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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
1
Monetary Policy ReviewJune 2010
The Monetary Policy Review (MPR) is published monthly by Bank
Indonesia after the Board of Governors’ Meeting each February,
March, May, June, August, September, November, and December.
This report is intended as a medium for the Board of Governors
of Bank Indonesia to present to the public the latest evaluation of
monetary conditions, assessment and forecast for the Indonesian
economy, in addition to the Bank Indonesia monetary policy
response published quarterly in the Monetary Policy Report in
January, April, July, and October. Specifically, the MPR presents an
evaluation of the latest developments in inflation, the exchange
rate, and monetary conditions during the reporting month and
decisions concerning the monetary policy response adopted by
Bank Indonesia.
Board of Governors
Darmin Nasution Deputy Governor Senior
Hartadi A. Sarwono Deputy Governor
Siti Ch. Fadjrijah Deputy Governor
S. Budi Rochadi Deputy Governor
Muliaman D. Hadad Deputy Governor
Ardhayadi Mitroatmodjo Deputy Governor
Budi Mulya Deputy Governor
Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
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Table of Contents
I. Monetary Policy Statement ..........................................................3
II. The Economy and Monetary Policy ..............................................6
Economy Growth in Indonesia ...............................................................8
Inflation ..........................................................................................10
Rupiah Exchange Rate ....................................................................11
Monetary Policy ..............................................................................13
Interest Rates ...............................................................................13
Deposits, Credits, and Money Supply ...........................................15
The Stock Market ........................................................................16
The Government Securities Market ..............................................17
Mutual Funds Market ..................................................................18
Banking Conditions .....................................................................18
III. Monetary Policy Response ..........................................................19
Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
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I. MONETARY POLICY STATEMENT
Global indicators point to continued progress in world economic recovery despite heightened risks on global financial markets from the Greek debt crisis. Reflecting this was improvement in advanced
economies, led by the US and Japan, alongside the brisk economic growth
in emerging market nations. In the US, improving economic conditions
are visible in strengthening domestic demand and rising imports. The
European economy is also regaining ground, as reflected in slower
contraction of retail sales, expansion in industry and rising consumer
confidence. In Japan, improvement in the economy is being driven more by
exports. China remains the leading growth economy among the emerging
markets, despite initial signs of slowing in response to tightened lending.
The present recovery in the global economy now faces risks from the debt
crisis that has now hit a number of European nations and is ongoing.
The continued strength of global economic recovery has been matched by steady improvement in the Indonesian economy.
Exports are forging ahead, buoyed by more optimistic developments
in manufactured exports in keeping with the more upbeat condition
of the global economy. Industries reporting significant growth include
textiles, garments, transportation equipment and the chemicals subsector.
Production has responded to rising exports with increased utilisation,
particularly in export-oriented industries. Investment is also picking up
as reflected in the rising imports of raw materials and capital goods as
well as rising cement and industrial electricity consumption. In analysis
by sector, economic performance was driven mainly by significantly
gains in the trade, hotels and restaurants (THR) sector. Performance in
THR was also bolstered by activity in other sectors, such as agriculture,
manufacturing and imports. Outside the THR sector, another vibrant area
of activity was the transport and communications sector. The upbeat pace
of economic activity is supported by higher levels of bank financing, mainly
in investment credit.
Prices movements indicated subdued inflationary pressure during May 2010. Inflation was driven mainly by the volatile foods category
(rice and miscellaneous seasonings) as a result of disruptions in supply
and distribution. On the other hand, only mild inflationary pressure was
recorded in core items and administered prices. The absence of strategic
Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
4
price decisions by the government helped maintain low inflationary
pressure in administered prices. Inflation in the consumer price index
(CPI) reached 0.29% (mtm) or 4.16% (yoy). These developments brought
inflation for the January to May 2010 period to 1.44% (ytd).
Indonesia’s balance of payments showed solid performance in estimated figures despite heightened uncertainties over the Greek debt crisis. The robust condition of Indonesia’s economic fundamentals
again contributed to the strong balance of payments. The ongoing
improvement in domestic economic performance and outlook has helped
attract foreign direct investment (FDI). In the current account, the more
vigorous growth in export revenues compared to imports produced a
surplus. Export revenues during the first 4 months of 2010 came close to
levels preceding the 2008 crisis, despite slowing growth in April 2010. The
steepest fall in April 2010 was recorded in exports to Europe, which came
down 23%. Among Indonesia’s leading export commodities to Europe,
crude palm oil (CPO) plunged significantly as a result of environmental
campaigns by NGOs in Europe that have prompted a boycott of CPO
products from Indonesia. In the capital and financial account, inflows of
portfolio capital were impacted by negative sentiment over the European
debt crisis. In response, international reserves at 31 May 2010 stood at
74.6 billion US dollars, equivalent to 5.87 months of imports and servicing
of official foreign debt.
Widespread uncertainty on global financial market over the debt crisis in some European economies put added pressure on exchange rates in emerging Asia, including Indonesia. This brought a halt to
the appreciating trend in the rupiah under way since early 2010. During
May, the average value of the rupiah was down 1.52% at Rp 9,167 to the
US dollar compared to Rp 9,028 to the US dollar one month earlier. With
financial markets in the region still susceptible to negative sentiment from
various quarters, the rupiah closed lower at Rp 9,175 to the US dollar,
having sustained 1.77% correction from the previous month’s close. Even
so, when compared to the end of 2009, the rupiah still managed 2.53%
appreciation in monthly average level or 2.72% gain point to point.
