moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 1

ExpandingMoore’s LawThe Exponential Opportunity

Fall 2002 Update

Intel around the world

UNITED STATES AND CANADAIntel CorporationRobert Noyce Building2200 Mission College BoulevardP.O. Box 58119Santa Clara, CA 95052-8119USAPhone: (800) 628-8686

EUROPEIntel Corporation (UK) Ltd.Pipers WaySwindonWiltshire SN3 1RJUKPhone:England (44) 1793 403 000Germany (49) 89 99143 0France (33) 1 4571 7171Italy (39) 2 575 441Israel (972) 2 589 7111Netherlands (31) 10 286 6111Sweden (46) 8 705 5600

ASIA-PACIFICIntel Semiconductor Ltd.32/F Two Pacific Place88 Queensway, CentralHong Kong, SARPhone: (852) 2844 4555

JAPANIntel Kabushiki KaishaP.O. Box 115 Tsukuba-gakuen5-6 Tokodai, Tsukuba-shiIbaraki-ken 305JapanPhone: (81) 298 47 8522

SOUTH AMERICAIntel Semicondutores do BrazilRue Florida, 1703-2 and CJ22CEP 04565-001 Sao Paulo-SPBrazilPhone: (55) 11 5505 2296

For more informationTo learn more about Intel Corporation,visit our site on the World Wide Web atwww.intel.com

Copyright © 2002 Intel Corporation. All rights reserved.Printed in the USA 0902/10K/ASI/CS Product number: TL_002*Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others .

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 2

Moore’s Vision

To see a world in a grain of sand.. .

—Wil l iam Blake

Moore’s LawMeans More Performance

Processing power, measured in Millions ofInstructions per Second (MIPS) has risenbecause of increased transistor counts.

page 1

It happened early in 1965, just six years after the invention of the integrated circuit (IC) andthree years before Gordon Moore would help found Intel Corporation. ICs were an expensiveniche technology, used primarily for military applications.

But Moore had seen the future. He observed that his engineers, many of whom becamethe first employees of Intel, had been achieving a doubling of the number of transistors onan integrated circuit every year. Based on this, he predicted that growth rate would continuefor another decade or so.

More importantly, he saw what the associated shrinking transistor size would mean:that ICs would become steadily cheaper, more powerful, and more plentiful. And that they’dtransform the electronics industry.

Moore’s Law, as it came to be known, has proven more accurate, lasted longer, andproduced more far-reaching changes than Dr. Moore ever expected. His prediction, sopowerful in its simplicity, has held sway for nearly four decades supported by Intel’s siliconengineering and manufacturing engine. What began as an observation has become bothcompass and engine, setting the bar for the semiconductor industry and producing anexponentially expanding universe of new applications and opportunities.

Now, rather than losing momentum, the innovations and breakthroughs gained fromIntel’s efforts to achieve the predictions of Moore’s Law are being harnessed and appliedto extend and expand it. Intel expects to produce billion-transistor processors by the endof the decade, and the range of devices that can be manufactured in silicon is expanding.So, while Intel’s performance to Moore’s Law has already transformed the world, its futureimpact is likely to be even more dramatic.

Looking BackDespite its name, Moore’s Law is not a law of science or nature. It is a principle thatdescribes the unique opportunity for exponential improvements provided by advancesin semiconductor technology. The genesis of the law was an article Gordon Moore wrotefor the 35th anniversary issue of Electronics magazine,published in April 1965. Moore had been asked to describethe future of electronics. Integrated circuits at the time werelimited to 30 transistors, but Moore’s research team wasfinishing a component with 60 transistors. Balancinginnovation and economic factors, Moore extrapolated thatthe number of devices on a silicon chip could double eachyear for the next decade. Professor Carver Mead, a colleagueat Cal Tech, later dubbed the prediction “Moore’s Law,” andthe name stuck. By 1975, the number of devices on a chipwas running slightly better than predicted. Moore, however,adjusted the doubling cycle to 24 months, to compensate forexpected increases in the complexity of semiconductors. Inthe late 80s, an Intel executive observed that Moore’s Law wasdriving a doubling of computing performance every 18 months.

The term Moore’s Law is also used to describe the law’s results: the continuingexponential growth of digital capability and improved price/performance. In the HarvardBusiness Review, Shona Brown noted that Moore’s Law functions as the “time pacingof technology.”

For more than 35 years,

Moore’s Law has guided the

computer industry, bringing a

seemingly unending spiral of

falling prices and rising performance.

Now, Intel is expanding

Moore’s Law, and its impact

promises to touch every

realm of human activity.

Processing Power (MIPS)# of Transistors

Asked to gauge the future of electronics,Dr. Gordon Moore predicted that transis-tors on a chip could double yearly through1970. Ever the visionary, Moore also saidintegrated circuits “will lead to such wondersas home computers...automatic controlsfor automobiles, and personal portablecommunications equipment.”

The Article that Spawned the LawElectronics*, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 2

Moore’s Vision

To see a world in a grain of sand.. .

—Wil l iam Blake

Moore’s LawMeans More Performance

Processing power, measured in Millions ofInstructions per Second (MIPS) has risenbecause of increased transistor counts.

page 1

It happened early in 1965, just six years after the invention of the integrated circuit (IC) andthree years before Gordon Moore would help found Intel Corporation. ICs were an expensiveniche technology, used primarily for military applications.

But Moore had seen the future. He observed that his engineers, many of whom becamethe first employees of Intel, had been achieving a doubling of the number of transistors onan integrated circuit every year. Based on this, he predicted that growth rate would continuefor another decade or so.

More importantly, he saw what the associated shrinking transistor size would mean:that ICs would become steadily cheaper, more powerful, and more plentiful. And that they’dtransform the electronics industry.

Moore’s Law, as it came to be known, has proven more accurate, lasted longer, andproduced more far-reaching changes than Dr. Moore ever expected. His prediction, sopowerful in its simplicity, has held sway for nearly four decades supported by Intel’s siliconengineering and manufacturing engine. What began as an observation has become bothcompass and engine, setting the bar for the semiconductor industry and producing anexponentially expanding universe of new applications and opportunities.

Now, rather than losing momentum, the innovations and breakthroughs gained fromIntel’s efforts to achieve the predictions of Moore’s Law are being harnessed and appliedto extend and expand it. Intel expects to produce billion-transistor processors by the endof the decade, and the range of devices that can be manufactured in silicon is expanding.So, while Intel’s performance to Moore’s Law has already transformed the world, its futureimpact is likely to be even more dramatic.

