modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions
DESCRIPTION
Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions. CSIRO Water for a healthy country flagship. Jai Vaze, Francis Chiew, Nick Potter, David Post, Cuan Petheram, Julien Lerat, Jin Teng, Biao Wang. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Modelling experiments with conceptual rainfall-runoff models under non-stationary conditions
Jai Vaze, Francis Chiew, Nick Potter, David Post, Cuan Petheram, Julien Lerat, Jin Teng, Biao Wang 22 July 2013, Session Hw15S1, IAHS-IAPSO-IASPEI Assembly, Gothenburg, Sweden
CSIRO WATER FOR A HEALTHY COUNTRY FLAGSHIP
A water information R & D alliance between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country Flagship
Background• Number of recent studies investigating/highlighting hydro-climate nonstationarity
Evaluation criteria
• Level 1
• Calibrate the hydrological model using complete period
• Calculate the efficiency criteria (NSE, bias, NSEiQ) for each of the 5 sub-periods
• Level 2
• Calibrate the hydrological model using each of the 5 sub-periods
• Calculate the efficiency criteria (NSE, bias, NSEiQ) for the complete period as well as each of the 5 sub-periods
• Level 3
• Improvement of model behaviour/performance in non-stationary conditions
Objective function: NSE-bias of daily streamflow 2.5
Q 5 ln(1 )F NSE WBE
Data and Models• Modelling experiments using data from seven catchment
• Axe Creek (Aus)• Durance (France)• Ferson (USA)• Flinders (Aus)• Gilbert (Aus)• Kamp-zwettl (Austria)• Lissbro (Sweden)
• Six conceptual daily rainfall-runoff models• Sacramento (14)• SIMHYD (7)• GR4J (4)• AWBM (6)• SMARG (8)• IHACRES (7)
IAHS Gothenburg HW15S1 | Jai Vaze |
Changes in dominant hydrological processes(during long dry spells)
• Changing rainfall-runoff relationship.
• Interception activities (like farm dams) intercepting proportionally more water during long dry spells.
• Reduced surface water and groundwater connectivity during long dry spells.
• Most rainfall filling the empty groundwater store post 1997.
[Petheram et al., MODSIM, 2011]
Axe Creek catchment
0.36 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.26 0.510.28 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.33 -0.110.78 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.72 0.610.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.72 0.550.42 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.30 0.53
-0.98 -1.05 -1.06 -1.06 -1.14 -0.31
0.77 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.580.81 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.76 0.600.74 0.74 0.75 0.74 0.69 0.500.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.72 0.450.63 0.57 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.47
-0.39 -1.02 -0.58 -0.61 0.00 0.47
0.02 0.15 0.09 0.12 0.01 -0.57-0.09 0.01 -0.04 -0.01 -0.08 -0.59-0.04 0.09 0.03 0.05 -0.08 -0.61-0.07 0.06 0.00 0.02 -0.10 -0.650.09 0.26 0.18 0.19 0.04 -0.602.33 3.03 2.72 2.71 2.06 0.02
0
500
1000
1500
Axe Creek catchment – GR4J
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 236.9 km2
Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
120
240
1973-1979 1980-1986 1987-1993 1994-2000 2001-2007
P=5143, Q=722 P=4199, Q=473 P=4867, Q=552 P=3872, Q=258 P=3318, Q=35
Rc=0.14 Rc=0.11 Rc=0.11 Rc=0.07 Rc=0.01
[Vaze et al., 2010, Journal of Hydrology]
Ferson catchment - AWBM 0
500
1000
1500
0
400
800
0.66 0.63 0.60 0.63 0.64 0.630.59 0.61 0.58 0.54 0.58 0.490.51 0.53 0.58 0.41 0.52 0.370.72 0.67 0.61 0.74 0.69 0.710.71 0.68 0.68 0.66 0.72 0.640.65 0.60 0.56 0.64 0.64 0.68
Completep1p2p3p4p5
0.04 0.03 -0.01 0.05 -0.03 0.170.13 0.09 0.05 0.15 0.04 0.270.07 0.11 0.04 0.08 0.00 0.200.05 0.01 -0.01 0.06 -0.03 0.180.16 0.14 0.08 0.16 0.03 0.31
-0.09 -0.11 -0.14 -0.09 -0.14 0.01
Completep1p2p3p4p5
0.43 0.17 0.38 -0.30 0.40 0.470.59 0.27 0.53 -2.04 0.59 0.590.29 0.02 0.24 0.41 0.30 0.360.45 0.16 0.42 -0.32 0.45 0.560.41 0.11 0.34 -1.26 0.31 0.400.58 0.40 0.52 -0.94 0.37 0.61
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 134 km2
Growing urbanisation of the catchment:1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%
Ferson catchment – GR4J 0
500
1000
1500
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 134 km2
Growing urbanisation of the catchment:1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%0
400
800
0.72 0.70 0.70 0.70 0.71 0.680.67 0.69 0.68 0.59 0.69 0.560.63 0.65 0.66 0.59 0.64 0.530.76 0.74 0.73 0.78 0.75 0.730.77 0.77 0.76 0.74 0.78 0.700.70 0.67 0.66 0.69 0.68 0.72
0.01 -0.06 -0.05 0.01 -0.08 0.190.07 -0.01 0.01 0.08 -0.03 0.260.08 0.00 0.02 0.08 -0.02 0.280.00 -0.07 -0.05 -0.01 -0.09 0.170.13 0.04 0.06 0.13 0.02 0.34
-0.13 -0.18 -0.17 -0.13 -0.20 0.01