The turmoil on global financial markets has also dented financial market performance in Indonesia. Negative sentiment was sparked by
pessimism among financial market actors over efforts to resolve the debt
problems of the PIIGS nations (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain).
Slow responses in resolving the crisis exacerbated risks and uncertainties
Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
5
on financial markets. Global liquidity is tightening further with the effects
felt most in Europe due to downgrading of some sovereign ratings that
has triggered decline in asset values and heightened counterparty risks.
Reflecting the crunch on global money markets is the widening spread in
the 3-month tenor Overnight Index Swap (OIS) over the 3-month LIBOR.
This ultimately triggered flight to quality by foreign investors and sent
share prices tumbling in almost all markets in the region. As a result, the
JSX Composite Index (JCI) sustained 5.8% correction to close at 2,796.96
at end-May 2010. During May 2010, share volume averaged Rp 5.1 trillion
in daily trading, largely unchanged from Rp 5.2 trillion the month before.
The financial market turmoil during May 2010 has also begun spreading to
the market for Indonesian government securities, as evident in increased
yield evenly distributed across all tenors.
From the micro banking perspective, conditions in the banking system are comfortably secure alongside improvement in the bank intermediary function. Banking system stability in Indonesia is
now sufficiently robust to anticipate contagion from the debt crisis in
Europe. This is borne out in the high capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for the
banking system, reported in the most recent data at 19.2%, in addition
to the subdued level of non-performing loans (NPLs) gross at below 5%.
Improvement in the bank intermediation function is reflected in credit
expansion, recorded as of end-May 2010 at 17.6% (yoy). This credit
growth remains within the limits of the lending plans described in Bank
Business Plans and is consistent with the growing confidence of economic
actors in the improving outlook for the Indonesian economy.
In the Board of Governors Meeting convened on 3 June 2010, Bank Indonesia decided to hold the BI Rate at 6.5%. This decision was
taken after a comprehensive evaluation of the latest developments and
outlook for the economy, which is now showing steady improvement. In
the opinion of the Board of Governors, the BI Rate at this level is consistent
with achievement of the 5%±1% inflation target in 2010 and 2011 and
remains conducive to strengthening the process of economic recovery. This
decision is also consistent with measures to safeguard domestic financial
stability amid the escalation of risks and uncertainties caused by the debt
crisis in Greece and a number of other European nations.
Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
6
II. THE ECONOMY AND MONETARY POLICY
Developments in the world economy again point to buoyant recovery led by the vibrant economies of Asia. The gathering
momentum of global economic recovery is manifested in the upward
revision of the OECD global economic outlook and the more upbeat
Consensus Forecast. The pace of world growth is not only bolstered by
performance in developing nations, but also by the increasingly solid
improvement in the economies of the US and Japan. So far, no indications
suggest that the European debt crisis has dented the still robust outlook
for global economic recovery. China’s economy continues to chart high
growth despite early sings of slowing activity reflected in the declining
pace of bank lending and imports. In Europe, economic fundamentals
now show improvement despite the challenges posed by soaring
unemployment and the potential for the Greek fiscal crisis to spill over to
other European nations.
The US economy is steadily improving on the strength of a solid manufacturing sector. The upbeat recovery in the industry sector is
driven by high demand for exports and low inventory levels reflected in
higher capacity utilisation and US production indices. Mounting activity
in US manufacturing has also resulted in positive figures in US non-farm
payrolls for 4 consecutive months (Graph 2.1), a development that in turn
reinforces consumer confidence. On the consumption side, the positive
trend in retail sales also offers confirmation of consumer optimism.
The Japanese economy is reporting more solid growth in line with more vigorous export performance. Driving the economic growth in
Japan is rapid growth in the country’s exports in response to the brisk
pace of recovery in Asia and mounting volume of world trade. Stronger
exports have provided a boost to Japanese manufacturing activity. In a
similar vein, rising household prosperity has encouraged greater household
consumption, visible in the strengthening indicators for retail sales and
consumer confidence (Graph 2.2). However, the improvement in the
Japanese economy has yet to be fully transmitted to the labour market.
Unemployment in Japan edged upwards to 5.1% in April 2010.
In Europe, economic conditions continue to improve. Indications
point to a turnaround in European household consumption, reflected in
the upward trend in the consumer confidence index as retail sales show Graph 2.1 US Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
7
less decline. Despite this, improvements in household consumption remain
daunted by high unemployment levels in Europe and the shaky condition
of Europe’s banking system1. Government expenditure cutbacks under
austerity programmes are likely to fuel labour unrest and weaken the
economies of Europe. In manufacturing, the weakening trend in the euro
can boost the fortunes of European industry and especially export-oriented
manufacturing. The solid condition of European industry is also confirmed
by the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) survey with manufacturing and
services in an expansionary phase and industrial production on the rise.
Despite this, the fiscal crisis in the PIGS countries (Portugal, Italy, Spain and
Greece) has begun taking a significant toll on financial markets in Europe
and worldwide. The growing potential for economic decline in Europe has
even ignited fears of contagion spreading through the world economy as
a whole.
Global inflationary pressures mounted higher, mainly from the contributions of developing economies. The forecast for year 2010
inflation in advanced nations edged up slightly in May to 1.57% (yoy),
while inflation in the developing world also mounted to 5.36% (yoy) from
5.30% (yoy) one month earlier. The brisk pace of economic improvement
in developing and advanced nations, led by the US and Japan, led to rising
inflationary pressure in comparison to preceding months.
