mortgage monitor - black knight, inc. › wp-content › uploads › 2020 › ...the full market,...

MARCH 2020 REPORT

MORTGAGE MONITOR

https://www.blackknightinc.com/data-reports/?report-type=mortgage-monitor&report-year=2018

https://www.blackknightinc.com/

Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 2Confidential, Proprietary and/or Trade Secret TM SM ® Trademark(s) of Black Knight IP Holding Company, LLC, and/or an affiliate. © 2020 Black Knight Financial Technology Solutions, LLC. All Rights Reserved.

Each month, the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor looks at a variety of issues related to the mortgage finance and housing industries.

This month, as always, we begin with a review of some of the high-level mortgage performance statistics reported in our most recent First Look report, with an update on delinquency, foreclosure and prepayment trends. Given the urgency and fast-changing nature of the impact COVID-19 is having on the mortgage market, Black Knight has begun to aggregate and distribute mortgage performance data on a daily basis as part of its McDash Flash dataset. We leverage this data to take a look at the early impacts of COVID-19 on mortgage performance and forbearance volumes, including a forward look at potential forbearance volumes in the coming months.

Next, we take a closer look at recent interest rate turmoil, the underlying market drivers behind it and its overarching impact on refinance incentive in recent weeks. We pull in pipeline metrics from Black Knight’s Compass Analytics to see the impact the rate situation is having on refinance rate locks. Finally, we explore the impacts COVID-19 is having on the housing market by way of a number of near-real-time metrics that shine light on how COVID-19 is impacting supply and demand in the housing market. In doing so, we leverage daily home price and listing information from Black Knight’s Collateral Analytics group and pipeline metrics on purchase loan locks from Compass Analytics.

In producing the Mortgage Monitor, Black Knight’s Data & Analytics division aggregates, analyzes and reports upon the most recently available data from the company’s vast mortgage and housing related data assets. Information is gathered from the McDash loan-level mortgage performance dataset, the Black Knight HPI and the company’s robust public property records database covering 99.9% of the U.S. population. For more information on gaining access to Black Knight’s data assets, please call 844-474-2537 or email [email protected].

MARCH 2020 OVERVIEW

MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH FIRST LOOK RELEASE

MCDASH FLASH: EARLY COVID-19 IMPACTS

INTEREST RATE AND PREPAYMENT ACTIVITY

COVID-19 IMPACT ON THE HOUSING MARKET

APPENDIX

DISCLOSURES

DEFINITIONS

3

4

7

10

13

16

17

CONTENTS




https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-march-2020-mortgage-data/

https://www.blackknightinc.com/what-we-do/data-services/


mailto:mortgage.monitor%40bkfs.com?subject=

https://twitter.com/black_knightinc?lang=en

https://www.linkedin.com/company/blackknight/



MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 3

Here we have an overview of findings from Black Knight’s ‘First Look’ at March mortgage performance data. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

MARCH 2020 FIRST LOOK RELEASE

It’s important to note that, for the purposes of the First Look, Mortgage Monitor and other reports that Black Knight issues, homeowners in forbearance plans will be counted as a subset of delinquency numbers. They should not, however, be reported as delinquent to credit bureaus by their servicers.

MARCH OVERVIEW STATS

CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE

March is typically the strongest month for mortgage performance

In an early sign of COVID-19’s impact, March delinquencies increased for

the first time this century

PREPAYMENT RATE

Prepayments jumped in March, driven by record-low 30-year mortgage rates

Stay-at-home orders, economic uncertainty and unemployment are all likely to impact these numbers

moving forward

FORECLOSURE STARTS

At just 27,600 for the month, foreclosure starts fell to their lowest level on record

With COVID-19-related moratoriums curtailing foreclosure inflows, a new

record low is likely next month as well

14.55%39.68%3.3%



https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-first-look-at-march-2020-mortgage-data/


https://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/BKI_MM_Mar2020_Chart01.pdf




MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 4

Given the urgency and fast-changing nature of the impact COVID-19 is having on the mortgage market, Black Knight has begun to aggregate and distribute mortgage performance data on a daily basis. Here we leverage that data to take a look at the early impacts of COVID-19 on mortgage performance and forbearance volumes, including a forward look at potential forbearance volumes in the coming months. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s original McDash loan-level mortgage performance database as well as the new, daily McDash Flash data set. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

MARCH 2020 MCDASH FLASH: EARLY COVID-19 IMPACTS

» In what’s typically the strongest month of the year for mortgage performance, March delinquencies rose by 3.33%

» This the first March increase since the turn of the century – including the years of the Great Recession, and an early sign of COVID-19’s impact on the market

» In fact, March has historically seen delinquencies fall by 10% on average

» Both the national foreclosure and 90-day delinquency rates set new record lows in March, a lingering reminder of the strength of the mortgage market heading into the pandemic

