module 7 vaa
TRANSCRIPT
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Climate Change: Vulnerability
and Adaptation Assessment
Dr. Rosa T. Perez
Enabling the Cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan to Cope with Climate Change
(Project Climate Twin Phoenix)
Tagaytay City
7-11 January 2013
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Outline
Vulnerability and Adaptation Assessment
Introduction and Overview
Basic concepts and definitions
Assessment tools (e.g., characteristics, limitations,
procedures/methodologies)
Case presentation/studies
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Global Warming (1884 to 2011)
Source: NASA
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WMO Press ReleaseNo. 966 - 2012: Record Arctic Sea Ice Melt, Multiple Extremes and High
TemperaturesGENEVA/DOHA, 28 November 2012 (WMO)The
years 20012011 were all among the warmest on record, and,according to the World Meteorological Organization, the first ten months indicate
that 2012 will most likely be no exception despite the cooling influence of La Nia
early in the year.WMOs provisional annual statement on the state of the global climate also
highlighted the unprecedented melt of the Arctic sea ice and multiple weather andclimate extremes which affected many parts of the world. It was released today to
inform negotiators at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Doha,
Qatar.
January-October 2012 has been the ninth warmestsuch period since records began in 1850. The global land and ocean surfacetemperature for the period was about 0.45C (0.81F) above the corresponding
19611990 average of 14.2C, according to the statement.
Source: http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/index_en.html
http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/966_WMOstatement.pdfhttp://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/documents/966_WMOstatement.pdf -
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WARMER WORLD
precipitationconcentrated into
more intense events
longer periods of little
precipitation in between
Intense, heavy downpoursinterspersed with longer
relatively dry periods
Modelling studies: future tropical
cyclonescould become moresevere, with greater wind speeds,
more intense precipitation
Climate Change 2007: Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis
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Potential Impacts in Key sectors in SE Asia
Source: ADB,2009
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5
2
3
1
4
54
Linkages: Anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and
responses to climate change
Source: IPCC (AR4 SYR), 2007
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Actions to address Climate Change
IPCC-TAR, 2001
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Vulnerability, Adaptation, and
Mitigation
Vulnerability:
the combined measure of threats to a
particular system.
the degree to which a system is susceptible toor unable to cope with the adverse effects of
climate change, including climate variability and
extremes (Mc Carthy et al., 2001).
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Vulnerability, Adaptation, and
Mitigation
Adaptation:
the ability of a system to adjust to climate change inorder to reduce its vulnerability, and enhance the
resilience to observed and anticipated impacts ofclimate change.
'adjustment in natural or human systems to a new or
changing environment. Adaptation to climate change
refers to adjustment in natural or human systems in
response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their
effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial
opportunities'.
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Vulnerability, Adaptation, and
Mitigation
Adaptation occurs in physical, ecological, and humansystems. It involves the following.
Changes in social and environmental processes
Perceptions of climate risk
Practices and functions to reduce risk Exploration of new opportunities to cope with the
changed environment
Mitigation: Mitigation refers to any strategy or action
taken to remove the GHGs released into the atmosphere,
or to reduce their amount.
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Concepts and Frameworks
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A VULNERABILITYFramework
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A Burning Example
Sensitivity Fair skinned
Deeper skin tones
Exposure
Strength of the suns rays:f(latitude, season and weatherconditions)
Number of hours under the sun
Adaptive capacity Protective clothing
Sunscreen
Tanning
pennmedicine.org
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Vulnerability as defined by IPCC
(IPCC, 2007; IPCC, 2001; McCarthy and Others, 2001)
A function of
sensitivity of aparticular system
to climate
changes, its
exposure to
those changes
and its capacity
to adapt to
those changes
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Components of Vulnerability
Exposure: nature and degree to which a system is exposed tosignificant climatic variations
Sensitivity: degree to which a system is affected, either adverselyor beneficially, by climate variability or change. The effect may be
direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a change in themean, range or variability of temperature) or indirect (e.g.,damages caused by an increase in the frequency of coastal floodingdue to sea level rise).
Adaptive Capacity: The ability of a system to adjust to climate
change (including climate variability and extremes) to moderatepotential damages, to take advantage of opportunities, or to copewith the consequences.
