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Thursday, Apr 19, 2018 by Chris Lehner | 913.787.6804 | [email protected]

Cattle USDA FEDERAL SLAUGHTER 4/18/2018, 119,000, a week ago, 119,000 and a year ago, 116,000 Boxed Beef 3:00PM APRIL 17, 2018

CHOICE SELECT 600-900 600-900

Current Cutout Values: 211.64 198.57 Change from prior day (0.49) (1.01) Choice/Select spread: 13.07 Total Load Count 169 5 Day Simple Average: 212.42 200.15 NATIONAL BOXED BEEF CUTS – NEGOTIATED SALES FOB Plant basis negotiated sales for delivery within 0-21 day period. Choice Cuts 100.51 loads 4,020,582 pounds Select Cuts 35.46 loads 1,418,207 pounds Trimmings 9.65 loads 385,888 pounds Ground Beef 23.38 loads 935,292 pounds LOAD COUNT AND CUTOUT VALUE SUMMARY FOR PRIOR 5 DAYS CHOICE SELECT Date Total 600-900 600-900 04/17 128 212.13 199.58 04/16 116 211.79 199.98 04/13 107 212.61 199.91 04/12 137 212.48 200.67 04/11 136 213.07 200.61 http://www.beefretail.org/wholesalepriceupdate.aspx Wholesale Beef Price Update Boxed beef cutout values weak to lower on light to moderate demand and heavy offerings. Select and Choice rib, chuck, and round cuts steady to firm while loin cuts weak to lower. Beef trimmings slightly lower on light demand and moderate offerings.

mailto:[email protected]

http://www.beefretail.org/wholesalepriceupdate.aspx

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Beef and Pork Exports at bottom of Report Disappointing. Exports have been strong and still aren’t bad, but week after week seeing too many decreases. Large Choice movement on lower prices. From morning to afternoon Choice beef reversed .98 cents from higher to lower. Choice the lowest it has been in a week. Select beef weakening daily. This is not positive. The spread between April and June has feedlot managers concerned with many feedlots in red now. Look for feedlots to be moving cattle as soon as ready. Hopefully, they won’t fight the market and retain cattle putting on extra pounds. Fed Cattle Exchange: April 18, 2018 Sale Results 3220 head listed for sale, 499 head sold 1-9 Day Delivery: 2882 head, 161 head sold, weighted average price $122.00 17-30 Day Delivery: 338 head, 338 head sold, weighted average price $120.00 Cattle on Feed, April 20, 2018 2:00 PM central - Estimates below Cold Storage, April 23, 2018 2:00 PM central DELIVERY - APRIL 2018 LIVE CATTLE 04/19/18 APRIL SETTLEMENT: 118.97 0 Deliveries Oldest Long: 10/16/17 Settlement on 10/16/17: $121.65 =============================================================== Sterling Marketing for week ending April 13, 2018 Sterling Beef Profit Tracker Beef Packer Margin: 174.10, A week ago, $191.73, a year ago $74.56 Feedlot Margin: - $42.95, a week ago, -$36.23, a year ago $430.05 DJ Analysts' Estimates for April USDA Cattle-On-Feed Report

Average Range of estimates of estimates On-feed April 1 107.4 106.5- 108.1 Placed in March 89.8 84.8- 93.8 Marketed in March 96.0 95.0- 96.3 Analyst On-Feed Placements Marketed Apr 1 in March in March

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Alegiant Commodity Group 107.4 90.5 96.3 Allendale Inc. 107.1 87.8 95.0 HedgersEdge 107.1 88.5 96.3 Livestock Mktg Info Ctr 108.1 93.8 96.1 NFC Markets 107.2 89.0 96.1 AgStrata LLC 106.5 84.8 95.4 Texas A&M Extension 108.1 93.4 95.7 U.S. Commodities 107.3 89.7 96.1 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- USDA BY-PRODUCT DROP VALUE (STEER) FOB CENTRAL U.S. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls441.txt ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ April 2018 Live Cattle settled on overhead resistance 100 day average next resistance at 119.97. Support 116.20

https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/nw_ls441.txt

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JUNE 2018 LIVE CATTLE – Closed above 20 day average. Next overhead at 108.52 Support 104.05

August 2018 Cattle. Resistance 107.35 Support 104.00

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June/August Cattle Spread – August gained on June Looks like traders want to bear spread

June 2018 Lean Hog/June 2018 Live Cattle Spread – Hogs gained 1.20 on cattle

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Feeder Cattle

The CME Feeder Index on 04/17/2018 is 137.90 up .15 cents from previous day. April feeder cattle settled at 138.75 on 4/18/18 Feeders are bear spread. Feeders have weakened as week progresses in country. Started out stronger, auctions Wednesday steady with last week. May 2018 Feeder Cattle – A close over 143.15 could move May feeders up to overhead trendline now at 151.35. However, feeders are bear spread. Support at 138.22

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AUGUST 2018 FEEDERS – 147.44 overhead resistance. Support 143.27

