more warming ev (both sides)

7/26/2019 More Warming Ev (Both Sides)

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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Core

Warming Bad

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***Science Debate***

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Warming Real Generic

Warming real - consensusBrooks 12- Staff writer, KQED news (Jon, staff writer, KQED news, iting Craig !i""er, en#ironmenta"sientist, $%&%12, 'Is C"imate Cange )ea"* +or te ousant ime, .es,' KQED /ews,tt0%%b"ogs34eorg%newsfi5%2612%6$%6&%is-"imate-ange-rea"-for-te-tousant-time-7es%8

9)::KS Sowhat are the organizations that sa climate change is real!!I;;E)"irtuall e#er ma$or%credible scienti&ic organization in the world' (t)s not $ust the n at tat time, te7 sai in tisre0ort, wi is 3nown as >)-A, tatthere is #er high con&idence that the net e&&ect o& human acti#ities sine1@$6has been one o& warming' Sientists are #er7 arefu", unusua""7 arefu", about ow te7 0ut tings 9ut ten te7 sa7 '#er7 "i3e"7,' or'#er7 ig onfiene,' te7=re ta"3ing B6 9)::KS So it=s not 166* !I;;E) In te rea"m of siene there)s #irtuall ne#er 13certaint about anthing'.ou 3now, as someone one 0ointe out, gra#it7 is a teor7 9)::KS Gra#it7 is testab"e, toug

"irtuall e#er ma$or credible scienti&ic organization in the world sas climate change is real'!I;;E) .oure rigt .ou an=t ro0 a ou0"e of ba""s off of te ;eaning ower of ?isa to 0ro#e "imate ange at=s w7 we a#e to re"7 on

matematia" moe"s to tr7 to figure out were tis is a"" going >n tats iffiu"t 9ut it=s not im0ossib"e, as some 0eo0"e "i3e to 0aint it .ou 3now, te0eo0"e oing te moe"s are not ine0t :#er te 0ast near"7 four 7ears, C"imate Wat as inter#iewe a "ot of sientists, attene onferenes, reaaaemi 0a0ers o me, as wat 7ou migt a"" an informe obser#er, te #ast 0re0onerane of sientifi e#iene su00orts tis notion tat te Eart is

warming an tat uman ati#it7 is a signifiant ause 9)::KS >re tere "egitimate ebun3ers of tis 0ro0osition* !I;;E) Certain"7there arelegitimate scientists on the other sie of te 4uestion If 7ou ta3e, for e5am0"e, a gu7 b7 te name of Jon Crist7 from te "abama, wo is #er7 strong"7 ientifie wit "imate ange s3e0tis at oesn=t mean tat is wor3 is in#a"iate Fe ame out reent"7 wit astu7 tat basia""7 refute te iea tat tere=s been an obser#ab"e srin3age in te snow 0a3 of te Sierra /e#aa >n we ta"3e to oter sientistswo o be"ie#e in antro0ogeni or uman-inue g"oba" warming an o be"ie#e tat te Sierra snow 0a3 is going to be srin3ing, wo tougt tat

tis stu7 was soun 9ut tat=s one stu7 in a sea of stuies >nou ha#e look at the .re.onderance o& the e#idenceand not at an one .articular stud% not an0artiu"arear, not e#en an7 0artiu"ar ten 7ears, beause e#en a 16-7ear trenoes not neessari"7 onstitute "imate ange 9)::KS Wat are some of te metris scientistsa#e "oo3e at to ome to te on"usion tatuman-ause "imate ange is rea"* !I;;E) e7stud tem.erature records' ere a#e been tia" gauges in 0"ae for a "ong time,"oo3ing at sea-"e#e" rise, an a"so augmente now b7 sate""ite ata tat measure wit greater aura7 te rate of te rise 4he)#e looked attings "i3eice cores from Green"an an e"sewere wi gi#es us sort of a re#erse rono"ogia" stor7 of wat te "imate as one >n 7ou an

atua""7 0u"" one of tose ie ores an see te amount of C62 tat was in te atmos0ere at te time >n wat the0#e &ound is wat "oo3s to bea .rett con#incing relationshi. betweente amount ofcarbon dio5ide in te atmos0ereand the bea#ior of teEart=sclimate'9)::KS 9ut tere are some wo refute tat e#iene* !I;;E) >bso"ute"7 We="" get 0eo0"e fre4uent"7 ommenting on our b"ogwo wi"" sa7 te sea "e#e" is not rising an tat tere=s been no warming for te 0ast ten 7ears >s I a"rea7 0ointe out,ten ears o& anthingdoes not constitute aefiniti#e.attern6 it)s $ust too short a time s.an' (t)s this idea o& cherr-.icking data%wi bot sies ause te oter of oing'7ou ha#e to look at te Eart=s climate o#er time as a reall

big% om0"iate igsaw .uzzle'>n "ear"7there are .ieces missing'>nthere are .ieces sitting off to te sie tat aren=tmissing, butwe don)t 8uite know how the &it into te 0uzz"e 7et 9ut sti""%ou see enough of te 0itureto know

what)s going on' 4he science has ielded at "east -- as Stanfors Cris +ie" of te I?CC 0uts it --a blurr .icture of tefuture >n te b"urr7 0iture is enoug to 3now te genera" iretion we=re eaing, e#en witout 3nowing a"" of te s0eifis 9)::KS >re tere

former ritis wo now a3now"ege te rea"it7 of "imate ange* !I;;E) )iar 9ullerwou" be a goo e5am0"e of tat Fe=s te 07siist o#erat


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreas &loods% droughts% heat wa#es% and tornadoes' ther e&&ects of g"oba"warming include higher orlower agricultural ields% &urther glacial retreat% reduced summer stream &lows% s.eciese5tinctions' s a &urther e&&ect o& global warming% diseases like malaria are returning into areas

where the ha#e been e5tinguished earlier'>"toug g"oba" warming is affeting te number an magnitue of tese e#ents, itis iffiu"t to onnet s0eifi e#ents to g"oba" warming >"toug most stuies fous on te 0erio u0 to 2166,warming is e5.ected tocontinue .ast then because carbon dio5ide @chemical smbol +2A has an estimatedatmos.heric li&etime o& ? to 2 ears'

Warming e5tremel high and increasingCcurrent action is ke to sol#ing

9alcolm% /ni#ersit o& 4oronto% 2k @a 9alcolm =E2 tt0%%wwf0anaorg%*21A&%S0ee-Ki""s-)ates-of-C"imate-Cange-are-reateningBA

9oston, fria, te n7a"a is #u"nerab"e toe50ete abitat ange in !a"awis ;engwe /ationa" ?ar3, an sientists a#e 0reite tat Sout >frias re "ar3 ou" "ose its entire remainingabitatM)e0orts of eos7stem anges ue to reent g"oba" warming are a"rea7 oming in from man7 0arts of te wor" Costa )ias go"en toa ma7be e5tint beause of its inabi"it7 to aa0t to "imate anges birs su as te great tit in Sot"an an te !e5ian a7 in >rizona are beginning to

bree ear"ier in te 7ear butterf"ies are sifting teir ranges nortwars trougout Euro0e a"0ine 0"ants are mo#ing to iger a"titues in >ustria anmamma"s in man7 0arts of te >rti - in"uing 0o"ar bears, wa"rus an aribou - are beginning to fee" te im0ats of reue sea ie an warming

tunra abitatM doubling o& +2 in the atmos.here has the .otential to e#entuall destro at least athird o& the world0s e5isting terrestrial habitats, wit no ertaint7 tat te7 wi"" be re0"ae b7 e4ua""7 i#erse or 0routi#eeos7stems, or tat simi"ar eos7stems wi"" estab"is e"sewere nean s0eta"e bear, entra" >merias res0"enent 4uetza",te mountain 07gm7 0ossum of >ustra"ia an te monar butterf"7 at its !e5ian wintering grouns !an7 oasta" an is"an s0eies wi"" be at ris3from te ombine treat of warming oeans, sea-"e#e" rise an range sifts, a"" of wi an a signifiant"7 to e5isting uman 0ressuresM>s an be

seen from tese e5am0"es, an te growing bo7 of siene, an a"arm is souning' 4he rate o& global warming ma be a criticaldeterminant in the &uture o& the global biodi#ersit and we cannot a&&ord to wait to reducegreenhouse gases' /rgent action is necessar to .re#ent the rate o& change reaching a le#el that

will be catastro.hic &or nature and which ma bring about irre#ersible losses o& our world0snatural treasuresM

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http://wwf.panda.org/?2143/Speed-Kills-Rates-of-Climate-Change-are-Threateninghttp://wwf.panda.org/?2143/Speed-Kills-Rates-of-Climate-Change-are-Threateninghttp://wwf.panda.org/?2143/Speed-Kills-Rates-of-Climate-Change-are-Threateninghttp://wwf.panda.org/?2143/Speed-Kills-Rates-of-Climate-Change-are-Threatening


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Warming Real nthro.ogenic

Warming is real and anthro.ogenic+2JS 11 (Center for C"imate an Energ7 So"utions - suessor to te ?ew Center on G"oba" C"imate Cange,an reent"7 name te wor"=s to0 en#ironmenta" tin3 tan3, 'Siene +>Qs,' tt0%%www2esorg%g"oba"-

warming-basis%fa4Ns%g"aneNfa4Nsienefm8

> more etai"e, state-of-te-art attribution of #arious "imate trens is 0ossib"e using o0tima" finger0rintinga00roaes tat mat ini#iua" forings (for e5am0"e, greenouse gases, so"ar intensit7 or airborne 0arti"es8to obser#e "imate ange 0atterns using g"oba" "imate moe"s is teni4ue as etete uman-inuetrens in a wie #ariet7 of "imate #ariab"es in"uing "an surfae warming, #ertia" warming of te oeans,"oss of >rti sea ie o#er, an anges in 0rei0itation 0atterns at ifferent "atitues on te Eart'bser#ations o& global land and ocean sur&ace warming and warming o& all continents e5ce.t

ntarctica show that no combination o& &orcings that e5cludes manmade greenhouse gases cane5.lain the warming trend o& the .ast hal&-centur @see &igureA' o0 :ow do we knowgreenhouse gases are increasing because o& human acti#it! Some greenhouse gases @G:GA%such as industrial halocarbons% are onl made b humans% and thus their .resence in theatmos.here can onl be e5.lained b human acti#it' +or natura""7 ourring GFG, se#era"

ine0enent "ines of e#iene ma3e it r7sta" "ear tat te7 are inreasing beause of uman ati#ities +irst,C:2, metane, an nitrous o5ie onentrations were stab"e for tousans of 7ears' Suen"7, te7 began torise "i3e a ro3et aroun 266 7ears ago, about te time tat umans began to engage in #er7 "arge-sa"eagriu"ture an inustr7(see figure8 Second% scientists and economists ha#e de#elo.ed estimates o&all the natural and human G:G sources' When the add them u.% onl the human contributionsare increasing In fat, te amount of uman-mae GFG in te buget are more tan enoug to e50"ain terise in onentrations, wi means tat natura" 0roesses are absorbing te e5ess amount, 3ee0ing GFGonentrations from rising e#en more +or C:2, te most im0ortant uman-0roue GFG, sientists an te""from emia" measurements of te atmos0ere tat te additional +2 is &romKcombustion @i'e' burning &ossil &uelsA because the amount o& o5gen in the atmos.here isdecreasing in direct .ro.ortion to the rise in +26 a .rehistoric @&ossilA source because theamount o& radioacti#e carbon in the atmos.here has been decreasing o#er the .ast centur6

&rom .lants @i'e' ancient trees that became coal and oilA rather than a geological source @i'e'#olcanoesA' 4ogether% all o& these inde.endent lines o& e#idence lea#e no doubt that G:Gconcentrations are increasing because o& human acti#ities'