0.66 0.64 0.59 0.68 0.68 0.590.63 0.63 0.60 0.58 0.62 0.590.61 0.57 0.51 0.68 0.65 0.520.64 0.65 0.60 0.63 0.65 0.560.65 0.63 0.58 0.67 0.66 0.580.58 0.61 0.60 0.45 0.57 0.53
Ferson catchment – IHACRES0
500
1000
1500
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 134 km2
Growing urbanisation of the catchment:1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%0
400
800
0.66 0.58 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.630.58 0.63 0.59 0.49 0.58 0.470.58 0.48 0.63 0.42 0.58 0.530.68 0.65 0.60 0.72 0.65 0.660.65 0.54 0.65 0.53 0.70 0.570.68 0.55 0.60 0.65 0.59 0.71
0.00 -0.12 -0.07 0.03 -0.08 0.100.06 0.00 0.00 0.19 -0.05 0.190.05 -0.06 -0.02 0.08 -0.03 0.15
-0.03 -0.14 -0.12 -0.01 -0.10 0.070.08 -0.03 -0.07 0.09 0.00 0.19
-0.10 -0.27 -0.13 -0.11 -0.15 -0.01
0.13 0.36 -0.83 0.39 0.33 0.050.19 0.55 0.33 0.53 0.32 0.090.01 0.19 0.30 0.34 0.20 -0.060.13 0.42 -0.26 0.51 0.33 0.010.03 0.32 -2.51 0.22 0.32 -0.070.46 0.54 -5.60 0.44 0.30 0.39
Ferson catchment – Sacramento0
500
1000
1500
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 134 km2
Growing urbanisation of the catchment:1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%
0.73 0.69 0.69 0.71 0.70 0.710.66 0.70 0.67 0.64 0.63 0.600.60 0.60 0.63 0.56 0.53 0.520.78 0.71 0.73 0.80 0.75 0.750.78 0.73 0.72 0.76 0.80 0.740.72 0.68 0.68 0.70 0.70 0.75
0.02 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 -0.05 0.110.09 0.02 0.05 0.08 0.02 0.190.06 0.00 0.03 0.04 -0.02 0.170.03 -0.03 -0.01 0.01 -0.03 0.120.09 0.01 0.05 0.07 0.01 0.23
-0.11 -0.15 -0.14 -0.11 -0.15 -0.04
0.49 -0.93 0.36 -1.58 0.23 0.430.57 0.37 0.59 -1.35 0.23 0.470.38 -0.13 0.31 0.24 0.33 0.360.49 0.47 0.39 -0.27 0.56 0.330.46 -6.16 0.42 -7.01 -0.12 0.390.59 -0.58 -1.30 -1.47 -1.07 0.51
0
400
800
Ferson catchment – Simhyd0
500
1000
1500
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 134 km2
Growing urbanisation of the catchment:1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%
0.66 0.64 0.62 0.63 0.61 0.640.61 0.66 0.63 0.51 0.60 0.500.53 0.55 0.59 0.45 0.52 0.430.67 0.56 0.52 0.74 0.53 0.690.64 0.67 0.67 0.52 0.70 0.570.70 0.67 0.65 0.68 0.65 0.72
0.04 -0.03 -0.04 0.11 -0.05 0.130.13 0.04 0.01 0.21 -0.01 0.230.14 0.07 0.05 0.20 0.01 0.210.00 -0.06 -0.06 0.07 -0.06 0.090.16 0.06 0.05 0.26 0.03 0.29
-0.11 -0.15 -0.15 -0.06 -0.16 -0.04
0.52 0.55 0.49 0.49 -0.57 -1.650.24 0.35 0.31 0.15 -1.76 -3.570.67 0.59 0.46 0.60 0.20 -0.170.31 0.39 0.40 0.40 -3.84 -7.830.46 0.54 0.51 0.41 -0.63 -1.66
-0.38 0.06 0.14 -0.32 -1.94 -5.54
0
400
800
Ferson catchment – SMARG0
500
1000
1500
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 134 km2
Growing urbanisation of the catchment:1980 ~22% to 2010 ~ 64%
0.64 0.63 0.61 0.61 0.63 0.580.62 0.65 0.60 0.52 0.64 0.440.53 0.56 0.59 0.45 0.53 0.320.66 0.61 0.57 0.71 0.60 0.640.69 0.70 0.67 0.64 0.71 0.550.64 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.64 0.67
-0.01 -0.05 -0.03 0.01 -0.04 0.110.05 0.01 -0.01 0.11 0.03 0.150.02 -0.02 0.03 0.04 0.03 0.17
-0.02 -0.05 -0.01 0.00 -0.06 0.090.08 0.02 0.08 0.11 0.00 0.27
-0.13 -0.16 -0.13 -0.11 -0.14 -0.03
-9.13 -9.35 -4.55 -56.01 -13.96 -37.38-7.77 -0.61 -19.96 -122.47 -11.17 -103.25-3.40 -2.16 -0.31 -32.76 -8.17 -22.58
-16.61 -3.93 -3.65 -140.30 -26.47 -106.84-12.82 -4.46 -4.78 -83.05 -24.91 -47.55-45.19 -103.74 -22.25 -105.45 -38.80 -51.70
0
400
800
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
120
240
0
500
1000
1500
Axe Creek catchment - AWBM
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 236.9 km2
Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.
0.43 -0.19 0.39 0.03 0.16 -0.360.30 0.11 0.30 0.39 0.40 -0.150.53 -0.66 0.51 0.29 0.37 -0.890.56 -0.33 0.60 0.27 0.37 -0.400.42 -0.38 0.40 0.08 0.20 -0.54
-0.51 -1.25 -0.61 -1.10 -0.93 -1.27
-0.01 0.08 0.01 0.15 -0.08 -0.48-0.12 0.01 -0.11 0.04 -0.20 -0.47-0.02 0.14 -0.01 0.17 -0.11 -0.41-0.11 0.01 -0.09 0.01 -0.13 -0.61-0.02 0.01 0.03 0.14 -0.01 -0.562.67 1.87 2.93 3.22 2.67 0.19
0.60 0.59 0.60 0.58 0.55 0.320.62 0.66 0.62 0.60 0.57 0.290.65 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.62 0.400.55 0.53 0.55 0.59 0.54 0.240.48 0.43 0.48 0.48 0.50 0.20
-1.14 -0.75 -1.06 -0.75 -0.39 0.20
0.36 0.32 0.31 0.31 0.26 0.510.28 0.30 0.31 0.31 0.33 -0.110.78 0.77 0.76 0.76 0.72 0.610.80 0.80 0.79 0.79 0.72 0.550.42 0.38 0.37 0.37 0.30 0.53
-0.98 -1.05 -1.06 -1.06 -1.14 -0.31
0.77 0.76 0.76 0.76 0.74 0.580.81 0.82 0.80 0.81 0.76 0.600.74 0.74 0.75 0.74 0.69 0.500.75 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.72 0.450.63 0.57 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.47
-0.39 -1.02 -0.58 -0.61 0.00 0.47
0.02 0.15 0.09 0.12 0.01 -0.57-0.09 0.01 -0.04 -0.01 -0.08 -0.59-0.04 0.09 0.03 0.05 -0.08 -0.61-0.07 0.06 0.00 0.02 -0.10 -0.650.09 0.26 0.18 0.19 0.04 -0.602.33 3.03 2.72 2.71 2.06 0.02