Most advanced nations have maintained an accommodative monetary policy stance with the notable exception of the tight bias in Australia. During May 2010, almost all central banks in the developed
world decided to stay the course in monetary policy given subdued levels
of inflationary pressure and to bolster economic activity. Some central
banks even reinstituted quantitative easing programmes, such as dollar
swaps provided by the Fed, purchase of securities (ECB) and liquidity
injections by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) aimed at calming liquidity turmoil. In
Australia, the overnight cash rate was raised for the third time in 2010 by
25 bps to 4.50% in an effort to curb the asset price bubble in the housing
sector and domestic inflationary pressure.
In Asia, some nations have begun normalising their policies in efforts to curb inflationary pressure and asset price bubbles. The
Graph 2.2 Japan Retail Sales & Unemployment
1 The precarious condition of European banks is illustrated by the bankruptcy of Spain’s Bank Cajasur under the weight of burgeoning NPLs. Besides this, the close interconnection among the nations within the European banking system has fuelled concerns over the potential for systemic risk in European banks.1
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Graph 2.3 Growth of Vehicle Sales
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
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central bank of China raised its reserve requirement by a further 50 bps to
17.0% for major banks and 15.0% for minor banks. In a similar move, the
Malaysian central bank hiked its reference rate by 25 bps to 2.50%.
Economic Growth in IndonesiaIn Q2/2010, the Indonesian economy is expected to maintain growth in line with forecasted levels. The economic crisis in Europe
is predicted to have only limited impact on the domestic economy, due
to Indonesia’s robust economic fundamentals. On the demand side,
growth will remain predominantly demand-driven with a larger than
expected contribution from external demand. Household consumption is
forecasted to rise in keeping with buoyant public purchasing power and
the upbeat trend in consumer confidence. Brisk growth in investment is
predicted in response to stronger demand in trading partner nations, a
conducive domestic investment climate and the launching of government
infrastructure projects. However, this strong boost for investment growth is
based primarily on the upbeat growth trend in exports as world economic
conditions continue to improve. This will also generate added momentum
in import growth. On the supply-side, the stronger sectoral performance
in Q1/2010 is predicted to carry forward into Q2/2010, particularly in
agriculture, trade and manufacturing. The miscellaneous sector is also
forecasted to maintain brisk growth.
Household consumption in Q2/2010 is predicted to remain strong.
The buoyant growth in household consumption is supported by a range
of leading consumption indicators. The rise in household consumption
is thought to originate from non-food consumption, as indicated by the
upward trend in motor vehicle sales (Graph 2.3), electronics sales (Graph
2.4), retail indices for various commodities and imports of non-food
consumer items as of April 2010. In regard to financing, potential for
increased household consumption is also indicated by high growth in real
M1 growth, real consumption credit and debit/credit card transactions
(Graph 2.5). The upward trend in household consumption is also
supported by the 5% hike in civil servant, military and police salaries and
in the regional minimum wage for 2010. Added boost for household
consumption is also expected from the election of regional heads of
government in 2010. In related developments, consumer confidence
improved slightly in keeping with stronger consumer confidence in the
Graph 2.4 Sales of Electronic Products
Graph 2.5 Growth of Transaction Value using Debit and Credit Card
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Graph 2.6 Consumer Confidence Index - BI’s Consumer Survey
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
9
condition of the economy and future income expectations. Indications of
this are evident in the continued optimism of the May 2010 Consumer
Confidence Index (BI Consumer Survey) even though slightly lower at 0.8
points compared to the previous month (Graph 2.6).
Investment is projected to maintain an upward trend in response to buoyant household consumption and a conducive investment climate. Key to investment growth in Q2/2010 is construction investment
supported by the increased pace of work in the construction sector and
infrastructure projects (Graph 2.7). This is also demonstrated in the high
levels of cement consumption during April 2010 (Graph 2.8). Similarly,
improvement in non-construction investment is indicated by increases in
capital goods imports, raw material imports, commercial vehicle sales and
business electricity consumption as of March 2010. Lower interest rates on
investment credit during Q1/2010 offer potential for accelerating the pace
of investment growth.
In view of the positive business sentiment and global consumer confidence, exports are predicted to stay upbeat during Q2/2010 despite some slowing from the preceding quarter. In Q2/2010, the
Baltic Dry Index and export commodity prices climbed by 28.6% (yoy)
and 26.6% (yoy), having slowed considerably from the previous quarter’s
levels of 94.05% (yoy) and 25.3% (yoy). The more modest increases
in export commodity prices are consistent with the slowing trend in
international commodity prices during Q2/2010 triggered by the crisis in
Europe. Nevertheless, this decline was not as serious as predicted due to
the upward trend in the production indices in major destination countries
and positive business sentiment in major export destinations. Further
improvement in export growth is predicted for Q2/2010, led by mining and
manufactured exports to the US, Europe and China.
The Q2/2010 forecast for imports is brisk growth on the strength of improving domestic demand and keen external demand. This
outlook is supported by movement in leading indicators showing that
imports have entered an expansionary phase. Higher imports are also
suggested by rising import VAT revenues (Graph 2.10) and demand
for imports from major countries of origin. The largest proportion of
Indonesia’s imports originate from Japan and China. In disaggregation by
merchandise category, the increase is explained primarily by higher imports
of consumer goods, followed by raw materials and lastly by increased
imports of capital goods.