Global Warming is real and anthro.ogenic multi.le warrants'Romm 1 (Jon, Eitor of C"imate ?rogress, Senior +e""ow at te >merian ?rogress, former >ting >ssistantSeretar7 of Energ7 for Energ7 Effiien7 an )enewab"e Energ7, +e""ow of te >merian >ssoiation for te

>#anement of Siene, Dis0uting te onsensusO on g"oba" warming,Ott0%%"imate0rogressorg%2616%6%1%sientifi-onsensus-on-g"oba"-warming-"imate-siene%,8WP

> goo e5am0"e of ow te onsensus= 0roess onfuses 0eo0"e R es0eia""7 te anti-siene row, wi

g"oms onto an7 a00arent isagreement among sientists as e#iene against te onsensus= R an be foun intwo Dot Eart 0osts on >nrew > ;ais, te />S> "imato"ogist wose 266$ riti4ue of te ssessment, ere is no sientifi merit to be foun in teE5euti#e Summar7O Watts)A re0ort was e4ui#oatingin not stating "ear"7 an forefu""7 enoug tat uman-inue warming of te "imate s7stem is estab"isefat, an not someting to be "abe"e as #er7 "i3e"7O at te B6 0erent 0robabi"it7 "e#e" nd 4he bottomline is that +2 is absolutel% .ositi#el% and without 8uestion% the single most im.ortant

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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coregreenhouse gas in the atmos.here' (t acts #er much like a control knob that determines theo#erall strength o& the Jarth)s greenhouse e&&ect' Hailure to control atmos.heric +2 is a bad

wa to run a business% and a sure&ire ticket to climatic disaster DoV :e thought the (++s it turne out, te "ist is bot 0ae an "augab"e, ontaining te o0inions of weatermen,eonomists, a bun of non-0rominent sientists wo aren=t "imate e50erts, an, 0era0s sur0rising"7, e#en anumber of 0eo0"e wo atua""7 be"ie#e in te onsensus 9ut in an7 ase, noting ou" be more irre"e#ant to


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Core"imate siene tan te o0inion of 0eo0"e on te "ist su as Weater Canne" founer Jon Co"eman orfame in#entor )a7 Kurzwei" (wo atua""7 oes tin3 g"oba" warming is rea"O8 :r, for tat matter, m7o0inion R e#en toug I researe a ?D tesis at te Sri00s Institution of :eanogra07 on 07sia"oeanogra07 in te Green"an Sea Wat matters is sientifi finings R ata, not o0inions e I?CC re"ieson te 0eer-re#iewe sientifi "iterature for its on"usions, wi must meet te rigorous re4uirements of tesientifi meto an wi are ine#itab"7 srutinize b7 oters see3ing to is0ro#e tat wor3 at is w7 Iite an "in3 to as mu resear as is 0ossib"e, unres of stuies in te ase of tis arti"e :0inions are

irre"e#ant good e5am.le o& how scienti&ic e#idence dri#es our understanding concerns how weknow that humans are the dominant cause o& global warming' 4his is% o& course% the deniers)&a#orite to.ic' Since it is increasingl ob#ious that the climate is changing and the .lanet is

warming% the remaining deniers ha#e coalesced to de&end their lamo C that human emissionsaren)t the cause o& recent climate change and there&ore that reducing those emissions is.ointless' ;ast 7ear, "ongtime /ation o"umnist >"e5aner Co3burn wrote, ere is sti"" zero em0iria"e#iene tat antro0ogeni 0roution of C:2 is ma3ing an7 measurab"e ontribution to te wor"=s 0resent

warming tren e greenouse fearmongers re"7 entire"7 on un#erifie, rue"7 o#ersim0"ifie om0utermoe"s to finger man3in=s sinfu" ontributionO In fat, te e#iene is amazing"7 strong !oreo#er, if tere"ati#e"7 om0"e5 "imate moe"s are o#ersim0"ifie in an7 res0et, it is b7 omitting am0"if7ing feeba3s anoter fators tat suggest uman-ause "imate ange wi"" be worse tan is wie"7 rea"ize e I?CCon"ue "ast 7ear Greenouse gas foring as #er7 "i3e"7 (B6 0erent8 ause most of te obser#e g"oba"

warming o#er te "ast $6 7ears is on"usion ta3es into aount U te 0ossibi"it7 tat te res0onse to so"arforing ou" be unerestimate b7 "imate moe"sO Scientists ha#e come to understand thatL&orcingsM @natural and human-madeA e5.lain most o& the changes in our climate andtem.erature both in recent decades and o#er the .ast millions o& ears' 4he .rimar human-made &orcings are the heat-tra..ing greenhouse gases we generate% .articularl carbon dio5ide&rom burning coal% oil and natural gas' 4he natural &orcings include &luctuations in the intensito& sunlight @which can increase or decrease warmingA% and ma$or #olcanoes that in$ect huge

#olumes o& gases and aerosol .articles into the stratos.here @which tend to block sunlight andcause coolingAN' :#er an o#er again, sientists a#e emonstrate tat obser#e anges in te "imate inreent eaes an on"7 be e50"aine b7 ta3ing into aount te obser#e ombination of uman an natura"forings /atura" forings a"one ust on=t e50"ain wat is a00ening to tis 0"anet +or instane, in >0ri" 266$,one of te nation=s to0 "imate sientists, />S>=s James Fansen, "e a team of sientists tat mae 0reise

measurements of inreasing oean eat ontent o#er te 0ast 16 7ears,O wi re#ea"e tat te Eart isabsorbing far more eat tan it is emitting to s0ae, onfirming wat ear"ier om0uter moe"s a sownabout warming Fansen a""e tis energ7 imba"ane te smo3ing gunO of "imate ange, an sai, 4herecan no longer be genuine doubt that human-made gases are the dominant cause o& obser#ed

warmingO >noter 266$ stu7, "e b7 te Sri00s Institution of :eanogra07, om0are atua" oeantem0erature ata from te surfae own to unres of meters (in te >t"anti, ?aifi an Inian oeans8 wit"imate moe"s an on"ueK warming signal has .enetrated into the world)s oceans o#er the.ast F ears' 4he signal is com.le5% with a #ertical structure that #aries widel b ocean6 itcannot be e5.lained b natural internal climate #ariabilit or solar and #olcanic &orcing% but is

well simulated b two anthro.ogenicalluman-auseT &orced climate models' We concludethat it is o& human origin% a conclusion robust to obser#ational sam.ling and modeldi&&erences' Such studies are also done &or man other obser#ationsK land-based tem.eraturerise% atmos.heric tem.erature rise% sea le#el rise% arctic ice melt% inland glacier melt% Greelandand ntarctic ice sheet melt% e5.ansion o& the tro.ics @deserti&icationA and changes in.reci.itation Stuies om0are e#er7 testab"e 0reition from "imate ange teor7 an moe"s (ansuggeste b7 0a"eo"imate resear8 to atua" obser#ations Fow man7 stuies* We"", te I?CC=sefiniti#e treatment of te subet, ttributing C"imate Cange,O as 11 fu"" 0ages ofreferenes, some $66 0eer-re#iewe stuies is is not a onsensus of o0inion It is wat sientifi researan atua" obser#ations re#ea" >n te siene bein uman attribution as gotten mu stronger in te 0ast2 7ears (see a reent "iterature re#iew b7 te !et :ffie ere8 at brings us to anoter 0rob"em wit te woronsensusO It an mean unanimit7O or te ugment arri#e at b7 most of tose onerneO !an7, if notmost, 0eo0"e ear te seon meaning onsensusO as maorit7 o0inion e sientifi onsensus most 0eo0"eare fami"iar wit is te I?CC=s Summar7 for ?o"i7ma3ersO re0orts 9ut tose aren=t a maorit7 o0inionGo#ernment re0resentati#es 0artii0ate in a "ine-b7-"ine re#iew an re#ision of tese summaries So Cina,

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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming CoreSaui >rabia an tat otbe of enia"ism R te 9us aministration R get to #eto an7ting te7 on=t "i3ee eniers a"" tis 0o"itiize siene,O suggesting te 0roess turns te I?CC summaries into some sort ofunsientifi e5aggeration In fat, te re#erse is true e net resu"t is unanimous agreement on a onser#ati#eor watere-own oument .ou ou" argue tat rater tan maorit7 ru"es, tis is minorit7 ru"esO ;ast

>0ri", in an arti"e tit"e Conser#ati#e C"imate,O Sientifi >merian note tat obetions b7 Saui >rabia anCina "e te I?CC to remo#e a sentene stating tat te im0at of uman greenouse gas emissions on teEart=s reent warming is fi#e times greater tan tat of te sun In fat, "ea autor ?iers +orster of te

n i""ustrate guie to te "atest "imate sieneO an >nintroution to g"oba" warming im0ats Fe"" an Fig Water8

Warming is real and human caused an o#erwhelming amount o& scienti&ic e#idenceRahmstor& O(Stefan, ?rofessor at te ?ostam Institute for C"imate )esear, '>ntro0ogeni C"imateCange )e#isiting te +ats,'tt0%%www0i30otsame%Ystefan%?ub"iations%9oo3Na0ters%)amstorfNPei""oN266X0f8 WP

4his .a.er discussed the e#idence &or the anthro.ogenic increase in atmos.heric +2concentration and the e&&ect o& +2 on climate% Pnding that this anthro.ogenic increase is.ro#en beond reasonable doubt and that a mass o& e#idence .oints to a +2 e&&ect on climateo& Q+ 1'?+ global warming &or a doubling o& concentration (is is te "assi I?CC range m70ersona" assessment is tat, in te "igt of new stuies sine te I?CC ir >ssessment )e0ort, teunertaint7 range an now be narrowe somewat to &ZC [ 1ZC8 is is base on onsistent resu"ts fromteor7, moe"s, an ata ana"7sis, an, e#en in te absene of an7 om0uter moe"s, te same resu"t wou" sti""

o" base on 07sis an on ata from "imate istor7 a"one Consiering te 0"etora of onsistent e#iene,te ane tat tese on"usions are wrong as to be onsiere minute If te 0reeing is ae0te, ten itfo""ows "ogia""7 an inontro#ertib"7 tat a furter inrease in C:2 onentration wi"" "ea to furter warminge magnitue of our emissions e0ens on uman bea#ior, but te "imati res0onse to #arious emissionssenarios an be om0ute from te information 0resente ere e resu"t is te famous range of futureg"oba" tem0erature senarios sown in \gure &-$6 wo aitiona" ste0s are in#o"#e in tese om0utationste onsieration of antro0ogeni forings oter tan C:2 (for e5am0"e, oter greenouse gases anaeroso"s8 an te om0utation of onentrations from te emissions :ter gases are not isusse ere,a"toug te7 are im0ortant to get 4uantitati#e"7 aurate resu"ts +2 is the largest and most im.ortant&orcing' +oncerning concentrations% the scenarios shown basicall assume that ocean and

bios.here take u. a similar share o& our emitted +2 as in the .ast' is ou" turn out to be ano0timisti assum0tion some moe"s iniate te 0ossibi"it7 of a 0ositi#e feeba3, wit te bios0ere turninginto a arbon soure rater tan a sin3 uner growing "imati stress$1 It is "ear tat e#en in te moreo0timisti of te sown (non-mitigation8 senarios, g"oba" tem0erature wou" rise b7 2H&ZC abo#e its0reinustria" "e#e" b7 te en of tis entur7 E#en for a 0a"eo"imato"ogist "i3e m7se"f, tis is ane5traorinari"7 ig tem0erature, wi is #er7 "i3e"7 un0reeente in at "east te 0ast 166,666 7ears >s faras te ata sow, we wou" a#e to go ba3 about & mi""ion 7ears, to te ?"ioene, for om0arab"etem0eratures' 4he rate o& this warming @which is im.ortant &or the abilit o& ecosstems to co.eAis also highl unusual and un.recedented .robabl &or an e#en longer time' e "ast maor g"oba"

warming tren ourre wen te "ast great Ie >ge ene between 1$,666 an 16,666 7ears ago tis was awarming of about $ZC o#er $,666 7ears, tat is, a rate of on"7 61ZC 0er entur7$24he e5.ected magnitudeand rate o& .lanetar warming is highl likel to come with ma$or risks and im.acts in terms o&sea le#el rise @liocene sea le#el was 2?Q? meters higher than now due to smaller Greenlandand ntarctic ice sheetsA% e5treme e#ents @&or e5am.le% hurricane acti#it is e5.ected to

