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Modelling of Modelling of the Lithuanian the Lithuanian energy energy sector sector A.Galinis A.Galinis Lithuanian Energy Institute

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Page 1: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Modelling of Modelling of the Lithuanian the Lithuanian energy energy sectorsector

A.GalinisA.Galinis

Lithuanian Energy Institute

Page 2: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Plan of presentationPlan of presentation

Overview of research area and selected modelsOverview of research area and selected models:: Model for analysis of Model for analysis of energyenergy sector development of sector development of Baltic statesBaltic states,, Model for analysis of Model for analysis of powerpower sector development of sector development of Baltic statesBaltic states,, Model for analysis of Model for analysis of energyenergy sector development of sector development of LithuaniaLithuania,, Model for analysis of Model for analysis of district heatingdistrict heating sector development of sector development of Kaunas municipalityKaunas municipality..

Overview of few studies prepared using various modelsOverview of few studies prepared using various models:: Impact of unit sizeImpact of unit size of the new Visaginas NPPof the new Visaginas NPP to the requirement of to the requirement of reserve capacityreserve capacity

and future development ofand future development of power systempower system. . Under contract with LEO LT, Under contract with LEO LT, 20092009,, Use of Use of renewable energyrenewable energy sources (biosources (bio--fuels, hydroenergy, solar energy, fuels, hydroenergy, solar energy,

geothermal energy, municipal waste, etc.) for production of energy. geothermal energy, municipal waste, etc.) for production of energy. Under contract with Ministry of energy, Under contract with Ministry of energy, 20102010,,

Strategy for development of Kaunas Strategy for development of Kaunas district heating sectordistrict heating sector. Under contract with . Under contract with Kaunas municipality, Kaunas municipality, 20122012..

Page 3: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Area of researchArea of research

Modelling and analysis of energy system development and operation in the region (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland includinglinks with third countries);

Modelling and analysis of energy system development and operationof a single country (Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Serbia, Mongolia, Sudan, Nigeria, etc.);

Modelling and analysis of single energy sector (Power sector, district heating sector, etc.);

Modelling and analysis of a single enterprise (Refinery, system ofdistrict heating, power plant, boiler-house).

Page 4: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Modelling and analysis of energy sModelling and analysis of energy sectorector development development in the in the Baltic Baltic region region

Fuel supply

Model of Estonian energy sector

Model of Latvian energy sector

Model of Lithuanian energy sector

Regional constrains,regional policymeasures

System ofelectricity and

heat generation

anddistribution

Finalenergy

demand

Systemof other

fuelsupply

Systemof gassupply

Systemof oil

supply

Oil products

Oil products

Gas

Gas

Other fuels

Other fuels

Electricity

HeatElectricityimport

Page 5: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Model of the Model of the Baltic power systemBaltic power system

Country 1

Impo

rt

Expo

rt

Country N

Impo

rtIm

port

Expo

rtEx

port

Sector of fuel

supply

Agregated electricity

distribution network in area of

each substations of the electricity transmission

network.

Expl

icitl

y gi

ven

elec

tric

ity d

eman

d

Small generators of electricity and district heat

In th

e ar

ea o

f eac

h su

bsta

tion

of th

e el

ectri

city

tran

smis

sion

net

wor

k

Agregated networks of district heat distribution in area of each substations of the electricity transmission network

Mar

ket o

f dis

trict

he

at

Sector of centralized electricity supply and district heat supply from CHP

High voltage electricity

transmission network

Agregated midle voltage electricity transmission-distribution network in

area of each substations of the electricity

transmission network.

Small generators of electricity and district heat

In th

e ar

ea o

f eac

h su

bsta

tion

of th

e el

ectri

city

tran

smis

sion

net

wor

k

Expl

icitl

y gi

ven

elec

tric

ity d

eman

dM

arke

t of d

istr

ict

heat

High voltage electricity

transmission network

Agregated midle voltage electricity transmission-distribution network in

area of each substations of the electricity

transmission network.

Sector of centralized electricity supply and district heat supply from CHP

Agregated networks of district heat distribution in area of each substations of the electricity transmission network

Agregated electricity

distribution network in area of

each substations of the electricity transmission

network.