Graph 2.7 Building and Non-Building Investment Growth
Graph 2.8 Investment Indicators
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Graph 2.9 World Trade Volume, Baltic Dry Index, Export
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
10
Sectoral performance in Q2/2010 is predicted to chart higher growth, marked by improvement in both tradable and non-tradable sectors. Manufacturing growth is forecasted to gain momentum driven by
the robust growth in the transportation equipment and cement subsectors.
Despite this, manufacturing faces pressure from the impact of ACFTA on
some subsectors and a planned hike in electricity billing rates. Growth is
also expected to taper off in food and beverages in the wake of the surge
in this subsector fuelled by the election activities of last year. However,
stronger growth is forecasted in the non-tradable sectors. Trade, which
represents the most important activity in non-tradable sectors, is set to
maintain vigorous growth as indicated by the brisk pace of imports.
InflationInflation remained subdued in May 2010 despite resurgence triggered by non-fundamentals involving mainly volatile foods.
Monthly CPI inflation reached 0.29% (yoy) or 4.16% (yoy), up from 0.15%
(yoy) and 3.91% (yoy) recorded one month earlier. The unabated price
increases in miscellaneous seasonings have boosted inflationary pressure.
Supply disruptions triggered by crop failures caused by poor rainfall in
some horticultural centres are thought to be one reason for the high rate
of inflation in this category. Contrasting this was stable movement in the
administered prices category. In analysis of fundamentals, core inflation
was curbed slightly by the rise in gold prices in keeping with developments
on international commodity markets. Nevertheless, core items still recorded
low levels of inflation, also marked by decline. Key to this are secure public
expectations of inflation and the modest impact of demand pressure on
prices.
Disaggregated by expenditure categories, CPI inflation in May 2010 was fuelled mainly by foodstuffs (Graph 2.12). The surge in
the foodstuffs index is explained by high pressure from seasonings. Also
generating significant upward pressure in CPI inflation was the clothing
category with a contribution of 0.08%.
Administered prices generated minimal inflationary pressure during the month in the absence of decisions to raise prices for strategic administered commodities. Inflationary pressure in this category resulted
in part from increases in cigarette prices, including clove filter cigarettes
at 0.41% (mtm). So far in 2010, cigarettes have accounted for a 0.13%
Graph 2.10 Import VAT
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Graph 2.11 Inflation
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Graph 2.12 Inflation by Category of Goods and Services (%, mtm)
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
11
contribution to inflation. In other areas, the smooth implementation of
the household fuels conversion programme has helped curb inflation in
administered prices. Taken together, administered prices in May 2010
registered low inflation at 0.15% (qtq) or 2.50% (yoy).
The volatile foods category underwent inflation prompted by disruptions in production and distribution of a number of miscellaneous seasonings. Increases in rice prices, on the other hand,
were quite modest. Prices for red chilli peppers, hot chilli peppers and garlic
climbed significantly during the month under review (Graph 2.13). Since
the end of 2009, red chilli peppers and garlic have generated significant
pressure in the volatile foods category. Inflation in garlic prices soared
to as much as 233.52% in May 2010. Indonesia is highly dependent on
garlic imports from China, which supply for 90% of domestic demand. At
this time, China’s production of various foodstuff items, including garlic,
is in decline as a result of weather disturbances that have brought on
harvest failure. This has prompted the Chinese government to give priority
to supplying domestic needs over exports. At the same time, rice prices
have mounted due to the delayed harvest in some cultivation centres and
hindrances to distribution outside individual local areas. During the month
under review, prices for rice edged upwards by 0.12% (Graph 2.14). Prices
for rice also climbed in response to reduced stocks of dry unhulled rice at
the farmer level and tighter supply of rice drawn from the “rice for the
poor” (raskin) programme. Taken together, the volatile foods category
recorded inflation at 0.57% (yoy) or 7.29% (yoy), up from 0.34% (yoy) and
6.39% (yoy) in the preceding month.
Core inflationary pressure was low and stable, a result of subdued inflation expectations and modest demand-side pressure. During
May 2010, core inflation reached 0.25% (mtm), up from 0.15% (mtm) one
month earlier. The resurgent core inflation is explained largely by higher
gold prices in keeping with the escalating international market prices for
this commodity. Core inflation remains low, having maintained downward
trend since the start of the year, and currently stands at 3.81% (yoy).
Rupiah Exchange RateThe appreciating trend in the rupiah since early 2010 halted due to outflows of foreign portfolio capital. The heavy pressure bearing
down on global financial markets from the debt crisis and fiscal crisis in
Graph 2.14 Volatile Food Inflation and Rice
Graph 2.13 Herbs and Spices Inflation
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Graph 2.15 Volatile Food and Several Main Commodities Inflation
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
12
some European nations triggered a round of risk aversion towards assets
on emerging markets, including Indonesia. Under these conditions, the
combination of positive fundamentals in the Indonesian economy and
attractive investment returns failed to stem outflows of foreign capital
from the domestic financial market. During May 2010 the average
rupiah exchange rate weakened 1.52% to Rp 9,167 to the US dollar
from Rp 9,028 to the US dollar in the preceding month (Graph 2.17). At
month-end, the rupiah shed 1.77% (ptp) of its value from the previous
monthly close, reaching Rp 9,175 to the US dollar. In response to these
developments, the average value of the rupiah from beginning of year to
May 2010 reached Rp 9,192 to the US dollar. The weakening of the rupiah
was also accompanied by increased fluctuation at 0.69% (Graph 2.18).