Looking BackDespite its name, Moore’s Law is not a law of science or nature. It is a principle thatdescribes the unique opportunity for exponential improvements provided by advancesin semiconductor technology. The genesis of the law was an article Gordon Moore wrotefor the 35th anniversary issue of Electronics magazine,published in April 1965. Moore had been asked to describethe future of electronics. Integrated circuits at the time werelimited to 30 transistors, but Moore’s research team wasfinishing a component with 60 transistors. Balancinginnovation and economic factors, Moore extrapolated thatthe number of devices on a silicon chip could double eachyear for the next decade. Professor Carver Mead, a colleagueat Cal Tech, later dubbed the prediction “Moore’s Law,” andthe name stuck. By 1975, the number of devices on a chipwas running slightly better than predicted. Moore, however,adjusted the doubling cycle to 24 months, to compensate forexpected increases in the complexity of semiconductors. Inthe late 80s, an Intel executive observed that Moore’s Law wasdriving a doubling of computing performance every 18 months.

The term Moore’s Law is also used to describe the law’s results: the continuingexponential growth of digital capability and improved price/performance. In the HarvardBusiness Review, Shona Brown noted that Moore’s Law functions as the “time pacingof technology.”

For more than 35 years,

Moore’s Law has guided the

computer industry, bringing a

seemingly unending spiral of

falling prices and rising performance.

Now, Intel is expanding

Moore’s Law, and its impact

promises to touch every

realm of human activity.

Processing Power (MIPS)# of Transistors

Asked to gauge the future of electronics,Dr. Gordon Moore predicted that transis-tors on a chip could double yearly through1970. Ever the visionary, Moore also saidintegrated circuits “will lead to such wondersas home computers...automatic controlsfor automobiles, and personal portablecommunications equipment.”

The Article that Spawned the LawElectronics*, Volume 38, Number 8, April 19, 1965

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 3

Exponential ImpactThe impact of achieving the predictions of Moore’s Law has been profound. To look at itin simple terms of device count, the number of transistors on a chip has achieved multipletenfold increases since 1965’s 30-transistor devices. In 1975, device count was up to65,000. By 1989, the Intel® i486® processor had 1.4 million transistors. In January 2002,Intel announced the Intel® Pentium® 4 processor with Intel’s newest 0.13-micron technology,which packs 55 million transistors onto a piece of silicon the size of your fingernail. Soon,Intel technologists will add hundreds of millions of transistors annually.

The rising device counts, while breathtaking, are just the tip of the iceberg. Silicon’spower—and its uniqueness—is that nearly all parameters of microprocessor technologyimprove as transistor counts climb. For example, speed and performance have climbedeven more sharply than the number of transistors. The i486 processor ran at 25 MHz.Today’s Pentium 4 processors run at 2.20 GHz and rising. The predicted billion-transistorprocessor will likely run at speeds approaching 20 GHz.

To look at it from another perspective, in the early 1990s it took three years to movethe i486 from 25 MHz to 50 MHz. Today, Intel engineers are adding frequency at the rateof 25 MHz a week. Intel Chief Technology Officer Pat Gelsinger says that in a few years,Intel anticipates adding 25 MHz in a single day. Other attributes improved by Moore’s Lawinclude integration, size, functionality, energy efficiency, and reliability.

Over time, inflation generally lowers the value of the dollar or other currency. “Moore’sLaw Dollars” are subject to a more literal type of inflation over time: that of ever-increasingvalue and purchasing power. When Moore first stated his law, the cost of a single transistorwas in the neighborhood of $5. Today, $5 will buy you 5 million transistors, or roughly1 million transistors for $1. It’s hard to imagine $1 being able to buy 1 million of anything,let alone a million of these enormously potent devices. The fact that you can is a directconsequence of Moore’s Law and its unique value proposition: rapid cost reduction resultingin exponential value creation.

The real import of Moore’s Law is less in what it predicts than in what Intel’s efforts tomake and keep it a reality have produced. Today’s micro-processors power the economy, fuel the growth of the Internet,and run everything from toys to traffic lights. A throwaway musicalbirthday card has more computing power than the fastest mainframes of a few decades ago. And, as silicon technology evolves, Moore’s Law catalyzes the development of whole newapplication areas, bringing about the seamless integration of computing and communications and extending the reach of Moore’s Law well beyond today’s digital realms.

Extending the Law withSilicon Nanotechnology

“Moore ’s Law is changing.”

—Gordon Moore

page 2 page 3

U.S. $1.00 Purchasing Powercirca 2000*

*Estimates only based on USG CPI and other government and retail data indices.

1 candybar = 1 million transistors

1 cup of coffee = 1 million transistors

1 daily newspaper = 1 million transistors

Moore’s Law MeansDecreasing Costs

Packing more transistors intoless space has driven dramaticreductions in their cost andin the cost of the productsthey populate.

Ten

One

One Tenth

One Hundredth

One Thousandth

One Ten Thousandth

One Hundred Thousandth

One Millionth

One Ten Millionth

Transistor Pricein US Dollars

Moore's Law Begins 1965

19651968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2001

A Word AboutNanotechnologyA key factor in the continuance of

Moore’s Law, nanotechnology, or

sometimes referred to as molecular

manufacturing, is nothing new to

Intel. Since the launch of the Intel®

Pentium® 4 processor with transistor

gate widths of <70 nm, high-volume

fabrication of sub 100 nm struc-

tures has been the norm at Intel.

In fact, over the past three years,

Intel has manufactured and sold over

50 quadrillion nano-transistors

worth over $50 billion making it

one of today’s largest nanotech-

nology manufacturers. Going

forward, Intel understands that

maintaining its lead in sub 100 nm

transistor scaling depends on

implementing a host of new,

enabling nanotechnologies.

One such enabler, atomic layer

deposition (ALD), allows for the

self-assembly of molecules

one mono-atomic layer at a time

based on sophisticated, naturally

occurring chemical interactions.

And nanotubes or nanowires, built

through the controlled manipulation

of materials at the atomic level,

could eventually become the

building blocks for some future

generation of Intel® products.

Like prima ballerinas and basketball superstars, Intel's semiconductor technologists notonly accomplish the near-impossible, they make it look easy.

It's not.

Driving Moore's Law and delivering on its predictions means reducing processgeometries— shrinking the nominal feature size of the devices populating and poweringthe silicon. Shrinking the process geometries makes more space available to bring additionalnumbers and kinds of devices and functions to the chip. Over the last decade, Intel hasshrunk its process geometries by an order of magnitude, going from just under 1 micron(a micron is ~1/100th the width of a human hair) to minimum feature sizes of less than100 nanometers (nm) that define nanotechnology (see inset). In the coming decade, Intel'sprocess geometries will approach the physical limits of atomic structure, bringing newchallenges relating to power, heat, and particle behavior. Intel has already demonstratedtransistors with some features as thin as three atoms. To extend Moore's Law, Intel researchers are aggressively identifying and eliminatingany barriers that impede the company's ability to fulfill it. By focusing on fundamentals ofsilicon technology and manufacturing, including improvements and innovations in processand manufacturing technology, transistor structure and materials, and packaging — Intelbreakthroughs in the past two years alone have removed barriers to the continuance ofMoore's Law for at least another decade—and likely beyond.