0
500
1000
1500
Axe Creek catchment – GR4J
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 236.9 km2
Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
120
240
0.56 0.42 -0.86 -0.93 -0.37 -0.490.56 0.42 -2.63 -2.68 -1.72 -0.950.31 -0.11 -1.46 -1.64 -0.83 -1.220.49 0.27 -1.92 -1.97 -0.71 -0.690.15 -0.07 -2.50 -2.75 -1.97 -0.82
-0.40 -0.40 -0.15 -0.37 -0.24 -1.41
0.00 -0.05 0.08 0.18 0.53 1.530.02 0.00 0.06 0.23 0.56 1.15
-0.08 -0.06 0.01 0.05 0.21 2.90-0.13 -0.19 -0.03 0.00 0.33 0.48-0.19 -0.19 -0.07 -0.12 0.00 2.330.68 0.13 1.21 0.65 1.04 -0.01
0.63 0.61 0.62 0.60 0.35 -1.330.63 0.64 0.63 0.61 0.51 -0.620.65 0.64 0.66 0.64 0.58 -3.200.59 0.56 0.57 0.61 0.44 -0.380.52 0.49 0.49 0.53 0.62 -2.02
-0.10 0.14 -0.54 -0.04 -0.22 0.38
0
500
1000
1500
Axe Creek catchment - IHACRES
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 236.9 km2
Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
120
240
-0.44 -0.97 -0.33 0.28 -0.53 -0.34-1.88 -2.67 -1.55 0.35 -0.03 0.05-0.71 -1.44 -0.55 0.24 -0.39 -0.72-1.36 -2.17 -1.19 0.24 -0.30 -0.36-1.43 -2.44 -1.24 0.47 -0.60 -0.60-0.10 -0.42 0.00 0.03 -1.35 -1.37
0.01 0.05 0.06 0.16 0.06 -0.14-0.07 0.01 -0.01 0.05 -0.01 -0.09-0.06 0.04 0.01 0.08 -0.03 -0.15-0.11 -0.06 -0.07 0.01 -0.10 -0.31-0.06 -0.02 -0.01 0.15 0.00 -0.221.60 1.15 1.73 2.73 2.12 0.00
0
500
1000
1500
Axe Creek catchment - Sacramento
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 236.9 km2
Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
120
240
0.76 0.75 0.75 0.76 0.74 0.620.77 0.79 0.76 0.77 0.76 0.740.77 0.76 0.78 0.77 0.76 0.670.75 0.74 0.74 0.76 0.75 0.580.66 0.61 0.64 0.67 0.69 0.50
-0.09 -0.42 -0.21 -0.29 0.24 0.52
0.06 0.14 0.09 0.19 0.06 -0.02-0.09 0.04 -0.06 0.04 -0.09 0.000.03 0.15 0.05 0.20 0.04 0.00
-0.07 0.01 -0.03 0.04 -0.07 -0.050.05 0.17 0.10 0.22 0.05 -0.183.28 2.55 3.47 3.61 3.23 0.01
-0.47 -0.46 -0.45 -0.42 -0.26 -0.63-1.43 -1.46 -1.38 -1.28 -0.98 -2.04-0.76 -0.76 -0.73 -0.68 -0.40 -1.07-1.23 -1.22 -1.18 -1.07 -0.79 -1.59-1.15 -1.15 -1.11 -1.06 -0.80 -1.62-0.20 -0.16 -0.20 -0.21 -0.17 -0.22
0.62 0.60 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.510.62 0.69 0.63 0.66 0.61 0.580.66 0.63 0.66 0.65 0.63 0.460.58 0.53 0.59 0.62 0.58 0.420.52 0.37 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.23
-0.64 -0.31 -0.75 -0.78 -0.49 0.39
0
500
1000
1500
Axe Creek catchment - Simhyd
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 236.9 km2
Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
120
240
-0.36 -0.35 -0.12 -0.43 -0.20 0.04-0.57 -0.57 -0.43 -1.24 -1.34 -0.59-1.04 -1.04 -0.93 -0.94 -0.68 -0.95-0.57 -0.57 -0.35 -0.53 -0.49 -0.22-0.77 -0.76 -0.58 -0.75 -0.73 -0.32-1.36 -1.35 -1.15 -1.33 -0.18 -0.83
0.72 0.72 0.61 0.61 0.62 0.310.75 0.78 0.70 0.49 0.59 0.300.70 0.71 0.75 0.70 0.62 0.310.63 0.63 0.55 0.67 0.58 0.070.49 0.47 0.48 0.54 0.55 0.150.09 -0.26 -0.25 -0.27 -0.44 0.51
0.06 0.23 -0.06 -0.04 0.00 -0.55-0.08 0.04 -0.13 -0.44 -0.27 -0.530.02 0.20 0.04 0.02 0.02 -0.460.06 0.22 -0.15 0.07 0.00 -0.700.14 0.34 -0.03 0.20 0.04 -0.701.50 2.33 1.90 2.35 2.67 0.00
0
500
1000
1500
Axe Creek catchment - SMARG
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 236.9 km2
Very low discharge during the period 1997-2008 ('Millennium Drought') due to low annual rainfall, 'changed' rainfall characteristics and higher T.
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
120
240
0.08 0.08 -0.07 0.08 0.05 0.060.07 0.08 -0.29 0.07 0.03 0.050.06 0.06 -0.02 0.05 0.00 0.010.09 0.08 0.00 0.09 0.07 0.080.09 0.08 0.00 0.10 0.10 0.090.08 0.08 -0.03 0.08 0.03 0.05
1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 20080
500
1000
1500
Durance catchment - AWBM
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 2170 km2
Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers
-0.23 -0.23 -0.65 -0.27 -0.35 -0.40-0.17 -0.19 -1.17 -0.22 -0.28 -0.36-0.37 -0.37 -0.39 -0.41 -0.49 -0.53-0.18 -0.17 -0.53 -0.22 -0.32 -0.38-0.26 -0.25 -0.58 -0.29 -0.38 -0.42-0.17 -0.16 -0.59 -0.20 -0.28 -0.34
0.01 -0.01 -0.02 0.03 0.12 0.120.01 0.00 -0.43 0.05 0.14 0.130.07 0.06 0.02 0.11 0.20 0.20
-0.03 -0.05 0.07 0.00 0.08 0.08-0.05 -0.07 0.08 -0.03 0.05 0.050.03 0.00 0.17 0.05 0.13 0.13
0
1000
2000
-0.17 -0.17 -0.16 -0.18 -0.21 -0.17-0.23 -0.22 -0.21 -0.24 -0.28 -0.22-0.23 -0.21 -0.19 -0.25 -0.30 -0.21-0.19 -0.19 -0.19 -0.20 -0.22 -0.19-0.07 -0.07 -0.08 -0.07 -0.08 -0.07-0.18 -0.17 -0.16 -0.19 -0.23 -0.17
Durance catchment – GR4J
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 2170 km2
Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers
-0.28 -0.28 -0.31 -0.27 -0.28 -0.28-0.16 -0.16 -0.18 -0.16 -0.17 -0.16-0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.34 -0.37 -0.34-0.36 -0.38 -0.42 -0.35 -0.34 -0.38-0.27 -0.26 -0.27 -0.27 -0.30 -0.27-0.27 -0.29 -0.34 -0.26 -0.25 -0.29
-0.08 -0.10 -0.14 -0.05 0.01 -0.10-0.06 -0.08 -0.13 -0.04 0.02 -0.08-0.02 -0.04 -0.08 0.01 0.07 -0.04-0.10 -0.12 -0.16 -0.08 -0.02 -0.12-0.14 -0.16 -0.20 -0.11 -0.06 -0.16-0.06 -0.08 -0.13 -0.03 0.03 -0.08
0
1000
2000
1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 20080
500
1000
1500
0.19 0.18 0.16 0.15 0.12 0.160.19 0.21 0.16 0.17 0.13 0.110.11 0.07 0.17 -0.06 -0.14 0.070.21 0.22 0.15 0.23 0.21 0.190.24 0.23 0.17 0.26 0.27 0.220.17 0.13 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.19
Durance catchment - IHACRES
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 2170 km2
Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers
0.06 -0.05 0.11 -0.01 -0.08 -0.030.11 -0.03 0.15 0.05 -0.08 0.00
-0.15 -0.15 -0.05 -0.24 -0.27 -0.260.14 0.03 0.16 0.10 0.03 0.010.09 0.01 0.16 0.01 -0.01 -0.030.14 -0.13 0.13 0.07 -0.06 0.15
-0.03 -0.08 -0.14 0.04 0.08 0.060.02 -0.03 -0.08 0.10 0.13 0.150.11 0.08 -0.03 0.22 0.25 0.20
-0.07 -0.14 -0.18 -0.02 0.02 0.02-0.11 -0.17 -0.20 -0.06 -0.02 -0.01-0.08 -0.15 -0.21 -0.03 0.02 -0.03
0
1000
2000
1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 20080
500
1000
1500
-1.15 -1.19 -1.17 -1.15 -1.30 -1.17-1.16 -1.12 -1.20 -1.18 -1.30 -1.22-1.50 -1.56 -1.47 -1.49 -1.88 -1.49-1.20 -1.30 -1.21 -1.20 -1.34 -1.21-0.66 -0.65 -0.71 -0.68 -0.54 -0.71-1.49 -1.62 -1.47 -1.47 -1.90 -1.45
Durance catchment - Sacramento
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 2170 km2
Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers
-15.30 -26.98 -21.92 -14.90 -10.08 -12.96-20.98 -34.41 -28.62 -20.41 -14.97 -17.82
-4.22 -6.35 -5.60 -4.18 -2.95 -3.86-9.73 -17.03 -14.13 -9.56 -5.97 -8.56
-11.40 -21.42 -16.97 -11.09 -6.91 -9.53-29.82 -56.14 -44.34 -28.88 -19.06 -24.66
0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.130.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.150.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.200.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.100.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.060.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15
0
1000
2000
1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 20080
500
1000
1500
0.00 -0.01 -0.11 0.00 -0.02 -0.01-0.04 -0.03 -0.32 -0.04 -0.06 -0.04-0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.07 -0.10 -0.090.04 0.03 -0.03 0.04 0.02 0.030.07 0.05 -0.04 0.07 0.08 0.05
-0.04 -0.04 -0.12 -0.04 -0.07 -0.04
Durance catchment - Simhyd
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 2170 km2
Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers
-0.23 -0.29 -0.73 -0.24 -0.17 -0.26-0.16 -0.23 -1.95 -0.17 -0.08 -0.20-0.36 -0.39 -0.27 -0.36 -0.32 -0.37-0.22 -0.28 -0.39 -0.23 -0.18 -0.26-0.26 -0.32 -0.50 -0.27 -0.20 -0.30-0.16 -0.22 -0.50 -0.17 -0.09 -0.19
0.11 0.11 -0.03 0.11 0.11 0.110.13 0.13 -0.40 0.13 0.13 0.130.19 0.19 0.01 0.19 0.18 0.190.08 0.08 0.02 0.08 0.08 0.080.04 0.04 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.040.12 0.12 0.15 0.12 0.13 0.12
0
1000
2000
1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 20080
500
1000
1500
0.07 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.05 0.060.05 0.06 0.05 0.05 0.02 0.050.02 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.020.08 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.080.10 0.07 0.10 0.10 0.11 0.090.06 0.04 0.04 0.06 -0.02 0.06
Durance catchment - SMARG
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 2170 km2
Temperature increase implying a diminution of glaciers
-0.37 -0.42 -0.36 -0.36 -0.33 -0.38-0.31 -0.37 -0.30 -0.31 -0.27 -0.33-0.50 -0.54 -0.49 -0.50 -0.48 -0.51-0.34 -0.41 -0.33 -0.33 -0.30 -0.36-0.39 -0.44 -0.38 -0.38 -0.36 -0.40-0.29 -0.36 -0.28 -0.28 -0.25 -0.31
0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.110.13 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.120.19 0.20 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.190.07 0.07 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.070.04 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.040.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12
0
1000
2000
1904 1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000 20080
500
1000
1500
Flinders catchment - AWBM
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1912 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
-1.46 -2.31 -1.43 -1.41 -0.13 -0.08-1.25 -1.85 -1.20 -1.10 0.12 -0.10-2.24 -3.25 -2.50 -2.22 -0.71 0.05-1.71 -3.47 -1.39 -2.16 -0.57 0.09-1.46 -2.19 -1.33 -1.28 -0.12 -0.12-1.61 -2.11 -1.64 -1.48 -0.16 -0.29
0.02 -0.09 -0.20 0.02 0.29 0.110.13 -0.01 -0.07 0.14 0.39 0.280.29 0.14 0.04 0.21 0.60 0.46