Capital reversal brought on by declining investor risk appetite triggered significant depreciation in the rupiah. Flight to quality, with
investors migrating to US dollar-denominated assets, has driven up the
value of the US dollar. In contrast, Asian currencies weakened across the
board against the US dollar (Graph 2.19). Despite this, the fundamentals
of the domestic economy remain solid. Economic growth is forecasted to
gain further momentum while the current account will continued to post
a surplus. The solid performance in Indonesia’s exports has potential to
increase the supply of foreign exchange on the domestic market and thus
bolster the resilience of the domestic economy to external shocks.
Fears over contagion from the European crisis triggered a rise in Indonesia’s risk indicators albeit within a limited range. The EMBIG
spread was recorded at 324 bps during the month, up from the previous
month’s spread of 260 bps (Graph 2.21). The yield spread on Indonesia
global bonds over US T-Notes also widened during the month from the
previous 170 bps to around the 200 bps mark. The risk indicator for
Indonesian bonds (CDS spread) was recorded in the 180 bps range, up
from 162 bps one month earlier. However, the swap premium, another
of the risk indicators, remained stable. This is indicative of positive global
investor expectations for the Indonesian economy (Graph 2.22).
Attractive returns on rupiah investments when compared to other countries in the region again helped attract foreign capital inflows into the domestic economy. The broad interest rate differential has
kept foreign funds pouring into Asia, including Indonesia. The subdued
level of risk indicators has enabled covered interest rate parity (CIP), which
factors in risks, to maintain a rising trend. Indonesia’s CIP in May 2010
Graph 2.16 Domestic and International Gold Prices
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Graph 2.17 Average Rupiah Exchange Rate
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Graph 2.18 Rupiah Exchange Rate Volatility
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
13
reached 3.99%, ahead of other countries in the region and particularly the
Philippines, Malaysia and Korea (Graph 2.23).
Monetary Policy
Interest RatesMonetary policy transmission operated by means of conducive overnight interbank rate maintained at around the BI Rate level. During May 2010, the overnight interbank rate mounted slightly over
the previous month, moving into closer proximity with the BI Rate. The
overnight interbank rate, which had declined in past period to near the
lower standing floor (FASBI Rate, 6%), recovered to near the BI Rate level
set at 6.5%. The overnight interbank rate averaged 6.15%, up slightly
from the previous month’s average of 6.10%. Despite the slight increase
in the overnight rate, banking liquidity remained plentiful, also reflecting
perceptions of stable risk on the interbank market. At the same time,
interbank rates for longer tenors continued to rise. Average interbank rates
in longer tenors shifted 1-3 bps, except in the 27-30 day tenor and the
over 30 day tenor where rates climbed 5 bps and 13 bps.
Interbank transactions were comparatively stable during May 2010.
Average total daily volume (borrowing and lending) on the overnight
market and the interbank market in all tenors reached Rp 15.3 trillion
and Rp 21.3 trillion. This reflects an improvement in bank perceptions of
counterparty risk.
Concerning bank interest rates, deposit rates recorded steady decline during March 2010. That month, the 1-month deposit rate
narrowed by 16 bps from the previous month’s level of 6.77%. Rates in
longer tenors (3, 6 and 12 months) similarly eased, while the 24 month
tenor was an exception. This resulted in improvement in the deposit rate
structure during March 2010 compared to the preceding month. The
improved interest rate structure was visible in the rising level of deposit
rates in keeping with maturity. However, in analysis by category of bank,
private banks provided the momentum for this improvement in the deposit
rate structure, while other bank categories and particularly foreign and
joint venture banks continued to emphasise provision of greater incentives
to customers for 12-month fund placements.
Graph 2.19 Asia’s Exchange Rate Movement
Graph 2.20 Appreciation / Depreciation of Exchange Rate (Average) May 2010 compare to April 2010
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Graph 2.21 Indonesia Risk Perception Indicator Graph
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
14
Transmission of deposit rates to loan interest rates began to operate more effectively during March 2010. Average lending rates
(working capital credit, investment credit and consumption credit) fell
52 bps during March 2010 to 13.89%, considerably faster than the 2%
drop one month earlier. Consumption Credit provided the most important
contribution to decline in lending rates. Consumption credit rates fell 94
bps to 15.42%, while rates for investment credit and working capital
credit eased by smaller margins at 49 bps and 14 bps.
In analysis by category of bank, private banks recorded the steepest
decline in loan interest rates, with cuts made primarily in consumption
credit and working capital credit rates. On average, private banks lowered
their lending rates by 124 bps, more than in any other category of banks.
Regional development banks and foreign and joint venture bank lowered
their loan interest rates by no more than 4 bps and 9 bps, while state-
owned banks in fact raised their lending rates by 16 bps.
