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8-Oct-2013

Morning Matters

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WHAT’S INSIDE

On The Platter

Asian Property Dev (AP TB;FVTHB4.75-Sell(from Neutral) : Weak Presales Dampen Outlook

AP has performed poorly to date in terms of presales and results. While we see a rebound in 3Q13 profit, driven by realised sales of two condominiums (condos) completed in June, there are still downside risks to 4Q13 and FY14 profits. Hence, we cut its FY13F-14F profit growth to a single digit. Downgrade to SELL, with a lower THB4.75 TP (from THB6.30), pegged to -1SD to its long-term mean PE.

MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS

REIT law faces hurdles before onset

CP's Vietnam unit to increase dory sales

Airports record 20% rise in travellers

Mc Group buys 51% stake in Time Deco

AIS tries new approach for roaming fees

PTTEP's gas-processing, living-quarters platform sets sail for Zawtika field in the Gulf of Mottama

ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS

India Eases Cash Crunch at Banks, Leaves Benchmark Unchanged

Singapore Seen Keeping Currency Appreciation on Inflation Risks

New Zealand Business Confidence Surges to 14-Year High

U.K. House-Price Index Rises to Highest Since June 2002

Major Powers Seek Sway at APEC Lured by Growth Potential

SET Intra-Day Graph

Source: Bloomberg

Key Market Indices (7 October 2013)

Value Chg % Chg % YTD

SET 1414.62 -13.10 -0.9% 1.6%

SET50 962.87 -10.25 -1.1% 1.8%

SET100 2122.65 -21.98 -1.0% 2.1%

Dow Jones 14936.24 -136.34 -0.9% 14.0%

S&P500 1676.12 -14.38 -0.9% 17.5%

Nasdaq 3770.38 -37.38 -1.0% 24.9%

FTSE 6437.28 -16.60 -0.3% 9.1%

FSSTI 3128.30 -9.78 -0.3% -1.2%

Hang Seng 22973.95 -164.59 -0.7% 1.4%

Nikkei 13750.35 -313.79 -2.2% 32.3%

KLCI 1772.62 -3.94 -0.2% 4.9%

SHANGHAI SE 2174.67 UNCHG UNCHG -4.2%

JCI 4374.96 -14.39 -0.3% 1.3%

SET 5-yr avg 2012 2013F

PE (x) 14.0 15.5 14.1

P/BV (x) 1.8 2.2 2.2

Yield (%) 4.1 3.1 3.3

Key Statistics

SET Value by investor Type: Daily

Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm)

Institution 2,502.88 1,804.65 698.23

Proprietary 4,437.33 5,873.68 -1,436.34

Foreign 6,020.27 6,911.57 -891.30

Retail 19,205.78 17,576.37 1,629.41

SET Value by investor Type

MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 4,059.70 87,546.15

Proprietary 1,193.53 -2,827.08

Foreign -3,916.21 -110,335.52

Retail -1,337.02 25,616.44

SET50 Index Future

Long Short Net MTD YTD

Institution 6,277 5,525 752 -496 11,926

Foreign 3,059 2,510 549 403 -11,367

Local 7,380 8,681 -1,301 93 -559

Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) -28.4 -125.2 -3,592.1 -261.7

See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

Media Highlights

REIT law faces hurdles before onset

Regulations governing the launch of real estate investment trusts (REITs) set for early next year will probably run behind schedule, as a law related to tax incentives for the funds has hit a snag. Chalee Chantanayinhyong, deputy secretary-general of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), said tax issues concerning a 7% value-added tax (VAT) and dividend tax the main concerns putting REITs at a disadvantage to property funds have not been settled. He said no company has applied to introduce a REIT, including Impact Exhibition Management, the flagship of Bangkok Land Plc (BLAND). Impact recently announced a plan to launch the country's first REIT, the 20-billion-baht Impact Growth REIT, in the fourth quarter. Impact has appointed Kasikornbank and Maybank Kim Eng Securities as the financial advisers and distributors and Kasikorn Asset Management as the trustee. Proceeds from the Impact Growth REIT offering will be used to finance Impact Exhibition's second phase. According to the SEC, new property funds will no longer be launched after fulfilment of the REIT law. (Bangkok Post) CP's Vietnam unit to increase dory sales

