mpu april 2009. figure 1. repo rate with uncertainty bands per cent, quarterly averages source: the...
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Figure 1. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5
690%75%50%Repo rate
Source: The RiksbankNote. The uncertainty interval does not take into account the zero interest rate bound.
Figure 2. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
690%75%50%CPI
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. The broken line represents the main scenario forecast.
Figure 3. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
90%75%50%GDP
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 4. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised
terms, seasonally adjusted data
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
FebruaryApril
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 5. UnemployedPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 120
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Unemployment 16-64 yearUnemployment 15-74 yearAprilFebruary
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 6. Labour force and number of employed
Thousands, seasonally-adjusted data
3800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000
80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 123800
4000
4200
4400
4600
4800
5000Labour force 15-74 year
Labour force 16-64 year
Employed 15-74 year
Employed 16-64 year
Source: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 7. CPI Annual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5April
February
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 8. CPI, CPIF and CPIXAnnual percentage change
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5CPICPIFCPIF exclusive energy
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Figure 9. Repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
0
1
2
3
4
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
1
2
3
4
5
April
February
Source: The RiksbankNote. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 10. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4April
February
Source: The RiksbankNote. Real repo rate is calculated using the Riksbank’s one-year inflation forecasts.
Figure 11. TCW-weighted exchange rateIndex, 18.11.92 = 100
Source: The Riksbank
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
120
125
130
135
140
145
150
155
160April
February
Figure 12. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel, futures price
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120
20
40
60
80
100
120
140Oil price - Outcome
Futures, MPR February
Futures, average up to and including 15 April 2009
Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank
Figure 13. GDP for the USA and the euro area
Quarterly changes in per cent calculated in annualised terms, seasonally adjusted data
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
USA
Euro area
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Figure 14. Estimated gapsPercentage deviation from the HP trend
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
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5
6
80 85 90 95 00 05 10-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6GDP
Hours worked
Employment
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast.
Table 1. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change
2008 2009 2010 2011
CPI 3.4 -0.3 (-0.5) 1.3 (1.6) 3.2 (3.2)
CPIF 2.7 1.9 (1.6) 1.8 (1.6) 2.0 (1.8)
CPIF excl. energy 2.0 2.4 (2.2) 2.1 (1.8) 2.0 (1.7)
CPIX 2.5 1.5 (1.3) 1.5 (1.2) 1.7 (1.5)
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.
Table 2. Inflation, 12-month average Annual percentage change
Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12
CPI 0.2 (-0.1) 1.1 (1.4) 2.6 (2.9) 4.1 (3.3) CPIF 1.9 (1.9) 1.9 (1.7) 2.0 (1.8) 2.3 (1.9)
CPIF excl. energy 2.1 (2.0) 2.2 (1.9) 2.0 (1.7) 2.2 (1.9)
CPIX 1.5 (1.6) 1.7 (1.3) 1.7 (1.5) 2.0 (1.6)
Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 3. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average values
Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012
Repo rate 1.5 0.6 (0.9) 0.5 (0.8) 0.8 (1.6) 3.0 (3.2)
Source: The Riksbank
Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.