-0.24 -0.16 -0.31 -0.02 0.17 0.05-0.15 -0.34 -0.54 -0.28 -0.01 -0.320.09 0.07 -0.37 0.09 0.30 -0.05
0.56 0.49 0.49 0.46 0.41 -0.650.54 0.57 0.41 0.32 -0.02 -1.400.60 0.63 0.69 0.59 0.38 -1.790.57 0.59 0.63 0.73 0.48 -0.230.59 0.39 0.43 0.44 0.61 0.350.52 0.36 0.40 0.44 0.56 0.83
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
100
200
300
0
500
1000
1500
Flinders catchment – GR4J
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1912 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
-1.05 -0.28 -1.21 -2.41 -1.25 -0.36-0.70 -0.01 -0.88 -1.89 -0.88 -0.08-1.84 -0.94 -1.95 -3.26 -2.11 -1.04-1.48 -0.66 -1.51 -3.66 -1.82 -0.75-1.08 -0.27 -1.31 -2.42 -1.25 -0.34-1.39 -0.60 -1.58 -2.17 -1.51 -0.68
-0.04 -0.12 -0.20 0.14 0.13 -0.100.04 -0.07 -0.10 0.30 0.21 -0.040.18 0.10 -0.03 0.23 0.40 0.13
-0.31 -0.38 -0.38 0.01 -0.22 -0.37-0.23 -0.26 -0.43 -0.05 -0.02 -0.240.06 -0.03 -0.18 0.25 0.33 0.01
0.59 0.56 0.53 0.54 0.52 0.550.38 0.44 0.38 0.36 0.35 0.430.48 0.27 0.64 0.61 0.18 0.250.38 0.36 0.47 0.71 0.31 0.350.63 0.66 0.47 0.66 0.66 0.650.88 0.93 0.56 0.56 0.90 0.93
0
500
1000
1500
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
100
200
300
Flinders catchment - IHACRES
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1912 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
-1.17 0.15 0.51 0.15 0.43 -2.33-1.03 0.18 0.51 0.31 0.41 -1.72-2.15 -0.15 0.39 -0.32 0.31 -3.47-1.39 -0.02 0.59 0.05 0.53 -3.54-0.97 0.13 0.55 0.22 0.39 -2.35-1.41 0.25 0.38 0.20 0.40 -1.94
0.00 -0.07 -0.10 0.36 0.23 3.650.11 0.01 0.07 0.60 0.41 7.820.18 0.07 0.01 0.47 0.40 2.76
-0.27 -0.27 -0.31 0.01 -0.11 3.96-0.15 -0.16 -0.25 0.21 0.00 -0.020.17 0.16 -0.08 0.56 0.29 -0.01
0.58 0.55 0.56 0.50 0.51 -31.510.50 0.55 0.47 0.30 0.23 -105.380.66 0.67 0.70 0.54 0.51 -9.360.60 0.58 0.60 0.69 0.57 -22.240.65 0.59 0.59 0.59 0.69 -1.250.55 0.45 0.45 0.50 0.58 0.95
0
500
1000
1500
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
100
200
300
Flinders catchment - Sacramento
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1912 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
-0.22 -2.17 0.17 -2.09 0.22 0.02-0.06 -1.76 0.23 -1.77 0.43 0.01-0.46 -3.07 0.34 -3.04 0.19 0.16-0.08 -3.07 0.22 -2.55 0.15 0.19-0.38 -2.15 0.13 -2.12 0.09 -0.01-0.40 -2.08 -0.16 -2.09 -0.10 -0.22
0.00 -0.10 -0.17 0.29 0.22 0.220.12 0.00 -0.02 0.44 0.41 0.380.13 0.05 -0.02 0.46 0.43 0.50
-0.34 -0.35 -0.33 -0.01 -0.08 -0.03-0.11 -0.18 -0.41 0.12 0.00 -0.120.27 0.12 -0.25 0.62 0.20 -0.04
0.75 0.62 0.55 0.54 0.48 -0.420.62 0.67 0.30 0.31 0.10 -1.220.73 0.71 0.78 0.62 0.47 -1.370.67 0.63 0.60 0.80 0.61 -0.170.70 0.67 0.63 0.69 0.78 0.210.90 0.52 0.56 0.53 0.65 0.94
0
500
1000
1500
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
100
200
300
Flinders catchment - Simhyd
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1912 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
0.11 0.06 0.18 -0.08 0.14 0.260.16 0.13 0.23 0.05 0.17 0.31
-0.12 -0.22 -0.07 -0.42 -0.03 0.000.11 0.02 0.17 -0.24 0.16 0.210.12 0.08 0.20 -0.07 0.14 0.280.02 -0.01 0.11 -0.11 0.04 0.23
0.01 -0.06 -0.02 0.22 0.18 0.140.09 0.00 0.10 0.33 0.25 0.260.10 0.03 0.02 0.32 0.31 0.45
-0.22 -0.27 -0.18 -0.02 -0.08 -0.03-0.11 -0.17 -0.24 0.06 0.03 -0.220.28 0.24 0.12 0.53 0.45 -0.01
0.65 0.63 0.57 0.54 0.61 0.240.57 0.60 0.25 0.43 0.46 -0.410.71 0.70 0.75 0.67 0.59 0.010.71 0.66 0.66 0.73 0.71 0.190.70 0.64 0.66 0.69 0.76 0.540.66 0.62 0.65 0.61 0.71 0.78
0
500
1000
1500
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
100
200
300
Flinders catchment - SMARG
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1912 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
-0.75 -1.66 -1.13 0.04 -2.19 -2.37-0.57 -1.48 -1.19 0.01 -1.51 -1.82-1.86 -3.17 -2.47 -0.24 -3.32 -3.42-1.71 -3.34 -2.12 -0.09 -3.46 -3.67-0.21 -1.83 -1.00 0.29 -2.16 -2.38-0.04 -0.01 0.22 0.11 -1.93 -1.98
-0.02 -0.15 -0.15 0.38 0.27 0.160.21 0.03 0.07 0.32 0.44 0.320.13 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.69 0.56
-0.21 -0.28 -0.26 -0.06 0.00 -0.08-0.27 -0.35 -0.42 0.16 0.00 -0.05-0.14 -0.39 -0.32 0.42 0.17 -0.02
0.65 0.56 0.60 0.49 0.52 0.410.39 0.69 0.46 -0.05 0.34 -0.360.74 0.74 0.80 0.33 0.36 0.500.64 0.59 0.58 0.68 0.59 0.540.64 0.62 0.58 0.49 0.77 0.260.74 0.34 0.55 0.80 0.69 0.95
0
500
1000
1500
1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997 2001 2005 20090
100
200
300
-0.01 0.63 -0.15 0.45 -0.05 0.33-0.46 0.01 -0.74 -0.19 -0.59 0.000.06 0.56 0.00 0.44 0.08 0.34
-0.30 0.10 -0.47 0.01 -0.41 -0.210.03 0.73 -0.09 0.54 0.00 0.35
-0.16 -0.09 -0.55 -0.21 -0.40 -0.01
-1.76 0.36 -1.46 0.16 -1.29 -0.16-2.17 0.33 -1.60 0.13 -1.42 -0.39-1.13 0.32 -0.75 0.60 -0.50 0.17-2.16 0.31 -2.00 -0.01 -1.84 -0.15-1.37 0.43 -1.23 0.54 -1.08 0.19-3.55 0.01 -3.48 -1.75 -3.39 -1.90
