modeling subsurface heterogeneity by coupled markov chains: directional dependency, walther’s law...

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Page 1: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy
Page 2: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Theory of Forward MC: FMC

-1 -2 -3 0

-1

Pr( | , , ,..., )Pr( | ) : ,

i i i ik l n ar

i ik l lk

S S S S SZ Z Z Z Z pS SZ Z

SS S

i0 1 i+ 1i-1 N2

l k qdSSaN -1

S rSb

Page 3: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Theory of Backward MC: BMC

1Pr( | ).i il kkl

S SZ Zp

lkp klp

SS S

i0 1 i+ 1i-1 N2

l k qdSSaN -1

S rSb

Page 4: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Conditioning FMC (Elfeki and Dekking 2001)

( 1)

1 0 ( ): Pr ( ) ,N

ab bqNb a qab q N

aq

p pp | , S S SZ Z Z

p

SS S

i0 1 i+ 1i-1 N2

l k qdSSaN -1

S rSb

Page 5: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Conditioning BMC

1 0Pr ( ).N Nr q aqr a | , SS SZ Z Zp

1 01 0

0

Pr( , )Pr ( ) .

Pr ( )N Nr q a

N Nr q aqr aN q a

, SS SZ Z Z | , S S SZ Z Zp , SSZ Z

1 0

1 0 1 0 0

0 0

Pr ( )

Pr ( ).Pr ( ).Pr( ).

Pr ( ).Pr( )

N Nr q aqr a

N N Nq r ra a a

N q a a

| , SS SZ Z Zp

| , S | S SS S SZ Z Z Z Z Z | S SSZ Z Z

SS S

i0 1 i+ 1i-1 N2

l k qdSSaN -1

S rSb

Page 6: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Conditioning BMC (cont.)

1 0

( 1)1 1 0

( )0

Pr ( )

Pr ( ).Pr ( ),

Pr ( )

N Nr q aqr a

NN N Nq r r rq ara

NN q a aq

| , SS SZ Z Zp

p p | | SS S SZ Z Z Z | S pSZ Z

SS S

i0 1 i+ 1i-1 N2

l k qdSSaN -1

S rSb

Page 7: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Coupling and Conditioning Two One-dimensional Markov Chains on

a Lattice System (CMC method)

Page 8: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

.,...1,

),,|Pr(:

)(

)(

,1,,1,,

nkp . p . p

p .p . p

SZSZSZSZp

f

vmf

iNhfq

hlf

vmk

iNhkq

hlk

qjNmjiljikjiqklm

x

x

x

Dark Grey (Boundary Cells)Light Grey (Previously Generated Cells)W hite (Unknown Cells)

i-1 ,j i,ji,j-1

1 ,1

N x ,N y

N x ,1

1 ,N y

N x ,j

Page 9: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

, 1, , 1 0,,

( )

( )

: Pr( | , , )

, 1,..., .

i j k i j d i j m j adm k a

h h i vkd ak mk

h h i vfd of mf

f

p Z S Z S Z S Z S

. . p p pk n

. . p p p

Coupled Markov Chain for Backward Conditioning on the Left Boundary.

i+ 1 ,ji,ji,j-1

1 ,1

N x ,N y

N x ,1

1 ,N y

N x ,j

Coupled M arkov Chain for Forward Conditioning on the Right Boundary.

i-1 ,j i,ji,j-1

1 ,1

N x ,N y

N x ,1

1 ,N y

N x ,j1 ,j

1 ,j

------------------>

------------------<

Page 10: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Methods of Implementation FCMC, BCMC and FBCMC

? >? >

?< ?<

? > ?<

Forward M arkov Chain M odel (two forward steps)

Backw ard M arkov Chain M ode l (tw o backward steps)

Forward-Backward M arkov Chain M odel (one forward step and one backward step)

W ell (1) W ell (2) W ell (1) W ell (2)

Page 11: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Procedure for Extracting a Final Geological Image

 

.0

1)(

otherwise

SZifZI

kij

ijk

MC

R

Rk

kR

kij ji

ji ZIMCMC

SZ

1

)()(

,

, 1}{#

}...,,max{ 21 nijijij

lij

Let the realizations be numbered 1,…, MC, and let Zij (R) be the

lithology of cell (i,j) in the Rth realization. The empirical relative frequency of lithology Sk at cell (i,j) is:

In the final image Z* the lithology at cell (i, j) will be the lithology which occurs most frequently in the MC realizations. So, if Sl is such that

Zij*= Sl.

Page 12: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Sensitivity Analysis

• Various sampling intervals.• Various horizontal transition probability matrices.• Various degrees of diagonal dominancy of the horizontal

transition matrix.• Use of Walther’s law to account for horizontal variability.• Effect of conditioning on the model performance.• Sensitivity of the Monte Carlo realizations.• Various implementation strategies: forward, backward and

forward-backward methods.• Use of cross validation to evaluate the model performance.

Page 13: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Case Studies

• Case study no. 1 (Afsluitdijk-Lemmer), NL• Case study no. 2 (Casparde Roblesdijk part

of Waddenzeedijken,), NL• Case study no. 3 (The Delaware river and

its underlying aquifer system in the vicinity of the Camden metroplitan area, New Jersey)

Page 14: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Case study no. 1 (Afsluitdijk-Lemmer), NL

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0- 2 0

- 1 0

0

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0

- 1 0

0

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0

- 1 0

0

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0

- 1 0

0

1 2 3 4 5 6

A

B

C

Page 15: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Extracting a Final Image

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

1 2 3 4 5 60

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

- 1 0

0

1

- 1 0

0

2

- 1 0

0

3

- 1 0

0

4

- 1 0

0

5

- 1 0

0

6

Page 16: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Stability of Monte Carlo

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0- 2 0

- 1 0

0

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0- 2 0

- 1 0

0

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0- 2 0

- 1 0

0

1 2 3 4 5 6

Results of 30 R ealiza tions

Resu lts of 100 R ealizations0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

Results of 5 Realizations

0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0- 2 0

- 1 0

0

Results of 10 R ealizations0 2 0 0 4 0 0 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 1 4 0 0 1 6 0 0

- 2 0

- 1 0

0

Results of 1000 Realiza tions

Page 17: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600-15

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600-15

-10

-5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=10m

dx=40m

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=20m

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=5m

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

dx=2.5m

Influence of Sampling Interval in Horizontal

Page 18: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600-15

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600-15

-10

-5

0

1 2 3 4 5 6

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=10m

dx=40m

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=20m

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=5m

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1

dx=2.5m

E m pirica l Entropy States C oding

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=2.5m

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

dx=5m0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

-10

-5

0

Application of the Concept of Walter’s Law

Page 19: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

Case study no. 2 (Casparde Roblesdijk part of

Waddenzeedijken,), NL

Page 20: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13

Lithology C odingEntropy M easure

Page 21: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

dx =10 m

dx =20 m

dx =100 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

dx =40 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

dx = 5 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

Influence of Sampling Interval in Horizontal

Page 22: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

a

b

c

d

e

f

No. of Boreholes

Page 23: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

Page 24: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11dx =10 m

dx =20 m

dx =100 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

dx =40 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

Page 25: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

dx =10 m

dx =20 m

dx =100 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

dx =40 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

Page 26: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11dx =10 m

dx =20 m

dx =100 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

dx =40 m

0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0

- 1 5- 1 0

- 50

Page 27: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

C ondition ing Boreholes

G enerated F inal Im ages

Boreholes for C ross-Validation

S im ula ted B oreholes from F ina l Im ages

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.75

Page 28: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

C ondition ing Boreholes

G enerated F inal Im ages

Boreholes for C ross-Validation

S im ula ted B oreholes from F ina l Im ages

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 0.25 0.5 0.75 1 1.25 1.5 1.751 2 3 4 5 6 7

Page 29: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

Condition ing Boreho les

G enerated F inal Im ages

Boreholes for C ross-Validation

S im ulated Boreho les from F ina l Im ages

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

Page 30: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 400 feet

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Forw ard-Backw ard M odel

Fully Backward M odel

Fully Forw ard M odel

Page 31: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1234567

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 400 feetForw ard-Backw ard M odel

Fully Backw ard M odel

Fully Forw ard M odel

Page 32: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 80 feet

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

Page 33: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 280 feet

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Page 34: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

70 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 280 feet

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Fully Forward M odel

Fully Backward M odel

Forward-Backw ard M odel

Page 35: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1234567

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 280 feet

Fully Forw ard M odel

Fully Backw ard M odel

Forward-Backw ard M odel

Page 36: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

70 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 80 feet

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Fully Forward M odel

Fully Backward M odel

Forw ard-Backward M odel

Page 37: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

70 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

e0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 280 feet

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

Forw ard M odel

Backw ard M odel

Forw ard-Backw ard M odel

Page 38: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

a

b

c

d

e

f

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

pii = 0 .603

pii= 0.699

p ii = 0.801

pii = 0.908

0

0.25

0.5

0 .75

1

1.25

1.5

1 .75

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

pii = 0.986

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Page 39: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

a

b

c

d

e

f

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

pii = 0 .603

pii= 0.699

p ii = 0.801

pii = 0.908

0

0.25

0.5

0 .75

1

1.25

1.5

1 .75

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

pii = 0.986

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Page 40: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

a

b

c

e

d

e

f

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 40 feet

dx = 80 fee t

dx = 280 feet

dx = 400 feet

Page 41: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

12345670 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

a

b

c

e

d

e

f

dx = 40 feet

dx = 80 feet

dx = 280 feet

dx = 400 feet

Page 42: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

a

b

e0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

c

d

e

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

dx = 100 feet

dx = 200 feet

dx = 400 feet

dx = 800 fee t

0

0.25

0.5

0.75

1

1.25

1.5

1.75

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Page 43: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

a

b

e0 5 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 4 5 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0

- 3 0 0- 2 0 0- 1 0 0

0

c

d

e

dx = 100 feet

dx = 200 feet

dx = 400 feet

dx = 800 feet

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Page 44: Modeling Subsurface Heterogeneity by Coupled Markov Chains: Directional Dependency, Walther’s Law and Entropy

0 4000 8000 12000 16000O verall H orizonta l F ie ld Scale (m eters)

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

dy/d

x

Afsluitd ijk- Lem m er (Netherlands)A fs luitd ijk C aspar de R oblesdijk (N etherlands)D elaware R ive r Aquife r (Long itud ina l-Section), USAD elaware R ive r Aquife r (C ross-Section),US AM AD E site a t Co lum bus, M ississ ipp i [E lfeki and R a jabian i, 2002]