Table 4. Summary of financial forecasts, annual average
Per cent, unless otherwise specified
2008 2009 2010 2011
Repo rate 4.1 0.8 (1.0) 0.5 (0.9) 1.6 (2.2) 10-year rate 3.9 3.1 (2.9) 3.7 (3.6) 4.2 (4.1) Exchange rate, TCW-index, 18 November 1992=100
127.2 142.7 (140.0) 134.8 (134.5) 132.4 (131.9)
General government net lending* 2.5 (2.3) -2.9 (-1.7) -3.9 (-2.6) -2.6 (-1.3)
* Per cent of GDP
Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Table 5. International conditionsAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise
specified
GDP 2008 2009 2010 2011
USA 1.1 (1.3) -3.2 (-2.0) 0.7 (1.0) 3.0 (3.2) Japan -0.7 (0.0) -6.0 (-2.3) -0.3 (0.2) 1.6 (1.6)
Euro area 0.7 (0.8) -3.6 (-2.0) 0.1 (0.4) 1.6 (1.7)
OECD 0.9 (1.1) -3.6 (-1.9) 0.6 (0.9) 2.4 (2.5)
TCW-weighted 0.8 (0.9) -3.6 (-1.8) 0.1 (0.6) 1.9 (2.0)
World 3.2 (3.4) -1.1 (0.4) 2.1 (2.6) 3.8 (3.9)
CPI 2008 2009 2010 2011
USA 3.8 -0.8 (-0.5) 1.2 (1.8) 2.0 (2.2) Japan 1.4 -0.9 (0.0) -0.2 (0.5) 0.5 (1.0) Euro area (HICP) 3.3 0.3 (0.8) 1.0 (1.4) 1.6 (1.8) OECD 3.5 (3.6) 0.3 (0.8) 1.3 (1.7) 1.9 (2.0)
TCW-weighted 3.3 (3.2) 0.3 (0.8) 1.1 (1.5) 1.6 (1.8)
2008 2009 2010 2011
Crude oil price, USD/barrel Brent 97 52 (50) 63 (59) 68 (63) Swedish export market growth 1.2 (1.7) -9.5 (-3.0) -0.5 (1.6) 7.5 (5.4)
Sources: IMF, Intercontinental Exchange, OECD and the Riksbank
Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.
Table 6. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise
specified
2008 2009 2010 2011
Private consumption -0.2 (0.8) -1.2 (-0.6) 1.6 (1.9) 2.0 (2.5) Public consumption 1.3 (0.9) 0.4 (0.7) 0.6 (0.8) 0.7 (0.8) Gross fixed capital formation 3.5 (3.9) -10.3 (-5.4) -5.6 (-1.2) 5.5 (4.2) Inventory investment* -0.7 (-0.2) -1.1 (0.2) 0.7 (-0.2) 0.2 (0.1) Exports 1.7 (2.0) -14.2 (-6.0) 2.3 (3.2) 6.2 (6.4) Imports 3.0 (3.3) -14.3 (-5.6) 1.0 (1.4) 5.4 (5.3) GDP -0.2 (0.7) -4.5 (-1.6) 1.3 (1.7) 3.1 (3.2) GDP, calendar-adjusted -0.5 (0.4) -4.4 (-1.4) 1.0 (1.4) 3.1 (3.2) Current account (NR), % of GDP 8.2 (8.2) 8.1 (7.8) 8.5 (8.4) 8.9 (8.9)
*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points
Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankNote: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.
Table 7. Production and employment
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated
* Procent av arbetskraften
Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.
Sources: Employment Service, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
2008 2009 2010 2011
Population, aged 16-64 0.8 (0.8) 0.5 (0.5) 0.2 (0.2) 0.0 (0.0) GDP, calendar-adjusted -0.5 (0.4) -4.4 (-1.4) 1.0 (1.4) 3.1 (3.2) Number of hours worked, calendar-adjusted 0.9 (1.2) -2.6 (-2.1) -2.2 (-1.5) 0.5 (0.4) Employed (EU definition) 1.2 (1.2) -2.7 (-2.0) -2.9 (-1.6) -0.3 (0.0)
Labour force (EU definition) 1.2 (1.3) -0.1 (-0.1) -0.7 (-0.5) -0.3 (0.0) Unemployment , aged 15-74*(EU definition) 6.2 (6.2) 8.7 (8.0) 10.7 (9.1) 10.7 (9.0)
Table 8. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole
Annual percentage change, unless otherwise specified, calendar-adjusted data
2008 2009 2010 2011
Hourly wage, NMO 4.3 (4.3) 3.5 (3.5) 2.3 (2.9) 2.6 (3.1) Hourly wage, NA 4.8 (4.9) 3.6 (3.6) 2.4 (3.0) 2.8 (3.4) Employer’s contributions* -0.7 (-1.0) -0.1 (-0.1) 0.1 (0.1) 0.1 (0.1) Hourly labour cost, NA 4.2 (3.9) 3.5 (3.5) 2.4 (3.1) 2.9 (3.4)
Productivity -1.5 (-0.8) -1.8 (0.6) 3.2 (2.9) 2.6 (2.7)
Unit labour cost 5.7 (4.7) 5.4 (2.8) -0.8 (0.1) 0.2 (0.7)
* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points
Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank
Note: The assessment in MPR in April 2009 is stated in parenthesis.