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http://www.pik/http://potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/Rahmstorf_Zedillo_2008.pdfhttp://www.pik/http://potsdam.de/~stefan/Publications/Book_chapters/Rahmstorf_Zedillo_2008.pdf


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreincrease in a warmer climateA% and ecosstem loss$& e seon 0art of tis 0a0er e5amine tee#iene for te urrent warming of te 0"anet an isusse wat is 3nown about its auses 4his .artshowed that global warming is alread a measured and well-established &act% not a theor'9an di&&erent lines o& e#idence consistentl show that most o& the obser#ed warming o& the.ast &i&t ears was caused b human acti#it' bo#e all% this warming is e5actl what would bee5.ected gi#en the anthro.ogenic rise in greenhouse gases% and no #iable alternati#ee5.lanation &or this warming has been .ro.osed in the scientiPc literature' 4aken together% the

#er strong e#idence% accumulated &rom thousands o& inde.endent studies% has o#er the .astdecades con#inced #irtuall e#er climatologist around the world @man o& whom were initiall8uite ske.tical% including msel&A that anthro.ogenic global warming is a realit with which weneed to deal'

Warming is anthro.ogenicWood


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreanel on +limate +hange @(++A'at 7ear, for te first time, te re0ort sai tat 'te ba"ane of e#iene suggests a isernib"euman inf"uene on g"oba" "imate' at measure statement as, of ourse, been ramatia""7 strengtene in te "atest I?CC re0ort, wi on"uestat tere is a greater tan B6 0erent "i3e"ioo tat uman ati#ities a#e been te main ause of warming sine te mi"e of te twentiet entur7Santers utting-ege resear "e to wies0rea a"aim from is o""eagues an earne im man7 ao"aes, in"uing a !a>rtur 'genius grant,' butis ig-0rofi"e ro"e in te 1BB$ I?CC re0ort mae im a target of tose tr7ing to stir u0 ontro#ers7 an onfuse te 0ub"i about g"oba" warming +orinstane, after te 1BB$ re0ort was issue, an inustr7Hfune grou0 "e an effort to isreit Santer 0ersona""7 b7 s0urious"7 "aiming tat e aa"tere te I?CCs finings Fe a not '/oting in m7 uni#ersit7 training 0re0are me for wat I fae in te aftermat of tat re0ort,' Santer sa7s ofte #iious 0ersona" atta3s b7 fossi"-fue" interests '.ou are 0re0are as a sientist to efen 7our resear 9ut I was not 0re0are to efen m7

0ersona" integrit7 I ne#er imagine I a#e to o tat' Hi&teen ears later% the e#idence that human acti#it is

causing global warming is stronger than e#er and acce.ted b the o#erwhelming ma$orit o&scientists' ur understanding o& climate &inger.rinting has also become &ar more so.histicatedand now shows human causation in the measured changes in ocean tem.eratures% rctic seaice% .reci.itation% atmos.heric moisture% and man other as.ects o& climate change' Some o&Santer0s more recent work% &or instance% addresses changes in the height o& the tro.o.auseCthe

boundar between the tro.os.here% the more turbulent lower laer% and the more stablestratos.here abo#e' @Between ? and 1 miles abo#e the earth0s sur&ace% a marker o& thetro.o.ause can be seen in the &lat% an#il-like to. o& a thundercloud'A 9easurements o#er thecourse o& se#eral recent decades ha#e shown that the tro.o.ause has risen markedl' Bstuding tro.o.ause changes in com.uter climate models% and com.aring model out.ut withobser#ations%Santer was ab"e to sow tat bot te warming of te "ower atmos0ere an oo"ing of te stratos0ere "e to a rise in te eigtof te tro0o0auseRan tat te obser#e rise in te tro0o0ause mate te finger0rint of an inrease in eat-tra00ing gases '/obo7 a "oo3e at itbefore,' Santer sa7s, 'but te ata sowe "ear"7 tat natura" auses a"one sim0"7 ou" not 0ro#ie a on#ining e50"anation for te obser#e ange'

>"" te "imate finger0rinting resear to ate, Santer e50"ains, as arri#e at te same on"usion, name"7 tat'natural causes cannot.ro#ide a con#incing e5.lanation &or the .articular .atterns o& climate change we see' 4hat% hesas% is wh scientists ha#e come to ha#e such con&idence in our understanding o& what isha..eningCnot because o& the claims o& an one indi#idual% but because o& the breadth o&scienti&ic work and re.roducibilit o& the results'

Warming is anthro.ogenic - e#en i& there are alt causes% human emissions are the biggest &actorHitz.atrick T(!e"anie +itz0atri3, Eart an S0ae Sienes an >tmos0eri Sienes at te tmos0ere Sifts )eent researsows tat uman ati#ities a#e "ifte te bounar7 of Earts "ower atmos0ere Known as te tro0os0ere (from te Gree3 tro0os, wi means'turning'8, tis "owest "a7er of te atmos0ere ontains Earts weater e stab"e "a7er abo#e is a""e te stratos0ere e bounar7 tat se0arateste two "a7ers, te tro0o0ause, is as ig as nine mi"es abo#e te e4uator an as "ow as fi#e mi"es abo#e te 0o"es In an astouning e#e"o0ment, a 266&stu7 sowe tat tis tro0o0ause as sifte u0war o#er te "ast two eaes b7 more tan B66 feet 16T e rising tro0o0ause mar3s anoter umanfinger0rint on Earts "imate In teir sear for "ues, sientists om0are two natura" ri#ers of "imate (so"ar anges an #o"ani aeroso"s8 antree uman ri#ers of "imate (eat-tra00ing emissions, aeroso" 0o""ution, an ozone e0"etion8, a"tering tese one at a time in teir so0istiatemoe"s Canges in te sun uring te twentiet entur7 a#e warme bot te tro0os0ere an stratos0ere 9ut uman ati#ities a#e inrease eat-tra00ing emissions an erease stratos0eri ozone is as "e to te tro0os0ere warming more beause te inrease in eat-tra00ing emissions istra00ing more of Earts outgoing eat e stratos0ere as oo"e more beause tere is "ess ozone to absorb inoming sun"igt to eat u0 testratos0ere 9ot tese effets ombine to sift te bounar7 u0war :#er te 0erio 1B@B-1BBB, a stu7 sows tat uman-inue anges in eat-tra00ing emissions an ozone aount for more tan X6 0erent of te rise in tro0o0ause eigt 16T is is 7et anoter e5am0"e of ow sieneeteti#es are 4uantif7ing te im0at of uman ati#ities on "imate +inger0rint & e Surfae Feats


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coretem0erature as risen b7 1A egrees +areneit in te "ast 166 7ears, wit most of tat a00ening in te "ast tree eaes 1,2T 97 om0aring Eartstem0erature o#er tat "ast entur7 wit moe"s om0aring "imate ri#ers, a stu7 sowe tat, from 1B$6 to te 0resent, most of te warming wasause b7 eat-tra00ing emissions from uman ati#ities &T In fat, eat-tra00ing emissions are ri#ing te "imate about tree times more strong"7

now tan te7 were in 1B$64he s.atial .attern o& where this warming is occurring around the globeindicates human-induced causes' J#en accounting&or the occasionalshort-li#ed cooling&rom

#olcanic e#ents and moderate le#els o& cooling &rom aerosol .ollution as well as minor&luctuations in the sun0s out.ut in the last Q ears% heat-tra..ingemissions &ar outweigh another current climatedri#er' nce again% our scienti&ic &inger.rinting identi&ies humanacti#ities as the main dri#er o& our warming climate' :uman +auses% :uman Solutions

11


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4K Bias

Scientists are unbiased and mostl agree that warming is real

Bowman =F()obert ! ;t C", ?resient of te Institute for S0ae an Seurit7 Stuies, Wat >boutG"oba" Warming*O, tt0%%wwwrmbowmanom%ssn%warmingtm8 K>

/atura""7, if I in=t tin3 it was rea", I wou"n=t be writing tis 0a0er 9ut te 0o""uters an teir mout0iees ("i3e )us ;imbaug8 "aim it=s ust abun of ot air +re ?a"mer of te Western +ue"s >ssoiation (a front for oa" an oter or0orate interests8, for e5am0"e, sa7s, 'Known a0oa"70tig"oba" warming a#oates, in teir zea" to on#ine te wor" tat te o"oaust wi"" be u0on us un"ess we urtai" our use of fossi" fue"s, om0oseon"usions wi ignore atua" obser#ations Sate""ites, tat measure te wor"=s tem0erature so aurate"7 tat te7 an etet wen te moon is

fu"", fin no warming watsoe#er in teir entire 1X-7ear reor' :n te oter an, most o& the world)s scientists% actingthrough the (nternational anel on +limate +hange @(++A ha#e reached consensus on the &actthat Global Warming is real and is alread ha..ening Dan 9e3er of te Sierra C"ub (a moerate en#ironmenta" grou08sa7s, '>ssertions tat sate""ite reors sow no g"oba" warming are eiter misinforme or intentiona""7 untrue 4he realit is that the lastQ ears ha#e seen the warmest sur&ace tem.eratures in recorded histor% and the ha#e beendocumented not b alarmists% but b res.onsible% unbiased scientists &rom ,S% ,% andcountless uni#ersities and research institutions around the world' e a#erage surfae tem0erature of te firstse#en 7ears of te 1BB6=s is a"rea7 iger tan te a#erage for te entire eae of te 1BX6=s (te 1BX6=s a 0re#ious"7 been te warmest eae inreore istor78' J W >nerson of )esoures for te +uture (a non-0rofit resear grou0 wit en#ironmenta" "eanings8 agrees tat surfaetem0eratures a#e risen a fu"" egree sine re"iab"e measurements began, an tat reent eaes are te warmest sine at "east 1A66 (;itt"e is 3nown

about te eart=s "imate before tat time8 #er two thousand scientists ha#e now concluded that globalwarming is alread changing our climate 1BB$ was te warmest 7ear sine umans began 3ee0ing aurate measurements oftem0erature ()eent ata iniates tat it won=t o" tat istintion for "ong R 1BB@ as been e#en otter8 Sientists are oumenting te ra0ime"ting of g"aiers Snow o#er is me"ting mu ear"ier in te 7ear :ean tem0eratures a#e warme, sea "e#e"s a#e risen a"most one foot, an te0atterns of ee0 sea urrents are sifting >#erage surfae tem0eratures in >ntartia a#e risen two egrees +areneit sine 1B$6 In 1BBA, warmingtem0eratures ause a AX b7 22 mi"e un3 to brea3 off from te ;arsen ie se"f, e50osing ro3s tat a been enase in ie for o#er 26,666 7ears?ermafrost in >"as3a is tawing, treatening te oi" 0i0e"ine, bu3"ing igwa7s, an ausing oter a#o e ten ottest 7ears in reore istor7 a#ea"" ta3en 0"ae sine 1BX6V Wit te Sierra C"ub, te /atura" )esoure Defense Couni", an sientists aroun te wor", ISSS be"ie#es tat te e#ieneis inis0utab"e G"oba" Warming is rea"

12
http://www.rmbowman.com/ssn/warming.htmhttp://www.rmbowman.com/ssn/warming.htm


