Monetary policy update

April 2011

The Swedish economy remains strong

Continued strong growth in Sweden

Sources Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankGDP, quarterly changes in per cent, calculated as an annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

-16

-12

-8

-4

0

4

8

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Mean 2000-2010

Strong exports and domestic demand

Annual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Export

Investments

Consumption

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Labour market situation improving

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankUnemployment, percentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

80 85 90 95 00 05 10

Unemployment, 16-64 years

Unemployment, 15-74 years

Continued strong growth abroad

Sources: IMF and the RiksbankGDP, annual percentage change. IMF’s April forecast for Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Euro area

USA

BRIC

World

Uncertainty in the world economy

Natural disaster in Japan

Fiscal problems in the euro area

Political unease in North Africa and the Middle East

High energy and commodity prices

Sources: Intercontinental exchange and the RiksbankBrent crude oil, USD per barrel. Forward rates calculated as a 15-day average.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

OutcomeForwards, average, up to 12 April 2011Forwards, average, up to 9 February 2011

Low underlying inflation

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankAnnual percentage change. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

CPIF

CPIF excluding energy

Rising mortgage rates give high CPI inflation

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

CPI

CPIF

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the RiksbankAnnual percentage change. The CPIF is the CPI with a fixed mortgage rate.

Increasing short-term inflation expectations

Annual percentage change. Inflation expectations refer to all participants. Surveys December 2010 and March 2011..

Sources: TNS SIFO Prospera, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

CPI

CPIF

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 12 14 16

CPI CPIF1 year (December) 1 year (March)2 years (December) 2 years (March)5 years (December) 5 years (March)

A forecast not a promise

Source: The RiksbankRepo rate, percentage, quarterly averages

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

90%75%50%OutcomeForecast

The Swedish economy remains strong