Modulation of the Extratropical Circulation by Combined Activity of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and Equatorial Rossby Waves

Lawrence C. Gloeckler and Dr. Paul E. RoundyDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, The University at Albany – SUNY

DAES Undergraduate Thesis Presentation2 May 2011Albany, NY

Overview

MJO Convection

Extratropical Rossby Waves

Equatorial Rossby Waves

Background Information

MJO Circulation

200-hPa streamfunction (contoured every 10 × 105 m2 s−1), total wind (vectors in m s−1), and MJO-filtered Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly (shaded < −16 W m−2).

Adapted from Fig. 2b of Kiladis et al. (2005).

MJO Circulation

200-hPa streamfunction (contoured every 10 × 105 m2 s−1), total wind (vectors in m s−1), and MJO-filtered Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly (shaded < −16 W m−2).

Adapted from Fig. 2b of Kiladis et al. (2005).

MJO Circulation

300-hPa streamfunction (contoured every 10 × 105 m2 s−1), total wind (vectors in m s−1), and MJO-filtered Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) anomaly (shaded < −16 W m−2).

Adapted from Fig. 2b of Kiladis et al. (2005).

ER Wave Development

EQ

300-hPa

ER Wave Development

EQ

300-hPa

ER Wave Development

EQ

300-hPa

ER Wave Development

EQ

300-hPa

ER Wave Development

EQ

300-hPa

Background Flow

Background Flow

ER Wave Development

EQ

300-hPa

ER Wave Development

EQ

300-hPa

Data and Methodology

Analyzed satellite-derived OLR data and NCEP—NCAR 40-year reanalysis data pertaining to 300-hPa geopotential height and wind anomalies

Identified set of dates during NH winter (1 Nov–31 Mar) when MJO was located over Maritime Continent Position over Maritime Continent consistent

with RMM Phase 4

Data and Methodology

Identified longitude where ER wave crossing occurred most frequently for RMM Phase 4 Developed set of dates in which ER waves

crossed identified longitude

Results: Hovmöllers

MJO OnlyRMM Phase 4

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

MJO OnlyRMM Phase 4

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

MJO OnlyRMM Phase 4

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

ER Wave OnlyRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

ER Wave OnlyRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

ER Wave OnlyRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Sum of MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

MJO OnlyRMM Phase 4

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Simultaneous MJO and ER WaveRMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

OLR (shaded between 7.5°S and 7.5°N; W m-2) and 300-hPa geopotential height anomaly (contoured between 40°N and 50°N; red=positive, blue=negative)

Significance Test Randomly selected a list of dates associated with

RMM phase 4 equal to number of ER wave events counted at identified base point Developed composite MJO with same number of

degrees of freedom associated with combined composite

Generated composite for random dates and repeated 1,000 times Compared composite result to composite

generated by randomly selecting ER wave events during RMM phase 4

Significance Test Determined mean amplitude of random MJO

composite is approximately one half mean amplitude of simultaneous composite between 40°N and 50°N

Two distributions demonstrated mean amplitude differences significantly larger than zero at 95% confidence level

Results: Composites

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –4 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –3 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –2 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –1 day, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 0 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 day, RMM Phase 4OLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 2 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 3 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 4 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

MJO OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 5 days, RMM Phase 4

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –4 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –3 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –2 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –1 day, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 0 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 day, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 2 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 3 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 4 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

ER Wave OnlyOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 5 days, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 1 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –5 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –4 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –3 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –2 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = –1 day, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 0 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 1 day, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 2 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 3 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 4 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Simultaneous MJO/ER WaveOLR, 300-hPa Height and Wind Anomaly, Lag = 5 days, RMM Phase 4, ER Base Lon 155E

Positive 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)Negative 300-hPa height anomaly (20 dam intervals)u/v wind anomaly (magnitude exceeding ± 2 m s-1)

Summary

MJO Convection

Extratropical Rossby Waves

Equatorial Rossby Waves

The Grand Conclusion

Simultaneous assessment of MJO and ER wave events yields more information about extratropical circulation than can be obtained from either field alone, or from simple linear combination of two fields

ER wave state during particular MJO phase might yield better empirical prediction of following global atmospheric circulation

Acknowledgments

A special thank you to: Dr. Paul Roundy for lending his time and

expertise to helping me develop and analyze my research problem

Kyle MacRitchie for allowing me to use several of his MATLAB scripts, and for helping me understand the many facets of MATLAB

Thank you!

Lawrence C. GloecklerDepartment of Atmospheric and Environmental SciencesUniversity at Albany – SUNYemail: LG278384@albany.edu

QUESTIONS?