» At just 27,600 for the month, foreclosure starts also fell to their lowest level on record, as COVID-19-related moratoriums began to impact foreclosure inflows

» Going forward, the millions of homeowners who have since entered into forbearance will be counted as past due for tracking purposes, but should not be reported as such to the credit bureaus by their servicers

3.39%4.03%

2.00%

3.00%

4.00%

5.00%

6.00%

7.00%

8.00%

9.00%

10.00%

11.00%

2000

-03

2001

-03

2002

-03

2003

-03

2004

-03

2005

-03

2006

-03

2007

-03

2008

-03

2009

-03

2010

-03

2011

-03

2012

-03

2013

-03

2014

-03

2015

-03

2016

-03

2017

-03

2018

-03

2019

-03

2020

-03

NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGESDelinquency Rate 2000-2005 Average Record Low

NATIONAL DELINQUENCY RATE – FIRST LIEN MORTGAGES

-2.9

%

-2.0

%

-9.9

%

+3.2

%

+0.7

% +2.9

%

+0.6

%

-0.2

%

+5.1

%

-2.1

%

+4.4

%

+1.6

%

-5.3

7%

+1.9

5%

+3.3

3%

-14%

-9%

-4%

1%

6%

Janu

ary

Febr

uary

Mar

ch

Apr

il

May

June

July

Aug

ust

Sep

tem

ber

Oct

ober

Nov

embe

r

Dec

embe

r

AVERAGE MONTHLY CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE(SINCE JANUARY 2000)

Average Monthly Change 2020 Monthly Change

AVERAGE MONTHLY CHANGE IN DELINQUENCY RATE(SINCE JANUARY 2000)







MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 5

» Based on observations from Black Knight’s McDash Flash dataset extrapolated to estimate the full market, more than 3.8M mortgage holders – 7.3% of the total first lien market – have already entered into forbearance plans as of April 30

» FHA/VA loans have the highest forbearance rates by investor class at 10.5% (1.27M), while the 1.7M (6.1%) GSE mortgages in forbearance represent the largest volume

» Despite not being mandated by the CARES act, some 6.7% (863K) of portfolio held and/or private labeled security loans are also under forbearance

» The $841B in UPB currently under forbearance is significantly impacting servicer cash flows

» GSE mortgages alone require an estimated $1.9B/month in principal and interest (P&I) payments to be advanced to securities-holders

» Under the FHFA’s new four month limit on advance payments, that equates to more than $7.5B in advances

» While forbearance rates are higher among GNMA-securitized loans, especially among FHA loans, aggregate monthly advance volumes are lower

» Roughly $1.1B/month in P&I advances are needed for FHA/VA loans in forbearance, plus another $480M in monthly taxes and insurance (T&I) payments hang in the balance as well

Fannie & Freddie FHA & VA Other** Total

Average Monthly P&I Payment* $1,115 $903 $1,726 $1,216

Average Monthly T&I Payment* $440 $384 $557 $447

Aggregate Monthly P&I Payment* $31.1B $10.9B $22.3B $64.9B

Aggregate Monthly T&I Payment* $12.3B $4.6B $7.2B $23.7B

Est. Monthly P&I Advances on Active Forbearance Plans*

$1.9B $1.1B $1.5B $4.7B

Est. Monthly T&I Advances on Active Forbearance Plans*

$.7B $.5B $.5B $1.7B

ESTIMATED MONTHLY ADVANCES ON ACTIVE FORBEARANCE PLANS

As of date*Figures in this report are based on observations from Black Knight's McDash Flash data set and are extrapolated to estimate the full mortgage market**Other category include held in portfolios, private labeled securities, or by other entities

Fannie & Freddie FHA & VA Other** Total

Loans in Forbearance* 1,699,000 1,268,000 863,000 3,853,000

UPB of Loans in Forbearance ($Bil)* $372 $232 $236 $841

Share of Loans in Forbearance* 6.1% 10.5% 6.7% 7.3%

Active Loan Count (Mil)* 27.9 12.1 12.9 53.0

As of date*Figures in this report are based on observations from Black Knight's McDash Flash data set and are extrapolated to estimate the full mortgage market**Other category include held in portfolios, private labeled securities, or by other entities


As of date *Figures in this report are based on observations from Black Knight's McDash Flash data set and are extrapolated to estimate the full mortgage market **Other category include held in portfolios, private labeled securities, or by other entities

As of date *Figures in this report are based on observations from Black Knight's McDash Flash data set and are extrapolated to estimate the full mortgage market **Other category include held in portfolios, private labeled securities, or by other entities






MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 6

» After surging at the beginning of April and then rising again near the 15th – when late fees are typically charged on past due payments – the number of new forbearance requests has declined in recent weeks

