modelling and standardization of yield analysis for...
TRANSCRIPT
Modelling and standardization of yield analysis forsolar thermal power plants
Tobias Hirsch, DLR Institute of Solar [email protected]
SFERA Summer School 2013, May 16, Hornberg, Germany
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 2 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Contents
Why do we need standards?
The SolarPACES guiSmo project
Some illustrating examples
First a guideline then a standard
Conclusions and outlook
WP-2: Structural framework- Quality requirements
- pre-feasibility - project development- acceptance tests
- Solar technologies consid.trough, tower, dish …
- Nomenclature- technical terms- characteristic numbers
- Common framework- definition of sub-systems- definition of interfaces- basic requirements
WP-2: Structural framework- Quality requirements
- pre-feasibility - project development- acceptance tests
- Solar technologies consid.trough, tower, dish …
- Nomenclature- technical terms- characteristic numbers
- Common framework- definition of sub-systems- definition of interfaces- basic requirements
WP-3: Component modeling- Description of physical effects- Modeling approaches- Default parameter sets
WP-3: Component modeling- Description of physical effects- Modeling approaches- Default parameter sets
WP-8: Meteorological input- Interface to SolarPACES tasks- Meteo input data structure- Required temporal resolution
WP-8: Meteorological input- Interface to SolarPACES tasks- Meteo input data structure- Required temporal resolution
WP-4: Operation strategies- Methods to consider OP strat.- Reference OP strategies- Market boundary conditions
WP-4: Operation strategies- Methods to consider OP strat.- Reference OP strategies- Market boundary conditions
WP-9: Validation and Benchmarking- Validation of methods against operational data- Definition of benchmark standards (reference configurations)
WP-9: Validation and Benchmarking- Validation of methods against operational data- Definition of benchmark standards (reference configurations)
WP-1: Coordination - founding of international working group- project definition (objectives, structure, schedule, finance)- official representation of the task
WP-1: Coordination - founding of international working group- project definition (objectives, structure, schedule, finance)- official representation of the task
WP-7: Financial evaluation - Common methods- Collection of methods
WP-7: Financial evaluation - Common methods- Collection of methods
WP-10: Communication infrastructure - WIKI system for day-to-day work- Way of publication for final hand book
WP-10: Communication infrastructure - WIKI system for day-to-day work- Way of publication for final hand book
WP-6: Uncertainties- CSP applicable methods- Relevant inputs
WP-6: Uncertainties- CSP applicable methods- Relevant inputs
WP-5: Transient effects- Methods to tune steady-state
simulations- Default parameters
WP-5: Transient effects- Methods to tune steady-state
simulations- Default parameters
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 3 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
CSP plants world-wide
Estela World Map of CSP plantsLarge number of plants realized– without any standards for electricity yield estimation
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 4 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
A typical CSP plant
Andasol-TypeElectric power 50 MWStorage 7.5 hSolar field size 500.000 m2
Invest costs ~300 Mio €Financial structure
- Equity, possibly of different owners- Debt- (federal subsidies)
The sponsor of a 300 Mio € projectexpects a secure investment!
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 5 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
A thesis derived from daily practice …
Expected electricity production of a CSP plant determined by two independent experts based on the same meteo data varies by
+/- 10% if plant configuration is roughly defined+/- 5% after adjustment of the main components+/- 2% after a fine tuning
155 GWh 150 GWh
=1 Mio. € / year !With a tariff of 20 € ct/kWh
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 6 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Reasons for the deviations
Different understanding of input and result figures Different modelling approaches
- Degree of model detail and accuracy- Choice of component parameters- Consideration of transient processes- Operation strategy
User errors, code errors
Up to now there is no accepted calculation procedure forthe yield estimation of solar thermal power plants!
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 7 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Status in CSP project development today
All players have to cope with a certain level of uncertainty:- Try to fix parameters and input data as good as possible - Increase confidentiality by involving consultants - Foresee safety margins- Financial risk surcharges
The last three measures unnecessarily increase the cost of CSP plants!
Standardized yieldcalculation
Reducedelectricity costs
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 8 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
SolarPACES project guiSmoGuidelines for CSP Performance Modeling
- Founded in 2010 as a SolarPACES project- 115 registered participants from all over the world- Work in the project is based on voluntary contributions from research,
industry and banks
We will develop, document and publish guidelines for CSP performance modeling in international collaboration!
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 9 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Who will benefit from a standard?