Page 6: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

RussiaNordel

Baltic power system and links with third countriesBaltic power system and links with third countries

Polish PSand link with UCTE

EstLink

LitPolLink

SwedLit

IPS/UPS

Page 7: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Representation of Polish power systemRepresentation of Polish power system

Page 8: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Representation of links with Representation of links with UCTE, Nordel,UCTE, Nordel,IPS/UPSIPS/UPS

Lines:Commissioning date,Throughput capacity,Losses,Investment and O&M cost,

Markets:Availability of electricity (bounds on flows in lines),Market prices and their variation (variable cost),Availability of reserve capacities of different type,

Others

Page 9: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

How much primary reserve?it is necessary secondary reserve?to have tertiary reserve?

How much it primary reserve? is necessary to secondary reserve?have locally tertiary reserve?

How much it UCTE?is possible to NORDEL?get from IPS/UPS?

Depend on unitsize

Depend on normatives ofsystems

Depend on througputcapacity of links,import-export flows,type of links

Where, when, how big and what kind reserve capacity should be located?

What should be structure of power plants, their load, import-export of electricity in order to fulfill all this?

Will power system remain stableafter failure of nuclear unit?

Size of nuclear unit and rSize of nuclear unit and reserve capacityeserve capacity

Page 10: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Electricity productionElectricity production

Electricity production in Estonia

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

Year

GW

h

ExportImportNew RES CHPNew gas CHPNew oil/gas CHPNew coal CHPNew coal PPNew CCGTRe Viru CHPRe Balti&Eesti PPDiesel PPHydro PPWind PPEx other CHPEx Viru CHPEx Iru CHPEx Eesti PPEx Balti PPTotal demandFinal demand

Electricity production in Latvia

-10000

-5000

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

Year

GW

h

ExportImportNew waste inscNew hydro PPNew coal PPNew CCGTNew wood CHPNew other CHPNew Riga CHP-2New Riga CHP-1Wind PPSmall CHPEx Small HPPEx Riga CHP-2Ex Riga CHP-1Ex Daugava HPPTotal demandFinal demand