» While total forbearance volumes continue to mount, daily inflow has begun to taper off

» Between 53,000 and 102,000 new plans have been put into place over each of the last nine days, less than a quarter of levels seen earlier in April

» An open question is what requests will look like at the beginning of May – when the next round of mortgage payments become due, and with 30 million Americans newly unemployed

» As May 1 mortgage payment due dates approach, Black Knight will continue to monitor any potential second wave

» In an optimistic scenario in which daily forbearance volumes continue to decline by 10% per day, the number of forbearances could peak at approximately 4.5M in the coming months

» Should current forbearance volumes hold steady through mid-June, more than 8M homeowners could enter into forbearance plans, representing 16% or more of all mortgages

» If that adverse scenario holds true, servicers would be required to advance $4 billion in monthly principal and interest payments on GSE mortgages alone

» Even under the FHFA’s recent four-month limit on principal and interest (P&I advances), servicers would still be bound to make $16 billion in advance payments over that time span

*Figures in this report are based on observations from Black Knight’s McDash Flash data set and are extrapolated to estimate the full mortgage market

(1) Optimistic scenario rolls forward the average daily increase in forbearance plans observed to date, with a 10% daily decline moving forward(2) Midpoint is the average of the Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios(3) Pessimistic scenario rolls forward the average daily increase in forbearance plans observed to date, with a 10% daily decline beginning on June 15th

Mil1 Mil2 Mil3 Mil4 Mil5 Mil6 Mil7 Mil8 Mil9 Mil

10 Mil

Apr-0

3Ap

r-07

Apr-0

9Ap

r-13

Apr-1

5Ap

r-17

Apr-2

1Ap

r-23

Apr-2

7Ap

r-29

May

-01

May

-05

May

-07

May

-11

May

-13

May

-15

May

-19

May

-21

May

-25

May

-27

May

-29

Jun-

02Ju

n-04

Jun-

08Ju

n-10

Jun-

12Ju

n-16

Jun-

18Ju

n-22

Jun-

24Ju

n-26

Jun-

30

ACTIVE FORBEARANCE PLAN – FORWARD-LOOKING EXAMPLE SCENARIOSActual Optimistic Pessimistic Midpoint

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

Apr-06 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15 Apr-16 Apr-17 Apr-20 Apr-21 Apr-22 Apr-23 Apr-24 Apr-27 Apr-28 Apr-29 Apr-30

DAILY CHANGE IN ACTIVE FORBEARANCE COUNT Fannie/Freddie FHA/VA Other

Source: McDash Flash

DAILY CHANGE IN ACTIVE FORBEARANCE COUNT ACTIVE FORBEARANCE PLAN – FORWARD-LOOKING EXAMPLES SCENARIOS


*Figures in this report are based on observations from Black Knight's McDash Flash data set and are extrapolated to estimate the full mortgage market (1) Optimistic scenario rolls forward the average daily increase in forbearance plans observed to date, with a 10% daily decline moving forward (2) Midpoint is the average of the Optimistic and Pessimistic scenarios (3) Pessimistic scenario rolls forward the average daily increase in forbearance plans observed to date, with a 10% daily decline beginning on June 15thSource: McDash Flash






MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 7

Next, we take a closer look at recent interest rate turmoil, the underlying market drivers behind it and their overarching impact on refinance incentive in recent weeks. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database and pipeline metrics from its Compass Analytics division. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

MARCH 2020 INTEREST RATE AND PREPAYMENT ACTIVITY

» March’s 54BPS single-month increase in prepayment activity was the largest single-month surge in 15 years

» In fact, at 1.89%, March’s single-month mortality (SMM) rate was the highest overall prepay speed in nearly seven years

» GSE loans saw the largest single-month increase at +45% M/M, followed by portfolio-held loans (+38%) and FHA/VA loans (+28%)

» Loans originated in 2016 and 2017 both saw more than 50% increases in prepayment activity, with a 37% increase among 2018 vintage loans

» More seasoned mortgages were less impacted, with a 10% increase seen among pre-recession loans

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

2008

-03

2009

-03

2010

-03

2011

-03

2012

-03

2013

-03

2014

-03

2015

-03

2016

-03

2017

-03

2018

-03

2019

-03

2020

-03

PREPAYMENT RATE (SMM) BY INVESTOR / PRODUCTGSE FHA/VA Portfolio Private Securities Total Market Prepayments jumped by nearly 40% month-

over-month in March, driven by a surge in refinance activity as 30-year rates fell to record lows

PREPAYMENT RATE (SMM) BY INVESTOR / PRODUCT






MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 8


» While March prepayment activity surged to a near seven-year high, that was prior to the fallout from COVID-19 and the associated rise in unemployment and economic uncertainty