CP Vietnam (CPV) hopes to earn US$40 million (1.26 billion baht) from selling 15,000 tonnes of pangasius dory next year, a 67% increase from this year's level. Most of the fish will be sold to food services in Thailand where demand has been strong. The fish, which is in the same family as striped catfish or pla sawai, has quickly become Thais' favourite thanks to its taste and reasonable prices. The company, an affiliate of Charoen Pokphand Foods Plc (CPF), introduced the fish to the Thai market five years ago and has drawn a good response, said Pisit Ohmpornnuwat, CPF's chief operating officer in charge of overseas trading. According to Mr Pisit, Vietnam is a major producer of dory fish. Of its output of 1.5 million tonnes last year, 650,000 tonnes were exported, mainly to the US, Europe, China, Saudi Arabia and Asean including Thailand. The fish has high business potential because unlike other marine varieties, they can be harvested all year. (Bangkok Post)

Airports record 20% rise in travellers

Passenger traffic through Thailand's six main airports showed robust growth in the fiscal year to last month, climbing 20.4% over the previous year to 86.13 million. Aircraft movements increased by 16.5% to 559,397, according to preliminary figures from Airports of Thailand Plc (AoT). The flourishing budget airlines, Thailand's popularity as a tourism destination (particularly among Chinese), the absence of political unrest and the expanded domestic network were credited for the rise in traffic at AoT airports. The year saw 54.26 million international travellers and 31.87 million domestic passengers passing through those airports, which had 316,509 international aircraft movements and 242,888 (Bangkok Post)

Mc Group buys 51% stake in Time Deco

Mc Group Plc, the manufacturer of Mc jeans, has bought a 51% stake in Time Deco Corporation, a distributor of imported fashion watches, for 210 million baht to diversify its portfolio and speed up its plan to double sales within the next four years. The company set up a new subsidiary, Look Balance, to acquire a 51% stake in Time Deco. Mc Group holds a 99.97% stake in Look Balance, which also serves as a holding company to look for new business opportunities. Time Deco's two founders, Vararit Plengvanit and Panu Narongchaikul, still each hold a 24.5% stake. The company distributes watch brands such as Fossil, Coach, DKNY, Burberry, Marc by Marc Jacobs and Diesel. Last year, it had sales of 453 million baht as of September 2012. "With the new scheme, our plan to double the sales of Mc Group from 3.1 billion baht last year will be faster than earlier expectations," said chief executive Sunee Seripanu. Mc Group aims to complete 1-2 deals next year to take over lifestyle brands such as purses and expects to reach agreements with potential representatives in Malaysia and Indonesia this year, she said. (Bangkok Post)

AIS tries new approach for roaming fees

AIS is introducing an unlimited mobile chat package to ease consumer fears over exorbitant international roaming fees when using their phone overseas. The country's largest mobile operator said its tariff plans are designed to discourage people from having to temporarily switch mobile operators by purchasing a local SIM card to avoid hefty phone bills.Titipong Khiewpaisal, senior vice-president for consumer marketing and sales, said AIS's chat tariff plans offer unlimited access to texts or messaging services like Line, WhatsApp and Facebook Messenger for 199 baht per day in New Zealand and Singapore. (Bangkok Post)

PTTEP's gas-processing, living-quarters platform sets sail for Zawtika field in the Gulf of Mottama

PTT Exploration and Production (PTTEP) has launched the Zawtika Processing and Living Quarters Platform (ZPQ), which it says marks another achievement to secure energy supply for Myanmar and Thailand. PTTEP held a sail-away ceremony for ZPQ on Saturday in Singapore. It will sail from SMOE Pte Ltd's construction yard in Singapore to its destination at the Zawtika field in the Gulf of Mottama, Myanmar. Upon completion, it is expected to produce natural gas for supply to Myanmar and Thailand. Myanmar Energy Minister Zay Yar Aung jointly presided over the ceremony with Norkun Sitthiphong, chairman of the board of PTTEP. Guests of honour were welcomed by Tevin Vongvanich, president and chief executive officer of PTTEP, and other executives from all parties. Zay Yar Aung said the production from this project would fulfil part of his country's requirement for natural gas. Therefore this project is very important for the energy sector and also for the development of Myanmar. The first gas from the Zawtika project is expected by the end of this year with a targeted production rate of 345 million standard cubic feet per day. (The Nation)


Economic Highlights

India Eases Cash Crunch at Banks, Leaves Benchmark Unchanged

India’s central bank rolled back further an emergency step taken to shore up its currency as the rupee’s continued stabilizat ion allowed it to relax liquidity for the nation’s banks. Governor Raghuram Rajan lowered the marginal standing facility rate to 9 percent from 9.5 percent, the Reserve Bank of India said in a statement yesterday, the second cut in less than a month. The benchmark for monetary policy, the repurchase rate, was left at 7.5 percent. Rajan raised the repo rate last month to fight elevated inflation. The rupee has climbed about 11 percent versus the dollar since reaching a record low in August, among the world’s best performers in that time, boosted by Rajan’s steps to attract inflows of the U.S. currency. The governor, a former International Monetary Fund chief economist, took over at the RBI in September and has said he plans a measured rollback of liquidity curbs imposed on the banking system in July. (Bloomberg) Singapore Seen Keeping Currency Appreciation on Inflation Risks