Electricity production in Lithuania

-20000

-10000

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2001

2004

2007

2010

2013

2016

2019

2022

2025

2028

2031

2034

2037

2040

2043

Year

GW

h

From KalNPP

Export

Import

Kruonis HPSPP

New Mazeikiai unit

New coal PP

New RES CHP

New gas CHP

New CCGT PP

Wind PP

Small gas CHP

Lifosa CHP

Hydro PP

Klaipeda CHP

Mazeikiai CHP

Petrasiunai CHP

Kaunas CHP

Vilnius CHP-2

Vilnius CHP-3

Lithuanian 300

Lithuanian 150

Ignalina NPP

Total demand

Final demand

Electricity production (netto) in Poland

-50000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

2037

2039

2041

2043

2045

Year

GW

h

From Kal NPP

ExportImport

HPSPP

New RES PP

New nuclear PPNew CCGT PP

New lignite PP

New coal PP

New coal CHPNew gas CHP

Wind PP

Hydro PP

Ex CHPEx Katowice PP

Ex Bialsko Polnoc PP

Ex Bialsko Biala PP

Ex Jaworzno 2 PPEx Halemba PP

Ex Blachownia PP

Ex Stalowa Wola PP

Ex Skawina PPEx Belchatow PP

Ex Turow PP

Ex Potnow PP

Ex Adamow PPEx Konin PP

Ex Kozienice PP

Ex Dolna Odra PP

Ex Polaniec PPEx Rybnik PP

Ex Laziska PP

Ex Lagiska PP

Ex Siersza PPEx Ostroleka PP

Ex Opole PP

Ex Jaworzno PP

Total dem andFinal dem and

Page 11: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

2020150 MW units at Lithuanian PP 300 8 8 28 36 0 0 1 2300 MW units at Lithuanian PP 1200 0 0 0 970 0 0 0 24New CCGT unit at Lithuanian PP 400 160 360 160 360 8 8 8 8Vilnius CHP-3 400 69 43 217 272 3 0 8 8Vilnius CHP-2 18 0 0 16 16 0 0 0 0Kaunas CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Kaunas CCGT CHP 163 88 146 146 146 3 3 3 3Petrasiunai CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mazeikiai CHP 35 22 22 22 25 0 0 0 0Klaipeda CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Ignalina NPP unit 2 1600 0 0 1316 1341 0 0 48 48New Ignalina NPP unit 1 1600 1253 1253 1316 1316 0 0 0 0New Ignalina NPP unit 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Ignalina CCGT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Kruonis HPSPP 800 0 0 0 36 0 0 0 0Kaunas hydro PP 101 20 73 20 91 1 1 1 1Small hydro PP 31 12 12 15 15 0 0 0 0Industrial CHP 33 30 30 0 30 0 0 0 0Wind PP 415 70 70 162 0 0 0 0 0New Panevezys CCGT CHP 70 8 25 57 57 0 0 0 0New coal PP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New GT CHP 74 37 41 46 55 0 0 0 0Modular CHP 84 29 26 49 56 0 0 0 0Renewable CHP 77 42 53 65 69 0 0 0 0Total available 7401 1847 2161 3636 4891 16 12 70 94Total supplied 787* 1323* 1159* 1935* 16 12 70 94

Summer Min

Summer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Summer Min

Summer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Summer working day

Winter working day

Summer working day

Winter working day

Generation, MW Accesible primary reserve, MW

LEO9a4 Variantas5 Installed capacity in Lithuania,

MW

Elektrinės vardas

Generation, primary, secondary, tertiary reserves. Lithuania (Generation, primary, secondary, tertiary reserves. Lithuania (11))

Page 12: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

150 MW units at Lithuanian PP 0 0 0 0 292 292 272 264300 MW units at Lithuanian PP 0 0 0 0 1200 1200 1200 230New CCGT unit at Lithuanian PP 240 40 240 40 240 40 240 40Vilnius CHP-3 0 0 0 0 331 357 183 128Vilnius CHP-2 0 0 0 0 18 18 2 2Kaunas CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Kaunas CCGT CHP 75 16 16 16 75 16 16 16Petrasiunai CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Mazeikiai CHP 0 0 0 0 13 13 13 10Klaipeda CHP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Ignalina NPP unit 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 284 259New Ignalina NPP unit 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Ignalina NPP unit 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Ignalina CCGT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0Kruonis HPSPP 800 800 800 764 800 800 800 764Kaunas hydro PP 81 27 81 10 81 27 81 10Small hydro PP 19 19 16 16 19 19 16 16Industrial CHP 0 0 0 0 3 3 33 3Wind PP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New Panevezys CCGT CHP 62 45 13 13 62 45 13 13New coal PP 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0New GT CHP 37 32 28 19 37 32 28 19Modular CHP 0 0 0 0 55 58 35 28Renewable CHP 0 0 0 0 35 24 12 8Total available 1313 980 1194 879 3260 2947 3228 1811Total supplied 637 721 1057 742 1730 1811 2204 1811

Summer Min

Summer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Summer Min

Summer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Summer working day

Winter working day

Summer working day

Winter working day

Accesible secondary reserve, MW

Accesible primary, secondary and tertiary

reserve, MWLEO9a4 Variantas5

Elektrinės vardas

Generation, primary, secondary, tertiary reserves. Lithuania (Generation, primary, secondary, tertiary reserves. Lithuania (22))

Page 13: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

202011344 2891 4058 5943 7154 53 53 116 141

1000 0 0 -999.9 -254.6 100 100 100 1000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1000 -842.8 -472.9 -1015 -1015 1100 1100 1100 11000 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

2048 3585 3929 5885 1253 1253 1316 13411633* 2955* 2928* 4735* 1253 1253 1316 1341

Flow from IPS/UPSTotal availableTotal required*Galutiniai poreikiai

Generation by PP in EE, LV and LTFlow from FinlandFlow from SwedenFlow from UCTE

Baltic regionSummer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Summer working day

Winter working day

Summer working day

Winter working day

LEO9a4 Case5 Instaled capacity. Flows via lines, MW

Generation, MW Accesible primary reserve, MW

Source of reserve capacity Summer Min

Summer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Summer Min

Operation regime of the Baltic power system during Operation regime of the Baltic power system during maximal and minimal load in 2020maximal and minimal load in 2020

