modern war lecture
TRANSCRIPT
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MODERN WAR
AVM MOHAN DE ZOYSA. ndc. psc. ctf-ndu(USA). MSc(NSW-Pak).MSc(DEF-Ind).
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"I don't know how man will fight World War III, but I do know how they will fight World War IV; with sticks and stones"
- Albert Einstein
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INTRODUCTION
• There are glaring inter-dependencies in the 21st century;
– Economies are interwoven and dependant
– Political ideologies now exportable - democracy
– Globalization has breached gap between people and states and
widened the gap between the haves and the have-nots
– Religion and extremism has found common grounds leading to
conflict
– Non-state actors in various spheres have become more relevant
– Challenges have reshaped cooperative security mechanisms
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INTRODUCTION
• Nation states apply all elements of national power to prosecute war as an outflow of conflict – The ability to influence the behavior of others to get a
desired outcome
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INTRODUCTION
– All the means that are available for employment in the pursuit of national objectives
GeographyNatural resourcesDemographyEconomic capacityTechnological basePolitical structureNational leadership
Cultural cohesionNational moraleNational characterMilitary strengthFaithInformationWar potential
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AIM
To impart an elementary knowledge of conflict & war in the 21st century
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SEQUENCE
• Definitions• Spectrum of War• Generational War• Emerging Character of War• Sources & Nature of War• Global Security Environment, Challenge & Reality• Conclusion
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CONFLICT AND WAR
• Conflict : issues that confront nation states, trans-national organizations and non-state actors
• War : violent outcome of a state of conflict
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SPECTRUM OF WAR / CONFLICT
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SPECTRUM OF WAR / CONFLICTProbability vs. Intensity
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GENERATIONAL WAR
• Generations of Warfare
– The First Generation of Modern War - War of line and column tactics
– Second Generation - Mass Firepower
– Third Generation warfare - Blitzkrieg or Maneuver Warfare
– Fourth Generation war - The state loses its monopoly on war and find themselves fighting non-state opponents
– Fifth Generation war - Hybrid war
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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR
• Conflict embedded in human nature has its manifestations at individual as well as group level
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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR
• Affected by Technological changes, national interests, regional and extra regional interests
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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR
• The non state actors struggling against the state• Armed struggle against foreign occupation• Wars of liberation or cessation• Uprising of masses for change of regime
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EMERGING CHARACTER OF WAR
• The military pitched against a much smaller and much less armed and organized adversary
• Remains a test of politico-military will of the state • Financed and armed by local / regional / I’national• Ideological dimension
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DOMESTIC SOURCES OF WAR
• Bureaucracies, Organizations• Information Processing And Decision Making
Failures• Intelligence Failures• Domestic Political Lobbies • Foreign Policy Considerations• Public opinion and Diversionary theory
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DOMESTIC SOURCES OF WAR
• The Military and Trade Lobbies• Youth Bulge• Political Alienation• Corruption• Poverty• Urbanization• Civil War; Genocide
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INTERNATIONAL SOURCES OF WAR
• Ideological difference• Post 9/11 Terrorism, Protracted Conflict• Engagement In Proxy Wars • Rivalry, Alliances and Economic Relations• Environmental Degradation And Conflict • Energy and Resource Wars• Nuclear Proliferation• Arms Race
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INTERNATIONAL SOURCES OF WAR
• Globalization• Clash of Civilization• Religious Differences• Cultural Dominance• Migration• Terrorism and Extremism
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NATURE OF CONFLICT / WAR
• Kinetic means - Have been the predominant form of war fighting
• Non-Kinetic Means - Diplomatic, Information, and Economic instruments of power, as well as the non-kinetic elements of the Military instrument
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GLOBAL SECURITY ENVIRONMENT
• A different strategic environment • Dramatic changes in world's geopolitical
framework• difficult to predict due to exceedingly complex
nature of warInternational economyInformation technologyDemographyWeak / failed statesGlobalization
Energy demandResource scarcityClimate changeCyber war
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GLOBAL SECURITY CHALLENGE
• New trends have emerged in the environment• There is a new social awakening• Citizens are demanding for their rights• States versus people• Status Quo of political systems are challenged
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IMPLICATIONSSocial
Injustice,Alienation
Resistance Uprising
Writ of State State Failure
Political Change
Intervention: Domestic Regional
International
Peace, Stability
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GLOBAL SECURITY - REALITY
• The global security environment has challenged the current international system
• Strong states have assumed unilateralism and dominates global sphere
• The potential for multi-polarism becomes more eminent as struggle for space becomes invigorated
• Weak states are continually suppressed and becoming irrelevant
• Chances for new form of conflict becomes imminent such as hybrid war
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CONCLUSION
• Events are shaping the world as it transits 21st century
• States and NSAs relevant, as control for resources become competitive
• Challenges and expectations for key actors and players
• The ways and means changing to achieve the ENDS
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MODERN WAR
AVM MOHAN DE ZOYSA. ndc. psc. ctf-ndu(USA). MSc(NSW-Pak).MSc(DEF-Ind).
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