IPCC AR4, TAR WG2
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Exposure
Essentially answer the question of who or what is at risk toclimate change (i.e., what is exposedto climate change) andthe change in climate. So, it includes:
The population (e.g., people, species) that can be affected by
climate change Settlements and infrastructure that can be affected by climate
change
Natural resources that can be affected by climate change
The nature of climate change itself ( e.g., change in sea level,temperature, extreme events).
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Impact (1)
Typically means the effect of climate change.
For biophysical systems it can be change in
productivity, quality, or population numbers or range.
For societal systems, impact can be measured aschange in value (e.g., gain or loss of income) or in
morbidity, mortality, or other measure of well-being
(Parry and Carter, 1998).
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Impact (2)
The effects may be direct or indirect:
Direct (e.g., a change in crop yield in response to a
change in the mean, range, or variability of
temperature) Indirect (e.g., damages caused by an increase in the
frequency of coastal flooding due to sea-level rise)
(McCarthy et al., 2001, p. 6).
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Sensitivity
Sensitivityis defined by the IPCC as the degree towhich a system is affected, either adversely orbeneficially, by climate-related stimuli.
Climate-related stimuli encompass all of the elementsof climate change, including mean climatecharacteristics, climate variability, and the frequencyand magnitude of extremes.
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Examples of sensitivities: human health
Severely degraded or collapsed health care system Poor and declining immunity, nutritional and health status of large portion
of population
High poverty rates that limit access to health care - Lack of disease
surveillance, vector control and prevention programs
Large portion of population lose reliable access to potable water andsanitation
Land use changes, including new reservoirs that increase habitat for
disease vectors
Limited access to health care Lacking disease surveillance, vector control and disease prevention
Malnutrition
Drug resistance
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V = f (E, S, AC)
Used in MDG-F and Sectoral VA Mainstreaming
Guidelines (Cabrido et al.)
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Changes in mean climate,
variability, extreme events
and sea level rise
Effects on livelihoods Impact on vulnerability
Increased temperature and
changes in precipitation
reduces agricultural and
natural resources
Changes in precipitation run-
off and variability leads to
greater water stressIncreased incidence or
intensity of climate related
extremes such as water
stress
Temperature, water and
vegetation changes resultingin increasing prevalence of
disease
Direct impacts of climatic
shocks and stresses such as
livelihood assets, health,
food and water security
Increased pressure onCoping strategies and social
protection measures
Reduced ability to recover
due to increased frequency
of climatic shocks orincreased intensity of
climatic stresses
Increased vulnerability due
to:
Lower capacity to prepare;
Lower capacity to cope;
and
Lower capacity to recover
from climatic and non-climatic shocks and stresses
Source: DFID,2004
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Risk = Hazard x Exposure x Vulnerability
lack of capacity of community to
prepare, absorb, recover from hazardVulnerability
elements affected by hazardExposure
physical impact of disturbanceHazard
likelihood of harm, loss, disasterRisk
UN Disaster Risk =f(HEV)
Adaptive Capacity
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Exposure
Sensitivity
Adaptive Capacity
Hazard
Exposure
Vulnerability(Inherent Vulnerability)
Adaptive Capacity
IPCC Vulnerability UN Risk
NOTE: Not a strict correspondence but a rough mapping to facilitate linking of
understanding of frameworks.
Reconciling Frameworks
climate change adaptation
climate change mitigationdisaster mitigation
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Major
decision
contexts forVulnerability
Assessments
1. Specification of
mitigation
strategies
2. Identification of
who or what arevulnerable
3. Recommendationof adaptation
measures
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Why do we conduct a Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment
Meant to serve the needs of the relevantstakeholders, rather than the researcher
or analyst
Designed to provide information useful tostakeholders to understand vulnerability toclimate change and adaptation options
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Why do we conduct a Vulnerability and
Adaptation Assessment
Use models or other tools (e.g. GIS maps)only as means of providing useful
information to stakeholders
Begin by identifying the questionsstakeholders would like to have avulnerability and adaptation assessmentanswer
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Issues to Consider When Beginning a
Vulnerability Assessment
General
Process and
ScopeBudget and
Political Support
Technical-Time Frame
- Approaches Stakeholders
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General Process and Scope (1)
How much time is available for the assessment? On which planning areas do you want to focus the
assessment? (What is of concern?)
