Modeling the Impacts of Climate Change and Restoration on Chinook

Salmon in the Snohomish Basin

NOAA

Matthew Wiley James BattinElizabeth Korb Krista BartzRichard Palmer Hiroo Imaki

Mary Ruckelshaus

December 6, 2005

Project Objectives

Examine effects of planned large-scale restoration actions.

Assess how climate change affects Chinook salmon populations

Investigate interactions between climate effects and restoration

Presentation Overview

Climate Change Experimental Design Results

Climate Impacts Land Use Impacts Chinook Salmon Impacts

Conclusions

Why Forecast Climate Change Impacts?

The future ain't what it used to be.

Evidence of Climate Change

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) “The Earth’s climate system has demonstrably

changed on both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era, with some of these changes attributable to human activities.” (IPCC2001, Synthesis report, Summary for Policy Makers)

• “Globally it is very likely that the 1990s were the warmest decade and 1998 the warmest year in the instrumental record (1891-2001).”

Evidence of Climate Change

Trends in total seasonal precipitation (1949-2002)

-80.0

-60.0

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0K

ent

Eve

rett

Mo

nro

e

Sta

rtu

p

Sea

Tac

Sn

oq

ual

mie

Lan

dsb

urg

Dar

rin

gto

n

McM

illi

n

Bu

ckle

y

Pal

mer

Mu

dM

t

Ced

ar

Lo

ng

mir

e

Sta

mp

ede

Par

adis

e

Rat

e o

f ch

ang

e in

mm

per

dec

ade

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

stat

ion

ele

vati

on

(m

)

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Seasonal trends – by station

Trends in average daily temperature (1949-2002)

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Ken

t

Eve

rett

Mo

nro

e

Sta

rtu

p

Sea

Tac

Sn

oq

ual

mie

Lan

dsb

urg

Dar

rin

gto

n

McM

illi

n

Bu

ckle

y

Pal

mer

Mu

dM

t

Ced

ar

Lo

ng

mir

e

Sta

mp

ede

Par

adis

e

Rat

e o

f ch

ang

e in

deg

rees

(C)

per

dec

ade

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

stat

ion

ele

vati

on

(m

)

Winter

Spring

Summer

Autumn

Experimental Design

Climate Model(GFDL, Hadley)

Hydrology Model(DHSVM)

Air Temp., Meteorology

Salmon Pop. Model(SHIRAZ)

Stream flow, Temp.

Salmon Abundance

Land Cover & Land Form

Data

PredictedAtmospheric

CO2

Habitat Capacity

Climate Model(GFDL, Hadley)

Hydrology Model(DHSVM)

Air Temp., Meteorology

Salmon Pop. Model(SHIRAZ)

Stream flow, Temp.

Salmon Abundance

Land Cover & Land Form

Data

PredictedAtmospheric

CO2

Habitat Capacity

HistoricCurrent BAU Restoration Current BAU Restoration

2050 X X X X X X2025 X X X X X X2000 X X X

GFDLHadley15 land use and climate scenarios

GCM Scenarios

The two scenarios used in this study are from the IPCC’s 2001 Third Assessment Report (TAR)

The Climate Impacts Group has recently started using new high, medium, and low scenarios that will be a part of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)

How do the scenarios used in this work compare to the “new” scenarios?

Annual Average Temperature at Snoqualmie Falls

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

De

gre

es

(C

)

GFDL_A2 (TAR)

HadCM3_A2 (TAR)

ECHAM5_A2 (AR4)

IPSL_A2 (AR4)

GISS_B1 (AR4)

Annual Precipitation at Snoqualmie Falls

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

To

tal P

rec

ipit

ati

on

(m

)GFDL_A2 (TAR)

HadCM3_A2 (TAR)

ECHAM5_A2 (AR4)

IPSL_A2 (AR4)

GISS_B1 (AR4)

• GFDL and HadCM3 are roughly comparable and middle of the road in terms of temperature.

• GFDL tends toward ‘wetter’; HadCM3 tends toward ‘drier’.

• SHIRAz results appear to be more sensitive to the monthly distribution of precipitation than to annual totals.

For 2025 and 2050 periods used for analysis…

Experimental Design: Hydrology Model

Driven by meteorology from GCM output and simulate streamflow and temperature

Developed for use in the mountainous watersheds of the Pacific Northwest

150 meter resolution, 3-hour timestep 3 models

Modifications and improvements Groundwater and

temperature model

DHSVM Layers

DHSVM

3.7%

12.0

%

21.7

%

7.2%

0.8% 3.

