monthly treasury update - november 2014.pdf

8/10/2019 Monthly Treasury Update - November 2014.pdf

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Dec 11, 2014

TREASURY

RESEARCHMonthly Update

Liquidity to Remain Largely Comfortable, Call RaAround 8%

The liquidity situation is expected to remain largely comfortagoing ahead, amidst continuation of deft liquidity managemby the RBI as well as the slackness observed in credit offtathis fiscal. The money market rates thus are expected to train a relatively narrow range, with the overnight weighaverage call rate seldom breaking the 8% mark.

G-Sec Market to Retain Positive Bias

The G-Sec market is expected to continue trading on a positnote in the wake of continued softness observed in glocrude oil prices. The G-Sec market could get a boost arouthe CPI inflation release for November, which could sereading below 4.5% levels. If the actual release comes in lwith the expectations, the market could rally further in hopof an earlier rate cut announcement by the RBI. The odampener could be the persistent weakness observeddomestic currency as well as the concerns over the domesfiscal situation.

Softer Inflation Reading Could Mute Weakness inRupee

The rupee is expected to maintain a largely weak bias trackcontinued demand for dollars. The dollar too has strengthened globtracking better macro data. The rupee could get some boost frthe upcoming CPI inflation reading, which is expected to comebelow the 4.5% mark. Another factor, that could keep the weakenbias on rupee muted, is the softening observed in global crudeprices, as the oil imports account for more than 30% of total impo.

OUTLOOK

Domestic Market Rates

Source: IDBI Bank Limited

Nov Oct Change

MIBOR (%) 8.02 7.39 0.63

Average Call Volumes (Rs Cr) 10627 12717 (2090)Weighted Average Call Rate 7.37 7.09 0.28

LAF Repo o/s (Rs Cr) 12781 9275 3506

LAF Reverse Repo o/s (Rs Cr) 8414 6637 1777

10 year G-Sec yield (%) 8.09 8.28 (0.19)

364 Day T-Bill Cutoff (%) 8.29 8.41 (0.12)

1-10 year spread(%) -0.14 -0.11 (0.03)

5 year AAA yield(%) 8.60 8.80 (0.20)

5 year AAA spread (%) 0.27 0.34 (0.07)

5 year OIS rate (%) 7.15 7.44 (0.29)

5 Year MIFOR Swap rate (%) 6.82 7.16 (0.34)

USD/INR 62.04 61.36 0.67

6 Month Forward Premia (%) 7.43 7.95 (0.52)

(Note: figures as of last trading day of the month other than call volumes; change over previous

month in absolute terms)

Global Rates


(Note: figures as of last trading day of the month; * Absolute Change in bps)

Nov Oct %Change

US Treasury 10Y yield (%) * 2.16 2.34 -0.17

6 Month USD LIBOR (%) * 0.33 0.33 0.00

WTI 66.15 80.54 -17.9Brent 68.99 84.80 -18.6

Dubai Fateh 67.92 83.24 -18.4

Gold 1167.38 1172.94 -0.5

LMEX 3023.20 3122.70 -3.2

EUR/USD 1.2452 1.2525 -0.6

GBP/USD 1.5645 1.5995 -2.2

USD/JPY 118.63 112.32 5.6

Namrata Narkar

+91 22 66263517

[email protected]

OIS Rates to Have Downward Bias

The OIS rates are expected to maintain their downward btracking the buoyancy in G-Sec market as well as tcomfortable money market situation. This would be aidedthe possibility of upcoming CPI inflation reading coming bel4.5% levels, which in turn could fuel hopes of an earlier reasing by the RBI.


2/16

2

Treasury Research Monthly Update

(220,000)

(170,000)

(120,000)

(70,000)

(20,000)

30,000

80,000

Apr-13 Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13 Dec-13Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14Aug-14

Figure 3 | Net Outstanding LAF Deployments

Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd

Figure 2 | NSE Overnight Mibor & LAF Repo

Rate

Source: NSE, RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd

Figure 1 | Total Call Volumes & Weighted Average

Overnight Call Rate

Source: The Reserve Bank of India, IDBI Bank Ltd

Money Market

RsCr

Liquidity Largely Comfortable, Call Rates Remain Sof

The liquidity situation was largely comfortable throughout the mon

of November. The net LAF Deployments turned positive at t

beginning of the month but, then were seen mostly in the negatiterritory averaging around Rs 12,000 cr. The call rates mostly hover

below the 8% mark during the month of November. The R

conducted variable rate reverse repo auctions worth Rs 1,80,000

during November, out of which successful allotment amounted to

1,18,956 cr. The RBI also conducted term repos worth Rs 1,27,000

out of which successful bidding was to the tune of Rs 96,404 cr.

CPs & CDs: Primary Market TransactionsThe primary market issuances under CDs during November 2014 we

noted at Rs 19,345 cr, against October issuances worth Rs 9,395 c

Majority of the primary market issuances took place for 2 month,month and 12 month tenors. The 2 month issuances took place in yiel

ranging from 8.30% to 8.43%. The 3 month issuances took place

yields ranging from 8.30% to 8.44%. The 12 month issuances too

place in yields ranging from 8.63% to 8.85%.

The primary market issuances under CPs during November 2014 we

noted at Rs 2,300 cr, which were lower than those seen in Octob

around Rs 4,125 cr. The issuance took place in 2 month, 3 month an

12 month tenors. The primary market issuances for 2 month teno

took place in the range of 8.38% to 8.49%. The primary market issuan

for 3 month tenor took place at 8.55%. The primary market issuan

for 12 month tenor took place at 8.75%-8.87%.

OutlookThe liquidity situation is expected to remain largely comfortable goi

ahead, amidst continuation of deft liquidity management by the RBI

well as the slackness observed in credit offtake this fiscal. The mon

market rates thus are expected to trade in a relatively narrow rang

with the overnight weighted average call rate seldom breaking the 8

mark.