Graph 2.22 Premi Swap
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Graph 2.23 CIP Indicator in Asia Countries
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Table 2.1 Development of Various Interest Rates
Interest Rate (%)
BI Rate 8.75 8.25 7.75 7.5 7.25 7.00 6.75 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50 6.50Deposit Guarentee 9.50 9.00 8.25 7.75 7.75 7.50 7.25 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.00 7.001-month Deposit (Weighted Average) 10.52 9.88 9.42 9.04 8.77 8.52 8.31 7.94 7.43 7.38 7.16 6.87 7.09 6.93 6.77 naBase Lending Rate 14.18 13.98 13.94 13.78 13.64 13.40 13.20 13.00 12.96 13.01 12.94 12.83 12.65 12.66 12.58 naWorking Capital Credit 15.23 15.08 14.99 14.82 14.68 14.52 14.45 14.30 14.17 14.09 13.96 13.69 13.75 13.68 13.54 naInvesment Credit 14.37 14.23 14.05 14.05 13.94 13.78 13.58 13.48 13.20 13.20 13.03 12.96 13.24 13.21 12.72 naConsumption Credit 16.46 16.53 16.46 16.48 16.57 16.63 16.66 16.62 16.67 16.53 16.47 16.42 16.32 16.36 15.42 na
2009 2010
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
15
Funds, Credit, and Money SupplyDepositor funds recorded further improvement in annual growth.
From the beginning of the year until April 2010, depositor funds climbed
by Rp 7.4 trillion to Rp 1,980.5 trillion, bringing funding growth. In
analysis by component, funding growth again received a boost from
growth in time deposits, despite reductions in time deposit rates. This is
consistent with the larger share of depositor funds held by individuals,
most of whom place their funds in rupiah-denominated time deposits.
During April 2010, growth in foreign currency deposits mounted from
4.6% (yoy) to 7.8% (yoy), mainly involving non-financial corporate
demand deposits. The invigorated growth in foreign currency deposits and
particularly demand deposits came not only from export revenues, but also
in response to the appreciating trend in the rupiah.
Policy transmission through the credit channel is steadily improving in response to rising domestic demand and progressive decline in loan interest rates. In April 2010, credit expansion (including channelling)
reached 13.8% (yoy), ahead of the previous month’s expansion of 10.7%
(yoy). Additional lending volume in April 2010 came to Rp 45.2 trillion
(3.1%, ytd). Lending is expected to mount higher from demand side and
supply side growth. On the demand side, the improvement in domestic
economic conditions has fuelled demand for credit. In regard to credit
supply, one factor contributing to increased lending is the downward
movement in loan interest rates. Indications point to credit growth as high
as 17.6% (yoy) in May 2010.
In analysis by use of credit, credit expansion is explained primarily by the
contribution of consumption credit. In April 2010, growth in consumption
credit reached 28.2% (yoy). Investment credit and working capital credit
also recorded expansion at 17.9% (yoy) and 5.4% (yoy) (Graph 2.26).
In disaggregation by currency, foreign currency credit expansion was
up in keeping with the rise in foreign currency deposits and renewed
activity in export and imports. In analysis by sector, the increased rate
of credit expansion is explained by growth in the miscellaneous items
sector consistent with the rise in consumption credit. The trade sector
also improved during April 2010 with growth at 0.75% (yoy) compared
to the preceding month’s expansion at 0.5% (yoy), while manufacturing
growth remained negative. On the other hand, the mining, social services
and transportation sectors and the electricity, gas and water utilities sector
reported brisk growth in the range of 24%-82% (yoy).
Graph 2.24 Development of Various Interest Rates
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Graph 2.25 Development of Funds, Credits, and BI Rate
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Grafik 2.26 Credit Growth by Usage
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
16
Economic liquidity reflected in the base money indicator is steadily improving. During May 2010, base money growth steadily mounted in
keeping with upbeat economic activity. Base money growth strengthened
to 14.4% (yoy), compared to 13.9% (yoy) one month earlier. In analysis
by component, the base money acceleration was driven more by heavy
demand for cash outside banks. During May 2010, the added public
demand for cash outside banks reached Rp 8.2 trillion. Accordingly, the
May 2010 expansion in cash outside banks reached 13.3% (yoy), ahead of
the previous month’s level of 11.3% (y-o-y). These developments reflect an
improvement in economic conditions for the general public, although still
short of full recovery.
On the other hand, M1 growth in April 2010 was down slightly at 8.3%
(yoy) from 9.7% (yoy) one month earlier (Graph 2.27). This is explained
largely by a reduced position in demand deposits held by private non-
financial business following the payment of corporate taxes in April 2010,
as well as indications of migration of funds from demand deposits to time
deposits and foreign currency deposits alongside the upward exchange
rate trend. This development in M1 led to a rise in M2 growth from 11.4%
(yoy) in the preceding month to 11.8% (yoy) in April 2010 (Graph 2.28).
The improvement in M2 came in response to the upward trend in credit
expansion.
The Stock MarketStock market performance was impacted by external turmoil. The
debt crisis in the PIIGS countries (Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain)
sparked negative sentiment on stock markets around the globe, including
Indonesia. As a result, the JSX Composite Index (JCI) sustained 5.8%
correction to close at 2,796.96.
The weakening of the JCI was consistent with the correction on global
exchanges and offloading by foreign investors (Graph 2.29) related to
market pessimism over debt resolution for the PIIGS nations. Furthermore,
global financial market actors have begun to question the global monetary
policy exit strategy and the pace of recovery in world growth. This
ultimately triggered a sell-off by foreign investors and a round of share
price correction on almost all markets in the region.