202011344 1385 1385 1449 1473 2691 2691 2881 29551000 0 0 0 0 100 100 100 100

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01000 0 0 0 0 1100 1100 1100 1100

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 01385 1385 1449 1473 3891 3891 4081 41551385 1385 1449 1473 3891 3891 4082 4155

Summer Min

Summer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Accesible primary, secondary and tertiary

reserve, MW

Summer working day

Winter working day

Summer working day

Winter working day

Flow from IPS/UPSTotal availableTotal required

Accesible secondary reserve, MW

Summer Min

Summer Max

Winter Min

Winter Max

Generation by PP in EE, LV and LTFlow from FinlandFlow from SwedenFlow from UCTE

LEO9a4 Case5 Instaled capacity. Flows via lines, MW

Source of reserve capacity

Baltic region

Page 14: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

ConclusionsConclusions

Due to lack of primary reserve unit size of even 500 MW of the new NPP is to big for Baltic states if their power system would operate isolatedand no reserve capacity would be obtained from UCTE, Nordel or IPS/UPS.

Unit size of 1600 MW is to big when power system of Baltic states operates synchronously with UCTE but capacity of the link is only 1000 MW. 1300 MW is acceptable. In the case larger unit is installed it’s operating capacity is reduced in order not to have possible disturbance in the system larger than available reserve capacity.

Unit size of 1600 MW is acceptable when power system of Baltic states operates synchronously with IPS/UPS.

Page 15: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

CharacteristicsCharacteristics of of the the energy energy sector model of Lithuaniasector model of LithuaniaMunicipality A

Municipality Z

Land for growing of agricultural

products

Technologys for gathering and transportation of

agricultural by-products

Technologies for conversion of RES and distribution of products

Land for growing of energy crops

Technologies for growing, gathering and

transportation of energy crops

Demand of electricity, heat and

other products

ForestsTechnologies of

lumbering, transportation of wood and waste

Waste of cattle-ranches, industry,

sewageTechnologies for handling

of municipal wasteTechnologies for production of

heat and electricity

Municipal waste

Market of RES, technologies for their transportation at the

country level

Other countries

Market of other fuelsImport of other fuels and

energy

Export of other fuels and energy

Market of products

from RES, transportati

on technologie

s

Import of RES

Exportt of RES

Export of various products from RES

Import of various products from RES

Other RES (geothermal, hydro, wind, solar, ect.)

Technologies for

converssion of RES

and municipal

waste

Time period analysed 2006-2035,

5 time periods in a year,

60 types of fuels and energy,

About 8 thousands technologies andprocesses, ~2 millions variables,

From the set of existing and possiblenew technologies according least costcriterion select technologies,fuel and energy forms which satisfy final demand of consumers duringtime period analysed,

Linear programming.

Energy systems of all 60 municipalities

Energy market and large energy objects

Page 16: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Alternatives under considerationAlternatives under considerationElectricity sector:

a) Future operation of existing power plants and their refurbishment,b) Construction of new power plants (Wind, solar, hydro, gas PP, RES PP,

nuclear PP, etc.);

Sector of district heating:a) Future operation of existing boiler houses and CHP, their modernisation,

change of fuel types,b) Construction of new boiler houses and CHP on fossil fuel, bio fuel and municipal

waste, use of heat pumps;

Sector of decentralized heat supply:a) Future operation of existing equipments for space heating and hot water preparation,b) Construction of new equipments for space heating and hot water preparation

(bio fuel, fossil fuel, solar, geothermal, etc.);

Sector for production of bio fuel:a) Production of bio components from agricultural products for blending with

gasoline and diesel,b) Production of hard bio fuels from wood, wood waste, forestry waste, agricultural

products, etc.,c) Production of biogas from stock-rising waste, industrial and sewerage waste,

agricultural products, residues from production of liquid bio fuels, etc.;