RsCr

%

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1314

15

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14

TotalCall Volumes(RsCr) -LHS WeightedAvgOvernightCall Rate(%)-RHS

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00


NSEOvernight Mib LAF RepoRat


3/16


Figure 5 |10-Year Yield Movement


Figure 4 | Sovereign Yield Curve


Yields Soften on Continued Decline in Oil Prices, CP

Inflation at 5.5% and Expectation of Rate Easing bthe RBI

The G-Sec market opened the month of November on

buoyant note seeing cut in prices of petrol and diesel. Anoth

major reason for buoyancy in G-Sec market throughout th

month of November was the softness observed in crude o

prices. The global prices of oil fell from above $80 a barrel

below $70 a barrel level during the month of November. Th

market overall traded on a positive note albeit with hints

weakness tracking the depreciating bias in domestic currenc

The market buoyed considerably post a soft reading on C

inflation. The CPI inflation for October was noted considerab

soft at 5.52% levels. However, the market gains were mute

amidst reported comments from RBI Adviser, whereby h

mentioned that a rate cut in December policy meeting wou

be premature. However, reduction in the trade deficit leve

combined with some strengthening of currency, improved t

market sentiment. Towards close, the market turned beari

upon the announcement of an OMO Sale to be held by RB

early December. Nonetheless, a decision by the OPEC

retain current production levels buoyed the G-Sec mark

again, amidst hopes of continued softness in oil prices. Th10-year yield closed the month of November at 8.09% leve

amidst hopes of a dovish policy stance being adopted by th

RBI at its Fifth Bi-Monthly review, to be held early Decembe

Government Securities Market

%

ChangeinYields(bps)

Table 1 | Gilt spreads (in bps)

Gilt Spreads Change over

Spreads 28-Nov-14 31-Oct-14 1Month 3Month 6 Month

1Y - 10Y -10 -11 1 -2 -13

10Y - 15Y 11 8 3 -10 4

10Y - 30Y 11 8 3 -11 -3

20Y - 30Y 3 -15 18 -2 -2

1Y - 30Y -3 -3 0 -13 -16


Yield Flattens

The decline in yields was seen to be slightly sharper at farth

tenors as compared to the short end. The 1Y-10Y spread end

at 3bps lower at negative 14bps. The 1Y-20Y spread close

18bps lower at negative 6bps. The 15Y-20Y spread close18bps lower at negative 3bps. The 10Y-20Y spread close

lower by 15bps at 8bps. However, the 10Y-30Y spread close

higher by 3bps at 11bps.

YieldtoMaturity(%)

8.0

8.3

8.5

-40

-32

-24

-16

-8

0

1 3 5 10 12 15 20 25 30

Change (bps) - LHS Yields Current Month (%) - RHS

Yield s Previous Month (%) -RHS

7.0

7.3

7.5

7.8

8.0

8.3

8.5

8.8

9.0

9.3

9.5

Apr-13 Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun-14Aug-14Oct-14


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4


0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

3-Nov 7-Nov 11-Nov 13-Nov 17-Nov 19-Nov 21-Nov 25-Nov 27-Nov

NDS NDS-OM

Figure 7 | Daily Traded Volumes (Rs Cr)

Source: CCIL, IDBI Bank Limited

Figure 6 | Top Traded Securities (Rs Cr)



OutlookThe G-Sec market is expected to continue trading on a positive no

in the wake of continued softness observed in global crude oil pric

The G-Sec market could get a boost around the CPI inflation relea

for November, which could see a reading below 4.5% levels. If t

actual release comes in line with the expectations, the market cou

rally further in hopes of an earlier rate cut announcement by the RB

The only dampener could be the persistent weakness observed

domestic currency as well as the concerns over the domestic fisc

situation.

RsCr

RsCr

PDs and Public Sector Banks Remain Heavy Seller

Buying Undertaken by Private Sector Banks and Mutu

Funds

The trading activity in the G-Sec market including NDS Order Matchinsystem and NDS remained quite buoyant during November, ov

the levels seen in October. The average daily volumes during Novemb

were noted at Rs 46,166 cr, which were higher compared to Rs 45,6

cr seen in October.

8.40% GOI 2024 and 8.60% GOI 2028 were the top traded securiti

in November, comprising of volumes of Rs 3,01,240 cr and R

2,68,170 cr respectively. Both securities together formed around 81

of the volumes for top 5 most trade securities. The next high volum

were recorded by 8.27% GOI 2020 and 8.83% GOI 2023.

Primary Dealers sold considerably during November, with their n

selling amounting to Rs 8,241 cr. The Primary Dealers alternatebetween heavy buying and selling during the course of the mont

Public Sectors Banks too remained heavy sellers for the thi

consecutive month in November, with their net selling amounting

Rs 5,336 cr. The Public Sector Banks too alternated between heav

buying and selling during the course of the month. The other n

sellers during November were the Foreign Banks and 'Others' wi

their net selling amounting to Rs 1,121 cr and Rs 1,887 cr. The maj

buyers during November were the Mutual Funds and Private Secto

Banks. Their net buying amounted to Rs 8,877 cr and Rs 7,698

respectively. Mutual Funds bought heavily post the release of inflatio

data for October that came in around 5.5% levels.

Table 2| Category wise G-Sec Trade Details (Net

Buy/Sell in Rs. Cr)

Category Nov-14 Oct-14 Sep-14Foreign Banks -1121 9909 12124

Public Sector Banks -5336 -11532 -11347

Private Sector Banks 7698 -1267 8813

Mutual Funds 8877 4902 2600

Others -1887 1620 -23

Primary Dealers -8241 -3634 -12163


0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

8.40% GOI

2024

8.60% GOI

2028

8.27% GOI

2020

8.83% GOI

2023

8.28% GOI

2027


5/16




Table 3 | Benchmark Gilts

Security Price (Rs) Yield (%) Change in Yield over (%)

28-Nov 28-Nov 1 Month 3 Months 6 Months

364 Day T Bill 92.42 8.23 (0.16) (0.45) (0.42)

7.17% GOI 2015 99.42 8.28 (0.17) (0.41) -

7.59% GOI 2016 99.27 8.15 (0.14) (0.20) (0.20)

7.02% GOI 2016 98.39 8.03 (0.18) (0.33) (0.32)

8.07% GOI 2017 (JUL) 100.00 8.06 (0.15) (0.47) (0.32)

7.83% GOI 2018 99.11 8.13 (0.09) (0.46) (0.37)

7.28% GOI 2019 96.84 8.13 (0.13) (0.48) (0.41)

8.19% GOI 2020 99.95 8.20 (0.17) (0.51) (0.49)

7.80% GOI 2020 98.20 8.22 (0.14) (0.54) (0.45)

8.27% GOI 2020 100.39 8.18 (0.14) (0.45) na

8.12% GOI 2020 99.54 8.22 (0.14) (0.49) (0.48)

7.80% GOI 2021 97.87 8.23 (0.14) (0.53) (0.43)