The wave of foreigner selling was followed by plunging market confidence,
reflected among others in falling volume of share trading. During May
Graph 2.27 Growth of Currency in Circulation (Nominal)
Graph 2.28 Growth of Currency in Circulation (Riil)
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Graph 2.29 JCI and Regional Index
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
17
2010, foreign investors booked an accumulated net sale of Rp 1.7 trillion,
in contrast to behaviour during preceding months (March and April 2010)
with net purchase recorded at Rp 4.9 trillion and Rp 1.5 trillion. Foreign
investors embarked on flight to quality by offloading assets in emerging
market countries and migrating to more secure instruments such as US
government securities. Accompanying this was a drop in trading volume,
albeit on a limited scale. During May 2010, daily turnover in share trading
reached Rp 5.2 trillion, down slightly from the previous month’s average of
Rp 5.2 trillion (Graph 2.30).
Stock performance underwent correction across almost all sectors.
The market correction in mining and agribusiness stocks, both heavily
capitalised and activity traded on the exchange, resulted in a significant
contribution to the weakened performance of the JCI. The correction
sustained by the two sectors was closely linked to the drop world oil
prices brought on by escalating fears of a derailing of the world economic
recovery. Despite this, the consumer goods sector has taken a positive
turn. However, modest levels of capitalisation meant that the consumer
goods sector was unable to withstand the market correction on the stock
exchange.
Government Securities MarketThe financial market turmoil during May 2010 also spread to the market
for Indonesian government securities, driving up yield evenly across all
tenors. Average yield on government securities widened by 35 bps over
the preceding month to close at 8.9% (Graph 2.31). The steepest rise in
yield took place in medium-term government securities. Accordingly, short,
medium and long-term yield mounted by 35 bps, 38 bps and 29 bps.
Nevertheless, this represented a relatively modest increase in yield when
compared to yields during the 2008 crisis.
Like with the stock market, external risk indicators appear to have
influenced yield on government securities. Domestic market fears reached
a peak in May 2010 and ultimately drove up external risk indicators such
as the EMBIG spread and Indonesian CDS. In May 2010, the EMBIG spread
and Indonesia CDS mounted by 68.1 bps and 16.3 bps.
This eventually prompted foreign investors to offload their holdings on
the government securities market. During May 2010, foreign investors
booked a net sale of Rp 3.9 trillion in contrast to the previous months’ net
Graph 2.30 JCI and Average Daily Trading Volume
Graph 2.31 Yield SBN, BI Rate and 1-Month SBI
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
18
purchase at Rp 15.6 trillion. Foreigner selling behaviour on the government
securities market was similar to that on the stock market, with foreign
investors beginning to pull out of emerging markets in favour of safe
havens. This prompted a drop in market confidence that in turn bore
down on trading volume on the government securities market. During May
2010, daily average turnover reached Rp 4.4 trillion, down from the April
2010 average of Rp 6 trillion per day (Graph 2.32).
Mutual Funds MarketThe slide in stock market and government securities market during May 2010 had spillover effects on the mutual funds market. Reflecting this was index decline across almost all mutual fund products.
Equity funds recorded the steepest correction, followed by mixed funds.
Equity funds, fixed income funds and mixed funds sustained 11.3%, 0.6%
and 8.1% correction (Graph 2.33). NAV (net asset value) is also estimated
on a downward track in line with the performance of underlying assets.
Condition of the Banking SystemKey factors in the financial sector are the continued stability in the banking system and improvement in the bank intermediation function. Banking system stability in Indonesia is sufficiently robust to
anticipate contagion from the debt crisis in Europe. This is borne out in
the high capital adequacy ratio (CAR) for the banking system, reported in
the most recent data at 19.2%, in addition to the comfortably safe level of
non-performing loans (NPLs) gross at below 5% (Table 2.2). Improvement
in the bank intermediation function is reflected the upward trend in credit
expansion. Alongside this, Return on Assets (ROA) was stable at 2.9%, as
was the level of Net Interest Margin (NIM) at 0.5% (Table 2.2).
Graph 2.32 Yield SBN and Daily Trading Volume
Graph 2.33 Mixed Mutual Fund Index, Permanent Income, and Stocks
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Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
19
III. MONETARY POLICY RESPONSEIn the Board of Governors’ Meeting on 3 June 2010, Bank Indonesia decided to keep the BI Rate at 6.50%. This decision was taken after
a comprehensive evaluation of the latest developments and outlook
for the economy, which is now showing steady improvement. In the
opinion of the Board of Governors, the BI Rate at this level is consistent
with achievement of the 5%±1% inflation target in 2010 and 2011 and
remains conducive to the strengthening the process of economic recovery.
This decision is also consistent with measures to safeguard domestic
financial stability amid the rising risks and uncertainties brought on by the
debt crisis in Greece and a number of other European nations.