Page 17: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

RES in gross final demandRES in gross final demand

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

%

Year

Base HP

External cost HP

External cost expected HP

Expected HP

Base LP

External cost LP

External cost expected LP

Expected LP

Page 18: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

RES in various sectorsRES in various sectors

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

%

Year

Base HP

External cost HP

External cost expected HP

Expected HP

Base LP

External cost LP

External cost expected LP

Expected LP0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

%

Year

Base HP

External cost HP

External cost expected HP

Expected HP

Base LP

External cost LP

External cost expected LP

Expected LP

ElectricityDistrict heating

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

%

Year

Share of decentralised heat generated from RES

Base HP

External cost HP

External cost expected HP

Expected HP

Base LP

External cost LP

External cost expected LP

Expected LP

Page 19: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

0

20

40

60

80

100

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

%

Metai

Structure of fuel and energy used in the countryStructure of fuel and energy used in the country

Wood

Gas

Light oil products

CoalHeavy oil productsLPG

Heat from chemicalreactions and nuclear fuel

Imported electricity

Straw, grassBiogas

Municipal wasteShare of RES

Page 20: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

%

Metai

AEI struktūra

Vėjo energija

Hidroenergija

Saules energija

Seklioji geotermija

Biodujos

Šiaudai, žolės ir jų produktai

Mediena ir jos produktai

Wind

Hydro

Solar

Geothermal

Biogas

Straw, grass and theirproductsWood and its products

Structure of RES

Year

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

0.40

0.4520

10

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Metai

%

Saules energija

Seklioji geotermija

Solar

Geothermal

Year

Page 21: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Production of electricityProduction of electricity

-2000

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

GW

h

Metai

Importas/eksportas

Kitos savivaldybių elektrinės

Savivaldybių AEI elektrinės

Anglies elektrinė

Kitos TE

Nauji KCDT blokai

Saulės elektrinės

Vėjo elektrinės

Hidroelektrinės

Lifosa

Ignalinos AE

Klaipėdos TE

Naujas Mažeikių TE blokas

Mažeikių TE

Petrašiūnų TE

Kauno KCDT TE

Kauno TE

Vilniaus KCDT TE

Vilniaus TE-2

Vilniaus TE-3

Lietuvos 300

Lietuvos 150

Galutiniai poreikiai

Wind PP

Lithuanian CCGT

CHP on RES

CHP on fossil fuel

Import

Ignalina NPP

Visaginas NPP

Hydro

150 MW

Lithuanian PP300 MW

units

Vilnius CHP-3Kaunas CHP

Final demand

Page 22: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Production of district heat according fuel typesProduction of district heat according fuel types

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Metai

GW

h

Wood

Straw, grass

BiogasGas and liquid fuel

Municipal wasteHeat from chemical reactions and nuclear fuel

Coal-peat

Electricity and geothermal heat

Page 23: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Šilumos siurbliai 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.5 13.0 20.1 27.2 34.3

Nauji ekonomaizeriai 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.9 12.0 11.2 10.3 13.8 17.3 20.8

Katilinės 6869.2 6534.2 6311.0 7157.2 5142.1 5136.5 5306.3 5475.9 4171.9 2867.8 2844.0 2820.1 2885.9 2951.7 3017.6

Elektrinės 5573.5 5940.2 6130.3 5885.8 7587.3 7709.1 7722.6 7736.0 9849.8 11963.4 11852.6 11741.6 11702.2 11662.9 11623.5

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

MW

h

Metai

Šilumos gamyba

Power plants

Boiler houses

Heat pumpsEconomizersBoiler housesPower plants

Production of district heatProduction of district heat

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0.01

0.07

0.13

0.18

0.24

0.29

0.35

0.40

0.46

0.51

0.57

0.63

0.68

0.74

0.79

0.85

0.90

0.96

Apkr

ova,

san

t. v

nt.

Laikas metuose, sant. vnt.

Dujų/skysto kuro katilai

Dujų-krosnių kuro katilai

Kieto iškastinio kuro katilaiDujų-biodujų TE

CCGT TE

Biokuro TE

Kom atliekų TE

Gas boilers

Gas &liquid f. boilers

Hard f. boilers

Gas & biogas CHP

CCGT CHP

Bio fuel CHP

Waste incinerators

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Metai

RES

Fossil fuel

Page 24: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Installed capacity of boilers in municipalitiesInstalled capacity of boilers in municipalities

