mtr of the first national development plan · 6.9 7.2 6.4 10.5 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 total gdp growth...
TRANSCRIPT
MTR of the First National Development
Plan
A Presentation at the Evaluation Week Meeting
By Patrick B. Birungi
5/28/2014 1
Outline
Background
Objectives and Methodology
Mid-Term Review - Progress, Challenges and
recommendations
Conclusion and Way Foward
5/28/2014 2
Background
• GoU adopted the Comprehensive National
Development Planning Framework (CNDPF) in
2007
• The MTR is enshrined in the CNDPF
• In line with CNDPF, the Uganda Vision 2040 was
produced.
• The Vision sets out the country’s long-term goal
of “A Transformed Ugandan Society from a
Peasant to a Modern and Prosperous Country
within 30 years”.
5/28/2014
3
Background Cont’d
• The Vision revolves around harnessing the abundant opportunities by strengthening the fundamentals.
Opportunities
• Agriculture, Tourism, Minerals, Industrialisation, Fresh Water bodies, Oil and gas, ICT Business, Abundant labour force, Geographical location and trade
Fundamentals
• Infrastructure for Energy, Transport, Water, ICT, and Oil and Gas; STEI, Land Use and Management, Urbanization, Human Capital Dev’t, Peace, Security and Defence etc)
• To operationalise the Vision, NDPI was produced and Mid-term review was done and is in the final year of implementation
5/28/2014 4
NDP1 MTR OBJECTIVE
Review the progress made in the first half
of the NDP Implementation
Make recommendations to improve
implementation of NDPI over its remaining
period
Inform preparation of the next NDP
2015/16 – 2019/20 (NDPII)
Overview of MTR Methodology
Desk review of government reports and
reports of Non-State Actors
Analysis of existing data
Fieldwork data collection from 3 districts
per region of Uganda (New, Old,
traditional, rural and urban
Methodology cont…
Meetings held with political and technical
heads of sectors and chairmen of key
committees of Parliament
Focus Group Discussion with non-state
actors (PSFU, UMA, NGO Forum, etc)
Meetings with Development Partners
Approach to the MTR
The review was based on six thematic
areas determined by the local context and
environment within which the NDPI is
being implemented.
NDP MTR Themes
The NDP MTR Themes are:
Policy and Strategic Direction
Institutional Framework
Results Framework
Political Economy
Economic Management
Development Partnership
Crosscutting studies undertaken to
inform MTR
Social Protection
Children
Environment
Gender
Human Rights
Democracy & Political Governance
PROGRESS ON NDPI
IMPLEMENTATION – MID-
TERM REVIEW
5/28
/201
4
11
Focus of NDPI
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Socio-Economic Transformation
Increasing household incomes and
promoting equity
Enhancing the availability and quality of gainful employment
Improving stock and quality of economic
infrastructure
Increasing access to quality social services
Promoting science, technology, innovation
and ICT to enhance competitiveness
Enhancing human capital development
Strengthening good governance, defence
and security
Promoting sustainable population and the
use of environmental and natural resources
EmploymentGrowth
3 Thematic Components
8 Objectives
7 Key Binding Constraints / Key Result Areas
Inadequate physical infrastructure
Inadequate supply and limited access to
critical production inputs
Low application of science and technology
Gender issues, negative attitudes, mind-set, cultural
practices, perceptions
Inadequate quantity and quality of human
resources
Inadequate finances and financial services
Weak public sector management and
administration
NDP has instilled the culture and
discipline of strategic planning and
budgeting
The NDP is informing all other planning
processes for Development
PROGRESS: Key Outcomes
PROGRESS: Selected Results
5.1
1.7
4.5 5.8
6.9 7.2 6.4
10.5
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Total GDP Growth Rate
Agriculture Sector Growth
Industry Sector Growth
Services Sector
Gro
wth
Rate
(p
erc
en
t)
Sector
Average (Actual , 2010/11-2012/13) Target
Nominal GDP increased from UGX 39,086b in
2010/11 to UGX 54,688b in 2012/13.
Growth across all sectors was
below target largely due to:
Poor agricultural production and
productivity
Global economic downturn
Slow implementation of NDP projects
for unlocking binding constraints
Tight Monetary policy at the end of
2011/12
PROGRESS: Selected Results (cont…)
Poverty declined from 24.5 per cent in
2009/10 to 19.8 per cent in 2012/13
representing about 7.7m people
Income inequality has remained high (Gini-
coefficient 0.43)
Income per capita increased from USD 506 to
about 600 in the Financial Year 2012/13 but
below the targeted USD 718
PROGRESS: Selected Results (cont…)
PROGRESS: Selected Results
(cont…)
15
.6
17
.2
16
.8
19
.9
21
.1
10
.1
10
.2
9.5
9.1
9.2
509 541
511
583 596
329 319 287
266 260
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
-
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
20
08
/9
20
09
/10
2010/1
1
2011/1
2
20
12
/13
Pe
rca
pit
a G
DP
(U
S $
)
GD
P (
US
$ B
n)
GDP Current Market Prices (US$ Bn) GDP Constant 2002 Prices (US$ Bn)
GDP Per Capita (Nominal)-US$ GDP Per Capita (Real)-US$
PROGRESS: Selected Results (cont…)
Life expectancy is 54 years ahead of the
NDP target of 51.3 years
Infant Mortality Rate reduced from 76 to
54 deaths per 1,000 live births
Maternal Mortality Rate increased to 438
(2011 UDHS) from 418 (2006 UDHS)
Literacy rate stands at 71% slightly below
NDP target of 76.9%
5/28/2014 18
PROGRESS: Selected Results
(cont…) Access to safe water slightly decreased from
74% in 2009/10 to 73% in 2012/13
Volume of paved roads increased from 4% to
16%, significantly ahead of NDP target (455km
of paved roads added , leaving a deficit of
645km).