Table 2.2Main Indicators of Banking System
Main Indicators
Total Asset (T Rp) 2,307.1 2,344.9 2,352.1 2,327.4 2,309.8 2,354.3 2,331.4 2,384.6 2,388.6 2,392.7 2,439.7 2,534.1 2,501.8 2,517.0 2,563.7 2,576.3
DPK (T Rp) 1,745.6 1,767.1 1,786.2 1,780.9 1,783.6 1,824.3 1,806.6 1,847.0 1,857.3 1,863.5 1,897.0 1,973.0 1,948.6 1,931.6 1,982.2 1,980.5
Credit (T Rp) 1,325.3 1,334.2 1,342.1 1,332.1 1,339.2 1,368.9 1,370.2 1,400.4 1,399.9 1,410.4 1,430.9 1,470.8 1,435.7 1,459.7 1,485.9 1,516.0
LDR (%) 75.9 75.5 75.1 74.8 75.1 75.0 75.8 75.8 75.4 75.7 75.4 74.5 73.7 75.6 75.0 76.5
NPLs Gross* (%) 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.8 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.5
NPLs Net * (%) 1.6 1.6 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.0 0.9
CAR (%) 17.6 17.7 17.4 17.6 17.3 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.7 17.6 17.0 17.4 19.2 19.3 19.1 19.2
NIM (%) 0.5 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
ROA (%) 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.0 2.9
20102009
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
* with channeling
Monetary Policy Review - June 2010
20
* Provisional Figures * Using 2000 base year (BPS-Statistic Indonesia) 1) end of week 2) weighted average 3) end period closing 4) closed file Sources : Bank Indonesia, except stock market data (BAPEPAM), CPI, export/import and GDP (BPS)
Latest Indicators
FINANCIAL SECTOR
P R I C E S
EXTERNAL SECTOR
QUARTERLY INDICATOR
INTEREST RATE & STOCK One month SBI 1) Three month SBI 1) One month Deposit 2) Three month Deposit 2) One week JIBOR 2) JSX Indices 3)
MONETARY AGGREGATES (billions Rp)Base Money M1(C+D) Currency (C) Demand Deposit (D) Broad Money (M2 = C+D+T) Quasi Money (T) Quasi Money (Rupiah) Time Deposit Saving Deposit Foreign Currency Deposit Broad Money Rupiah
Claim on Business Sector Credit by DMBs
CPI - monthly (%, mtm) CPI - 1 year (%, yoy)
Rp/USD (endperiod,midrate) Non oil/gas Export (f.o.b, million USD) 4) Non oil/gas Import (c$f, million USD) 4) Net International Reserve (million USD)
Real GDP Growth (% y-o-y) Consumption Investment Changes in Stocks Export Import
7.25 6.95 6.71 6.58 6.48 6.49 6.47 6.46 6.45 6.41 6.27 6.20 - 7.39 7.05 6.79 6.63 6.55 6.60 6.59 6.59 6.60 6.59 6.56 6.50 - 8.77 8.52 8.31 7.94 7.43 7.38 7.16 6.87 7.09 6.93 6.77 - - 9.68 9.25 8.99 8.73 8.35 7.97 7.68 7.48 7.31 7.08 6.99 - - 7.69 7.09 6.96 6.56 6.46 6.46 6.47 6.46 6.45 6.40 6.38 6.30 - 1,917 2,027 2,323 2,342 2,468 2,368 2,416 2,534 2,611 2,549 2,777 2,971 2,797
309,232 322,994 322,850 324,663 354,297 364,869 376,938 402,118 384,176 380,145 374,406 388,752 - 456,955 482,621 468,949 490,128 490,502 485,538 495,061 515,824 496,527 490,084 494,461 - - 193,733 203,406 200,774 200,424 210,822 205,864 212,054 226,006 211,811 211,708 205,083 208,358 - 263,221 279,215 268,174 289,704 279,679 279,674 283,007 289,818 284,716 278,376 289,378 - - 1,808,979 1,859,258 1,840,715 1,871,508 1,889,158 1,900,466 1,928,347 2,013,425 1,942,999 1,936,273 1,972,683 - - 1,352,024 1,376,637 1,371,766 1,381,381 1,398,656 1,414,928 1,433,286 1,497,601 1,446,473 1,446,189 1,478,222 - - 1,217,906 1,245,822 1,245,247 1,251,225 1,272,217 1,285,497 1,297,781 1,359,667 1,317,461 1,317,102 1,347,094 - - 715,139 726,088 724,888 727,889 731,202 741,072 738,118 756,347 736,999 744,823 772,718 - - 502,767 519,733 520,359 523,336 541,015 544,425 559,663 603,320 580,462 572,280 574,376 - - 134,118 130,815 126,519 130,156 126,439 129,431 135,505 137,934 129,011 129,086 131,128 - - 1,674,861 1,728,443 1,714,196 1,741,352 1,762,719 1,771,035 1,792,842 1,875,491 1,813,988 1,807,186 1,841,555 - -
1,392,747 1,419,799 1,435,290 1,465,870 1,463,662 1,478,447 1,503,304 1,543,901 1,530,338 1,557,520 1,592,410 - - 1,297,211 1,319,240 1,359,101 1,351,565 1,347,876 1,360,639 1,379,527 1,403,686 1,350,803 1,378,227 1,370,033 - -
0.04 0.11 0.45 0.56 1.05 0.19 -0.03 0.33 0.84 0.30 -0.14 0.15 0.29 6.04 3.65 2.71 2.75 2.83 2.57 2.41 2.78 3.72 3.81 3.43 3.91 4.16
10,340 10,225 9,920 10,060 9,681 9,545 9,480 9,400 9,365 9,335 9,115 9,012 9,180 8,229 8,470 8,437 8,966 8,200 9,760 8,449 10,936 8,399 8,712 10,701 - - 6,366 6,987 7,720 7,313 5,589 7,883 6,759 7,936 7,523 7,534 9,054 - - 51.65 50.99 50.72 50.84 53.81 55.68 56.15 57.69 61.59 62.14 63.60 70.75 68.54
5.7 4.4 6.9 19.0 21.1
May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
2009 2010
Q.I***
2010