Current and Potential Uses of Current and Potential Uses of Weather, Climate and Ocean Weather, Climate and Ocean

Information in Business Information in Business Decision-making the Recreation Decision-making the Recreation

and Tourism Industryand Tourism Industry

Monica Hale & Mary AltaloMonica Hale & Mary Altalo

Science Applications International Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC)Corporation (SAIC)

27 May 200227 May 2002

Investigation into the Use of Weather, Investigation into the Use of Weather, Climate and Ocean Information in the Climate and Ocean Information in the

Recreation and Tourism IndustryRecreation and Tourism Industry

Objectives of the Investigation:Objectives of the Investigation:

1.1. Assess the importance, complexity, drivers, Assess the importance, complexity, drivers, sophistication and skill of the industrysophistication and skill of the industry

2.2. Analyze the requirements and needs for Analyze the requirements and needs for environmental informationenvironmental information

3.3. Understand how the environmental information Understand how the environmental information is used in the industry operationsis used in the industry operations

4.4. Determine future interactions needs and usesDetermine future interactions needs and uses

Outline of PresentationOutline of Presentation

Background of the projectBackground of the project Findings of the Research: analysis of the Findings of the Research: analysis of the

Recreation and Tourism Sector’s needs for Recreation and Tourism Sector’s needs for weather, climate and ocean informationweather, climate and ocean information

Integrating environmental information into Integrating environmental information into business decision makingbusiness decision making

ConclusionsConclusions

ApproachApproach

How the investigation differs from previous How the investigation differs from previous assessmentsassessments– Scope Scope – Interviews and analysisInterviews and analysis– From user rather than provider perspective: demand pull From user rather than provider perspective: demand pull

vs. supply pushvs. supply push– ‘‘Tags’ the information and follows it through a business Tags’ the information and follows it through a business

transformation into the decision aidtransformation into the decision aid– In depth on a few rather than broad brushIn depth on a few rather than broad brush– Links transformed product to raw data- Links transformed product to raw data-

“INFOMORPHS”“INFOMORPHS”– Capacity building requirementsCapacity building requirements

TOURISM RECEIPTS AS PERCENT TOURISM RECEIPTS AS PERCENT

GNP AND EXPORTS; AND PER CAPITAGNP AND EXPORTS; AND PER CAPITA COUNTRYCOUNTRY % GNP% GNP COUNTRYCOUNTRY % %

EXPORTSEXPORTSCOUNTRYCOUNTRY PER CAPITA PER CAPITA

(US$)(US$)

MaldivesMaldives 99.199.1 Antigua & BarbudaAntigua & Barbuda 83.383.3 Antigua & Antigua & BarbudaBarbuda

4,0624,062

Antigua & BarbudaAntigua & Barbuda 83.383.3 St. LuciaSt. Lucia 63.463.4 AustriaAustria 1,8771,877

St. LuciaSt. Lucia 45.945.9 MaldivesMaldives 57.457.4 BarbadosBarbados 1,7881,788

SeychellesSeychelles 31.031.0 BarbadosBarbados 56.356.3 St. Kitts & St. Kitts & NevisNevis

1,5951,595

BarbadosBarbados 27.427.4 Dominican Dominican RepublicRepublic

48.648.6 MaltaMalta 1,5781,578

JamaicaJamaica 26.726.7 SeychellesSeychelles 43.243.2 St. LuciaSt. Lucia 1,3331,333

St. Vincent & St. Vincent & GrenadinesGrenadines

24.924.9 St. Vincent & St. Vincent & GrenadinesGrenadines

41.541.5 SwitzerlandSwitzerland 1,1091,109

BelizeBelize 24.424.4 BelizeBelize 38.038.0 DenmarkDenmark 728728

MaltaMalta 21.821.8 GrenadaGrenada 38.038.0 SpainSpain 567567

GrenadaGrenada 18.118.1 JamaicaJamaica 37.037.0 BelizeBelize 540540

Gambia, TheGambia, The 15.315.3 DominicaDominica 25.825.8 MaldivesMaldives 496496

FijiFiji 14.814.8 EgyptEgypt 25.225.2 IcelandIceland 496496

VanuatuVanuatu 14.314.3 FijiFiji 24.324.3 St. Vincent & St. Vincent & GrenadinesGrenadines