» After rising briefly in late March, 30-year interest rates fell back near record lows by mid-April

» However, rate lock data – a leading indicator of refinance and prepayment activity – suggests a steep decline in demand for refinancing

» As of April 13, the average conventional 30-year note rate fell below 3.3% according to Black Knight’s Compass Analytics data – roughly equivalent to where it was in early March – but refinance-related rate locks saw little movement

» In fact, refi locks were nearly 80% below their early-March peaks

» While some share of the 14.2M refinance candidates at the time may have been among the approximately 30M newly unemployed – hindering their ability to qualify for a refinance – that doesn’t seem to explain a lack of rate lock activity at this level

» The degree to which refinance incentive and locks have become disjointed is making it increasingly challenging for servicers/investors to model prepayment speeds and accurately assess attrition risk

3.00%

3.25%

3.50%

3.75%

4.00%

4.25%

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Jan-

02Ja

n-04

Jan-

06Ja

n-08

Jan-

10Ja

n-12

Jan-

14Ja

n-16

Jan-

18Ja

n-20

Jan-

22Ja

n-24

Jan-

26Ja

n-28

Jan-

30Fe

b-01

Feb-

03Fe

b-05

Feb-

07Fe

b-09

Feb-

11Fe

b-13

Feb-

15Fe

b-17

Feb-

19Fe

b-21

Feb-

23Fe

b-25

Feb-

27Fe

b-29

Mar

-02

Mar

-04

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-24

Mar

-26

Mar

-28

Mar

-30

Apr

-01

Apr

-03

Apr

-05

Apr

-07

Apr

-09

Apr

-11

Apr

-13

Apr

-15

REFINANCE RATE LOCKS VS. 30-YEAR RATESRefinance Rate Locks (Indexed to 2020 Peak) Conventional 30-Year Average Note Rate (Right Axis)

Source: Compass Analytics

2.80%

3.00%

3.20%

3.40%

3.60%

3.80%

4.00%

4.20%

4.40%

4.60%

.0M

2.0M

4.0M

6.0M

8.0M

10.0M

12.0M

14.0M

16.0M

Jan-

03

Jan-

13

Jan-

22

Jan-

30

Feb-

07

Feb-

18

Feb-

26

Mar

-05

Mar

-13

Mar

-23

Mar

-31

Apr

-08

Apr

-17

Apr

-23

NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES ON EACH DAY OF 2020Refinance Candidates 30-Year FRM Rate – Mortgage News Daily

Refinance Candidates: Homeowners current on their mortgage with 720+ credit scores and >= 20% equity in their home that could reduce their interest rate by 0.75% or more by refinancing into a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate

NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES ON EACH DAY OF 2020 REFINANCE RATE LOCKS VS. 30-YEAR RATES

Refinance Candidates: Homeowners current on their mortgage with 720+ credit scores and >= 20% equity in their home that could reduce their interest rate by 0.75% or more by refinancing into a 30-year fixed rate mortgage at the prevailing interest rate Source: Compass Analytics






MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 9


» Quantitative easing (QE) efforts by the Federal Reserve appear to have calmed the volatility seen in secondary market rate offerings early on in the COVID-19 pandemic

» Still, lender spreads have climbed from 1.38% on average in January/February to an average of 1.95% since late March

» Such spread increases have kept homeowners from seeing the full impact of falling secondary market rates

» Lenders are still sitting on a full pipeline of locks from the early March wave in applications and are heavily focused on closing the applications they have

» There is also the sober reality of the current economic situation and the risk that borrowers may become unemployed before their loan closes and/or is sold into a security

» Lenders are less likely to try and drum up new business through low interest rates and instead are more apt to focus on executing current orders and improving margins on new applications to offset increased risks

» If the driving factors ease in coming weeks/months, simple math and underlying secondary market rates suggest there may be some room for additional downward movement in 30-year mortgage rates

» While that could provide refinance incentive to a significant population of homeowners, given the current state of unemployment and rate lock activity, the impacts that could have on runoff risk and refinance activity are yet to be seen

19.2

M

16.9

M

14.2

M

12.5

M

10.8

M

8.9M

7.5M

6.1M

5.2M

4.3M

3.3M

2.9M

2.5M

2.2M

1.9M

1.7M

1.5M

1.3M

1.1M

.9M

.8M

3.00

0%

3.12

5%

3.25

0%

3.37

5%

3.50

0%

3.62

5%

3.75

0%

3.87

5%

4.00

0%

4.12

5%

4.25

0%

4.37

5%

4.50

0%

4.62

5%

4.75

0%

4.87

5%

5.00

0%

5.12

5%

5.25

0%

5.37

5%

5.50

0%

NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES UNDER DIFFERENT 30-YEAR FIXED RATE SCENARIOS

(BASED ON FIRST LIEN MARKET MAKE-UP AS OF MARCH 2020)