The Monetary Authority of Singapore will probably refrain from easing monetary policy this month as taming inflation takes priority over reviving economic growth. The central bank, which uses the exchange rate rather than borrowing costs as its main policy tool, will keep the current stance of a “modest and gradual” appreciation in the Singapore dollar and refrain from adjusting the trading band on Oct. 14, according to 19 of 21 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News. The economy probably contracted last quarter, another survey showed. Singapore is grappling with persistent price risks even as Asia’s growth outlook falters with the World Bank and Asian Development Bank cutting economic forecasts this month. The island has resisted any monetary easing since October 2011 as a tight labor market and persistent demand for homes spurs inflation risks. (Bloomberg) New Zealand Business Confidence Surges to 14-Year High

New Zealand business confidence surged to a 14-year high in the third quarter, signaling the economy is rebounding from a mid-year slowdown. A gauge of confidence based on a survey of about 900 businesses by the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research rose to 38 from 32 three months earlier, the most since the first quarter of 1999. The seasonally adjusted measure increased to 32 from 30, the highest since the first quarter of 2010, NZIER said in Wellington today. “Businesses are optimistic, activity is rebounding and this is being gradually realized into more jobs and profits,” NZIER principal economis t Shamubeel Eaqub said. The rebound in domestic trading activity is consistent with annual economic growth of about 3 percent, he said. The New Zealand dollar rose after the report before easing to trade little changed at 83.06 U.S. cents at 10:56 a.m. in Wellington. Economic growth slowed to 0.2 percent in the second quarter from 0.4 percent three months earlier as a drought curbed farm output. The Reserve Bank has said it is likely to start raising interest rates next year as the annual pace of growth picks up to 3.5 percent, the fastest since 2007, led by consumer spending, house construction and rebuilding in earthquake-damaged Christchurch. (Bloomberg) U.K. House-Price Index Rises to Highest Since June 2002

A U.K. house-price index rose to the highest in more than a decade last month as government measures to boost homebuying lifted the outlook for sales to a record. A gauge by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors increased to 54, the highest since June 2002, from 41 in August, the London-based group said in a report today, citing a poll of property surveyors. A price-expectations measure advanced to 48, the highest since May 2002. The latest evidence of a strengthening property market comes as the government begins the second phase of its Help to Buy program. While the measure, aimed at helping potential buyers get on the property ladder, has prompted warnings that it could fuel a bubble, the Bank of England has said housing activity remains low by historic standards. While the index of new buyer enquiries -- a proxy for demand -- fell to 49 in September from 65 in August, that compares with a reading of 10 for new seller instructions, today’s report showed. A gauge of sales expectations surged to 56 from 41, the highest since that index began in 1998. (Bloomberg) Major Powers Seek Sway at APEC Lured by Growth Potential

The U.S. and China both touted their partnership credentials to Asian leaders meeting in Bali as they vie for greater economic and strategic influence in a region where trade and growth potential remains high. Speaking at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum yesterday, U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry -- standing in for President Barack Obama -- and Chinese President Xi Jinping each pledged to work with countries to boost trade and investment. APEC leaders wrap up their meeting today, with most moving on to Brunei for a summit of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Major powers are asserting themselves in Asia as they hunt for new sources of growth, while assuring leaders they are not trying to dominate smaller countries or contain each other. China has softened its tone in recent months after disputes over waters in the South China Sea rich in oil, gas and fish raised tensions with countries such as Vietnam and the Philippines. (Bloomberg)


Outperform

Current Target Upside/

Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F

ADVANC Buy 263.00 319.00 21.3 20.7 4.8

AOT Buy 193.00 222.00 15.0 25.6 1.6

BTS Trading Buy 8.70 10.20 17.2 40.1 6.2

INTUCH Trading Buy 84.25 104.00 23.4 17.9 5.1 .