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4K (dsos

(dsos are .aid o&&/nion o& +oncerned Scientists% 2>()es0oning to G"oba" Warming S3e0tisR?rominent S3e0tis :rganizationsO,

tt0%%wwwususaorg%g"oba"Nwarming%siene%s3e0ti-organizationstm"8Greening Eart Soiet7 e Greening Eart Soiet7 (GES8 was foune on Eart Da7 1BBX b7 te Western +ue"s >ssoiation to 0romote te #iewtat inreasing "e#e"s of atmos0eri C:2 are goo for umanit7 GES an Western +ue"s are essentia""7 te same organization 9ot use to be"oate at te same offie suite in >r"ington, > bout C"imate SieneO, +ebruar7, tt0%%wwwususaorg%ssi%ari#e%"imate-misinformationtm"8(n an attem.t to bank on the credibilit science generall en$os and to &ight o&& accusationso& making unscienti&ic% biased claims% ske.tics also .ursue the idea i& ou can0t beat them%

$oin themCi& onl in a..earance' JY9;JK 4he +enter &or the Stud o& +arbon Dio5ide and Global +hange 4his .seudo-scienti&ic research center"oate in em0e, >P, wo are a"so in#o"#e wit te Greening Eart Soiet7 In a 0osition 0a0er on g"oba" warming1&T, te two autors (te on"7 "iste staff of te Center8 state, 'ere is "itt"e oubt te airs C:2 onentration as risen signifiant"7 sine teine0tion of te Inustria" )e#o"ution an tere are few wo o not attribute te C:2 inrease to te inrease in umanit7s use of fossi" fue"s ereis a"so "itt"e oubt tat te eart as warme s"igt"7 o#er te same 0erio but tere is no om0e""ing reason to be"ie#e tat te rise in tem0eraturewas ause b7 te rise in C:2 +urtermore it is ig"7 un"i3e"7 tat future inreases in te airs C:2 ontent wi"" 0roue an7 g"oba" warming for

tere are numerous 0rob"ems wit te 0o0u"ar 70otesis tat "in3s te two 0enomena' 4he authors then go on to &lesh outthese .roblems with scienti&ic $argon% criticizing unscienti&ic inter.retations% anddebunking claims ne#er made b serious climate scientists' 4he scienti&ic .ositions held b+enter sta&& are not sub$ected to .eer-re#iew% and the +enter0s Scienti&ic d#isors are mostlretired scientists without .ast or current research in climate-related sciences' It is not "ear weterte C:2 Center is atua""7 a se0arate entit7 from te Greening Eart Soiet7

1&
http://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/archive/climate-misinformation.htmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/archive/climate-misinformation.htmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/archive/climate-misinformation.htmlhttp://www.ucsusa.org/ssi/archive/climate-misinformation.html


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4K da.tion

da.tation isn)t su&&icient reducing emissions ke+enter &or +limate and Jnerg Solutions% recentl named the world)s to. en#ironmental thinktank% 211

(June 2611, Center for C"imate an Energ7 So"utions, Siene +>Qs,O tt0%%www2esorg%g"oba"-warming-basis%fa4Ns%g"aneNfa4Nsienefm, aesse @%12%1&, C9C8

Fowe#er, di&&erent regions and sectors will di&&er in their abilit to ada.t' ,atural ecosstemsha#e inherent% but limited ca.abilit to ada.t to climate change% which is &urther im.eded bother human im.acts to the en#ironment such as de#elo.ment and habitat &ragmentation' J#enhuman societies%0artiu"ar"7 e#e"o0ing ountries, ha#e limited resources to res.ond to thechallenge o& climate change' oor countries and .oor .o.ulations within rich countries will bedis.ro.ortionatel im.acted b climate change because o& their limited resources &orada.tation'Some climate related im.acts are di&&icult to ada.t to' +or e5am0"e, e5treme weater e#ents, su asstorms an f"oos, are not easi"7 ame"iorate b7 aa0tation measures B in#esting in the reduction o&greenhouse gases% it will o&&set necessar in#estments in ada.tation in addition to .rotecting

against those ad#erse e&&ects o& climate change &or which ada.tation is .articularl di&&icult' (tisclear that res.onding to climate change re8uires both mitigation o& greenhouse gases andada.tation to una#oidable change'

/ncertaint and limitation on tech .re#ent short-term ada.tationStern% head o& the Go#ernment Jconomic Ser#ice and ad#iser to the Go#ernment on theJconomics o& +limate +hange and De#elo.ment% 2T

(/io"as, Stern )e#iew )e0ort on te Eonomis of C"imate Cange,O 0A1&, tt0%%webari#enationa"ari#esgo#u3%^%tt0%%wwwm-treasur7go#u3%meia%C%2%Ca0terN1XNa0tation0f,

aesse @%12%1&, C9C8

n inherent di&&icult &or long-term ada.tation decisions is uncertaint% due to limitations inour I scienti&ic knowledge o& a highl com.le5 climate sstem and the likel im.acts o&.erturbing it' J#en asI scienti&ic understanding im.ro#es% there will alwas remain someresidual uncertaint% as the size o&I im.acts also de.end on global e&&orts to control greenhousegas emissions' J&&ecti#e ada.tation willI in#ol#e decisions that are robust to a range o& .lausibleclimate &utures and are &le5ible so the can beI modi&ied relati#el easil' But there will alwas

be a cost to hedging bets in this wa% com.ared to the I e5.ert


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4K But it)s cold

Distinction (t)s about global tem.erature a#erages not regional isolated e#ents coldconditions could also be an indicator &or warming'+enter &or +limate and Jnerg Solutions% reent"7 name te wor"=s to0 en#ironmenta" tin3 tan3,

211(June 2611, Center for C"imate an Energ7 So"utions, Siene +>Qs,O tt0%%www2esorg%g"oba"-warming-basis%fa4Ns%g"aneNfa4Nsienefm, aesse @%12%1&, C9C8

Global warming is about changes in long-term a#erages and not about single e#ents6 it does notmean an end to cold weather' (nstead% it means that cold weather will become less &re8uent andhot weather more &re8uent when a#eraged o#er decades' In fat, bot of tese trens a#e beenobser#e o#er te 0ast $6 7ears in te


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4K +hina

+hina would model /S action on climate changeGardner% orres0onent on energ7 an te en#ironment, 2>

(imot7, :t 2, Srib, E50erts Sa7 Cina Wou" +o""ow


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreannounced an alternati#e energ .lanning .rogramme which would in#est ?% billion uan(_A@6bn8 between 2611 an 2626, creating 1? million $obs in the sector'e 0"an was announe b7Jiang 9ing, te ea of te /ationa" Energ7 >ministration, wo sai te bureau en#isages tat, b7 261$,natura" gas wou" aount for X& 0er ent of energ7, wit 7ro0ower an nu"ear 0ower um0ing from @ 0erent to B 0er ent of 0rimar7 energ7 onsum0tion Win0ower, so"ar 0ower an biomass wou" inrease from"ess tan 1 0er ent now to a"most 2 0er ent of te tota" M ere are oter grounbrea3ing 0roets ta3ing0"ae +hina installed the &irst ma$or o&&shore wind .ro$ect outside o& Juro.e last ear, aing

&!W b7 7ear-en for a 0roet tat reae 162!W ear"ier tis 7ear Si ?engfei of te Cina F7ro0owerEngineering onsu"ting grou0 be"ie#es Cina as te best an te newest win turbines 97 te en of 266B,Cina=s tota" a0ait7 of win0ower o0erations inrease b7 B22 0er ent om0are wit te same 0erio of266X,O Si saiM>"toug Cina ao0te some musu"ar negotiating tatis at te Co0enagen summit on"imate ange, an some ountries ause 9eiing of ia3ing te ta"3s, the smart mone is on +hina)se&&orts to boost green technolog and clean energ o.tions' +hina has .ledged to cut theintensit o& carbon emissions .er unit o& its gross domestic .roduct(GD?8 in 2626b F to F?.er centagainst 266$ "e#e"s Wi"e tis wi"" not ut te o#era"" amount of emissions, it is a ste0 in te rigtiretion ?ost-Co0enagen, Cina nees to ontinue its omesti efforts to im0ro#e green te ansustainabi"it7, an I=m onfient it wi"" Cina sou" a"so see a strong eman for it to 0"a7 a "eaersi0 ro"einternationa""7,O sai .ang >i"un, te ea of C"imate an Energ7 at Green0eae Cina +hina is committedto de#elo.ing clean energ because o& all the domestic im.erati#es to do so' (t)s good &or energ

securit and it)s good &or economic de#elo.ment' nnouncing a target was an e&&ort to be seenas willing to do its &air share ,O .ang saiM 4he +hinese go#ernment is in#esting serious resourcesto sto. .ollution, an bining reution targets a#e been in"ue in te entra" go#ernment=s 11t +i#e-

.ear ?"an to ontro" te isarges of 3e7 water 0o""utants, su as emia" o57gen eman (C:D8 ansu"0ur io5ie Cina=s ie-!inister of En#ironmenta" ?rotetion, ;i Ganie, sai in Deember if it aie#es areution in tese 0o""utants, tis wou" resu"t in a reution of 2$6 mi""ion tons in C:2 emissions .ang

be"ie#es te main 0otentia" in "ean energ7 "ies in energ7 effiien7 an "ean energ7 teno"og7 :ne area of0artiu"ar interest is ow to ma3e more effiient ars H +hina is alread a world leader in electric cars'ther areas include wind energ% and solar energ% where +hina is alread a to.-threemanu&acturer e so"ar mar3et is main"7 manufaturing for e50ort but growt is s"owing, so it=s now ruia"for te go#ernment to gi#e su00ort for te omesti mar3et,O e sai M Fuang !in, te founer of te FiminSo"ar Energ7 Grou0 in Dezou, is on a 4uest to on#ine is fe""ow Cinese of te nee to go green +hina

has alread made a .romise on emissions reduction' (t shows +hina can beha#e like a bigcountr and it shows the +hinese go#ernment is committed' 4his .romise is not onl achallenge% but a huge business o..ortunit' 4his .ledge li&ts +hina on to the global .olitical andeconomic stage,O sai FuangWhen it comes to issues o& sustainabilit% +hina is too big to beignored'

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4K +2 &rom oceans

Hossil &uels are the root cause o& +2 emissions multi.le indicators .ro#e9ackie% /ew Pea"an emia" oeanogra0er,21

(Doug, June 2, S3e0tia" Siene, C:2 is Coming from te :ean,Ott0%%wwws3e0tia"sieneom%o2-oming-from-oeantm, aesse @%12%1&, C9C8

We can be con&ident the e5tra +2 in the atmos.here has come &rom the o5idation o& &ossil&uels and not &rom outgassing &rom the ocean or &rom soilEland sources b using two keobser#ations'I tmos.heric o5gen is going down b the same amount as atmos.heric +2 isgoing u.' 5gen is so abundantat about 21 (26B,$66 00m8 that we are in no danger o& runningout6 the change in o5gen sim.l shows that whate#er the source o& +2 in the atmos.here% thecarbon .art o& it has come &rom the o5idation o& reduced carbon com.ounds and the o5genhas come &rom o5gen gas in the atmos.here' 4hat is% the e5tra +2 was not released in the&orm o& +2 &rom an unknown source but instead some reduced carbon com.ound was burntin the atmos.here to .roduce +2 M !ost ob#ious"7, an alternati#e e5.lanationfor te soure of teC:2 in te atmos0ere has to also come u. with where the Q billion tonnes o& +2 known to bereleased b &ossil &uel burning each ear goesM>tmos0eri C:2 is urrent"7 inreasing at about 200m# 0er 7ear (or 1 bi""ion tonnes8 at is, on"7 aroun a"f of te C:2 we re"ease remains in teatmos0ere 4he .: decrease in the oceans corres.onds to most o& the LmissingM +2% so we canalso be con&ident that land use changes etc are not a ma$or source%sin3 Ca#eatK ;and use and

biomassanges ertain"7 soak u.a "ot of +2%some it sim0"7 regrowt of forests et,but the .oint isthat the increasing +2 in the atmos.here clearl demonstrates that the do not soak u.enough'

