Portia Isaacson Wright, Ph.D.

October 3, 1988Volume 1, Number 3

The newsletter for users of publishedmarket information in the computer,telecommunications, electronics andoffice products industries.

Future Thinleer is dedicated toexecutives who plan the future usingthe best information they can buy.

A FEW WORDS Almost

EDITORIAL Numbers is Numbers? - Part IWhy are one market researcher's numbers so dilferent from another's?

REVIEWS J

11

18

22

25

29

Software Management Strategies Sentice - Gartner Grorrp

Home Automation 88: A Market Ountieut - Parks Associates

MID-TERM 1988 - Integrated Circuit Engineering Corporation

Managing the Merger of PCs and Engineering-lUorlestalians -

Summi'i Stiategies g The S. Klein Library-series on Computer Graphics

The Telecom Strategt Letter -Northern Business Information/Datapro

EDI Yellout Pages - EDI, Spread the word!

PROFILE 3 l VLSI Research, Inc.

MORE GOOD NEWS 36 Eighty-eight Market Information Publishing Companies Have Agreedto Participate in Future Tnin&er Reviews

40NEW

TRACKING 42 People and Companies - McGraw-Hill in Motion

NEXT ISSUE FIND/SVP Profile . . . Image Communbation Systems Marlet RequirementsSeniee - CAp International . . . The Yanlue Sentice - The Yankee Gro,p. . . Supercomputer Equipmmt and Seroiees Usage -. . Newton-EvansReseaich Company .- . . Sytt"

" Applbatbn Architecture- Input . . . Annual

Case Suroqt - Case Research . ' . 1988 Softuare Marlut Sungt - SentryMarket Research . . . and moFe .

O 1988 by Future Think, Inc. P.O. Box 49248, Colorado Springs, CO 80919' 719/598'9000

@ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

A FEW WORDS Almost

We like the way it turned out.Please let us knou if there is someuay we can be more useful to you

We think it's a gnn

Judi Ral has done a tmific jobof pulling it togethcr

And then we'll go to work on thenext edition to which ue will addnon-U.5. companies and U.S.companies found too late for theFirst Edition. And, of course, wehaae lots of work to do onResources, our directory oJ marketinformation products - 2000entries - aoailable Decunbn

This Issue Is Almost as Planned

So far we have a perfect record - no issue has turned out exactlyas we had planned. Future Thinker #3's deviations are -

rz Instead of reviewing the report, fBM's TelecommunicatioruStrategt (from which I learned a great deal) in this issue, wedecided that a later review of Architecture Technology'snewsletter, LocalNetter, a favorite of mine for years, would bemore repnesentative of their work and, of course, easier for me.

r We changed the Summit Strategies report from the plannedOS/2 Presentation Manager: Comptititte Strategics in the NewGraphical World to Managittg the Merger of PCs andEngineering Worlestatioru because it is more representative ofSummit's future directions in subject matter.

z We decided to review The Yanlcee Seroice in an upcoming issuerather than the report The Future oJ Trarcaction Procasingsince Yankee does not sell its rtports seParate from its services.

/ We're trying new column types in each issue. In this issue wehave Tracking with brief news items on people and conlpaniesin the market information publishing business.

Future Think Companies Is Complete - Well Almost

It's a sqlrare, perfect-bound book - 7 in. x 7 in. - nice cover.Markef information publishing companies (150 of them) aredescribed one per page. On each company's page is its name,parent company, address, phone, number of employees, who itsinformation is for, subjects tracked, types of informationproducts and an example leading product with title, descriptionand price.

This directory starts with an introduction giving a fewvital statistics about the companies inside and ends with thatmost useful feature - the subject index.

Our scheduleWe'lI be mailing proofs to market information publishingcompanies by tlie time you read this, and expect to have the frnalcopy to the printer by the end of October. You'll get yoursa few weeks later.

Itts free to subscribersThe First Edition of Future Think Companies is included withFuture Thinker subscriptions which are $395/year. To non-subscribers Future Think Companics is $195.

O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

EDITORIAL

Our trade and business press isoutstanding, but prfect it's not.Yu, I meanlou - Wall Street

Journal, Business Week,Computerztnrld, ComputerReseller Neus, ElectronicBusiness artd eotrlt othnpublication I'ue studied. . . . Andhne I'ae named the best. Show mea publication that consistently treatsmarket researchns any bettn, and,I'll eat my words, be theirfanforeor and gioe thnn the numbn oneslot in the award program f'mconceiaing which will rank thetrustworthiness of publicatioru intheir re-publication of marketinJormation. In addition to someoryt positioe contributions, in myopinion the press makes two majornegatiae contributions to marketinformation publishing -First, a trade or businesspublication almost neoer giaes thecomplete definition of a market withthose beautiful charts showingmarket researchns' numbns. If youdon't know exnctly how theresearchn segmented the poduct area- e.g. is it software or justmainframe software? Or thecustomer-base - e.g. what exactlyis included in large corporations?Or eoen geographically - e.g. is itU.S. only or worldwide? Hou canthe numbns mean anything except bea pretty picture to take up spacebelueen ads?Second, more often than not, neithnthe location nor the phone numbar ofthe research company is gioen, soyou can'l eoenfind thmt to ask aquestion or bult the research.Sometimes I uondn why rasearchrswaste their time with the press.OK, I know. Thefew times thepress treats 'nn right, the businessrolk in

Numbers Is Numbers? -- Port'l

This is Part 1 of a27-pan (or some large finite number) series onthe subject of Numbers - specifically why one marketresearcher's numbers ane so dilferent from another's.Or perhaps, more imponandy, whY they are ever the same.

Numbers - Why and What We Need

Numbers. You need numbers because they are measures of

bookings, ad pages, sell-through, inventory, _comtant If .S-dotlars, five-ylai history, last year, last month, five-yearforecast. . . . And these are just the beginning.

How Did You Define That Market?

The most basic number is market size. Or at least you would

The Numbers Go Round and Round

When two researchers' numbers do agree, don't get too excited

4 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

A ll res earc hns' numbersare not alike

You may need information that is more qualitative andstrategic than quantitative. But if you really crave sound marketnrrmbers, you should trace them back to the best pimary dataand greatest expertise in a particular area.

The Numbers Co Round ond RoundWeoving q Sficky Web or Errorc Abound

Sometimes market size estimates or other measures areindependently arrived at through primary research, such as end-user surveys, by a single organization. Flowever, nationallyprojectable end-user surveys are very cosdy, and sometimes notjustified by subscriber purchases of the information in a givenmarket. In this case, market sizes and other measures may bebased on non-projectable survey data, distribution channelinformation, supplier information, or even be educated guessesbased on secondary sources (the press or other researchers).These may be the best you cnn get in a given market. And evenguesses may be better than survey data mn amuck. Know whatyou're buying.

Next Numbers Is Numbers?

Next in this -Alzmbers Series we will explore some of the pitfalls ingathering the primary data used in oui industry.

You fill it in. The problem is basically the same for any segment of ourhigh-tech world, be it mainframe software , semiconductors, personalcomputers, copiers or telecommunications services.Answer left as an exercise for the student. Hint - ask what each includesand what each excludes. I'll bet you that one or more will define themarket in a way that is not easily reconcilable with other definitions; e.g.are computers with an average selling price under $10,000 the same set asthose whose CPU is a microprocessor? Does the distribution channels inwhich they are sold matter? The customer set? The applications? Is acomputer priced at under $10,000 with a microprocessor CPU sold as apart of a factory automation system counted? At times I've thoughtvarious market information publishers (not especially the ones rrsed as theexamples here) define markets differently just so their nrrmbe rs can't becompared with anyone else's. Surely not.

You must decide what type ofinformation olfas 2ou the best oalue.Be sure lou urzdrstand uthat eachsource of information really ;s. Ifthe market information publishingcompany is oague, kup asking.As you get smartn they willcrmmunicate their methodologt moreopenly and precisefii

Numbns aren' t eocrltthing.Impeccable numbns that answn theurong question are worse thanuseless - lhey can distract you,amuse lou and pacify ltou' til 1ouhaoe no entrg)) or lime to allow thatbrilliant flash of strategic insightthal makes all the numbers passi

Dream W - the best of bothsurne! data and analysis, supnoisedand presented b1t an analyst whoundnstands your business and hasan impeccable track recordforguessing thnn right year dteryar

l .

2.

Dala Revamper, lnc.bas€a estimatea on

aupplier intervlewE and !econdaryaourcea -- Yague, but the

anelyri! l! terrltlc

Data Gatherer, lnc.end-ua€r

aurvey deta

grc.t .n.lyolc?brllll.nt

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@ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

REVIEW

The usns of which Mike speaks areamong the largest computerinstallations on the planet -Fidelity Systnns, Mobil, Etaon,Hartford Innfiance, Aetna and,Dupont - nearly 400 of than.Plus 70-B0 software oendors uhosefuture is influenced almost bEondreasun by this zne source of opinionand information

It's a big, big responsibility -Mike's team has eaen withheld anopinionfor a time uhile a eompanyis being sold until they can be doublysure of their information

First, Gartnn Group detnmines thequestions large software ustrs shouldbe asking, assrsrs those who don'talready know the questions, thenansutrs thnn decisioely Jor e06r!0ne

h's not shipment data (althoughthne are some), notforecasts(although thne are some) and not theusual oendor-oriented competitioeanallses (although there are some)

The queslions are posed andanswtred $t those famous GartncrGroup, one-page (front and, back)Research Notes. Some aredissected b htfA StrategicAnalysis Reports

I canjust see those software oendors(including IBM) wince at times

Soflwore Monogemen] Strotegies Service "Gqrlner Group

'We haoe changed the way the world think of software. And wemay haoe changed the way IBM does their software planning andpresentations. . . . Thne are 200 usrs out thtre who frequentlydo not make a decision without consulting us, and' anothet 100who look at ;t and don't like it, but haoe to take it into account.'

- Mike Braude, Vice huident and Director,Softutare Management S trategie's SenticeGartntr GrouP

Decidedly for (Isers

future?' Examples -

t rr'Vhatis IBM's strategy for DB2l'?

t Why is DB2 in my future?

z Will IBM deliver system-managed storage?

r Why users should be concerned about SAA2'

r What strategies should users adopt to remove operations'oriented constraints?

I What productivity strategies are powerfrrl now and appropriatefor the 1990s?

I What can independent software vendors do to survive through1995? Can they?

z Is distribrtted database smoke or real?

z When should users move their IMS3' applications over to DB2?

spreadsheet evaluation. "

O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Mike says nDo not eoaluatesoftware oia spreadsheets. Don'tmake piecntteal software decisions.Decide on an oorall arch;tecturethen bu1 software components to fillin the pieces. For example, youdon't need a database.strateg!, !0uneed an SQL strateg*'. We trlt toget them thinking in ttnns ofarc hitectures, intnfaces and long-term inaestment as opposed toplugging specific holes with spectficproducts. IBM has changed theuay they present software to peopleand we take some neditfor that.They now gioe people a moreexplicit statmtent of what's going tohappen oan the long-tnm stressingthe intnfaces. We had some ffictonflushing this SAA thing out.And some people in Gartnr Groupgioe us ctedit for the DB2 successbut we tend to think il had more todo with the 10,00018M salesmenout thne. " Mike chuckled, thencontinued. 'Some people hne thinkwe did accelnate it. We work withthe software decision makns at theFortune 200 and that's half ofIBM's reoenu,e. "

The S oftutare ManagementStrategia Sentice team includes- (left to right) Mike Braude,Chris Bird, Petn Leuine, JeffSchulman and Tony Pncy (not inphoto). A typical dayJor a teammnnbr includes 3 hours on thephone with usns and oendors, anhour in discussions, 1/2 hour in aoendor meeting in addition tofrequent meetings with the Gartnnsales staff and companymanagnnent. Somehow they stillfind time to writefor the SofiutareManagernent Strategies Seruice

What keeps Mike Braude at GartnnGroup? He looes the work, theenoironment and that nifty set ofgolden handculfs

Spreadsheets wer€ used for a feature-wise analysis of thesoftware. Now users choose software based on what it's going tomean to be in bed with a software vendor for five to ten vears.Softutare Management Strategie.s Seruiceprovides its opinion ofeach software product's 5-10 year evolution. It critiques thevendor's claims and plans against the competitive environmentand the vendor's nesources and unstated motivations. There isalways a bottom-line recommendation to the user.

The feedback loop between Mike's group and those big-league computer users is tight. Mike talks to 20-25 of them perday. They influence his thinking and he theirs. There's nodoubt that things happen faster than they did before SoftutareManagetnent Strategias Sentice and Mike Braude's crew.

The Gurus of Software Management

Mike's from userland. He was VP of Technical Services atMorgan Stanley and Assistant VP at Metropolitan Life.Peter Levine, his partner in the service from the beginning, wasVP of Data Processing for Scudder, Stevens & Clark and prior tothat at IBM for 17 years. Mike and Peter understood the user'ssoftware decision-m"kiog process. Sofiutare ManagementStrategics Sentice was built solidly on.their goal of providing theadvice necessary to lessen user FL/D"' in the big-buck, high-impact world of software decision-making.

Mike Broude, Pefer Levine ond Crew of Work

Mike Braude is also Director of Research at Gartner -leading by example, rather than by direction. He selects fouranalysts to give presentations at the Friday lunch researchmeeting attended by 80 Gartner-folk from Research, Sales andManagement. The goal - to hone the analysts' ability toanalyze and communicate, to inform and to trigger debates onindustry events among all those at the meeting.

@ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

"Adoisorlt" is a key differentiator.The content of the snoice is focasedon odoisinp the client. not iustprooiding oaluable desniptioeinJormation about a businessenoironment. . . partof Gartnn'sWall Street roots pnhaps

A prospcctiac subscibcr can obtnin anindtxfrom thcir Gartncr Group sales rcp -acry hclpful in rcaQ undrrstanding tluscopc of thc scraicc prior lo purchasing

See Future Thinleer past(Septmbn 1)for obsnoations onGartnn Group's research process

You're just going to haoe to see aGartnr Research Note toundnstand how much is packed intoil. Usually your Gartnr sales repwill prooide aJew samplesfrom thesaoice of intnest

Belieae it or not, eoen I can read thefigures (rtmnnbn me - thickglasses or glasses oon contacts)

Thankyu! Thankyou!

There's Magic in the Medium

What our industry calls a service dilfers from one serviceprovider to the next. Gartner's implementation is even moredilferentiated than it may appear at first glance. GartnerServices are called Resurch, Adaisory an'd Strategic PlanningSentices - RAS Sentices in Gartner-speak. Each $16,500subscription is for a period of one year and provides for twoclient Interfaces. Each Interface receives:

r The starter material in two 3-inch binders which includes -

. about 40 Rqearch Notes (3 back months),o 2-3 Strategb Pbnn&ry Reportr (about 80 pages each),

most r€cently - DB2: TLe Catdbstfor tlv 'IBM SoftuareCo. ", August 18, 19B8; Systems ApplieationArchitecture:A Critical Arulysir, October 26, l9B7; and fBM'sSoftuarc Strutegies - Parc f , February 13, 1987'

o the SoJtunre Managenwtt Strategics Scenario (25 pages)which provides: the scope ofthe service, the key issues,strategic planning assumptions and a summary of majorsoftware directions during the period 1987-t992,

o other rcsearch documents such as the recent StorageManagenent Kr:t (a collection of Research Notes on StorageManagement, including Strategic Planning Assumptions),

o an index (both chronological and by subject) of StrategicAnalyis Reprts and Rqearch Notes back to 1985,

o the Confercnce Calendar, ando instnrctions on using the service.

rz Regrrlar Research Notes (4'7 every two weeks) .t Sfiate4ie Analysis Repotts (typically 4-6 per year).z Updates to the Strategic Plannhg Scmario.rz Telephone Consultation - unlimited telephone inquiry

privileges for a client Interface.z A tickei to attend the annual Sofiunre Marryencnt Strategics

Sentice or other Gartner conference./ lndex updates.

Tlne Research Note is the basic unit of informationEach Note is a one-sheet (both sides packed) summary of aresearch result. On the front top of the sheet is the filinginformation, date, title and summary. Sometimes the title andsummary is all one needs - a great time saver for the busymanager. AJuly note tided User Exposures When Choosing Notto Insiall DB2 was summarized 'Exposures due to DB2resistance center around careerjeopardy and avoidance oftheSQL strategy issue.' Another titled dBase IV Must Fly_wassummarized 'The dBase IV-based renewal of Ashton-Tate'stechnical virility, if seasoned with someglasnost, could fuel animpressive corporate launch into the 1990s.'-

The body of each Resmrch Note is a two-column formatmuch like Future Thinlecr. The wider right column is usuallytext. The narrow left column is charts, graphs, drawings, tablesand a most wonderful glossary of mnemonics used. As many as6 figures occupy the left column of the two Pages.-

Each Research Note concludes with the signatur€ of theperson who wrote it.

O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Softuare ManagementStrategics Sentice nntes terd t0 bemostly Key Issues uith all the othnQpes of notes sprinkled in

My mouth watnedfor a PC-basedotrsion. Look up a subject, pick aResearch Note title, then to theSummary and, if needed, to thenotebooks for the Research Note.Not a otry big database eoenforseorallears back. Vry useful.Wondn if there's a market?

It would be intaesting to hear whatGartner Group think might belikely altnnatioes for each of thesefutures since it oiews none of thnnas ctrtain (P = 1.0).Rnnnnber, Haman Kahn told usthat "The most unlikelyfuture is thesurprise-freefuture." . . Whatwill those surprises be?Let's check this list in 1992 . . .

This seraice nnbodies the powerfulcombination of strategic businesssmarts atop profound technicaldepth. These ain't no amateursyou're dealing with - or recentMBAs either (no olfense meant).Mike's education - back uhen -was in mathematics. Peter's was inmechanical enginering. It'soboious that both haoe adoanceddegrus trom the School of HardKnocks, nnphasis - big computffsoftware, thesis - its managrmentand strategic impact on bigorganizations

Research Notes of several flavorsGartner Group Resurch Notes come in several flavors: StrategicPlanning Assumptions, Key Issues, Events, Product Forecasts,Technology Trends, Intelligence, Companies and Markets. It'sa very usable framework for both the researcher and user.

Research Notes make for a dream inderThe Gartner Group indices are very thorough, largely becausethe one-page Resenrch Notes are perfect for indexing to the exactlocation of the needed information. The bad news - the indicesdo run as much as six months behind; however, each packet ofResearch Notes does come with a cover Table of Contents so it iseasy to scan the past six months.

And More Magic in the Message

The message n Softunre Management Strategizs Sentice is aimeddead center at what the user needs to know to make decisionsabout software. I like the predictions with a Gartner-assignedprobability (P: probability) following each.

" Major Software Directions : I 98 7- 1 992

1. IBM will not dominate the tools arena (P : .8)2. The 'Big Fioe'6', which could become i'Big'

Seoen"', will be the broad conduits of high-powered technologlt (P = .3)

3. Exotic technologies will only be helpful throughnnbedding in Software Enginening artd SystcmsManaganent discipline (P :.8)

4. SAA may become ony dirty, but still elfectioe(P =.8)

5. Commacial shops will ditfnentiate themseloes b1teffectioe software enginening (P = .7)By 1990, oon 707o of apllications logic beingurritten will gennate SQL'' statnnents (P =.9)

7. Strategic applications willfetch data actossenoironments and often be rewritten in seanalpieces (P =.8)

8. Distributed relational technologt will dominateoLTPe. e: .9)

9. IBM wili unfold the Repositorlto' as a baseforSystnns Managtntent, but will not unoeil acomplete solution to eithn Systmts Managmtent orSoftware Deaelopment (P =.9)

1 0. Reoolutionary alttrnatiaes for softwaredeoelopment and applications must surface throughthe 'Big Fioe/Seoen' (P =.6)

11. Software arena will tend toward a two-ticredstructure (P =.9)'

- Softutare Management StrategicsScenarb Summary

6.

@ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

In one month, August 1985,Softutare ManagementStrategizs Sentice did fi825,000in NCVItt' - a record in GartnnGroup. They had sent the matnialfor afree look to Gartnn's IBMLarge Computer Market Seruicesubsnibers. The sales forcefollowed up

That's nearly 500 subsnibns xfi16,500, then incteasingfor add-on modules and decreasingfordiscounls to multiple snoicesubsnibtrs. But wouldyou belieoethis is not Gartnr Group's largestsnoice?

Two-thirds oJ the large softwareusns make whateon decision thatIBM tells than. Smalln shopsdon' t think s trategically

Mike thinks the SoftunreManagement S trategizs Serzticeand neu soJtuare snoices can groufrom today's $8 mtllion to fi20million - fi30 million in 5-6 years.Listening, I was totalj conoinced.But Mike pointed out the delicatebalancing act that all snoicesuppliers must naoigate - too muchspecialization of an area likesoftware can alienate those usnsuho were haffu with the depth andprice of a single software sraice.But, the needfor softwareinformation is so great that it uillrequire more depth andspecialization

An Amazing Story

Started in 1985, this $16,500 annual subscription service now

greatly expanded as the business of the enterprise inevitablychangbs. This application software is rooted in a churningswariplz' of systems software purchased from IBM and othersoftwire vendors. The trick - to build a galactic fleet of lashed-together houseboats - a fleet that will carr1r a big burly userslowly but safely atop the swzrmP into the future. Gartnerprovides the blueprints and points the way to safe passage.

September 1, 19BB).

Tomorrow

frnancial applications software .

Mike Broude't Vision for Gorlner Group's Soflwore Services

820 MTLLTON - 330 MILLION

11 @ tggg by Future Think, Inc.

REVIEW

It would win mydesignn award for notebooks

DecidedQ undastatedin bothform and title

It will be so tmtpting, but rmtmtber- jou must haoe permission fromthe author to make ooerheads orslides

We'll talk more about theforecast methodologlt latcr. InTricia's words, 'We tried to take asane approach to the world at large.I tr;ed to meet the test - could anyreasonable human being look at tiisand say ' that could be truet?"Hmmm. Would that moreforecastswne conslructed this way

Home Aulomolion 88:A llllorket Overviow --Pqrks Associoles

Before you read this article I want to make one thing very, veryclear. I have not one single objective bone in my body when itcomes to Tricia Parks or the subject of home automationl'.

Read the footnote, please. . . . Thanks.

Now I feel better, let's proceed.

The Form

The binderAs soon as you pick it up, you know it's something special. Thenotebook has a cushy, black cover with bhre-grey letteringidentifying the company - Parks Associates.

Inside the binder - cover page and textThe l-inch notebook is packed with 346 pages of the future. Thecover sheet of heavy blue-grey identifies the report title -Home Automation 88: A Market Ownticut. The text is laser-printel' produced with a just-right density factor.

Inside the binder - pictures, pictures, pictures!The pictures, charts and tables in this report are as important asthe text. There are 129 of them in 346 pages - that's over one-third. The figures are all sideways - a full landscape page witha pleasing to the eye, consistent line border. Produced on anApple Mac with laser printer in large type, they are veryreadable. They are in perfect slide aspect ratio and would makequite professional overhead transparencies. If you turn thenotebook sideways and open the front to the top, the figures areall readable as you flip the pages up. So the entire book of

fi$,..es can be read without turning.the notebook - a veryinteresting exercise since the most signific:Lnt summaryinformation in the report was captuned in pictures.

Inside the binder - the forecast model disketteThe accompanying IBM PC diskette contains the Lotus 1-2-3forecast model. The nearly 750-line printout in an appendixshows the results of the forecast calculations. The model hasembedded in it the formula and relationships between variousbeginning data used to arrive at the forecasts.

12 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

A 75}-line meticulously preparedforecast model is worth morethan afeu bucks

Someday, when market informationusns become more knowledgeableand haoe more sources of qualitymarket information, they will notbuy aforecast that gioes onfi the endresults without the methodolog inits electronic nnbodiment

Put your eyeballs back in. If yourfirm is eaen ranote[t considringinaolonnent in home automation, itis worth eaery penny. If you'reconoinced it's notforyou, you'dbetter be sure. ffs a big, big marketand it's probabQ not what youthink. Thsre are also some reallygood deJensioe reasons Jor being in.Read on

I'ae studied Tricia studyingconsumns for lears. Hn insightsare fascinating. Frequently, I'oesaid "Now, why didn't I think ofthat.' It's so oboious aftn sheexplains it

There is something very comforting about having aforecast diskette even if you don't use it. It tells you that theauthor is willing to share with you all the details and assumptionsused in calculating the forecast - that the authorl?ys tnecomplete methodology open for your inspection. If you will useit, you can adjust any assumptions you wish to explore the effecton ihe forecast. Or even add to the forecast a few lines to showthe projected business activity of your company (e.g. marketshare within a given forecasted category year by year). Then asyou frddle withlhe assumptions, the forecast f9r yorr_l Projectedbusiness will change. You will be anazed at the additionalintuitive understanding you will gain of a market if you'll spendsome time with this type of model. And for us business futurists,it is fun. Essential.

The Price

The price of this report is $3,500. Second copies are $500. Thisis noi the most expensive repoft I've ever seen, but close.I needn't tell youlhat all things called rePorts are not createdequal. This one is more unequal than most any I've seen - Itcould have been called a multiclient study and the price couldhave been higher and not out of line. That will become clear aswe explore the background of the author and the content of theneport.

The Author - Tricia Parks, with a Little Help

thoughtfully to me, 'You know . . . Tricia is a really goodanalyst. " I said, "Yes, I know. "'

Texas fnstmments.

r3 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Home Automatbn 88: AMarket Ountieut will impactyourthinking in such a wa! that it willbe aery dfficult to go back to acomponent-centned aiew of theworld. You will Think Systems'

B7 the way in spite of all thosestudies to yawn to, markets rarelyeuolae smoothly or as we expect

The Content - Ifome Automation'It (this report) will allow the strategic plannn to take a point ofoiew that is biggn than the singh poduct he is deoeloping andlook at whne it might fit in a oery large picture.'

- Tricia Parks

All market studies talk about the future. Usually thefuture they discuss is evolutionary. Not so here.

'Ifome automatbn is tlu integrating of residentialsystems and elutrcnic prod,ucts through the additbn ofmicroprocasor-based intelligence ard interproductcommunicatbrc capabilitics. . . . Inclules security,communication equipmen| heat, oentilation, and air-conditiong(HVAC), entertainment, lighting, and appliance poducts.'

- Etcecutioe SummaryHome Automation 88: A Market Ouentizut

Home antomation may sound like an evolution but it isnot. The big reasons everyone will want it haven't beenimagined yet. But we have enough reasons for a beginning.And the future is built one day at a time.

If you're skeptical about home automation, this report willchange your mind. There are all the right consumer percep-tions. All the big guns are involved, like theJapanese and thephone companies and . . . Orly the computer companies areasleep. This report provides detail about what's going on nowwith profiles of the participating companies and their products.It explains the technology. You'll understand the benelits homeautomation will provide. The Scenarbsfor Deoelopmenf Chapterexplores how the industry may evolve.