PTT Buy 319.00 388.00 21.6 8.1 4.3

PTTGC Buy 75.25 82.00 9.0 10.1 4.5

Underperform

Current Target Upside/

Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks

(Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F

AP Neutral 5.65 6.30 14.0 6.5 3.4

KTB Buy 19.40 28.30 45.9 9.0 3.9

TCAP Neutral 33.25 41.00 23.3 4.4 4.0

TISCO Sell 38.25 41.00 7.2 7.1 6.7

7 4 3 2 1 7 4 3 2 1

1 DTAC 273.5 179.8 -40.3 411.1 -118.5 KBANK -301.3 -587.4 -892.0 -58.6 -242.5 DTAC 705.6 KBANK -2,081.8 INTUCH 49,203.0 SCC -10,251.3

2 ADVANC 148.1 71.0 127.3 -84.5 59.9 SCB -255.2 25.2 213.2 -406.6 -57.7 INTUCH 496.7 SCB -481.2 BAY 19,786.5 KBANK -2,914.3

3 TOP 85.9 71.5 33.7 10.0 -15.9 SCC -88.1 48.2 -91.6 -193.0 -42.0 ADVANC 321.8 SCC -366.4 ADVANC 16,611.3 LH -2,181.7

4 PTT 84.2 -112.7 126.2 31.0 4.9 PTTGC -58.0 182.9 -9.9 5.8 12.9 PTTEP 213.0 BGH -211.4 PTT 13,334.5 SIRI -781.3

5 TMB 71.6 3.8 -7.7 -1.1 19.0 INTUCH -56.5 176.2 192.2 156.4 28.2 AOT 201.8 CPALL -181.3 DTAC 12,911.5 CK -737.1

6 UNIQ 31.8 21.1 0.3 -0.0 -0.2 PTTEP -39.9 74.8 77.9 28.4 71.7 TOP 185.2 JAS -162.6 PTTGC 11,732.7 DEMCO -620.3

7 QH 29.9 -1.6 15.7 -0.4 25.0 CPN -34.1 -16.0 -48.8 -10.3 -21.0 STEC 155.5 CPN -130.3 PTTEP 11,379.4 UV -418.7

8 STEC 29.1 -16.1 -11.6 87.9 66.2 THCOM -24.7 -23.7 -31.5 -18.5 -18.9 PTTGC 133.7 BAY -118.4 AOT 4,883.1 ASP -367.6

9 MINT 28.9 14.3 -26.7 -42.1 17.9 TRUE -20.7 -10.8 -48.5 -9.2 5.3 PTT 133.7 THCOM -117.2 CPF 4,504.9 BANPU -353.0

10 SPALI 21.1 -0.5 0.6 29.4 -2.1 ERW -18.6 -17.2 -12.1 -1.9 3.9 BTS 131.7 KTB -103.6 STEC 4,438.7 NOBLE -318.0

11 BLAND 20.7 -6.2 -15.8 0.2 0.8 JAS -17.7 -77.2 14.3 13.8 -95.8 DELTA 130.6 BBL -102.5 BIGC 4,181.6 IRPC -311.3

12 CENTEL 19.3 -3.3 8.0 8.3 -5.9 BH -17.6 -23.3 -5.8 -13.1 1.6 EGCO 110.1 SIRI -101.3 MAKRO 4,165.2 RML -279.1

13 BAY 18.4 20.0 -54.1 3.9 -106.7 KTB -15.2 -81.1 -78.8 77.9 -6.5 TMB 85.6 TISCO -84.1 CPALL 4,159.3 MINT-W4 -238.0

14 AAV 18.0 0.4 -0.2 -0.0 -5.3 HMPRO -13.6 -19.7 -0.6 -5.9 -2.7 QH 68.7 TRUE -83.9 CPN 4,105.8 EARTH -221.4

15 BEC 15.2 -9.7 -46.3 18.0 12.4 AP -13.4 -5.3 -13.0 11.8 -8.0 UNIQ 53.0 LH -71.9 TOP 3,922.6 TRC -216.9

16 EGCO 12.2 22.5 46.8 10.0 18.6 CPF -12.4 -3.9 49.9 3.1 -10.5 TCAP 49.5 SPCG -63.0 MINT 3,491.0 GUNKUL -199.0

17 BECL 9.9 9.1 4.3 4.8 1.1 SPCG -9.5 -12.9 -21.3 -7.2 -12.0 SPALI 48.6 BH -58.3 THAI 3,208.4 LRH -193.8

18 TCAP 7.8 9.9 5.8 1.0 25.0 GLOW -8.3 0.9 26.0 -7.4 -6.2 M 47.7 SCCC -52.3 DELTA 2,928.8 GLOBAL -186.3

19 PS 7.3 -3.2 6.0 -3.8 -8.9 BTS -7.8 31.3 83.8 12.1 12.3 BANPU 47.3 ERW -46.0 TCAP 2,870.6 TWFP -137.3

20 BANPU 6.8 12.5 14.3 20.8 -7.0 MAKRO -6.5 7.9 2.2 -2.9 -4.8 LPN 39.4 HMPRO -42.4 TUF 2,870.0 SINGER -124.1

% % of % of

Turn. paidup paidup

1 TMB 5.09 1 TISCO-P 66.16 65.86

2 BLAND 1.62 2 BBL 30.17 29.99

3 BLAND-W4 5.16 3 KBANK 27.12 28.50

4 JAS 4.82 4 INTUCH 23.32 5.41

5 QH 6.88 5 SPALI 21.65 17.94

6 KTB 4.82 6 E-W1 21.62 22.27

7 TRUE 1.14 7 GOLD-W1 18.91 14.87