0
1000
2000
1969 1973 1977 1981 19850
400
800
0.67 0.32 0.65 0.48 0.50 0.510.23 0.50 0.14 0.36 0.28 0.430.77 0.42 0.80 0.53 0.49 0.570.55 0.73 0.44 0.83 0.63 0.690.33 0.10 0.17 0.37 0.55 0.430.22 0.37 0.09 0.28 0.24 0.40
Gilbert catchment - AWBM
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
-0.03 0.29 -0.14 0.50 -0.03 0.65-0.62 0.01 -0.70 -0.04 -0.57 0.170.07 0.16 -0.02 0.50 0.04 0.58
-0.39 -0.19 -0.47 0.02 -0.39 0.11-0.05 0.32 -0.16 0.47 -0.03 0.66-0.68 0.02 -0.76 -0.05 -0.64 0.00
-1.10 -0.28 -0.35 -1.62 -1.21 0.04-1.83 -1.05 -1.10 -2.30 -1.93 -0.90-0.35 0.40 0.31 -0.73 -0.46 0.59-1.02 -0.59 -0.26 -1.84 -1.14 -0.10-0.75 0.13 -0.17 -1.08 -0.85 0.45-3.14 -2.60 -2.47 -3.51 -3.22 -2.20
0
1000
2000
0.74 0.52 0.73 0.55 0.63 0.320.12 0.58 0.14 0.31 0.15 0.270.81 0.70 0.82 0.63 0.66 0.540.64 0.64 0.65 0.89 0.60 0.710.49 0.15 0.42 0.31 0.56 -0.140.04 0.48 0.05 0.16 0.10 0.63
Gilbert catchment – GR4J
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
1969 1973 1977 1981 19850
500
1000
-0.01 2.53 -0.25 0.79 0.13 0.42-0.65 0.00 -0.72 -0.42 -0.35 0.080.31 3.99 -0.01 1.59 0.38 0.59
-0.46 0.76 -0.64 0.00 -0.40 -0.24-0.10 1.81 -0.31 0.37 0.00 0.33-0.64 0.08 -0.74 -0.77 -0.44 0.01
-1.78 -1.56 -1.08 -0.60 0.21 0.53-2.27 -2.19 -1.67 -0.93 0.02 0.62-1.34 -1.33 -0.84 -0.57 0.39 0.43-2.14 -1.72 -1.42 -1.05 0.43 0.63-1.41 -1.26 -0.87 -0.39 0.39 0.44-3.35 -2.97 -2.60 -1.69 -0.91 0.49
0
1000
2000
0.64 -7.74 0.64 -0.61 0.43 0.350.14 0.58 0.21 0.28 0.43 0.510.72 -8.89 0.73 -0.84 0.41 0.340.37 -0.06 0.37 0.85 0.66 0.720.40 -3.61 0.39 0.31 0.56 0.470.08 -0.12 0.12 0.10 0.33 0.46
Gilbert catchment - IHACRES
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
1969 1973 1977 1981 19850
500
1000
-0.01 0.47 -0.32 0.55 0.00 0.87-0.36 -0.01 -0.77 -0.07 -0.48 0.550.16 0.43 0.00 0.51 0.16 0.69
-0.50 -0.11 -0.77 0.00 -0.48 0.23-0.04 0.50 -0.38 0.60 -0.01 0.91-0.60 -0.26 -0.80 -0.28 -0.70 -0.01
0.22 -0.58 -0.49 -1.04 0.00 0.110.09 -0.83 -1.29 -1.42 -0.08 -0.300.33 -0.25 0.18 -0.63 -0.01 0.52
-0.12 -0.26 -0.40 -0.72 -0.19 0.23-0.02 -0.47 -0.24 -0.79 -0.24 0.160.09 -1.99 -2.41 -2.63 -0.07 -1.48
0
1000
2000
0.79 0.14 0.75 0.51 0.60 0.160.49 0.66 0.17 0.52 0.49 0.020.85 0.40 0.85 0.60 0.61 0.420.59 0.56 0.32 0.90 0.64 0.650.54 -0.30 0.39 0.30 0.59 -0.310.31 0.47 0.13 0.33 0.33 0.61
Gilbert catchment - Sacramento
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
1969 1973 1977 1981 19850
500
1000
0.04 0.33 -0.28 0.49 0.12 0.31-0.18 0.05 -0.64 0.11 -0.21 0.060.11 0.37 -0.01 0.48 0.25 0.34
-0.38 -0.18 -0.70 -0.01 -0.36 -0.19-0.07 0.27 -0.45 0.51 0.03 0.24-0.10 0.03 -0.60 -0.07 -0.20 0.06
0.34 0.34 -0.45 0.38 0.37 0.190.26 0.39 -0.83 0.37 0.37 0.300.39 0.30 -0.88 0.39 0.37 0.090.23 0.25 -0.56 0.28 0.29 0.050.56 0.44 -0.18 0.51 0.51 0.20
-0.35 0.02 -1.80 0.04 -0.09 0.18
0
1000
2000
0.75 0.49 0.68 0.48 0.46 0.560.45 0.56 0.16 0.52 0.48 0.520.83 0.50 0.83 0.55 0.45 0.620.62 0.81 0.28 0.87 0.69 0.780.49 0.51 0.19 0.33 0.55 0.430.33 0.44 0.12 0.39 0.35 0.49
Gilbert catchment - Simhyd
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
1969 1973 1977 1981 19850
400
800
-0.05 0.74 -0.27 0.60 0.15 0.59-0.39 0.05 -0.60 -0.31 -0.27 0.220.08 0.62 -0.02 0.57 0.24 0.46
-0.47 0.17 -0.69 -0.01 -0.38 0.13-0.11 0.95 -0.33 0.66 0.02 0.69-0.50 0.21 -0.68 -0.02 0.00 0.00
-0.49 0.18 -0.08 0.21 0.21 -1.56-0.14 0.10 -0.15 0.01 0.46 -2.05-0.78 0.13 -0.74 0.11 -0.24 -1.01-1.32 0.16 0.14 0.18 0.02 -2.04-0.25 0.31 0.10 0.28 0.52 -1.26-1.17 -0.10 0.07 0.05 0.15 -3.29
0
1000
2000
0.69 0.36 0.71 0.36 0.37 0.440.23 0.52 0.15 0.43 0.44 0.240.79 0.50 0.83 0.50 0.36 0.600.52 0.73 0.34 0.91 0.71 0.770.36 -0.24 0.23 0.20 0.56 0.040.27 0.31 0.16 -1.49 -0.11 0.50
Gilbert catchment - SMARG
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 1906.5 km2
The analysis of non-stationarity in this catchment is complicated by the high inter-annual variability and the intermittency of the flow regime.
1969 1973 1977 1981 19850
400
800
0
600
1200
0
400
800
-0.02 0.06 -0.01 -0.05 0.08 -0.02-0.11 -0.02 -0.08 -0.13 0.00 -0.09-0.01 0.08 0.00 -0.04 0.10 -0.020.07 0.15 0.08 0.01 0.19 0.10
-0.05 0.03 -0.06 -0.08 0.02 -0.080.01 0.07 0.01 -0.02 0.08 0.01
0.45 0.35 0.43 0.52 0.39 0.060.26 0.48 0.59 0.51 0.37 -0.740.40 0.30 0.44 0.52 0.33 -0.270.47 0.23 0.30 0.49 0.37 0.430.55 0.42 0.49 0.57 0.45 0.030.56 0.30 0.32 0.51 0.38 0.63
0.44 0.33 0.35 0.37 0.42 0.370.32 0.46 0.42 0.44 0.33 0.010.24 0.31 0.37 0.35 0.20 -0.080.25 0.37 0.39 0.42 0.24 -0.260.51 0.43 0.42 0.45 0.53 0.400.47 0.27 0.30 0.32 0.45 0.53
Kamp-Zwettl catchment - AWBM
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 621.8 km2
increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.