495495

Dominican Dominican RepublicRepublic

13.913.9 Gambia, TheGambia, The 24.024.0 IrelandIreland 463463

Source: IFC / World Bank/MIGA, 2000Source: IFC / World Bank/MIGA, 2000

Complexity

Environmental Information Environmental Information in Policy and Planning of the in Policy and Planning of the

Tourism IndustryTourism Industry

  State and local Planners,Regulators, International

 

Commercial Resort and Recreation Planners, Architects, Landscape Architects, Designers

   

Funders, Investors Owners,Shareholders, DevelopersFinance developments, Design facilities, Building and

Construction Financing

   

Builders, Construction companies, Port Developers

   

 Accommodation, Hotel managers, Franchises,

‘Chain’ operators, Restaurants,Cruise lines, Resort managers

 Support and Subsidiary Organizations

DMOs, Insurers, Retailers, Services (e.g. laundry)Business Consultants, Trainers, Research Organizations’

Industry Organizations, Trade Associations,NGOs

            

   

Recreation PlansBuilding Codes, Tax Rules

 

       

                   

                   

Strategic Planning

Tactical Planning

RECREATION & TOURISM INDUSTRY RECREATION & TOURISM INDUSTRY PERFORMANCE METRICS:PERFORMANCE METRICS:

Business Models - Statistical and ForecastBusiness Models - Statistical and Forecast

Revenue per available room (RevPar) Revenue per available room (RevPar) Accommodation sector Accommodation sector Occupancy rates Occupancy rates Accommodation sectorAccommodation sector Occupancy percentageOccupancy percentage Accommodation sectorAccommodation sector Average Daily Rates (ADR)Average Daily Rates (ADR) Accommodation sectorAccommodation sector Comparative Operating Rates (COR) Comparative Operating Rates (COR) Accommodation sectorAccommodation sector Gross Operating Profit (% before fees)Gross Operating Profit (% before fees) Across the industryAcross the industry Economic Impact AssessmentEconomic Impact Assessment Across the industryAcross the industry

- Financial rate of Return (FRR)- Financial rate of Return (FRR)- Economic Rate of Return (ERR)- Economic Rate of Return (ERR)

International arrivals International arrivals Travel sectorTravel sector Journeys madeJourneys made Travel sectorTravel sector

  

Environmental Information in the Environmental Information in the Operational Business ModelsOperational Business Modelso Average daily temperatureAverage daily temperatureo Average Annual temperatureAverage Annual temperatureo January rainfall in inchesJanuary rainfall in incheso July rainfall in inchesJuly rainfall in incheso Number of Heating degree-days (Last 30 years)Number of Heating degree-days (Last 30 years)o Number of Cooling degree-days (Last 30 years)Number of Cooling degree-days (Last 30 years)o Wind speed in Miles per Hour (Annual average)Wind speed in Miles per Hour (Annual average)o Annual number of days sunny or partly sunnyAnnual number of days sunny or partly sunnyo Elevation (Mean feet above sea level)Elevation (Mean feet above sea level)o Wave heightWave heighto Ocean current speed and directionOcean current speed and direction

Hotels, Resorts and Theme ParksHotels, Resorts and Theme Parks • Investment decisionsInvestment decisions• Finance and budgetingFinance and budgeting• Siting of Hotel and Resort DevelopmentSiting of Hotel and Resort Development• Design and landscapingDesign and landscaping• Construction and property maintenanceConstruction and property maintenance• EngineeringEngineering• Risk AssessmentRisk Assessment• Public Relations / Marketing / CommunicationsPublic Relations / Marketing / Communications• Specialist Resorts and PursuitsSpecialist Resorts and Pursuits

a)      operationsa)      operations b)      marketingb)      marketing

• Regulatory complianceRegulatory compliance

Recreation and Tourism Facility Recreation and Tourism Facility Insurers and BrokersInsurers and Brokers

• Specifying structural requirements. Specifying structural requirements. • Setting conditions of insurance. Setting conditions of insurance. • Provision of ‘Alert’ servicesProvision of ‘Alert’ services• Setting ‘premiums’ Setting ‘premiums’ • Establishing ‘trends’ for basic losses and Establishing ‘trends’ for basic losses and

catastrophe losses catastrophe losses

Marine Transportation, Cruise Lines & AviationMarine Transportation, Cruise Lines & Aviation • Ship deployment schedules Ship deployment schedules • Routing decisions or re-routing alterations Routing decisions or re-routing alterations • Calculation of the weight and balance of aircraftCalculation of the weight and balance of aircraft• New airports to fly fromNew airports to fly from• Temperature (air is denser at higher temperatures so the Temperature (air is denser at higher temperatures so the

weight ratios are calculated accordingly)weight ratios are calculated accordingly)• Calculating percentage cost built in to the ticket price Calculating percentage cost built in to the ticket price

to cover added costs of poor weather conditions (From to cover added costs of poor weather conditions (From one to three percent additional costs are usually one to three percent additional costs are usually attributable to weather conditions)attributable to weather conditions)

• Fog and high winds adversely affect ports and airportsFog and high winds adversely affect ports and airports

..