8 BTS 5.28 8 THRE 17.98 15.50

9 ERW 22.33 9 LH 17.65 21.18

10 N-PARK 0.90 10 LPN 17.07 21.73

11 DTAC 56.34 11 TWFP 16.14 24.77

12 KBANK 32.21 12 DTAC 15.72 13.33

13 IRPC 13.21 13 TCAP 14.73 12.60

14 UNIQ 10.65 14 THIP 14.50 12.64

15 AAV 10.87 15 AP 14.49 12.92

16 AP 13.46 16 LALIN 13.87 13.53

17 SIRI 1.83 17 BAY 13.71 13.89

18 LH 17.24 18 EGCO 12.81 10.17

19 INTUCH 12.90 19 PRANDA 12.78 14.59

20 SCB 16.12 20 GBX 12.75 13.54

Source : SET.OR.TH

Most Active Values (Btmn)

8 October 2013

Oct 13 Oct13

Total Volume Shares

(Last)

NVDR Shrs. Paid up CapitalNVDR Shrs.

7-Oct-13 2-Jan-13

Net Buy Net Sell Net Buy Net Sell

2 Jan- 07 Oct 131-7-Oct- 13

1,908,842,894

40,463,600 14,564,991 22,400 22,300 55,028,591 25,898,609

21,433,500

33,858

5,050,000 13,710,300 18,760,300

NetBuy Sell Total

7,076,800 8,962,230 16,039,030

572,486,791 12,540,500

649,093,529 682,155,834

575,961,992 8,893,000 30,326,500

3,206,420,305

-8,660,300

1,716,553,249

2,393,260,193

747,613,573

307,949,569 371,589,750

-1,885,430 173,363,101

347,000,000

11,924,000 2,614,500

5,811,000 -3,856,800

2,425,675 4,824,100 7,249,775 -2,398,425

977,100

14,538,500 9,309,500

6,921,805 -868,795

7,746,605 -785,395 75,032,728 77,281,246

4,833,900

3,026,505 3,895,300

3,480,605 4,266,000

392,073,718

3,512,494,860

74,145,298 74,970,598

631,394,351 544,461,149

10,025,921,523

1,475,698,768

1,769,408,042 2,123,251,472

251,897,924 320,609,239

2,354,634 95,060,550 15,344,460

372,166,057 315,525,949 2,367,811,000

409,144,800

526,465,000

825,000,000

832,472,579

59,270,000

111,592,900

6,074,143,747

1,664,600 2,660,800

2,507,770

1,243,600 1,544,500

424,470 2,083,300

996,200

2,788,100

147,453,300 1,089,076,392

2,820,200 -1,339,400

67,451,951 53,541,225

52,284,800

138,889,300 -1,658,830

-668,400

-300,900

843,803,210

414,532,329 367,964,647

114,418,900 -2,340,400

2,859,920,138 3,263,500

2,377,312

2,991,123

188,223,536 161,065,653 1,277,816,397

8,000,000 1,160,000 1,011,300

5,140,000 - 5,140,000 5,140,000

3,622,812 1,245,500 4,868,312

740,400 2,079,800

3,927,000

2,793,900

3,907,200 19,800

3,324,50030,500

1,328,900 4,122,800

-1,712,491

-1,465,000

260,300

3,294,000

2,600,700 2,861,000

3,887,400

4,269,7551,278,632

NVDR Trading Data by Stock (Volume) NVDR Shares to Total Paid-up Shares(%)

NET BUY NET SELL Month to Date Year to Date

THAI NVDR : Top Ranking

See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFATM

Platform 1

Company Update, 8 October 2013

Asian Property Dev (AP TB) Sell (from Neutral) Consumer Cyclical - Home Builders Target Price: THB4.75

Market Cap: USD535m Price: THB5.85

Weak Presales Dampen Outlook

Macro

3.00

Risks

2.00

Growth

1.00

Value

2.00

48

58

68

78

88

98

108

118

4.2

5.2

6.2

7.2

8.2

9.2

10.2

11.2

Asian Property Dev (AP TB)Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS)

