modeling sea level rise in the hudson river estuary
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8/11/2019 Modeling Sea Level Rise in the Hudson River Estuary
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Goals for EffortGoals for Effort Allow public to see river stages over time that resultAllow public to see river stages over time that result
from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, seafrom different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sea Allow public to see river stages over time that resultAllow public to see river stages over time that result
from different combinations of tide, tributary flows, seafrom different combinations of tide, tributary flows, sealevel rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,and the relative contribution of each.and the relative contribution of each.
Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofProvide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withdifferent climatedifferent climate--change scenarios.change scenarios.
level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,level rise, storm surge, wind, channel modifications,and the relative contribution of each.and the relative contribution of each.
Provide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofProvide planning studies with reasonable estimates ofpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withpossible water levels in the Hudson estuary withdifferent climatedifferent climate--change scenarios.change scenarios.
Allow investigation of value of improved data related toAllow investigation of value of improved data related tobathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channelbathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel
characteristics and tributary flows.characteristics and tributary flows.
Allow investigation of value of improved data related toAllow investigation of value of improved data related tobathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channelbathymetry, land elevation, hydraulic channel
characteristics and tributary flows.characteristics and tributary flows.
HudsonRiver
HudsonRiver
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif
NWS Forecasts for AlbanyNWS Forecasts for Albany
http://newweb.erh.noaa.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=aly&gage=albn6&view=1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0
HistoricalStage and
Flow
HistoricalStage and
Flow
What would theseWhat would theselook like under
different climatechange scenarios?
look like under
different climatechange scenarios?
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Illustrative Model OutputIllustrative Model Output
Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 01 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 01 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 02 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 02 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 03 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 03 hr
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Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 04 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 04 hr
Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 05 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 05 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 06 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 06 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 07 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 07 hr
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Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 08 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 08 hr
Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 09 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 09 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 10 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 10 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 11 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 11 hr
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Illustrative Model OutputIllustrative Model Output
Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 01 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 01 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 02 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 02 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 03 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 03 hr
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Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 04 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 04 hr
Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 05 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 05 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 06 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 06 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 07 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 07 hr
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Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 08 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 08 hr
Water Prof ile - Base Case, t = 09 hrWater Prof ile - Base Case, t = 09 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 10 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 10 hr
Water Profile - Base Case, t = 11 hrWater Profile - Base Case, t = 11 hr
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Water Profile - QuestionWater Profile - Question
How can a 5 foot t ideHow can a 5 foot t ide
at the Battery t ravel 150 miles
to Albany and still be
be a 5 foot tide, 6 hrs later,
at the Battery t ravel 150 miles
to Albany and still be
be a 5 foot tide, 6 hrs later,
to resistance?
to resistance?
HudsonRiver
HudsonRiver
Troy 600 ft 6 ft
N. Albany 900 ft 17 ft
S. Albany 1100 ft30 ft
PK 2,400 ft 50 ft
Battery 4,500 ft 35 ft
http://ny.water.usgs.gov/projects/dialer_plots/hsfloc.gif
Water Prof ile - Max/MinWater Prof ile - Max/Min
Max&MinWaterSurface
15
5
5
15
25
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
35
25
Distance fromBattery,
lowestchannelelevationmaximumelevation minimumelevat
Profile - Max/Min High/Low FlowsProfile - Max/Min High/Low Flows
25
15
5
5
15
0 100000 200000 300000 400000 500000 600000 700000 800000
35
25
DistancefromBattery,NY(f
lowflowmax lowflowmin highflowmax highflowmin channelbottomelevation
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Profile Upper Estuary -Max/Min High/Low FlowsProfile Upper Estuary -
Max/Min High/Low Flows
25
15
5
5
15
6 00 00 0 6 20 00 0 6 40 00 0 6 60 00 0 6 80 00 0 7 00 00 0 7 20 00 0 7 40 00 0 7 60 00 0 7 80 00 0 8 00 00 0
35
25
DistancefromBattery,N
lowflowmax lowflowmin highflowmax highflowm in c ha nn elbottomelevati
Castleton-on-Hudson
Flows only affect estuary stage above Castleton-on-Hudson.
Profile - Max/Min for SLR 0-2-4 ftProfile - Max/Min for SLR 0-2-4 ft
TidalSwingRange(maxminwatersurfaceelevatio
3
4
5
6
7
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
D stancefromBattery,NY m l
channelbottom 0ftsealevelrisetidalswingran
2ftsealevelrisetidalswingr ange 4ftsealevelrisetidalswing
Tides have 12 hour period - amplitude varies over estuary.
Profile - Max/Min - Storm SurgeProfile - Max/Min - Storm Surge
15
25
25
15
5
5
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
35
DistancefromBattery,
stormsurgem ax st or msurgem in c ha nn elbottomeleva
Storm surge is a long wave lasting 1-2 days - no variation.
Key FindingsKey Findings1. What information does one team need from another to complete
their work: NONE1. What information does one team need from another to complete
their work: NONE
2. What assumptions do we need to make explicit and to make surewe are in agreement as to those judgments/choices: Using currentgeometry of river as fixed, with same channel independent of SLR.
3. Remaining work to do: Model mostly running. Defining scenarios.Need to develop form of presentation vehicle, and see if it works forpublic.
4. What will your final product include in terms of content: Expect final
2. What assumptions do we need to make explicit and to make surewe are in agreement as to those judgments/choices: Using currentgeometry of river as fixed, with same channel independent of SLR.
3. Remaining work to do: Model mostly running. Defining scenarios.Need to develop form of presentation vehicle, and see if it works forpublic.
4. What will your final product include in terms of content: Expect finalproduct by end of the year. Web based tutorial showing how keyfactors (tides, flows, SLR) interact to determine Estuary stages.
5. Interactions needed in next 6 months to link work across projects:Look for feed back of effectiveness of presentation.
product by end of the year. Web based tutorial showing how keyfactors (tides, flows, SLR) interact to determine Estuary stages.
5. Interactions needed in next 6 months to link work across projects:Look for feed back of effectiveness of presentation.