8.79% GOI 2021 102.95 8.22 (0.19) (0.50) (0.47)

8.35% GOI 2022 100.75 8.21 (0.19) (0.55) (0.46)

8.15% GOI 2022 99.88 8.17 (0.25) (0.59) (0.56)

7.16% GOI 2023 93.68 8.21 (0.20) (0.55) (0.57)

8.83% GOI 2023 104.04 8.19 (0.22) (0.53) (0.45)

8.40% GOI 2024 102.05 8.09 (0.19) (0.47) na

9.15% GOI 2024 106.16 8.23 (0.18) (0.55) (0.56)

8.20% GOI 2025 100.00 8.20 (0.20) (0.64) (0.61)

8.33% GOI 2026 100.85 8.21 (0.18) (0.61) (0.61)

8.15% GOI 2026 100.40 8.10 na na na8.24% GOI 2027 100.30 8.20 (0.21) (0.63) (0.58)

8.26% GOI 2027 100.36 8.21 (0.19) (0.60) (0.46)

8.28% GOI 2027 100.61 8.20 (0.20) (0.62) (0.59)

6.01% GOI 2028 81.94 8.27 (0.09) (0.58) (0.50)

8.60% GOI 2028 103.64 8.15 (0.22) (0.57) (0.46)

8.97% GOI 2030 106.75 8.20 (0.18) (0.54) (0.54)

9.20% GOI 2030 108.75 8.20 (0.16) (0.57) (0.51)

8.28% GOI 2032 100.60 8.21 (0.16) (0.56) (0.59)

8.32% GOI 2032 101.35 8.17 (0.20) (0.58) (0.61)

8.24% GOI 2033 100.75 8.16 na na na

7.50% GOI 2034 93.45 8.17 (0.34) (0.56) (0.56)

7.40% GOI 2035 92.10 8.20 (0.16) (0.57) (0.58)

8.33% GOI 2036 101.15 8.21 (0.17) (0.55) (0.57)

6.83% GOI 2039 85.90 8.18 (0.19) (0.59) (0.59)

8.30% GOI 2040 101.30 8.18 (0.18) (0.58) (0.62)

8.83% GOI 2041 106.94 8.19 (0.17) (0.61) (0.61)

8.30% GOI 2042 101.39 8.17 (0.18) (0.59) (0.59)

9.23% GOI 2043 111.38 8.20 (0.16) (0.58) (0.58)


6/16

6


5-Nov-14 91-Days T-Bill 9000 9000.00 5500.00 - 8.31 97.97 4.63 -

5-Nov-14 182-Days T-Bill 6000 6000.00 2.00 - 8.40 95.98 3.20 -7-Nov-14 8.27% GOI 2020 2000 1991.50 8.50 0.00 8.24 100.12 4.60 0.18

7-Nov-14 8.60% GOI 2028 7000 6986.00 14.00 0.00 8.28 102.56 2.88 0.23

7-Nov-14 8.30% GOI 2040 3000 2994.90 5.10 0.00 8.27 100.35 2.87 0.37

7-Nov-14 new 19-year 3000 2989.00 11.00 0.00 8.24 100.00 2.82 0.23

11-Nov-14 Goa 100 100.00 - - 8.42 100.00 6.55 -

11-Nov-14 Gujarat 1000 967.00 33.00 - 8.42 100.00 4.49 -

11-Nov-14 Maharashtra 1200 1163.00 37.00 - 8.43 100.00 3.93 -

11-Nov-14 Mizoram 20 20.00 - - 8.46 100.00 5.50 -

11-Nov-14 Puducherry 100 100.00 - - 8.46 100.00 5.10 -

11-Nov-14 Punjab 200 192.00 8.00 - 8.44 100.00 3.67 -

11-Nov-14 Rajasthan 500 500.00 - - 8.42 100.00 5.42 -

11-Nov-14 Tamil Nadu 1000 1223.35 26.65 - 8.44 100.00 3.39 -

11-Nov-14 Telangana 800 791.00 9.00 - 8.46 100.00 3.19 -

11-Nov-14 Uttar Pradesh 1250 1218.00 32.00 - 8.46 100.00 3.39 -

11-Nov-14 West Bengal 1000 991.00 9.00 - 8.44 100.00 3.88 -

12-Nov-14 91-Days T-Bill 8000 8000.00 6051.00 - 8.31 97.97 4.59 -

12-Nov-14 364-Days T-Bill 6000 6000.00 6.00 - 8.35 92.31 4.32 -

14-Nov-14 8.27% GOI 2020 3000 2981.00 19.00 0.00 8.29 99.90 3.74 0.19

14-Nov-14 8.40% GOI 2024 7000 6966.80 33.20 0.00 8.22 101.18 3.16 0.23

14-Nov-14 9.20% GOI 2030 2000 1991.37 8.63 0.00 8.32 107.63 3.03 0.37

14-Nov-14 9.23% GOI 2043 3000 2996.85 3.15 0.00 8.32 109.91 2.28 0.40

19-Nov-14 91-Days T-Bill 8000 8000.00 5003.14 - 8.27 97.98 6.16 -

19-Nov-14 182-Days T-Bill 6000 6000.00 174.00 - 8.40 95.98 2.59 -

21-Nov-14 8.27% GOI 2020 2000 1984.50 15.50 0.00 8.22 100.23 5.09 0.16

21-Nov-14 8.24% GOI 2033 3000 2993.00 7.00 0.00 8.21 100.25 3.56 0.2621-Nov-14 8.30% GOI 2040 3000 2993.65 6.35 0.00 8.26 100.37 2.24 0.33