20

40

60

80

100

120

Oct-

12

De

c-1

2

Fe

b-1

3

Ap

r-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Au

g-1

3

Vo

l m

Source: Bloomberg

Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 100m/3.19m

Cons. Upside (%) 41.9

Upside (%) -18.8

52-wk Price low/high (THB) 4.82 - 10.5

Free float (%) 61

Shareholders (%)

Anuphong Assavabhokhin 23.2

Thai NVDR 15.3

Pichet Vipavasuphakorn 7.9

Shariah compliant

Wanida Geisler +66 2862 9748

License No.17602 [email protected]

Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover (THBm) 13,840 13,638 17,309 18,922 20,725

Reported net profit (THBm) 2,228 1,551 2,329 2,354 2,459

Recurring net profit (THBm) 2,154 1,548 2,234 2,354 2,459

Recurring net profit growth (%) 11.8 (28.1) 44.3 5.3 4.5

Core EPS (THB) 0.92 0.60 0.79 0.83 0.86

DPS (THB) 0.32 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.19

Dividend Yield (%) 5.4 2.6 3.1 3.1 3.2

Core P/E (x) 6.35 9.74 7.41 7.08 6.78

Return on average equity (%) 25.4 15.4 20.1 17.6 16.3

P/B (x) 1.44 1.54 1.33 1.18 1.05

P/CF (x) na na 5.4 30.3 13.4

EV/EBITDA (x) 7.3 10.3 9.2 8.7 8.3

Net debt to equity (%) 108.4 129.3 92.2 84.1 73.4

Our vs consensus EPS (%) (1.6) (13.7)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates

AP has performed poorly to date in terms of presales and results. While we see a rebound in 3Q13 profit, driven by realised sales of two condominiums (condos) completed in June, there are still downside risks to 4Q13 and FY14 profits. Hence, we cut its FY13F-14F profit growth to a single digit. Downgrade to SELL, with a lower THB4.75 TP (from THB6.30), pegged to -1SD to its long-term mean PE.

Weak YTD presales. AP’s 3Q13 presales came in at THB3.6bn (2Q13:

THB4.6bn; 1Q13: THB3.2bn). Presales of both condos and landed properties have been sluggish over the past nine months at THB12bn (-26.0% y-o-y), representing only 55.0% of its full-year forecast of THB22bn.

Strong 3Q13 profit, but downside risks to 4Q13 results remain. We

estimate 3Q13 revenue and net profit at THB5.5bn and THB700m, respectively, mainly from realised condo sales of Rhythm Sukumvit 50 and Aspire Rama 4, which were completed in June. 4Q13 profit, on the other hand, is highly dependent on the completion of two condos – the THB3.4bn Rhythm Pahol Aree and the THB2.7bn Rhythm Sukumvit 44/1

in November. If they are completed and transferred on time, we may be able to see some bottomline growth. However, as the completion schedule is very close to year-end, there is a chance that revenue may slip.

Trimming earnings growth. We cut FY13F-14F growth to a single digit.

We expect FY13 profit to be sluggish, on the back of poor presales and some quality problems, which caused delays in ownership transfer and sales booking. Meanwhile, FY14 profit growth will still be unexciting, amid a tougher operating environment and the company’s internal problems, such as: i) weak branding, ii) quality control issues, iii) slow selling pace, and iv) delays in construction.

New THB4.75 TP (from THB6.30). We reduce our TP to THB4.75 (from

THB6.30), based on FY14F EPS pegged to a 5.5x P/E (-1SD to its long-term mean). AP deserves to trade at a discount, as its performance is much weaker than the industry’s. That said, any rebound in 3Q13 profit provides a good opportunity to SELL.

Asian Property Dev (AP TB) 8 October 2013


Poor presales. AP’s 9M13 presales of THB12bn comprised sales of landed property

and condos of THB6.4bn (-13% y-o-y) and THB5.6bn (-38% y-o-y) respectively. Besides a sharp decline in condo sales, we note that landed property sales have gradually declined for four quarters in a row to THB2.1bn in 3Q13 from its peak of THB2.9bn in 3Q12. Given that 9M13 presales accounted for only 55.0% of its full-year target, AP’s management said that actual FY13 presales are likely to come in more than 20.0% below its guidance despite a 66.0% growth in value of new launches to THB32bn.