Investors Higher reliabilityComparability of projectsReduction of overall costs
EPC ContractorsAccuracy of results, reduced uncertaintyApplication of quality standard as a sales argumentReduced effort for development of proprietary methods
Project DevelopersMake use of best method available for yield analysisSpeed up development and marketing of projectsAssess different technological approaches
INABENSAInstalaciones Abengoa, S.A.
-…
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 10 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Who will benefit from a standard?
ConsultantsIncreased credibilityReduced effort for development of proprietary methods
„Capacity Building“Methods easy to apply for engineersSimplifies start-up of new companies
ResearchEarly comparability of new technological approachesReduce non-research due diligence activities
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 11 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
SolarPACES project guiSmoWorkpackageStructure
WP-2: Structural framework- Quality requirements
- pre-feasibility - project development- acceptance tests
- Solar technologies consid.trough, tower, dish …
- Nomenclature- technical terms- characteristic numbers
- Common framework- definition of sub-systems- definition of interfaces- basic requirements
WP-2: Structural framework- Quality requirements
- pre-feasibility - project development- acceptance tests
- Solar technologies consid.trough, tower, dish …
- Nomenclature- technical terms- characteristic numbers
- Common framework- definition of sub-systems- definition of interfaces- basic requirements
WP-3: Component modeling- Description of physical effects- Modeling approaches- Default parameter sets
WP-3: Component modeling- Description of physical effects- Modeling approaches- Default parameter sets
WP-8: Meteorological input- Interface to SolarPACES tasks- Meteo input data structure- Required temporal resolution
WP-8: Meteorological input- Interface to SolarPACES tasks- Meteo input data structure- Required temporal resolution
WP-4: Operation strategies- Methods to consider OP strat.- Reference OP strategies- Market boundary conditions
WP-4: Operation strategies- Methods to consider OP strat.- Reference OP strategies- Market boundary conditions
WP-9: Validation and Benchmarking- Validation of methods against operational data- Definition of benchmark standards (reference configurations)
WP-9: Validation and Benchmarking- Validation of methods against operational data- Definition of benchmark standards (reference configurations)
WP-1: Coordination - founding of international working group- project definition (objectives, structure, schedule, finance)- official representation of the task
WP-1: Coordination - founding of international working group- project definition (objectives, structure, schedule, finance)- official representation of the task
WP-7: Financial evaluation - Common methods- Collection of methods
WP-7: Financial evaluation - Common methods- Collection of methods
WP-10: Communication infrastructure - WIKI system for day-to-day work- Way of publication for final hand book
WP-10: Communication infrastructure - WIKI system for day-to-day work- Way of publication for final hand book
WP-6: Uncertainties- CSP applicable methods- Relevant inputs
WP-6: Uncertainties- CSP applicable methods- Relevant inputs
WP-5: Transient effects- Methods to tune steady-state
simulations- Default parameters
WP-5: Transient effects- Methods to tune steady-state
simulations- Default parameters
Work in progress
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 12 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Definition of quality levels
Hirsch et al. Standardization of CSP Performance Model Projection-Latest Results from theStamp Project. Proc. ASME Energy Sustainability conference 2011, Washington, D.C.
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 13 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Definition of sub-systems
Input(e.g. DNI)
Output(e.g. Electricity/y)
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 14 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Definition of Sub-Systems
Input(e.g. DNI)
Output(e.g. Electricity/y)
1. Traceability → Transparency2. Reduced complexity → Sub-systems3. User Guidance → Conventions
(interfaces, parameters,…)
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 15 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Definition of Sub-Systems
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 16 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Interfaces between Sub-Systems
fixed inputs:parameters
Results:Characteristic variables
model equations
technology specific
model specific
sub-systemspecific
technology specific
Interface variablessub-systemspecific
model specific
defined bystructuralframework
defined in the individualmodelingwork packages
Data exchange with the other sub-systems only via interface variables
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 17 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Having a common understanding of terms …Example: Azimuth angle
Azimuth angle defines orientation of collector
Various definitions are used today:- Use collector axis or aperture normal
as reference?- Count angle from north or from south?- Different on northern and southern
hemisphere?
A standard is not just a project report!
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 18 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Having a common understanding of terms …Example: Net aperture area
How to define a net aperture area?- Projection of reflective surface into aperture plane
(without gaps between mirror facets)- Shadow of absorber tube to be subtracted?- Directly irradiated side of absorber to be added?