0
600
1200
0
400
800
0.00 0.08 -0.01 -0.04 0.04 0.01-0.07 0.01 -0.07 -0.10 -0.03 -0.070.04 0.11 0.02 -0.01 0.08 0.040.05 0.14 0.04 0.01 0.10 0.07
-0.02 0.05 -0.03 -0.06 0.02 -0.030.00 0.07 -0.01 -0.04 0.03 0.00
0.69 0.48 0.49 0.68 0.67 0.680.71 0.58 0.57 0.73 0.73 0.630.65 0.44 0.48 0.66 0.61 0.670.66 0.38 0.37 0.63 0.63 0.650.70 0.48 0.51 0.69 0.67 0.700.70 0.46 0.47 0.67 0.65 0.72
0.63 0.55 0.48 0.60 0.63 0.630.44 0.52 0.49 0.48 0.44 0.390.36 0.41 0.42 0.41 0.35 0.300.45 0.45 0.44 0.49 0.44 0.400.68 0.60 0.51 0.64 0.68 0.670.70 0.56 0.46 0.64 0.70 0.71
Kamp-Zwettl catchment – GR4J
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 621.8 km2
increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.
0
600
1200
0
400
800
-0.02 0.01 0.04 -0.03 0.12 -0.13-0.10 -0.02 -0.07 -0.14 -0.12 -0.23-0.04 -0.01 0.00 -0.07 -0.02 -0.170.03 0.12 0.07 0.00 -0.08 -0.11
-0.09 -0.04 -0.05 -0.12 -0.01 -0.190.07 -0.01 0.16 0.12 0.56 -0.01
0.60 0.55 0.47 0.32 0.26 0.400.58 0.59 0.02 -0.59 0.29 0.470.63 0.55 0.65 0.52 0.40 0.440.52 0.42 0.50 0.50 0.44 0.410.65 0.62 0.60 0.61 0.55 0.550.64 0.57 0.59 0.62 -0.26 0.16
0.56 0.40 0.47 0.47 0.36 0.540.38 0.54 0.46 0.44 0.26 0.230.38 0.41 0.46 0.44 0.30 0.280.32 0.34 0.41 0.43 0.30 0.250.58 0.51 0.54 0.52 0.66 0.520.61 0.35 0.46 0.46 0.33 0.63
Kamp-Zwettl catchment - IHACRES
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 621.8 km2
increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.
0
600
1200
0
400
800
-0.07 -0.07 -0.07 -0.09 0.00 -0.07-0.14 -0.15 -0.15 -0.16 -0.08 -0.15-0.08 -0.08 -0.08 -0.09 -0.02 -0.080.00 -0.01 0.00 -0.02 0.08 0.01
-0.09 -0.10 -0.09 -0.12 -0.02 -0.09-0.04 -0.05 -0.05 -0.06 0.01 -0.04
0.60 0.57 0.31 0.62 0.57 0.130.57 0.51 -0.60 0.51 0.56 -1.220.61 0.67 0.48 0.66 0.64 0.190.56 0.47 0.53 0.60 0.45 0.560.62 0.59 0.54 0.65 0.60 0.500.62 0.60 0.60 0.66 0.59 0.62
0.63 0.17 0.34 0.28 0.40 0.620.38 0.45 0.42 0.43 0.45 0.330.31 -0.08 0.40 0.38 0.29 0.250.44 0.44 0.44 0.47 0.43 0.400.59 0.59 0.48 0.49 0.66 0.590.72 0.05 0.26 0.16 0.34 0.73
Kamp-Zwettl catchment - Sacramento
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 621.8 km2
increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.
0
600
1200
-0.02 0.03 -0.03 -0.09 -0.01 0.04-0.08 -0.03 -0.09 -0.16 -0.08 -0.02-0.02 0.05 -0.04 -0.08 -0.02 0.060.07 0.14 0.06 -0.01 0.10 0.15
-0.06 0.00 -0.06 -0.13 -0.05 0.00-0.03 0.01 -0.03 -0.08 -0.01 0.01
0.53 0.22 0.53 0.49 -0.09 0.330.38 -0.24 0.61 0.07 -1.51 0.000.59 0.39 0.60 0.58 -0.21 0.430.49 0.27 0.43 0.56 0.21 0.360.56 0.34 0.51 0.57 0.35 0.400.62 0.35 0.49 0.65 0.70 0.45
0.65 0.60 0.63 0.59 0.63 0.630.47 0.52 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.460.42 0.37 0.45 0.38 0.37 0.360.41 0.36 0.42 0.44 0.36 0.330.62 0.52 0.60 0.49 0.67 0.580.72 0.68 0.70 0.67 0.70 0.73
Kamp-Zwettl catchment - Simhyd
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 621.8 km2
increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.
0
400
800
0
600
1200
-0.03 0.02 -0.03 -0.08 -0.02 -0.05-0.10 -0.05 -0.12 -0.15 -0.17 -0.12-0.05 0.00 -0.04 -0.10 -0.02 -0.060.06 0.12 0.06 0.00 0.11 0.04
-0.07 -0.02 -0.07 -0.12 -0.05 -0.090.00 0.03 0.00 -0.05 0.02 -0.02
-0.32 0.28 0.42 -0.64 -9.48 -2.97-1.46 -0.23 0.21 -1.84 -40.82 -7.02-1.37 0.19 0.51 -1.86 -6.47 -6.210.38 0.47 0.41 0.24 -0.27 -0.42
-0.18 0.42 0.47 -0.78 -1.10 -1.730.60 0.49 0.48 0.38 0.21 -0.44
0.60 0.52 0.52 0.40 0.57 0.590.44 0.45 0.43 0.44 0.31 0.390.42 0.38 0.46 0.40 0.33 0.370.42 0.39 0.43 0.46 0.34 0.390.56 0.50 0.48 0.47 0.58 0.550.67 0.56 0.54 0.36 0.65 0.67
Kamp-Zwettl catchment - SMARG
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 621.8 km2
increase in air temperature (i.e. mean air temp in 1976-86 is approximately 6.0C, in the period 1998-2008 it is 7.3°C), plus dramatic floods in August 2002.
0
400
800
0
500
1000
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
300
600
0.64 0.59 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.620.45 0.50 0.45 0.40 0.35 0.440.81 0.77 0.83 0.80 0.74 0.750.67 0.63 0.68 0.71 0.64 0.620.71 0.61 0.67 0.63 0.72 0.710.52 0.47 0.49 0.47 0.52 0.55
0.02 -0.09 -0.06 -0.05 0.12 0.080.17 0.04 0.06 0.11 0.27 0.210.10 -0.02 0.02 0.01 0.22 0.220.08 -0.04 -0.01 0.01 0.19 0.16
-0.09 -0.18 -0.18 -0.17 -0.02 -0.05-0.03 -0.14 -0.11 -0.09 0.06 0.02
0.17 0.05 0.27 0.35 0.30 0.100.31 0.10 0.35 0.39 0.19 0.160.05 -0.05 0.16 0.22 0.23 0.010.06 -0.06 0.15 0.27 0.15 -0.030.45 0.22 0.59 0.68 0.59 0.360.38 0.15 0.44 0.58 0.63 0.24
Lissbro catchment - AWBM
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 97 km2
In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one. There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.