• Process and Manufacturing Technology Lithography is the technology used to printthe intricate patterns that define integrated circuits onto silicon wafers. Intel’s current lithography technology used in volume production is a 130 nm process that features60 nm gate length transistors and six layers of copper interconnect. (To put this in perspective: a nanometer is a billionth of a meter.) In August 2002, Intel unveiled the industry's most advanced logic manufacturing process yet. The new 90 nm process allows printing of individual lines smaller than a virus, features seven layers of copper interconnect and integrates a number of industry-best technologies. For starters, it features the world's smallest CMOS transistors in production, measuring only 50 nm in gate length. It also implements the thinnest gate oxide ever used in production—just 1.2 nm or less than five atomic layers thick. Already used in building the world's highest capacity SRAM chip, Intel’s 90 nm process will go into volume manufacturing in 2003, providing significant advantages in performance, power efficiency, and cost.

Further out in time, a breakthrough lithography technology currently under develop-ment, will become the volume production standard. Known as Extreme Ultraviolet(EUV) lithography, this technology uses reflected rather than directly transmitted light which allows the patterning of lines smaller than 50 nm. Intel leads a consortium of semiconductor companies, the EUV LLC (Limited Liability Corporation), that's workingto develop and deploy EUV technology. In March 2001, Intel delivered to the EUV LLCthe first industry-standard format photomasks for EUV lithography which used a proprie-tary patterning process to demonstrate line widths 30 percent smaller than the most advanced masks in manufacturing today. Shortly thereafter, the LLC announced completionof the first full-scale prototype machine for making computer chips using this new lithography process. Intel anticipates building processors using EUV technology in the second half of the decade.

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 3

Exponential ImpactThe impact of achieving the predictions of Moore’s Law has been profound. To look at itin simple terms of device count, the number of transistors on a chip has achieved multipletenfold increases since 1965’s 30-transistor devices. In 1975, device count was up to65,000. By 1989, the Intel® i486® processor had 1.4 million transistors. In January 2002,Intel announced the Intel® Pentium® 4 processor with Intel’s newest 0.13-micron technology,which packs 55 million transistors onto a piece of silicon the size of your fingernail. Soon,Intel technologists will add hundreds of millions of transistors annually.

The rising device counts, while breathtaking, are just the tip of the iceberg. Silicon’spower—and its uniqueness—is that nearly all parameters of microprocessor technologyimprove as transistor counts climb. For example, speed and performance have climbedeven more sharply than the number of transistors. The i486 processor ran at 25 MHz.Today’s Pentium 4 processors run at 2.20 GHz and rising. The predicted billion-transistorprocessor will likely run at speeds approaching 20 GHz.

To look at it from another perspective, in the early 1990s it took three years to movethe i486 from 25 MHz to 50 MHz. Today, Intel engineers are adding frequency at the rateof 25 MHz a week. Intel Chief Technology Officer Pat Gelsinger says that in a few years,Intel anticipates adding 25 MHz in a single day. Other attributes improved by Moore’s Lawinclude integration, size, functionality, energy efficiency, and reliability.

Over time, inflation generally lowers the value of the dollar or other currency. “Moore’sLaw Dollars” are subject to a more literal type of inflation over time: that of ever-increasingvalue and purchasing power. When Moore first stated his law, the cost of a single transistorwas in the neighborhood of $5. Today, $5 will buy you 5 million transistors, or roughly1 million transistors for $1. It’s hard to imagine $1 being able to buy 1 million of anything,let alone a million of these enormously potent devices. The fact that you can is a directconsequence of Moore’s Law and its unique value proposition: rapid cost reduction resultingin exponential value creation.

The real import of Moore’s Law is less in what it predicts than in what Intel’s efforts tomake and keep it a reality have produced. Today’s micro-processors power the economy, fuel the growth of the Internet,and run everything from toys to traffic lights. A throwaway musicalbirthday card has more computing power than the fastest mainframes of a few decades ago. And, as silicon technology evolves, Moore’s Law catalyzes the development of whole newapplication areas, bringing about the seamless integration of computing and communications and extending the reach of Moore’s Law well beyond today’s digital realms.

Extending the Law withSilicon Nanotechnology

“Moore ’s Law is changing.”

—Gordon Moore

page 2 page 3

U.S. $1.00 Purchasing Powercirca 2000*

*Estimates only based on USG CPI and other government and retail data indices.

1 candybar = 1 million transistors

1 cup of coffee = 1 million transistors

1 daily newspaper = 1 million transistors

Moore’s Law MeansDecreasing Costs

Packing more transistors intoless space has driven dramaticreductions in their cost andin the cost of the productsthey populate.

Ten

One

One Tenth

One Hundredth

One Thousandth

One Ten Thousandth

One Hundred Thousandth

One Millionth

One Ten Millionth

Transistor Pricein US Dollars

Moore's Law Begins 1965

19651968

1973

1978

1983

1988

1993

1998

2001

A Word AboutNanotechnologyA key factor in the continuance of

Moore’s Law, nanotechnology, or

sometimes referred to as molecular

manufacturing, is nothing new to

Intel. Since the launch of the Intel®

Pentium® 4 processor with transistor

gate widths of <70 nm, high-volume

fabrication of sub 100 nm struc-

tures has been the norm at Intel.

In fact, over the past three years,

Intel has manufactured and sold over

50 quadrillion nano-transistors

worth over $50 billion making it

one of today’s largest nanotech-

nology manufacturers. Going

forward, Intel understands that

maintaining its lead in sub 100 nm

transistor scaling depends on

implementing a host of new,

enabling nanotechnologies.

One such enabler, atomic layer

deposition (ALD), allows for the

self-assembly of molecules

one mono-atomic layer at a time

based on sophisticated, naturally

occurring chemical interactions.

And nanotubes or nanowires, built

through the controlled manipulation

of materials at the atomic level,

could eventually become the

building blocks for some future

generation of Intel® products.

Like prima ballerinas and basketball superstars, Intel's semiconductor technologists notonly accomplish the near-impossible, they make it look easy.

It's not.