1X


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4K Jl ,ino

Jl ,ino can)t e5.lain warming our authors mis&iltered data+ook% ?enn State !etereo"og7 ?rofessor, ?rofessor of En#ironmenta" Siene at >u3"an oring to one of its autors, 9ob Carter, te 0a0er foun tatte '"ose re"ationsi0 between E/S: an g"oba" tem0erature, as esribe in te 0a0er, "ea#es "itt"e room foran7 warming ri#en b7 uman arbon io5ie emissions' 4his result is in strong contrast with twodecades o& .eer-re#iewed research which &ind J,S has little in&luence on long-term trends'

W7 theisre0an7* > res0onse as now been ae0te for .ublicationin te Journa" of Geo07sia")esear (+oster et a" 26168 e50"aining w7 !;ean 266B di&&ers &rom the bod o& .eer-re#iewedresearch'M Hirst% let0s e5amine how 9c;ean et al arri#ed at their conclusion' 4he com.ared

both weather balloon @R4+A and satellite @/:A measurements o& tro.os.herictem.erature to Jl ,iZo acti#it @S(A' o remo#e sort-term noise, te7 0"otte a 12 mont runninga#erage of G"oba" ro0os0eri em0erature >noma"7 (G>, te "igt gre7 "ine8 an te Soutern :si""ationIne5 (S:I, te b"a3 "ine8M 4he Southern scillation (nde5 shows no long term trend while thetem.erature record shows a long-term warming trend' +onse8uentl% 9c;ean et al &ound onla weak correlation between tem.erature and S(' ,e5t% the a..lied another &ilter to the data

b subtracting the 12 month running a#erage &rom the same a#erage 1 ear later' 4hecom.arison between the &iltered data &or Jl ,ino and 4em.erature are as &ollowsKI Hrom thisclose correlation% 9c;ean et al argued that more than two thirds o& interseasonal and long-term #ariabilit in tem.erature changes can be e5.lained b the Southern scillation (nde5'4his result contradicts #irtuall e#er other stud into the connection between J,S andtem.erature #ariabilit% .articularl with regard to long-term warming trends ?ast ana"7ses a#e

foun E/S: was res0onsib"e for 1$ to &6 of interseasona" #ariabi"it7 but "itt"e of te g"oba" warming treno#er te 0ast a"f entur7 (Jones 1BXB, Wig"e7 2666, Santer 2661, renbert 2662, om0son 266X8 Whdoes 9c;ean come to a di&&erent result! 4his 8uestion is e5amined in +omment on (n&luenceo& the Southern scillation on tro.os.heric tem.eratureb7 J D !;ean, C ) e +reitas, an ) !Carter (+oster et a" 26168M Hoster et al e5amine the &iltering .rocess that 9c;ean et al a..lied tothe tem.erature and J,S data' 4his &iltering has two ste.s - the take 12-month mo#inga#erages then take the di&&erences between those #alues which are 12 months a.art' 4he &irstste. &ilters the high-&re8uenc #ariation &rom the time series while the second ste. &ilters low-&re8uenc #ariation' e 0rob"em wit te "atter ste0 is it remo#es an7 "ong-term trens from te origina"tem0erature ata e "ong-term warming tren in te tem0erature reor is were te isagreement betweentem0erature an E/S: is greatestMW7 o !;ean et a" remo#e te "ong-term tren* e7 ustif7 it b7 notinga "a3 of orre"ation between S:I an G>, s0eu"ating tat te eri#ati#e fi"ter migt remo#e noise ause

b7 #o"anoes or win Fowe#er, ta3ing te eri#ati#e of a time series oes not remo#e, or e#en reue, sort-term noise It as te o00osite effet, am0"if7ing te noise wi"e remo#ing "onger-term anges M o furteri""ustrate ow te fi"tering 0roess inreases te orre"ation between S:I an tem0erature, te autorsonstrut an artifiia" 'tem0erature' time series as -662 times te S:I time series e7 ten a wite noisean a "inear tren is as te effet of reating a tem0erature time series wit a "ong term warming trene orre"ation between te raw artifiia" tem0erature series an te S:I series is #er7 "ow ()2 ` 66118Fowe#er, wen te !;ean et a" fi"ters are a00"ie to bot time series, te orre"ation is now #er7 ig ()2 `6X2B$8 is is beause te fi"tering remo#es "ow fre4uen7 e"ements su as te "ong term warming tren MDes0ite te e5treme istorting effet of teir fi"ter, !;ean et a" onsistent"7 refer to te orre"ations as

between S:I an tro0os0eri tem0erature' 4he draw no attention to the &act that the correlationsare between hea#il &iltered time series' 4his &ailure causes what is essentiall a mistaken resultto be misinter.reted as a direct relationshi. between im.ortant climate #ariables'I >noter

1B


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreinteresting feature of !;ean et a" 266B is a 0"ot of unfi"tere tem0erature ata (G>8 against te Soutern:si""ation Ine5 (S:I8 to i""ustrate te 4ua"it7 of te mat between tem Fowe#er te tem0erature signa" isa s0"ie of weater ba""oon ata ()>?>C->8 to te en of 1B@B fo""owe b7 sate""ite ata (F ;8 sine1BX6 )>?>C-> ata sow a 0ronoune warming tren from 1B6 to 266X wit te tem0erature "ine risingawa7 from te S:I "ine is warming tren is obsure b7 substituting te weater ba""oon ata wit sate""iteata after 1BX6 It is es0eia""7 mis"eaing beause te mean #a"ues of )>?>C-> an F ; ata uringteir 0erio of o#er"a0 iffer b7 near"7 62 K S0"iing tem togeter introues an artifiia" 62-egree

tem0erature ro0 at te bounar7 between te two


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4K :olocene warm .eriod

4he :olocene was onl regional warming natural causes can)t account &or modern climatechange,% 2O

(/ationa" :eani an >tmos0eri >ministration, >ug 26, /ationa" C"imati Data Center, '!i-Fo"oene Warm ?erio - >bout ,666 .ears >go,'tt0%%wwwnnoaago#%0a"eo%g"oba"warming%o"oenetm", aesse @%12%1&, C9C8

aleoclimatologists ha#e long sus.ected that the middle :olocene or a .eriod roughl &rom>% to ?% ears ago% was warmer than the .resenta7 erms "i3e te >"ti-terma" or F70si-terma" or C"imati :0timum a#e a"" been use to refer to tis warm 0erio tat mar3e te mi"e of teurrent interg"aia" 0erio 4oda, owe#er,we knowtat tese terms are obso"ete an that the truth o&the :olocene is more com.licated than originall belie#ed' I What is most remarkable aboutthe mid-:olocene is that we now ha#e a good understanding o& both the global .atterns o&tem.erature change during that .eriod ,D what caused them' It a00ears "ear tat anges in teEarts orbit a#e o0erate s"ow"7 o#er tousans an mi""ions of 7ears to ange te amount of so"ar raiation

reaing ea "atituina" ban of te Eart uring ea mont ese orbita" anges an be easi"7 a"u"atean 0reit tat te nortern emis0ere sou" a#e been warmer tan toa7 uring te mi-Fo"oene in tesummer >/D o"er in te winter e 0a"eo"imati ata for te mi-Fo"oene sows tese e50ete anges,owe#er, there is no e#idence to show that the a#erage annual mid-:olocene tem.erature was

warmer than toda0s tem.eratures' We also now know &rom both data and astronomical(or'!i"an3o#it'8 theor that the .eriod o& abo#e modern summer tem.eratures did not occur atthe same time around the northern hemis.here% or in the southern hemis.here at all' M Insummar7, te mi-Fo"oene, roug"7 ,666 7ears ago, was genera""7 warmer tan toa7, but on"7 in summeran on"7 in te nortern emis0ere !ore o#er, we "ear"7 3now te ause of tis natura" warming, an 3now

witout oubt tat tis 0ro#en 'astronomia"' "imate foring meanism annot be res0onsib"e for tewarming o#er te "ast 166 7earsM +or "arger #iewing #ersion of te gra0, 0"ease "i3 ere or on gra0 Gra0ourtes7 of Kerwin et a", 1BBB, om0"ete sientifi referene "oate ere

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4K (ne#itableEtoo late to sol#e

Warming is not ine#itable signi&icant cuts sol#eSomer#ille% 0rofessor of :eanogra07 at


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coresuffie I sus0et tat few now a"i#e wi"" see te a7 wen we serious"7 start wor3 on bringing te onentration

ba3 own to &$6, so "et us fous ere on ow to sto0 it rising 0ast A$6

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4K 9edie#al Warm eriod

Best data .ro#es global tem.erature a#erages are higher now than the 9edie#al warm .eriod

,% 2O(/ationa" :eani an >tmos0eri >ministration, >ug 26, /ationa" C"imati Data Center, 'e!eie#a" Warm ?erio,'tt0%%wwwnnoaago#%0a"eo%g"oba"warming%meie#a"tm", aesse@%12%1&, C9C8

,orse sea&aring and colonization around the ,orth tlantic at the end o& the =th centurindicated that regional ,orth tlantic climate was warmer during medie#al times than duringthe cooler ;ittle (ce ge o& the 1?th - 1=th centuries' s .aleoclimatic records ha#e becomemore numerous% it has become a..arent that 9edie#al Warm eriod or 9edie#al .timumtem.eratures were warmer o#er the ,orthern :emis.here than during the subse8uent ;ittle(ce ge% and also com.arable to tem.eratures during the earl 2th centur' e regiona"

0atterns an te magnitue of tis warmt remain an area of ati#e resear beause te ata beome s0arsegoing ba3 in time 0rior to te "ast four enturies M e 0"ot be"ow, from te Intergo#ernmenta" ?ane" onC"imate Cange +ourt >ssessment )e0ort (266@8, sows numerous /ortern Femis0ere 0a"eo"imatitem0erature reonstrutions 4he #arious studies di&&er in methodolog% and in the underling.aleoclimate .ro5 data utilized% but all reconstruct the same basic .attern o& cool ;ittle (ce

ge% warmer 9edie#al Warm eriod% and still warmer late 2th and 21st centurtem.eratures'M In summar7, it a00ears tat te "ate 26t an ear"7 21st enturies are "i3e"7 te warmest0erio te Eart as seen in at "east 1266 7ears +or a summar7 of te "atest a#ai"ab"e resear on te nature of"imate uring te '!eie#a" Warm ?erio', 0"ease see 9o5 A of te I?CC 266@ ?a"aeo"imate a0ter o"earn more about te '!eie#a" Warm ?erio', 0"ease rea tis re#iew 0ub"ise in C"imati Cange, written

b7 !K Fuges an F+ Diaz (C"i3 ere for om0"ete re#iew referene8 Disussion of te "ast 2,666 7ears,in"uing te !eie#a" Warm ?erio, an regiona" 0atterns an unertainties, a00ears in te /ationa"

)esear Couni" )e0ort tit"e 'Surfae em0erature )eonstrutions for te ;ast 2,666 .ears', a#ai"ab"e fromte /ationa" >aem7 ?ress

2A
http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/medieval.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/medieval.htmlhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/medieval.html


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4K ,atural +cle

Warming is un.recedented onl human &actors can account &or climatic data in the 2th and21stcenturies

(++% (ntergo#ernmental anel on +limate +hange% 211(Can te Warming of te 26tCentur7 be E50"aine b7 /atura" ariabi"it7*,Ott0s%%wwwi0unibe%0ub"iations%wg1-arA%fa4%wg1Nfa4-B2tm", aesse @%12%1&, C9C8