Home Aulomolion Sysfem Levelr & EvolufionSource: Porks Associqles

Hlgh-End Central Coniioller

" Home automation is an tmbryonicindustry, and its definition must beelastic. As the industry eooloes, thisdefinition maj brooden or nalroudepending on both manufacturr and,market actiaity" - from the report

Home automation is a gigantic step-function. It is warp drioe. It is notcomponents - it is System. It isSuperconnectiaitlt

Can the EIA, the NationalAssociation of Home Buildns, TheE lec tro nic I ndus try A s s o ciationJapan, and a host of companies likeATGT and Mitsubishi and X-10(USA) all be wrong? And these arejust afew of the pionens. Wait 'til

lou see who's comin'

Home automation systmts will haoedilfrent leoels of capability, and allleoels will substantially innease intheir ability t0 act int;ll;gently oncombinations of the homeownerinstructions, external inputs andnew internal conditions. I canhardQ uait - I want my house toall but read my mind. I uant it toIearn my habits and optimize mycomfort, securiry and pleasure at alltimes. And it had bettn saoe metime and mone!. And, for heaoen'ssake, it should sta! out of my way.Afttr all, uhat's a good housefor?

Intrg?atrd whob-HouaaControllor!

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+ mull iplc lni. l l ie.nl. Erpaal ryalan

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null lpl. . LlmlLd rpplia.tionlublylLnr ganatallon by

honaownarl

. Llnil.d Input

. Controlr l inelc tunclionrl ona lima

. Prlmlrl ly pos.l inacr.rl.r bracd

. Ona-wry

. Tm-ray connunlolllona

. RF or po*lrllno

. Cdlroll.ra c.prbL ofprocarrlng roaarlrlnultrnooua Inpula

. Llnla io olhar nadlr ruchr Dhon.a, lR, RF, ab.

t4 @ tggg by Future Think, Inc.

The basic home automation systrmstructure is well undnstood. ButTricia says the senet in reallycomprehending it is to'Think System. Ifomeautomation is tlu System, not acollection of indbiiual Ttarts."The trouble is standards, of course.And wouldyou belieoe, nearfit eorysubs1stem is built by a dilferentmandacturn and sold ands up p or t ed t hr ough dilfn entdistribution c hannels? HotmeAutomatbn 88: A MarketOaeruicut gioes a good discussion ofs tandards progres s and distributionchallenges as well as explaining thetechnologt

If yu haae real intelligence in thehome, old,ing outside informationand intelligence communicatingdirectly with the home gioes 1oumuch more than the sum of theparts. For exampb, I would like toselect from a menu the types ofteleaision programs I enjoy, thenhaoe an outside information snaicefud ryt home automation sltstmt theappopriale schedules so that mysysttm will tape the shows, tell mewhen something I am intnested in ison, or ptrform whateon script Ihaoe chosenfor that particularsubject

Home automation will make someintnesting bedfellows. Years ago inmy speeches about pnsonalcomputns eotrlone looed my jokeabout Sears selling IBM computns.I know, you don't see why it wasfun l. Well, back then IBMdidn't make small computns andSears cntainly didn't sell thnn nordid eithr take the ideas sniously.Home Automation may make eoenmore unexpected alliaices. Tricia'sexamples are oer! imaginatioe -and each has a grain of truth

Infegrofed Home Aufomolion Syrlem SlrucfureSource: Pqrks Associofes

Home Informofion Seryicer PictureSource: Porkc Associofes

TelephoneNetworks

Data Flou

R€mote dat! goo. through Remotg

tsl€phono linol to Yhol€- Datahou8e conlrollor for uae or BaSeSatorlgo lccording to hout€rul€a and n€€dr. Aa n€ede4data uacd for Indlvldualproduct control or to ptovid!hom€ouncr wlth Inlotnr,itlon.

Home Automolion Joinf Venture Porficiponf PossibilitiesSource; Pqrks Associotes

Syatom Sottwara

Conirol. lh. be.lc arpabllllyol lha lnlcgrrl.d .y.tcm

Appllc.tion Soltw.ro

lmpl.m.nt. hlgh.r l.v.l tuncby u.lng ..qucnc.. ot br.lcloF l.Y.l luncllon.

Oth.rSub.y.l.mr

Ful l t0Hon.ysl l

John.o. Control.IBM

Mltrublrhl

. Te.l Msrkst2O0-5OO hom.r

. Tu?n key lul l r rry icrlo homoovnetl

. R€aerrch Tool

t5 @ 1983 by Future Think, Inc.

Th* drawing shows themethodo loglt for constructing theforecast. Aftn studying seonalpotentially comparable rates oftechnologlt dffision, e. g. electricity,te lep hones, air - conditioning,teleoision, and, VCRs; airconditioning was chosen as the bestmodel for home automationintelligent controllns. Ia/hl?Tricia belieoes home automationwill be a benefit market - lourAunt in Kansas may not haoeuanted an air- conditioning systmt,but she definitely wanted to be cool

I'll be thne, too. Although I'aebecome a homebodl, I couldn't sayno to Tricia. I think I am on apanel of people who haoe learnedabout home automation the hard wa1

44 companies haoe alreadypurchased Home Automatian 88:A Market Ounticut. Theyinclude the telephone equipmentcompanies, AT(IT, all the BellOpnating Companies, seaurityc omp ani e s, air - co ndi t io ningcompanies, home entntainmentcompanies, pown distributionc omp ani e s, s mti co nduc torcompanies, pionens in homeautomation and a couple who maysurprise us. The responsetrom thepurchasns has been skewed towardthe raoe reoiew end of the scale.The ones who haoen'l purchased -comput f icompanies. . . .Guess they'oe lost their oision

US Morkef Forecori Model- High-End Confroller MorkefSource: Porkr Asociofer

Parks Associates forecasts nearly a million units of high-end central controllers and intelligent subsystem controllers-by1996 and over 2.4 million by 2000. Low-end controllers areforecasted separately.

Other Parks Associates Products

Fonrm 88: Intelligent Prcdtrcts, Systems, and Senicesfor theHome is coming up December 1 & 2, 1988 at the Sheraton ParkCentral, Dallas. Everyone in home automation will be there -that's apparent from the speaker list.

Tricia will be releasing another report that builds on thisone next year, and selling it - and this one - separately, and ascompanion products. This one, released in March 1988, will bea landmark for some time. I've also heard rumors of a journal ora newsletter or something. . .

The Beginning, I Expect

This report is both a culmination and a beginning. It is not theresult of a good analyst's one year study, as m;ury quality reportsare. The taking-offplace for Tricia's research was the years shehad spent analyzing the home computer market, the consumerelectronics market, the market for consumer information servicesand the potential for home automation. On top of thatbackground she did the specific research for Home Automation88: A Markt Ouenticut - and it shows. The depth ofunderstanding she brings to this subject could only be throughyears of first-hand experience - hers and the experiences ofmany others who have shared theirs with her. Tricia knowseveryone. The report is a beginning - in that home automationis at the beginning. I hope Tricia continues her role as aparticipant, catalyst and analyst because her work will surelyhasten the development of this important technology thatpromises to enrich our daily lives.

16 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

A lincfonncd of pcople waiting lo talk tous about thc cxploding pcrsonal computcrmarlvt. ThE wantcd to imprcss us uiththcir product or plan (word was wci4flrctued &ars' buying dtcisions andprobabll otlur rctailcrs' plans too)

Ticia'sfirst act uas to rctnin DaaidFicgamhul to fusign a lookfor FulureComputing. I nccdn'l tcll yu our crystnlball wnl awa2. Daaid's bcm doing nrydtsign eacr incc - and Ticia's. Hc didFuturc Thinh's look and hc did Ticia'sdtsigncr notcbook. . . . No wondrr I lilu it

A largc part of whal Future Computingbccame was Ticia's hanliwork. Othcrthan Egil, thcrc was n0 pcrson in my ycarsoJ Fulurc Computing that I rclicd on morcthan I did Ticia. I loucd to listat to hcron thc phonc. And I rcmcrnbr ourfirstmillion dollar manth . . .

I had no actiuc rolc in Intcllisys othcr thana lot of opinions about what an autonntedhomt should bc. I was too buslt with rytnidlifc cisis - doingfun things liluworking on m2 autobiograph2 and stud2ingthc ancimtforccasting arts, c.g. astrologlt

For Additional Information aboutHome Automation BB: A market Oaeruieu Contact:

Parks Associates13227 Hughes LaneDallas, TX 752+9

2t+t392-9855 Fax: 2l*1392-9856

1. I first met Tricia in 1982. It was on an American Airlines flight toAtlantic City (or Philadelphia maybe). She was going to COMDEX.''So was I.

It was the early days of Future Computing. We had just released ourfirst (first by anyone, in fact) computer retail survey. That was the goodnews. The bad news was if we didn't sell several within just a few weekswe would not be able to make the payroll for our little 15 p€rson company.So I had done the only logical thing. I took the money we had and paidMr. Adelson for a 10x10 booth and bought a few airline tickets. Mine wasFirst Class - broke or not

As the door to the plane was closed, Tricia was moved from coach to theseat beside me. But I was the lucky one that day. We talked all the way toAtlantic City. About writing and marketing and consulting and moneyand market research.

From orrr table top booth on the main (read only) COMDEX floor withour crystal-ball logo framed and hanging at the back of the booth on thecurtain, we sold more than enough reports to make the payroll. We werethe only market research firm there. Seemed everyone wanted to knowabout computer retailers. And they were imprcssed. The industry hadrarely seen a market research firm rich enough to afford a booth at a tradeshow.

Back in Dallas I thorrght Egil was going to croak when I told him that Iwanted to hire a marketing consultant for $6,000/month - part-time. ButI can be persuasive. Soon afterwards Tricia became Future Computing'sMarketing Vice President. She was always our ace salesperson no matterwhat we called her. In 1983 she chose to become the head of FutureComputing's new flome Computer Group, launching an annrralsubscription service in the heyday of the home computer business. I recall300 people once at one of orrr llome Computer Fomms.

Tricia and I are alike in many ways. But she had talents andcharacteristics that I didn't - and that I admired so ntuch in her - forexample, she could write. I mean really pound out the words - wordsthat I wished I had said. That was before I had confidence in my ability tocommunicate on paper. I could talk (there are many witnesses to thatphenomenon), but a piece of blank paper strrmped me. I conquered it byhaving Lorene O'Neil, my ace assistant for years, transcribe my speeches.Eventually I learned to write like I talk (of course, I must publish my ownstuff). You're welcome.

We were about 140 employees when McGraw-Hill bought FutureComputing in 1984. In 1985 Tricia left to strike out on her own again. Inlate 1985 I left also - I wasn't planning to strike out anywhere. . . . I wasjust tired. Future Computing's rapid growth followed by the greatcomputer industry slump of 1985 had done me in.

But I had been designing and building a house which had become moreand more electronic, then integrated, until it wound up a bttsiness conceptfor Intellisys - a company Egil and I created. The plan was to build thefirst software and a few hardware widgets for a totally integrated electronichome and use the house we were building as the prototype . Tricia canle asMarketing VP. Don Bynum, former head of TI's Flome ComputerGroup, was President. Egil was Chairnran.

l 7 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

For the ailirc timt I liucd in tlu Intcllis2shousc, it was bcing dtadopcd andcxpcimailcd with - as it should haacbem. I callcd tlu prograramers m2 closclpcoplc. No matbr what I was dning at an2tiru of thc dn2 or night I was likcl2 tofindthcm in thc oddtst placcs. Ifit wanz't thcclosct pcoplc, it was lhc prcss. ThE loacdlhat housc. ABC Netunrk News,Lifestyles of tlw Rich and Famous,Beyond 2000, and Good MorningAmerica to namc afcw

In that trailer I had to mouc SnulJlcs, m1Shar-Pci pup, to put aua! m2 bcd, to uscthe tablc to put m) computcr on so I couldwitc duing thc dny. I'uc wonfurcd iJlhcrc wcrc morc clcctronics pcr squrc foot inthat trailcr than in thc Intettisys houi

ThcJcu million wc had dumpcd into thathouse and Intcllisys was approaching thcfcw million wc had bcm paidfor FuturcC omputing by M cGraw - Hi ll

We rcmoacd thc inhgrahd clcctronicfunctionaliEfrom tlu housc although it issl;ll paclvd u;th "ordinnry" clectronics likc

fanc2 lighting control and. thrcc mtdiaccnters. And it is bcautiful. It is alsoJorsalcfor just a littlc oacr a million - asteal for anyonc who can afford a rcallltgorgcous housc in Dallas. Infact, tf wcscll cnough Future Thinltzr subsciptions,I just might lvcp that housc

His words, bul lhc idca is popping out alloacr. 9c Future Thinlur past

I did live in the house, alone after Egil and I were divorced - like amouse in a laboratory. Beautiful, but a lab nonetheless. 6,000 square feetof magnificent white cubic stucco, black granite floors, and glass andmirrors everywhere. Backed up to a creek in the heart of Dallas. 2ltelevisions, 3 media centers, I I computers, fanciest phones you've everseen. With the phone or the light gun I could control anything in thehouse from anywhere in the house - security, televisions, audio and videodevices, doors, telephones, spa, pool, lights, heating & air conditioning -that is, when it worked. Remember it was a lab. We experimented withscripted control. With voice control through the phone. With light penconrol at any video screen. And the house talked back, volunteeringinformation like tornado warnings or answering inquiries from outside thehouse over the phone.

The computer software necessary to accomplish all this was somethingto behold. flowever, I did grow weary of living in an pre-alpha-testcomputer system.