Figure 1: Quarterly presales Figure 2: Annual presales

Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Facing difficulties since end-2012. AP’s rebranding programme (with a budget of

1.0% of annual presales) has yet to prove successful, as seen from the sluggish YTD presales of both its landed properties and condos. Sales of the group’s first upcountry condo project worth THB700m in Udornthani ultimately settled at 57.0%, down from around 70.0% during the launch period in 2Q13. Hence, we are sceptical on the outcome of its two upcountry condo projects in Pitsanulok and Pattaya, which are scheduled for launch in 4Q13. In addition, its super luxurious THB3.2bn condo project in Sukumvit 39, Galerie rue de 39, is only 7.0% sold so far – much slower than expected. Quality problems were also seen at the Address Sathorn 12 project, causing delays in ownership transfer and sales bookings. Furthermore, the construction of the THB2.2bn Aspire Ngamwongwan project has been suspended since last year due to neighbourhood protests. AP had to return its buyers’ deposits and, up till now, sales bookings remain at only 18.0%. Construction is expected to re-start at end-2013 and be completed in 18-24 months. This implies that realised revenue from this project will only kick in sometime in 2015.

Cutting earnings forecast and TP. With the sector’s outlook turning tougher amid

stricter lending measures and an economic slowdown, AP – which has been struggling with internal problems such as: i) weak branding, ii) quality control issues, iii) slow selling pace, and iv) construction delays – stands to be a loser. Hence, we cut its FY13F-14F earnings growth to a single digit.

While consensus TP of THB8.3 is pegged to a mean P/E of 9.5x, we assume a lower P/E of 5.5x (1SD below its long-term mean P/E) to derive our new THB4.75 TP. We see that AP deserves to trade at a discount, as its performance is much weaker than the industry’s.

Figure 3: Long-term mean P/Es and SDs

Source: SET Market Analysis and Reporting Tool (Setsmart), RHB estimates



Financial Exhibits

Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total turnover 13,840 13,638 17,309 18,922 20,725

Cost of sales (8,602) (8,434) (11,273) (12,556) (13,846)

Gross profit 5,238 5,204 6,036 6,366 6,879

Other operating costs (2,133) (2,697) (3,139) (3,302) (3,689)

Operating profit 3,105 2,507 2,897 3,064 3,190

Operating EBITDA 3,283 2,702 3,049 3,274 3,408

Depreciation of fixed assets (27) (41) (49) (50) (55)

Amortisation of intangible assets (151) (154) (103) (160) (163)

Operating EBIT 3,105 2,507 2,897 3,064 3,190

Net income from investments 9 - - - -

Other recurring income 90 74 76 84 92

Interest expense (103) (190) (213) (205) (208)

Exceptional income - net 106 4 117 - -

Pre-tax profit 3,207 2,395 2,877 2,942 3,074

Taxation (977) (844) (548) (588) (615)

Minority interests (2) - - - -

Profit after tax & minorities 2,228 1,551 2,329 2,354 2,459

Reported net profit 2,228 1,551 2,329 2,354 2,459

Recurring net profit 2,154 1,548 2,234 2,354 2,459


Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Operating profit 3,105 2,507 2,897 3,064 3,190

Depreciation & amortisation 178 195 152 210 218

Change in working capital (5,552) (4,961) 172 (2,124) (1,613)

Other operating cash flow 347 316 629 194 276

Operating cash flow (1,922) (1,943) 3,850 1,344 2,070

Interest paid (103) (190) (213) (205) (208)

Tax paid (977) (844) (548) (588) (615)

Cash flow from operations (3,002) (2,977) 3,089 550 1,247

Capex (540) (63) (150) (234) (316)

Cash flow from investing activities (540) (63) (150) (234) (316)

Dividends paid (747) (918) (509) (699) (706)

Proceeds from issue of shares 211 484 75 - -

Increase in debt 2,725 3,557 (2,199) 341 -

Cash flow from financing activities 2,189 3,123 (2,633) (358) (706)

Cash at beginning of period 1,708 355 438 744 702

Total cash generated (1,353) 83 306 (42) 225

Implied cash at end of period 355 438 744 702 927




Financial Exhibits

Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Total cash and equivalents 355 438 744 702 928

