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Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, Inc. SAE INTERNATIONAL

Motor Vehicle Emissions, Fuels and Energy

beyond 2030 and towards 2050

Yasuhiro DAISHO

Professor Emeritus

Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan

G20 Transport Task Meeting October 28-31, 2019


“How should automotive power systems be towards 2050?”

(Future Power Systems Committee, JSAE, March, 2016) 1/4

(1) The future combination of the IC engine and oil

❑Oil is the best fuel for IC engines used in motor vehicles. The value of oil will depend on its availability and/or the energy and environmental policies made by some countries in in the future. We must be ready for decreased oil supply and its increased prices.

❑Ultimately high engine efficiency should be pursued towards 2030 and beyond.

❑The use of the following alternative fuels will substantially be limited due to both their supply amounts and costs.

・Bio-fuels ・Natural gas ・CTL, GTL, BTL・Hydrogen ・Ammonia ・e-fuel, etc

2Y. Daisho, Waseda University




(2) Alternative power systems and oil free energy

❑EVs will be a more realistic alternative because of diversified electricity sources and inexpensive recharging stations. EVs will mainly be used for short and medium range drives due to limited battery energy densities and high battery costs.

❑Sales of FCVs will be limited even towards 2050 due to difficulties with reducing vehicle and hydrogen costs, producing renewable hydrogen and locating hydrogen stations.





(3) Power systems for mid and long term

❑Plug-in HVs are one of the most realistic options in place

of IC engine vehicles and HVs. This is because the

transitions from oil to electricity and/or hydrogen should

be conducted smoothly taking into account the fact that

ordinary vehicle’s lifetime is ten to fifteen years.

❑The use of renewable electricity and hydrogen must be

increased for these transitions along with improving the

battery’s performance, locating

recharging/refueling stations and

reducing the entire costs. The

transitions will take about two

decades to come.

(4) Issues on future mobility 4Y. Daisho, Waseda University




(4) Issues on future mobility

❑To mitigate the shortage of energy and global warming,

not only disseminating next generation vehicles but also

realizing a sustainable mobility society utilizing

renewables will be necessary.

❑Motorized countries should

support motorizing countries

by providing successful

policies and technologies

based on

“Mobility Innovations.”



SectorReference year

2013 （2005）2030 ／

Reduction % 2013 （2005）

Industry 429 (457) 401 ／ △6.5 (△12.3)

Business, etc. 279 (239) 168 ／ △39.8 (△29.7)

Household 201 (180) 122 ／ △39.3 (△32.2)

Transportation 225 (240) 163 ／ △27.6 (△32.1)

Energy Conversion 101 (104) 73 ／ △27.7 (△29.8)

Total 1,235 (1,219) 927 ／ △24.9 (△24.0)

[ Unit: Million t-ＣＯ２ ]

Energy Related CO2 Emission Reductions in 2030

for the Paris Agreement, Japan, 2015



Country Year km/L L/100 kmCO2

g/kmNote

Japan2020

(2030)

22.1

(25.4)

4.52

(3.94)

105

(91.4)( ): based on WLTC

EU**2021

(2030)

24.4

(38.6)

4.10

(2.59)

95

(60)( ): 37.5% reduction

from the 2021 level

USA*** 2025 22.5 4.44 103 abolished?

China2020

(2025)

19.8

(25.0)

5.05

(4.00)

117

(93)with “New Energy

Vehicle Program”

India 2021 20.5 4.88 113

Comparison of LDV Fuel Economy Standards

based on NEDC, ICCT 2015

NEDC: New European Driving Cycle

ICCT: The International Council on Clean Transportation

( ): Proposed



Vehicle Fuel Economy Standards (average) in Japan

8

☆Standards in 2015 required 12% fuel

economy improvement compared to

the level in 2002.

☆Well-to-Wheel fuel economy relative to

gasoline is supposed to be evaluated

for EVs and plug-in hybrids in 2030.

Y. Daisho, Waseda University


SIP Program: Solutions to Achieve a 50% Brake

Thermal Efficiency in Passenger Car Engines

✓Reducing mechanical losses by 50%

✓Utilizing exhaust gas energy・Increasing turbocharging efficiency・Using a thermoelectric device

✓Enhancing indicated work by

improving combustion in both engines

≪Energy Balance≫

50%

（Target）38.5～40.8%

20%

35%

4%

28～30％

16～18％

2%

2%

2%

✓Reducing heat losses by improving combustion

Exhaust losses

Cooling losses

Brake work

Mechanical losses

✓Achieved Brake Thermal Efficiency:

・Gasoline engines: 38.5% ⇒ 51.5%

・Diesel engines : 40.8% ⇒ 50.1%

“Innovative Combustion Technologies” in the Strategic Innovation Program

(SIP) sponsored by the government in FY2014-2018

☆The high efficiency engine is essential

for increasing hybrids’ fuel economy.