Lean Hogs

CME CASH HOG INDEX 04/16/2018 54.02 up .49 from previous day CME CASH PORK CUTOUT INDEX 04/17/2018 at 66.97 up .38 from previous day Estimated Hog Slaughter 04/18/2018: 462,000. A week ago, 466,000, A year ago, 444,000 ================================================================ Sterling Marketing for week ending April 13, 2018 Sterling Pork Profit Tracker Pork Packer Margins: $24.97, A week ago, $37.75, A year ago $26.65 Farrow to finish Margins: ($18.20), A week ago, ($20.98), A year ago $3.36

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Pork Carcass up .25 on afternoon cutout, down from morning at 1.35 All primal cuts higher except hams and bellies. Bellies off 3.85 from morning, down .79 in afternoon. ========================================================================== April 18, 2018 USDA Market News NATIONAL DAILY DIRECT HOG PRIOR DAY REPORT - SLAUGHTERED SWINE

Slaughter Data for April 17, 2018

NEGOTIATED OTHER SWINE OTHER NEGOTIATED TOTALS/

MARKET OR PORK PURCHASE FORMULA WTD AVG

FORMULA MARKET ARRGMENT

(FUT/OPT)** FORMULA

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HEAD COUNT 7,327 42,935 127,652 103,803 1,194 282,911

CARCASS BASE PRICE 49.17 67.01 53.16 62.27 * 58.61

AVERAGE NET PRICE 50.84 69.18 55.84 63.54 * 60.63

LOWEST NET LOT 43.24 50.54 43.41 44.29 * 46.06

HIGHEST NET LOT 55.75 82.54 67.96 85.85 * 73.37

AVERAGE LIVE WT 267.12 285.36 283.33 283.62 * 283.36

AVERAGE CARCASS WT 199.58 215.98 213.35 213.56 * 213.51

AVERAGE SORT LOSS -1.77 -1.78 -1.72 -1.23 * -1.55

AVERAGE BACKFAT 0.67 0.62 0.63 0.70 * 0.65

AVG LOIN DEPTH (LD) 2.28 2.74 2.72 2.56 * 2.67

LEA (LD Converted) 6.85 8.25 8.18 7.69 * 8.02

AVERAGE LEAN PERCENT 54.10 56.39 56.18 55.68 * 56.02

=============================================================

April 18, 2018 USDA Market News NATIONAL DAILY PORK REPORT FOB PLANT - Negotiated Sales morning

Loads PORK CUTS : 166.83

Loads TRIM/PROCESS PORK : 14.12

Date Loads Carcass Loin Butt Pic Rib Ham Belly

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

04/18/2018 304.85 68.46 69.38 89.00 44.94 125.71 54.73 91.64

Change: 0.25 0.23 2.01 1.30 1.22 -0.57 -0.79

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

04/17/2018 380.03 68.21 69.15 86.99 43.64 124.49 55.30 92.43

04/16/2018 313.26 68.15 68.86 86.22 44.63 125.82 55.77 91.00

04/13/2018 262.49 66.33 67.53 84.22 44.49 124.53 53.93 86.85

04/12/2018 309.87 66.06 66.75 83.02 44.12 125.26 52.30 88.70

Five Day Average -- 67.44 68.33 85.89 44.36 125.16 54.41 90.12 =================================================================

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National Base Carcass Prices April 18, 2018 BASE PRICE: $46.00 - $57.50 Weighted Ave: $54.19 1.92 higher National Live Hog Prices LIVE PRICE $36.00 - $42.00 Weighted Ave: $39.59 0.37 lower

June 2018 Lean Hogs – Resistance Thursday 79.15 There is an overhead trendline at 81.45 Support 76.60 June has large premium to cash. What June hogs are doing, June cattle are doing the opposite. Likely June hogs and cattle moving more on spread, than trading by themselves. June hogs now in the time of month when there is no spot month trading. Like March, specs can do whatever they want until market reaches June.

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October 2018 Lean Hogs 69.40 Resistance Support 67.25

December/October Lean Hog Spread – December 6.00 under October. October volume more than 4 times December.

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All Charts from eSignal Interactive, Inc. Export Sales Highlights for the period April 6-12, 2018. Beef: Net sales of 19,900 MT for 2018 were down 9 percent from the previous week, but up 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were primarily for Japan (8,600 MT, including decreases of 1,600 MT), Mexico (3,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), South Korea (2,700 MT, including decreases of 400 MT), Canada (2,200 MT, including decreases of 100 MT), and Hong Kong (1,600 MT, including decreases of 100 MT). Exports of 15,200 MT were up 1 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (5,000 MT), South Korea (3,700 MT), Mexico (1,900 MT), Hong Kong (1,400 MT), and Canada (1,300 MT). Pork: Net sales of 17,900 MT for 2018 were down 18 percent from the previous week and 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (4,700 MT), Mexico (4,500 MT), Japan (2,900 MT), Canada (1,900 MT), and Colombia (1,100 MT). Exports of 16,100 MT were down 30 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (5,000 MT), South Korea (3,300 MT), Japan (3,200 MT), China (1,200 MT), and Canada (900 MT). [email protected] 913.787.6804 312 242 7942

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