This is a definition for a parabolic trough system but what about …
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 19 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Having a common understanding of terms …Example: Net aperture area
- Projection into horizontal plane, but under whichmirror facet position?
- tracked mirrors for sun in zenith- mirrors looking vertically upwards (virtual!)
- Shadow of receiver on reflective surfacechanges with sun position
- Back side of receiver is not directly irradiated.
Agreement under experts can be easily found for one technology, butit should be consistent with other CSP technologies, too!
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 20 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Giving flexibility to different modelling approachesExample: Heat losses of a PT system
Approach 1:Detailed physical
heat transfer model
Approach 3:Performance curve
for a whole loop
Approach 2:Heat loss curvefor a collector
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 21 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Giving flexibility to different modelling approachesConclusions for the guidelines- What the handbook should provide:
- Clear definition of input and output variables- Definition of important intermediate results - One or more detailed modelling approach(es) including a discussion- Default parameters for modelling approaches (reference for model
comparisons)- Support for quality check
(typical curves, typical errors, benchmark data)
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 22 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Definition of operation strategy
Electricity yield and especially financial revenues are influenced by the operation strategy
One plantconfiguration = One output
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 23 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Definition of operation strategyConclusions for the guidelines- What the handbook should provide:
- Definition for default operation strategies (solar driven, 24 h, …)- Methodology to document alternate operation strategies in a yield
calculation report- Estimation of the difference between operation strategies
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 24 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Uncertainties in parameters and inputs
Sources of uncertainties:- Parameters of components not fixed in early project development- Materials and manufacturing tolerance of components- Uncertainties in operating strategies
Probability density functions- type of distribution?- parameters?
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 25 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Uncertainties in parameters and inputsExample: 64 MW parabolic trough plant in USA
00.1
0.2
0.30.4
0.5
0.60.7
0.8
0.9
1
80,000 90,000 100,000 110,000 120,000Annual Electric generation (MWh/yr)
Cum
ulat
ive
Pro
babi
lity
113,409 MWh/yr(deterministic)
91,150 to 115,550 MWh/yr
90 %
con
fiden
ce
Example by Cliff Ho, SolarPACES task I meeting, Granada, February 22, 2011
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 26 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Uncertainties in parameters and inputsConclusions for the guidelines- Methodology to determine uncertainties is required- Uncertainty distributions of at least the key parameters- Uncertainty distributions of the inputs (especially irradiance data)- Method to estimate the uncertainty of the model itself
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 27 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
SolarPACES project guiSmoWorkpackageStructure
WP-2: Structural framework- Quality requirements
- pre-feasibility - project development- acceptance tests
- Solar technologies consid.trough, tower, dish …
- Nomenclature- technical terms- characteristic numbers
- Common framework- definition of sub-systems- definition of interfaces- basic requirements
WP-2: Structural framework- Quality requirements
- pre-feasibility - project development- acceptance tests
- Solar technologies consid.trough, tower, dish …
- Nomenclature- technical terms- characteristic numbers
- Common framework- definition of sub-systems- definition of interfaces- basic requirements
WP-3: Component modeling- Description of physical effects- Modeling approaches- Default parameter sets
WP-3: Component modeling- Description of physical effects- Modeling approaches- Default parameter sets
WP-8: Meteorological input- Interface to SolarPACES tasks- Meteo input data structure- Required temporal resolution
WP-8: Meteorological input- Interface to SolarPACES tasks- Meteo input data structure- Required temporal resolution
WP-4: Operation strategies- Methods to consider OP strat.- Reference OP strategies- Market boundary conditions
WP-4: Operation strategies- Methods to consider OP strat.- Reference OP strategies- Market boundary conditions
WP-9: Validation and Benchmarking- Validation of methods against operational data- Definition of benchmark standards (reference configurations)
WP-9: Validation and Benchmarking- Validation of methods against operational data- Definition of benchmark standards (reference configurations)
WP-1: Coordination - founding of international working group- project definition (objectives, structure, schedule, finance)- official representation of the task
WP-1: Coordination - founding of international working group- project definition (objectives, structure, schedule, finance)- official representation of the task
WP-7: Financial evaluation - Common methods- Collection of methods
WP-7: Financial evaluation - Common methods- Collection of methods
WP-10: Communication infrastructure - WIKI system for day-to-day work- Way of publication for final hand book
WP-10: Communication infrastructure - WIKI system for day-to-day work- Way of publication for final hand book
WP-6: Uncertainties- CSP applicable methods- Relevant inputs
WP-6: Uncertainties- CSP applicable methods- Relevant inputs
WP-5: Transient effects- Methods to tune steady-state
simulations- Default parameters
WP-5: Transient effects- Methods to tune steady-state
simulations- Default parameters
Work in progress
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 28 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
First a handbook – then a standard
Founding ofInternational
Working Group
Autumn 2010
Handbook of CSP Yield Analysis
1st draft
2014?