Freight cargo by rail has also sig. increased
from 3.5% to 10%
Total energy capacity increased from 628
(2010/11) to 835 megawatts (2012/13), while
consumption increased from 60 to 64 kWh per
capita 19
Progress on the core projects There has been mixed progress on
implementation of these projects
Good progress has been made on the following:
Construction of five irrigation systems
Refinery development
Karuma HEP project (600MW)
Ayago HEP project
Isimba HEP Project (140MW
Slow Progress on standard gauge railway;
GMKA; science and technology parks; and ICT
business parks
KEY IMPLEMENTATION
CHALLENGES - MTR
5/28/2014 21
Gap between NDP sector financial
Figure 1: Comparison of GoU on Budget sector allocations for
MoFPED led MTEF and NDP allocations and MoFPED led MTEF
Limited alignment of NDP and
Budget Systems
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0
Agriculture
Land, Housing & Urban Dev.
Energy & Mineral Dev.
Works & Transport
Info. & Comms. Technology
Tourism, Trade & Industry
Education
Health
Water & Environment
Social Development
Security
Justice, Law & Order
Public Sector Management
Accountability
Legislature
Public Administration
Percentage Allocations
NDP
MTEF
Limited alignment of NDP and
Budget Systems (Cont…)
Misalignment between the NDP
priorities and Projects that appear in
the PIP
Limited alignment between SDPs,
LGDPs, Annual Plans and the NDP
5/28/2014
23
Limited Alignment - Recommendations
Need to synchronise all the major planning
and financing mechanisms
Need to ensure that all expenditure
management and reporting systems i.e.
OBT and GAPR are aligned to the planning
system
Need for an annual and 5-year Certificate Of
Compliance
5/28/2014 24
Slow development of new
innovative financing
instruments
Declining development
assistance
High cost of financing
Limited Financing of NDP
Domestic revenue is at 13.1 percent of GDP and projected
to increase to 14.2 per cent in 2014/15 but remains below
the target of 15.1 per cent.
Financing of the NDP
Financing of the NDP -
Recommendations
• Fast track domestic resource
mobilisation
• Fast track approval of Public-
Private Partnership Bill
• Fast track alternative financing
mechanisms
• Lower the cost of accessing capital
5/28/2014 27
Ineffective and unresponsive public
service system
Constrained access to land for
both private and public
development projects.
Corruption
Delays in procurement procedure
Weak Public Sector Management
Weak Public Sector Management -
Recommendations
• Strengthen Public Service Reforms
• Undertake Land Reforms to facilitate
access to land for infrastructure
investments
• Establish a National Value system and
national rallying ideology
• Review the procurement law to facilitate
faster procurement
5/28/2014 29
Focus and priority setting
There was limited focus and poor
sequencing of interventions
Policy direction was too broad and
lacked focus
Absence of an institutional
framework for the coordination of
national and cross-cutting policies
and strategies 5/28/2014
30
Focus and priority setting-
Recommendations
Set priorities of not more than six
priority strategic development objectives
that are outcome focused and cut
across multiple sectors
Focus strategic direction towards Quasi-market approach
Promoting Value addtion for increased export earnings and
employment
Enhance Uganda’s competitiveness
Rule of law, peace and security
5/28/2014 31
Sub-National Service Delivery
challenges
Low capacity for local
Governments to deliver services
due to
Limited and unreliable financial
resources from the Centre
Limited revenue generation capacity
Limited staff capacity
Absence of sufficient guidance from the
centre to local governments 5/28/2014
32
Strategic Direction of NDPII
• The MTR of NDPI revealed and recommended
the need for prioritisation of interventions so as to
maximise resource utilisation.
• NDPII’s strategic Direction is based on prioritising
key sectors with a greater multiplier effect that can
propel UG to middle-income status in the next 5
years.
• NDPII’s strategic direction is echoed in the Plan’s
Theme, Objectives and Priorities as illustrated in
the Prioritisation Framework
5/28/2014 33
Conclusion
NDP2 is fully guided by the MTR Recommendations
Major issues/concerns raised are being addressed
MTR once well done would have an influence on future
policy
5/28/2014 34
For God and my Country
5/28/2014 35