Driving Moore's Law and delivering on its predictions means reducing processgeometries— shrinking the nominal feature size of the devices populating and poweringthe silicon. Shrinking the process geometries makes more space available to bring additionalnumbers and kinds of devices and functions to the chip. Over the last decade, Intel hasshrunk its process geometries by an order of magnitude, going from just under 1 micron(a micron is ~1/100th the width of a human hair) to minimum feature sizes of less than100 nanometers (nm) that define nanotechnology (see inset). In the coming decade, Intel'sprocess geometries will approach the physical limits of atomic structure, bringing newchallenges relating to power, heat, and particle behavior. Intel has already demonstratedtransistors with some features as thin as three atoms. To extend Moore's Law, Intel researchers are aggressively identifying and eliminatingany barriers that impede the company's ability to fulfill it. By focusing on fundamentals ofsilicon technology and manufacturing, including improvements and innovations in processand manufacturing technology, transistor structure and materials, and packaging — Intelbreakthroughs in the past two years alone have removed barriers to the continuance ofMoore's Law for at least another decade—and likely beyond.

• Process and Manufacturing Technology Lithography is the technology used to printthe intricate patterns that define integrated circuits onto silicon wafers. Intel’s current lithography technology used in volume production is a 130 nm process that features60 nm gate length transistors and six layers of copper interconnect. (To put this in perspective: a nanometer is a billionth of a meter.) In August 2002, Intel unveiled the industry's most advanced logic manufacturing process yet. The new 90 nm process allows printing of individual lines smaller than a virus, features seven layers of copper interconnect and integrates a number of industry-best technologies. For starters, it features the world's smallest CMOS transistors in production, measuring only 50 nm in gate length. It also implements the thinnest gate oxide ever used in production—just 1.2 nm or less than five atomic layers thick. Already used in building the world's highest capacity SRAM chip, Intel’s 90 nm process will go into volume manufacturing in 2003, providing significant advantages in performance, power efficiency, and cost.

Further out in time, a breakthrough lithography technology currently under develop-ment, will become the volume production standard. Known as Extreme Ultraviolet(EUV) lithography, this technology uses reflected rather than directly transmitted light which allows the patterning of lines smaller than 50 nm. Intel leads a consortium of semiconductor companies, the EUV LLC (Limited Liability Corporation), that's workingto develop and deploy EUV technology. In March 2001, Intel delivered to the EUV LLCthe first industry-standard format photomasks for EUV lithography which used a proprie-tary patterning process to demonstrate line widths 30 percent smaller than the most advanced masks in manufacturing today. Shortly thereafter, the LLC announced completionof the first full-scale prototype machine for making computer chips using this new lithography process. Intel anticipates building processors using EUV technology in the second half of the decade.

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 4

Expanding on the Law:Beyond TransistorsIntel researchers are also expanding Moore’s Law—identifying andaggressively pursuing technologies that take silicon beyond just transistorsand performance, and making it possible to integrate new devices thatdeliver entirely new capabilities. As silicon-based transistor count doublesevery 24 months, so will our ability to increase their complexity andintegrate the convergence of many varieties of devices on a chip. Thiscombination—count, complexity, and convergence—means a richer setof resources for increasing capability and functionality and improving theflexibility with which it can be applied.

• Count. Increasing transistor count on a chip is fundamental to Moore’s Law.The more that can be integrated on a chip, the greater the potential for increased performance, functionality, and new capabilities. And as ever-shrinking transistorsizes enable increased transistor counts, they likewise reduce the space necessaryfor a particular logic or memory function, freeing room for new devices.

Sil icon-based capabil i ty wil l double every 24 months by increasingthe count, complexity, and convergence of components andtechnologies integrated on a chip.

The Paradox of Moore’s Law

As transistors grow smaller, opportunities grow larger.

Moore on Moore’s LawA Conversation with Dr. Gordon E. MooreChairman Emeritus, Intel CorporationFebruary 2002

Did you set out to formulate a law?

Dr. Moore: Not at all. This was in

the early days of integrated circuits,

and they were still quite expensive.

I looked at what had happened so far

in integrated circuits and saw that

we had been doubling about every

year in complexity. So I just blindly

extrapolated that doubling every year

for another 10 years—a thousandfold

increase in complexity from about 60

components to something like 60,000.

And I took that as the way we are going

to make cheap electronics. I did not

expect it to be accurate, I just wanted

to show the trend I expected. It was

not intended to be a precise prediction

at all, but only a guiding idea that

integrated circuits were going to change

the entire economics of the electronics

industry.

Is there something that people don’t

“get” about Moore’s Law?

Dr. Moore: If there is, it is that the single

most important thing Moore’s Law does

is decrease cost.

What role does Moore’s Law play today?

Dr. Moore: Moore’s Law has become a

self-fulfilling prophecy. The fact that

things are changing exponentially has

now generally been recognized by all

the participants in the industry. Every

company knows that unless they keep

moving at that pace, they are going to

fall behind. It has kind of become a

guideline of how fast things have to

continue to evolve. It has become the

driver of what happens, because of

people’s recognition that you have to

stay on it or ahead of it to be

competitive.

page 4 page 5

Count, Complexity, and Convergence

By expanding beyond the singlevariable of device count, Moore’sLaw better comprehends theincreasing complexity of on-chipdevices and the convergence ofnew functions and technologiesinto silicon.

Count Complexity Convergence

Tr

an

si

st

or

s

Op

po

rt

un

it

ie

s

In order to maximize the impact of its leadership in process technology, Intel alsofocuses on continuous advances in manufacturing technology. Case in point: Wafer size.Wafers provide the base on which chips are manufactured. Use a bigger wafer and youreduce manufacturing costs and environmental impact and improve the yield per factory.By using 300 millimeter (12-inch) wafers on its current 130 nm process technology, Intelexpects to cut costs by 30 percent and energy and water requirements by 40 percent.And while much of the industry continues transitioning production to a 130 nm processon 200 mm wafers, Intel is already moving aggressively to deploy its new 90 nm processon 300 mm wafers exclusively.

• Transistor Structure and Materials In June 2001, Intel announced it had developedtransistors featuring structures that are just 20 nm in size. These new transistorsare 30 percent smaller and 25 percent faster than the industry's previous fastesttransistors, which Intel had also developed just one year earlier. By the end of 2001,Intel followed with yet another breakthrough—the world's smallest transistor, witha gate length of 15 nm. These incredibly small 15 nm transistors are approximately the size that will be needed in manufacturing toward the end of this decade.

As transistors continue to shrink and are packed more tightly onto slivers of silicon running at higher speeds, power consumption and heat can become potential limitingfactors for the continuance of Moore's Law. To address this problem of power density,Intel is exploring the use of new structures, such as the tri-gate transistor, andnew materials, such as strained silicon, that allow for increased performance while improving power efficiency. Intel’s Terahertz transistor, announced in November 2001,is perhaps the best example of this. Featuring a depleted substrate transistor structureand a new high k gate dielectric material, this experimental device can turn on and off a trillion times per second. (It would take you more than 15,000 years to turn a light switch on and off a trillion times.) Intel expects to incorporate elements of this new transistor design into its production line in the second half of this decade.