0%

1.4%

1.2%

0.0%

34.4

%

14.4

%

0.2%3.

7%

12.0

%

23.5

%

7.3%

0.8%

5.4%

1.5%

1.2%

0.0%

31.9

%

12.6

%

0.2%3.

6%

11.9

%

15.0

%

7.2%

0.7% 3.

6%

1.5%

1.2%

0.0%

39.3

%

15.8

%

0.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Deci.

Broad

leaf

Mixe

d For

est

Open

Shrub

Grass

land

Cropl

and

Bare

Urban

Wat

er

Xeric

Conife

r

Mes

ic Con

ifer

Subalp

. Con

ifer

Ice

Pe

rce

nt l

an

dco

ver

typ

e

2001: Reference

2025: CurrentPath

2025: Restoration

Restoration3.

7%

12.0

%

21.7

%

7.2%

0.8% 3.

0%

1.4%

1.2%

0.0%

34.4

%

14.4

%

0.2%3.

7%

12.0

%

23.5

%

7.3%

0.8%

5.4%

1.5%

1.2%

0.0%

31.9

%

12.6

%

0.2%3.

6%

11.9

%

15.0

%

7.2%

0.7% 3.

6%

1.5%

1.2%

0.0%

39.3

%

15.8

%

0.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Deci.

Broad

leaf

Mixe

d For

est

Open

Shrub

Grass

land

Cropl

and

Bare

Urban

Wat

er

Xeric

Conife

r

Mes

ic Con

ifer

Subalp

. Con

ifer

Ice

Pe

rce

nt l

an

dco

ver

typ

e

2001: Reference

2025: CurrentPath

2025: Restoration

Restoration

Experimental Design: Land Use Scenarios

SHIRAZ

Relates changes in environment to changes in salmon population size via:

--Capacity --Survival

Life-history-based Spatially explicit Stochastic Stage-structured

Habitat Effects in SHIRAZ

Egg-to-juv Survivalpeak flowstemperature

Juv. Rearing Capacitystream gradient

stream widthriparian condition

Spawning Capacitystream gradient

stream widthriparian condition

Egg

Juvenile

Adult

Pre-spawning Survivaltemperature

Stochastic Variation in Ocean Survival

Accounting for Uncertainty and Variability

DHSVM: Constructs a series of 72 representative years for a given scenario using the historical pattern of climate variability as a template.

SHIRAZ: Samples from 72-yr DHSVM time series to produce 500 possible 100-year-long population trajectories.

Accounting for Uncertainty and Variability

Year

Ab

un

dan

ce

Target

Low abundance threshold

0 100

What We Are Modeling

Effects of large-scale land use and climate change on stream temperature and flow in the subbasins with least development and most chinook.

Resulting effects on adult and juvenile salmon.

What We Aren’t Modeling

Climate effects on ocean conditions Climate & restoration effects on

sediment Climate effects on land cover Behavioral/adaptive response of

salmon Highly urbanized subbasins Small-scale effects: refugia, riparian

planting

Results

Impacts of climate change Meteorology

air temperature and precipitation

Hydrology average, peak, and low flow and stream temperature

Impacts of land use change Hydrology

average, peak, and low flow and temperature

Impacts on Chinook populations

Changes Due to Climate

Climate Impacts- Air Temperature

Impacts to average monthly temperature, Snoqualmie Meteorological Station

GFDL Hadley

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Ch

ang

e in

Tem

per

atu

re (

C)

2025 2050

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Ch

ang

e in

Tem

per

atu

re (

C)

2025 2050

2025- 0.9° C 2050- 1.4° C

2025- 0.7° C 2050- 1.1° C

Climate Impacts- Precipitation

Impacts to average monthly precipitation, Snoqualmie Meteorological Station

GFDL Hadley

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Av

g.

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

2000 2025 2050

-80-60-40-20

020406080

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Ch

an

ge

in

Pre

cip

. (m

m)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

% C

ha

ng

e

2025 2050 2025% 2050%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Av

g.

Pre

cip

ita

tio

n (

mm

)

2000 2025 2050

-80-60-40-20

020406080

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

MonthC

ha

ng

e i

n P

rec

ip.