0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

Jan-

02Ja

n-04

Jan-

06Ja

n-08

Jan-

10Ja

n-12

Jan-

14Ja

n-16

Jan-

18Ja

n-20

Jan-

22Ja

n-24

Jan-

26Ja

n-28

Jan-

30Fe

b-01

Feb-

03Fe

b-05

Feb-

07Fe

b-09

Feb-

11Fe

b-13

Feb-

15Fe

b-17

Feb-

19Fe

b-21

Feb-

23Fe

b-25

Feb-

27Fe

b-29

Mar

-02

Mar

-04

Mar

-06

Mar

-08

Mar

-10

Mar

-12

Mar

-14

Mar

-16

Mar

-18

Mar

-20

Mar

-22

Mar

-24

Mar

-26

Mar

-28

Mar

-30

Apr

-01

Apr

-03

Apr

-05

Apr

-07

Apr

-09

Apr

-11

Apr

-13

Apr

-15

PRIMARY VS. SECONDARY 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE SPREADPrimary Rate – Conventional 30-Year Average Note Secondary Market Rate – FNCL Primary-Secondary Spread

PRIMARY VS. SECONDARY 30-YEAR FIXED MORTGAGE RATE SPREAD NUMBER OF REFINANCE CANDIDATES UNDER DIFFERENT 30-YEAR FIXED RATE SCENARIOS

(BASED ON FIRST LIEN MARKET MAKE-UP AS OF MARCH 2020)







MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 10

Finally, we explore a number of near real time metrics that shine light on how COVID-19 is impacting supply and demand in the housing market. This information has been compiled from Black Knight’s McDash loan-level mortgage performance database, its Collateral Analytics home price and listing data and pipeline metrics from its Compass Analytics group. You may click on each chart to see its contents in high-resolution.

MARCH 2020 COVID-19 IMPACT ON THE HOUSING MARKET

» After falling as much as 63% below last year’s pace, in-person real estate showings began to pick up a bit beginning in the 3rd week of April

» Though a significant improvement, in-person real estate showings are still down 43% from the same time last year nationally

» In New York and Colorado – the latter of which has banned real estate showings as part of its shelter-in-place policy – in-person showings remain down 87% and 94% year-over-year respectively

» In Texas, showings are down by only 22% from the prior year, roughly half the decline being seen at the national level

» California and Florida (two of the nation's largest real estate markets) are also beginning to see increases in real estate showings, despite still being down 54% and 46% year-over-year respectively

» According to data from Black Knight’s Paragon MLS platform, there's also been an upward swing in online real estate searches as well

» After falling as much as 37% from their peak in early March, online real estate searches are up 20% over the past three weeks, and are now only down 24%

» Varying pullbacks in real estate showings may signal downstream impacts to come on real estate transaction volumes, purchase lending and potentially even home price trends

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

Feb-23

Feb-27

Mar-02

Mar-06

Mar-10

Mar-14

Mar-18

Mar-22

Mar-26

Mar-30

Apr-03

Apr-07

Apr-11

Apr-15

Apr-19

Apr-23

DAILY ONLINE HOMEBUYER PROPERTY VIEWS – 1-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE BLACK KNIGHT'S PARAGON MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE (MLS) PLATFORM

CO

FLCA

NY

TX

Nation

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

Jan-12 Jan-17 Jan-22 Jan-27 Feb-01 Feb-06 Feb-11 Feb-16 Feb-21 Feb-26 Mar-02 Mar-07 Mar-12 Mar-17 Mar-22 Mar-27 Apr-01 Apr-06 Apr-11 Apr-16 Apr-21

Chan

ge fr

om F

irst W

eek

of th

e Ye

ar

Source: ShowingTime

IIMPACT OF COVID-19 ON REAL ESTATE SHOWINGSWEEKLY SHOWINGS NORMALIZED TO THE FIRST CALENDAR WEEK OF JANUARY, 7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE.

60%

40%

20%

IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON REAL ESTATE SHOWINGSWEEKLY SHOWINGS NORMALIZED TO THE FIRST CALENDAR WEEK OF JANUARY, 7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE.

DAILY ONLINE HOMEBUYER PROPERTY VIEWS – 1-WEEK MOVING AVERAGEBLACK KNIGHT'S PARAGON MULTIPLE LISTING SERVICE (MLS) PLATFORM

Source: ShowingTime

CO

FLCA

NY

TX

Nation

-120%

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

Jan-12 Jan-17 Jan-22 Jan-27 Feb-01 Feb-06 Feb-11 Feb-16 Feb-21 Feb-26 Mar-02 Mar-07 Mar-12 Mar-17 Mar-22 Mar-27 Apr-01 Apr-06 Apr-11 Apr-16 Apr-21

Chan

ge fr

om F

irst W

eek

of th

e Ye

ar

Source: ShowingTime

IIMPACT OF COVID-19 ON REAL ESTATE SHOWINGSWEEKLY SHOWINGS NORMALIZED TO THE FIRST CALENDAR WEEK OF JANUARY, 7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE.

