people’s preferences of three indicators representing externalities of transportation fuel (Winden, 2014)
Determine the value for a change in an indicator that aggregates the three components above.
Compare results to test respondents’ preference consistency
Data set Internet survey conducted by
Knowledge Networks on transportation fuel preferences from 2009.
430 responses
Survey Participant Criteria
Be an adult resident of Ohio state, Be able to provide an estimate of the
mileage per gallon of their day to day vehicle,
Provide the amount of money they paid per gallon the last time they filled up their day to day vehicle,
Answer questions about the meaning of the index correctly.
The Indicators Developed using Eco-indicator 99 Summarization of three impacts of the production and
consumption of the fuel mix into one number; Environmental damage Natural Resource use Health impacts
Can take on a value from 0 to 100 The higher the number…
the more damage to the environment An increased strain on natural resources The higher the risk of harmful effects on human health
Fuel Index
Environmental Damage
Disruption of Ecosystems
Decline of Species
Human Health Impacts
Infectious Diseases
Cardiovascular and
respiratory Diseases
Other Impacts
Natural Resource Use
Cost of Extracting Resources
Loss of Resources
Current Fuel Mix New Fuel Mix0
20
40
60
80
100
55
69
Fuel Index
Assuming that you will be driving the same vehicle you currently use for your day to day driving, if the new fuel mix were available, would you prefer the new fuel mix over the current fuel mix given that the Fuel Index increases from 55 to 69 and Fuel Prices decrease by 5% from $2.00 to $1.90 per gallon?
Enivronmental Damage
Natural Resource
Use
Human Health Risk
0
20
40
60
80
100
50 50 50Current Fuel
Mix
$Original Price per Gallon
Enivronmen-tal Damage
Natural Resource
Use
Human Health Risk
0
20
40
60
80
100
4550 50
Fuel Mix A
$New Price per Gallon
Enivronmental Damage
Natural Resource
Use
Human Health Risk
0
20
40
60
80
100
62.5
37.5
50
Fuel Mix B
$New Priceper Gallon
Assuming you are driving the same vehicle that you currently drive, and the expected fuel mileage does not change, which Fuel Mix would you prefer? I would prefer Current
Fuel Mix I would prefer Fuel Mix
A I would prefer Fuel Mix
B
Random Utility Model
Where represents the indirect utility of 𝑢respondent i with the j-th alternative, is a 𝑥vector of attributes of choice, M is discretionary income, is the price of the alternative and is unobserved preferences 𝜀known to the individual.
Mixed Logit
Variables Dependent
Choice: 0 if the person preferred the status quo; 1 if the person preferred the alternative
Independent Price – The price per gallon of the fuel
alternative. Index – A rating (0 being low, 100 being
high) of how damaging the fuel alternative is to the environment, human health, and natural resources.
Descriptive Statistics – Fuel Index variables
Variable N MeanStandard Deviation Min Max Skewness
Choice 860 0.5 0.5 0 1 0
Fuel Price 860 1.887 0.23 1 3.29 2.307
Fuel Index Rating 860 49.653 8.083 33.75 68.75 0.275
Results – Mixed Logit
Choice Coefficient
Variable(Standard Error)
Fuel Price -3.124**
(1.268)
Fuel Index Ratings -0.079***
(0.02)*,**,*** significance at the 10, 5, and 1%
level, respectively
Marginal Willingness to Pay
Comparison
Fuel Index: 2.5¢
Environmental Damage:
2.9¢
Human Health
Effects: 3.4¢
Natural Resource Use: 2.2¢
Environmental Damage - 2.9 Human Health Impact - 3.4 Natural Resource Use - 2.2
Weigting System Weight Value Weight Value Weight Value Marginal WTP
Equal 33% $ 0.010 33% $ 0.011 33% $ 0.007 $ 0.028
Estimated 34% $ 0.010 40% $ 0.014 26% $ 0.006 $ 0.029
Individualistic 25% $ 0.007 55% $ 0.019 20% $ 0.004 $ 0.030
Egalitarian 50% $ 0.015 30% $ 0.010 20% $ 0.004 $ 0.029
Hierarchist 40% $ 0.012 30% $ 0.010 30% $ 0.007 $ 0.028
Fuel Index Marginal WTP = $0.025