(mm

)

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

% C

ha

ng

e

2025 2050 2025% 2050%

Hydrologic Impacts- Monthly Flow

Impacts to average annual streamflow

Snoqualmie Skykomish

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Str

ea

mfl

ow

(c

fs)

2000 2025 2050

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Str

ea

mfl

ow

(c

fs)

2000 2025 2050

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Ch

an

ge

in

Str

ea

mfl

ow

2000 2025 2050

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

MonthC

ha

ng

e i

n S

tre

am

flo

w

2000 2025 2050

Hydrologic Impacts- Peak Flow

Incubation peak flow-maximum instantaneous flow between Sept. 15th and Feb. 15th

GFDL

Hadley

2025 2050

Hydrologic Impacts- Low Flow

Minimum spawning flow- lowest instantaneous flow between Sept. 15th and Nov. 15th

GFDL

Hadley

2025 2050

Hydrologic Impacts- Water Temperature

Average monthly stream temperature

Snoqualmie RiverSkykomish River

02468

10121416

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Str

eam

Te

mp

era

ture

(C

)

2000 2025 2050

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Octobe

r

Novem

ber

Decem

ber

Janu

ary

Febru

ary

Mar

chApr

ilM

ayJu

ne July

Augus

t

Septe

mbe

r

Month

Str

eam

Te

mp

era

ture

(C

)

2000 2025 2050

Avg. Summer Change 2025- 1.2° C Avg. Summer Change 2050- 2.3° CAvg. Winter Change 2025- 0.5° C Avg. Winter Change 2050- 0.8° C

Hydrologic Impacts- Water Temperature

Pre-spawning temperature- mean of daily maximum temperatures for July 15th – Oct. 15th

GFDL

Hadley

2025 2050

Changes Due to Land Use

Hydrologic Impacts- Peak Flow

Incubation peak flow-maximum instantaneous flow between Sept. 15th and Feb. 15th

Current Path Restoration

GFDL

Hadley

Hydrologic Impacts- Low Flow

Minimum spawning flow- lowest instantaneous flow between Sept. 15th and Nov. 15th

Current Path Restoration

GFDL

Hadley

Hydrologic Impacts- Water Temperature

Pre-spawning temperature- mean of daily maximum temperatures between

Jul. 15th and Oct. 15th

Current Path Restoration

GFDL

Hadley

Impacts on Chinook Populations

Chinook Population Impacts- Summary

SHIRAz scenarios are evaluated three ways 1. mean spawner population size across the

Snohomish River basin2. percent of runs falling below 2,800 spawner

threshold set in harvest management plan3. spatial distribution of spawners by subbasin

Chinook Population Impacts-GFDL

Mean population of wild spawners and percent falling below the threshold in GFDL Model

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2025 2050

Year

# S

paw

ner

s

no restoration restoration

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2025 2050

Year

% o

f R

un

s B

elo

w T

hre

sho

ld

no restoration restoration

Chinook Population Impacts-Hadley

Mean population of wild spawners and percent falling below the threshold in Hadley Model

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2025 2050

Year

% o

f R

un

s B

elo

w T

hre

sh

old

no restoration restoration

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2025 2050

Year

# S

paw

ner

s

no restoration restoration

Chinook Population Impacts-2025

Spatial distribution of changes to mean wild spawners due to 2025 climate AND land Use

Current Path Restoration

GFDL

Hadley

Chinook Population Impacts-2050

Spatial distribution of changes to mean wild spawners due to 2050 climate AND land use

Current Path Restoration

GFDL

Hadley

Conclusions

Climate Impacts Temperatures expected to rise in all months Shift in annual precipitation,

GFDL- more in winter less in summer Hadley- less in most months

Hydrologic Timing shift, increasing winter peaks and less

pronounced spring peaks Earlier spring runoff Reduction in summer streamflow volumes

Conclusions

Salmon Impacts 15-39% reduction in average Chinook

numbers in the absence of restoration.

5-23% reduction in average Chinook numbers with restoration.

Climate change is likely to decrease our ability to reach salmon population targets.

Chinook Population Impacts- GFDL

Upland versus lowland basin effects

Wild versus hatchery fish effects

0

20

40

60

80

100

2000 2025 2050

Year

% o

f S

pa

wn

ers

Lowland Upand

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

2000 2025 2050

Year

# S

paw

ner

s

wild hatchery

Intro > Climate Change > Experimental Design > Results > Climate > Land Use > Chinook Populations > Conclusions