I bet it's easy for you to understand why I moved to Manitou Springs,Colorado with my dog and computer into a 16 ft. long, 7 ft. wide trailer.In that little trailer by a river under the trees, I had my Compaq III, anHP LaserJet, a cellular phone, a cassette player and CD player withterrific little battery-powered speakers, and a color video camera whichalso played video tapes on my TV. None of it was integrated but it was inclose quarters. I wanted to do my writing outside under the trees by theriver and as the Compaq III screen is not usable in light, I decided to buya Zenith 181 with that wonderful backlit LCD screen. My husband,Dexter, first saw me sitting yoga-style on the sidewalk in front of ColoradoSoftwarc, a systems house in which he is a partner, in the bright Coloradosun testing the Zenith 181 which was sitting on the sidewalk in front of me.I bought it and was married six months later. Eventually I moved into myColorado Springs home after the remodeling was finished - complete witha security system I can't use - no light pen,

Meanwhile back in Dallas . . . It had became clear that venture frrndingwas not to be had for such a long-term plan, so Egil and I decided toliquidate Intellisys. We had sure learned a lot. Much of it was first hand,but we had also gather€d much information from would-be homeautomation participants and consumers. For example, we had done quitea number of focus grolrps with consumers at the house to determine theirinterest in the variorrs features of an automated home, Tricia was thebrains behind the focus groups. We also held a successful forum forcompanies interested in home automation. The attendees were who's whoin the infant industry. Again, Tricia's work.

When Intellisys folded, Tricia gave birth to Parks Associates. I wouldbet on its long-term contribution and strccess.

Through the years Tricia became a friend. We even had the same tastein clothes. At first we marveled to discover that we actrrally owned someidentical clothes, later we learned to check with the other. Our birthday ison the same day (September 7). She is 6 years younger for those of youwho corrnt. On one's birthday, it was a Future Computing policy thatafter 5:00 PM you could go barefoot (if you weren't already) and drinkChivas to your heart's content. We did. I have a sister whom I love verymuch, but if I had another I would want her to be Tricia.

So how could I possibly be more biased?

I think I recognize that laser printer. It's Lorene O'Neil's. Lorene wasmy assistant for years. She started a secretarial service when I moved toColorado. I traded her that Mac and printer to continue doing some workfor me. If you corrld use some help, she's the best."Gentlemen, Gentlemen, Gentlemen. Think System! Stop with the bitsand the components! Think System!" Tricia attribrrtes these words toGene Lubchenko, Director of Research at Philips.Shhh! Mr Adelson would prcfer that we all forget that COMDEX wasonce in Atlantic City. I ' l l never forget!

o

3 .

+.

18 @ 19S8 by Future Think, Inc.

REVIEW

Priced at fi345 U.5., released inJUQ eachyar, MID-TERM issold to about 1,000 future thinkingexecutioes in our industry. Of these,about 400 are distributed at one-daystminars of the same name. But thereport stands alone - beautifully.STATUS is released inJanuary, is$350, and also has a companionone-day sminar

Let's see . . . 600 purchasns (notcounting 400 stminar altendees) x$345 each;s fi207,000f0r eachedition - that's twice the reoenue ofa successful report in our industry.No doubt about it - ICE(Integrated Circuit EngineningCorporation' s nickname,pronounced I-See-E) has a winner.The/oe had 21 years to get ;t r;ghtand they did!

ICEforecasts one European, lhreeAmaican, and six Japanesecompanies arnong the top ten inmnchant smticonductor sales in1988. Intel, riding the boom inmiroprocessor sales, is the fastestgrowing, mooingfrom not being onthe chart in 1986, to Bth place lastyear, and to 6th this yar

MID.TERM,T988..Integroted Gircuit Engineering Corporolion

MID-TERM 1988 is short for MID-TEKM 1988, Status andForuast of tlu Integrated Circuit Indttstry.r' The tide is the onlyplace where this annual repon is short. It is the mid-yearcompanion to STATUS, A Reprt on tlw Integrated CircaitIndttstry. Since 1967 these rcports have found wide readershipamong semiconductor manufacturers, semiconductor companysuppliers and semiconductor users.

Each MID-TERM and STATU^f are complete updates ofa thorough integrated circuit industry overview. MID'TERM1988 contains 251 pages and has 255 beautifully producedexhibits sprinkled among the comprehensive and easy to follownalTatrve.

Although 1,000 purchasers is an awesome mrmber, therecould be even mone. Every executive in the computer,telecommunications, electronics and office products industriesmakes assumptions dependent on our base semiconductorindustry as a major force for price-perforrnarlce improvements.Tracking that many-headed, fast-footed monster shouldn't beleft to reading bits and pieces between advertisements. Now andthen one needs an expert, thorough, tutorial look at what it's allabout. Both MID-TDRM and STATU,S provide that.

The Integrated Circuit Industry

The integrated circuit industry's top ten companies change morerapidly than some of them wish.

Worldwide Top Ten Merchonl Semiconductor CompqniesForecosted {988 SolesSource: Integroled Circuit Engineering Corporolion

ForecaBtsd 1988 SaleB$ Mi l l ionB

4250

4000

3750

3500

3250

3000

2750

2so0

2250

2000

1 750

I 500

PHIL IPS IMATSUSHITA

19 @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Worldwide Merchonf Semiconductor Consumpfion{987 ond Forecqsted t988Source Integrofed Circuil Engineering Corporqtion

Snniconductor companies sell intofiae market segments. Computnsand data communications is thelargest and most rapid$ growingsegment. ICE expects this segmentto grow 517o in 1988, thnebycomprising 38% of the worlduidestmiconductor market

See thefigure below

I nt e gr at ed C ir cui t Engine aingC or por ati o n s ay s s nni c onduc torsales range between 11% ard 147oof electronic equipment sales. Salesare in the 11%-12% range whenan onffsupply of integrated circuitshas forced down the anerage sellingprice; they are in the 13%-14%range during pniods when supplyand, dtnand are more eoen[t matched

See thefigureon the next page

r98A/1S47GHANGE (g) 1988 (FCST)| 9 8 7

MILITARY 6tr

INOUSTRIAL 12JI

TELEPHONY 18*

CONSUMER/AUTOMOTIVE

31*

COMPUTER/DATACOM

3 3r!

($s7B)

MILITARY 5*

INDUSTRIAL 1li

TELEPHONY 17*

CONSUMER/AUTOMOTIVE

29*

COMPUTER/DATACOM

38*

($488)

FLAT

.19$

.23*

Semiconductor sales track the sales of the electronicequipment in which they are incorporated. According to ICE,the higher semiconductor annual growth rate has been caused bythe increasing semiconductor content of electronic equipment.

Elecfronic Equipment qnd Semiconductor Soles Trends4983 - 1992Source: Integrof ed Circuit Engineering Corporof ion

Worldslda f.illcondrcto.Worldsld. El.otronloEqulpn.nt 8rl.rI Bll l lon.800

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r983-l- 20r902€er1985 1986 1987 1986 1969 t900

YEAR' lmludlng opt lF' l f r

- It's not a smooth ride. Semiconductor pnoduction growthrates2' have been a complex function of semicdnductorproduction capacity, semiconductor users' (OEMs' ) plannedproduction of end-use equipment, OEMs' semiconductorinventory, bookings (onders counted at the time of the order),billings (orders counted at the time they are shipped and billed),and currency anomalies. Boom and bust cycles in OEMindustries have a whiplash effect on the semiconductor industry.

20 O 19BS by Future Think, Inc.

Oonly optimistic ordning by tooman! companies caused ercessproduction and inoentory in 1984,which in turn caused the contractionin 1985. ICE notes that the highgrowth rates of 217o in 1986 and1987 would haoe been less than15%, had it not beenfor caffenc!anomalies. ICE does an ercellentjob of making these complex issueseasy to undnstand

The solution - well, we reallydon't haoe oneyet

Since the woes of 1985, thcre haoebeen U.S. accusations oJdumpingbyJapanese companies, quotas futJapan, Inc. (MITI), attnnpts toset fair-market oalues (FfuIVs) $tthe U.5., scteamingby OEMsabout the lack of parts and priceinneases - and eoen plans b1 someOEMs, who hadformnQ used onlymcr c hant mar ke t s mi c o nduc t orparts, to build their owns nni c o nduc tor manufac tur i ngcapability. So gennally we haoetaken the constraints olf now andfree-entaprise is back at work. . . .sta! tuned

Worldwide' Semiconduclor Producfion Growlh Rotes ($)19741988Source: lntegrof ed Circuit Engineering Corporofion

P6rcontago Chango

39 za* 29a26r.% m 2sr

21A 21*

compzrnres.

504540

3530

25201 5

10

o- 5

- 1 0- 1 5

1974 1976

.lnoludlng oaptlve

Bookings, billings and inventory of each OEM aredependent on the OEM's plan and performance against the planin the end-use market. If his plan is overly optimistic or if he ispessimistic about getting all the parts he orders, the OEM mayorder too large a quantity or place duplicate orders with differento large a quantrty or Prace ouPrrcate oroers wrrlr ourerel

ies. And when there are too m:rny companies even in agrowing market, e.g. personal computer manufacturers in 1984,their combined ootimistic orders ftookines) are far beyond whattheir combined optimistic orders (bookings) are far beyond whatwill actually be absorbed by the end use market. A shake-out ofOEMs occurs, the semiconductor parts inventory of thesurvivors increases, and the semiconductor companies are leftholding the bag - bad news.

OEM lC Usoge versur Computer ond CommunicolionsEquipment Produclion (U.S.): {982 -{988Source: Integrofed Circuit Engineering Corporotion

2 1 0

200

190

r80

170

160

150

r40

130

120

r 1 0

100

90

(NOFMALIZED TO 2ND HALF 1OE2)

OEUr bUlLDlNcPOINTS WHERE IC USAGE I9

- OEI IC RECEIPIS U.A. OOUPUTER I COII. EQUIPTEXI PRODUCTIOT

2r @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Eoen if yur mission does notrequire knowledge of day-to-daystmiconductor industry trends, Irecommend buling this report orSTATUS eoer! lear or so just to besure aboutltour basics. And at$345, it's a steal

ICE grew up withthe industry it snoes

ICE Jeatures the authors andgraphic designns on the coon page.Tmific!

Helen's extensioe background intechnical and adontising art reallyshous. Thanks

Its completeness is what makes this report unique - one place tolook for what many executives in the semiconductor and relatedindustries need to know about the semiconductor business. Inaddition to the economic update and analyses of both merchant

About Integrated Circuit Engineering Corporation

The Makets oI.MID-TERM 1988MID-TERM 1988 was edited by WilliamJ. (Bill) McClean whois ICE's Manager of Market Research. Contributors includedScott Hudson, Research Analyst; Richard Skinner, ICE'sPresident; and Nancy Voorhaar, Research Analyst.

Graphic Design for MID-TERM 1988 was done by HelenPitcher, ICE'S Manager Graphics Communication Division.

Other Products and Services

of both m:rnagement and technical staff.

For Additional Information aboutMid-Term 1988 Contact:

Integrated Circuit Engineering Corporation15022 N. 75th StreetScottsdale, AZ 85260

t .

602/998-9780 Fax: 602/948-1925

lntegrated circuit industry versus semiconductor industry. These termsare used almost interchangeably - not quite. Semicondrtctors includesdiscrete devices (single frrnction, one-transistor devices) and integratedcircuits (two or more functions per chip). So the integrated circuitindustry, strictly speaking, excludes discrete devices.Semiconductor production growth rate is calculated thus: the sales indollars at the beginning ofthe year is subtracted from the sales at the endof the year, then the result is divided by the sales at the beginning. Toobtain worldwide sales in dollars, foreign currencies must be converted. Ifthe exchange rate is different at the end ofthe year from the rate at thebeginning, the growth rate reflects the currency anomaly.

2.

22 @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

REVIEW

It's for computer and softwareoendors. Priced at $1,495, itspcrfect-bound 254 pages (36figures) are a pragmatic anafusis oJthe changingfacets of competition asthe boundary fades between PCs andworkstations. What's thediffaence? Roots. Prsonalcomputtr oendors haoe their roots inthe PC business. The roots ofworkstation oendors are in theworkstation business. Today withthe new gennation of each comingoff the line, afamily tree is needidto tell who's who

Summit Stratcgics gets good marksfor itsreferenccs to othcr rcsearchcrs'matcial itused with pcrmission. Eacn whcnSummil's presantation is a fuiuatiac ofanothcr re scarchcr's i4formntion, thcrcfcrancc is gtucn. Tom salts his strmgth isanal2sis, nol nutnbcrs, so lufcaturesnumbcrs from othcr firms wlurc nccfud.M2 only suggcstcd improacmmt would bcto sct a good cxamplcfor thc prcss b2 giuingtlu city or phonc numbcr of tlurcfcrmccdfirm

Monoging fihe Merger ol PGsdnd Ensineerins Workslolionsdnd Engrneerng YSummil Slrotegiesond The S. Klein Librory Serieson Compuler Grophics

Platform Khornerstonest' CPU Pricez'

r B M P C / X T . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 2 1 . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 0 8 8I B M P C / A T ( B M H z ) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 1 4 . . . . . . . . . . . 8 0 2 8 6IBM PS/2 Mod 50 . . . . . .958 . . . . . . . . . . . 80286Compaq Deskpro 386 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 ,94 I . . . . . . . . . . . 80386Sun 3 /52 2 ,200. . . . . . . . . . .68020IBM PS/2 Mod B0 (16 MHz).. . . . .2,265 80396.. . . . . $13,945Apple Macintosh I I . .2,400 68020.. . . . . $10,794Apo l lo DN 3000 . . . . . .2 ,582 68020. . . . . . $12 ,400S u n 3 / 1 6 0 . . . 3 , 0 1 7 . . . . . . . . . . . 6 8 0 2 0 . . . . . . $ 1 2 , 9 0 0Compaq Deskpro 386/20/DOS .. . . 3,927 . . . . . . . . . . . 80386.. . . . . $1 2,3 I 3Compaq Deskpro 386/20/UNIX.. 4,67 4.. . . . . . . . . . 80386A p o l l o D N 4 0 0 0 . . . . . . 5 , 2 0 0 . . . . . . . . . . . 6 B 0 2 0Sun 386 i (25 MHz) . .5 ,317. . . . . . . . . . .80386I B M R T P C . . . . . . . . . . . 5 , 7 7 I . . . . I B M R I S CSun 3 /260. . . 6 ,767 . . . . . . . . . . .68020Sun 4 /260. . . 11 ,440. . . . . . . . SPARCM I P S M 1 2 0 - 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2 3 , 2 1 8 . . . . . . . . . . R 2 0 0 0

1. Khornerstones is a benchmark rating developed by Workstarion Labs. Itis based on a weighted average of 22 separate tests of I/O, CPIJ, andfloating point performance. Measurcments are linear.