21-Nov-14 new 12-year 6000 5968.45 31.55 0.00 8.15 100.00 2.84 0.17

25-Nov-14 Andhra Pradesh 2000 1928.00 72.00 - 8.46 100.00 2.92 -

25-Nov-14 Bihar 1000 975.00 25.00 - 8.45 100.00 4.07 -

25-Nov-14 Gujarat 1000 980.00 20.00 - 8.43 100.00 3.93 -

25-Nov-14 Haryana 500 489.00 11.00 - 8.43 100.00 2.70 -

25-Nov-14 Himachal Pradesh 200 197.50 2.50 - 8.45 100.00 7.04 -

25-Nov-14 Karnataka 2500 2385.70 114.30 - 8.45 100.00 3.49 -

25-Nov-14 Kerala 1000 986.40 13.60 - 8.44 100.00 3.43 -

25-Nov-14 Madhya Pradesh 750 736.00 14.00 - 8.45 100.00 3.38 -

25-Nov-14 Maharashtra 1500 1435.00 65.00 - 8.44 100.00 2.77 -

25-Nov-14 Nagaland 150 147.00 3.00 - 8.46 100.00 5.99 -

25-Nov-14 Punjab 300 270.80 29.20 - 8.45 100.00 1.86 -

25-Nov-14 Rajasthan 500 499.50 0.50 - 8.43 100.00 4.12 -

25-Nov-14 Tamil Nadu 1500 1805.00 70.00 - 8.44 100.00 2.11 -

25-Nov-14 Uttar Pradesh 1250 1218.50 31.50 - 8.45 100.00 3.33 -

25-Nov-14 West Bengal 1000 956.00 44.00 - 8.45 100.00 3.92 -

26-Nov-14 91-Days T-Bill 8000 8000.00 8500.00 - 8.27 97.98 4.71 -

26-Nov-14 364-Days T-Bill 6000 6000.00 3.00 - 8.29 92.36 4.75 -

28-Nov-14 8.27% GOI 2020 3000 2984.00 16.00 0.00 8.18 100.38 3.79 0.18

28-Nov-14 8.40% GOI 2024 6000 5987.00 13.00 0.00 8.10 101.96 2.17 0.20

28-Nov-14 9.20% GOI 2030 2000 1989.24 12.76 0.00 8.21 108.70 2.77 0.27

28-Nov-14 new 30-year 3000 2986.80 13.20 0.00 8.17 100.00 3.80 0.29

Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Limited

Table 4 | G-Sec, T-Bill & SDL Auction Details for the Month of November 2014

Date of Security / State Notified Competitive Non-Competitive Devolvment Cut-off Cut-off Bid-to Underwriting

Auction Amount Bids Bids- Accepted Amount Yield(%) Prise Cover Comission

(Rs cr) Accepted (Rs Cr) (Rs) Ratio (Paise per

(Rs Cr) Rs 100)


7/16


G-Sec Market Technical Analysis

Figure 8 |10-Year G-Sec (Daily)

Source: Thomson Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

10 year G-Sec (8.40% GOI 2024):

During the month of Nov 2014 The 10 year yields after opening at 8.242, it has surged downward and closed the month at 8.0

During the current month of December 2014 the surged continues and its currently at 7.908. The chart suggest the yield has brok

the support line of 8.11 and the immediate support might be at 7.90. The chart suggests it might consolidate and trade the mon

in a narrow range where the resistance will be at 8.11 and the support at 7.90. If the support of 7.90 breaks then we might see th

yield going towards 7.60.


8/16

8


0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

Apr-13Jun-13Aug-13Oct-13Dec-13Feb-14Apr-14Jun -14Aug-14Oct-14

5-year 10-year

Figure 10 | Benchmark AAA spread movement

Source: Reuters, IDBI Bank Limited

Figure 9 | Benchmark AAA yield movement


Bond Yield Decline Further

Table 5 | Corporate bond yields and spreads (As

of 28 Nov 2014) (%)

AAA AA+ AATenor Rate Spread Rate Spread Rate Spread

1 Year 8.59 0.15 8.79 0.35 8.99 0.55

3 Year 8.45 0.13 8.65 0.33 8.85 0.53

5 Year 8.60 0.27 8.80 0.47 9.00 0.67

10 Year 8.55 0.26 8.75 0.46 8.95 0.66


%

Corporate Bond Market

%

The credit spreads eased considerably during the month of Novemb

The spreads eased across all tenors. The decline in spreads reflect

the easing in liquidity conditions as well as the overall bullish sentime

in bond market amidst rising expectations over easing of intere

rates looking at the downtrend in inflation trajectory. The credit spre

on 1Y AAA paper closed the month unchanged at 15bps. Howeve

the 1Y spread had in fact turned negative during the course of th

month. The spread of 5Y AAA paper closed 7bps lower at 27bp

The credit spread on 10Y AAA paper ended 7bps lower at 26bpThe credit spread on the 3Y AAA paper ended the month 17b

lower at 13bps.

Credit Spreads Ease

The corporate bond secondary market yields eased further over th

course of November. The fall in yields was primarily tracking t

softening in G-Sec yields, as well as the reduction in the credit spread

The buoyancy in corporate bonds was largely tracking the so

readings on inflation and expectations of a softer interest ra

environment.

The benchmark 5Y yield closed the month 20bps lower at 8.60%

The 1Y yield ended the month lower by 7bps at 8.59%. The 3

yield closed 28bps lower at 8.45%. At the longer end, the 10Y yie

closed 26bps lower at 8.55%.

The overall secondary market activity in corporate bonds remain

buoyant over the month of November. The average daily tradi

volume during November was seen at Rs 5,901 cr against Rs 5,43cr seen in October.

OutlookThe corporate bond yields are expected to retain the softening bi

This downward bias is primarily expected to occur tracking the positi

sentiment in G-Sec market, as well as the comfortable liquidi

condition in the money markets.

Major primary market bond issuances were as follows: HDFC issu

Major primary market bond issuances were as follows: MTNL issu

10-year bond worth Rs 1,500 cr for a coupon rate of 8.24% (sem

annual). REC issued 5-year bonds worth Rs 1,700 cr for a coupo

rate of 8.56%. PFC issued 5-year bonds worth Rs 1,000 cr for

coupon rate of 8.76%. Tata Motors issued 9-year bonds worth

400 cr for a coupon rate of 9.40%. LIC Housing Finance issued

year bonds worth Rs 600 cr for a coupon rate of 8.70%. EXI

Bank issued 3-year bonds worth Rs 775 cr for a coupon rate

8.50%.

Primary Market Issuances

7.8

8.2

8.6

9.0

9.4

9.8

10.2

10.6

11.0


5-year 10-year


9/16


Figure 12 | Movement of 6 month forward premia


%

Figure 11 | INR movements against USD

Source: Bloomberg, IDBI Bank Limited

Rupee Weakens

The rupee traded on a considerable weakening bias over th

month of November. The weakness in currency was primartracking an increased demand for dollars from corporate

Moreover, the dollar too was seen strengthening globally. Th

losses in rupee were muted slightly tracking a softer reading o

CPI inflation, which touched 5.5% levels in October. The rup

then again weakened as the demand for dollars from corporat

persisted. The rupee then improved again temporarily seein

interest rate easing by China and comments from a governme

official highlighting possibility of the current account deficit f

current fiscal remaining contained between 1.7% to 2.0%

However, amidst persistant demand for dollars, the rupee clos

the month of November considerably weak at Rs 62.04 level

Forward Premia Rates Decline, Sharply at Farther Teno

The forward premia rates softened further during the month

November. The fall in rates was seen to be sharper at the long

tenors. The decline in rates was sharp during first few days

the month. The rates then hardened by the middle of the mont

The rate thereon started easing and dropped sharply on the la

day. The 1M premia closed the month 18bps lower at 7.58%

The 6M forward premia fell by 52bps to close the month at 7.43%

The 3M forward premia closed 24bps lower at 7.60%. The 12forward premia ended lower by 50bps at 7.06%.

