monte carlo methods
DESCRIPTION
Monte Carlo Methods. Focus on the Project: Enter mean time between arrivals for variable A in cell B31 of the sheet 1 ATM for the Excel file Queue Focus.xls. Monte Carlo Methods. Focus on the Project: - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Enter mean time between arrivals for variable A in cell B31 of the sheet 1 ATM for the Excel file Queue Focus.xls.
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• The formula in cell G35 of the sheet 1 ATM for the Excel file Queue Focus.xls needs to be changed
• Original:
=IF(ISNUMBER(F35),VLOOKUP(RANDBETWEEN(1,7634),
Data!$G$45:Data!$H$7678,2),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Change the numbers indicated to match your data
• Copy your new formula into cells G36:G194
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Note that my simulation (from my posted SampleData.xls) must accommodate 170 customers
• Drag the information in cells B195:C195 down until the last value in column B is one more than the number of customers (for me, 171)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Drag the information in cells E195:F195 down until the last values are at the same row as the values in columns B and C.
• Drag the information in cells G195:L195 down until the last values are one row above the values in columns E and F.
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:• The finished columns E through L should look like:
• Note: columns
E and F have one
extra cell
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cells Y351 and Y352 should be copied and pasted several times
• My simulation must accommodate 170 customers (compared to 160 from the original class file)
• This means I must copy and paste Y351 and Y352 ten times
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cell Y351 is blank, so new cells Y353, Y355, Y357, etc. will also be blank
• Cell Y352 contained the formula
=($F$194<=I35)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cell Y352 contained the formula =($F$194<=I35)
• Cell Y354 should have the formula =($F$195<=I35)• Cell Y356 should have the formula =($F$196<=I35)• Cell Y358 should have the formula =($F$197<=I35)• And so on … (Be careful, you must carefully change all of the
new formulas)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Finally, we need to modify the formulas in cells N35:S35
• N35 contains (# of customers plus 1)
=IF(MAX(E35:E195)=161,"Overflow",MAX(E35:E195))
(new ending cell in column E)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• O35 contains
=SUM(J35:J194)
(new ending cell in column J)
• P35 contains
=MAX(J35:J194)
(new ending cell in column J)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Q35 contains
=COUNTIF(K35:K194,”yes”)
(new ending cell in column K)
• R35 contains
=SUM(L35:L194)
(new ending cell in column L)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• S35 contains
=SUM(L35:L194)
(new ending cell in column L)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Note: the new formula in the new cells in column L need to be changed:
• Old formula: (cell L194) =IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($I$34:I193,,Y351:Y352),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cell L194 stays the same, all new cells afterward change
• Cell L195 orginially: =IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($I$34:I193,,Y352:Y353),"")
• Cell L195 new: =IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($I$34:I193,,Y353:Y354),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cell L196 orginially: =IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($I$34:I193,,Y353:Y354),"")
• Cell L196 new: =IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($I$34:I193,,Y355:Y356),"")
• The remaining values in the next L cell should start with the next odd number and finish with the next even number (i.e., Y357:Y358, then Y359:Y360, etc.)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Now run the simulation One_ATM (Tools, Macro, Macros)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• A summary of possible answers to five of the six claims appears in cells:
• P39 (Max waiting time)• S39 (Max number in queue)• U39 (Mean waiting time)• V39 (Percent delayed)• W39 (Mean number in queue)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• The final claim (percent irritated) must be answered and will be addressed later.
• Now modify the worksheet 2 ATMs
• Note: the following cells must be changed
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cell B30 (Mean arrival time)
• B195:C195 (Allowable customers – orig. 160 customers)
• Formulas from cells E194 and F194 need to be copied down
Monte Carlo Methods• Focus on the Project:
• Formulas from cells G194 through Q194 need to be copied down• You must fix the formulas in columns G, H and K
Column G:=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),VLOOKUP(RANDBETWEEN(1,7634),Data!
$G$45:Data!$H$7678,2),"")
Column H:=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($J$34:J193,,AG351:AG352),"")
Column K:=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($M$34:M193,,AJ351:AJ352),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Change all formulas in cells S35 through Z35
• In cell S35:=IF(MAX(E35:E195)=161,"Overflow",MAX(E35:E195))
• In cell T35:=SUM(N35:N194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• In cell U35:=MAX(N35:N194)
• In cell V35:=COUNTIF(O35:O194,"yes")
• In cell W35:=SUM(P35:P194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• In cell X35:=MAX(P35:P194)
• In cell Y35:=SUM(Q35:Q194)
• In cell Z35:=MAX(Q35:Q194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Copy down extra cells after AG351:AG352 and AJ351:AJ352
• Fix the formulas in the even cells (354, 356, 358, etc.)
• Run the macro Two_ATMs
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• A summary of possible answers to five of the six claims appears in cells:
• U39 (Max waiting time)• Z39 (Max present)• AB39 (Mean waiting time)• AC39 (Percent delayed)• AD39 (Mean number in queue)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• The final claim (percent irritated) must be answered and will be addressed later.
• Now modify the worksheet 3 ATMs
• Note: the following cells must be changed
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cell B30 (Mean arrival time)
• B195:C195 (Allowable customers – orig. 160 customers)
• Formulas from cells E194 and F194 need to be copied down
Monte Carlo Methods• Focus on the Project:
• Formulas from cells G194 through T194 need to be copied down• You must fix the formulas in columns G, H, K, and N
Column G:=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),VLOOKUP(RANDBETWEEN(1,7634),Data!
$G$45:Data!$H$7678,2),"")
Column H:=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($J$34:J193,,AJ351:AJ352),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
Column K:
=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($M$34:M193,,AM351:AM352),"")
Column N:
=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($P$34:P193,,AP351:AP352),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Change all formulas in cells V35 through AC35
• In cell V35:=IF(MAX(E35:E195)=161,"Overflow",MAX(E35:E195))
• In cell W35:=SUM(Q35:Q194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• In cell X35:=MAX(Q35:Q194)
• In cell Y35:=COUNTIF(R35:R194,"yes")
• In cell Z35:=SUM(S35:S194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• In cell AA35:=MAX(S35:S194)
• In cell AB35:=SUM(T35:T194)
• In cell AC35:=MAX(T35:T194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Copy down extra cells after AJ351:AJ352, AM351:AM352, and AP351:AP352
• Fix the formulas in the even cells (354, 356, 358, etc.)
• Run the macro Three_ATMs
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• A summary of possible answers to five of the six claims appears in cells:
• X39 (Max waiting time)• AC39 (Max present)• AE39 (Mean waiting time)• AF39 (Percent delayed)• AG39 (Mean number in queue)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• The final claim (percent irritated) must be answered and will be addressed later.
• Now modify the worksheet 3 ATMs Serpentine
• Note: the following cells must be changed
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Cell B30 (Mean arrival time)
• B195:C195 (Allowable customers – orig. 160 customers)
• Formulas from cells E194 and F194 need to be copied down
Monte Carlo Methods• Focus on the Project:
• Formulas from cells G194 through T194 need to be copied down• You must fix the formulas in columns G, H, K, and N
Column G:=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),VLOOKUP(RANDBETWEEN(1,7634),Data!
$G$45:Data!$H$7678,2),"")
Column H:=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($J$34:J193,,AJ351:AJ352),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
Column K:
=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($M$34:M193,,AM351:AM352),"")
Column N:
=IF(ISNUMBER(F194),DCOUNT($P$34:P193,,AP351:AP352),"")
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Change all formulas in cells V35 through AC35
• In cell V35:=IF(MAX(E35:E195)=161,"Overflow",MAX(E35:E195))
• In cell W35:=SUM(Q35:Q194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• In cell X35:=MAX(Q35:Q194)
• In cell Y35:=COUNTIF(R35:R194,"yes")
• In cell Z35:=SUM(S35:S194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• In cell AA35:=MAX(S35:S194)
• In cell AB35:=SUM(T35:T194)
• In cell AC35:=MAX(T35:T194)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Copy down extra cells after AJ351:AJ352, AM351:AM352, and AP351:AP352
• Fix the formulas in the even cells (354, 356, 358, etc.)
• Run the macro Three_ATMs_Serpentine
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• A summary of possible answers to five of the six claims appears in cells:
• X39 (Max waiting time)• AC39 (Max present)• AE39 (Mean waiting time)• AF39 (Percent delayed)• AG39 (Mean number in queue)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• The final claim (percent irritated) must be answered and will be addressed later.
• Save this document in one folder (do not change the name from Queue Focus.xls)
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:• Summary (9 am)
Mean Wait Time
Max Wait Time
Percent Delayed
Mean # in Queue
Max # in Queue
Percent Irritated
1 ATM 43.73 135.60 93.4% 37.6 112 TBD
2 ATMs 7.95 47.94 60.7% 7.1 67 TBD
3 ATMs 0.91 15.05 1.6% 1.0 29 TBD
3 ATMs Serp
0.80 12.15 1.0% 2.3 31 TBD
Claims 1.2 9.5 3.9% 8.5 30 3.0%
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Once you have saved the file in a folder, create a new folder for your 9 pm data
• Save the Queue Focus.xls file in your new folder
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:
• Modify the Queue Focus.xls file for your 9 pm data
• This only requires a change of the cell B31 (mean arrival) in the worksheet 1 ATM and a change of the cell B30 (mean arrival) in the worksheets 2 ATMs, 3 ATMs, and 3 ATMs Serpentine
Monte Carlo Methods
• Focus on the Project:• Summary (9 pm)
Mean Wait Time
Max Wait Time
Percent Delayed
Mean # in Queue
Max # in Queue
Percent Irritated
1 ATM 0.79 12.03 1.5% 0.9 10 TBD
2 ATMs 0.08 5.98 0.0% 0.5 6 TBD
3 ATMs 0.01 7.60 0.0% 0.0 6 TBD
3 ATMs Serp
0.01 1.91 0.0% 0.0 6 TBD
Claims 1.2 9.5 3.9% 8.5 30 3.0%