2. Prices are list prices of configurations as near as possible to 4 Mbytes ofmemory, 70 Mbytes of hard disk, 16-inch high-resolution color displayand 32-bit floating point coprocessor.

23 @ tggg by Future Think, Inc.

These applications are characterizedby the needforfantastic graphicsand high-pnformance proces sors

Computn stores Jrom below,

hundred intnoiews uith distributionchannel participants were done asbackgroundfor this report. Thegoal - undnstanding, notquanlitatioe results

Summit forecosts major shifts inmarket share between PCs andworkstations in those applicationareas traditionally dominated futworkstations. This chart shows

aendor to do? Summit say RISCwill pro oide bettn price-pcrformancein aful$ scaled produet line andworkstation oendors haoe alwayshod bettn integration andcommunication. . . . But that'sanother report (see next page)

Summit Strategies . . . I didn't askTom how he came up with thename, but I canjust see himstarding atop a nice mountain, nottoo high, his hand shoding his eysas he seans the horizon of thecnmputtr industry for the big issues- the frontins of change

The report's major focus is on distribution channels whichare pivotal for both software developers and computer vendors.

Will everyone find a niche, or will there be bodies all over

The Botlom Line -- Projected Morket Shore by ApplicotionUnits S,tripped -- PCr ond Worksfotions -- {986 ond {990Source: Summit Strotegies

r986r990

19E6

r990

V- pcc f---1 workctationc

The Author

24 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Summit markets its snoices directfitand indioidual reports are marketedby other companies such as Datek,and this one by Intertec

I was planning to rcaiew OS/2Pres ent at ion M anag er : C ompt il *nStrategies in tfu New GraphicalWorld. I liktd il. Howcacr, Managingthe Merger oJ PCs and Dngilr.ezrhryWorlstatiotu is morc rcpresmtatiac ofSummi t' s pre smt di rcc ti ons

Tom recendy added a salesperson to Summit Strategies'stafland introduced an annual planning service, which includessix reports and three days consulting ($7,895). The reports inthe series are also available separately and include:

* OS/2 Presmtation Manager Comptitioe Strutegies k the NatGraphical WorU

* Graphical Wiilouing Enoircnments: Appnunities and Pitfalkfor Graphies Hardrmn and Sortunre Vendors

* D$nhg tlw Next Generation of Graphics Applieatbrc:Idmtifukg atd Driohg Neu Mdrleets

* TLc Battle Batuen CISC atd RIJCI CompethryforTomotmw's 32-Bit Graphbs Marlea

* TLc Nert Gcrcrction of PC Graphics Hardunre: Capbilitizs'M arleets and Comptition

* Imaghry Modek: D$nhtg, Assessitry, and Implementing

The Co-Publisher

The J. Klein Neusletter on Computer Graphics has served itsreaders since 1978 and now has over 2,000 subscribers. Recently

E ng ince ing Wo rk t at b ns .

For More Information on Summit StrategiesContact:

Summit StrategiesP.O. Box774Prudential Center StationBoston, MA 02199

617 /266-9050 Eax: 617 /437-9655

For More fnformation about The S. Klein LibrarySeries on Computer Graphics Contact:

The S. Klein Library Series on Computer GraphicsIntertec Publishing Corporation730 Boston Post RoadSudbury, MA 01776

508/++3-467t Fax: 508/443-8990

I . C AD/C AM/CAE - Computer-Aided Desi grr/Computer-AidedManufacturin g/Computer-Aided En gineerin g

25 @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

REVIEW

Each month's subjects are importantand timely issues to telecommuni-cations industrlt executioes. TSL isdone with a style that NorthnnBusiness Information has mastned-facts, figures, models, guesses,definitioe po sitions, worldpnspectiae and depth of knowledgethat could onfi be acquired throughyars of anauti"S that Medusa uecall telecommunications. NorthnnBusiness Information has noconflicts of intnest - they do noconsulting. It shows. They call itIike they see it, no mattr uhosetoes they stomp on

The Telecom Strategy Letter isheaay information packed into 12-16 pages pn month. At $995 per1ear, it appears expensiae. Euen atfi995, it is an excellent oalue. Thecost might be better rationalized ifone thinks of it as a 160-page reporton the nitical issues in the uorldtelecom industry, with occasionalsummary forecasts and strategicinsights into major participants.Unlike most reports, it is delionedin monthly sections

The Telecom Slrolegy LetterNorlhern Business Informqtion/Dolo pro

'Our goal is to identifl discontinuities in the market both U.S.and worldwide that people can cash in on. We're lookingforbreaks, changes in how things work that will create opportunitiesfor our read,ns.'

- Sean'l,l/hite, Co-foundnNorthnn Business Information/Datapro

And they find 'em. At least often enough to keepsubscribers coming back year after year.

Northern Business fnformation's Flagship

Started in December 19B2, Thc Telecom Strategt Letter (f^tZ) isNorthern Business Information's fl agship monthly communi-cation of its position on and analysis of key issues in the yorldtelecoml' industry. Subscribers i.e e*ecniirres in RHCs2'telecommunications equipment companies ana foreign iirr'' -250 of them in all. 407o are outside North America. Most are inmarketing, sales and planning, but quite a number are CEOs.Many have been Northern Business Information subscribers andhave shared the batde scars of the telecom business for years.Thev know the value of an earlv look at Northern BusinessInformation's thinking.

A world view - region by regionThe Telecom Strateglt Letter takes a world view - requiredbecause telecommunications equipment and services is a worldindustry. and a world market. Its players include giganticcompanies, governments, states, cities and even consumers.One gets the impression that Northern Business Information candiscuis the PTTin Spain or the NTT4' inJapan with as muchdepth as they can New York City's telephone system woes orIBM's transition to a telecom company - and they can certainlyexpound on these subjects.

Itts a working documentPositions appear rn Tlu Telecom Strategy Letter as soon as theyhave started to jell. Several months later when these ideas havegrown up, stood the test of even more research and perhaps evenchanged perspective, m:rny will find their way into a researchreport, for example ATT: A Strategic Atnfusis (See FutureThinker #1) or Trarcmission Equipment Markets: 1988 Edition.Subscribers like the insider feeling of participating in NorthernBusiness Information's working ideas.

26 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

The Issues in the fssues

Each issue of Tlu Telecom Strategt Letter is devoted to two orthree subjects. Examples in recent issues include:

r T'lw Nclut Mdct IBM - see below.t A Neut Marlwting Framanrk at Nortllern Telrcon - see below.

t AT(9T dnd tlv RHCs - see below.

"Bell System" construction. The conclusions are for today.t SONET - analysis of the next discontinuity in the U.S.

public telecom market - Synchronous Optical Network. - - -tz World Denend Foruasts - Forccasts and historical data 1982'

1992 by region of the world, equipment tyPe and supplier.

. Here are glimpses of a few Northern Business Informationvrews -

The Neut Model IBM'IBM has announced its newmission : network managmtent.During the next decade IBM uilltransform itself from a hardware-dependent computsr oendor to aoalue-added supplin of network andinformation managnnent services. .. . Our most important conclusion isthis: computns begone - todalIBM;s a fi54 billion telecomcompany, whose size andc apabi li ties o o n s hodo w eo ery o t hertelecom operation in the world. Youhaoe been told.' - TSL

A Neut Marketing Frameunrkat Northern Telecom" Northnn Telecom is turningtroditional marketing strateglt on itshead . . . . Newmethodso fintegrating custrmer relations andproduct deoelopment may changeforeon the way high technologltcompanies do business. . . . ATechnical Adoisory Council, of 22of its most important customas andBellcore'', suggests, approaes, andadaises on all newfeatures andfunc t i ons . . . . i n f f i c t t hecompang s oirtual designmanagtment team.n - TSL

TURNKEYVOICE AND DATANETWOFKS

STAND ALONEVOICE AND DATAPROCESSINGNODES

I cr.tfi;lI Manufacturlng l+ | R€htlon. l+

I Platlorm

I

IBM: Strotegic Repositioning'1985-'1995Source: Nolfhern Business lhformotion/Dolopro

IBM TOOAY

ReD' i l.Nlrctu.lng' g.tL,tnt' Srlla/Sltvlc!

INCREASING \ALUE ADDEO

Northern Telecom Morkeling PlqfformSource: Norlhern Business Informotion/Dofopro

ManutacturlngTechnology

Marl€tlngSlogan

R t o

Malketlng

Sales

CuatomorFl,elatlonaPlatlorm

CurtomerR€latlonrPlatlorm

CustomotR6latlonaPlatlorm

CUSTOMERMARKETPdER

SeleoStrategy

@8ffi_

AT€fT and tfu RHCs'The RHCs haoe a problm withAT(IT: theirformer parent is atonce their largest supplin, theirlargest cuslomer, and their largestcompetitor. Undn suchcircumstances, relations can easi[tbecome charged with nnotion. Andemo tion- laden business decisions,needless to sa!, are unall2 badones. . . . To mature in the post-diaestiture enoironment, the RHCsmust compartmentalize theirrelatiors u;th AT9T. Thegoornment neated the unusual mixof relationships the RHCs mustmaintain with ATGT; ongoingregulation oJten erncnbates difficultrelationships. Howeoer, thue is noreason why ATUT and itsformeroperating companies cannot allbenefit from the undr$ting strengthof tha market. r - TSL

AT&T ond lhe RHCg: Poinlr of ConfliclSource: Norf hern Busineu Informof ion/Dotqpro

Regionol Holding Componies' Alliludes to AT&TSource: Norfhern Business Informqfion/Dqtqpro

Ameritech - Excellent; remains a prime customer of AT&T; AT&T-Network Systems will connect its new test bed facility toIllinois Bell's network.

Bell Atlantic - Excellent; AT&T is the biggest customer in NewJersey,and Bell Atlantic knows it; Bell Atlantic is AT&T's #1 RHCCO6' switching customer,'and #2 transmission customer;Bell Atlantic is increasing CO purchases from Siemens toimprove leverage.

BellSouth - Has made a big shift to Northern Telecom for networksystems; Southern Bell alone slashed purchases from AT&Tby a staggering $150 million in 1987; remains AT&T-NS'slargest RHC transmission customer.

NYNEX - Like BellSouth, largely a Northern Telecom shop for COswitching, but AT&T's third-largest RHC transmissioncustomer; will move increasingly to Ericsson for COswitching; is very worried about AT&T's Tariff 12; wantsBell Labs-type relationships with largest suppliers, especiallyNorthem Telecom.

Pacific Telesis - Always a renegade. Pacific Telesis has no specialregard for AT&T; increasing purchases from NorthernTelecom; will not standardize on AT&T for fiber terminals.

Southwestern Bell - Remains an AT&T ally.

US Wect - Strong, independent identity; has used new AT&T-NSFeature Interactive Verification Environment and is veryimpressed; AT&T's largest RHC microwave customer;however, US West dislikes AT&T intensely and will moveagainst the company at the first opportunity.

ATTTAS CUSTOMER

ATTTAS 8T'PPLIEB

27 @ 19SS by Futune Think, fnc.

28 O l98B by Future Think, Inc.

When I asked Sean White whatmakes The Telecom StrategtLetter successful, he respondedcandidly, nYou know, to tellyou thetruth, I haae no idea.' Wel[ Iknow. It's the same as what makesNorthern Business Informationsuccessful - the people are firstclass and haae a deep commitment tosnue the industry that is their home

The People Behind The Telecom Strateglt Letter

Bill Rich recendy replaced Francis Mclnerney, NorthernBusiness Information co-founder, as editor of The TelecomStrategt Letter. Francis has more time now for new productdevelopment. A seasoned analyst, Bill spends much of his timeworking with other analysts to help them focus their thinking andhone their views for TSL. T,Str articles are prepared by mostNorthern Business Information analysts as part of the first phaseofeach new research project.

Other Northern Business fnformation Products

All Northern Business Information products are for thetelecommunications industry. In addition to its flagshipmonthly, Tlw Telecom Strategt Letter, Northern BusinessInformation offers Dossier: Continuous Information, a family ofannual research services including: Prioate Telecom Netunrlcs,Telecom Sentice Markets, World Telecom Marlcets, Public TelecomNetunrles and Canadian Telecom Marlcpts. Dossier servicesincludes reports, databases in both paper and electronic form,newsletters, inquiry services, client briefings and indices. Eachservice costs $22,500 per year, except Canadian Telecom Marketswhich is $13,500.