(t is #er unlikel that the 2th-centur warming can be e5.lained b natural causes' 4he late2th centur has been unusuall warm'?a"aeo"imati reonstrutions sow tat te seon a"f of te26t entur7 was "i3e"7 te warmest $6-7ear 0erio in te /ortern Femis0ere in te "ast 1&66 7ears 4hisra.id warming is consistent with the scienti&ic understanding o& how the climate shouldres.ond to a ra.id increase in greenhouse gases like that which has occurred o#er the .astcentur% and the warming is inconsistent with the scienti&ic understanding o& how the climateshould res.ond to natural e5ternal &actors such as #ariabilit in solar out.ut and #olcanicacti#it'C"imate moe"s 0ro#ie a suitab"e too" to stu7 te #arious inf"uenes on te Eart=s "imate Wen

te effets of inreasing "e#e"s of greenouse gases are in"ue in te moe"s, as we"" as natura" e5terna"fators, te moe"s 0roue goo simu"ations of te warming tat as ourre o#er te 0ast entur7 emoe"s fai" to re0roue te obser#e warming wen run using on"7 natura" fators Wen uman fators arein"ue, te moe"s a"so simu"ate a geogra0i 0attern of tem0erature ange aroun te g"obe simi"ar to tat

wi as ourre in reent eaes is s0atia" 0attern, wi as features su as a greater warming atig nortern "atitues, iffers from te most im0ortant 0atterns of natura" "imate #ariabi"it7 tat areassoiate wit interna" "imate 0roesses, su as E" /ioMariations in te Eart=s "imate o#er time areause b7 natura" interna" 0roesses, su as E" /io, as we"" as anges in e5terna" inf"uenes ese e5terna"inf"uenes an be natura" in origin, su as #o"ani ati#it7 an #ariations in so"ar out0ut, or ause b7 umanati#it7, su as greenouse gas emissions, uman-soure aeroso"s, ozone e0"etion an "an use ange ero"e of natura" interna" 0roesses an be estimate b7 stu7ing obser#e #ariations in "imate an b7 running"imate moe"s witout anging an7 of te e5terna" fators tat affet "imate e effet of e5terna" inf"uenes

an be estimate wit moe"s b7 anging tese fators, an b7 using 07sia" unerstaning of te 0roessesin#o"#e e ombine effets of natura" interna" #ariabi"it7 an natura" e5terna" fators an a"so be estimatefrom "imate information reore in tree rings, ie ores an oter t70es of natura" termometers= 0rior to teinustria" ageM e natura" e5terna" fators tat affet "imate in"ue #o"ani ati#it7 an #ariations in so"arout0ut E50"osi#e #o"ani eru0tions oasiona""7 eet "arge amounts of ust an su"0ate aeroso" ig into teatmos0ere, tem0orari"7 sie"ing te Eart an ref"eting sun"igt ba3 to s0ae So"ar out0ut as an 11-7ear7"e an ma7 a"so a#e "onger-term #ariations' :uman acti#ities o#er the last 1 ears% .articularlthe burning o& &ossil &uels% ha#e caused a ra.idI I increase in carbon dio5ide and othergreenhouse gases in the atmos.here' Be&ore the industrial age% these gases had remained atnear stable concentrations &or thousands o& ears' :uman acti#ities ha#e also caused increasedconcentrations o& &ine re&lecti#e .articles% or "toug natura" interna" "imate 0roesses, su as E" /io, an ause #ariations in g"oba"

mean tem0erature for re"ati#e"7 sort 0erios, ana"7sis iniates tat a "arge 0ortion is ue to e5terna" fators9rief 0erios of g"oba" oo"ing a#e fo""owe maor #o"ani eru0tions, su as !t ?inatubo in 1BB1 In teear"7 0art of te 26t entur7, g"oba" a#erage tem0erature rose, uring wi time greenouse gasonentrations starte to rise, so"ar out0ut was 0robab"7 inreasing an tere was "itt"e #o"ani ati#it7During te 1B$6s an 1B6s, a#erage g"oba" tem0eratures "e#e""e off, as inreases in aeroso"s from fossi" fue"san oter soures oo"e te 0"anet e eru0tion of !t >gung in 1B& a"so 0ut "arge 4uantities of ref"eti#eust into te u00er atmos0ere e ra0i warming obser#e sine te 1B@6s as ourre in a 0erio wente inrease in greenouse gases as ominate o#er a"" oter fatorsM /umerous e50eriments a#e beenonute using "imate moe"s to etermine te "i3e"7 auses of te 26t-entur7 "imate ange esee50eriments iniate tat moe"s annot re0roue te ra0i warming obser#e in reent eaes wen te7on"7 ta3e into aount #ariations in so"ar out0ut an #o"ani ati#it7 Fowe#er, as sown in +igure 1, moe"sare ab"e to simu"ate te obser#e 26t-entur7 anges in tem0erature wen te7 in"ue a"" of te most

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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreim0ortant e5terna" fators, in"uing uman inf"uenes from soures su as greenouse gases an natura"e5terna" fators e moe"-estimate res0onses to tese e5terna" fators are etetab"e in te 26t-entur7"imate g"oba""7 an in ea ini#iua" ontinent e5e0t >ntartia, were tere are insuffiient obser#ationse uman inf"uene on "imate #er7 "i3e"7 ominates o#er a"" oter auses of ange in g"oba" a#erage surfaetem0erature uring te 0ast a"f entur7M>n im0ortant soure of unertaint7 arises from te inom0"ete3now"ege of some e5terna" fators, su as uman soure aeroso"s In aition, te "imate moe"stemse"#es are im0erfet /e#erte"ess, all models simulate a .attern o& res.onse to greenhouse gas

increases &rom human acti#ities that is similar to the obser#ed .attern o& change' 4his .atternincludes more warming o#er land than o#er the oceans' 4his .attern o& change% which di&&ers&rom the .rinci.al .atterns o& tem.erature change associated with natural internal #ariabilit%such as Jl ,iZo% hel.s to distinguish the res.onse to greenhouse gases &rom that o& naturale5ternal &actors'!oe"s an obser#ations a"so bot sow warming in te "ower 0art of te atmos0ere (tetro0os0ere8 an oo"ing iger u0 in te stratos0ere is is anoter finger0rint= of ange tat re#ea"s teeffet of uman inf"uene on te "imate If, for e5am0"e, an inrease in so"ar out0ut a been res0onsib"e forte reent "imate warming, bot te tro0os0ere an te stratos0ere wou" a#e warme In aition,ifferenes in te timing of te uman an natura" e5terna" inf"uenes e"0 to istinguis te "imate res0onsesto tese fators Su onsierations inrease onfiene tat uman rater tan natura" fators were teominant ause of te g"oba" warming obser#e o#er te "ast $6 7earsM Estimates of /ortern Femis0eretem0eratures o#er te "ast one to two mi""ennia, base on natura" termometers= su as tree rings tat #ar7 in

wit or ensit7 as tem0eratures ange, an istoria" weater reors, 0ro#ie aitiona" e#ieneM M tat te26t-entur7 warming annot be e50"aine b7 on"7 natura" interna" #ariabi"it7 an natura" e5terna" foringfators Confiene in tese estimates is inrease beause 0rior to te inustria" era, mu of te #ariationte7 sow in /ortern Femis0ere a#erage tem0eratures an be e50"aine b7 e0isoi oo"ing ause b7 "arge

#o"ani eru0tions an b7 anges in te Sun=s out0ut e remaining #ariation is genera""7 onsistent wit te#ariabi"it7 simu"ate b7 "imate moe"s in te absene of natura" an uman-inue e5terna" fatorsWhilethere is uncertaint in the estimates o& .ast tem.eratures% the show that it is likel that thesecond hal& o& the 2th centur was the warmest ?-ear .eriod in the last 1Q ears' 4heestimated climate #ariabilit caused b natural &actors is small com.ared to the strong 2th-centur warming'

+2 concentrations indicate this ccle is not natural(++% (ntergo#ernmental anel on +limate +hange% 211

(Is te Current C"imate Cange Q 18,whereas most o& the warming o& the .ast ?

ears is attributable to human acti#itiesMWen om0aring te urrent "imate ange to ear"ier, natura"ones, tree istintions must be mae +irst, it must be "ear wi #ariab"e is being om0are is it greenousegas onentration or tem0erature (or some oter "imate 0arameter8, an is it teir abso"ute #a"ue or teir rateof ange* Seon, "oa" anges must not be onfuse wit g"oba" anges ;oa" "imate anges are oftenmu "arger tan g"oba" ones, sine "oa" fators (eg, anges in oeani or atmos0eri iru"ation8 an siftte e"i#er7 of eat or moisture from one 0"ae to anoter an "oa" feeba3s o0erate (eg, sea ie feeba38;arge anges in g"oba" mean tem0erature, in ontrast, re4uire some g"oba" foring (su as a ange ingreenouse gas onentration or so"ar ati#it78 ir, it is neessar7 to istinguis between time sa"esC"imate anges o#er mi""ions of 7ears an be mu "arger an a#e ifferent auses (eg, ontinenta" rift8om0are to "imate anges on a entennia" time sa"eM 4he main reason &or the current concernabout climate change is the rise in atmos.heric carbon dio5ide @+2A concentration(an some

2


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreoter greenouse gases8,which is #er unusual &or the Quaternar7 (about te last two million ears8e onentration of C:2 is now 3nown aurate"7 for te 0ast $6,666 7ears from antarti ie ores Duringtis time, C:2 onentration #arie between a "ow of 1X6 00m uring o" g"aia" times an a ig of &66 00muring warm interg"aia"s :#er te 0ast entur7, it ra0i"7 inrease we"" out of tis range, an is now &@B00m (see Ca0ter 28 +or om0arison, te a00ro5imate"7 X6-00m rise in C:2 onentration at te en of te0ast ie ages genera""7 too3 o#er $,666 7ears Figer #a"ues tan at 0resent a#e on"7 ourre man7 mi""ionsof 7ears ago (see +>Q 18M em0erature is a more iffiu"t #ariab"e to reonstrut tan C:2 (a g"oba""7 we""-

mi5e gas8, as it oes not a#e te same #a"ue a"" o#er te g"obe, so tat a sing"e reor (eg, an ie ore8 is on"7of "imite #a"ue ;oa" tem0erature f"utuations, e#en tose o#er ust a few eaes, an be se#era" egreese"sius, wi is "arger tan te g"oba" warming signa" of te 0ast entur7 of about 6@ZC M !ore meaningfu" forg"oba" anges is an ana"7sis of "arge-sa"e (g"oba" or emis0eri8 a#erages, were mu of te M M "oa" #ariationa#erages out an #ariabi"it7 is sma""er Suffiient o#erage of instrumenta" reors goes ba3 on"7 about 1$6

