mountain pine beetle in british columbia
DESCRIPTION
Mountain Pine Beetle In British Columbia. Climate Change and Fire Management Research Strategy Forum February 18, 2009. “ Mountain Pine Beetle – A Case Study of the Social, Economic and Environmental Impacts of Climate Change”. Fire Management & The Pine Portfolio. Area Of Attack. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Mountain Pine BeetleIn British Columbia
Climate Change and Fire Management Research Strategy Forum
February 18, 2009
“Mountain Pine Beetle – A Case Study of the Social, Economic and
Environmental Impacts of Climate Change”
Area Of Attack
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1999 2007
Mil
lio
ns
of
Hec
tare
s
164,567
• Last “Killing Winter” Was 1997/98
• Old + Mature Pine @ Contact: Est. 0.4 Billion m3
• Old + Mature Pine @ 1997:Est. 1.2 Billion m3
• 24% of 1.2 Billion m3:Est. 0.3 Billion m3
Fire Management & The Pine Portfolio
1) Fire suppression conserved the mature timber legacy2) Second growth practices allowed us to benefit from legacy at a higher rate of LRSY:• Tree improvement and Class A seed• Better site preparation• Minimal regeneration delay• Better density control• Forest fertilisation
One Problem With Paradigm: Climate Change
Forest Management Paradigm To Optimise LRSY
Economic Issues
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
Timber Supply Drives Economic ImpactTimber Supply
Loss Approximation
Timber Supply Forecast
Economic Opportunity In Dead Pine
Supply Improves
Accelerated Pine Salvage While Suitable For Sawmills
Supply Level Pre-EpidemicSupply Level Post-Epidemic
+- 10 million m3/Year
Forest Sector & The Economy
• Exports bring money into BC to pay for imports and consumption by population
• Called the ‘Economic Base’
• Interior industry is 19% of provincial base
• 40,000 direct jobs, high average salary
• $22,000 tax revenue/employee vs. $4000 average for other employees (2005)
Year 1 Year 2-3 Year ‘X’
• Amount and value of wood product declines with time – 17.5% in FII L&M Lumber study
• So does stumpage
Crown Revenues
Census Population Change % 1991-2006
50.4
%
45.1
%
25.3
%25
.2%
20.3
%
19.2
%
17.1
%
9.4%
6.0%
1.9%
1.7%
-0.3
%
-1.4
%-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
SLRD
CORD
BCNO
RD
CSRD
OSRD
TNRD
RDCK
RDEKCRD
FFGRD
BNRD
RDKB
Regional Districts
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Sub-Regional Economic Growth
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mackenzie Morice Fort St. James Lakes Cariboo/Chilcotin Prince George Lillooet West Kootenay Kamloops Okanagan-Shuswap
Forestry Other Industry Public Sector Transfers & Non-Empl. Income
Sub-Regional Economic Diversity
Rural Economic Transition
Risk to Economy of Boreal Forest• Canada, BC & Alberta Collaborating
• ‘Suppression’ Zone Trans-border
• Conditions Harsh For Beetle?
Lodgepole Pine
Jack Pine
Mountain pine beetle
Source: NRCan/CFS/PFC
No climate or biological barriers to MPB
Environmental Issues
Forest Composition & Carbon Storage
Hydrology of Watersheds
Net Effects on Some RiversPossibilities:
• More water yield
• Higher peak flows
• Quicker snow melt
• Earlier snow melt
• Increased ‘flashiness’
• Stream morphology
Actual Outcomes Depend On Intricate Relationships Between Snow Accumulations, Weather Events and Spring
Melt Rates
Wildlife Habitat-’Interior’ Birds-Cold Water Fish-Warm Water Fish-Ungulates
Visuals Grasslands and Range
Environmental Issues
Costs To Restore Resources, Data
Reforestation Resource Inventory Ecosystems
Social Issues
Community Resilience & Sustainability
Ability To Sustain:
• Industrial Tax Base
• Core Infrastructure
• Amenities and Services
• First Nations Culture
• Retired and Elderly Population
• Economic Growth
Public Safety
Recreation Sites Air Quality
Industrial Traffic
Worker Safety
New Preliminary Advice To Fire Crews:
• More crowning, even when calm
• Radiant heat ignites red foliage at > distance
• More ‘fire brands’, > spot fires
• “Black” zones not safe unless both surface and crown burned
Urban Interface Hazard and Risk
• “Fuel Management”
• Local Governments
• First Nations Govt’s
• 460,000 hectares at issue
……………………………………………………………………………………………..
Provincial Response Strategy
A ‘Triple Bottom Line’ StrategyBC MOUNTAIN PINE BEETLE ACTION PLAN
• Economic sustainability for communities
• Recover the value of dead timber
• Restore Ecosystems
• Restore Forest Resources Of Other Kinds
• Conserve Society’s Values In Land Use Plans
• Public Safety, Health, Infrastructure
ECONOMY ENVIRONMENT SOCIETY
Co-ordinated, effective planning and implementation
END
www.gov.bc.ca/pinebeetle