Outlook

The rupee is expected to maintain a largely weak bias trackin

continued demand for dollars. The dollar too has strengthen

globally tracking better macro data. The rupee could get som

boost from the upcoming CPI inflation reading, which is expecte

to come in below the 4.5% mark. Another factor, that cou

keep the weakening bias on rupee muted, is the softenin

observed in global crude oil prices, as the oil imports accoufor more than 30% of total imports.

USD/INR

Forex Market

Table 6 | Forex rates

INR US$

Currency 28-Nov-14 31-Oct-14 28-Nov-14 31-Oct-14

US Dollar 62.0400 61.3600 - -

Euro 77.16 77.19 1.2475 1.2580

Pound Sterling 97.36 98.06 1.5699 1.6007

Japanese Yen 52.45 55.28 118 .23 111.61

Source: RBI, Bloomberg , IDBI Bank Limited

Table 7 | Forward premia (%)

Forward Premia 28-Nov-14 31-Oct-14 28-Mar-141 Month 7.58 7.76 9.23

3 Month 7.60 7.84 8.80

6 Month 7.43 7.95 8.77

12 Month 7.06 7.56 8.56


50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0


5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0



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0


Forex Market Technical Analysis

USD/INRUSD/INR currency pair open at 61.50 then it has continuously moved upward and closed the month at near to its high of 62.0during the month of Nov 2014. In the current month till now the pair moved in a range and it has now trading at 62.20. Th

resistance fopr the pair might be around 62.30 and the support at 61.80.

Figure 13 |USD/INR (Daily)


Figure 14 |EUR/USD (Daily)


EUR/USD

The EUR/USD currency pair after opening at 1.2515, it has moved downward and closed the month near its month at 1.2450. T

sentiment in Global is still negative, which might make the pair more volatile with downside bias. The technical chart suggests t

pair might get support at arround1.2200, if it breaks then the pair might go towards 1.12. On the upside the pair might faresistance at around 1.2690 during the month of December.


11/16


6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

Apr- 13J un-13Aug- 13Oct-13 Dec-13Feb-14Apr -14Jun -14Aug-14 Oct- 14

5 Year 1 Year

Figure 15 |1Y & 5Y OIS Rate


OIS Rates Softer Sharply

The OIS rates eased further during November, and the movemewas quite substantial especially towards close. The decline in rat

was primarily tracking the buoyant sentiment in the G-Sec markThe positive sentiment in markets was triggered by considerabsoftening observed in retail levels inflation, which in turn raised hop

of rate easing by the RBI. The fall in swap rates was also aided overall comfortable liquidity condition in money markets.

The 5Y OIS rate closed the month 37bps lower at 7.15%. The 3

rate too closed lower by 37bps at 7.18%. At the short end of thcurve the 1Y OIS rate ended 34bps lower at 7.76%. The 2Y raclosed lower by 35bps at 7.32%. Since the easing was comparab

across tenors, the spreads remained mostly stable over the mont

The 1Y-5Y spread closed the month lower at negative 61bps. T2Y-3Y spread closed a lower at negative 14bps. The 2Y-5Y and 3Y5Y spread closed at negative 17bps and negative 3bps respectively

Mifor Swap Rates Decline SharplyThe Mifor swap rates declined considerably over the month November. The easing was sharper at the farther tenors. The swrates fell tracking the decline in forward premia rates.

The 5Y swap rate closed 43bps lower at 6.82%. The 2Y swap raclosed at 6.76%, a fall of 44bps. The 3Y Mifor swap rate closlower by 48bps at 6.72%. The illiquid and volatile 1Y Mifor Sw

rate closed 29bps lower at 7.67%. Since the downward movemein rates was sharper at the farther end, swap curve flattened over tcourse of the month. The 1Y-5Y spread closed 14bps lower negative 85 bps. The 2Y-3Y spread ended lower at negative 4b

each..

OutlookThe OIS rates are expected to maintain their downward bias trackithe buoyancy in G-Sec market as well as the comfortable mon

market situation. This would be aided by the possibility of upcomiCPI inflation reading coming below 4.5% levels, which in turn coufuel hopes of an earlier rate easing by the RBI.

Figure 16 |1Y & 5Y Mifor Swap Rate


%

%

Swap Market

Table 8 | OIS and MIFOR Swap Rates (%)

OIS 28-Nov 31-Oct Change

1 Year 7.76 8.10 -0.34

2 Year 7.32 7.67 -0.35

3 Year 7.18 7.55 -0.37

5 Year 7.15 7.52 -0.37MIFOR Swaps 28-Nov 31-Oct Change

1 Year 7.67 7.96 -0.29

2 Year 6.76 7.20 -0.44

3 Year 6.72 7.20 -0.48

5 Year 6.82 7.25 -0.43


5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0


5 Year 1 Year


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2


-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000700,000

800,000

5-Apr 5-Jun 5-Aug 5-Oct 5-Dec 5-Feb

2014-15 2013-14

Figure 18 | Growth in Non-Food Credit (Rs cr)

Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd.