Inventories 21,347 26,616 26,490 28,191 29,720

Accounts receivable 9 69 108 5 5

Other current assets 1,510 1,476 1,411 1,446 1,482

Total current assets 23,221 28,599 28,753 30,344 32,135

Tangible fixed assets 132 143 126 126 126

Intangible assets 353 210 225 249 347

Total other assets 408 423 208 480 505

Total non-current assets 893 776 559 855 978

Total assets 24,114 29,375 29,312 31,199 33,112

Short-term debt 3,860 5,922 4,209 4,550 4,550

Accounts payable 711 575 777 816 857

Other current liabilities 2,938 3,569 3,410 3,235 3,330

Total current liabilities 7,509 10,066 8,396 8,601 8,736

Total long-term debt 6,807 8,302 8,073 8,073 8,073

Other liabilities 285 346 323 350 375

Total non-current liabilities 7,092 8,648 8,396 8,423 8,448

Total liabilities 14,601 18,714 16,792 17,024 17,184

Share capital 2,343 2,812 2,848 2,848 2,848

Retained earnings reserve 7,142 7,789 9,600 11,255 13,008

Other reserves 28 60 72 72 72

Shareholders' equity 9,513 10,661 12,520 14,175 15,928

Total equity 9,513 10,661 12,520 14,175 15,928

Total liabilities & equity 24,114 29,375 29,312 31,199 33,112


Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F

Revenue growth (%) 9.6 (1.5) 26.9 9.3 9.5

Operating profit growth (%) 9.3 (19.3) 15.6 5.8 4.1

Net profit growth (%) 15.6 (30.4) 50.2 1.1 4.5

EPS growth (%) 15.4 (36.8) 36.8 0.4 4.5

Bv per share growth (%) 18.1 (6.6) 16.0 13.2 12.4

Operating margin (%) 22.4 18.4 16.7 16.2 15.4

Net profit margin (%) 16.1 11.4 13.5 12.4 11.9

Return on average assets (%) 10.3 5.8 7.9 7.8 7.6

Return on average equity (%) 25.4 15.4 20.1 17.6 16.3

Net debt to equity (%) 108.4 129.3 92.2 84.1 73.4

DPS 0.32 0.15 0.18 0.18 0.19

Recurrent cash flow per share (1.28) (1.15) 1.09 0.19 0.44




SWOT Analysis

Well-structured product portfolio, of which 50.0% comprises condominium projects

Its brands are well-known in Bangkok

Prolonged economic slowdown

Shortage of labour and construction firms

Tightening of lending measures, which may push rejection rates up

Condominiums are still popular, thanks to changes in lifestyles

Urbanisation boosts provincial demand

Expansion of the mass transit system

Entered the provincial market later than its competitors

Some quality control problems

-50%

-33%

-17%

0%

17%

33%

50%

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/E (x) vs EPS growth

P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs)

0%

3%

7%

10%

13%

17%

20%

23%

27%

30%

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Jan

-10

Jan

-11

Jan

-12

Jan

-13

Jan

-14

P/BV (x) vs ROAE

P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs)

Source: Company data, RHB estimates Source: Company data, RHB estimates

Company Profile Asian Property Development (AP) is a property developer specialising in townhouses and condominiums, with developments mainly in Bangkok and its vicinity. Its first upcountry condominium project in the Udornthani province was launched in 1Q13.



Recommendation Chart

1

3

5

7

9

11

13

Oct-08 Jan-10 Apr-11 Jul-12

Price Close

NR

8.8

9.8

11.3

6.3

Recommendations & Target Price

Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

Date Recommendation Target Price Price

2013-08-07 Neutral 6.3 5.8

2013-05-14 Neutral 11.3 8.6

2013-02-28 Neutral 11.3 10.3

2012-11-28 Neutral 9.8 8.6

2012-08-15 Buy 8.8 7.6

Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg

7

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8

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Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) – Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012

ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO

BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB

2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP

ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US

*** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 2012.

IOD (IOD Disclaimer)

การเปิดเผลผลการส ารวจของสมาคมส่งเสริมสถาบันกรรมการบรษิัทไทย (IOD) ในเรื่องการก ากับดูแลกิจการ (Corporate Governance) นี้เป็นการด าเนินการตามนโยบายของส านักงานคณะกรรมการก ากับหลักทรัพย์และตลาดหลักทรัพย์ โดยการส ารวจของ IOD เป็นการส ารวจและประเมินจากข้อมูลของบรษัทจดทะเบียนในตลาดหลักทรัพย์แห่งประเทศไทยและตลาดหลกัทรัพย์เอ็มเอไอ ที่มีการเปิดเผยต่อสาธารณะและเป็นข้อมูลที่ผูล้งทุนทั่วไปสามารถเข้าถงึได้ ดังนั้นผลส ารวจดังกล่าวจึงเป็นการน าเสนอในมุมมองของบุคคลภายนอกโดยไม่ได้เป็นการประเมินการปฏิบัติและมิได้มีการใช้ข้อมูลภายในในการประเมิน

อนึ่ง ผลการส ารวจดังกล่าว เป็นผลการส ารวจ ณ วนัที่ปรากฎในรายงานการก ากับดแูละกิจการบริษัทจดทะเบียนไทยเท่านั้น ดังนั้นผลการส ารวจจึงอาจเปลี่ยนแปลงได้ภายหลังวันดังกล่าว ทัง้นี้บริษัทหลักทรัพย์ อาร์เอสบี โอเอส เค จ ากัด (มหาชน) มิได้ยืนยันหรือรับรองถึงความถูกต้องของผลการส ารวจดงักล่าวแต่อย่างใด

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