Is it food production, water supply, health? Concerns may be expressed not in climate terms, e.g.,
extreme temperature, but in consequences of climate for
people, e.g., drought, flood, malnutrition.
Who will perform the assessment?
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General Process and Scope (2)
Do you have the technical capacity to perform it in-house?
If outsourcing the assessment, what is the procedure
that must be followed for hiring a contractor?
What questions do you want the assessment to
answer?
Which specific decisions do you want the assessment
to support?
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Budget and Political Support
What resources are available?What is your budget for the assessment?
How big a staff is available? Can consultants be used?
What expertise is available either on staff or through
consulting?Who will manage the assessment process
and budget?
How much time is available?Do you have political support for the
assessment?
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Technical
Will any model(s) be developed for the assessment?
Will the local government be able to operate the modelfor future scenario analysis?
What type of scenarios does the community want tomodel? (Best case? Worst case? Middle-of-the-road?)
Who may be affected?
How far into the future is of concern?
For what purpose is the assessment to be used? Raising awareness (education)?
Policy making?
What kind of output is needed?
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Approaches to Assessment
The approach chosen, i.e., the framework and the applicationof specific models or other tools, should best answer thequestions posed by the stakeholders within the resource and
time constraints
The choice of approach or models should be based in part onwhich ones best answer the questions being asked and can beused within available constraints.
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Time Frame (1)
The time frame being examined is a very important
matter.
If there is more interest in understanding impacts ofclimate change, then the analysis ought to look over
many decades, perhaps out to 2100
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Time Frame (2)
If there is more interest in current vulnerability or
adaptation strategies, then the analysis should focus
on the next few decades up to about 2050.
The near future could be defined as 2020 and the far futureas 2050.
This is generally because most policy makers would have
difficulty planning for more than a few decades and some
might even have difficulty planning for a few decades intothe future.
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Stakeholder Consultation
Stakeholders should be involved throughout the
process.
In particular, they should be involved in determining
what will be examined, what adaptations should beconsidered, and in evaluating results.
For some sets of stakeholders, it may not be important
who does the analysis, as long as the stakeholders
trust that it is being done well.
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Stakeholder Consultation
Other stakeholders may wish to take an active role
in conducting the analysis or have people they trust
(e.g., have worked with previously) conduct the
research.
Either ways, it is important to keep stakeholders
involved, at least by keeping them informed about
progress and interim results.
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Stakeholders Analysis
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Vulnerability assessment (1)
A vulnerability assessment is the process of
identifying, quantifying, and prioritizing (or ranking)
the vulnerabilities in a system.
Examples of systems for which vulnerabilityassessments are performed include, but are not
limited to, information technology systems, energy
supply systems, water supply systems,
transportation systems, and communication
systems.
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Vulnerability assessment (2)
Such assessments may be conducted on behalf of a
range of different organizations, from small
businesses up to large regional infrastructures.
Vulnerability from the perspective of disastermanagement means assessing the threats from
potential hazards to the population and to
infrastructure. It may be conducted in the political,
social, economic or environmental fields.
Evolution of CC Vulnerability Assessments
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Evolution of CC Vulnerability Assessments
FROM TO
Linear More complex chains of analysis
Non-adaptive to
perfectly adaptive
Realistically adaptive agents
Simplistic to
sophisticated
Pluralistic consideration of
development pathways
Strictly quantitative Quantitative and qualitative
analyses
Purely science-driven Policy-driven assessmentsThose that dictate users Those that involve those users in
the actual assessments
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1. Need to address cross cutting issues (e.g. sustainabledevelopment, equity and scientific uncertainties)
2. Changes in climate variability and extremes asdeterminants of future impacts and vulnerabilities
3. Interactions of climate change with other stresses on
environment and society
4. Need for adaptation measures to lessen the risk of
damage from future climate change and current climate
variability
Why the shift?
Li k A th i d i i t f d
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5
2
3
1
4
54
Linkages: Anthropogenic drivers, impacts of and
responses to climate change
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Fussel and Klein, 2006
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Fussel and Klein, 2006
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Fussel and Klein, 2006
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Fussel and Klein, 2006
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Figure 2-2 Conceptual framework for climate change impacts, vulnerability, disaster risks and adaptation options (source: EEA, 2010a; ETC-ACC, 2010b).
