MORTALITY CRISIS IN RUSSIA: WILL WE EVER

LEARN?

Vladimir Popov, New Economic School, Moscow

Fig. 1. Mortality rate (per 1000, left scale) and average life expectancy (years, right scale)

6

8

10

12

14

16

1950

1953

1956

1959

1962

1965

1968

1971

1974

1977

1980

1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

Mo

ratl

ity

rate

, per

100

0 in

hab

itan

ts

63

64

65

66

67

68

69

70

Ave

rag

e lif

e ex

pec

tan

cy, y

ears

Mortality (left scale)

Life expectancy (right scale)

Fig. 2. Mortality Rates and Life Expectancy (at birth) in the Course of Early Urbanization: England 1540-1870

20

25

30

35

40

45

15

66

15

86

16

06

16

26

16

46

16

66

16

86

17

06

17

26

17

46

17

66

17

86

18

06

18

26

18

46

18

66

Life expectancy, years Crude death rate per 1000 inhabitants

Fig. 3. Sales of alcohol, liters of pure alcohol per capita (left scale), death rates per 100,000 from alcohol poisoning, murders and suicides (right scale)

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1970

1972

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Sal

es o

f al

coh

ol,

litre

s o

f p

ure

alc

oh

ol p

er c

apit

a

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dea

th r

ates

pr

100,

0000

Murders

Legal sales of alcohol per capita

Deaths from alcohol poisoning

Suicides

Alternative estimate of alcohol consumption per capita

Mortality Crisis in Russia Revisited: Evidence from Cross-Regional Comparison. -

MPRA Paper No. 21311, March 2010.

Over 80% of the regional variations in changes in life expectancy in 1990-2003 are explained by:

• Objective conditions (climate, urbanization, regional dummies for the Far East and Moscow)

• Institutional capacity of the regional governments (share of employment at small enterprises, crime rate and murder rate)

• Economic indices (investment and income) • Stress factors (labor turnover, migration, divorces,

income inequalities, crime) • Health care system developments (even without

alcohol consumption indicators)

Increase in the consumption of alcohol is also driven by stress factors

VODKAincr = -1.2 – 0.65VODKA97 + 0.002POPdens + 0.03UNEMPL03 +

(3.88) (-5.74) (2.90) (1.97)

+0.001MIGRgrINCR + 0.05INEQincr + 0.04LABmob + 0.008POVERTYincr

(2.48) (1.66) (6.40) (1.69)

(N=75, R2 = 0.49, robust standard errors, t-statistics in brackets all coefficients significant at 10% level or less)

Fig. 4. Predicted (with and without stress) and actual changes in life expectancy in Russia's regions in 1990-2003, years

Fig. 6. Predicted (w ith and w ithout stress) and actual changes in life expectancy in Russia's regions in 1990-2003, years

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-9 -8 -7 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0

Actual changes in life expectancy in 1990-2003

Pre

dic

ted

ch

ang

es in

life

ex

pec

tan

cy

With stress Without stress Moscow

Kareliya

Tyva

Krasnodar

Kalmyk

Archangelsk

Kaliningrad

Kabardino-Balkar