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

S60

S58

S56

S54

S52

S50

S48

S46

S44

S42

S40

S38

S36

S34

S32

S30

S28

S26

S24

S22

S20

S18

S16

S14

S12

S10 S

8S

6S

4S

2

S a viva ldybė

MW

2010

2020

Total

0102030405060708090

S60

S58

S56

S54

S52

S50

S48

S46

S44

S42

S40

S38

S36

S34

S32

S30

S28

S26

S24

S22

S20

S18

S16

S14

S12

S10 S

8

S6

S4

S2

S a viva ldybė

MW

2020

New bio-fuel boilers

Page 25: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

0.0

500.0

1000.0

1500.0

2000.0

2500.0

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Bazinis

Išorinių kaštų

Išorinių kaštų siektinas

Esamas siektinas

Išorinių kaštų siektinasC

Esamas siektinas C

Faktinės investici jos2005-08

Investments into electricity and district heat production units, Investments into electricity and district heat production units, Mln LtMln Lt

Actual investments in 2005-2008 made 45-62% from calculated values in 2010-2020 m.

Base HP

External cost HP

External cost expected HP

Expected HP

External cost HP C

Expected HP C

Actual investments in2005-2008

Page 26: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Model of district heating system (Model of district heating system (11))

KTE

Inkaro

Silko

PTE

Pergales

D16

D05

D03

D13

D12D11

D10D20

D19D17

D23

D22

D21

D29D28

D36

D35

D34

D32D31

D30

D40

D39D38

D48

D47

D45

D43

D42

D41

D49D57

D56

D54 D53

D52

D51

D60

D59

D61

Various modernisation options of generation sources,

Renovation of buildings and consequently reduced demand,

Renovation of district heat supply network taking into account building renovation,

Revenue from sold objects,

Special approach for counting heat losses in the network.

Page 27: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Model of district heating system (2)Model of district heating system (2)(Boiler(Boiler--house)house)

Page 28: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

MW

Metai

Kiti šaltiniai

UAB "Fortum"

UAB "Valnetas" biokuro VŠK

UAB "MD Kaunas" biokuro VŠK

UAB "GECO (SSPC)" biokuro VŠK

UAB "SSPC-Taikos" biokuro TE

UAB "Optina" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Omniteksas" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Pram. energija" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Alma" biokuro VŠK

UAB "E5&CO" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Lorizon energy"

Kauno elektrinė

Petrašiūnų elektrinė

Inkaro katilinė

Šilko katilinė

Pergalės katilinė

Galutiniai poreikiai be taupymo

Poreikiai įskaitant nuostolius

Poreikiai įskaitant taupymą

Dynamics of installed capacities in Kaunas district hDynamics of installed capacities in Kaunas district heateating ing systemsystem

Page 29: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

GW

h

Metai

Kiti šaltiniai

UAB "Fortum"

UAB "Valnetas" biokuro VŠK

UAB "MD Kaunas" biokuro VŠK

UAB "GECO (SSPC)" biokuro VŠK

UAB "SSPC-Taikos" biokuro TE

UAB "Optina" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Omniteksas" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Pram. energija" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Alma" biokuro VŠK

UAB "E5&CO" biokuro VŠK

UAB "Lorizon energy"

Kauno elektrinė

Petrašiūnų elektrinė

Inkaro katilinė

Šilko katilinė

Pergalės katilinė

Galutiniai poreikiai be taupymo

Poreikiai įskaitant nuostolius

Poreikiai įskaitant taupymą

Dynamics of district hDynamics of district heat production in Kaunaseat production in Kaunas

Page 30: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Seasonal variation of district hSeasonal variation of district heat production in Kaunaseat production in Kaunas

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4

Sausis Vasaris Kovas Balandis Gegužė Birželis Liepa Rugpjūtis Rugsėjis Spalis Lapkritis Gruodis

MW

Dujiniai VŠK

Biomasės VŠK

Dujinės TE

Kitos technologijos

Biomasės TE

Komunal. atliekų TE

Year 2019

Page 31: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Evolution of heat production costEvolution of heat production cost

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

Lt/M

Wh

Lt 2006

Einamųjų metų Lt

2% inflationActual inflation

Page 32: Modelling of the Lithuanian energy sector · of gas supply System of oil supply Oil products Oil products Gas Gas Other fuels Other fuels Electricity Heat Electricity import. Model

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention