monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy...
DESCRIPTION
3 S -multidimensional random variable If the random vector Y has a multidimensional normal distribution thenTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Monitoring of a condition of Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the economic systems on the
basis of the analysis of basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropydynamics of entropy
A.N. Tyrsin1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva2
1 – Science and Engineering Center «Reliability and Resource of Large Systems and Machines», Ural Branch,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Ekaterinburg2 – Chelyabinsk Stat University, Chelyabinsk
![Page 2: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
2
Entropy role in difficult, open systems
Prigogine I.: Bifurcation – turning point in system development: choice from several new conditions; bifurcations are provoked by change of the operating parameter of system, entropy increase. Overcoming of a point of bifurcation is accompanied by decrease in entropy, self-organization.
Klimontovich U.L.: There is "a norm of a randomness" (entropy level) for normal functioning of system; deviations from norm mean "illness". If "treatment" approaches a condition of open system to norm, self-organization process takes place.
-------------------------------------------------------------------- Entropy characterizes system functioning.
![Page 3: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
3
S -multidimensional random variable
If the random vector Y has a
multidimensional normal distribution then
)..,,,( 21 mYYYY
RY ln21)()(
1
m
iiYHH
![Page 4: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
4
Entropy - probabilistic model
Y1
Y2
Y3
Y4Y5
growth points
31YYr
52YYr
53YYr
41YYr
42YYr
51YYr
21YYr
32YYr
43YYr
45YYr
H(Y2)
H(Y3)H(Y1)
H(Y5) H(Y4)
The Entropy - probabilistic model allows to allocate elements of difficult system and communication between them as separate variables
System and its components:
![Page 5: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
5
Statement 1. Let X1, X2 - two continuous random variables with the finite variances, defined on the all numerical axis and described by one-type distributions. Then
12, 2
2, 1, 2 – variances and parameters of scale of random variables X1 и X2.
1
2
1
212 lnln)()(
XHXH
![Page 6: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
6
Example 1. 1) For normally distributed random variables X1 and X2 with variances 1
2 and
22 the difference of entropies is equal
2) For exponential distributed random variables X1 and X2 with scale
parameters 1, 2 the difference of entropies is equal
3) Let's consider random variables X1 and X2, distributed under the lognormalny law with parameters of scale , and form parameter s. Entropy for the lognormalny law with scale parameters and form s is equal Taking into account that dispersion is
equal, receive
1
21212 ln)2ln()2ln()()(
eeXHXH
1
2121212 ln)ln()ln()ln()ln()()(
eeeeXHXH
11
e 22
e
)2ln()( esXH 22 22 )1( ss ee
1
2
1
21212 lnln)2ln()2ln()()(
esesXHXH
![Page 7: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
7
Statement 2. Let we have two systems of continuous random variables
and Then the difference of joint entropies of
system of random variables is equal
),...,,( )1()1(2
)1(1
)1(mYYYY ),...,,( )2(2(
2)2(
1)2(
mYYYY
m
k YYY
YYYm
k Y
Y
kk
kk
k
k
R
RHHH
22
.../
2.../
1
)1()2(
)1(1
)1(1
)1(
)2(1
)2(1
)2(
)1(
)2(
1
1ln
21ln)()()(
YYY
![Page 8: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
8
where
the coefficients of
determination of the corresponding dependences
2.../.../ )(
1)(
1)()()(
1)(
1)( 1 j
kjj
kj
kj
kjj
k YYYYYYYR
2.../ )(
1)(
1)( j
kjj
k YYYR
mk ...,,3,2 2,1j
![Page 9: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
9
Denoting
we will present the system as
where , it is the
increments of entropy at the expense of changes of dispersions and correlations of random variables .
m
k Y
Y
k
kH1 )1(
)2(
ln)(
ΣY
m
k YYY
YYY
kk
kk
R
RH
22
.../
2.../
)1(1
)1(1
)1(
)2(1
)2(1
)2(
1
1ln
21)( RY
RΣ YYY )()()( HHH
ΣY)(H RY)(H
![Page 10: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
10
The analysis of entropy-dynamic The analysis of entropy-dynamic model in economicsmodel in economics
There are following ideas in economics that are underlay in the practical application of entropy-dynamic model:
Hypothesis : The behavior of system can be considered as stochastic
Formation of system of signs by means of the factorial analysis
Monitoring of a condition of system in dynamics (analysis of change of entropy)
![Page 11: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
11
Example 2. Let's consider the list of macroeconomic indicators from the section "Main Socio-economic Indexes of the Russian Federation" annually published by the State committee on statistics of the Russian Federation of collections "Russia in Figures" from 2000 to 2011.
It was established on the basis of the factorial analysis that the initial system can be represented in the form of three factors (main components)
which are explained by 93,2% of all variation of initial signs. Factor: Y1 – national wealth, factor Y2 – deficiency (surplus) of
the budget taking into account a rate of national currency and unemployment rate in the country, factor Y3 – price index of producers of the industry.
),,( 321 YYYY
![Page 12: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
12
Then, let's carry out the comparative analysis of behavior of a macro system in two periods (before 2005 and after) on the basis of the analysis if entropy of a random vector.
Then we will receive
This result can testify to deterioration of macroeconomic indicators in the second period integrally, caused by the economic crisis in comparison with the fact that the first period was characterized by the growth of economic development of the country.
256,2084,1172,1)()()( RΣ YYY HHH
![Page 13: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
13
The analysis of change of each of a component shows that the growth of entropy of a randomness was affected mostly by the second element of the system (Y2) and on the increase in entropy of self-organization - weakening of the interaction between components Y1 and Y2.
![Page 14: Monitoring of a condition of economic systems on the basis of the analysis of dynamics of entropy A.N. Tyrsin 1, O.V. Vorfolomeeva 2 1 Science and Engineering](https://reader036.vdocuments.mx/reader036/viewer/2022062413/5a4d1b8a7f8b9ab0599be2ba/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
14
Entropy modeling of dynamics of stochastic system is offered. In it's basis there is a representation of the system in the form of the random vector. Each of vector's components presents a continuous random variable. This approach allows solving problems of monitoring of the condition of stochastic systems in economics.
Entropy - dynamic model doesn't show quantitative change of studied parameters, but gives deeper assessment of influence of this change. For example, if it is known that any average value of a quantitative index went down, then with the help entropy – dynamic the dynamic model could answer whether this decrease was uniform and organized or not.
Entropy-dynamic model investigates the system fully. Results can be received both on separate elements of the system, and on the whole system that is almost impossible to analyze at a quantitative assessment of indicators of system.
ConclusionsConclusions ::