MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK: OECD AMERICAS

MEDIUM-TERM RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET REPORT 2012 19

MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK: OECD AMERICAS Summary

• OECD Americas renewable electricity generation is projected to grow from 1 029 TWh in 2011 to 1 204 TWh in 2017 (+2.7% per year). Onshore wind will lead this growth, with generation increasing by 107 TWh, followed by solar photovoltaics (PV) (+36 TWh) and bioenergy (+31 TWh). Concentrating solar power (CSP), geothermal and offshore wind should account for a smaller part of the overall growth. Relative to global deployment in these technologies, OECD Americas additions to geothermal and CSP should be quite large. Hydropower declines slightly over the period, even as capacity expands, due to stronger-than-normal United States output in 2011.

• United States renewable electricity capacity should grow from 167 GW in 2011 to 223 GW in

2017 (+4.9% per year). Deployment should be led by onshore wind (+27 GW), solar PV (+21 GW) and CSP (+4 GW). Bioenergy (+3 GW) and geothermal (+0.4 GW) should also make notable additions. The large size of the United States market combined with state targets and good economic attractiveness in some areas should spur strong deployment. Still, the stability of federal incentives remains a key uncertainty. Notably, forecast growth for onshore wind slows sharply in 2013 with the expiration of a production tax credit.

• Other OECD Americas countries are expected to grow from a combined 104 GW in 2011 to

136 GW in 2017 (+4.6% per year). A reduction in feed-in tariffs in Ontario should have only a minor impact on Canadian deployment, with growth expected to continue in solar PV and onshore wind. Meanwhile, Mexico and Chile should increasingly exploit their rich resources across many technologies. In the former, near-term activity will be led by wind, with solar additions emerging in later years. The latter is developing wind, solar, biomass, geothermal and hydropower projects. Financing and integration constraints will weigh upon deployment though.

Table 4 OECD Americas renewable electricity generation (TWh)

2005

% Total Gen 2011

% Total Gen 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Hydropower 716 13.7% 784 14.7% 740 745 751 757 761 765 Bioenergy 72 1.4% 71 1.3% 82 86 90 94 98 102 Wind 19 0.4% 142 2.7% 156 176 189 205 227 251 Onshore 19 0.4% 142 2.7% 156 176 189 205 226 249 Offshore - 0.0% - 0.0% - 0 0 0 1 2 Solar PV 1 0.0% 5 0.1% 9 14 19 25 32 41 Solar CSP 1 0.0% 2 0.0% 2 4 8 11 14 15 Geothermal 24 0.5% 25 0.5% 26 26 26 27 28 29 Ocean 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total RES-E 832 16.0% 1 029 19.3% 1 015 1 051 1 083 1 119 1 160 1 204

Notes: unless otherwise indicated, all material in figures and tables derives from IEA data and analysis. Hydropower includes pumped storage; the split between onshore and offshore wind for 2005 and 2011 is estimated; CSP = concentrating solar power; RES-E = electricity generated from renewable energy sources.

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