7ears +urter ba3 in time, om0i"ations of 0ro57 ata from tree rings, ie ores, et, go ba3 more tan atousan 7ears wit ereasing s0atia" o#erage for ear"ier 0erios (see Setion $8 Wi"e tere areifferenes among tose reonstrutions an signifiant unertainties remain, a"" 0ub"ise reonstrutionsfin tat tem0eratures were warm uring meie#a" times, oo"e to "ow #a"ues in te 1@t, 1Xt an 1Btenturies, an warme ra0i"7 after tat e meie#a" "e#e" of warmt is unertain, but ma7 a#e beenreae again in te mi-26t entur7, on"7 to a#e "i3e"7 been e5eee sine ten ese on"usions aresu00orte b7 "imate moe""ing as we"" 9efore 2,666 7ears ago, tem0erature #ariations a#e not been

s7stematia""7 om0i"e into "arge-sa"e a#erages, but te7 o not 0ro#ie e#iene for warmer-tan-0resentg"oba" annua" mean tem0eratures going ba3 troug te Fo"oene (te "ast 11,66 7ears see Setion A8ere are strong iniations tat a warmer "imate, wit great"7 reue g"oba" ie o#er an iger sea "e#e",0re#ai"e unti" aroun & mi""ion 7ears ago Fene, urrent warmt a00ears unusua" in te onte5t of te 0astmi""ennia, but not unusua" on "onger time sa"es for wi anges in tetoni ati#it7 (wi an ri#e natura",s"ow #ariations in greenouse gas onentration8 beome re"e#ant (see 9o5 18M> ifferent matter is teurrent rate of warming >re more ra0i g"oba" "imate anges reore in 0ro57 ata* e "argesttem0erature anges of te 0ast mi""ion 7ears are te g"aia" 7"es, uring wi te g"oba" mean tem0eratureange b7 AZC to @ZC between ie ages an warm interg"aia" 0erios ("oa" anges were mu "arger, fore5am0"e near te ontinenta" ie seets8 Fowe#er, te ata iniate tat te g"oba" warming at te en of anie age was a graua" 0roess ta3ing about $,666 7ears (see Setion &8 (t is thus clear that the currentrate o& global climate change is much more ra.id and #er unusual in the conte5t o& .ast

changes'e mu-isusse abru0t "imate sifts uring g"aia" times (see Setion &8 are not ounter-e5am0"es, sine te7 were 0robab"7 ue to anges in oean eat trans0ort, wi wou" be un"i3e"7 to affette g"oba" mean tem0eratureM +urter ba3 in time, be7on ie ore ata, te time reso"ution of seiment oresan oter ari#es oes not reso"#e anges as ra0i as te 0resent warming Fene, although large climatechanges ha#e occurred in the .ast% there is no e#idence that these took .lace at a &aster ratethan .resent warming'If 0roetions of a00ro5imate"7 $ZC warming in tis entur7 (te u00er en of terange8 are rea"ise, ten te Eart wi"" a#e e50eriene about te same amount of g"oba" mean warming as iti at te en of te "ast ie age there is no e#idence that this rate o& .ossible &uture global change

was matched b an com.arable global tem.erature increase o& the last ? million ears'

2@


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4K Sun "ariance

Solar acti#it can)t account &or the recent global warming trends our e#idence is based on&lawed dataBenestad% ?FD in 07sis from >tmos0eri, :eani L ?"anetar7 ?7sis at :5for ti#it7 Does /ot >"wa7s !ean at Eart 9eomes Coo"er,

Stu7 Sows,O tt0%%wwwsieneai"7om%re"eases%2616%16%161661A1$$Xtm, aesse @%1&%12,C9C8

4he Sun0s acti#it has recentl a&&ected Jarth0s atmos.here and climate in une5.ected was ,aoring to a new stu7 0ub"ise in te ourna" /ature' 4he stud% b researchers &rom (m.erial+ollege ;ondon and the /ni#ersit o& +olorado% shows that a decline in the Sun0s acti#it doesnot alwas mean that Jarth becomes cooler'M It is we"" estab"ise tat te Suns ati#it7 wa5es an

wanes o#er an 11-7ear 7"e an tat as its ati#it7 wanes, te o#era"" amount of raiation reaing Eartereases 4his latest stud looked at the Sun0s acti#it o#er the .eriod 2F-2>%wen it was in ae"ining 0art of its 11-7ear ati#it7 7"eMlthough the Sun0s acti#it declined o#er this .eriod% thenew research shows that it ma ha#e actuall caused Jarth to become warmer' +ontrar toe5.ectations% the amount o& energ reaching Jarth at #isible wa#elengths increased rather than

2X


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coredecreased as the Sun0s acti#it declined% causing this warming e&&ect'I Hollowing this sur.rising&inding% the researchers behind the stud belie#e it is .ossible that the in#erse is also true andthat in .eriods when the Sun0s acti#it increases% it tends to cool% rather than warm% Jarth' isis base on wat is a"rea7 3nown about te re"ationsi0 between te Suns ati#it7 an its tota" energ7 out0ut#erall solar acti#it has been increasing o#er the .ast centur% so the researchers belie#e it is.ossible that during this .eriod% the Sun has been contributing a small cooling e&&ect% ratherthan a small warming e&&ect as had .re#iousl been thought'

2B


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4K /rban heat island e&&ect

4he urban heat island e&&ect doesn)t a&&ect tem.erature readingsBlack, 99C en#ironment orres0onent,2F

()iar, /o# X, 99C, C"imate ange s3e0tis wrong=,Ott0%%newsbbou3%2%i%u3Nnews%A6211B@stm, aesse @%1&%12, C9C8

ma$or argument used b sce.tics o& global warming is &lawed% a / 9et &&ice stud in,ature magazine sas'I4his argument maintains that much recorded climate data is inherentlunreliable because o& where weather instruments are situated'I 9ost are in or near cities%

which .roduce their own heat6 so the ra.id warming measured o#er the last centur could be$ust a record o& urbanisation' 4he 9et &&ice belie#es its stud shows this urban heat islandidea is wrongM M M e ana"7sis as been one b7 Dr Da#i ?ar3er Fe use ata for te "ast $6 7ears to reatetwo se0arate gra0s :ne 0"ots tem0eratures obser#e on a"m nigts, te oter on win7 nigts

Warming o#er oceans dis.ro#e narrow urban heat island theorRe#kin% senior eitor of Diso#er, staff writer at te ;> imes, an senior writer at Siene Digest,2>

(>nrew, Jan 1A, /ew .or3 imes, Conneting te G"oba" Warming Dots,Ott0%%wwwn7timesom%266@%61%1A%wee3inre#iew%1Abasistm"*Nr`6, aesse @%1&%1&, C9C8

If tougt of as a 0ainting, te sientifi 0iture of a growing an 0otentia""7 a"amitous uman inf"uene onte "imate as mo#e from being abstrat a entur7 ago to im0ressionisti &6 7ears ago to 0ointi""ist toa7 M4he im.act o& a buildu. o& carbon dio5ide and other greenhouse gases is now largelundis.utedlmost e#erone in the &ield sas the conse8uences can essentiall be reduced to a&ormulaK 9ore +2 [ warmer world [ less ice [ higher seas'(row in a "ot of "imate sifts an

aiif7ing oeans for goo measure8M 9ut te 0rognosis R an te 0roof tat 0eo0"e are ri#ing mu of tewarming R sti"" "a3s te sar0ness an etai" of a moern-a7 0otogra0, wi ma3es it ar to get 0eo0"eto ange teir bea#iorM Inee, te "oser one gets to a 0artiu"ar 0i5e", be it urriane strengt, or te rate at

wi seas ou" rise, te arer it is to be 0reise So wat is te basis for te e#er-stronger sientifiagreement on te 0"anet=s warming e#en in te fae of b"urr7 etai"s* M>s in a 0ointi""ist 0ainting, te meaningemerges from te broaest #iew, from te ba"ane of e#iene,O as te sientifi ase is esribe in te0erioi re0orts issue b7 an enormous internationa" networ3 of e50erts te Intergo#ernmenta" ?ane" onC"imate Cange, wwwi0 e main finings of te 0ane"=s fourt assessment sine 1BB6 wi"" be re"ease in?aris on +eb 2M In te 0ane"=s "ast re0ort, issue in 2661, an in more reent stuies re#iewe for te omingre0ort, #arious trens 0ro#ie "ues tat uman ati#it7, rater tan natura" 0enomena, 0robab"7 ausemost of te reent warming number o& trends ha#e been identi&iedKI4he global a#erageminimum nighttime tem.erature has risen' @4his is unlikel to be caused b some #ariabilit in

the sun% &or e5am.le% and a..ears linked to the greenhouse gases that hold in heat radiating&rom the earth)s sur&ace% e#en a&ter the sun has gone down'AIe stratos0ere, ig abo#e te eart=ssurfae, as oo"e, wi is an e50ete outome of a#ing more eat tra00e b7 te gases "oser to tesurfae, in te tro0os0ere (Sientists sa7 tat #ariations in te sun=s out0ut, for e5am0"e, wou" instea ausesimi"ar trens in te two atmos0eri "a7ers instea of o00osite ones8M4here has been a .arallel warmingtrend o#er land and oceans' (In oter wors, te inrease in te amount of eat-tra00ing as0a"t annot

be te on"7 u"0rit8M L4here)s no urbanization going on on the ocean%M said a ;awrimore% chie& o&the climate monitoring branch o& the ,ational +limatic Data +enter in she#ille% /CM>noterim0ortant fining omes from om0uter simu"ations of te "imate s7stem Wi"e te se#era" ozen to0 moe"sremain roug a00ro5imations, te7 a#e beome 0rogressi#e"7 better at re0"iating "imate 0atterns, 0ast an0resentM (n the models% the onl wa to re.licate the remarkable warming% and e5traordinar

rctic warming% o& recent decades is to add greenhouse gases as .eo.le ha#e been doing% Dr'

&6


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Core;awrimore said'I LWithout the greenhouse gases%M he said% Lou $ust don)t get what we)#eobser#ed'M

4he L/rban :eat (sland J&&ectM is not rele#ant to warming trends

9uller% 0rofessor of 07sis at 9er3e"7,211

()iar, !ar &1, C"imate Cange ?o"i7 Issues,O CQ Congressiona" estimon7, ;e5is, C9C8

;et me now address the .roblem o& oor 4em.erature Station \ualit 9an tem.eraturestations in the /'S' are located near buildings% in .arking lots% or close to heat sources' nthon

Watts and his team has shown that most o& the current stationsin te


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreunless someone comes u. with belie#able .roo& that the urban heat island is im.ortant% we0llnot worr about it'

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4K "olcanoes

"olcanoes are com.arati#el irrele#ant to global warming humans emit o#er a 1 timesmore +2Gerlach% geo"ogist at te na"7sis Center of :a3 )ige /ationa" ;aborator7 an te Internationa" Energ7 >gen7iniate tat "igt-ut7 #ei"es (ars, 0i3u0 tru3s, S


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Corecarbon dio5ide .er ear C or &ar more than three times the annual baseline out.ut o& ilauea

"olcano in :awaii] Just 12 of tese ot s0rings wou" e5ee arbon io5ie emission rate estimates for teentire $,666-3i"ometer-"ong mi-oean rige s7stemM o sa"e u0 #o"ani arbon io5ie out0ut to teurrent antro0ogeni "e#e" wou" re4uire aing tousans of #o"anoes to te $6 to 6 norma""7 ati#e

#o"anoes of te subaeria" "ansa0e an more tan a unre aitiona" mi-oean rige s7stems to teseaf"oorM Global #olcanic carbon dio5ide emission estimates contain uncertainties and are

#ariable% but there is #irtuall no doubt that #olcanism adds &ar less carbon dio5ide to the

oceans and atmos.here than humans'

"olcanoes .ro#e that climate models are accurate and that warming is anthro.ogenicScience Dail% 22

(+eb 1, Siene Dai"7, ?inatubo o"ano )esear 9oosts Case +or Fuman-Cause G"oba"Warming,O wwwsieneai"7om%re"eases%2662%62%6262266@$X$6tm, aesse @%1&%1&, C9C8

Heb' 21% 22 C ,JW BR/,SW(+E(S+4W7% , Research into the worldwide climatic

im.act o& the 1==1 9ount inatubo #olcanic eru.tion during the 1 ears since the eru.tion hasstrengthened the case &or human causes o& global warming% a Rutgers scientist re.orts in a.a.er .ublished in the Hebruar 1F issue o& the international $ournal% Science'I Share 4hisK4heinatubo research also has im.ro#ed scientists0 abilit to &orecast the im.act o& &uture