The Similar Programs are undertaken

in the USA and the EU.



Oxidizing HCs,

CO and SOF

2NO＋O2

→2NO2

4NO+4NH3+O2

→4N2+6H2O (1)

6NO2+8NH3

→7N2+12H2O (2)

NO+NO2+2NH3

→2N2+3H2O (3)

Oxidizing

slipping NH3

Urea solution （32.5%） 3-7% of the fuel

NH3 formation reaction：(NH2 )2CO+H2O → 6NH3+CO2

2NO2＋C

→CO2＋2NO

(>250℃)

Engine exhaust

DOC CR-DPFSCR (selective

catalytic reductionDOC

A Typical Diesel Aftertreatment System

for Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles


<Issues> ❑How to reduce NOx and PM by controlling both combustion and

urea solution supply for transient driving cycles?

❑Improving low temperature conversion efficiency

❑Optimizing the quantity of urea supply ❑Compactness

❑Selection of the catalysts ❑Reducing NH3 and N2O emissions

❑Ensuring reliability and durability ❏Advanced OBD necessary


Recent EVs Fuel Cell Vehicles

Hybrid Vehicles

Variations of Electrified Vehicles

Advanced Technologies

Batteries, Electronic Devices, Motors,

Lightweight Materials, and Engines

EVs in 1970s to 1990s

Many vehicles will be

hybridized towards

2030.



Efficiencies of IC Engines and a Fuel Cell

Relative Load

Fuel Cell System

60% 70% (Hydrogen base)

Diesel Engine

40-45% → 50-55%

Gasoline Engine35-40% 45-50%

Low efficiencies at part loads

must be improved.

：Future Target

Electric Motor >90% （peak）●

Rela

tive N

et

Effic

iency



M: Motor G: GeneratorC/I: Controller / InverterB: Battery unit T: Transmission C：ClutchPs: Power splitterPi: Plug-in

: Drive / Power generation<Parallel (Mild)> 【20-50%】

<Series/Parallel (Full)> 【50-100%】<Series （Full）> 【50-100%】

B

E

B C/I

<Hybrid type> 【Improved fuel economy, %】

～～

E G

Pi

Ps

G

M/GC/I

Pi

M/G

: Regeneration

E

B

C

～

M/G T

C/I

Pi

C

Three Typical Hybrid Systems

Including 48V mild systems

FCVs have the similar systems



Future Passenger Car Fuel Economy Targets

by Y. Daisho

2020 2030 2040 2050

50

40

30

20

10

0

100

80

60

40

20

0

(20.3km/L) 3%4%5%

Annual improvement

116 77.4 58.0 46.4 CO2 ： g/km

Ave

rag

e F

ue

l E

co

no

my,

km

/L

Rela

tive F

uel C

onsum

ption, %

Annual improvement: 5%



100005

10005

1005

105

1

Pow

er

den

sity

W/k

g

0.1 5 1 5 10 5 100 5 1000

Energy Density Wh/kg

Electric Double Layer

Capacitor

Li-ion

Battery

Lead

Acid

Battery

Capacitor

Ni-MH

Battery Fuel Cell

2010～2030

High reliability and

durability and low cost

are essential.

Li, Co, Mｎ, Ni,

Graphite, etc.

⇒

Metal Air Battery?All-solid-

state Battery?

After 2030⇒

（Prof. T. Osaka,

Waseda Univ.)

Devices for Storing Electricity



Type TermDrive

range, km

Package

Mass, kｇCapacity,

kWhCost, ¥

PHV 2020～30 60 50 10 200,000

EV 2040～50 700 80 56 260,000

Source: Roadmaps on Developing Secondary Batteries for Motor

Vehicles 2013 (Aug, 2013, Reviewed in Jun, 2018)

Mid and Long Term Targetsfor Developing Batteries for PHVs and EVs

< Advanced Battery Cells in Major Countries >

Type TermCell Energy density，

Wh/kg

Present Li-ion battery 2015～19 ～150

Advanced Li-ion battery 2019～24 235～285

All solid-state Li-ion battery 2024～32 250～400

Innovative battery 2030～ 500～

< NEDO’s Roadmap, Japan >

Source: METI 201817Y. Daisho, Waseda University


❏The effect of stopping all nuclear power stations in

March 2011 on increased CO2 emissions in Japan

・340g/kWh in 2010

・610g/kWh（1.8 times） in 2014 (average)

❏Revised CHADEMO standards for rapid EV recharging,

announced in March 2017

・Increasing power capacity for Evs and reducing

recharging: 50 kW ⇒ 150kW (2017) ⇒ 350kW (2020)

・Issues on how to manage electricity

supply and demand for transportation,

business and household sectors

✓Smart grid, demand response

VPP and V2X systems are necessary.