60%

40%

20%








MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 11


» While the decline in new real estate listings has begun to level off as well, the daily inflow of new inventory remains nearly 70% below last year’s levels as of the third week of April, according to observations from Black Knight’s Collateral Analytics

» Collateral Analytics' daily listing and sale volumes will be essential in coming weeks and months to track how supply and demand constraints are interacting in real time at the state, MSA, county, and neighborhood levels

» Prices on the sale side (newly completed closings) have risen through late March and early April – likely riding the wave of record-low interest rates prior to many state and local shelter-in-place orders

» However, the median price of newly listed properties has begun to decline, with the gap between list prices and sales prices tightening significantly in recent weeks

» This shrinking delta could suggest downward pressure on median sale prices in the near term

» Softening list prices are likely due to a combination of factors, including fewer listings in more expensive - and densely populated - urban areas, but also may be a result of sellers pricing more aggressively given the many unknowns in the housing market

» Lack of volume means that price discovery isn’t as fluid and it can mean more volatile home prices in coming months

$260,000

$270,000

$280,000

$290,000

$300,000

$310,000

$320,000

$330,000

$340,000

$350,000

Jan-

09

Jan-

15

Jan-

21

Jan-

27

Feb-

02

Feb-

08

Feb-

14

Feb-

20

Feb-

26

Mar

-03

Mar

-09

Mar

-15

Mar

-21

Mar

-27

Apr

-02

Apr

-08

Apr

-14

Apr

-20

COLLATERAL ANALYTICS – MEDIAN PRICE OF NEW LISTINGS VS. NEW SALESDAILY OBSERVATIONS THROUGH APRIL 20TH 2020

Median Price on New Listings Median Price on New Sales (Closings)

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

Jan-09

Jan-15

Jan-21

Jan-27

Feb-02

Feb-08

Feb-14

Feb-20

Feb-26

Mar-03

Mar-09

Mar-15

Mar-21

Mar-27

Apr-02

Apr-08

Apr-14

Apr-20

10%

COLLATERAL ANALYTICS – NEW REAL ESTATE LISTING VOLUMEYEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE (1-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE)

COLLATERAL ANALYTICS – NEW REAL ESTATE LISTING VOLUMEYEAR-OVER-YEAR CHANGE (1-WEEK MOVING AVERAGE)

COLLATERAL ANALYTICS – MEDIAN PRICE OF NEW LISTINGS VS. NEW SALESDAILY OBSERVATIONS THROUGH APRIL 20TH 2020






MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 12


» The seven-day average of purchase rate locks dropped nearly 70% from its peak in early March through mid-April, and in a time when seasonal purchase lending is typically ramping up

» Volumes have since begun to rebound over the past week and are now back to within ~50% of their March peak, suggesting that activity in the housing market is beginning to pick back up

» Average locks in April are down by 50% from March and more than 45% from February’s average

» Still, with April locks likely to close in May, a somewhat conservative 50% COVID-19-related headwind would result in $70 billion in lost purchase closings in May alone

3.00%

3.25%

3.50%

3.75%

4.00%

4.25%

-

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

Jan-

03

Jan-

08

Jan-

13

Jan-

18

Jan-

23

Jan-

28

Feb-

02

Feb-

07

Feb-

12

Feb-

17

Feb-

22

Feb-

27

Mar

-03

Mar

-08

Mar

-13

Mar

-18

Mar

-23

Mar

-28

Apr

-02

Apr

-07

Apr

-12

Apr

-17

Apr

-22

Apr

-27

PURCHASE ORIGINATION INTEREST RATE LOCKS(7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)

Purchase Rate Lock Volume Conv. 30 Average Note Rate (Right Axis)


Leading indicators of purchase lending are showing heavy impacts from COVID-19, although improvement has been seen over the last week

PURCHASE ORIGINATION INTEREST RATE LOCKS(7-DAY MOVING AVERAGE INDEXED TO 2020 PEAK)






MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 13

Mar-20 Monthly Change

YTD Change

Yearly Change

Delinquencies 3.39% 3.33% 5.34% -7.25%

Foreclosure 0.42% -7.73% -10.08% -17.96%

Foreclosure Starts 27,600 -14.55% -35.51% -30.48%

Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 1.18% -3.32% -5.52% -18.57%