#olcanoes on weather and climate% sas the .a.er0s author% lan Robock o& the uni#ersit0s+enter &or Jn#ironmental rediction in the De.artment o& Jn#ironmental Sciences% +ook+ollege'Iccording to Robock% the eru.tion on ;uzon (sland in the hili..ines on une 1?% 1==1.roduced the largest #olcanic cloud o& the 2th centur and caused changes in worldwideclimate and weather that were &elt &or ears'I 4he changes wrought b inatubo0s sul&uric acidcloud% which blocked a large .ercentage o& sunlight &rom reaching the earth% initiall includedcooler summers and warmer winters% an o#erall net cooling at the earth0s sur&ace and altered

winds and weather .atterns% Robock said'I (n certain areas such as the 9iddle Jast% it .roduced

a rare snowstorm in erusalem and led to the death o& coral at the bottom o& the Red Sea% henoted'I 4he cloud also caused de.letion o& the ozone laer o#er 4em.erate ^one regions o& the,orthern :emis.here where much o& the world0s .o.ulation resides% in addition to the regularozone hole which a..ears in ctober o#er ntarctica% the researcher said'I 9ost signi&icant%the scientist said% inatubo hel.ed #alidate com.uter-generated climate models thatdemonstrate human-caused global warming'I /sing com.uter modeling% said Robock% scientistsha#e been able to account &or natural warming and cooling% as &ound in rctic and ntarctic icecore sam.les and tree rings co#ering hundreds o& ears u. to the last centur'I (& ou .lug in

#olcanic eru.tions% Jl ,iZos% solar #ariations and other natural causes and tr to simulate .astclimate changes% ou can do a .rett good $ob o& modeling climate change until the end o& the1=th +entur% the researcher said'I&ter that .eriod% he said% natural causes alone don0taccount &or the amount o& warming% about 'T degrees +elsius @1'1 degrees HahrenheitA% thathas taken .lace in the last centur'I But when ou &actor in inatubo and other eru.tions along

with anthro.ogenic @human-causedA emissions% said the scientist% it accounts &or theobser#ed record o& climate change &or the .ast centur% including the o#erall warming ande.isodic cooling% and #alidates the climate models'

&A


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(m.acts

&$


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Global (nstabilit

+limate change will cause global instabilit4he Guardian 2> UC"imate Wars reaten 9i""ions, Common Dreams,11%$%6@,tt0%%wwwommonreamsorg%ari#e%266@%11%6$%$61%T itor, @-12-1&, K9

> tota" of FT nations and 2'> billion .eo.le are now at high risk o& being o#erwhelmed b armed

con&lict and war because o& climate change > furter ?T countries &ace .olitical destabilization,affeting anoter 12 bi""ion ini#iua"s is star3 warning wi"" be out"ine b7 te 0eae grou0 Internationa"

>"ert in a re0ort, > C"imate of Conf"it, tis wee3 !u of&rica% sia and South merica will su&&eroutbreaks o& war and social disru.tion as climate change erodes land% raises seas% meltsglaciers and increases storms%it on"ues E#en Juro.e is at risk 0+limate change will com.oundthe .ro.ensit &or #iolent con&lict%wi in turn wi"" "ea#e ommunities 0oorer an "ess ab"e to o0e witte onse4uenes of "imate ange, te re0ort states 4he worst threats in#ol#e nations lackingresources and stabilit to deal with global warming, ae te agen7s seretar7-genera", Dan SmitFo""an wi"" be affete b7 rising sea "e#e"s, but no one e50ets war or strife, e to" e :bser#er It as teresoures an 0o"itia" struture to at effeti#e"7 9ut other countries that su&&er loss o& land and waterand be bu&&eted b increasingl &ierce storms will ha#e no e&&ecti#e go#ernment to ensurecorrecti#e measures are taken eo.le will &orm de&ensi#e grou.s and battles will break out'

Consier ?eru, sai Smit Its fres water omes most"7 from g"aier me"t water 9ut b7 261$ near"7 a"" ?erusg"aiers wi"" a#e been remo#e b7 g"oba" warming an its 2@ mi""ion 0eo0"e wi"" near"7 a"" "a3 fres water If?eru too3 ation now, it ou" offset te im0ening risis, e ae 9ut te ountr7 as "itt"e e50eriene ofeffeti#e emora7, suffers oasiona" outbrea3s of insurgen7, an as borer is0utes wit Ci"e anEuaor e resu"t is "i3e"7 to be aos, onf"it an mass migration > ifferent situation affets 9ang"aesFere climate-linked migration is alread triggering #iolent con&lict, sa7s Internationa" >"ertDroughts in summer combined with worsening &looding in coastal zones% triggered bincreasingl se#ere cclones% are destroing &armland'9illions ha#e alread migrated to (ndia%causing increasingl serious con&licts that are destined to worsen' (n &rica% ri#ers such as the,iger and 9onu are ke &reshwater resources .assing through man nations' s droughts

worsen and more water is e5tracted &rom them con&licts will be ine#itable'(n Juro.e% mostcountries are currentl considered stable enough to co.e with global warming% a.art &rom the

Balkans6 wars ha#e le&t countries such as Serbia and 9ontenegro .oliticall weakenedstem.eratures rise and &armland is reduced% .o.ulation .ressures will trigger #iolence thatauthorities will be unable to contain Some nations on te ris3 ma0, su as Russia% ma causesur.rise' 09oscow0s control o& Russia as a whole will not be undermined b global warming,sai Smit 0But loss o& &armland in some regions will lead to local rebellions like those alreadtriggered in +hechna +on&lict triggered b climate change is not a #ague threat &or coming

ears, e ae 0(t is alread u.on us'0

&
http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/11/05/5016/http://www.commondreams.org/archive/2007/11/05/5016/


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Warming Bad Generic

Warming causes e5tinction - a .re.onderance o& e#idence .ro#es it0s real% anthro.ogenic% andoutweighs other threatsDeibel >@4err% Horeign &&airs StrategK ;ogic o& merican Statecra&t% +onclusionK mericanHoreign &&airs Strateg 4odaA

+ina""7, there is one ma$or e5istential threatto >merian seurit7 (as we"" as 0ros0erit78 of a non#io"entnature, wi, toug far in te future, emans urgent ation (t is the threat o& global warming to thestabilit o& the climate u.on which all earthl li&e de.ends' Scientists worldwide ha#e beenobser#ing the gathering o& this threat &or three decades now% and what was once a mere.ossibilit has .assed through .robabilit to near certaint' (ndeed not one o& more than =articles on climate change .ublished in re&ereed scienti&ic $ournals &rom 1==Q to 2Q doubtedthat anthro.ogenic warming is occurring In "egitimate sientifi ir"es,O writes E"izabet Ko"bert, itis #irtuall im.ossible to &ind e#idence o& disagreement o#er the &undamentals o& global

warming'M J#idence &rom a #ast international scienti&ic monitoring e&&ort accumulates almostweekl% as this sam.le o& news.a.er re.orts showsK an international .anel .redicts Lbrutaldroughts% &loods and #iolent storms across the .lanet o#er te ne5t entur7O "imate ange ou""itera""7 a"ter oean urrents, wi0e awa7 uge 0ortions of >"0ine Snowa0s an ai te s0rea of o"era an

ma"ariaO g"aiers in te >ntarti an in Green"an are me"ting mu faster tan e50ete, anUwor"wie,0"ants are b"ooming se#era" a7s ear"ier tan a eae agoO rising sea tem0eratures a#e been aom0anie

b7 a signifiant g"oba" inrease in te most estruti#e urrianesO />S> sientists a#e on"ue fromiret tem0erature measurements tat 266$ was te ottest 7ear on reor, wit 1BBX a "ose seonO Eart=s

warming "imate is estimate to ontribute to more tan 1$6,666 eats an $ mi""ion i""nesses ea 7earO asisease s0reas wies0rea b"eaing from e5as to riniaU3i""e broa swats of ora"sO ue to a 2-egree rise in sea tem0eratures e wor" is s"ow"7 isintegrating,O on"ue Inuit unter /oa !etu4, wo"i#es &6 mi"es from te >rti Cir"e e7 a"" it "imate angeUbut we ust a"" it brea3ing u0O +rom tefouning of te first ities some ,666 7ears ago unti" te beginning of te inustria" re#o"ution, arbon io5ie"e#e"s in te atmos0ere remaine re"ati#e"7 onstant at about 2X6 0arts 0er mi""ion (00m8 >t 0resent te7 areae"erating towar A66 00m, an b7 26$6 te7 wi"" rea $66 00m, about oub"e 0re-inustria" "e#e"sntarti ie seetsou" isintegrate, leading to a sea le#el o& rise o& 2 &eet that would co#er ,orth +arolina)s outer

banks% swam. the southern third o& Hlorida, an inunate !anattan u0 to te mi"e of Greenwii""agenother catastro.hic e&&ect would be the colla.se o& the tlantic thermohalinecirculation tat 3ee0s te winter weater in Euro0e far warmer tan its "atitue wou" oterwise a""owEonomist Wi""iam C"ine one estimate te amage to te


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Gonzaga Debate InstituteWarming Coreterrorism and traditional militar challenges to shame' (t is a threat not onl to the securit and.ros.erit to the /nited States% but .otentiall to the continued e5istence o& li&e on this .lanet'

Warming causes biodi#ersit loss% storms% and agricultureWeart 11 R (S0ener Weart, Diretor of te Center for Fistor7 of ?7sis of te >merian Institute of ?7sis,Deember 2611, e Diso#er7 of G"oba" Warming8

large bod o& scienti&ic studies, e5austi#e"7 re#iewe% has .roduced a long list o& .ossibilities

/obo7 an sa7 tat an7 of te items on te "ist are ertain to a00en 9ut te wor"s "imate e50erts a"mosta"" agree tat te im0ats "iste be"ow are more "i3e"7 tan not to a00en +or some items, te 0robabi"itiesrange u0 to a"most ertain 4he &ollowing are the likel conse8uences o& warming b a &ew degrees+elsiusR tat is, watwe ma e5.ect i& humanit manages to begin restraining its emissionssoon, so tat greenouse gases o not rise be7on twie te 0re-inustria" "e#e" Witout strong ation teoub"ing wi"" ome we"" before te en of tis entur7, bringing te 0"anet to tem0eratures not seen sine tes0rea of agriu"ture 97 266@, man7 of te 0reite anges were obser#e to be atua""7 a00ening +oretai"s see re0orts referene in tis footnote (228 9ost .laces will continue to get warmer%es.eciall at night and in winter' 4he tem.erature change will bene&it some regions whileharming othersR for e5am0"e, 0atterns of tourism wi"" sift e warmer winters wi"" im0ro#e ea"t anagriu"ture in some areas, but g"oba""7, mortalit will rise and &ood su..lies will be endangered dueto more &re8uent and e5treme summer heat wa#es and other e&&ects' Regions not directl

harmed will su&&er indirectl &rom higher &ood .rices and a .ress o& re&ugees &rom a&&lictedregions' * Sea le#els will continue to rise &or man centuries' 4he last time the .lanet was Q+

warmer than now% the sea le#el was at least T meters @2 &eetA higher'@2QA 4hat submergedcoastlines where man millions o& .eo.le now li#e% including cities &rom ,ew 7ork to Shanghaie rise wi"" 0robab"7 be so graua" tat "ater generations an sim0"7 abanon teir 0arents omes, but aruinous"7 swift rise annot be entire"7 ru"e out !eanwi"e storm surges wi"" ause emergenies c`Sea rise Lie Weater 0atterns wi"" 3ee0 anging towar an intensifie water 7"e wit stronger f"oos an rougts!ost regions now subet to rougts wi"" 0robab"7 get rier (beause of warmt as we"" as "ess 0rei0itation8,an most wet regions wi"" get wetter E5treme weater e#ents wi"" beome more fre4uent an worse In0artiu"ar, storms wit more intense rainfa"" are "iab"e to bring worse f"oos Some 0"aes wi"" get moresnowstorms, but most mountain g"aiers an winter snow0a3 wi"" srin3, eo0arizing im0ortant watersu00"7 s7stems Ea of tese tings as a"rea7 begun to a00en in some regions(2A8 Drougt in te 266s

Jcosstems will be stressed% although some managed agricultural and &orestr sstems willbene&it% a

more warming ev (both sides)

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