modern principles of economics third edition chapter 11 unemployment and labor force participation
TRANSCRIPT
MODERN PRINCIPLES OF ECONOMICSThird EditionChapter 11
Unemployment and Labor Force Participation
Outline
Defining Unemployment Frictional Unemployment Structural Unemployment Cyclical Unemployment Labor Force Participation
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Introduction
Some unemployment is a necessary part of economic growth.
Employment in fields such as farming has declined, while other jobs such as blacksmith and darkroom technician have disappeared.
New jobs have been created in areas like software engineering and the biosciences.
There are different types of unemployment with different causes.
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Introduction
Employment, Unemployment, and Labor Force Participation in the U.S. Population
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Definition
Unemployed workers:
Adults who do not have a job but who are looking for work.
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Unemployment rate:
The percentage of the labor force without a job.
Unemployment
Someone is unemployed only if he or she is willing and able to work but cannot find a job.
To be counted as unemployed, a person must be:
16 years or older not institutionalized (e.g., not in prison) a civilian, and looking for work.
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Unemployment
In April 2014, there were 9.8 million people unemployed in the U.S. and 145.7 employed.
Together, the employed and the unemployed make up the labor force of 155.5 million.
The unemployment rate was:
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100forceLabor
Unemployed
Employed Unemployed
Unemployed(%) ratent Unemployme
%3.61005.155
8.9
145.7mm 9.8
million 9.8 ratent Unemployme
Self-Check
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Self-Check
If 2 million people are unemployed and 8 million are employed, the unemployment rate is:
a. 2%.
b. 20%.
c. 25%.
Answer: b – the unemployment rate is [2 / (2 + 8)] x 100 = 20%.
Definition
Labor force participation rate:
The percentage of adults in the labor force.
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Unemployment
Unemployment, especially if it is long-term, can be financially and psychologically devastating.
Unemployment also means that the economy is underperforming.
The unemployment rate is the single best indicator of how well the labor market is working, but it is incomplete.
The unemployment rate does not include discouraged or underemployed workers.
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Definition
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Discouraged workers:
Workers who have given up looking for work but who would still like a job.
Discouraged Workers
Discouraged workers are difficult to measure because the concept is not well-defined.
One definition is workers who want and are available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the last year but not in the last month because they believe that no jobs were available for them.
Using this definition, the number of discouraged workers is small relative to the number of unemployed workers.
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Discouraged Workers
The Unemployment Rate With and Without Discouraged Workers
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Underemployment
The unemployment rate also doesn’t measure the quality of the jobs or how well workers are matched to their jobs.
A taxi driver with a PhD in chemistry is counted as fully employed; so is a part-time worker.
Defining and measuring partial employment is difficult.
As of March 2014, the underemployment rate in the U.S. was an unusually high 12.7.
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Definition
Underemployment rate:
A Bureau of Labor Statistics measure that includes part-time workers who would rather have a full-time position and people who would like to work but have given up looking for a job.
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Self-Check
If you have a Ph.D. in physics and are working as a retail clerk, you are:
a. Unemployed.
b. Partially employed.
c. Underemployed.
Answer: c – you are underemployed.
Definition
Frictional unemployment:
Short term unemployment caused by the ordinary difficulties of matching employee to employer.
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Frictional Unemployment
Finding a job that you want at a wage that you will accept and the employer will pay takes time.
This leads to frictional unemployment. Scarcity of information is one of the causes of
frictional unemployment. One of the most worrying aspects of the 2007–
2009 recession is the increase in long-term unemployment.
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Duration Of Unemployment
U.S. Unemployment Duration in 2005 and 2010 in the United States
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Frictional Unemployment
Frictional unemployment is typically a large share of total unemployment because the U.S. economy is dynamic.
“Creative destruction” describes this process. Innovation and competition drive progress,
which creates new jobs and destroys old jobs. In February 2014, 4.59 million new jobs were
created but there were also 4.38 million job separations, for a total of 210,000 new jobs.
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Definition
Structural unemployment:
Persistent, long-term unemployment caused by long-lasting shocks or permanent features of an economy that make it more difficult for some workers to find jobs.
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Structural Unemployment
One cause of structural unemployment is large, economy-wide shocks such as oil shocks.
Other causes include restructuring as a result of globalization, new information technologies, and the shift from manufacturing to services.
Structural unemployment has significant costs: • Loss of economic output. • The unemployed suffer higher levels of
stress, higher rates of suicide, and lower rates of measured happiness.
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Structural Unemployment
In the U.S. unemployment tends to increase with a shock and then decrease.
In Europe, unemployment has increased with shocks and then remained at high levels.
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Structural Unemployment
Structural unemployment has been a more serious problem in Europe than in the United States because of labor regulations.
Unemployment benefits, minimum wages, unions, and employment protection laws benefit workers.
All of these regulations are more generous and wide-ranging in Europe.
These regulations can increase unemployment rates.
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Self-Check
One cause of structural unemployment is:
a. A recession.
b. A large, economy-wide shock.
c. The time it takes to find a suitable job.
Answer: b – one cause of structural unemployment is a large, economy-wide shock.
Minimum Wage
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Wage
Quantity of Labor
Demand for labor
Supply of Labor
Minimumwage
Marketwage
Marketemployment
Employmentwith minimumwage
Unemployment
The minimum wage raises the wage, thus decreasing the quantity of labor demanded.
Labor supplywith minimumwage
Definition
Median wage:
The wage such that one-half of all workers earn wages below the median and one-half of all workers earn wages above the median.