MinutesMinutes

HoursHours

DaysDays

6 6 –– 10 Days10 Days

8 8 –– 14 Days14 Days

MonthsMonthsSeasonsSeasons YearsYears Forecast

UncertaintyForecast

Uncertainty

Fo

reca

st U

nc

erta

inty

Fo

reca

st U

nc

erta

inty

Forecast Lead TimeForecast Lead Time••Building energy Building energy mngtmngt..••Disaster risk Disaster risk mngtmngt..••Daily staff briefingsDaily staff briefings••Daily guest informationDaily guest information••“Intelligent” infrastructure“Intelligent” infrastructure••CruiseshipCruiseship positioningpositioning••SnowmakingSnowmaking

••Fuel supply procurementFuel supply procurement••Backup generation plansBackup generation plans••Marketing (brochure , Marketing (brochure , radio, ) developmentradio, ) development••Annual insurance reviewAnnual insurance review••Inventory managementInventory management••Cruiseline destination Cruiseline destination planningplanning••Convention “bidding”Convention “bidding”••Premium/deductible Premium/deductible settingsetting

••Hotel group managementHotel group management••Cruise ship routing & ETACruise ship routing & ETA••Outdoor activities planningOutdoor activities planning•• Transportation logisticsTransportation logistics••Maintenance schedulingMaintenance scheduling••Staff schedulingStaff scheduling••“Conditions” forecasts“Conditions” forecasts

••Sales/earnings forecastingSales/earnings forecasting••Stock pricingStock pricing••Food service/supply procurementFood service/supply procurement••Group properties budgetingGroup properties budgeting••Unit price setting Unit price setting ••Rev par estimationRev par estimation••Seasonal “occupancy” forecastsSeasonal “occupancy” forecasts••Delivery rate settingDelivery rate setting••Compliance reportingCompliance reporting

••Infrastructure designInfrastructure design••Landscape designLandscape design••Access planningAccess planning••Regional infrastructure planRegional infrastructure plan••New hotel capacity plansNew hotel capacity plans••Mitigation strategy designMitigation strategy design••Infrastructure sitingInfrastructure siting••Building code settingBuilding code setting••Development Master Development Master planning and revisitplanning and revisit\\••Regional Policy plansRegional Policy plans••Federal Policy DevelopmentFederal Policy Development

Recreation/ Tourism Operations Aided Recreation/ Tourism Operations Aided by Reductions in Environmental by Reductions in Environmental Forecast Uncertainty Forecast Uncertainty

Weather and Sea Conditions Information in the Weather and Sea Conditions Information in the Cruise line Management Chain:Tactical PlanningCruise line Management Chain:Tactical Planning

Nautical Operations Manager

President

HQ

At-Sea Vessel Captain

Housekeeping department

Information sources

NWS/NCEP

•NWS/NCEP•Other ships•Coast Guard•CNN•Internet (maps)•1-800-roll call•radio station•METEO

•METEO•Other ships

Decisions

Advisory and Tracking

•Course Determination•Safety Procedures

Weather Information Flow in A Coastal Hotel Risk Management Chain

Regional Technical Services Director

Safety Security Committee

Designated Safety Officer

Individual Staff Responsibilities

Hotel General Manager

Hotel Technical Services

Director, Environmental Risk

Location

HQ

Regional

Hotel Site

Management Information Source

NWS/NCEP

NWS/NCEP

NWS/LFO

Insurers

Decision/Action

Advise group of Potential Threat

•Decision to Implement EP Plan•General Mobilization Order•Communications and Tracking

Oversee Technical Services Responses

•Inform EP Plan Activated•Check Structures in Place

•Oversee all EP actions•Coordinate pre-designated assignments

•Implement EP areas of responsibilities

Local WeatherProviders.

Local Emerg.Ofc.

Next StepsNext Steps

Industry Trials Pilot Roundtable

Partnership Project