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

5-Apr 5-Jun 5-Aug 5-Oct 5-Dec 5-Feb

2014-15 2013-14

Figure 17 | Growth in Aggregate Deposits (Rs cr)


Figure 20 |Forex Reserves in USD Billion (Rs cr)

Source: RBI, IDBI Bank Limited

Figure 19 | Money Supply Growth Y-o-Y % (Rs cr)


(Rs cr)

Banking & Monetary Indicator

Table 9 |

Monetary Indicators 14-Nov-14 Change in Change in Change in

Fortnight 2013-14 2014-15

M3 10,143,770 (2,760) 719,340 646,440

Reserve Money* 1,748,450 90 101,630 15,710

Ways & Means - GOI* 10,560 (21,527) - -

Net RBI Credit to GOI* 556,820 (26,800) 67,810 (141,890)

Forex Reserves (US $ m)* 316,312 761 - 12,088

RBI Holding of Rupee Securities* 545,174 (4,561) - -

Banking Indicators 14-Nov-14 Change in Change in Change in

Fortnight 2013-14 2014-15

Aggregate Deposits 8,253,630 (23,320) 608,070 548,070

Total Bank Credit 6,252,940 (19,670) 372,720 258,840

Food Credit 105,850 (3,130) 5,370 7,370

Non Food Credit 6,147,090 (16,540) 367,360 251,480

Money in Call & Short Notice 22,080 980 (7,410) (5,720)

CRR Balances 336,790 (3,250) 31,950 20,450

SLR Investments 2,415,940 800 191,600 203,120

Total Outstanding G-Secs # 3,827,777

Source: RBI, Government of India, IDBI Bank Ltd (Note: * As of 28 November 2014 # As of 1 December 2014)

Monetary & Banking Indicators for Latest Fortnight

10%

12%

14%

16%

Apr-12Jul-12Oct-12Jan-13Apr-13Jul-13Oct-13Jan-14Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14240

260

280

300

320

340

Apr -12 Aug- 12 Dec- 12 Apr -13 Aug- 13 Dec- 13 Apr -14 Aug- 14


13/16


IIP Growth Rates M-o-M

Overall -3.5% 9.7% 2.5% -6.1% 11.9% -10.7% 1.5% -1.9% 0.1% -3.4% 3.3% --

Mining & Quarrying 4.1% 9.9% 2.4% -8.4% 15.5% -16.7% 2.2% -2.6% -3.8% -1.4% 0.1% --

Manufacturing -4.6% 10.0% 2.7% -5.6% 11.7% -11.4% 1.2% -1.9% 0.4% -4.2% 4.8% --

Electricity -2.5% 6.9% 1.0% -8.4% 10.4% 2.9% 3.3% -1.3% 1.2% 0.2% -4.6% --

Use Based --

Basic Goods 0.3% 7.4% 1.5% -6.2% 12.4% -7.5% 2.5% -2.2% -0.1% 0.6% -1.8% --

Capital Goods -4.7% 7.9% -5.3% -2.2% 29.1% -22.6% -3.0% 18.7% -3.7% -15.2% 17.3% --

Intermediate Goods -4.0% 8.7% 0.6% -5.2% 6.9% -6.6% 3.9% -2.8% 2.8% -2.3% -0.6% --Consumer Goods -7.9% 14.0% 7.8% -7.8% 7.2% -11.0% 0.7% -8.6% 0.7% -4.5% 7.4% --

Consumer Durables -20.3% -2.8% 14.2% -0.2% 5.1% -7.0% 2.9% -19.3% 3.7% -0.4% 10.1% --

Consumer Non-Durables 2.8% 25.2% 4.5% -12.0% 8.5% -13.5% -0.8% -1.3% -0.9% -7.0% 5.8% --

IIP Growth Rates Y-o-Y

Overall -1.3% 0.1% 1.1% -2.0% -0.5% 3.7% 5.6% 4.3% 0.4% 0.5% 2.5% --

Mining & Quarrying 1.6% 2.6% 2.7% 2.3% 0.5% 1.7% 2.5% 4.8% 1.2% 2.0% 0.7% --

Manufacturing -2.6% -1.1% 0.3% -3.9% -1.3% 3.0% 5.9% 2.9% -1.0% -1.3% 2.5% --

Electricity 6.3% 7.5% 6.5% 11.5% 5.4% 11.9% 6.7% 15.7% 11.7% 12.9% 3.9% --

Use Based --

Basic Goods 2.7% 3.0% 2.8% 4.5% 4.6% 8.6% 7.5% 10.2% 7.4% 9.2% 5.1% --

Capital Goods 0.1% -2.5% -3.9% -17.6% -11.5% 13.4% 4.2% 23.3% -3.9% -9.8% 11.6% --

Intermediate Goods 3.7% 5.2% 4.3% 4.0% 1.3% 3.0% 3.5% 2.6% 3.0% -0.1% 1.8% --

Consumer Goods -8.9% -4.6% -0.5% -5.2% -2.2% -4.8% 4.6% -8.8% -7.7% -6.5% -4.0% --

Consumer Durables -21.7% -16.4% -8.3% -9.8% -11.8% -7.7% 3.6% -23.3% -20.9% -15.0% -11.3% --Consumer Non-Durables 2.2% 2.8% 4.5% -2.0% 5.0% -2.7% 5.2% 1.9% 2.4% -0.4% 1.5% --

Growth in Eight Core Infrastructure Industries Index (Y-o-Y%)

Overall Index 1.73 2.06 1.61 4.47 2.53 4.24 2.35 7.25 2.65 5.84 1.89 6.32

Coal 2.34 -0.57 -0.69 0.06 0.67 3.27 5.48 8.11 6.18 13.36 7.25 16.20

Crude Oil 1.11 1.60 3.01 1.93 -1.61 -0.06 -0.29 0.07 -1.02 -4.89 -1.09 1.00

Natural Gas -11.26 -9.91 -5.19 -4.38 -9.32 -7.69 -2.22 -1.69 -8.96 -8.34 -6.15 -4.24

Refinery Products -4.99 -1.70 -4.47 3.23 2.83 -2.16 -2.32 1.20 -5.47 -4.32 -2.46 4.23

Fertilizers 0.56 4.15 1.22 -0.68 -6.06 11.06 17.65 -1.02 -4.24 -4.34 -11.63 -7.01

Steel 3.91 3.14 3.44 4.79 5.37 3.05 -1.97 4.19 -3.35 9.10 3.97 2.27

Cement 4.23 1.11 1.45 2.27 0.04 6.65 8.70 13.56 16.45 10.29 3.21 -1.03

Electricity 5.88 6.73 5.73 10.45 5.36 11.20 6.30 15.65 11.20 12.64 3.78 13.25

Source: CSO, office of Economic Adviser Ministry of Commerce & Industry, IDBI Bank Ltd

Monthly Indicators(Base Year 2004-05)