Northern Business Information also offers standalonereports such as Centrer Market Opportunities: 1988 Editian,Transmissinn Equipment Market: 1988 Editbn, Central OffrceEquipmcnt Market, and IBM Telecom: A Strategic Analysis.Reports are typically $1,995.

For Additional Information aboutThe Telecom Strategy Letter Contact:

Northern Business Information/DataproP.O. Box 1051New York, NY 10008

2t2/732-0775 Fax: 2L21233-6233

L Telecom - short for telecommunications2. RHC - Regional Holding Company. Created as Part of the AT&T

breakup, the seven RHCs operate the local telephone companiesthroughout the U.S.

3. P"IT - Post, Telephone & Telegraph. Each European country has aPTT, typically either a division of the govemment or governmentcontrolled.

4. NTT - TheJapanese telephone company.5. Northern Telecom's customers include all the RHCs as well as many other

telephone companies around the world. Bellcore is the RHCs' sharedresearch and development company created during the AT&T breakup.

6. CO - central office, meaning telephone company public networkswitches.

REVIEW

People don't just become inooloed inEDI. They belieoe in EDI. AndEDI, spread the word! isfulfillingthe promise of its name

According lo Bob Pa1ne, Partner atEDI, spread the word!, somecompanies report saoings oJ as muchas $1-$2 pr piece oJ papnreplaced, plus a reduction in theirfixed costs

If Stou're ready to use EDI, ltou needtrading partntrs who also use EDI.The EDI Yellout Pages is uheretofind'an. I canjust see thosepurchasing agents sitting therereading EDI Yellout Pages anddiscoaering that some of thecompanies they do business with areready to connect with EDI - itmust be the same as in the early daysof the telephone uhen one persondiscoaned thal someone they wantedto call also had a phone - Eureka!

EDI, spread the word! also otfns abibliography, ctipping snaice andlibrary on EDI. Articles on EDIappeir in the leading business andcomputn indus trlt publications, andothn intnesting places - Journalof Commerce and Cornrnercial,Journal of Cash Management,Sh;pp;ng Dtgest, Modern Paint8 Coatings, ModentPurchasing, MaterialManagement €l D;stibutbn,and. . . . You get the idea.EDI, spread, the word! also getsgreat press mention. For example,recently in Business Week

EDI Yellow PogesEDl, spreod the word!

Electronic data interchange (EDI) promises to reduce thepaperwork of placing orders, shipping and billing, along with theerrors introduced by the data entry at each end of thetransaction, not to mention improved relationships withcustomers through better control of this critical interface.

With EDI, the data defining an order are encoded in astandard way and transmitted direcdy from the computer of thebuyer to the computer of the seller. The shipping order andinvoice goes back in the same way - computer to computer. Nopaper! No data entry!

What The World Needed Was an EDI Book -Sorta Like a Phone Book, but . . .

The EDI Yellout Pages is much more th:rn a book in which tolook up phone or network numbers of companies with whom youmight wish to do business electronically, although it is that also.It is a place to learn about EDI, EDI vendors and the productsand services they provide. It is a place to assess the growth of theEDI industry. It is a place to identify companies that areimplementing EDI. It is a place to feel the enthusiasm that EDI,spread the word! has for its role in helping create this importantnew way of doing business without a single piece of paperchanging hands. There's even an EDI glossary and a calendar.All that for $22.45.

Poges of Press Articles About EDIApril{986 - Augusf {988Source: EDl, spreod the word!

Number of EDIRelated Pe9a8 Found.+80

110

,1OO

300

320

2AO

210

200

160

r20

60

10

29 @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

30 O 19BB by Future Think, Inc.

Thtre's one Jree listing pn dioisionof a companlt (EDI usn). EDIsoftware, consulting and networkcompanies are charged $96. Thegrowth in listings refluts the growthin EDI actioity. The new editionincludu European listings ina.ddition to U.S. ard Canadian.EDI Yellout Pag"s has also grounin circulatiof, - 5,000 thefirstedition, 10,000 the second and thethird is just out. Seanal tradeassociations gioe it to new mmtbtrs;EDI training companies purchase itfor stu.dents, and, some EDI snoicesupplirs are pnsonalizing EDIYellow Pages for distribution totheir clients and, prospects

ft's one of those classicalinform at io n bus ine s s s t ar t -up sthat are mltfaooritc stories(I'm collecting thtmfor a book)

Bob and Anna Lee are husband andwife now, but not so when thrystarted EDI, spreod the word!I wondn what we can learnfrom that. . .

Growth in the Number ol Listings in EDlYellow PogesSource: EDl, spreod fhe word!

Merch t98E

In the Beginning

There was a need understood by * expert in the freld. First, itwas served by a consulting practice. Then the need for-publishedinformation became clear to this industry guru long before anyone else saw it or was interested. The need was so great that,

The People Behind the Pages

championing, also. He is one of the EDI industry's leading_consrr-ltants.-His daily fare is EDI vendor strategies and EDIuser implementations. Prior to starting EDI, spread thc word!,Bob wai with GE Information Services as Senior EDI Consultant- he's been in EDI since before it was called EDI.

For More Information AboutEDI Yellout Pages Contact:

EDI, spread the word!13805 Wooded Creek Drive, Suite 100Dallas, TX 752+4-475+

214/243-3456

PROFITE

Es an Amnican dream - thesuc c es sful famiQ - owned busines s.

Jnry Hutcheson (pop) broughttopnotch technical and marketexpntis e in stmiconductorm anufac turi ng equi pme nt.G. Dan Hutcheson (son) broughteconomic and business pnspectiaes.Lynda Hutcheson (mom) broughtadministratioe ability. A CPAdaughtn does theyear end books.But this old-fashioned idea has aacry modan twist - they sellinformation to companies whomanufacture equipnent used inmaking stmiconductors, which arethefundamental building blocks ofinformation technologlt, which isenabling the explosion of theinformation age. Thanks

Eac h saniconduc tor equipmentmanufaeturn is lika i t;itteFmari S.r4. - it builds a oary-high-pnformance machine for a fewcustomers. Typically it sells 200pieces of equipment ptryear,grosses $11 million in sales andhas 120 tmployes

Only 50 are abooe fi25 million insemiconduc tor equipment sales.Only 88 are abooe $10 million.How many companies haoe youknown belou fi10M who buy muchmarket information? The founderknows the business cold and at thatsize lhe uhole compan! can be onyclose to its customers. A sanitycheck would be nice, but isfrequently considred too costly.VLSI Research is in a toughmarket. But in it they are - othnshaae tried, and most appear to haoefaded away

VLSI Reseqrch, Inc.

It's as unlikely a business as you'll ever find. But there theyare - firrnly rooted in a market that most would say is much toofragmented, and populated by companies much too small tosupport an eighteen-person market research firm. But suppoftthem it has since L975 - first as a one-m:Ln technical consultingbusiness started byJetty Hutcheson, a veteran of early SiliconValley institutions such as Motorola, Fairchild and Signetics. In1979 Dan joined to apply his knowledge of economics to themarket for semiconductor equipment, an interest that had beenforeshadowed by his earlier analysis of electronics as a market forgold. The plan was to publish information for the companiesthat had beenJerry's clients for years. In 1980 they launchedThe VLSI Manufactuing Outlnk, a subscription service forsemiconductor equipment mamrfacturers.

They have fared well. Sales for the year endingSeptember 30 will be a litde over a million. Through the turmoilof the semiconductor industry, even the 1985 downturn, theyhave given employee bonuses. They have sunived competitorswho have never quite gotten hold of VLSI Research's primarymarket - semiconductor equipment manufacturers.

Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers

Semiconductor Equipment Manufacturers design and build theequipment used in the manufacturing of semiconductors -equipment like projection aligners, E-beam direct-write systems,probers, steppers, diffusion furnaces and ion implanters. Thenearly 600 semiconductor equipment manufacturers include suchcompanies as Perkin-Elmer, Hitachi, LAM Research, Nikon,Megatest, Kulicke & Soffa, and Teradyne.

Semiconduclor Equipmenl Monufocturers

General SignalM

Perkln Elmers212.6 M

Nikon$2/f2.3 M

Advantettt206.2 M

Compenle!$1o M to $25 M

Applled Mate.lsla$174./f M

OtherCompanlerOwr $25 M

CompanieSUnder $tO M

6OO Companies . $5.4 Billion in 1987

3 l O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

32 O 198S by Future Think, Inc.

Questor S2snrcL' compisc 35% oJ thcscmiconductor cquipmal mnrkt. Quts torS2stcms arcfurilur vgnmud by VLSIRcscarch into ncarlt 100 cquipmmt t2pcs.2 2 5 companie s participatc

Wqfcr Fabication Equipmmt is 50% ofthc scmicondu.ctor cquipmnt marlvt. 215companics scmc nccds in ncarl2 60 dffirmtVLSI Rc scarch-idmtified cquipmmt t2pcs

11 7o of thc mnrlvt. Ncarl| 35 cquipmcntEpcs. 140 companies

It's l;ks sating that copins,computers and staplns are thesame market because they are allfound in ffices

VLSI Rcsearch's information produrts arcpacked with tcchnical undtrstnnding

VLSI Rcscarch proJilcs 200 cquipmtntsegrunts and lhc tcchnologt and. compctitorswithin each

VLSI' s forccasts for thc sanicondurtorindaslry arcfrom tlu po;nt of aicw ofequipmcnt supplicrs. They publish thcirforccasting rccord. . . . I'm imprcsvd!

VLSI docs not prouifu dttailed i4formationon scmicondutor companics as il isaaailabh clscwlurc. Amorrg what the2 daffir a dnnbase of tlu 1500fab lincsopcrahd b2 scmicondrctor companics

VLSI Research prcscnts oiginal rcscarchon thc cconomics of sanicondu.ctormnnufactuing

VLSI Reuarch's annual suruclt ofpurc has cr s rab s scmicon duc torcquipmmt supplicrs

Few of these companies compete head-to-head. Segmentsencompass widely diverse technologies including electronic,mechanical, optical, thermal and plasma (vacuum). VLSIResearch divides the market into three major segments:

rz Questor Systemsl' - Design Affirmation Systems (e.g. CADinterface tools), CIM Systems (e.g. global CAM), ProcessDiagnostics (e. g. mask inspection), Automated Test Systems(e.g. logic ATE) and Materials Handling (e.g. IC handlers &laser repair).

/ Wafer Fabrication Equipment2' - Microlithography (e.g.mask making equipment), Diffusion/Oxidation (e. g. diffrrsionfurnaces), Ion Implantation (e.g. high energy), Deposition(e.g. chemical vapor deposition), Etching & Cleaning (".g. dryetching and cleaning) and Wafer Manufacturing (e.9. crystalgrowing furnaces).

z Assembly Equipment3' - Dicing (e.g. sawing), Bonding andInspection (e.9. die bonding) and Packaging (e.9. mold & seal).

Fragmented? It's much worse than fragmented. Itincludes markets for 200 different types of equipment, with littlemanufacturer overlap, lumped together because they are all usedin fab lines.5'

Information Needs

Needs of semiconductor equipment manufacturersFortunately these disparate businesses have some commoninformation needs -

They need a thorough understanding of present and futuresemiconductor manufacturing technology - both that whichthey supply and all the adjacent technologies.

They need to know aborrt each other - some are competitors,some are co-creators of the next wave of semiconductormanufacturing technology.

They need to know about their common customer - thatseemingly impossible to predict semiconductor industry. Theyneed to forecast period.s ofexpansion and contraction ofequipment purchases. *'

They need information about specific semiconductorcompanies from the point of view of a company selling to them.Besides a competitive profile and a supplier-rclationship profile,they need detailed information aborrt present and futuresemiconductor fab lines.

They need to understand the economic foundation forsemiconductor equipment purchases by semiconductorcompanies.

They need to know how their customers perceive them uiz-a-aiztheir competitors, from an objective source.

VLSI Research gets excellentreoiews for its und,nstandableexplanalions of a market that isastonishingly complex in both itsfoundalions - technology andeconomics. The appeal is to boththe expnt and the newcomn. Nowondn their competitors haoe foundthem difficult to displace

They usually lose a prospectioeclienl only when the need is forbro adn - b as ed s nnico nd,uc torindustry information without thespecific focus on equipment

S emi c o nduc t or eq uipm entmanufacturrs do about $750K inbusiness peryar uith VLSIResearc h, stmiconductormanufacturrs anothn fi200K andfinancial companies 850K. Nextyear Dan thinks goonnments'business will be 2% oJ total.

In this chart each ey (VLSIResearch) watches and ana[tzes onesegment of the industry for anothnwhich payfor the snaice. Enjo/

S nni c o nduc tor equi pm entmanufacturing could easily beregarded as a nitical nationalr6s0urce

60%-707o of VLSI Research'sbusiness is now in publishedinformation products, up from20%-30% in 1982 and 0% inI 979. The transition-fromconsulting to publishinghas been successful

A reaiew oJ The VLSIManufactuing Outlookannual seroice will appear inFuture Thinker soon

Of course, semiconductor equipment manufacturers havesome of this knowledge and can gather much of the restthemselves. But at what cost? And is it objective? Andavailable year after year from a consistent source? The typicalequipment manufacturer plays 'bet your company' on its abilityto call the next step-function in semiconductor manufacturingtechnology and create the right product to fill a niche within it.They get one chance. Good market information is basic.

Semiconductor companies and investors buy tooSemiconductor m:rnufacturers like the user penceptions, themanufacturing technology trends and the information abouttheir key suppliers. fnvestors who need very specific informationabout equipment manufactuners are also clients.