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Minimum Wage
Both minimum wages and median wages have been higher in Western Europe than in the U.S.
This means that the minimum wage will affect more workers and create more unemployment in Europe than in the U.S.
The minimum wage is also more likely to create unemployment among young workers.
In 2005 in France 21% of workers under the age of 25 were unemployed, while in the U.S. 11% of these workers were unemployed.
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Definition
Union:
An association of workers that bargains collectively with employers over wages, benefits, and working conditions.
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Unions
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Wage
Quantity of Labor
Demand for labor
Supply of Labor
Unionwage
Marketwage
Marketemployment
Employmentwith unionwage
Unemployment
The increase in the wage decreases the quantity of labor demanded.
Labor supplywith unionwage
Unions
Unions can provide value for workers and employers alike.
Excessively strong unions have an effect similar to minimum wages.
Unions are more powerful in Europe than in the United States.
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Definition
Employment at-will doctrine:
says an employee may quit and an employer may fire an employee at any time and for any reason. There are many exceptions to the at-will doctrine, but it is the most basic U.S. employment law.
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Employment Protection Laws
Employment protection laws have the following effects: • Create valuable insurance for workers with
full-time jobs.• Make labor markets less flexible and
dynamic.• Increase the duration of unemployment.• Increase unemployment rates among young,
minority, or otherwise “riskier” workers.
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Employment Protection Laws
Hiring and Firing Costs Increase Long-Term Unemployment 35
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Self-Check
The employment at-will doctrine says that employment can be terminated:
a. At any time for any reason.
b. With two weeks’ notice.
c. At any time by employees, but employers must give notice.
Answer: a – employment can be terminated by either employer or employee, at any time and for any reason.
Definition
Active labor market policies:
Policies like work tests, job search assistance and job retraining programs that focus on getting unemployed workers back to work.
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Structural Unemployment
Factors that can increase structural unemployment:
1. Large, long-lasting shocks that require the economy to restructure. Includes oil shocks, shifts from manufacturing to services, globalization, and technology shocks.
2. Labor regulations. Includes unemployment benefits, minimum wages, powerful unions, and employment protection laws.
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Structural Unemployment
Factors that can reduce structural unemployment:
1. Active labor market policies. Includes job retraining, job-search assistance, work tests, and early employment bonuses.
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Structural Unemployment
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Milkman
Service Station Attendant
Elevator Operator
Bank Tellers
Store Cashiers
Store Greeters
Car Hops
Pony Express Riders
Town Cryer ("Two o'clock and all is well!")
Cooper (Not much demand for wooden barrels nowadays.)
The Old Lamp Lighter (of long long ago)
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=124251060
• Polaroid camera film makers• Typesetters• Airbrush touch-up artists• Telephone switchboard operator• Typewriter manufacturer• Soda jerk• Manufacturers of floppy disks and ZIP drives/disks
• Manufacturers of eight tracks and players• Supervisor of Elections• Hang Man• Muleskinners
Definition
Cyclical unemployment:
Unemployment correlated with the business cycle.
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Cyclical Unemployment
Cyclical unemployment is correlated with the ups and downs of the business cycle.
Unemployment increases dramatically during a recession for two reasons:
1. When GDP is falling, firms often lay off workers, which increases unemployment.
2. When workers are idle, it’s likely that related capital is also idle and the economy cannot be maximizing growth.
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Cyclical Unemployment
U.S. Civilian Unemployment Rate, 1948–2013 43
Cyclical Unemployment
Faster Growth in Real GDP Decreases Unemployment 44
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Self-Check
Cyclical unemployment is correlated with:
a. Innovation.
b. The business cycle.
c. Economic shocks.
Answer: b – cyclical unemployment is correlated with the business cycle.
Definition
Natural unemployment rate:
The rate of structural plus frictional unemployment.
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Natural Unemployment Rate
The underlying rates of frictional and structural unemployment change only slowly through time as major, long-lasting features of the economy change.
Cyclical employment can increase or decrease dramatically over a matter of months.
The natural rate changes only slowly through time and the actual rate of unemployment varies around the natural rate.
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Natural Unemployment Rate
The Natural Unemployment Rate: United States, 1948–201348
Labor Force Participation
The labor force participation rate is the percentage of the adult, non-institutionalized, civilian population who are working or actively looking for work.
In 2014, the labor force participation rate was:
Labor force = 155.4 million x 100 = 62.8% Adult population = 247.4 million
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100population Adult
force Labor
population Adult
EmployedUnemployedLFPR
Labor Force Participation
Labor force participation is affected by life cycle effects and demographics.
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Labor Force Participation
Labor force participation is also affected by incentives. 51
Taxes discourage work, while benefits encourage
non-work.
Labor Force Participation
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Differences in Incentives• Incentives and the rise in female labor force
participation: 1948 -2008: number of women aged 25-54 in the
paid labor force increased from 35% to 75%. What caused this?
• Cultural factors» Rise of feminism» Growing acceptance of equality
• Move from a manufacturing to a service economy.
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Self-Check
Labor force participation is affected by:
a. The unemployment rate.
b. Life cycle effects and demographics.
c. The business cycle.
Answer: b – life cycle effects and demographics.
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Takeaway
You should know how unemployment, the unemployment rate, and the labor force participation rate are defined and calculated.
You should also be able to define frictional, structural, and cyclical unemployment.
You should know about the factors that increase or decrease the labor force participation rate.