INFLATION Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14

WPI Growth Rates Y-o-Y

Headline 7.5% 6.4% 5.1% 5.0% 6.0% 5.5% 6.2% 5.7% 5.4% 3.9% 2.4% 1.8%

Primary Articles 15.3% 10.8% 6.8% 6.3% 7.3% 7.0% 8.6% 7.0% 6.8% 3.7% 2.2% 1.4%

Fuel & Power 11.1% 10.9% 9.8% 8.7% 11.8% 9.3% 10.5% 9.0% 7.4% 4.5% 1.3% 0.4%

Manufactured Products 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 4.1% 3.7% 2.8% 2.4%

Total Food 13.6% 9.5% 6.1% 5.5% 7.0% 6.7% 7.5% 6.6% 7.1% 4.7% 3.4% 2.5%

Non-Food Manufactured Products 3.0% 3.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.0% 3.6% 2.8% 2.6%

Consumer Price Index (M-o-M)

General Index - Combined 1.3% -1.0% -0.4% -0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.9% 1.8% 0.9% 0.0% 0.1%

General Index - ExFood - Combined 0.6% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4%

Core Index - Combined 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.5% 7.5% 6.9% 6.0% 6.0%

General Index - Rural 1.6% -1.1% -0.6% -0.2% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 0.8% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1%

General Index - Urban 1.0% -0.8% -0.2% 0.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 0.9% 1.8% 0.8% -0.3% 0.1%

CPI Inflation (Y-o-Y)

General Index - Combined 11.2% 9.9% 8.8% 8.0% 8.3% 8.6% 8.3% 7.5% 8.0% 7.7% 6.5% 5.5%

General Index - ExFood - Combined 7.8% 7.9% 7.8% 7.5% 7.5% 7.4% 7.2% 6.9% 6.8% 6.3% 5.4% 5.4%

Core Index - Combined 8.0% 8.2% 8.2% 7.9% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.5% 7.5% 6.9% 6.0% 6.0%General Index - Rural 11.7% 10.5% 9.3% 8.4% 8.9% 9.2% 8.9% 7.9% 8.4% 8.3% 6.7% 5.5%

General Index - Urban 10.5% 9.1% 8.1% 7.6% 7.5% 7.7% 7.6% 6.8% 7.4% 7.0% 6.3% 5.6%

(Base Year 2004-05

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14


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4


Monthly Indicators

Source: DGCIFS, Controller General of Accounts (Ministry of Finance), IDBI Bank Ltd

External Sector Data Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14

Data in USD Million

Trade Balance -10002 -10285 -9493 -8191 -10468 -10161 -11235 -11763 -12229 -10839 -14247 -13357

Exports 23930 26400 26813 25296 29076 25628 27999 26480 27728 26958 28903 26094

Imports in USD Million 33704 36685 36307 33487 39544 35789 39233 38243 39956 37797 43151 39452

--Oil Imports 12976 13923 13187 13707 15779 12978 14465 13343 14355 12839 14497 12365

--Non-Oil Imports 20729 22762 23120 19780 23765 22811 24768 24900 25601 24958 28653 27086

Growth Rates M-o-M

Trade Defici t -5.6% 2.8% -7.7% -13.7% 27.8% -2.9% 10.6% 4.7% 4.0% -11.4% 31.5% -6.2%

Exports -12.9% 10.3% 1.6% -5.7% 14.9% -11.9% 9.3% -5.4% 4.7% -2.8% 7.2% -9.7%

Imports -11.5% 8.8% -1.0% -7.8% 18.1% -9.5% 9.6% -2.5% 4.5% -5.4% 14.2% -8.6%

--Oil Imports -15.1% 7.3% -5.3% 3.9% 15.1% -17.8% 11.5% -7.8% 7.6% -10.6% 12.9% -14.7%

--Non-Oil Imports -7.9% 9.8% 1.6% -14.4% 20.1% -4.0% 8.6% 0.5% 2.8% -2.5% 14.8% -5.5%

Growth Rates Y-o-Y

Trade Defici t -41.9% -41.5% -52.5% -42.0% 6.8% -42.5% -42.0% 4.3% -2.1% 1.4% 132.7% 26.1%

Exports 2.9% 3.7% 4.4% -5.1% -4.8% 5.2% 12.4% 10.2% 7.3% 2.4% 2.7% -5.0%

Imports -16.7% -14.8% -20.5% -17.9% -3.4% -14.8% -11.4% 8.3% 4.3% 2.1% 26.0% 3.6%

--Oil Imports -1.0% 1.2% -10.1% -3.0% 17.7% -0.6% 2.4% 10.9% 12.7% -15.0% 9.8% -19.1%

--Non-Oil Imports -24.2% -22.3% -23.2% -25.8% -13.7% -21.3% -17.9% 7.0% 1.2% 14.7% 36.4% 20.3%

Foreign Investment Inflows

Equity (Net, in USD Millions) 1301 2602 125 229 3297 1595 2354 2363 2189 887 845 -191

Debt (Net, in USD Millions) -957 858 2062 1825 1878 -1519 3347 2826 3829 2759 2615 2920

FISCAL INDICATORS (in Rs Cr) Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14

Revenue Receipts 46650 131242 87972 61690 231684 6929 31576 75922 61205 94823 147441 62177

Tax Receipts 39640 121495 58284 51189 188912 977 27674 70436 47778 38594 137732 45681

Non Tax Receipts 7010 9747 29688 10501 42772 5952 3902 5486 13427 56229 9709 16496

Non Debt Capital Receipts 865 4521 1729 1666 23194 144 853 320 2067 950 997 933

Recovery of Loans 865 680 1653 885 1926 144 853 211 2054 950 998 932

Other Receipts 0 3841 76 781 21268 0 0 109 13 0 -1 1

Total Receipts 47515 135763 89701 63356 254878 7073 32429 76242 63272 95773 148438 63110

Non-Plan Expenditure 76253 82325 88313 89982 119577 97500 123230 81067 70094 123204 120669 79333On Revenue Account 69699 69644 83270 85173 123445 91769 106072 76688 63519 117660 112494 73296

of which Interest Payments 30012 34030 36915 36465 55658 23284 31573 35837 27921 35261 31794 20304

On Capital Account 6554 12681 5043 4809 -3868 5731 17158 4379 6575 5544 8175 6037

of which loans disbursed 7 -376 381 -191 -9458 -40 10831 -837 -13 48 -239 254

Plan Expenditure 22933 60271 17840 39831 44151 23027 36582 52197 20243 45574 68666 20702

On Revenue Account 16960 39821 12310 32045 34172 16315 29429 43512 14747 35508 55236 16462