VLSI Regeorch't Revenue Sourcet

Government organizations are a small but growing marketfor VLSI Research. For example, MITI'' and the U.S.Department of Commerce have recently become interested inVLSI Research's economic models.

The Information Products

The hub product is The VLSI Manufactuing Outlook, an annualservice priced at $14,750 the first year and $11,500 in subse-quent years. With over 60 subscribers (over 100 includingmultiple copies to the same company), it is the largest revenuesource. It includes three large binders of initial material,qrrarterly updates, The VLSI Industry Naosletter, unlimitedinquiry privileges, and a 30% discount on consulting.

The VLSI Industry Neutsletter ($395/year) and telephoneconsrrltation ($125-$14O/hour) are available ala carte. Otherproducts include: t}:re Worldutide Wqfer Fab Database on diskette( $2, 000/year), the semi- annu al VLS I Manufoctuing Forecast($25), the VLSI Manufactuing Industry Telephone Directory(first year, $500. ttpdates, $150), use of the VLSI Researchlibrary, and an occasional report, e.g. Cleaning Systems ($3,950).

33 @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

10 @ tggg by Future Think, Inc.

For Additional Information aboutS ofi utare Mana.gement S trategie s S eruice C ontact :

Gartner Group56 Top Gallant RoadStamford, CT 06904-22L2

203t964-0096 Fax: 203/324-7901Telex: 643 528

1. DB2 - IBM's database manager. Fint shipped in 1984, DB2 is now thedatabase manager of choice for large IBM installations according toGartner Group.

2. SAA - Systems Application Architecturc. According to Gartner, SAAwas introduced by IBM alr a means to softwar€ portability and skillleverage. It is a set of interfaces and protocols that will evolve into whatIBM hopes is a rrniversal computing architecture.

3. IMS - Information Management System. According to Gartner, IMS isnow IBM's strategic subsystem for only very high-speed database/data-communications applications. DB2 is to be used in normal databaseapplications. IMS will continue to be fiound for some time in OLTPapplications where speed is sacred.

4. Database strategy versus SQL strategy - A database is a specific programproduct strateg'y, not suitable for the new age of software in whichinterfaces are sacred, not particular programs. SQL is an interface. Sodesign to the language, SQL, not a particular database program thatimplements it.

5. FUD - Fear, IJncertainty and Doubt. We all have experienced it. Butsome would say that IBM has mastered using FUD to its advantagearound the shops of large computer users. When FUD is rampant, thearms of IBM look better and better.

6. Big Five - The Big Five non-IBM software companies: ADR, CCA,Cincom, Culinet and Software AG.

7. Big Seven - Big Five plus Oracle and RTI.8. SQL - Stmctured Query Langrage . According to Gartner, SQL is a

relational data language that provides a consistent, English keyword-oriented set of facilities for query, data definition, data manipulation anddata control. SQL is rather user vicious (a Braudeism), and its mostfruitful position is as a protocol for software-to-software connectivity,rather than for human-to-software access.

9. OLTP - Online Transaction Processing. According to Gartner, OLTPis one of the fastest-growing segments of the computer industry, showing acompound annual growth rate of more than 30 percent. Transactionprocessing distributes data and puts it online where it can be instantlyupdated to reflect changes as they occur.

10. Repository - According to Gartner, the Repository is an IBM initiativeconsisting of a DB2 application that o{fers a single point of definition forall enterprise (company-wide) objects. Many hope it will stimulate bothprogram and installation management productivity.

11. NCVI - Net Contract Value Increase. The increase in the valrre ofsubscriber contracts. It's the basis for the way service heads and salespeople at Gartner are measured and paid.

12. Okay. I confess. It's my opinion (not necessarily Gartner Group's) thatthe layers of syste m software rumbling around in those big computersremind me of a churning swamp - sometimes even a seething, churningswamp complete with alligators and other swamp varmits. But I do lovethe Cajun cooking - at least the vegetarian part.

Bclicac it or not, I oncc mnfu a lioing dningsoftwarc to intcrfaccforcign pciplurak toIBM 5/360 opcrating s2sbrns. Yuck!Thnt was about 1973for thosc of 2ou whocount. Of coursc, the world of mainframtsoftwarc has changcd incc thcn. . . . .But not as mtch as wc had. hopcd

34 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Thae is one. But it's more like adoctor's office than a business.WSI Research anioed at thisundnstanding of ilself the usual way- the School of Hard Knocks

My opinion - sales is still toomuch like its consulting businessroots. My recommendation - hirea good D ataquest- sty le salespcr sonwith an incentioe plan like GartnerGroup. My guess - 207o morebusiness eachyear

VLSI has attracted some goodpeople. Debra Matsuhiro started atVLSI Research when she was astudent in business at SanJoseState. Now she is IndustrltResearch Managn. This photoshows Jmy, Debra, Lany Lee andRobtrt Frizzell in a datadisctepancy meeting. Thesemeetings are held when thne isc o nfl i c t b e t w e e n inform ati o n fr omdiffaent sources. They pick one,aotrage thmt, or whateon else seemsappropriate. Oh, the woes of thedataJiddltr

Jen2 wants to retire someday(10 or so years) and Dan uants anew sports car eoil! now and then(the company just bought him a newPorsche 944)

I can identif'1t uith that

The Organization

Jerry is CEO. Dan is Pnesident. Lynda is Vice President ofAdministration. The titles don't mean much. Jeol'and Dan

handles the rest of sales, PR and marketing. There are noadditional staff dedicated to sales. They get lots of pressmention. That brings the leads - even fromJapan and Europe(no agents). Je.ry'oi Dan follow up. It's hard to mix sales withresearch and consulting, but they have certainly been successfiil.

VLSN Reseorch ol Work

The Future

equipment indrrstry's best analysts.Now they are back to doing what they do best and loving

it. The shot at expansion helped clarify their goals. Rich mighthave been nice but at what cost? The goals of VLSI Researchare now clear - to serve the industry that supports it, to keepAmerica's semiconductor equipment industry the best, to mn agood "doctor's olfice" family business, to take care of itsemployees and to have fun - not necessarily in that order.

For Additional Information aboutVLSI Research, fnc.

VLSI Research, Inc.1754 Technology Drive, Suite 117SanJose, CA 95110

408/289-9983 Fax:408/437-0608'Qurslor' is dtriacdfrom tlu word'Quacstor' which uas an atuiant Ronwn

judgc or fficial concencd chicfly withfinancial adnini s trati on

Lots of lurk!

To sct up afab liw lodqt, VLSI Rcuarchsays, talus 8100 million comparcd to ggmillion in 1975

1. Questor Systems - a tenn coined by VLSI Research to encompass thosetypes of equipnent used in the design, verification, handling, inspectionand testing of integrated circuits - that equipment that makes up thenerve center of a factory. Questor Systems are defined by VLSI Researchas portions of global factory networks whose purpose is to collect andpipeline data for administrative and conuol purposes. Questor Systemsconsist of host computer, small networks, test equipment, inspectionequipment and miscellaneous process monitors.

2. Wafer Fabrication Eqrripment, according to VLSI Research, consists of allthose types of equipment used in making and processing raw wafers informing the finished chips, whether they be discrctes or integrated circuits.

3. Assembly Equipment, according to VLSI Research, consists of those rypesof equipment used to separate the completed wafer into its dice and toassemble each die into its own package.

4. Usually even the semiconductor companies cannot predict their owncapital equipment buying plans. VLSI Research gives us the reason -new semiconductor capital equipment purchases are proportional to therate of change of the semiconductor market. Try predicting that!

5. Fab line - semiconductor wafer fabrication line - An assembly line forsemiconductor devices. Each line produces a particular type of device anduses a different set of eqrripment depending, in part, on the semiconductordevice being manufactrrred.

6. MITI -Japan's Ministry of fnternational Trade and Industry. If there issuch a thing asJapan, Inc., MITI is the Board of Directors.

35 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

Betyou didn't know thathypnc hronic managcrs createthefuture

Fulure Thought

haoe to catch up with. They are detmnined to alwals be pace-settcrs. Detnmined to be ahead of the times, they lioe on thecutt;ng edge, breathing the thin air of a high speed life.'

- The Managmtcnt of ChangeA Newslettn fu F. Denn BarettM anagnnent C onc e p t s L imit ed31 Pine Ridge DrioeScarborough, (Toronto), Ontario

MIM 2X6 Canada

416/264-4361

36 @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

More Good News

The good neus - when completed,eaen our first Companizs directorywill be much more complete than uehad hoped. The bod neus - uemust impose onyour patience. Wehad planned late Septembr. LooksIike EarQ Nooembn. RunrmbnFuture Thinker subsnibrs get theFirst Editionfree. In FutureThinker #1, I estimated that thnewere 150 companies in the U.S.(pcrhaps anothcr 150 outside theU. S. ) proaiding repnrts, snninars,conferences, planning snoices,information s naices, databases,multiclient s tudies, directories,newslettns and other forms of non-ada n tis ing s po ns ored informat io nfor aendors and usns in thec omput tr, te lec ommunic atio ns,electronics and ffice productsindustries. Since we haoe onified150 of these companies already, it isapparent that my original estimateuas low. How low? At ourpresent rate of new finds, thne couldbe another 100 companies

New since last issue arestaned (*)

See Future Thinker #l

Several readers have asked for more information aboutcompanies listed here and for our list of companies who have notyet agreed to cooperate. Subscribers to Future Thinker willreceive both in the lst Edition of Future Think Companies, ourdirectory of market information publishing companies in thecomputer, telecommunications, electronics and oflice productsindustries. It will be available soon. Our major challenge withits production is that our research sta{f has recently been loadedwith calls from market information publishers who had beeneither unknown to us, or challenging to locate. Now they arefrnding us and we are grateful. Several Future Thinkersubscribers have also been very helpful in providing us with thenames and complete address of companies not on this list, manyof whom we had not known or had not been able to locate.

Our Apologies

We apologize to DATEK and Parks Associates - we publishedinconect phone numbers in the last issue - at least we had thecity and state correct.

Our Thanks

Every day a few more market information publishers becomepositive about Future Think's plan. And so they should. I seeour role as being an advocate for excellence in marketinformation publishing. Of the 150 market informationpublishing companies that we have contacted, 88 have agreedto cooperate with Future Thinker reviews. They are:

I Able CommunicationsMilpitas, CA

z AdscopeGoldendale, WA

t/ AIM Consulting & Publications, Inc.Natick. MA

z Architecture Technology CorporationMinneapolis, MN

/ Associated Research ServicesDallas. TX 2l+/644-1733

* R. R. Bowker (Abstracting & Indexing Division)New York. NY 212/645-9700

408t945-t484

509t773-370r

508/653-1622

6l 2/935-2035See Future Thinket this issue

37 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

* Brooktree CorporationSan Diego, CA 6191452-7580

rz Business Communications Co. Inc.Norwalk, CT 203/853-4266

rz Business Technology ResearchWellesley Hills, MA 6171237-3lll

rz Broadview AssociatesFt Ire, NJ 201/+61-7929

* CAD/CAM Publishing, Inc.San Diego, CA 619/488-0533

rz California Technology Stock IrtterSan Francisco, CA +151982-0125

/ Camarro ResearchFairfield, CT 203/255-4100

* Cambridge CommunicationsArlington, MA 61716+3-5700

* Cambridge Report on SUPERCONDUCTMTY, TheCambridge, MA 617l+9+-6506

See Future Thinker next issue tl CAP fnternational. Inc.Norwell, MA 6171982-9500

See Future Thinker next issue ,/ CASE Research CorporationBellevue, WA 206/453-9900

,/ CCMI/McGraw-HillRamsey, NJ 201/825-3311

/ CIMI CorporationHaddonfield, NJ 609/354-1088

* Communications Trends. Inc.Larchmont. NY 914/B33-0600

z Computer Industry AlmanacDallas, TX 21+/231-8735

z Computer IntelligenceLaJofla, CA 619/450-1667

z Computer ShoptalkMillburn, NJ 201/376-818I

* CorpTechWellesley Hills, MA 617/237-2001

rz Creative Strategies Research InternationalSanta Clara. CA 4081245-4750

See Future Thinlczr #l

O See Future Tnrn,terthis issue

See Future Thinkzr #l

See also Langley Publications

/ DataproDelran, NJ

z DataquestSanJose, CA

/ DATEK Information ServicesNewtonville , MA

* Digital Consulting, Inc.Andover, MA

,/ DISK/TREND,Inc.Mountain View, CA

z Diversified Data ResourcesFalls Church, VA

* DM Data, Inc.Scottsdale, AZ

tl EDl, spread the word!Dallas, TX

t/ EDI StrategiesMarietta. GA

609t764-0100

408/437-8000

617 /893-9130

508/470-3880

4t5l96t-6209

703t237-0682

602/945-9620

214t243-3456

404/973-+683

38 @ tggg by Future Think, Inc.