New Originations (data as of Feb-20) 680K 7.5% -7.2% 61.7%

Mar-20 Feb-20 Jan-20 Dec-19 Nov-19 Oct-19 Sep-19 Aug-19 Jul-19 Jun-19 May-19 Apr-19 Mar-19

Delinquencies 3.39% 3.28% 3.22% 3.40% 3.53% 3.39% 3.53% 3.45% 3.46% 3.73% 3.36% 3.47% 3.65%

Foreclosure 0.42% 0.45% 0.46% 0.46% 0.47% 0.48% 0.48% 0.48% 0.49% 0.50% 0.49% 0.50% 0.51%

Foreclosure Starts 27,600 32,300 42,800 39,500 33,500 43,900 39,400 36,200 39,200 40,100 39,000 41,400 39,700

Seriously Delinquent (90+) or in Foreclosure 1.18% 1.22% 1.25% 1.27% 1.30% 1.31% 1.32% 1.33% 1.34% 1.37% 1.37% 1.40% 1.45%

New Originations 680K 632K 733K 716K 836K 775K 769K 730K 666K 688K 605K 522K

3.65

%

3.47

%

3.36

%

3.73

%

3.46

%

3.45

%

3.53

%

3.39

%

3.53

%

3.40

%

3.22

%

3.28

%

3.39

%

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Jun-1

9Ju

l-19

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Jan-2

0

Feb-20

Mar-20

TOTAL DELINQUENCIES

522K 60

5K 688K

666K

730K

769K

775K

836K

716K

733K

632K

680K

Mar-19

Apr-19

May-19

Jun-1

9Ju

l-19

Aug-19

Sep-19

Oct-19

Nov-19

Dec-19

Jan-2

0

Feb-20

NEW ORIGINATIONS

MARCH 2020 DATA SUMMARY

MARCH 2020 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 14

Month Total Active Count 30 Days 60 Days 90+ Days FC Total NC FC Starts Average Days

Delinquent for 90+Average Days

Delinquent for FCRatio of 90+

to FC

1/31/05 47,706,128 1,197,062 339,920 458,719 276,745 2,272,446 50,922 242 324 165.8%1/31/06 50,900,620 1,242,434 387,907 542,378 258,613 2,431,332 76,477 207 308 209.7%1/31/07 53,900,458 1,425,030 468,441 551,439 393,973 2,838,883 117,419 203 267 140.0%1/31/08 55,478,782 1,743,420 676,266 950,639 813,560 4,183,885 195,033 190 256 116.8%1/31/09 55,788,441 2,001,314 932,436 1,878,981 1,321,029 6,133,760 250,621 193 323 142.2%1/31/10 55,098,009 1,945,589 903,778 2,972,983 2,068,572 7,890,922 292,308 253 418 143.7%1/31/11 53,861,778 1,750,601 746,634 2,078,130 2,245,250 6,820,615 277,374 333 527 92.6%1/31/12 52,687,781 1,592,463 652,524 1,796,698 2,205,818 6,247,503 223,394 395 666 81.5%1/31/13 51,229,692 1,464,583 587,661 1,551,415 1,742,689 5,346,348 156,654 460 803 89.0%1/31/14 50,380,779 1,341,074 529,524 1,278,955 1,213,046 4,362,599 97,467 486 935 105.4%1/31/15 50,412,744 1,238,453 465,849 1,060,002 884,901 3,649,204 93,280 509 1,031 119.8%1/31/16 50,754,010 1,300,564 444,962 832,265 660,056 3,237,847 72,021 494 1,047 126.1%1/31/17 51,159,681 1,110,977 390,341 665,258 481,613 2,648,190 70,568 454 1,012 138.1%1/31/18 51,428,922 1,085,065 413,313 708,248 337,351 2,543,976 62,470 364 931 209.9%1/31/19 51,896,438 1,074,044 367,750 503,655 264,875 2,210,325 50,196 391 830 190.1%1/31/20 52,999,009 954,154 332,534 418,662 245,517 1,950,866 42,834 338 838 170.5%2/29/20 52,950,379 1,012,320 315,219 409,432 239,058 1,976,030 32,259 341 842 171.3%3/31/20 52,879,016 1,077,439 309,101 405,840 220,271 2,012,651 27,585 338 875 184.2%