D t i t f V l bilit
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Human health and life
Existence and cultural identity
Biodiversity and ecosystem servicesIncome and livelihood
SYSTEM
ATTRIBUTE OF
CONCERN
A human environment system
Geographic region
Economic sectorNatural system
HAZARDExternalclimate change, floods
Internalunsustainable farming practices
TIME SCALECurrent
Future
Determinants of Vulnerability
Information on vulnerability, exposure, and changing climate
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Asset relocation
Weather/climate -proofing assets
Early warning systems
poverty reduction
better education and
awareness
sustainable development
improved forecasting for
warning systems
reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions
y p g gextremes and climate hazards can together inform
adaptation and disaster risk management
IPCC-SREX, 2012
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Approaches
Sectoral
Multi sectoral approach
Cross sectoral (integrated)
Sectoral Vulnerability and Adaptation
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Sectoral Vulnerability and Adaptation
Assessment
Analysis on how a specific sector can be affected byclimate change. Sectoral adaptation measures aim atactions for individual sectors that could be affected byclimate change. For example, in agriculture, reduced
rainfall and higher evaporation rates would call fornew means of irrigation practices. Such a change wouldrequire a national policy framework which integratestraditional coping mechanisms along with new practices,
and emphasizes on the importance of including climatechange as a long term consideration while formulatingpolicies.
Multi sectoral approach
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Multi sectoral approach
This approach aims at actions that draw from
various sectors. It is like looking at a particular
problem through different lenses. It cuts across
various sectors, for example, integrated waterresources management (IWRM), river basins or
coastal zones. Linking adaptation to climate change,
with management options identified in various
conventions, could serve as a multi-sectoralapproach.
Cross sectoral
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Cross sectoral
This is an integrated measure which looks at the
objective in a very holistic manner. For example,
science, research and development, and
technological innovations such as the developmentof drought-resistant crop varieties, or new
technologies to combat saltwater intrusion.
Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to
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Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to
Climate Change
Determineobjectives
and scope
Identify audience, user requirements, and needed products
Engage key internal and external stakeholders
Establish and agree on goals and objectives
Identify suitable assessment targets
Determine appropriate spatial and temporal scales
Select assessment approach based on targets, user needs, and
available resources
Gather
relevant data
and expertise
Review existing literature on assessment targets and climate
impacts
Reach out to subject experts on target species or systemsObtain or develop climatic projections, focusing on ecologically
relevant variables
and suitable spatial and temporal scales
Obtain or develop ecological response projections
Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to
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Key Steps for Assessing Vulnerability to
Climate Change
Assesscomponents
of
vulnerability
Evaluate climate sensitivity of assessment targets Determine likely exposure of targets to climatic/ecological
change
Consider adaptive capacity of targets that can moderate
potential impact
Estimate overall vulnerability of targets
Document level of confidence or uncertainty in assessments
Apply
assessment in
adaptationplanning
Explore why specific targets are vulnerable to inform possible
adaptation responses
Consider how targets might fare under various management andclimatic scenarios Share assessment results with stakeholders and decision-makers
Use results to advance development of adaptation strategies and
plans
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Sectoral Vulnerabilities
Agriculture and Food Security
Watershed and Forestry
Coastal Sector
Human Health
Source: SNC,2010
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Agriculture and Food Security
Historical value added (GVA*) in
agriculture (palay, corn, coconut and
sugarcane (1967-2008)
Gross Value Added (GVA) in Agriculture
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
50000
6 7 6 9 7 1 7 3 7 5 7 7 7 9 8 1 8 3 8 5 8 7 8 9 9 1 9 3 9 5 9 7 9 9 01 0 3 0 5 0 7
Y E A R
G
VA
(inMillionPesos)
Palay
Corn
Coconut
Sugarcane
GVA is defined as the difference between gross output and the immediate inputs,
with gross outputs of a production unit during a given period
PHILIPPINES
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
YEAR
YIELD
(MT/Ha)
IRRIGATED RAINFED
Annual yields (mt/ha) from rainfed
and irrigated rice systems in the
Philippines (1970-2008)Source: BAS,
P j t d Ri Yi ld
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Projected Rice Yield
Source: IRRI, 2009
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Forestry and Watershed