• Packaging Today's silicon chips are connected to their packaging via tiny balls ofsolder, or “bumps,” that make the electrical and mechanical connections between the package and the chip. As the frequency of future processors increases exponentially, the performance of the bumps, thickness of the packaging, and number of connectionpoints become concerns. In October 2001, Intel announced an innovative packaging breakthrough, Bumpless Build-up Layer (BBUL), that eliminates these bumps by growingthe package around the silicon. This technique reduces the thickness of the package and enables the processor to run at a lower voltage. BBUL packaging technology isjust one example of an innovative way to embed powerful computer chips into verysmall spaces.

Intel is also pushing the packaging envelope with a variety of significant new technologiesin chip scale packaging, creating higher density, "system-in-a-package" solutions that use the world's most advanced folded stacked chip scale packaging. These packagingsolutions not only allow for higher in-package silicon density while simultaneously reducingthe overall package footprint, but also offer new and flexible methods for improved functional integration of dissimilar silicon devices.

Driving Moore's Law also requires increased networking and collaboration with con-sortia (like International SemaTech), standards-setting bodies, suppliers, collaborators, andcustomers. Intel has implemented a unique “research without walls” approach that'screating an expanded innovation ecosystem. The company has funded labs at leadinguniversities, such as the Intel Research Berkeley lab at the University of California, wheretiny “mote technology” sensor chips are in development. Intel also supports promisingacademic research around the world, and Intel Capital provides assistance to start-upsdeveloping next-generation technologies.

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 4

Expanding on the Law:Beyond TransistorsIntel researchers are also expanding Moore’s Law—identifying andaggressively pursuing technologies that take silicon beyond just transistorsand performance, and making it possible to integrate new devices thatdeliver entirely new capabilities. As silicon-based transistor count doublesevery 24 months, so will our ability to increase their complexity andintegrate the convergence of many varieties of devices on a chip. Thiscombination—count, complexity, and convergence—means a richer setof resources for increasing capability and functionality and improving theflexibility with which it can be applied.

• Count. Increasing transistor count on a chip is fundamental to Moore’s Law.The more that can be integrated on a chip, the greater the potential for increased performance, functionality, and new capabilities. And as ever-shrinking transistorsizes enable increased transistor counts, they likewise reduce the space necessaryfor a particular logic or memory function, freeing room for new devices.

Sil icon-based capabil i ty wil l double every 24 months by increasingthe count, complexity, and convergence of components andtechnologies integrated on a chip.

The Paradox of Moore’s Law

As transistors grow smaller, opportunities grow larger.

Moore on Moore’s LawA Conversation with Dr. Gordon E. MooreChairman Emeritus, Intel CorporationFebruary 2002

Did you set out to formulate a law?

Dr. Moore: Not at all. This was in

the early days of integrated circuits,

and they were still quite expensive.

I looked at what had happened so far

in integrated circuits and saw that

we had been doubling about every

year in complexity. So I just blindly

extrapolated that doubling every year

for another 10 years—a thousandfold

increase in complexity from about 60

components to something like 60,000.

And I took that as the way we are going

to make cheap electronics. I did not

expect it to be accurate, I just wanted

to show the trend I expected. It was

not intended to be a precise prediction

at all, but only a guiding idea that

integrated circuits were going to change

the entire economics of the electronics

industry.

Is there something that people don’t

“get” about Moore’s Law?

Dr. Moore: If there is, it is that the single

most important thing Moore’s Law does

is decrease cost.

What role does Moore’s Law play today?

Dr. Moore: Moore’s Law has become a

self-fulfilling prophecy. The fact that

things are changing exponentially has

now generally been recognized by all

the participants in the industry. Every

company knows that unless they keep

moving at that pace, they are going to

fall behind. It has kind of become a

guideline of how fast things have to

continue to evolve. It has become the

driver of what happens, because of

people’s recognition that you have to

stay on it or ahead of it to be

competitive.

page 4 page 5

Count, Complexity, and Convergence

By expanding beyond the singlevariable of device count, Moore’sLaw better comprehends theincreasing complexity of on-chipdevices and the convergence ofnew functions and technologiesinto silicon.

Count Complexity Convergence

Tr

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s

Op

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un

it

ie

s

In order to maximize the impact of its leadership in process technology, Intel alsofocuses on continuous advances in manufacturing technology. Case in point: Wafer size.Wafers provide the base on which chips are manufactured. Use a bigger wafer and youreduce manufacturing costs and environmental impact and improve the yield per factory.By using 300 millimeter (12-inch) wafers on its current 130 nm process technology, Intelexpects to cut costs by 30 percent and energy and water requirements by 40 percent.And while much of the industry continues transitioning production to a 130 nm processon 200 mm wafers, Intel is already moving aggressively to deploy its new 90 nm processon 300 mm wafers exclusively.

• Transistor Structure and Materials In June 2001, Intel announced it had developedtransistors featuring structures that are just 20 nm in size. These new transistorsare 30 percent smaller and 25 percent faster than the industry's previous fastesttransistors, which Intel had also developed just one year earlier. By the end of 2001,Intel followed with yet another breakthrough—the world's smallest transistor, witha gate length of 15 nm. These incredibly small 15 nm transistors are approximately the size that will be needed in manufacturing toward the end of this decade.

As transistors continue to shrink and are packed more tightly onto slivers of silicon running at higher speeds, power consumption and heat can become potential limitingfactors for the continuance of Moore's Law. To address this problem of power density,Intel is exploring the use of new structures, such as the tri-gate transistor, andnew materials, such as strained silicon, that allow for increased performance while improving power efficiency. Intel’s Terahertz transistor, announced in November 2001,is perhaps the best example of this. Featuring a depleted substrate transistor structureand a new high k gate dielectric material, this experimental device can turn on and off a trillion times per second. (It would take you more than 15,000 years to turn a light switch on and off a trillion times.) Intel expects to incorporate elements of this new transistor design into its production line in the second half of this decade.

• Packaging Today's silicon chips are connected to their packaging via tiny balls ofsolder, or “bumps,” that make the electrical and mechanical connections between the package and the chip. As the frequency of future processors increases exponentially, the performance of the bumps, thickness of the packaging, and number of connectionpoints become concerns. In October 2001, Intel announced an innovative packaging breakthrough, Bumpless Build-up Layer (BBUL), that eliminates these bumps by growingthe package around the silicon. This technique reduces the thickness of the package and enables the processor to run at a lower voltage. BBUL packaging technology isjust one example of an innovative way to embed powerful computer chips into verysmall spaces.

Intel is also pushing the packaging envelope with a variety of significant new technologiesin chip scale packaging, creating higher density, "system-in-a-package" solutions that use the world's most advanced folded stacked chip scale packaging. These packagingsolutions not only allow for higher in-package silicon density while simultaneously reducingthe overall package footprint, but also offer new and flexible methods for improved functional integration of dissimilar silicon devices.

