multi-airport systems
TRANSCRIPT
Multi-Airport SystemsProf. Richard de Neufville
Airport Planning and Management
Module 23
January 2017
Istanbul Technical University
Air Transportation Management
M.Sc. Program Airport Planning and Management / RdN
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Two Topics
1. What is a Multi-Airport System (MAS)?
Definition
Examples
Explanation Frequency competition effect
and special roles/markets
2. Role of LCCs in Development
Second Airports Good initial base
Role may decrease as LCC “take over”
from legacy carriers
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
What is a
Multi-Airport System?
The significant commercial airports
[> 500,000 passengers, excluding military] …
in a metropolitan region
without regard to ownership or political control
Examples: Boston, Providence, Manchester [different states]
Copenhagen (Denmark), Malmö (Sweden)
Istanbul: Ataturk and Sabiha Gokçen airports
Often ex–military [London/Stansted; Frankfurt/Hahn]
In all cities with > 17 million annual
originating passengers
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Discussion of Definition
• Our definition contrasts with focus on who
owns the airports (focus of ACI – Airports
Council International, and others)
However, our definition is reality for travelers
and for airlines
They generally do not care who owns
airports [often do not know]
Only care when passport or other issues
complicate use of other airport
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Example: Boston
Source: Bonnefoy
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Example: New York
Source: Bonnefoy
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems in US
Source: Bonnefoy
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Example: Frankfurt (Germany)
Source: Bonnefoy
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Prof. Richard de Neufville
and
Dr. Philippe A. Bonnefoy
November 2016
See also:
P. Bonnefoy, R. de Neufville and R. Hansman,
“Evolution and Development of Multi-Airport
Systems: A Worldwide Perspective”
ASCE Journal of Transportation Engineering,
Special Issue, Vol. 136, No. 11, pp. 2010-2019 , 2010
Multi-Airport Systems
Database
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©10
Multi-Airport Systems Worldwide
Legend
Europe
North America
Latin America &
Caribbean
Middle East
Multi-Airport
System
Asia/Pacific
60 multi-airport systems
in 26 countries
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems
in Asia-Pacific, 2015
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems
in Europe, 2015 (1)
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems
in Europe, 2015 (2)
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems
in Europe, 2015 (3)
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems
Latin America & Middle East, 2015
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems
in North America, 2015 (1)
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Multi-Airport Systems
in North America, 2015 (2)
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
General Observations
All metropolitan areas with greatest number of
Originating Passengers (eliminating transfers)
feature a MAS
Originating traffic drives MAS formation
Transfer traffic wants to use only 1 airport
Atlanta, World leader in traffic (> 100 million)
has ~ 70% transfers, ~ 15 million
originations/year AND ONLY 1 airport
Second airports mostly serve a fraction (often
small) of total at airport with most passengers.
This reflects concentration factor …
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Metropolitan areas with
significant multi-airport systems (1)
de Neufville data base for 2016
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Metropolitan areas with
significant multi-airport systems (2)
de Neufville data base for 2016
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Planning Issue
Many‘mistakes’ in planning multi-
airport systems
Washington/Dulles – planned as major DC
airport, but had only ~ 3 MAP for 20 years
London/Stansted – similar story – only
developed with Ryanair hub around 2002
Osaka/Kansai – Osaka/Itami did not close
Montreal/Mirabel – huge airfield, now
“closed” to passenger traffic
Et cetera…
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Why mistakes happened
Two main causes:
1.Failure to appreciate traffic concentration
at primary airports – result of frequency
competition
2.Because planners/forecasters used wrong
mental model [‘catchment area’] that
passengers go to nearest airport – while
distance is a factor, passengers go to
where airlines offer services they want
(intercontinental, low-cost, etc.)
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
What drives traffic allocation in
Multi-Airport System?
Airline competition has been primary
S-shaped market share/frequency share
Drives airlines toMatch flights => Use flights for major markets
Concentrate Traffic at primary airports
Frequency Share
Market
Share
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Right model: “Concentration”not “Catchment Areas”
Concentration is standard urban
phenomenon
e.g.: financial, jewelry, etc. districts
Driven by what suppliers offer
Customers choose which location
(airport) depending on where they
find what they need -- not just
most convenient facility
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
“Concentration” persists --
until high level of local traffic
When local originating traffic high…
More flights add little at major airports
Airlines place flights at second airports
There appears to be a ‘threshold”…
Currently ~ 17 million originations/year
Note: higher as “average” aircraft carries more
passengers, larger aircraft or higher load factor
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Major exceptions to rule:
technical or political
Until recently, major exceptions to
concentration rule were:
Technical -- runways too short
Belfast, Belo Horizonte, Buenos Aires,
Rio de Janeiro, Taipei
Political -- or military...
Berlin, Dusseldorf/Bonn, Glasgow
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Role of Low-cost carriers:
setting up “parallel network”
Low-cost carriers “parallel” majors
Ticket distribution separate
Internet direct to users, ‘no’ travel agents
‘No’ interlining of bags, tickets
‘Not’ in Reservation systems
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Theme for Low-Cost Carriers
Low cost carriers have developed a “parallel network” of travel
“network choice” (vs. “airport choice”) boosts traffic in multi-airport systems
Competition between “low cost” and “legacy” airlines leading to struggle between “low cost” and “legacy” hubsMiami/Internatl vs. Miami/Ft. Lauderdale
London/Heathrow vs. London/Stansted, etc.
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Situation in 2000 to now:
LCC choose different airports
Spirit and Allegiant (USA); Ryanair and
Easyjet (UK) desire cheap airports
Orlando vs Orlando/Sanford (Allegiant)
Montreal and Montreal/Plattsburg (Spirit)
London/Healthrow and London/Luton (Easyjet)
Low congestion and delays
Flexible work force
They find this at aggressive
airports,‘hungry’for their business
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Southwest: Traditional focus
on lesser airports
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Europe Network of
Low-Cost Carrier Airports
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But what is future?
Low-cost airlines becoming
‘major’Southwest has largest market share of US
domestic passengers in US -- about 20% -
- and has for years
… despite mega mergers
• Delta + Northwest
• UAL + Continental
• American + US Air
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LCC’s are now
moving in on hub airports
Boston is an example
jetBlue now largest carrier at Boston/Logan
Southwest has arrived, thus
… de-emphasizing Manchester, Providence
Southwest now also at
New York/LaGuardia; New York/Newark
Washington/Dulles; Philadelphia
Los Angeles/Internatl; San Francisco/Internatl
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Meanwhile in cargo
A similar development in air cargo
Fedex and UPS are developing their
own networks of cargo airports
Fedex: Memphis, Indianapolis, San
Francisco/ Oakland, Fort
Worth/Alliance, London/Stansted (UK)
UPS: Louisville, Los Angeles/Ontario,
Chicago/Rockford, Toronto/Hamilton
Multi-Airport Systems / RdN ©
Summary
Multi-airport Systems:
A well-established phenomenon
Largely driven by originating passengers
Second airports usually smaller than primary
LCCs drove much growth of second
airports up to about 2010, now they are
moving in on larger airports
However, their influence may be decreasing,
as they supplant majors in continental markets