InternationalStandards
Beyond 2015Handbook of CSP Yield Analysis
2015?
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 29 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
What is a technical standard?
A technical standard is an established norm or requirement in regard to technical systems. It is usually a formal document that establishes uniform engineering or technical criteria, methods, processes and practices.
A technical standard may be developed privately or unilaterally, for example by a corporation, regulatory body, military, etc. Standards can also be developed by groups such as trade unions, and trade associations. Standards organizations often have more diverse input and usually develop voluntary standards: these might become mandatory if adopted by a government, business contract, etc.
excerpt from wikipedia.org
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 30 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
International standardization bodies
IEC, Geneva
TC 117Solar thermal electric plants
AHG 1 AHG 2 AHG 3
International ElectrotechnicalCommission
ISO, Geneva
International Organisation for Standardization
ITU, Geneva
International Telecommunication Union
e.g. ISO 9001
All issues in the field ofelectro-technics
All issues in the field oftelecommunication
All remaining fields
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 31 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Standardization bodies
Aenor(span. standardization
institution)
IEC*, Geneva
VDE-DKE(german standard. instit.)
CENELEC
TC 117Solar thermal electric plants
AEN/CTN 206Production de energia
electrica
DKE/K 374Solarthermische Anlagen
zur Stromerzeugung
Workinggroup
Workinggroup
AHG 1 AHG 2 AHG 3
Working groups
CLC/SR 117Solar thermal electric plants
International Electrotechnical Commission, „IEC“
Germany „DIN“
e.g. DIN EN ISO 9488 „Solar energy vocabulary“
Spain „UNE“
Working groups
National translations
European Committeefor ElectrotechnicalStandardization „EN“
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 32 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
IEC/TC 117 “Solar thermal electric plants“
Mrs Begoña Barnechea ESMr Chris Flueckiger USMr Matthias Gommel DEMs Lourdes González Martínez ESMr Eckhard Lüpfert DEMr Oliver Mayer DEMr Richard Meyer DEMr Gabriel Morin DEMr Kazuo Shibata JPMr Kazuo YOSHIDA JPMr Eduardo Zarza Moya ES
AHG 1: General subjects
AHG 2: Systems and components
Mr Hagai Aran ILMr Héctor Barroso ESMr Tommy Carlsson SEMr Ehud Epstein ILMr Kazuaki Ezawa JPMr Rami Ezer ILMs Aránzazu Fernández García ESMr Jesús Fernández Reche ESMr Eduardo García Iglesias ESMr Matthias Gommel DEMr Miguel Herrador Moreno ESMr Stefan Hiemer DEMr Eckhard Lüpfert DEMr Gabriel Morin DEMr Kenji Oda JPMr Miguel Palomo ESMs Yafit Zoltak Raz ILMr Frank Rodríguez ESMr Fabienne Sallaberry ESMs Gema San Vicente Domingo ESMr Marcelino Sánchez ESMrs Patricia Santamaria ESMr Enrique Serrano ESMr Kazuo Shibata JPMs Loreto Valenzuela Gutiérrez ESMr Kazuo YOSHIDA JP
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 33 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Co-operation between guiSmo and IEC etc.
TC 117Solar thermal electric plants
AEN/CTN 206Production de energia
electrica
DKE/K 374Solarthermische Anlagen
zur Stromerzeugung
SolarPACESguiSmo
Nationalactivities
Nationalactivities
Liaisons
SolarPACES guiSmo is the scientificexpert group working out proposals.
www.DLR.de/SF • Slide 34 > Modelling and standardization of solar thermal power plants > Tobias Hirsch > May 16, 2013
Standards for electricity yield calculationsSummary and conclusions
- Elaborate technologies require standards- Yield estimation for CSP plants is key aspect in project development- Guidelines or standards are required by the different players- SolarPACES guiSmo is the starting point for activities in this field- Standardization organizations are open for new proposals
- There is a lot of work ahead …