LOAN COUNTS AND AVERAGE DAYS DELINQUENT

MARCH 2020 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 15

State Del % FC % NC % Year/Year Change in NC% State Del % FC % NC % Year/Year

Change in NC% State Del % FC % NC % Year/Year Change in NC%

National 3.4% 0.4% 3.8% -8.5% National 3.4% 0.4% 3.8% -8.5% National 3.4% 0.4% 3.8% -8.5%MS 8.5% 0.6% 9.1% -11.4% VT* 3.6% 0.9% 4.5% -5.7% NH 3.2% 0.2% 3.4% -10.5%LA* 6.8% 0.8% 7.5% -5.0% OH* 3.7% 0.6% 4.4% -8.7% WI* 3.0% 0.4% 3.4% -9.2%AL 5.9% 0.3% 6.2% -9.7% TN 4.1% 0.2% 4.3% -12.2% VA 3.1% 0.2% 3.3% -9.5%WV 5.4% 0.5% 5.9% -6.7% KS* 3.8% 0.4% 4.3% -6.1% NV 2.7% 0.5% 3.2% -0.3%AR 4.9% 0.5% 5.3% -10.0% NJ* 3.7% 0.6% 4.3% -12.1% WY 2.7% 0.2% 2.9% -11.5%OK* 4.5% 0.8% 5.3% -4.2% FL* 3.6% 0.6% 4.2% -8.4% AZ 2.6% 0.2% 2.8% -4.7%RI 4.5% 0.6% 5.1% -13.2% IL* 3.5% 0.6% 4.2% -4.0% SD* 2.2% 0.4% 2.6% -4.2%IN* 4.5% 0.6% 5.1% -8.8% NM* 3.4% 0.7% 4.1% -10.4% MN 2.4% 0.2% 2.6% -2.3%PA* 4.3% 0.6% 5.0% -8.6% NC 3.7% 0.3% 4.0% -12.3% DC 2.1% 0.4% 2.5% -17.6%GA 4.7% 0.3% 5.0% -7.9% MO 3.6% 0.2% 3.9% -7.4% UT 2.4% 0.1% 2.5% -3.4%NY* 3.6% 1.3% 4.9% -8.9% KY* 3.4% 0.5% 3.9% -9.4% ND* 1.9% 0.4% 2.3% -1.7%MD* 4.3% 0.5% 4.8% -11.0% NE* 3.5% 0.3% 3.7% -1.6% MT 2.0% 0.3% 2.3% -10.1%SC* 4.2% 0.5% 4.7% -11.4% IA* 3.2% 0.5% 3.7% -4.3% CA 2.0% 0.1% 2.2% -8.4%CT* 3.9% 0.8% 4.7% -12.7% HI* 2.4% 1.2% 3.7% -15.5% OR 1.7% 0.2% 1.9% -10.1%ME* 3.6% 1.1% 4.7% -20.0% AK 3.3% 0.3% 3.6% 6.8% ID 1.7% 0.1% 1.9% -16.6%TX 4.4% 0.3% 4.7% -3.7% MI 3.3% 0.2% 3.5% -11.4% WA 1.6% 0.2% 1.8% -17.1%DE* 4.0% 0.7% 4.7% -13.1% MA 3.1% 0.4% 3.4% -18.6% CO 1.7% 0.1% 1.8% -6.3%

* Indicates Judicial State

STATE-BY-STATE RANKINGS BY NON-CURRENT LOAN POPULATION

MARCH 2020 APPENDIX





MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 16

Mortgage Monitor Disclosures

You can reach us by email [email protected]

Follow us on Twitter@Black_KnightInc

MARCH 2020 DISCLOSURE



http://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BKI_MM-Disclosures.pdf

http://www.blackknightinc.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/BKI_MM-Disclosures.pdf

mailto:Mortgage.Monitor%40bkfs.com%20?subject=

https://twitter.com/black_knightinc?lang=en


MORTGAGE MONITOR

MARCH 2020 | 17

MARCH 2020 DEFINITIONS

TOTAL ACTIVE COUNT: All active loans as of month-end including loans in any state of delinquency or foreclosure. Post-sale loans and loans in REO are excluded from the total active count.

DELINQUENCY STATUSES (30, 60, 90+, ETC):

All delinquency statuses are calculated using the MBA methodology based on the payment due date provided by the servicer. Loans in foreclosure are reported separately and are not included in the MBA days delinquent.

90-DAY DEFAULTS: Loans that were less than 90 days delinquent in the prior month and were 90 days delinquent, but not in foreclosure, in the current month.

FORECLOSURE INVENTORY: The servicer has referred the loan to an attorney for foreclosure. Loans remain in foreclosure inventory from referral to sale.

FORECLOSURE STARTS: Any active loan that was not in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into foreclosure inventory in the current month.

NON-CURRENT: Loans in any stage of delinquency or foreclosure.

FORECLOSURE SALE / NEW REO:

Any loan that was in foreclosure in the prior month that moves into post-sale status or is flagged as a foreclosure liquidation.

REO: The loan is in post-sale foreclosure status. Listing status is not a consideration, this includes all properties on and off the market.

DETERIORATION RATIO: The ratio of the percentage of loans deteriorating in delinquency status vs. those improving.



mortgage monitor - black knight, inc. › wp-content › uploads › 2020 › ...the full market,...

Documents