On Capital Account 5973 20450 5530 7786 9979 6712 7153 8658 5496 10066 13430 4240

of which loans disbursed 1992 1397 1098 2236 1919 1879 2108 1602 2033 1438 3292 656

Total Expendi ture 99186 142596 106153 129813 163728 120527 159812 133264 90337 168778 189335 100035

Fiscal Deficit 51671 6833 16452 66457 -91150 113454 127383 57022 27065 73005 40897 36925

Revenue Deficit 40009 -21777 7608 55528 -74067 101155 103925 44278 17061 58345 20289 27581

Primary Deficit 21659 -27197 -20463 29992 -146808 90170 95810 21185 -856 37744 9103 16621


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Y-o-Y GDP Indicators at Constant Prices (base 2004-05)

Balance of Payments Indicators (USD Millions)

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Quarterly Indicators

Source: CSO, RBI, IDBI Bank Ltd

Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1

Merchandise Trade -44511 -48645 -51647 -43849 -47793 -58378 -45635 -50484 -33305 -33152 -30668 -34648

Invisibles 13975 16108 17650 26756 26664 26608 27465 28695 28135 29054 29328 26788

Services 13992 16167 17521 14981 16328 16646 16960 16868 18371 18120 19605 17069

Transfers 15601 16410 16803 16664 15918 15762 15690 16658 16086 16380 16152 16413

Income -15617 -16468 -16674 -4889 -5582 -5800 -5185 -4831 -6322 -5446 -6430 -6694

Current Account -18880 -20160 -21710 -17093 -21129 -31770 -18170 -21789 -5170 -4097 -1340 -7860

Foreign Investment 5289 6861 15282 1899 15877 1 1887 1 7048 6263 1499 8456 10168 2 0607

Foreign Direct Investment 6485 4963 1356 3821 8159 2106 5733 6488 8101 6066 910 8168

Portfolio Investment -1196 1898 13926 -1922 7718 9781 11314 -225 -6602 2390 9258 12440

Loans 8498 1602 2737 5960 5152 10795 9218 3645 -473 3012 1579 1863

External Assisstance 291 1353 303 54 57 343 529 291 -163 -40 942 -50

Commercial Borrowings 5336 -327 2282 528 962 2773 4221 903 1552 4211 5111 1690

Short Term 2871 576 152 5378 4133 7679 4468 2451 -1862 -1159 -4474 222

Banking Capital 7049 -5487 1999 9408 5491 5243 -3572 10325 1162 15758 -1796 -115Rupee Debt Service -1 0 -47 -26 -1 0 -31 -25 -2 0 -24 -56

Other Capital -1284.43 4906.53 -3447 -706 -5774 3545 -2114 346 -6938 -3439 -730 -2470

Capital Account 19551 7883 16524 16535 20745 31470 20549 20554 -4752 23787 9195 19830

Errors & Omissions -394.57 -534.53 -552 1080 226 1081 302 889 -433 -586 -749 -791

Overall Balance of Payments 276 -12812 -5738 522 -158 781 2681 -346 -10355 19103 7106 11179

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

Agriculture, Forestr y & Fishing 6.7% 3.9% 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 1.6% 4.0% 5.0% 3.7% 6.3% 3.8% 3.2%

Industry 4.4% 4.4% -0.6% 0.1% 2.0% 2.0% -0.9% 1.8% -0.9% -0.5% 4.0% 1.2%

Mining & Quarrying -0.4% 7.5% -1.1% -0.1% -2.0% -4.8% -3.9% 0.0% -1.2% -0.4% 2.1% 1.9%

Manufacturing 4.5% 3.9% -1.1% 0.0% 2.5% 3.0% -1.2% 1.3% -1.5% -1.4% 3.5% 0.1%

Electricity, Gas & Water 9.7% 5.5% 4.2% 1.3% 2.6% 0.9% 3.8% 7.8% 5.0% 7.2% 10.2% 8.7%

Services 6.4% 6.0% 6.7% 6.5% 6.1% 5.8% 6.5% 6.1% 6.4% 5.8% 6.6% 6.8%

Construction 7.6% 5.8% 2.8% -1.9% 1.0% 2.4% 1.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.7% 4.8% 4.6%

Trade, Hotel, Transport & Comn 3.9% 3.1% 4.0% 5.6% 5.9% 4.8% 1.6% 3.6% 2.9% 3.9% 2.8% 3.8%

Fin, Ins, Real Estate & Bus Serv 11.0% 11.0% 11.7% 10.6% 10.2% 11.2% 12.9% 12.1% 14.1% 12.4% 10.4% 9.5%

Community, Soc & Per Services 4.7% 6.3% 7.6% 7.4% 4.0% 2.8% 10.6% 3.6% 5.7% 3.3% 9.1% 9.6%

GDP at Factor Cost 6.1% 5.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.7% 5.2% 4.6% 4.6% 5.7% 5.3%

Private Final Consumption Exp 11.9% 11.0% 5.0% 4.7% 5.1% 8.3% 5.6% 2.8% 2.8% 8.2% 5.6% 5.8%Govt Final Consumption Exp 6.3% 5.3% 10.2% 9.9% 4.5% 1.1% 12.9% -0.1% 3.6% -0.4% 8.8% 10.1%

Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2.7% 9.7% -4.1% -0.6% 4.4% 8.1% -2.8% 3.1% 0.2% -0.9% 7.0% 0.0%


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Table 10 |Official Rates in Select Countries

Country Benchmark Rate Last Change Date of Change

USA Fed Funds Rate 0%-0.25% -0.75% to -1.00% 16-Dec-08

UK Official Bank Rate 0.50% -0.50% 5-Mar-09

Euro Area Main Refinancing Rate 0.05% -0.10% 10-Sep-14

Japan Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate 0%-0.1% -0.10% 5-Oct-10

Australia Cash Rate Target 2.50% -0.25% 7-Aug-13

New Zealand Official Cash Rate 3.50% 0.25% 24-Jul-14

Canada Overnight Rate 1.00% 0.25% 8-Sep-10

Switzerland 3M CHF LIBOR Target Range 0%-0.25% -0.50% 3-Aug-11

Russia Key Rate 9.50% 1.50% 5-Nov-14

Brazil Selic Rate Target 11.75% 0.50% 3-Dec-14

China 1-year Lending Rate 5.60% -0.40% 21-Nov-14

South Korea Base Rate 2.00% -0.25% 15-Oct-14

India Repo Rate 8.00% 0.25% 28-Jan-14


monthly treasury update - november 2014.pdf

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