See Future Thinl,tr #I

See Future Ttin&er next issue

See Future Thinlter #2

See Future Thinlur #2

See Future Thinlezr #2 & this issue

See Future Tninter next issue

See Future Thinlur #2

See Future Thkler #2 & this issue

See Future Thinler this issue

rz EDventure Holdings, Inc../Release 1.1New York, NY

rz Electronic Trend PublicationsSaratoga, CA

r/ ElectronicastSan Mateo, CA

/ FIND/SVPNew York, NY

/ Focus Research SystemsWest Hartford, CT

r/ Forrester ResearchCambridge, MA

/ Frost & SullivanNew York, NY

,/ Future ComputingDallas, TX

/ Future Technology SurveysMadison. GA

,/ Gartner GroupStamford, CT

* Industry Market Reports, Inc.Los Altos, CA

z InfoneticsSanta Clara. CA

z Information Gatekeeper, Inc.Boston, MA

rz InputMountain View, CA

rz In-StatScottsdale, AZ

/ Institute for Graphics CommunicationsBoston, MA

* Institute for the FutureMenlo Park. CA

New Canaan, CT

International Technology GroupLos Altos, CA

Intertec Publishin g Corporationc/o Computer Graphics ReviewSudbury, MA

* Jupiter Communications CompanyNew York, NY

lntegrated Circuit Engineering CorporationScottsdale . AZ 602/998'9780

*

2r2t758-3434

408t996-7+t6

415/572-1800

2r2/645-+500

203t56r-1047

617 t+97-7090

2121233-1080

2r+1437-2400

+04ts42-9638

203/964-0096

4t5t94r-6679

408t746-2500

61 7/738-8088

415/961-3300

602/860-8s1s

617 t267-9425

415t854-6632

2r2/64s-2066

203/966-2525

+r5t94t-2433

508t+43-467 |

2r2/94r-9252

Intelligent Systems AnalystNew York, NY

/ International Data Group,CD ROM Continuous Information ServicePeterborough, NH 603/924-947 |

ru International Planning Information, Inc.Redlands, CA 415/364-9040

/ Intemational Resource Development, Inc.

*

*

Langley Publications, Inc./ CD Data ReportFalls Church. VA 703/241-2131

I-edgeway Group, TheLexington, MA

See Future Thinlezr #2

6l 7/862-8500

See Future Thinler #2

See Future Thinleer next issue

See Future Thinlur #2

* Magnetic Press, Inc.New York, NY 2l2l2l9-2831

* Market Information Center, Inc., TheMarlborough, MA 617/460-0880

t Market Intelligence Research Co.Mountain View, CA 415/961-9000

See Future Thi*cr #l z National Software Testing LaboratoriesPhiladelphia, PA 215/87B-9300

z Neal Nelson & AssociatesChicago,Il 3121332-32+2

See Future Thmjbr next issue / Newton-Evans Research CompanyEllicott City, MD 301/465-7316

See Future Thinker #1 & this issue z Northem Business Information/DataproNew York, NY 2121732-0775

See Future Thinkcr this issue / Parks AssociatesDallas, TX 2l+1392-9855

See Future Thinlczt #2 t patricia Seybold's Office Computing GroupBoston, MA 61717+2-5200

t, P .C. I-etterRedwood City, CA +151592-9192

t Probr- ResearchCedar Knolls, NJ 201-285-1500

See Future Thinker this issue

* Schwartz Associates, TheMountain View, CA

' / S.E.A. I .Madison, GA

z Sentry Market ResearchWestborough, MA

z SoftoktterCambridge, MA

z StoreBoardDallas, TX

/ Srrmmit StrategiesBoston, MA

rz Technology Financial ServicesChelmsford, MA

* Technology News of ArnericaNew York. NY

* Theta CorporationMiddlefield, CT

/ Venturr EconomicsWellesley Hills, MA

r/ VLSI ResearchSanJose, CA

t The Winters GroupRochester. NY

z Wohl AssociatesBala Cynwyd, PA

z Workstation LabsDallas, TX

r Yankee Group, TheBoston. MA

* Zech Tech InternationalSan Mateo. CA

See Future Thinlur this issue

See Future 7nm&er next issue

4r5t965-+561

+04/342-9638

617 t366-203r

6t7 /868-0t57

2r+t231-5964

617 /266-9050

617 /458-397 4

2r2t334-9750

203/349-t054

617 /431-8t00

40B/289-9983

7 16t546-7480

2t5/667-48+2

214/644-r733

617 /367 -1000

4r5/578-9520

39 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

40 @ tggg by Futurc Think, Inc.

NEW

*fi51 billion in 1987 - that's a lotof scroice and support. This welldone report is also aoailable as apart of a Ledgewal annual seroice

*Directory of largest 2,000 high-techmanufacturns with stats, peopleand indices by city and product

Who adontises what and whne inhigh-tech. hintout - 501companies, their products and mediamix. See Future Thinker #1

The book used in the confnence.Standalone, it is an entntaining andinformatiae picturebook about thefuture of software

Fascinating and eay to read, theinsights are not limited to theMacintosh world. It's a oiew of apiece of thefuture

Opinions from Public UtilitltOlficials in 32 states - their rolein RBOCs' information snoicesinitiatiaes

The charts help in undastandingthis complex market with its many

facetedfacets - excellent insightsinto segments

Measures whtre we are in readinessfor, and in adopting CASE(C omput n -As si s ted Soft w areEnginening) techno logt.Also note - CASE Conference,Nouember 2-4, Montrey, CA

*

*

*

Reporfs ond ....{.

Bellevue, WAPages: 192Exhibits: 124

Trends and Forecast of the Customer Sentice IndustryThe Ledgeway GroupLexington, MA 6t7/862-8500Pages: 79 Price: $2,500Erhibits: 29 Date: September 19BB

The CorpTech 2000 Marketing Guide I9B8CorpTechWellesley Hills, MA 617/237-2001Pages:397 Price: $95Exhibits: none Date: September 1988

Adscopc 501Adscope, Inc.Goldendale, WA 509/773-3701Pages: 152 Price: $225Exhibits: none Date: Augrrst 19BB

Software Futures: An Executiae FontmDigital Consulting, fnc.Andover, MA 508/470-3880Pages:402 Price: $200Exhibits: 314 Date: August 1988

AI on the MacintoshIntelligent Systems AnalystNew York, NY 212/645-2066Pages:217 Pr ice: $154Erhibits: 52 Date: August 1988

* RBOC Entry into Information Services:A Survey of Public Utility Commissioners

Jupiter Communications C ompanyNew York, NY 212/941-9252Pages:72 Price: $595Exhibits: 17 Date: August 19BB

* The Midrange Parallel Processing MarketTechnologT Financial Services, Inc.Westford, MA 508/692-2290Pages: 205 Price: $1,695Exhibits: 67 Date: August 19BB

* nu CASE ExpericnceAnnual CASE Survey 1988

CASE Research Corporation206/453-9900Price: $150Date: June 1988

* Computer hdustry Adurtising I Marketing Forecast,1988-r989

Communications Trends, Inc.Larchmont, IfY 9V/833-0600

U.S. computa companies spentfi2 billion worlduide for adoertisingin 1987. Analysis, forecasts andtop 105 odocrtisn profiles

1,747 responses from 9,600software managns trom SortutareMagazine's database. Great data.Great presentation. Excellent oalue

A tutorial slrategic look at expntsJstnns, PCs, mainframes andknowledge. Usn oriented. Usefuldirectory of oendors

* 1988 Softuare Market SunteySentry Market ResearchWestborough,MA 6t71366-203tPages: 253Erhibits: 186

Price: $397Date: April 1988

* Expert Systems in a Mainframe EnvironmentIntelligent Systems AnalystNew York, NYand

21216+5-2066

The Schwartz AssociatesMountain View, CA 415/965-4561

Pages: 135E*tribits: 25

Pages: 100Exhibits:3

Price: $995Date: April 1988

Price: $197Date: March 1988

" What should I, an MIS managcr,do with Digital-Audio Tape(D A 7')- b as ed s torage deo ices ? nThis is the answ'n

Based on intnaiews uith printncompanies and third-party sraiceorganizations, this repnrt lonks atsnoice Jor non-impact printas

This exhaustia ely t horoughmulticlient stu.dy forecasts a$2.3 billion dollar marketforIVIMICs by 1997

A t t ent ion marlet info rmat io npubl;shing compnies! If you hnae sntus an itcm that wc should haac mmtioned,pleasc7ell. Last monlh thtc was ont itcmscut to us that wc hauc still not rccciaed.lt'c're trying to kccp track. And Iapologizc - uc haac bcm bchindin ourcorrcspondtnce. Wc'rc sdfcing from ncwcompan! slmdromc. It will pass

*

New York, NYPages: 35Erhibits:6

2r2/2r9-283rPrice: $200Date: February 19BB

Price: $595Fall 1987

* Data Applications of DAT TechnologltMagnetic Press, Inc.

Laser Printer Service Opportunities & PlayersTechnology Financial Services, Inc.Westford, MA 508/692-2290andUlsch & Ulsch Associates,Pages: 138

Inc.

Exhibits: 16 Date:

* Microunw Monolithic Integrated Circait ForecastElectroniCastSan Mateo, CA +151572-t800Pages: 1,329 (3 vol.) Price: $18,000Exhibits: 563 Date: 1987

l. The rrports, directories, databases, multiclient studies and conferencenotes selected for this section are newly released items that I think areworthy of your consideration. In most cases I have read the item. Some Ihave only weighed and scanned. A review may or may not be in a futureFuture ?]f, in,ter issue.

All the items we can identifu that were published since 1987 are listed inFuture Think Resourrces, our directory of market information products forthe computer, telecommunications, electronics and office productsindustries.

4 l @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

42 @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

TRACKING

Quite a coup!

I worlud with Marty at FutureComp41;nt. He undnstands theneeds of a newly acquired companltin McGraw-Hill as well as how tomanagc the intnface between a littleentrepreneurial companl and a nice,no t - s o - entr epr eneurial, big o ne.This twy specialized knowledge wasacquired through the School of HardKnocks, of course

You did a great job at Dalapro,Jim! We'll miss ltou

C ongratulations, Bruce !

PEOPTE AND COMPANIES

McGraw-Hill in Motion

Northern Business Information acquired byDatapro/McGraw-HillNorthern Business Information has been tracking thetelecommunications industry since 1977. Offering newsletters,repofts, and annual services, Northern's rcputation is first rateamong its subscribers which are who's who in the telecombusiness. Sean White and Francis Mclnerney, Northern'sfounders, are enthusiastic about their new parent company. AndDatapro couldn't be happier or mone ambitious with its newtelecommunications research group. The acquisition ofNorthern was championed in McGraw-Hill by Marty Vttphy,Datapro's Vice President for Vendor Information Services.-

Datapro has long had visions of expanding its offerings forvendors with more analysis-intensive products; and they've justacquired one of the best in the business. (See Future Thinker #lfo{ a Profih of Datapro and a review of a Northen report andthis issrre of Future Thinker for a review of Northern's flagship,Tlu Telecorn Strategt Letter).

Sean and Francis will now spend more of their time inNorthern's research activities and developing new Northernresearch products. With their new resollrces, Nofthern's salesstalf has already been expanded. Mark Yarnoff, Northern's newGeneral Manager, neports to Marty Murphy at Datapro.

Datapro's President moves to bigger challengesJim Murray, Datapro's former President, recendy becameVice President and General Manager of Dodge RegionalInformation Services Division - a $130 million business, awhopper by information business standards. Dodge is theleading information services company in the constructionindustry and the second largest information services company ofany type in McGraw-Hill.

New President at DataproBruce lfolows, who has been with Datapro since 1981, mostrecendy in charge of Datapro's domestic loose-leaf servicebusiness, is the new President of Datapro. He reports to IraIlerenstein, former President of Standard and Poor's and headof McGraw-Hill's Computer and Communications InformationServices Group sinceJuly 1, 1988.

1. It is not our intention to cover news in the market information publishing

business - at least not now - we don't have enough hours in the day.

But sometimes we happen onto something that we can't resist telling you

about. We would welcome calls from our readers giving us items of wide

interest. If we agree, we'll print tsln - after verification, of course.

Thc newslcttcrfor uscrs of publisludmarkarcscarch and information scrviccs in tlucomputcr, lclccommunications, clcctronic sand fficc products industics

Thc dircctor2 of marlvt i4fonnationpublishing companics in thc computcr,tclccommunications, clcctronics and ffi ccproducts induslics

Includts: Future Thinler (12 issues),Future Think Compnies (2 Editions),Future Think Resourca (2 Editions)and Future Think Gunu (2 Editions)

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If you feel talkative, ask to speak to me. I like to speak with our subscribers . . . Portia.

44 O 1988 by Future Think, Inc.

TWO AND FREE Two Fuiure Thinkers per Subscribelond Free Future Think Componies

Don't miss the Future!(Thinker, that is.)For only $395/1ear we'll prooide abig boost - tuo copies of eachpacked monthly Future Thinkerissue arulourfirst directory ofmarket research companies for beingan early subscribn

Future Thinker subscribers receive free the $195 First Edition ofFuture Think Companies, our directory of market informationpublishing companies in the computer, telecommunications,electronics and oflice products industries. It's indexed bysubject, and we think you'll frnd it very useful.

Subscribers will also receive two copies of every FutureThinker issue. We hope you'll like it so much you will pass italong to someone else who may benefit. Thanks.

A MugYou askedfor it! - It's been awhile since I had a picture mode sothis will haoe to do for now. Thtref was, future thinking no doubt.Let's see thal was about the timeAlan Turing published an article on" Intelligent Mac hincry' w hic hlaunched the field of artificialintelligence, andjust before IBMintroduced the 604 electroniccalculator, the EDSAC becameopnational at Cambridge andJohnoon Neumann built thefirst stored-program computn - that'sprobabfu what was onmy mind

Ii:13r:.1rli1r:

:, Inc. Copyright @ 1988 by Future Think, Inc. All r ights:'reproduc6d, s-Fd in.a retfieval systenl,. or transmitte{ in-Lanibal or otherwise; without the prior written pernrission ofical data contained herein have 6een obtained-fronl sorrrcesway warranted by us as to accuracy or completeness. Weor our opinions.

'Future Think, In6., its affi l iates, and any

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