Driving Moore's Law also requires increased networking and collaboration with con-sortia (like International SemaTech), standards-setting bodies, suppliers, collaborators, andcustomers. Intel has implemented a unique “research without walls” approach that'screating an expanded innovation ecosystem. The company has funded labs at leadinguniversities, such as the Intel Research Berkeley lab at the University of California, wheretiny “mote technology” sensor chips are in development. Intel also supports promisingacademic research around the world, and Intel Capital provides assistance to start-upsdeveloping next-generation technologies.

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 5

• Complexity. Gordon Moore has often cited rising complexity as a key factor in realizingMoore’s Law. Rising complexity can include such advances as incorporating air gaps,

moving parts, antennae or other new structures to deliver new functionality through silicon.

• Convergence. Convergence brings together multiple, diverse functions and heterogeneoustechnologies onto a single chip to maximize integration and functionality. Convergenceoffers extra opportunity for innovation, bringing new functionality and increased value to semiconductor products. New opportunities include combining traditional transistor-based functionality with new Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) devices such asradio frequency (RF) antennae to provide an existing logic chip product with fully-integratedlow-cost silicon radio with intelligent roaming or adding microradiators that minimize oreliminate the need for supplementary cooling solutions associated with such logicchip products.

The impact of Intel’s ability to achieve the predictions of Moore’s Law reaches far beyondthe computer. The breakaway power of having millions and eventually billions of transistorson a chip, along with the added dimensions of complexity and convergence, offer increasingopportunities to make the resulting benefits of driving Moore’s Law available to an evenbroader range of technologies, application areas, and product spaces. The expandingimpact of Moore’s Law is shaping the next generation of such diverse technologies as:

• MEMS• Fluidics• Wireless connectivity• Self-configuring sensor networks• Optical transmission and processing• Biological technologies

The goal in each case is not simply to improve performance but to deliver new functionalityand provide an open platform for expanded innovation. Combined with our increasinglynetworked world, this shift opens the door to a host of new applications and moves Moore’sLaw into new domains—from cars to kitchens to intelligent objects.

The effect of Moore’s Law can also transform an arcane, niche technology into a ubiquitousone—as it did in the case of the integrated circuit itself. Niche technologies are typicallydesigned for a unique attribute of or application in a vertical market. Because they ’re specializedand have limited utility, they’re usually expensive. Intel’s delivery of Moore’s Law can makethe technology more affordable, which increases demand, which makes the technologywidely available. The niche technology becomes part of the mainstream. And, given newfunctionality and made ubiquitous, it opens the door to new markets, products, anduser populations.

An Expanding Innovation IndustrySilicon is the raw material for the innovation ecosystem of the 21st century, much as themanufacture and use of steel were in the early 20th century. Moore’s Law silicon haspropelled the world into the information age by miniaturizing and connecting electronics.With Intel’s relentless extension and expansion of Moore’s Law, silicon is destined to becomethe bridge between the physical and electronic universes—connecting the world of atomsto the world of bits, photons to electrons, and electrons to radio waves. As the impact of delivering to Moore’s Law expands, so too do the industries built onIntel’s technology. The continued evolution of integrated circuit capability as a result of thepredictions of Moore’s Law both enriches traditional businesses with new capability, andpropels the technology industry into a larger universe. For example, ad hoc sensor networkswith on-chip wireless communications will generate huge volumes of new data andinformation for data centers and desktops, and will extend the size, reach and value of thetraditional server and PC products, and will expand the market for applications and servicesthat create value information. Intel’s pursuit of making Moore’s Law a reality has transformed our world. But futureopportunity far exceeds past benefits. In a world where most of the world’s populationstill has little or no access to digital technology, meeting the predictions of Moore’s Lawwill help bring developing nations into the digital world. A wealth of new market spaces willemerge as factors of cost, size, and connectivity continue to bring something magical tovirtually every human realm and activity.

“The pace of si l icon development is accelerating, not decelerating.”

—Robert Chau, Intel Fel low Director of Transistor Research Intel Logic Technology Development

What effect has Moore’s Law

had on Intel?

Dr. Moore: The impact on Intel has

been similar to what it has been on the

rest of the industry. Over the last 10

years or so Moore’s Law has become

absolutely a driving force. Now, had

there never been a Moore’s Law, I do

not know how different it would be.

Competitive pressures obviously push

us in this direction. But it gives us a

benchmark that we can measure

ourselves against. We can see our rate

of progress, we can see what our rate

of progress has to be if we are going

to stay ahead of the industry. In that

respect I think it has had an impact.

But I am sure had I not plotted the

curves in 1965, similar kinds of

parameters would have been measured

and this exponential trend would

generally have been recognized as

important and really driving the industry

by now.

What new applications will we

see as we go forward with Moore’s

Law—as we increase the complexity

and convergence and add embedded

machines to the chip?

Dr. Moore: That is a very, very difficult

question. If you had asked me about

new applications in 1980, I would have

missed the PC. If you had asked me in

1990, I would have missed the Internet.

Knowing that, I think the combination

of a large, powerful network, which the

Internet should become, particularly

when we can get broadband out to

the ends with easy, cheap, available

computing power—that’s going to have

an impact that is hard for any of us to

imagine. Another thing that intrigues

me is when my computer has really

good speech recognition, when you can

ask it a question in ordinary English and

get an answer back in ordinary English.

These things are not that far away,

and I think they profoundly change the

way people work with machines and

interact with one another. That’s just

one example. But the power of a net-

work of very, very powerful machines

that couple humans together, I think

is going to have an impact that is far

beyond my comprehension.

A New Computing and Communications GeographyBy applying the principles of Moore’s Law to new classes of functionality, Intel is bringingabout a new computing and communications geography, making these new technologiesmore affordable and widespread, and opening the door to broad new areas of innovationwhere computing and communications converge. Here are three examples:

Ad hoc sensor networks combine silicon advances with self-organizing networking research to enable thousands of embedded sensing devices to wirelessly connect and share information. These sensor networks lend themselves to a wide range of applications including a recently deployed nonintrusive habitat monitoring network. In support of a study to monitor the

nesting habitat of the Leach’s Storm Petrel on Great Duck Island, Maine, a sensor networkprovides scientists with key data without disruptive human presence. As a result, thiscollaboration between the Intel Research Lab at Berkeley and the College of the Atlanticis already yielding higher productivity, more accurate data, new insights and greater efficiencyfor the project overall.