✓Power management systems are

also necessary to efficiently generate,

store and distribute electricity.

50kw ⇒150kw

30 min

10 min

Reduced

recharging time

Issues on Rapid Recharging Systems

for EVs and PHEVs in Japan



9.6

29.3

25.0

28.6

10.7

14.9

43.2

30.3

22-24

27

26

20-22

2010 2013 2016 2030

7.5

1.0

3?

Fossil

fuels?

?

2050

Geothermal

1.0-1.1

Wind 1.7

Biomass

3.7-4.6

Solar

7.0

Hydraulic

8.8-9.2

14.5

9.3

42.2

32.3

1.7

(unit: %)

Nuclear

Coal

LNG

Oil

Renewables

Fossi

l

Fuels

☆Reducing the consumption of fossil fuels in electric power plants is

effective to decrease CO2 emission from all sectors.

Electricity Sources Proposed for the Paris Agreement

by METI, Japan, 2015, 2018



Options for Decarbonizing Electricity and Hydrogen

❑ Renewables

Solar

Wind

Geothermal

Hydraulic

Biomass

Electric

Vehicle

Plug-in

Hybrid

Fuel Cell

Vehicle

❑ Nuclear Power

Electricity

Hydrogen

☆ Hydrogen is produced mainly from fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas.

☆ Carbon-free hydrogen must be realized by 2040 taking into account

production, transportation, storage and supply processes. (Japan)

☆ Overall LCA and cost evaluation should be made on these fuels and energy.

(Water

Pyrolysis)

・Recharging station

・Electricity management

・Hydrogen handling, storage and supply

Hybrid &

IC Engine

Vehicles

(Water Electrolysis) (Fuel Cell)



Gasoline vehicle

Hybrid

↑ Mirai (natural gas⇒H2)

Mirai (renewable H2)

t-CO2e

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0Production 30,000 60,000 90,000 120,000 150,000 Scrappage

Distance km

Mirai LCA Report

Toyota, June, 2015

NEDC mode

A Comparison of CO2 Emissions based on LCA



Vehicle type 2017（data） 2020 2030

Conventional vehicles 63.97% 50～80% 30～50%

Next generation vehicles 36.02% 20～50% 50～70%

HEV 31.2% 20～30% 30～40%

EV / PHEV 0.41 / 0.82% 15～20% 20～30%

FCV 0.02% ～1% ～3%

Clean diesel 3.52% ～5% 5 ～10%

（A Strategic Research Committee for Next Generation

Vehicles, METI, 2010, The following Committee, METI, 2018）

Market Share Targets for Passenger Cars

in 2020-2030 proposed by METI, Japan

❑4.386 million passenger cars were sold in Japan, in 2017.

❑Percent market share of passenger cars is lower than 5%

in other major countries in 2017 as follows. ・USA： 4.0%

・Germany: 3.0% ・France: 4.8% ・China: 3.0% ・India： 0.03%



Comparison of Middle Class Next Generation

Passenger Cars Sold in Japan

Vehicle type Battery capacity

kWh

Relative

vehicle mass

Relative

fuel economy

Gasoline（Fuel: 400-500）

（1.0）（1.0）

Diesel 1.06 1.15～1.20

HV 1～2 1.05～1.15 1.20～1.90

PHV 10～20 1.15～1.20 1.8

BEV 20～60 1.20～1.30 3～4**

FCV 1～2 (H2: 150-170) 1.30～1.40 1.8～2.5**

* : Relative to gasoline vehicle

**: Converted based on energy consumption (Wh/km)



Comparison of Electrified Vehicles

ICE Vehicle

(Baseline)

20

Hybrids Plug-in

hybrids

Fuel cell

vehicles

Electric

vehicles

Can electricity and

hydrogen be fully

renewable? 100

0

50

CO

2 re

duction

%

Renewables: 40%



Rela

tive I

mport

ance

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Utilizing Alternatives to Oil

Mitigating Global Warming

Controlling Air Pollution

Motorized Countries Motorizing Countries

Relative Importance of Policy Making and R&D

for Next Generation Vehicles and Fuels/Energy



Issues for Developing and Disseminating

Next Generation Vehicles

❑Consistent efforts for sustainable mobility enabling environmental

protection, energy security, affordability and convenience❑Continued governmental support and collaboration between industry,

academia and government for developing advanced mobility technologies❑Strengthening global competitiveness for motor vehicle-related

technologies❑Developing and disseminating technologies related to low-carbon

renewable fuels and energy such as electricity, hydrogen etc. ❑Creating new environmentally friendly car lifestyles❑Developing technologies related to ITS，IT, ICT and AI for our future

mobility ❑Technological and policy contributions to motorizing countries and areas

Market

Technology Policy

Industry

Academia Government


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