0
500
1000
0.68 0.63 0.67 0.68 0.65 0.680.47 0.52 0.48 0.47 0.35 0.440.88 0.82 0.88 0.88 0.81 0.860.73 0.68 0.72 0.73 0.71 0.730.73 0.64 0.69 0.71 0.75 0.740.58 0.51 0.56 0.57 0.57 0.58
0.01 -0.13 -0.07 -0.02 0.14 0.060.17 0.01 0.07 0.13 0.32 0.230.10 -0.08 0.02 0.07 0.25 0.150.07 -0.09 -0.02 0.03 0.20 0.12
-0.10 -0.22 -0.18 -0.13 0.01 -0.05-0.05 -0.18 -0.12 -0.07 0.07 0.00
0.28 0.28 0.35 0.30 0.22 0.230.41 0.41 0.55 0.47 0.32 0.320.18 0.18 0.24 0.20 0.13 0.140.15 0.15 0.23 0.18 0.10 0.100.51 0.53 0.62 0.55 0.44 0.450.51 0.51 0.58 0.54 0.45 0.46
Lissbro catchment – GR4J
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 97 km2
In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one. There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
300
600
0
500
1000
0.63 0.58 0.61 0.62 0.61 0.620.49 0.55 0.48 0.52 0.40 0.460.76 0.74 0.79 0.78 0.68 0.720.68 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.64 0.660.70 0.60 0.65 0.66 0.72 0.690.53 0.44 0.48 0.49 0.52 0.54
-0.01 -0.11 -0.07 -0.10 0.10 0.060.10 -0.01 0.03 -0.01 0.21 0.190.08 -0.02 -0.01 -0.03 0.21 0.150.09 -0.01 0.03 0.00 0.20 0.15
-0.10 -0.19 -0.14 -0.18 -0.01 -0.04-0.08 -0.20 -0.13 -0.17 0.02 -0.01
0.21 0.42 -2.41 -0.47 0.38 0.380.25 0.40 -4.81 0.22 0.27 0.230.54 0.48 -1.09 0.13 0.45 0.460.64 0.52 -1.18 0.32 0.41 0.37
-3.63 -0.78 -14.36 -7.42 -0.64 -0.440.56 0.62 -4.64 -1.00 0.71 0.66
Lissbro catchment - IHACRES
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 97 km2
In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one. There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
300
600
0
500
1000
0.67 0.64 0.67 0.66 0.67 0.620.48 0.54 0.46 0.45 0.43 0.440.84 0.79 0.89 0.87 0.83 0.840.71 0.67 0.73 0.74 0.69 0.700.74 0.70 0.72 0.70 0.77 0.740.56 0.51 0.54 0.52 0.58 0.58
-0.02 -0.12 -0.06 -0.05 0.06 0.060.13 0.00 0.09 0.10 0.21 0.210.06 -0.08 0.02 0.01 0.18 0.180.03 -0.08 -0.02 -0.01 0.12 0.12
-0.14 -0.20 -0.17 -0.17 -0.08 -0.08-0.07 -0.17 -0.11 -0.10 0.00 0.00
0.36 0.26 0.29 0.21 0.13 0.140.51 0.43 0.38 0.41 0.31 0.310.21 0.11 0.17 0.07 0.01 0.020.28 0.18 0.23 0.12 0.04 0.040.74 0.58 0.55 0.51 0.39 0.420.54 0.41 0.36 0.37 0.29 0.28
Lissbro catchment - Sacramento
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 97 km2
In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one. There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
300
600
0
500
1000
0.70 0.68 0.70 0.66 0.67 0.700.54 0.57 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.510.85 0.84 0.86 0.83 0.78 0.830.74 0.73 0.75 0.76 0.69 0.720.77 0.70 0.74 0.70 0.78 0.780.61 0.57 0.59 0.53 0.59 0.61
-0.02 -0.10 -0.06 -0.08 0.08 0.010.09 0.02 0.06 0.04 0.21 0.130.07 -0.05 0.02 -0.01 0.21 0.120.05 -0.04 0.01 -0.01 0.16 0.09
-0.13 -0.19 -0.15 -0.18 -0.04 -0.10-0.07 -0.16 -0.11 -0.13 0.03 -0.04
-0.13 -0.14 0.08 -0.27 0.18 -0.06-0.07 -0.15 0.15 -0.37 0.30 0.010.24 -0.06 0.34 0.08 0.29 0.300.52 0.39 0.60 0.44 0.54 0.56
-4.05 -3.13 -3.15 -4.67 -2.05 -3.67-1.17 -0.64 -0.52 -1.26 0.17 -1.17
Lissbro catchment - Simhyd
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 97 km2
In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one. There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
300
600
0
500
1000
0.71 0.67 0.69 0.68 0.68 0.700.55 0.59 0.51 0.47 0.45 0.540.86 0.83 0.88 0.87 0.78 0.830.74 0.70 0.75 0.76 0.66 0.690.75 0.68 0.72 0.71 0.79 0.780.60 0.55 0.57 0.55 0.60 0.63
-0.02 -0.13 -0.04 -0.06 0.10 0.030.07 0.01 0.10 0.09 0.24 0.170.06 -0.09 0.03 0.01 0.21 0.130.05 -0.07 0.02 0.00 0.17 0.10
-0.11 -0.21 -0.15 -0.17 -0.04 -0.09-0.07 -0.19 -0.09 -0.10 0.03 -0.03
-0.03 0.23 0.28 0.04 0.38 0.31-11.29 0.18 0.34 -1.46 0.19 0.40
0.39 0.19 0.16 0.48 0.31 0.170.25 0.11 0.21 0.35 0.33 0.230.10 0.17 0.73 -2.21 0.67 0.72
-0.01 0.47 0.33 -0.78 0.19 0.46
Lissbro catchment - SMARG
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Completep1p2p3p4p5
Complete
p1 p2 p3 p4 p5
NSE
Bias
NSE
iQ
Catchment area = 97 km2
In January 2005, a severe storm (called Gudrun) in southern Sweden, lead to considerable loss of forest/deforestation in some basins including this one. There was a lot of speculation on the increased risk for flooding in the area following this change.
1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 20080
300
600
Summary• Which catchments are easier to model and which are hard
• Ferson (USA), Kamp-zwettl (Austria), Axe Creek (Aus), Lissbro (Sweden)
• What can be the reason and what’s the way to overcome this
• Durance (France)• Flinders (Aus)• Gilbert (Aus)
Thankyou Jai VazePrincipal Research ScientistCSIRO Land and Watert +61 2 6246 5871E [email protected] http://www.csiro.au/people/Jai.Vaze.html
CSIRO LAND AND WATER
A water information R & D alliance between the Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO’s Water for a Healthy Country Flagship