Silicon radios will help extend expensive wireless chipsets into ubiquitous (and very inexpensive) on chip silicon radios. Intel’s ongoing ability to apply the principles of Moore’s Law will make it possible to have dynamically reconfigurable silicon radios, which consume less power and occupy less space on a chip via tighter integration while adding valuable capabilities and

flexibility. With recent successes in MEMS, smart antenna systems and CMOS integrationof transceiver chain components, Intel continues to deliver toward its long-term vision ofproviding radio-readiness on every chip.

page 6 page 7

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 5

• Complexity. Gordon Moore has often cited rising complexity as a key factor in realizingMoore’s Law. Rising complexity can include such advances as incorporating air gaps,

moving parts, antennae or other new structures to deliver new functionality through silicon.

• Convergence. Convergence brings together multiple, diverse functions and heterogeneoustechnologies onto a single chip to maximize integration and functionality. Convergenceoffers extra opportunity for innovation, bringing new functionality and increased value to semiconductor products. New opportunities include combining traditional transistor-based functionality with new Microelectromechanical Systems (MEMS) devices such asradio frequency (RF) antennae to provide an existing logic chip product with fully-integratedlow-cost silicon radio with intelligent roaming or adding microradiators that minimize oreliminate the need for supplementary cooling solutions associated with such logicchip products.

The impact of Intel’s ability to achieve the predictions of Moore’s Law reaches far beyondthe computer. The breakaway power of having millions and eventually billions of transistorson a chip, along with the added dimensions of complexity and convergence, offer increasingopportunities to make the resulting benefits of driving Moore’s Law available to an evenbroader range of technologies, application areas, and product spaces. The expandingimpact of Moore’s Law is shaping the next generation of such diverse technologies as:

• MEMS• Fluidics• Wireless connectivity• Self-configuring sensor networks• Optical transmission and processing• Biological technologies

The goal in each case is not simply to improve performance but to deliver new functionalityand provide an open platform for expanded innovation. Combined with our increasinglynetworked world, this shift opens the door to a host of new applications and moves Moore’sLaw into new domains—from cars to kitchens to intelligent objects.

The effect of Moore’s Law can also transform an arcane, niche technology into a ubiquitousone—as it did in the case of the integrated circuit itself. Niche technologies are typicallydesigned for a unique attribute of or application in a vertical market. Because they ’re specializedand have limited utility, they’re usually expensive. Intel’s delivery of Moore’s Law can makethe technology more affordable, which increases demand, which makes the technologywidely available. The niche technology becomes part of the mainstream. And, given newfunctionality and made ubiquitous, it opens the door to new markets, products, anduser populations.

An Expanding Innovation IndustrySilicon is the raw material for the innovation ecosystem of the 21st century, much as themanufacture and use of steel were in the early 20th century. Moore’s Law silicon haspropelled the world into the information age by miniaturizing and connecting electronics.With Intel’s relentless extension and expansion of Moore’s Law, silicon is destined to becomethe bridge between the physical and electronic universes—connecting the world of atomsto the world of bits, photons to electrons, and electrons to radio waves. As the impact of delivering to Moore’s Law expands, so too do the industries built onIntel’s technology. The continued evolution of integrated circuit capability as a result of thepredictions of Moore’s Law both enriches traditional businesses with new capability, andpropels the technology industry into a larger universe. For example, ad hoc sensor networkswith on-chip wireless communications will generate huge volumes of new data andinformation for data centers and desktops, and will extend the size, reach and value of thetraditional server and PC products, and will expand the market for applications and servicesthat create value information. Intel’s pursuit of making Moore’s Law a reality has transformed our world. But futureopportunity far exceeds past benefits. In a world where most of the world’s populationstill has little or no access to digital technology, meeting the predictions of Moore’s Lawwill help bring developing nations into the digital world. A wealth of new market spaces willemerge as factors of cost, size, and connectivity continue to bring something magical tovirtually every human realm and activity.

“The pace of si l icon development is accelerating, not decelerating.”

—Robert Chau, Intel Fel low Director of Transistor Research Intel Logic Technology Development

What effect has Moore’s Law

had on Intel?

Dr. Moore: The impact on Intel has

been similar to what it has been on the

rest of the industry. Over the last 10

years or so Moore’s Law has become

absolutely a driving force. Now, had

there never been a Moore’s Law, I do

not know how different it would be.

Competitive pressures obviously push

us in this direction. But it gives us a

benchmark that we can measure

ourselves against. We can see our rate

of progress, we can see what our rate

of progress has to be if we are going

to stay ahead of the industry. In that

respect I think it has had an impact.

But I am sure had I not plotted the

curves in 1965, similar kinds of

parameters would have been measured

and this exponential trend would

generally have been recognized as

important and really driving the industry

by now.

What new applications will we

see as we go forward with Moore’s

Law—as we increase the complexity

and convergence and add embedded

machines to the chip?

Dr. Moore: That is a very, very difficult

question. If you had asked me about

new applications in 1980, I would have

missed the PC. If you had asked me in

1990, I would have missed the Internet.

Knowing that, I think the combination

of a large, powerful network, which the

Internet should become, particularly

when we can get broadband out to

the ends with easy, cheap, available

computing power—that’s going to have

an impact that is hard for any of us to

imagine. Another thing that intrigues

me is when my computer has really

good speech recognition, when you can

ask it a question in ordinary English and

get an answer back in ordinary English.

These things are not that far away,

and I think they profoundly change the

way people work with machines and

interact with one another. That’s just

one example. But the power of a net-

work of very, very powerful machines

that couple humans together, I think

is going to have an impact that is far

beyond my comprehension.

A New Computing and Communications GeographyBy applying the principles of Moore’s Law to new classes of functionality, Intel is bringingabout a new computing and communications geography, making these new technologiesmore affordable and widespread, and opening the door to broad new areas of innovationwhere computing and communications converge. Here are three examples:

Ad hoc sensor networks combine silicon advances with self-organizing networking research to enable thousands of embedded sensing devices to wirelessly connect and share information. These sensor networks lend themselves to a wide range of applications including a recently deployed nonintrusive habitat monitoring network. In support of a study to monitor the

nesting habitat of the Leach’s Storm Petrel on Great Duck Island, Maine, a sensor networkprovides scientists with key data without disruptive human presence. As a result, thiscollaboration between the Intel Research Lab at Berkeley and the College of the Atlanticis already yielding higher productivity, more accurate data, new insights and greater efficiencyfor the project overall.

Silicon radios will help extend expensive wireless chipsets into ubiquitous (and very inexpensive) on chip silicon radios. Intel’s ongoing ability to apply the principles of Moore’s Law will make it possible to have dynamically reconfigurable silicon radios, which consume less power and occupy less space on a chip via tighter integration while adding valuable capabilities and

flexibility. With recent successes in MEMS, smart antenna systems and CMOS integrationof transceiver chain components, Intel continues to deliver toward its long-term vision ofproviding radio-readiness on every chip.

page 6 page 7

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 6

From 55 mil l ion today, Intel expects to producebil l ion-transistor chips by the end of the decade.

Moore’s Law is increasingly used as a

benchmark for improved performance

rather than any mechanical reason for

it. Are you comfortable with that?

Dr. Moore: I think so. I think improved

performance ties closely enough to the

technology that it is a corollary of what

we have been doing. Now, it is not the

only way to improve performance. One

of the principal aspects of Moore’s Law

has been getting this improved per-

formance at the same or lower cost

all the time. We have been taking

advantage of the original idea I was

after with the article in 1965—that

electronics were going to be cheap

because we were going to put an awful

lot of them in a small area.

What is the most exciting thing ahead

from your point of view?

Dr. Moore: The most exciting thing

is going to be the surprises I cannot

predict. The most important things

are usually the ones that people within

the industry do not see. They tend to

develop outside the industry. I do not

know. I just wait to be surprised with

the next one that comes along.

Making the Most of Moore’s Law

Silicon photonics brings optical networking technologies into silicon, extendingthe cost, size, and performance advantages realized by applying the principlesof Moore’s Law to a new and important arena. In February 2002, Inteldemonstrated a prototype of a silicon-based tunable filter that could reduce

the cost by orders of magnitude. More recently, Intel used a similar type of silicon-basedtunable filter to illustrate how such a technology might be used to improve the performanceof a readily available and inexpensive laser to that of higher performance laser use in today’soptical networks. These examples and future demonstrations of developing optical buildingblocks in silicon will someday allow tighter integration, improve performance and reducecosts by orders of magnitude. As Intel continues to deliver innovation in the optical arena,silicon photonics could allow faster adoption into the data center and platforms andsomeday to the processor.

When Gordon Moore formulated the law that bears his name, he hoped to promote wideruse of semiconductors in everyday life by showing that the technology would becomeincreasingly cost efficient. He achieved that and more: his law became a blueprint for thegrowth of semiconductor capability over the next four decades, and it remains a reliableguide to the future.

Gordon Moore once commented to Carver Mead that delivering innovative technologyalways takes longer than you expected. “But then,” he added, “Things go much furtherthan you would ever believe!”

Moore’s Law began as an expression of one man’s confidence in the expanding capabilityof semiconductor technology. Now, as the law carries us further into the future, one thingis certain: no one knows how to make Moore’s Law a reality better than Intel or is morecommitted to deliver it. Intel is aggressively eliminating barriers to achieving the predictionsof Moore’s Law, expanding Moore’s Law scope with new resources, and extending thepower of silicon to new arenas. By relentlessly pursuing the opportunities enabled byincreased device count, complexity, and convergence on a chip, Intel continues to driveexponential increases in silicon capability—ensuring that technology providers and userscan continue to count on the powerful predictions of Moore’s Law for decades to come.

To learn more about Intel research and development and Moore’s Law,

go to www.intel.com/technology/

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 6

From 55 mil l ion today, Intel expects to producebil l ion-transistor chips by the end of the decade.

Moore’s Law is increasingly used as a

benchmark for improved performance

rather than any mechanical reason for

it. Are you comfortable with that?

Dr. Moore: I think so. I think improved

performance ties closely enough to the

technology that it is a corollary of what

we have been doing. Now, it is not the

only way to improve performance. One

of the principal aspects of Moore’s Law

has been getting this improved per-

formance at the same or lower cost

all the time. We have been taking

advantage of the original idea I was

after with the article in 1965—that

electronics were going to be cheap

because we were going to put an awful

lot of them in a small area.

What is the most exciting thing ahead

from your point of view?

Dr. Moore: The most exciting thing

is going to be the surprises I cannot

predict. The most important things

are usually the ones that people within

the industry do not see. They tend to

develop outside the industry. I do not

know. I just wait to be surprised with

the next one that comes along.

Making the Most of Moore’s Law

Silicon photonics brings optical networking technologies into silicon, extendingthe cost, size, and performance advantages realized by applying the principlesof Moore’s Law to a new and important arena. In February 2002, Inteldemonstrated a prototype of a silicon-based tunable filter that could reduce

the cost by orders of magnitude. More recently, Intel used a similar type of silicon-basedtunable filter to illustrate how such a technology might be used to improve the performanceof a readily available and inexpensive laser to that of higher performance laser use in today’soptical networks. These examples and future demonstrations of developing optical buildingblocks in silicon will someday allow tighter integration, improve performance and reducecosts by orders of magnitude. As Intel continues to deliver innovation in the optical arena,silicon photonics could allow faster adoption into the data center and platforms andsomeday to the processor.

When Gordon Moore formulated the law that bears his name, he hoped to promote wideruse of semiconductors in everyday life by showing that the technology would becomeincreasingly cost efficient. He achieved that and more: his law became a blueprint for thegrowth of semiconductor capability over the next four decades, and it remains a reliableguide to the future.

Gordon Moore once commented to Carver Mead that delivering innovative technologyalways takes longer than you expected. “But then,” he added, “Things go much furtherthan you would ever believe!”

Moore’s Law began as an expression of one man’s confidence in the expanding capabilityof semiconductor technology. Now, as the law carries us further into the future, one thingis certain: no one knows how to make Moore’s Law a reality better than Intel or is morecommitted to deliver it. Intel is aggressively eliminating barriers to achieving the predictionsof Moore’s Law, expanding Moore’s Law scope with new resources, and extending thepower of silicon to new arenas. By relentlessly pursuing the opportunities enabled byincreased device count, complexity, and convergence on a chip, Intel continues to driveexponential increases in silicon capability—ensuring that technology providers and userscan continue to count on the powerful predictions of Moore’s Law for decades to come.

To learn more about Intel research and development and Moore’s Law,

go to www.intel.com/technology/

moores bro_REV830.fh9 10/30/02 3:22 PM Page 1

ExpandingMoore’s LawThe Exponential Opportunity

Fall 2002 Update

Intel around the world

UNITED STATES AND CANADAIntel CorporationRobert Noyce Building2200 Mission College BoulevardP.O. Box 58119Santa Clara, CA 95052-8119USAPhone: (800) 628-8686

EUROPEIntel Corporation (UK) Ltd.Pipers WaySwindonWiltshire SN3 1RJUKPhone:England (44) 1793 403 000Germany (49) 89 99143 0France (33) 1 4571 7171Italy (39) 2 575 441Israel (972) 2 589 7111Netherlands (31) 10 286 6111Sweden (46) 8 705 5600

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SOUTH AMERICAIntel Semicondutores do BrazilRue Florida, 1703-2 and CJ22CEP 04565-001 Sao Paulo-SPBrazilPhone: (55) 11 5505 2296

For more informationTo learn more about Intel Corporation,visit our site on the World Wide Web atwww.intel.com

Copyright © 2002 Intel Corporation. All rights reserved.Printed in the USA 0902/10K/ASI/CS Product number: TL_002*Other names and brands may be claimed as the property of others .