Vulnerability = f(sensitivity
due to topography, slopes,
elevation)
Vulnerability to climaterisks = f(degree of physical
exposure , adaptive
capacity) Adaptive capacity =
f( development
factor/population density)
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Coastalflooding
/storm surgeCoral
bleaching
Ocean
Acidification
Mangrovedestruction
Coastal Resources Sector
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Impacts of Climate Change
Extreme weather/events disasters
Increased flooding
Freshwater shortage
Saltwater intrusion Sea level rise
Ocean acidification
Coastal andMarine resources
Peoplessecurity,
livelihood and
way of life
Challenges to
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
affect
Source: PEMSEA,2010
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Coastal Capacities (Lack of)
Extreme and Chronic Poverty
Geographically isolated and disadvantaged- disconnectedness,
high cost of transport, lack of access to markets
Resource-poor 80% of rice is imported (except for West Coast)
No access to energy grid (thus, expensive ,diesel-fired generators) for
small islands
Depleted fishing grounds, competition from commercial intrusions
Low economic density; small and diffused markets; limited
internal trade
Source: Salceda, 2010)
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Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise
Land Loss due to 1 m SLR (beyond 2050)
CGSD, NAMRIA (1992) 129,114 ha
Greenpeace (2005) 138,000 ha
Manila Observatory (2009) 89,800 ha
H l h S
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Health Sector
Leptospirosis is positively
associated with the
volume of rainfall (r =
.515, p
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Leptospirosis and climate change projections
Malaria and Climate change projections 2020 and 2050
Dengue and climate change projections
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indicates that a one-meter risein sea level is projected toaffect 64 out of 81 provinces,covering at least 703 out of
1,610 municipalities, andinundating almost 700 millionsquare meters of land. The redmark indicates provinces thatare at threat.
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Adaptation & Food Security
Private- Alter crop species and varieties- Alter livestock species and breeds- Alter timing of planting and harvest- Multiple cropping season- Rehabilitation of on-farm structures- Change land use
Public- Plant and animal breeding
- Public awareness and extension- Insurance schemes and conditional cash tranfers- Modernization of irrigation systems
Adaptation
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Adaptation
It is an adjustment in natural or human systems in response toactual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, whichmoderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities (IPCC,TAR: Smit et al., 2001, p. 881).
Includes observed as well as anticipated future changes inclimate.
Adaptation can be happening in response to perceived changein climate or in anticipation of future change in climate. Autonomous adaptation is considered to be adaptations made by
affected entities, such as individuals, societies or nature, in response toobserved or perceived changes in climate.
Anticipatory or proactive adaptation is made to reduce risk from futurechanges in climate.
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Adaptation & Food Security
Structural Measures: Drought and saline resistant crops, Efficient irrigation techniques, Water conservation technologies,
Improved farming systems/practices
Non-structural measures: Strengthen risk and vulnerability
assessment, Weather data collection and forecasts, Early warning systems, Effective policy coordination and
institutional arrangements.
There are strategies that can help managedi t i k d l h l i
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The most effective strategies offerdevelopment benefits in the relatively near
term and reduce vulnerability over the longer term
disaster risk now and also help improve
peoples livelihoods and well-being
Application to CLUP
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Application to CLUP
(Multi-sectoral)
C t l
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Cross sectoral
This is an integrated measure which looks at theobjective in a very holistic manner.
For example, science, research and development,
and technological innovations such as thedevelopment of drought-resistant crop varieties, or
new technologies to combat saltwater intrusion.
A good example is the ecosystem based or EcoTown
or ridge to reef approaches
Integrated or cross-sectoral
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Integrated or cross sectoral
A Continuum of Climate Change Adaptation Measures
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Adaptationfocus
Benefit in the
absence of CC
Example
Vulnerability reduction Response to impacts
100% 0%
Providing farmersdrought tolerant
varieties & trainingfor water savingmethods
Teaching officialsto collect climate
data and integratein their planningdecisions
Coastal zoneprotection with
vegetativebuffers likemangroves
Constructingshelters in
response tofrequentTyphoons
Non-structural StructuralType
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Thank you!